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2021-12-22

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Is Rivian Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?<blockquote>Rivian股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote>

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However, we don't think investors should be overly worried.</li> <li>We discuss why we think RIVN stock is a Buy now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69bdd77748b1c27c695aff2846bb30c6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>自上次中性看涨期权以来，Rivian股价已下跌超过 25%。</li><li>该公司在第三季度收益看涨期权中报告称，产量目标略有低于预期。不过，我们认为投资者不必过度担心。</li><li>我们讨论为什么我们认为 RIVN 股票现在值得买入。</li></ul>迈克尔·M·圣地亚哥/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) recently released its first earnings reports for FQ3'21 as a public company. Notably, the company missed its 1,200 vehicle production target by \"a few hundred vehicles.\" However, we weren't surprised, given the current supply chain bottlenecks and the challenges in ramping production. Moreover, we don't think investors should be unduly concerned about its short-term production goal. Management was clear as it emphasized that its long-term production targets remain unaffected.<blockquote>Rivian汽车公司 (RIVN) 最近作为上市公司发布了 2021 年第三季度的第一份收益报告。值得注意的是，该公司距离 1,200 辆汽车的产量目标差了“几百辆”。然而，考虑到当前的供应链瓶颈和提高产量的挑战，我们并不感到惊讶。此外，我们认为投资者不应过度担心其短期生产目标。管理层明确强调其长期生产目标不受影响。</blockquote> Nevertheless, we believe that ramping production successfully will continue to be a key hurdle facing CEO RJ Scaringe &amp; Co. Investors sent the stock tumbling after its earnings report, which we believe the market took the opportunity to pare down risk. After all, RIVN stock had traded at an incredible market cap of $112.8B&nbsp;when we wrote our previous article. Following the recent sell-off, Rivian's market cap has dropped to $88B. Therefore, we believe it's an appropriate time to revisit our thesis on RIVN stock post-FQ3 earnings.<blockquote>尽管如此，我们相信成功提高产量仍将是首席执行官 RJ Scaringe &amp; Co. 面临的主要障碍。投资者在财报发布后导致该股暴跌，我们认为市场借此机会降低了风险。毕竟，当我们撰写上一篇文章时，RIVN 股票的市值达到了令人难以置信的 $112.8B。继最近的抛售之后，Rivian 的市值已降至 $88B。因此，我们认为现在是重新审视我们关于 RIVN 股票第三季度后收益的论点的合适时机。</blockquote> We also discuss why we think the stock seems fairly valued now.<blockquote>我们还讨论了为什么我们认为该股票现在的估值似乎合理。</blockquote> Rivian Market Cap Trend<blockquote>Rivian市值趋势</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a528b02874c529215e0428c40adc5ad1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">RIVN market cap analysis (as of 17 December'21).<blockquote>RIVN市值分析（截至21年12月17日）。</blockquote> Readers can quickly glean that Rivian's market cap has dropped dramatically back to where it started life as a public company. It last registered a market cap of $88B, while it began trading with a market cap of $83.6B in early November.<blockquote>读者很快就会发现，Rivian 的市值已大幅回落至其作为上市公司的起点。它最后一次注册的市值为 88B 美元，而它在 11 月初开始交易的市值为 83.6B 美元。</blockquote> Nevertheless, Rivian's market cap still exceeded Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) market cap even as it just started making deliveries in September. Some investors find it incredulous that a company that hasn't even ramped production could be worth more than both the US auto leaders.<blockquote>尽管如此，Rivian 的市值仍然超过了福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 的市值，尽管它在 9 月份才开始交付。一些投资者觉得难以置信，一家甚至没有提高产量的公司竟然比两家美国汽车巨头的价值还要高。</blockquote> Why We Think Rivian Investors Remain Optimistic Post-FQ3<blockquote>为什么我们认为Rivian投资者在第三季度后保持乐观</blockquote> Rivian's report card wasn't a disaster, even if the company missed its production guidance for 2021. CEO RJ Scaringe offered assurances as he emphasized (edited):<blockquote>Rivian 的成绩单并不是一场灾难，即使该公司错过了 2021 年的生产指导。首席执行官 RJ Scaringe 提供了保证，他强调（编辑）：</blockquote> For 2021, we expect to produce a few hundred vehicles short of our initial 1,200 vehicle production target. We do not believe any of our supply chain challenges represent long-term systemic issues. We remain well-positioned to capture and drive the accelerated large-scale adoption of sustainable transportation. However, a small number of suppliers or small number of components may be ramping a little slower, creating constraints or bottlenecks. Those challenges have been really a focal point for us over the last two and a half, three months. But, these issues are short-term in nature and they are solvable problems. So, we don't see any long-term systemic challenges associated with ramping the supply chain. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call) <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ec61d947f0a1da5f4d5883a8941a7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Rivian planned production capacity and delivery consensus estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ, Barron's<blockquote>2021年，我们预计生产几百辆汽车，低于最初 1,200 辆汽车的生产目标我们不认为我们的任何供应链挑战代表长期的系统性问题。我们仍然处于有利地位，能够抓住和推动可持续交通的加速大规模采用。然而，少数供应商或少数组件的速度可能会稍微慢一些，从而造成限制或瓶颈。在过去的两个半月到三个月里，这些挑战确实是我们关注的焦点。但是，这些问题本质上是短期的，是可以解决的问题因此，我们看不到任何与提升供应链相关的长期系统性挑战。（Rivian 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）Rivian计划产能和交付共识估计。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ、巴伦周刊</blockquote> Rivian telegraphed that it would be commencing its new Georgia production facility in mid'22 and ready to begin production from 2024. Georgia's planned annual run rate is estimated at 400K. Therefore, it would afford Rivian a collective annual production capacity of 600K if we include its Illinois facility. Nevertheless, the company did not specify how long it would take to ramp production to its planned capacity. However, consensus estimates point to a relatively positive ramp through FY25. As a result, Rivian is estimated to deliver about 40K of vehicles in FY22. However, it would reach the 360K milestone by FY25, registering an estimated delivery CAGR of 108%. Its 360K estimate includes the 100K EDV orders from its exclusive last-mile delivery partner and cornerstone investor Amazon (AMZN).