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2021-12-22

Lengthy but well argued. But I wonder what Warren Buffet would actually do.

Why Buffett Should Sell Berkshire's Apple Stake<blockquote>为什么巴菲特应该出售伯克希尔在苹果的股份</blockquote>

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But I wonder what Warren Buffet would actually do.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691833665","repostId":1101145405,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101145405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640152602,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101145405?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-22 13:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Buffett Should Sell Berkshire's Apple Stake<blockquote>为什么巴菲特应该出售伯克希尔在苹果的股份</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101145405","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a strong buy when Berkshire made its first investment. Today, things are ver","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Apple has been a strong buy when Berkshire made its first investment. Today, things are very different - instead of cheap and out of favor, AAPL is very expensive.</li> <li>Berkshire has shown that they are willing to capitalize on low BRK valuations by buying back shares when they are undervalued.</li> <li>Selling overvalued AAPL and using the proceeds to buy undervalued BRK could generate significant shareholder value for Berkshire's investors, I believe.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c50b6ba612256ee64eedf00f7b274a61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Paul Morigi/Getty Images Entertainment<blockquote><ul><li>当伯克希尔进行第一笔投资时，苹果一直是大力买入的股票。如今，情况大不相同——AAPL 不再便宜且失宠，而是非常昂贵。</li><li>伯克希尔已经表明，他们愿意在 BRK 估值被低估时通过回购股票来利用较低的估值。</li><li>我相信，出售被高估的 AAPL 并用所得款项购买被低估的 BRK，可以为伯克希尔的投资者带来巨大的股东价值。</li></ul>保罗·莫里吉/盖蒂图片社娱乐</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Apple's (AAPL) shares are pretty expensive, and the company is entering a period of lower growth if analysts are correct. This means that it could be an opportune time for investors to sell shares to lock in gain - this also holds true for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B), which is a major shareholder. Berkshire could use the proceeds to ramp up its already healthy buybacks further, which would be immensely accretive at current valuations.<blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 的股价相当昂贵，如果分析师正确的话，该公司正在进入一个增长放缓的时期。这意味着投资者可能是出售股票以锁定收益的好时机——主要股东伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 (BRK.A) (BRK.B) 也是如此。伯克希尔可以利用这笔收益进一步加大其本已健康的回购力度，以目前的估值计算，这将带来巨大的增值。</blockquote> Why It Could Be Opportune To Lock In Gains In Apple<blockquote>为什么锁定苹果收益是合适的</blockquote> Last week, I wrote a longer&nbsp;article on Apple&nbsp;and why I believe that shares are currently trading above fair value. The quick recap is that Apple is trading at the highest valuation in a long period of time, no matter whether we look at its earnings multiple, its EV to EBITDA ratio, or its cash flow yield. The EV/EBITDA multiple is most telling, I believe, as it accounts for changes in debt usage and in Apple's cash position over the years:<blockquote>上周，我写了一篇关于苹果以及为什么我认为股票交易目前高于公允价值的较长文章。快速回顾一下，无论我们查看其市盈率、EV 与 EBITDA 比率还是现金流收益率，苹果的交易估值都处于很长一段时间以来的最高水平。我认为，EV/EBITDA 倍数最能说明问题，因为它考虑了多年来债务使用和苹果现金状况的变化：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e6b5d51759ba11c78d02d04731e19a2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> At easily more than twice the historical valuation, AAPL is pretty expensive. At the same time, Apple is entering a period of&nbsp;slower growth, according to the analyst community, since the iPhone and iPad lines are not generating significant business growth any longer, while the Apple Car is likely still years away. The combination of an above-average valuation and a below-average growth rate, combined with weaker tailwinds from buybacks (which are less effective at the current high valuation), means that Apple could be poised for underperformance going forward, which is why I believe that locking in gains could make a lot of sense.