<blockquote>Rivian电报称，该公司将于 2022 年中期在佐治亚州启动新的生产设施，并准备从 2024 年开始生产。佐治亚州的计划年运行率估计为40万。因此，如果算上伊利诺伊州工厂，Rivian的年产能将达到 60 万辆。不过，该公司没有具体说明将产量提高到计划产能需要多长时间。然而，共识估计表明，2025 财年将出现相对积极的增长。因此，Rivian预计将在 2022 财年交付约 4 万辆汽车。然而，到 25 财年，它将达到 36 万辆的里程碑，预计交付复合年增长率为 108%。其 36 万份估计包括来自其独家最后一英里配送合作伙伴和基石投资者亚马逊 (AMZN) 的 10 万份 EDV 订单。</blockquote> There's little doubt that the delivery cadence estimates look very aggressive. But, if done well, it's also not impossible. Keen investors should recall that Tesla (TSLA) took just two years to ramp Giga Shanghai from zero to its current 600K annual run rate. It has even recently made new investments to enhance its production capacity further. Rivian also seems highly confident that they can ramp successfully, as CEO RJ Scaringe emphasized (edited):<blockquote>毫无疑问，交付节奏的估计看起来非常激进。但是，如果做得好，这也不是不可能的。敏锐的投资者应该还记得，特斯拉 (TSLA) 仅用了两年时间就将 Giga Shanghai 从零提高到目前 60 万辆的年运行率。它最近甚至进行了新的投资，以进一步提高其产能。正如首席执行官 RJ Scaringe 强调的那样，Rivian似乎也对他们能够成功实现增长充满信心（编辑）：</blockquote> We've architected the product development to be capable of running more than one program and launching more than one program at once, but also to have those fast feedback loops between the different programs. So with that, the commercial van has actually learned a lot from the R1 platform and the R1 platform launch. What you see in terms of the facility in Georgia, is key for us from an expansion point of view. We're quite confident in the path ahead. All three of our vehicles have been certified for sale and they're being produced on two different production lines. The organization was architected to facilitate running and operating multiple programs at the same time. And so as we now look at what the ramp will look like for both R1T and R1S into next year, it really positions us to rapidly grow through the course of 2022. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call) While it's still early, Rivian investors are undoubtedly confident that the company can deliver on its production cadence to meet its delivery milestones. The company is not facing a demand issue compared to short-term supply constraints. They updated that R1 orders have climbed to 71K from 55K in the previous update. Nevertheless, these are cancelable orders, as their delivery timeline has been stretched to 2023 if a new order is placed now. Given that auto leaders General Motors, Ford, and Tesla will also be expected to compete with their pickup trucks soon, Rivian must maintain its production cadence. Therefore, we encourage investors to monitor their production milestones very carefully moving ahead.<blockquote>我们设计了产品开发，使其能够运行多个程序并同时启动多个程序，同时还能在不同程序之间实现快速反馈循环。因此，商用厢式货车实际上从R1平台和R1平台发布中学到了很多东西。从扩张的角度来看，您在佐治亚州的工厂对我们来说至关重要。我们对前进的道路很有信心。我们的所有三款车辆都已获得销售认证，并在两条不同的生产线上生产。该组织的架构是为了便于同时运行和操作多个程序.因此，当我们现在看到明年 R1T 和 R1S 的斜坡时，它确实使我们能够在 2022 年快速增长。（Rivian 的 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）虽然现在还为时尚早，但Rivian投资者无疑对该公司能够加快生产节奏以实现交付里程碑充满信心。与短期供应限制相比，该公司并未面临需求问题。他们更新说，R1订单已经从上次更新的5.5万攀升到7.1万。尽管如此，这些都是可取消的订单，因为如果现在下新订单，它们的交货时间表已延长至 2023 年。鉴于汽车领导者通用汽车、福特和特斯拉预计也将很快与他们的皮卡车竞争，Rivian必须保持其生产节奏。因此，我们鼓励投资者在未来非常仔细地监控其生产里程碑。</blockquote> Investors Must Carefully Monitor Amazon's EDV Range<blockquote>投资者必须仔细监控亚马逊的 EDV 产品系列</blockquote> The partnership with Amazon is critical to jumpstarting Rivian's ambitions into the commercial fleet segment. Not only does it offer the opportunity of massive fleet sales, but it also sells its fleet management subscriptions as part of its commercial sales. Consequently, it introduces a recurring software revenue stream component on top of its hardware revenue. It also applies to the Amazon fleet, as Rivian accentuated: \"That software subscription goes live basically now on the commercial side.\"<blockquote>与亚马逊的合作对于启动 Rivian 进军商业车队领域的雄心至关重要。它不仅提供了大规模车队销售的机会，还将其车队管理订阅作为商业销售的一部分出售。因此，除了硬件收入之外，它还引入了一个经常性的软件收入流组成部分。这也适用于亚马逊车队，正如Rivian强调的那样：“该软件订阅现在基本上已经在商业方面上线。”</blockquote> Rivian is expected to deliver 10K EDV by 2022 following \"months of testing&nbsp;in 15 cities.\" Investors should remember that Amazon retains the right to change its number of orders. Therefore it's critical that Rivian can meet Amazon's expectations. We believe it has also driven Rivian to ramp production quickly. Given how quickly they secured their second production facility, we believe that the company seems confident in meeting its production targets, and consequently, Amazon's orders.<blockquote>经过“在 15 个城市进行数月的测试”，Rivian预计到 2022 年将交付 1 万台 EDV。投资者应该记住，亚马逊保留更改其订单数量的权利。因此，Rivian能够满足亚马逊的期望至关重要。我们相信这也促使Rivian迅速提高产量。考虑到他们获得第二个生产设施的速度，我们相信该公司似乎有信心实现其生产目标，从而实现亚马逊的订单。</blockquote> Rivian emphasized that its EDV is capable of 201 miles range, and it is on track to deliver its vehicles to Amazon. However, a previous report by The Information highlighted some challenges in Amazon's testing, on top of its battery draining problem. The Information reported (edited):<blockquote>Rivian强调，其 EDV 的续航里程为 201 英里，并且有望向亚马逊交付车辆。然而，《信息报》之前的一份报告强调了亚马逊测试中的一些挑战，除了电池耗尽问题之外。报告信息（编辑）：</blockquote> Rivian said the Amazon vans would have a range of between 120 miles and 150 miles depending on their size. But one driver involved in testing the vans said the range could be much less, depending on the weather. The driver who spoke to The Information said the battery drained about 40% faster than normal if the van’s heating or cooling was on. As a result, drivers have been testing the vans on what they dubbed “nursery routes,” where vans didn’t venture too far away from the contractors’ headquarters. (The Information) Nevertheless, Amazon's director of Global Fleets and Products, Ross Rachey, noted that once the vans are in production, \"they would have a range of 150 miles, which is double the range of the majority of Amazon's routes.