<blockquote>AAPL 的估值轻松超过历史估值的两倍，相当昂贵。与此同时，分析师表示，苹果正在进入一个增长放缓的时期，因为 iPhone 和 iPad 产品线不再产生显着的业务增长，而苹果汽车可能还需要数年时间。高于平均水平的估值和低于平均水平的增长率，再加上回购带来的较弱推动力（在当前的高估值下效果较差），意味着苹果未来可能会出现表现不佳的情况，这就是为什么我相信锁定收益可能很有意义。</blockquote> Berkshire's Apple Investment<blockquote>伯克希尔的苹果投资</blockquote> Berkshire Hathaway first started to buy into Apple in 2016. At that time, Apple was trading at a completely different valuation compared to today:<blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司于 2016 年首次开始收购苹果。当时，苹果的交易估值与今天完全不同：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14b39fa01fe2ec9423cdac40d8fb1684\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Shares traded for 10-14x net profits, and at 7-9x EBITDA - not at all comparable to the 30x net earnings multiple and 24x EBITDA multiple AAPL trades at today. In other words, Buffett has, as could be expected, identified Apple as a strong investment when it was very inexpensive - following his \"Value\" approach. Right now, however, Apple is far from a value pick and instead seems pretty pricey, especially when we account for its not very convincing near-term growth outlook - forecasted EPS growth over the next couple of years ranges from just 2%-8% (linked above).<blockquote>股票交易价格为净利润的 10-14 倍，EBITDA 为 7-9 倍，根本无法与 AAPL 今天交易的 30 倍净利润倍数和 24 倍 EBITDA 倍数相提并论。换句话说，正如人们所预料的那样，巴菲特在苹果非常便宜的时候就将其确定为一项强有力的投资——遵循他的“价值”方法。然而，目前苹果远非价值之选，反而显得相当昂贵，尤其是当我们考虑到其不太令人信服的近期增长前景时——未来几年的每股收益预测增长率仅为 2%-8%（链接如上）。</blockquote> Per Berkshire's most recent 10-Q filing, the company held $128 billion worth of Apple stock on September 30:<blockquote>根据伯克希尔最新的 10-Q 文件，该公司截至 9 月 30 日持有价值 1280 亿美元的苹果股票：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09f96108345a43e1eda784e61ff7ee2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: BRK 10-Q<blockquote>资料来源：BRK 10-Q</blockquote> Apple's share price on that date was $142, from which we can infer that Berkshire held around 900 million shares of Apple at the end of the third quarter. Assuming that there were no sales and no buys since then, those same 900 million shares are worth around $154 billion at a current share price of $171 - at the recent peak of $182, the position had a value of $164 billion.<blockquote>苹果当天的股价为142美元，由此我们可以推断伯克希尔在第三季度末持有约9亿股苹果股票。假设此后没有出售或购买，那么按当前 171 美元的股价计算，这 9 亿股股票的价值约为 1,540 亿美元——在最近 182 美元的峰值时，该头寸的价值为 1,640 亿美元。</blockquote> What does Berkshire get out of that $154 billion investment right now? Based on Apple's dividend of $0.22 per share per quarter, Berkshire receives about $790 million a year in dividends - this sounds like quite a lot, but relative to the massive size of the investment, it's just a yield of ~0.5% - the same yield all other Apple shareholders get. On top of that, Berkshire also gets a portion of Apple's other profits, of course. Some of those are paid out via buybacks, which make for a theoretical pro-forma return of around $4.5 billion to Berkshire every year, based on Apple's trailing twelve-month buyback yield of 2.9% (per YCharts). Shareholder returns thus total a little more than $5 billion a year (Berkshire's portion), for a yield of slightly above 3% - still not too great, I believe. Of course, Apple can also generate profits that are not paid out to shareholders, but that are, instead, reinvested to grow the business, e.g. via R&amp;D spending or capital expenditures. In recent years, however, that was not an especially large portion - with an earnings yield of just above 3%, based on estimates for the current fiscal year, and with buybacks and dividends totaling 3.4%, Apple isn't actually retaining any earnings right now.