\" Notably, the company also quickly emphasized that these test vans are not fully developed yet.<blockquote>Rivian表示，亚马逊货车的续航里程将在 120 英里至 150 英里之间，具体取决于其尺寸。但一名参与测试货车的司机表示，根据天气情况，续航里程可能会短得多。接受《信息报》采访的司机说，如果面包车开着暖气或冷却装置，电池的耗尽速度会比正常情况快 40% 左右。因此，司机们一直在他们所谓的 “苗圃路线 ”上测试货车，在这些路线上，货车不会冒险离开承包商总部太远。（The Information）尽管如此，亚马逊全球车队和产品总监 Ross Rachey 指出，一旦这些货车投入生产，“它们的续航里程将达到 150 英里，是亚马逊大多数路线续航里程的两倍。”值得注意的是，该公司还很快强调，这些测试货车尚未完全开发。</blockquote> We believe a successful launch program with Amazon could open up many potential opportunities outside of the Last Mile segment. Investors should note that Amazon's exclusive partnership with Rivian is limited to Last Mile. But, the commercial space is much larger than the Last Mile segment. Rivian also raved about its market opportunities in the larger commercial space, as Scaringe added (edited):<blockquote>我们相信，与亚马逊的成功发布计划可以在最后一英里领域之外开辟许多潜在的机会。投资者应该注意，亚马逊与Rivian的独家合作仅限于最后一英里。但是，商业空间比最后一英里段大得多。Rivian还对其在更大的商业空间中的市场机会赞不绝口，斯卡林奇补充道（编辑）：</blockquote> Amazon represents such a large pool of demand for us.So it's really critical that we do not starve them of vehicles. Nevertheless, the RCV platform was architected and designed fully contemplating vehicles beyond Last Mile, such as in the cargo space, or in the workspace. So there's a whole host of opportunities that exists both in large volumes, but also across a very long spread-out tail of commercial applications. Thus, we also have an eye on launching non-EDV versions on the RCV platform to capitalize on these opportunities. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call) So, is RIVN Stock a Buy/Hold/Sell Now?<blockquote>亚马逊代表了我们如此庞大的需求。因此，我们不要让他们挨饿，这一点非常重要。然而，RCV平台的架构和设计充分考虑最后一英里以外的车辆，例如货舱，或在工作区中。因此，有一大堆机会，既存在于大量，也存在于一个非常长的商业应用尾部。因此，我们也着眼于在RCV平台上推出非EDV版本，以利用这些机会。（Rivian 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）那么，RIVN股票现在是买入/持有/卖出吗？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264dc3dc91fc844d920e73a7f69cf920\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Rivian revenue and adjusted EBIT margins mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Rivian收入和调整后息税前利润率是普遍预期。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1069e7fc16920da396615f6df6ff5951\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">RIVN and TSLA stock EV/Fwd Revenue valuation comps. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>RIVN 和 TSLA 股票 EV/Fwd 收入估值比较。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Consensus estimates point to a largely successful ramp, as we explained earlier. As a result, Rivian's revenue is estimated to reach $27.84B by FY25. However, the company is not expected to be profitable based on adjusted EBIT margins by then. Therefore, investors are encouraged to monitor its production ramp and profitability dynamics moving forward carefully.<blockquote>正如我们之前解释的那样，共识估计指向一个很大程度上成功的斜坡。因此，到 2025 财年，Rivian 的收入预计将达到 27.84B 美元。然而，根据调整后的息税前利润率，预计该公司届时不会盈利。因此，鼓励投资者仔细监控其产量增长和盈利能力动态。</blockquote> Nevertheless, its valuations have dropped significantly since its earlier momentum spike. The stock has declined more than 25% since our Neutral call, as we encouraged investors to wait for the dip.<blockquote>然而，自早些时候的势头飙升以来，其估值已大幅下降。自我们采取中性看涨期权以来，该股已下跌超过 25%，因为我们鼓励投资者等待下跌。</blockquote> If we consider Rivian's valuations against Tesla moving forward, it may seem more reasonable than the EV leader. However, investors should note that Tesla is already a solidly profitable EV maker. It also has proven its production ramp capabilities exceptionally well. Moreover, its brand value has also increased tremendously globally. Therefore, comparing their revenue multiples directly without adjusting for Tesla's advantages would not make sense.<blockquote>如果我们将 Rivian 的估值与特斯拉的估值进行比较，它似乎比电动汽车领导者更合理。然而，投资者应该注意到，特斯拉已经是一家盈利稳健的电动汽车制造商。它还证明了其出色的生产能力。此外，其品牌价值在全球范围内也大幅增长。因此，在不调整特斯拉优势的情况下直接比较它们的收入倍数是没有意义的。</blockquote> Based on Rivian stock's EV/FY25 revenue multiple of 3.4x, it's trading at 50% of Tesla's FY25 revenue multiple. Therefore, we think RIVN stock looks fairly valued now. Nevertheless, we believe that RIVN stock remains a highly speculative play. However, the company seems to be getting well on track to meet its mid-term production guidance. Therefore, the current weakness could offer speculative investors a potential opportunity to add exposure at a more reasonable valuation.<blockquote>根据Rivian股票 3.4 倍的 EV/25 财年收入倍数，其交易价格是特斯拉 25 财年收入倍数的 50%。因此，我们认为 RIVN 股票现在看起来估值合理。尽管如此，我们认为 RIVN 股票仍然是一个高度投机性的股票。然而，该公司似乎正在顺利实现中期生产指导。因此，当前的疲软可能会为投机投资者提供一个以更合理的估值增加风险敞口的潜在机会。</blockquote> Consequently,we revise our rating on RIVN stock to Buy.However, we would like to caution that RIVN stock may be suitable for speculative investors only. Moreover, the stock could continue to exhibit tremendous volatility. Therefore, investors are encouraged to add in phases.<blockquote>因此，我们将 RIVN 股票的评级修改为买入。然而，我们想提醒的是，RIVN 股票可能只适合投机投资者。此外，该股可能会继续表现出巨大的波动性。因此，鼓励投资者分阶段增持。</blockquote> This article was written by&nbsp;JR Research.<blockquote>本文由JR Research撰写。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Rivian Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?<blockquote>Rivian股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Rivian Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?