<blockquote>伯克希尔现在从这1540亿美元的投资中得到了什么？根据苹果每季度每股 0.22 美元的股息计算，伯克希尔每年可获得约 7.9 亿美元的股息 - 这听起来很多，但相对于巨大的投资规模，收益率仅为约 0.5% - 所有其他苹果股东获得的收益率相同。除此之外，伯克希尔还获得了苹果其他利润的一部分。其中一些是通过回购支付的，根据苹果过去 12 个月 2.9% 的回购收益率（根据 YCharts）计算，每年为伯克希尔带来的理论备考回报约为 45 亿美元。因此，股东回报总额每年略高于 50 亿美元（伯克希尔的部分），收益率略高于 3%——我认为仍然不算太高。当然，苹果也可以产生不支付给股东的利润，而是再投资以发展业务，例如通过R&amp;D支出或资本支出。然而，近年来，这并不是一个特别大的部分——根据本财年的预测，市盈率略高于 3%，回购和股息总计 3.4%，苹果实际上并没有保留任何收益现在。</blockquote> Looking at the shareholder return picture, or alternatively using the concept of \"look-through earnings\" - Berkshire's portion of Apple's profits - gets us to a relatively similar picture: Apple's earnings per share are forecasted at $5.70 during the current year - a 900 million share position thus generates theoretical profits of $5.1 billion for Apple. In both cases, whether we focus on actual shareholder returns or on the look-through profit concept, the return picture is comparable - Berkshire gets about $5 billion a year for a $150+ billion investment.<blockquote>看看股东回报情况，或者使用“透视收益”的概念（伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在苹果利润中的份额），我们会看到一个相对相似的情况：苹果今年的每股收益预计为 5.70 美元——因此，9 亿股头寸为苹果带来了 51 亿美元的理论利润。在这两种情况下，无论我们关注实际股东回报还是透视利润概念，回报情况都是可比的——伯克希尔每年通过 1500 多亿美元的投资获得约 50 亿美元。</blockquote> This does, I believe, not generate an adequate return on investment, especially when we consider that the value of Berkshire's Apple investment could easily drop by tens of billions of dollars if Apple's valuation ever reverted back towards historical norms. A 20x earnings multiple for Apple, which would still be above the 10-year median earnings multiple (16, per YCharts), would see shares drop to ~$115, which would result in $52 billion in equity losses for Berkshire's AAPL position relative to how the position is valued today.<blockquote>我认为，这并没有产生足够的投资回报，尤其是当我们考虑到如果苹果的估值恢复到历史常态，伯克希尔在苹果的投资价值可能会轻松下降数百亿美元时。苹果的 20 倍市盈率仍高于 10 年市盈率中位数（根据 YCharts 的数据为 16 倍），股价将跌至约 115 美元，这将导致伯克希尔的 AAPL 头寸遭受 520 亿美元的股权损失相对于该头寸目前的估值。</blockquote> Creating More Value For Shareholders<blockquote>为股东创造更多价值</blockquote> If Apple is trading at a price that could justify locking in gains, this brings up an important question: What would Berkshire do with the proceeds if it were to sell its stake? I believe that there is a pretty good answer to that - they could use it to buy an excellent company trading at an inexpensive valuation. The company in question is one that management knows extremely well - it's Berkshire Hathaway.<blockquote>如果苹果的交易价格可以证明锁定收益是合理的，这就引出了一个重要问题：如果伯克希尔出售其股份，它将如何处理收益？我相信这个问题有一个很好的答案——他们可以用它来收购一家以低廉估值交易的优秀公司。这家公司是管理层非常了解的公司——伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。</blockquote> Berkshire Hathaway has been buying back its own shares at a considerable pace in recent quarters, which shows that management clearly likes the idea of buybacks, and that they deem BRK a good value at current prices - otherwise a great capital allocator, such as Warren Buffett, wouldn't spend billions on buybacks today:<blockquote>伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司最近几个季度一直在以相当快的速度回购自己的股票，这表明管理层显然喜欢回购的想法，并且他们认为 BRK 在当前价格下物有所值——否则像沃伦·巴菲特这样的伟大资本配置者今天不会花费数十亿美元进行回购：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/698ffef8c32981fa0d60f5e7a29f6726\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Berkshire has traded in the $280 to $300 range for more than half a year, and Berkshire has continued to spend billions of dollars on buybacks in that time frame, so it seems pretty obvious that Buffett sees Berkshire as an attractive value in that range. When we consider that Berkshire's book value has most likely risen in recent months, due to equity markets climbing and due to operating profits, BRK could be an even better deal today.