<blockquote>Rivian股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-22 14:13\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Rivian stock has dropped more than 25% since our last Neutral call.</li> <li>The company reported a slight production target miss in its FQ3 earnings call. However, we don't think investors should be overly worried.</li> <li>We discuss why we think RIVN stock is a Buy now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69bdd77748b1c27c695aff2846bb30c6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>自上次中性看涨期权以来，Rivian股价已下跌超过 25%。</li><li>该公司在第三季度收益看涨期权中报告称，产量目标略有低于预期。不过，我们认为投资者不必过度担心。</li><li>我们讨论为什么我们认为 RIVN 股票现在值得买入。</li></ul>迈克尔·M·圣地亚哥/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) recently released its first earnings reports for FQ3'21 as a public company. Notably, the company missed its 1,200 vehicle production target by \"a few hundred vehicles.\" However, we weren't surprised, given the current supply chain bottlenecks and the challenges in ramping production. Moreover, we don't think investors should be unduly concerned about its short-term production goal. Management was clear as it emphasized that its long-term production targets remain unaffected.<blockquote>Rivian汽车公司 (RIVN) 最近作为上市公司发布了 2021 年第三季度的第一份收益报告。值得注意的是，该公司距离 1,200 辆汽车的产量目标差了“几百辆”。然而，考虑到当前的供应链瓶颈和提高产量的挑战，我们并不感到惊讶。此外，我们认为投资者不应过度担心其短期生产目标。管理层明确强调其长期生产目标不受影响。</blockquote> Nevertheless, we believe that ramping production successfully will continue to be a key hurdle facing CEO RJ Scaringe &amp; Co. Investors sent the stock tumbling after its earnings report, which we believe the market took the opportunity to pare down risk. After all, RIVN stock had traded at an incredible market cap of $112.8B&nbsp;when we wrote our previous article. Following the recent sell-off, Rivian's market cap has dropped to $88B. Therefore, we believe it's an appropriate time to revisit our thesis on RIVN stock post-FQ3 earnings.<blockquote>尽管如此，我们相信成功提高产量仍将是首席执行官 RJ Scaringe &amp; Co. 面临的主要障碍。投资者在财报发布后导致该股暴跌，我们认为市场借此机会降低了风险。毕竟，当我们撰写上一篇文章时，RIVN 股票的市值达到了令人难以置信的 $112.8B。继最近的抛售之后，Rivian 的市值已降至 $88B。因此，我们认为现在是重新审视我们关于 RIVN 股票第三季度后收益的论点的合适时机。</blockquote> We also discuss why we think the stock seems fairly valued now.<blockquote>我们还讨论了为什么我们认为该股票现在的估值似乎合理。</blockquote> Rivian Market Cap Trend<blockquote>Rivian市值趋势</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a528b02874c529215e0428c40adc5ad1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">RIVN market cap analysis (as of 17 December'21).<blockquote>RIVN市值分析（截至21年12月17日）。</blockquote> Readers can quickly glean that Rivian's market cap has dropped dramatically back to where it started life as a public company. It last registered a market cap of $88B, while it began trading with a market cap of $83.6B in early November.<blockquote>读者很快就会发现，Rivian 的市值已大幅回落至其作为上市公司的起点。它最后一次注册的市值为 88B 美元，而它在 11 月初开始交易的市值为 83.6B 美元。</blockquote> Nevertheless, Rivian's market cap still exceeded Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) market cap even as it just started making deliveries in September. Some investors find it incredulous that a company that hasn't even ramped production could be worth more than both the US auto leaders.<blockquote>尽管如此，Rivian 的市值仍然超过了福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 的市值，尽管它在 9 月份才开始交付。一些投资者觉得难以置信，一家甚至没有提高产量的公司竟然比两家美国汽车巨头的价值还要高。</blockquote> Why We Think Rivian Investors Remain Optimistic Post-FQ3<blockquote>为什么我们认为Rivian投资者在第三季度后保持乐观</blockquote> Rivian's report card wasn't a disaster, even if the company missed its production guidance for 2021. CEO RJ Scaringe offered assurances as he emphasized (edited):<blockquote>Rivian 的成绩单并不是一场灾难，即使该公司错过了 2021 年的生产指导。首席执行官 RJ Scaringe 提供了保证，他强调（编辑）：</blockquote> For 2021, we expect to produce a few hundred vehicles short of our initial 1,200 vehicle production target. We do not believe any of our supply chain challenges represent long-term systemic issues. We remain well-positioned to capture and drive the accelerated large-scale adoption of sustainable transportation. However, a small number of suppliers or small number of components may be ramping a little slower, creating constraints or bottlenecks. Those challenges have been really a focal point for us over the last two and a half, three months. But, these issues are short-term in nature and they are solvable problems. So, we don't see any long-term systemic challenges associated with ramping the supply chain. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call) <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ec61d947f0a1da5f4d5883a8941a7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Rivian planned production capacity and delivery consensus estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ, Barron's<blockquote>2021年，我们预计生产几百辆汽车，低于最初 1,200 辆汽车的生产目标我们不认为我们的任何供应链挑战代表长期的系统性问题。我们仍然处于有利地位，能够抓住和推动可持续交通的加速大规模采用。然而，少数供应商或少数组件的速度可能会稍微慢一些，从而造成限制或瓶颈。在过去的两个半月到三个月里，这些挑战确实是我们关注的焦点。但是，这些问题本质上是短期的，是可以解决的问题因此，我们看不到任何与提升供应链相关的长期系统性挑战。（Rivian 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）Rivian计划产能和交付共识估计。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ、巴伦周刊</blockquote> Rivian telegraphed that it would be commencing its new Georgia production facility in mid'22 and ready to begin production from 2024. Georgia's planned annual run rate is estimated at 400K. Therefore, it would afford Rivian a collective annual production capacity of 600K if we include its Illinois facility. Nevertheless, the company did not specify how long it would take to ramp production to its planned capacity. However, consensus estimates point to a relatively positive ramp through FY25. As a result, Rivian is estimated to deliver about 40K of vehicles in FY22. However, it would reach the 360K milestone by FY25, registering an estimated delivery CAGR of 108%. Its 360K estimate includes the 100K EDV orders from its exclusive last-mile delivery partner and cornerstone investor Amazon (AMZN).