<blockquote>半年多来，伯克希尔的交易价格一直在 280 美元至 300 美元之间，而且伯克希尔在这段时间内继续花费数十亿美元进行回购，因此巴菲特认为伯克希尔在该范围内具有吸引力的价值似乎非常明显。当我们考虑到由于股市攀升和营业利润，伯克希尔的账面价值很可能在最近几个月上升时，BRK 今天可能是一笔更好的交易。</blockquote> Let's look at what selling the Apple stake and using the proceeds for buybacks could do for Berkshire and its shareholders. The Apple stake is worth $154 billion, and as established earlier, Berkshire generates about $5 billion a year from that. Berkshire's operating businesses generated about&nbsp;$6.5 billion&nbsp;during the most recent quarter, or $26 billion a year (assuming no future growth). Berkshire's equity portfolio, excluding Apple, was worth $183 billion at the end of the third quarter. The S&amp;P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY)&nbsp;has risen by 6% since then, so let's assume that the equity portfolio, without the Apple stake, is worth around $190 billion today (4% growth to be conservative). Let's now look at two scenarios.<blockquote>让我们看看出售苹果股份并将收益用于回购可以为伯克希尔及其股东带来什么。苹果的股份价值 1,540 亿美元，正如之前确定的那样，伯克希尔每年从中获得约 50 亿美元的收入。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司最近一个季度的运营业务创造了约 65 亿美元的收入，即每年 260 亿美元（假设未来没有增长）。截至第三季度末，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票投资组合（不包括苹果）价值 1,830 亿美元。自那时以来，标普500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) 已上涨 6%，因此让我们假设股票投资组合（不包括苹果股份）今天的价值约为 1900 亿美元（保守来说增长 4%）。现在让我们看两个场景。</blockquote> In the first scenario, the Apple investment is held and we also assume that other equity investments, as well as the cash position, are held. When we further assume that other equities are fairly valued, we can subtract those from Berkshire's current market capitalization to \"net them out\".<blockquote>在第一种情况下，持有苹果投资，我们还假设持有其他股权投资以及现金头寸。当我们进一步假设其他股票估值合理时，我们可以从伯克希尔当前的市值中减去这些股票来“净化它们”。</blockquote> In that case, Berkshire, including its Apple stake, is valued at $311 billion today, once we adjust the $650 billion market capitalization for the $190 billion in non-Apple equities, and for the $149 billion in cash held at the end of the third quarter. Investors get $26 billion in operating earnings, and $5 billion in Apple earnings for that investment, which makes for a $31 billion total - Apple is thus, once we net out cash and non-Apple equities, trading at 10x current profits. In other words, investors get $13.70 in earnings per share from Apple in the form of operating profits and Apple earnings, and they get $150 per share in the form of cash and non-Apple equities held at Berkshire on top of that. Paying $288 for that seems like a pretty good deal, I believe.<blockquote>在这种情况下，一旦我们将 6,500 亿美元的市值调整为 1,900 亿美元的非苹果股票和第三季度末持有的 1,490 亿美元现金，伯克希尔（包括其苹果股份）今天的估值为 3,110 亿美元。投资者从这项投资中获得了 260 亿美元的营业收入和 50 亿美元的苹果收入，总计 310 亿美元——因此，一旦我们扣除现金和非苹果股票，苹果的交易价格将是当前利润的 10 倍。换句话说，投资者以营业利润和苹果收益的形式从苹果获得每股13.70美元的收益，除此之外，他们还以现金和伯克希尔持有的非苹果股票的形式获得每股150美元。我相信，为它支付288美元似乎是一笔相当划算的交易。</blockquote> Things get way better in scenario 2, however, where Berkshire sells all of its 900 million shares in Apple and uses the proceeds to buy back $154 billion worth of BRK. This would reduce the share count by 535 million, from 2.26 billion to 1.73 billion. At $288 per share, Berkshire would then be valued at $497 billion. The company would still own $190 billion in non-Apple equities, and $149 billion in cash, but those would be distributed over a significantly lower share count of just 1.73 billion, which would lift the per-share value to $196. Berkshire would also still generate $26 billion in operating profits, but the $5 billion in Apple profits would have vanished. The $26 