<blockquote>Rivian电报称，该公司将于 2022 年中期在佐治亚州启动新的生产设施，并准备从 2024 年开始生产。佐治亚州的计划年运行率估计为40万。因此，如果算上伊利诺伊州工厂，Rivian的年产能将达到 60 万辆。不过，该公司没有具体说明将产量提高到计划产能需要多长时间。然而，共识估计表明，2025 财年将出现相对积极的增长。因此，Rivian预计将在 2022 财年交付约 4 万辆汽车。然而，到 25 财年，它将达到 36 万辆的里程碑，预计交付复合年增长率为 108%。其 36 万份估计包括来自其独家最后一英里配送合作伙伴和基石投资者亚马逊 (AMZN) 的 10 万份 EDV 订单。</blockquote> There's little doubt that the delivery cadence estimates look very aggressive. But, if done well, it's also not impossible. Keen investors should recall that Tesla (TSLA) took just two years to ramp Giga Shanghai from zero to its current 600K annual run rate. It has even recently made new investments to enhance its production capacity further. Rivian also seems highly confident that they can ramp successfully, as CEO RJ Scaringe emphasized (edited):<blockquote>毫无疑问，交付节奏的估计看起来非常激进。但是，如果做得好，这也不是不可能的。敏锐的投资者应该还记得，特斯拉 (TSLA) 仅用了两年时间就将 Giga Shanghai 从零提高到目前 60 万辆的年运行率。它最近甚至进行了新的投资，以进一步提高其产能。正如首席执行官 RJ Scaringe 强调的那样，Rivian似乎也对他们能够成功实现增长充满信心（编辑）：</blockquote> We've architected the product development to be capable of running more than one program and launching more than one program at once, but also to have those fast feedback loops between the different programs. So with that, the commercial van has actually learned a lot from the R1 platform and the R1 platform launch. What you see in terms of the facility in Georgia, is key for us from an expansion point of view. We're quite confident in the path ahead. All three of our vehicles have been certified for sale and they're being produced on two different production lines. The organization was architected to facilitate running and operating multiple programs at the same time. And so as we now look at what the ramp will look like for both R1T and R1S into next year, it really positions us to rapidly grow through the course of 2022. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call) While it's still early, Rivian investors are undoubtedly confident that the company can deliver on its production cadence to meet its delivery milestones. The company is not facing a demand issue compared to short-term supply constraints. They updated that R1 orders have climbed to 71K from 55K in the previous update. Nevertheless, these are cancelable orders, as their delivery timeline has been stretched to 2023 if a new order is placed now. Given that auto leaders General Motors, Ford, and Tesla will also be expected to compete with their pickup trucks soon, Rivian must maintain its production cadence. Therefore, we encourage investors to monitor their production milestones very carefully moving ahead.<blockquote>我们设计了产品开发，使其能够运行多个程序并同时启动多个程序，同时还能在不同程序之间实现快速反馈循环。因此，商用厢式货车实际上从R1平台和R1平台发布中学到了很多东西。从扩张的角度来看，您在佐治亚州的工厂对我们来说至关重要。我们对前进的道路很有信心。我们的所有三款车辆都已获得销售认证，并在两条不同的生产线上生产。该组织的架构是为了便于同时运行和操作多个程序.因此，当我们现在看到明年 R1T 和 R1S 的斜坡时，它确实使我们能够在 2022 年快速增长。（Rivian 的 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）虽然现在还为时尚早，但Rivian投资者无疑对该公司能够加快生产节奏以实现交付里程碑充满信心。与短期供应限制相比，该公司并未面临需求问题。他们更新说，R1订单已经从上次更新的5.5万攀升到7.1万。尽管如此，这些都是可取消的订单，因为如果现在下新订单，它们的交货时间表已延长至 2023 年。鉴于汽车领导者通用汽车、福特和特斯拉预计也将很快与他们的皮卡车竞争，Rivian必须保持其生产节奏。因此，我们鼓励投资者在未来非常仔细地监控其生产里程碑。</blockquote> Investors Must Carefully Monitor Amazon's EDV Range<blockquote>投资者必须仔细监控亚马逊的 EDV 产品系列</blockquote> The partnership with Amazon is critical to jumpstarting Rivian's ambitions into the commercial fleet segment. Not only does it offer the opportunity of massive fleet sales, but it also sells its fleet management subscriptions as part of its commercial sales. Consequently, it introduces a recurring software revenue stream component on top of its hardware revenue. It also applies to the Amazon fleet, as Rivian accentuated: \"That software subscription goes live basically now on the commercial side.\"<blockquote>与亚马逊的合作对于启动 Rivian 进军商业车队领域的雄心至关重要。它不仅提供了大规模车队销售的机会，还将其车队管理订阅作为商业销售的一部分出售。因此，除了硬件收入之外，它还引入了一个经常性的软件收入流组成部分。这也适用于亚马逊车队，正如Rivian强调的那样：“该软件订阅现在基本上已经在商业方面上线。”</blockquote> Rivian is expected to deliver 10K EDV by 2022 following \"months of testing&nbsp;in 15 cities.\" Investors should remember that Amazon retains the right to change its number of orders. Therefore it's critical that Rivian can meet Amazon's expectations. We believe it has also driven Rivian to ramp production quickly. Given how quickly they secured their second production facility, we believe that the company seems confident in meeting its production targets, and consequently, Amazon's orders.<blockquote>经过“在 15 个城市进行数月的测试”，Rivian预计到 2022 年将交付 1 万台 EDV。投资者应该记住，亚马逊保留更改其订单数量的权利。因此，Rivian能够满足亚马逊的期望至关重要。我们相信这也促使Rivian迅速提高产量。考虑到他们获得第二个生产设施的速度，我们相信该公司似乎有信心实现其生产目标，从而实现亚马逊的订单。</blockquote> Rivian emphasized that its EDV is capable of 201 miles range, and it is on track to deliver its vehicles to Amazon. However, a previous report by The Information highlighted some challenges in Amazon's testing, on top of its battery draining problem. The Information reported (edited):<blockquote>Rivian强调，其 EDV 的续航里程为 201 英里，并且有望向亚马逊交付车辆。然而，《信息报》之前的一份报告强调了亚马逊测试中的一些挑战，除了电池耗尽问题之外。报告信息（编辑）：</blockquote> Rivian said the Amazon vans would have a range of between 120 miles and 150 miles depending on their size. But one driver involved in testing the vans said the range could be much less, depending on the weather. The driver who spoke to The Information said the battery drained about 40% faster than normal if the van’s heating or cooling was on. As a result, drivers have been testing the vans on what they dubbed “nursery routes,” where vans didn’t venture too far away from the contractors’ headquarters. (The Information) Nevertheless, Amazon's director of Global Fleets and Products, Ross Rachey, noted that once the vans are in production, \"they would have a range of 150 miles, which is double the range of the majority of Amazon's routes.