billion in operating profits, distributed over 1.73 billion shares, would total $15.03, however. We see that, if Berkshire were to sell all its Apple shares and use all of the proceeds to reduce its share count by 24%, its per-share value should rise dramatically. Not only would the value of its cash and non-Apple investments rise from $150 per share to $196 per share, but its operating earnings (including the look-through Apple earnings in scenario 1) would also rise from $13.70 to $15.03. If Apple were to trade at a similar operating earnings multiple of around 10 in scenario 2, its per share value would climb from $288 in scenario 1 to $346 in scenario 2 ($196 of non-Apple equities and cash, and $150 for its operating businesses), all else equal. If we assume that a 10x earnings multiple for Berkshire's operating businesses is too low, and that they should be valued at a higher multiple, the impact is even larger.<blockquote>然而，在情景 2 中，情况会好得多，伯克希尔出售其在苹果的全部 9 亿股股票，并用所得收益回购价值 1,540 亿美元的 BRK。这将使股票数量减少5.35亿股，从22.6亿股减少到17.3亿股。按每股 288 美元计算，伯克希尔的估值将达到 4970 亿美元。该公司仍将持有 1,900 亿美元的非苹果股票和 1,490 亿美元的现金，但这些资金将分配给仅 17.3 亿美元的少得多的股票，这将使每股价值提高到 196 美元。伯克希尔仍将产生 260 亿美元的营业利润，但苹果的 50 亿美元利润将消失。然而，260亿美元的营业利润分配给17.3亿股股票，总计15.03美元。我们看到，如果伯克希尔出售其所有苹果股票，并用所有收益将其股票数量减少 24%，其每股价值应该会大幅上升。不仅其现金和非苹果投资的价值将从每股 150 美元升至每股 196 美元，而且其营业收益（包括情景 1 中的透视苹果收益）也将从 13.70 美元升至 15.03 美元。如果苹果在情景 2 中的营业市盈率约为 10，其每股价值将从情景 1 中的 288 美元攀升至情景 2 中的 346 美元（非苹果股票和现金为 196 美元，运营业务为 150 美元），其他条件相同。如果我们假设伯克希尔运营业务的 10 倍市盈率太低，而它们的估值应该更高，那么影响就更大了。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> Apple has been a great investment for Berkshire, but that does not mean that holding shares is the best idea. When Berkshire bought into AAPL, Apple was very inexpensive and out of favor. Today, Apple is pretty expensive, which makes it a way worse investment. At the same time, Berkshire itself is pretty inexpensive today, once we account for the Apple stake, other equity positions, and the large cash pile.<blockquote>苹果对伯克希尔来说是一项很好的投资，但这并不意味着持有股票是最好的主意。当伯克希尔收购苹果时，苹果非常便宜，不受欢迎。如今，苹果相当昂贵，这使得它成为一项更糟糕的投资。与此同时，如果我们考虑到苹果的股份、其他股权头寸和大量现金，伯克希尔本身今天相当便宜。</blockquote> Berkshire has shown that they are willing to take advantage of the low valuation BRK trades at by buying back shares at a rapid pace. Monetizing the overvalued Apple stake in order to ramp up buybacks further could create significant value for Berkshire's shareholders, and it would, at the same time, reduce risks from both a valuation perspective and since management would use the money to invest into the company it knows best - Berkshire.<blockquote>伯克希尔已经表明，他们愿意通过快速回购股票来利用 BRK 的低估值。将被高估的苹果股份货币化以进一步加大回购力度，可以为伯克希尔的股东创造巨大价值，同时，从估值角度来看，也可以降低风险，因为管理层将用这笔钱投资于它最了解的公司——伯克希尔。</blockquote> Selling/monetizing the currently overvalued Apple stake and using the proceeds to buy up undervalued Berkshire shares would thus be a good idea that should generate considerable shareholder value, I believe.<blockquote>因此，我认为，出售/货币化目前被高估的苹果股份，并利用收益购买被低估的伯克希尔股票将是一个好主意，应该会产生可观的股东价值。</blockquote> This article was written by&nbsp;Jonathan Weber.<blockquote>本文由乔纳森·韦伯撰写。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Buffett Should Sell Berkshire's Apple Stake<blockquote>为什么巴菲特应该出售伯克希尔在苹果的股份</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Buffett Should Sell Berkshire's Apple Stake<blockquote>为什么巴菲特应该出售伯克希尔在苹果的股份</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-22 13:56\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Apple has been a strong buy when Berkshire made its first investment. Today, things are very different - instead of cheap and out of favor, AAPL is very expensive.</li> <li>Berkshire has shown that they are willing to capitalize on low BRK valuations by buying back shares when they are undervalued.