\" Notably, the company also quickly emphasized that these test vans are not fully developed yet.<blockquote>Rivian表示，亚马逊货车的续航里程将在 120 英里至 150 英里之间，具体取决于其尺寸。但一名参与测试货车的司机表示，根据天气情况，续航里程可能会短得多。接受《信息报》采访的司机说，如果面包车开着暖气或冷却装置，电池的耗尽速度会比正常情况快 40% 左右。因此，司机们一直在他们所谓的 “苗圃路线 ”上测试货车，在这些路线上，货车不会冒险离开承包商总部太远。（The Information）尽管如此，亚马逊全球车队和产品总监 Ross Rachey 指出，一旦这些货车投入生产，“它们的续航里程将达到 150 英里，是亚马逊大多数路线续航里程的两倍。”值得注意的是，该公司还很快强调，这些测试货车尚未完全开发。</blockquote> We believe a successful launch program with Amazon could open up many potential opportunities outside of the Last Mile segment. Investors should note that Amazon's exclusive partnership with Rivian is limited to Last Mile. But, the commercial space is much larger than the Last Mile segment. Rivian also raved about its market opportunities in the larger commercial space, as Scaringe added (edited):<blockquote>我们相信，与亚马逊的成功发布计划可以在最后一英里领域之外开辟许多潜在的机会。投资者应该注意，亚马逊与Rivian的独家合作仅限于最后一英里。但是，商业空间比最后一英里段大得多。Rivian还对其在更大的商业空间中的市场机会赞不绝口，斯卡林奇补充道（编辑）：</blockquote> Amazon represents such a large pool of demand for us.So it's really critical that we do not starve them of vehicles. Nevertheless, the RCV platform was architected and designed fully contemplating vehicles beyond Last Mile, such as in the cargo space, or in the workspace. So there's a whole host of opportunities that exists both in large volumes, but also across a very long spread-out tail of commercial applications. Thus, we also have an eye on launching non-EDV versions on the RCV platform to capitalize on these opportunities. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call) So, is RIVN Stock a Buy/Hold/Sell Now?<blockquote>亚马逊代表了我们如此庞大的需求。因此，我们不要让他们挨饿，这一点非常重要。然而，RCV平台的架构和设计充分考虑最后一英里以外的车辆，例如货舱，或在工作区中。因此，有一大堆机会，既存在于大量，也存在于一个非常长的商业应用尾部。因此，我们也着眼于在RCV平台上推出非EDV版本，以利用这些机会。（Rivian 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）那么，RIVN股票现在是买入/持有/卖出吗？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264dc3dc91fc844d920e73a7f69cf920\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Rivian revenue and adjusted EBIT margins mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Rivian收入和调整后息税前利润率是普遍预期。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1069e7fc16920da396615f6df6ff5951\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">RIVN and TSLA stock EV/Fwd Revenue valuation comps. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>RIVN 和 TSLA 股票 EV/Fwd 收入估值比较。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Consensus estimates point to a largely successful ramp, as we explained earlier. As a result, Rivian's revenue is estimated to reach $27.84B by FY25. However, the company is not expected to be profitable based on adjusted EBIT margins by then. Therefore, investors are encouraged to monitor its production ramp and profitability dynamics moving forward carefully.<blockquote>正如我们之前解释的那样，共识估计指向一个很大程度上成功的斜坡。因此，到 2025 财年，Rivian 的收入预计将达到 27.84B 美元。然而，根据调整后的息税前利润率，预计该公司届时不会盈利。因此，鼓励投资者仔细监控其产量增长和盈利能力动态。</blockquote> Nevertheless, its valuations have dropped significantly since its earlier momentum spike. The stock has declined more than 25% since our Neutral call, as we encouraged investors to wait for the dip.<blockquote>然而，自早些时候的势头飙升以来，其估值已大幅下降。自我们采取中性看涨期权以来，该股已下跌超过 25%，因为我们鼓励投资者等待下跌。</blockquote> If we consider Rivian's valuations against Tesla moving forward, it may seem more reasonable than the EV leader. However, investors should note that Tesla is already a solidly profitable EV maker. It also has proven its production ramp capabilities exceptionally well. Moreover, its brand value has also increased tremendously globally. Therefore, comparing their revenue multiples directly without adjusting for Tesla's advantages would not make sense.<blockquote>如果我们将 Rivian 的估值与特斯拉的估值进行比较，它似乎比电动汽车领导者更合理。然而，投资者应该注意到，特斯拉已经是一家盈利稳健的电动汽车制造商。它还证明了其出色的生产能力。此外，其品牌价值在全球范围内也大幅增长。因此，在不调整特斯拉优势的情况下直接比较它们的收入倍数是没有意义的。</blockquote> Based on Rivian stock's EV/FY25 revenue multiple of 3.4x, it's trading at 50% of Tesla's FY25 revenue multiple. Therefore, we think RIVN stock looks fairly valued now. Nevertheless, we believe that RIVN stock remains a highly speculative play. However, the company seems to be getting well on track to meet its mid-term production guidance. Therefore, the current weakness could offer speculative investors a potential opportunity to add exposure at a more reasonable valuation.<blockquote>根据Rivian股票 3.4 倍的 EV/25 财年收入倍数，其交易价格是特斯拉 25 财年收入倍数的 50%。因此，我们认为 RIVN 股票现在看起来估值合理。尽管如此，我们认为 RIVN 股票仍然是一个高度投机性的股票。然而，该公司似乎正在顺利实现中期生产指导。因此，当前的疲软可能会为投机投资者提供一个以更合理的估值增加风险敞口的潜在机会。</blockquote> Consequently,we revise our rating on RIVN stock to Buy.However, we would like to caution that RIVN stock may be suitable for speculative investors only. Moreover, the stock could continue to exhibit tremendous volatility. Therefore, investors are encouraged to add in phases.<blockquote>因此，我们将 RIVN 股票的评级修改为买入。然而，我们想提醒的是，RIVN 股票可能只适合投机投资者。此外，该股可能会继续表现出巨大的波动性。因此，鼓励投资者分阶段增持。</blockquote> This article was written by&nbsp;JR Research.<blockquote>本文由JR Research撰写。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476199-rivian-stock-buy-sell-hold\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476199-rivian-stock-buy-sell-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123940793","content_text":"Summary\n\nRivian stock has dropped more than 25% since our last Neutral call.