</li> <li>Selling overvalued AAPL and using the proceeds to buy undervalued BRK could generate significant shareholder value for Berkshire's investors, I believe.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c50b6ba612256ee64eedf00f7b274a61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Paul Morigi/Getty Images Entertainment<blockquote><ul><li>当伯克希尔进行第一笔投资时，苹果一直是大力买入的股票。如今，情况大不相同——AAPL 不再便宜且失宠，而是非常昂贵。</li><li>伯克希尔已经表明，他们愿意在 BRK 估值被低估时通过回购股票来利用较低的估值。</li><li>我相信，出售被高估的 AAPL 并用所得款项购买被低估的 BRK，可以为伯克希尔的投资者带来巨大的股东价值。</li></ul>保罗·莫里吉/盖蒂图片社娱乐</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Apple's (AAPL) shares are pretty expensive, and the company is entering a period of lower growth if analysts are correct. This means that it could be an opportune time for investors to sell shares to lock in gain - this also holds true for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B), which is a major shareholder. Berkshire could use the proceeds to ramp up its already healthy buybacks further, which would be immensely accretive at current valuations.<blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 的股价相当昂贵，如果分析师正确的话，该公司正在进入一个增长放缓的时期。这意味着投资者可能是出售股票以锁定收益的好时机——主要股东伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 (BRK.A) (BRK.B) 也是如此。伯克希尔可以利用这笔收益进一步加大其本已健康的回购力度，以目前的估值计算，这将带来巨大的增值。</blockquote> Why It Could Be Opportune To Lock In Gains In Apple<blockquote>为什么锁定苹果收益是合适的</blockquote> Last week, I wrote a longer&nbsp;article on Apple&nbsp;and why I believe that shares are currently trading above fair value. The quick recap is that Apple is trading at the highest valuation in a long period of time, no matter whether we look at its earnings multiple, its EV to EBITDA ratio, or its cash flow yield. The EV/EBITDA multiple is most telling, I believe, as it accounts for changes in debt usage and in Apple's cash position over the years:<blockquote>上周，我写了一篇关于苹果以及为什么我认为股票交易目前高于公允价值的较长文章。快速回顾一下，无论我们查看其市盈率、EV 与 EBITDA 比率还是现金流收益率，苹果的交易估值都处于很长一段时间以来的最高水平。我认为，EV/EBITDA 倍数最能说明问题，因为它考虑了多年来债务使用和苹果现金状况的变化：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e6b5d51759ba11c78d02d04731e19a2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> At easily more than twice the historical valuation, AAPL is pretty expensive. At the same time, Apple is entering a period of&nbsp;slower growth, according to the analyst community, since the iPhone and iPad lines are not generating significant business growth any longer, while the Apple Car is likely still years away. The combination of an above-average valuation and a below-average growth rate, combined with weaker tailwinds from buybacks (which are less effective at the current high valuation), means that Apple could be poised for underperformance going forward, which is why I believe that locking in gains could make a lot of sense.<blockquote>AAPL 的估值轻松超过历史估值的两倍，相当昂贵。与此同时，分析师表示，苹果正在进入一个增长放缓的时期，因为 iPhone 和 iPad 产品线不再产生显着的业务增长，而苹果汽车可能还需要数年时间。高于平均水平的估值和低于平均水平的增长率，再加上回购带来的较弱推动力（在当前的高估值下效果较差），意味着苹果未来可能会出现表现不佳的情况，这就是为什么我相信锁定收益可能很有意义。</blockquote> Berkshire's Apple Investment<blockquote>伯克希尔的苹果投资</blockquote> Berkshire Hathaway first started to buy into Apple in 2016. At that time, Apple was trading at a completely different valuation compared to today:<blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司于 2016 年首次开始收购苹果。当时，苹果的交易估值与今天完全不同：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14b39fa01fe2ec9423cdac40d8fb1684\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Shares traded for 10-14x net profits, and at 7-9x EBITDA - not at all comparable to the 30x net earnings multiple and 24x EBITDA multiple AAPL trades at today. In other words, Buffett has, as could be expected, identified Apple as a strong investment when it was very inexpensive - following his \"Value\" approach. Right now, however, Apple is far from a value pick and instead seems pretty pricey, especially when we account for its not very convincing near-term growth outlook - forecasted EPS growth over the next couple of years ranges from just 2%-8% (linked above).