\nThe company reported a slight production target miss in its FQ3 earnings call. However, we don't think investors should be overly worried.\nWe discuss why we think RIVN stock is a Buy now.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images News\nInvestment Thesis\nRivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) recently released its first earnings reports for FQ3'21 as a public company. Notably, the company missed its 1,200 vehicle production target by \"a few hundred vehicles.\" However, we weren't surprised, given the current supply chain bottlenecks and the challenges in ramping production. Moreover, we don't think investors should be unduly concerned about its short-term production goal. Management was clear as it emphasized that its long-term production targets remain unaffected.\nNevertheless, we believe that ramping production successfully will continue to be a key hurdle facing CEO RJ Scaringe & Co. Investors sent the stock tumbling after its earnings report, which we believe the market took the opportunity to pare down risk. After all, RIVN stock had traded at an incredible market cap of $112.8B when we wrote our previous article. Following the recent sell-off, Rivian's market cap has dropped to $88B. Therefore, we believe it's an appropriate time to revisit our thesis on RIVN stock post-FQ3 earnings.\nWe also discuss why we think the stock seems fairly valued now.\nRivian Market Cap Trend\nRIVN market cap analysis (as of 17 December'21).\nReaders can quickly glean that Rivian's market cap has dropped dramatically back to where it started life as a public company. It last registered a market cap of $88B, while it began trading with a market cap of $83.6B in early November.\nNevertheless, Rivian's market cap still exceeded Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) market cap even as it just started making deliveries in September. Some investors find it incredulous that a company that hasn't even ramped production could be worth more than both the US auto leaders.\nWhy We Think Rivian Investors Remain Optimistic Post-FQ3\nRivian's report card wasn't a disaster, even if the company missed its production guidance for 2021. CEO RJ Scaringe offered assurances as he emphasized (edited):\n\n For 2021, \n we expect to produce a few hundred vehicles short of our initial 1,200 vehicle production target. We do not believe any of our supply chain challenges represent long-term systemic issues. We remain well-positioned to capture and drive the accelerated large-scale adoption of sustainable transportation. However, a small number of suppliers or small number of components may be ramping a little slower, creating constraints or bottlenecks. Those challenges have been really a focal point for us over the last two and a half, three months. \n But, these issues are short-term in nature and they are solvable problems. So, we don't see any long-term systemic challenges associated with ramping the supply chain. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nRivian planned production capacity and delivery consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Barron's\nRivian telegraphed that it would be commencing its new Georgia production facility in mid'22 and ready to begin production from 2024. Georgia's planned annual run rate is estimated at 400K. Therefore, it would afford Rivian a collective annual production capacity of 600K if we include its Illinois facility. Nevertheless, the company did not specify how long it would take to ramp production to its planned capacity. However, consensus estimates point to a relatively positive ramp through FY25. As a result, Rivian is estimated to deliver about 40K of vehicles in FY22. However, it would reach the 360K milestone by FY25, registering an estimated delivery CAGR of 108%. Its 360K estimate includes the 100K EDV orders from its exclusive last-mile delivery partner and cornerstone investor Amazon (AMZN).\nThere's little doubt that the delivery cadence estimates look very aggressive. But, if done well, it's also not impossible. Keen investors should recall that Tesla (TSLA) took just two years to ramp Giga Shanghai from zero to its current 600K annual run rate. It has even recently made new investments to enhance its production capacity further. Rivian also seems highly confident that they can ramp successfully, as CEO RJ Scaringe emphasized (edited):\n\n We've architected the product development to be capable of running more than one program and launching more than one program at once, but also to have those fast feedback loops between the different programs. So with that, the commercial van has actually learned a lot from the R1 platform and the R1 platform launch. What you see in terms of the facility in Georgia, is key for us from an expansion point of view. We're quite confident in the path ahead. All three of our vehicles have been certified for sale and they're being produced on two different production lines. \n The organization was architected to facilitate running and operating multiple programs at the same time. And so as we now look at what the ramp will look like for both R1T and R1S into next year, it really positions us to rapidly grow through the course of 2022. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nWhile it's still early, Rivian investors are undoubtedly confident that the company can deliver on its production cadence to meet its delivery milestones. The company is not facing a demand issue compared to short-term supply constraints. They updated that R1 orders have climbed to 71K from 55K in the previous update. Nevertheless, these are cancelable orders, as their delivery timeline has been stretched to 2023 if a new order is placed now. Given that auto leaders General Motors, Ford, and Tesla will also be expected to compete with their pickup trucks soon, Rivian must maintain its production cadence. Therefore, we encourage investors to monitor their production milestones very carefully moving ahead.\nInvestors Must Carefully Monitor Amazon's EDV Range\nThe partnership with Amazon is critical to jumpstarting Rivian's ambitions into the commercial fleet segment. Not only does it offer the opportunity of massive fleet sales, but it also sells its fleet management subscriptions as part of its commercial sales. Consequently, it introduces a recurring software revenue stream component on top of its hardware revenue. It also applies to the Amazon fleet, as Rivian accentuated: \"That software subscription goes live basically now on the commercial side.\"\nRivian is expected to deliver 10K EDV by 2022 following \"months of testing in 15 cities.\" Investors should remember that Amazon retains the right to change its number of orders. Therefore it's critical that Rivian can meet Amazon's expectations. We believe it has also driven Rivian to ramp production quickly. Given how quickly they secured their second production facility, we believe that the company seems confident in meeting its production targets, and consequently, Amazon's orders.\nRivian emphasized that its EDV is capable of 201 miles range, and it is on track to deliver its vehicles to Amazon. However, a previous report by The Information highlighted some challenges in Amazon's testing, on top of its battery draining problem. The Information reported (edited):\n\n Rivian said the Amazon vans would have a range of between 120 miles and 150 miles depending on their size. But one driver involved in testing the vans said the range could be much less, depending on the weather. The driver who spoke to The Information said the battery drained about 40% faster than normal if the van’s heating or cooling was on. As a result, drivers have been testing the vans on what they dubbed “nursery routes,” where vans didn’t venture too far away from the contractors’ headquarters. (The Information)\n\nNevertheless, Amazon's director of Global Fleets and Products, Ross Rachey, noted that once the vans are in production, \"they would have a range of 150 miles, which is double the range of the majority of Amazon's routes.\" Notably, the company also quickly emphasized that these test vans are not fully developed yet.\nWe believe a successful launch program with Amazon could open up many potential opportunities outside of the Last Mile segment. Investors should note that Amazon's exclusive partnership with Rivian is limited to Last Mile. But, the commercial space is much larger than the Last Mile segment. Rivian also raved about its market opportunities in the larger commercial space, as Scaringe added (edited):\n\nAmazon represents such a large pool of demand for us.So it's really critical that we do not starve them of vehicles. Nevertheless, the RCV platform was architected and designed \n fully contemplating vehicles beyond Last Mile, such as in the cargo space, or in the workspace. So there's a whole host of opportunities that exists both in large volumes, but also across a very long spread-out tail of commercial applications. Thus, we also have an eye on launching non-EDV versions on the RCV platform to capitalize on these opportunities. (Rivian's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nSo, is RIVN Stock a Buy/Hold/Sell Now?\nRivian revenue and adjusted EBIT margins mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nRIVN and TSLA stock EV/Fwd Revenue valuation comps. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nConsensus estimates point to a largely successful ramp, as we explained earlier. As a result, Rivian's revenue is estimated to reach $27.84B by FY25. However, the company is not expected to be profitable based on adjusted EBIT margins by then. Therefore, investors are encouraged to monitor its production ramp and profitability dynamics moving forward carefully.\nNevertheless, its valuations have dropped significantly since its earlier momentum spike. The stock has declined more than 25% since our Neutral call, as we encouraged investors to wait for the dip.\nIf we consider Rivian's valuations against Tesla moving forward, it may seem more reasonable than the EV leader. However, investors should note that Tesla is already a solidly profitable EV maker. It also has proven its production ramp capabilities exceptionally well. Moreover, its brand value has also increased tremendously globally. Therefore, comparing their revenue multiples directly without adjusting for Tesla's advantages would not make sense.\nBased on Rivian stock's EV/FY25 revenue multiple of 3.4x, it's trading at 50% of Tesla's FY25 revenue multiple. Therefore, we think RIVN stock looks fairly valued now. Nevertheless, we believe that RIVN stock remains a highly speculative play. However, the company seems to be getting well on track to meet its mid-term production guidance. Therefore, the current weakness could offer speculative investors a potential opportunity to add exposure at a more reasonable valuation.\nConsequently,we revise our rating on RIVN stock to Buy.However, we would like to caution that RIVN stock may be suitable for speculative investors only. Moreover, the stock could continue to exhibit tremendous volatility. Therefore, investors are encouraged to add in phases.\nThis article was written by JR Research.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3309,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/691810554"}