<blockquote>股票交易价格为净利润的 10-14 倍，EBITDA 为 7-9 倍，根本无法与 AAPL 今天交易的 30 倍净利润倍数和 24 倍 EBITDA 倍数相提并论。换句话说，正如人们所预料的那样，巴菲特在苹果非常便宜的时候就将其确定为一项强有力的投资——遵循他的“价值”方法。然而，目前苹果远非价值之选，反而显得相当昂贵，尤其是当我们考虑到其不太令人信服的近期增长前景时——未来几年的每股收益预测增长率仅为 2%-8%（链接如上）。</blockquote> Per Berkshire's most recent 10-Q filing, the company held $128 billion worth of Apple stock on September 30:<blockquote>根据伯克希尔最新的 10-Q 文件，该公司截至 9 月 30 日持有价值 1280 亿美元的苹果股票：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09f96108345a43e1eda784e61ff7ee2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: BRK 10-Q<blockquote>资料来源：BRK 10-Q</blockquote> Apple's share price on that date was $142, from which we can infer that Berkshire held around 900 million shares of Apple at the end of the third quarter. Assuming that there were no sales and no buys since then, those same 900 million shares are worth around $154 billion at a current share price of $171 - at the recent peak of $182, the position had a value of $164 billion.<blockquote>苹果当天的股价为142美元，由此我们可以推断伯克希尔在第三季度末持有约9亿股苹果股票。假设此后没有出售或购买，那么按当前 171 美元的股价计算，这 9 亿股股票的价值约为 1,540 亿美元——在最近 182 美元的峰值时，该头寸的价值为 1,640 亿美元。</blockquote> What does Berkshire get out of that $154 billion investment right now? Based on Apple's dividend of $0.22 per share per quarter, Berkshire receives about $790 million a year in dividends - this sounds like quite a lot, but relative to the massive size of the investment, it's just a yield of ~0.5% - the same yield all other Apple shareholders get. On top of that, Berkshire also gets a portion of Apple's other profits, of course. Some of those are paid out via buybacks, which make for a theoretical pro-forma return of around $4.5 billion to Berkshire every year, based on Apple's trailing twelve-month buyback yield of 2.9% (per YCharts). Shareholder returns thus total a little more than $5 billion a year (Berkshire's portion), for a yield of slightly above 3% - still not too great, I believe. Of course, Apple can also generate profits that are not paid out to shareholders, but that are, instead, reinvested to grow the business, e.g. via R&amp;D spending or capital expenditures. In recent years, however, that was not an especially large portion - with an earnings yield of just above 3%, based on estimates for the current fiscal year, and with buybacks and dividends totaling 3.4%, Apple isn't actually retaining any earnings right now.<blockquote>伯克希尔现在从这1540亿美元的投资中得到了什么？根据苹果每季度每股 0.22 美元的股息计算，伯克希尔每年可获得约 7.9 亿美元的股息 - 这听起来很多，但相对于巨大的投资规模，收益率仅为约 0.5% - 所有其他苹果股东获得的收益率相同。除此之外，伯克希尔还获得了苹果其他利润的一部分。其中一些是通过回购支付的，根据苹果过去 12 个月 2.9% 的回购收益率（根据 YCharts）计算，每年为伯克希尔带来的理论备考回报约为 45 亿美元。因此，股东回报总额每年略高于 50 亿美元（伯克希尔的部分），收益率略高于 3%——我认为仍然不算太高。当然，苹果也可以产生不支付给股东的利润，而是再投资以发展业务，例如通过R&amp;D支出或资本支出。然而，近年来，这并不是一个特别大的部分——根据本财年的预测，市盈率略高于 3%，回购和股息总计 3.4%，苹果实际上并没有保留任何收益现在。</blockquote> Looking at the shareholder return picture, or alternatively using the concept of \"look-through earnings\" - Berkshire's portion of Apple's profits - gets us to a relatively similar picture: Apple's earnings per share are forecasted at $5.70 during the current year - a 900 million share position thus generates theoretical profits of $5.1 billion for Apple. In both cases, whether we focus on actual shareholder returns or on the look-through profit concept, the return picture is comparable - Berkshire gets about $5 billion a year for a $150+ billion investment.<blockquote>看看股东回报情况，或者使用“透视收益”的概念（伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在苹果利润中的份额），我们会看到一个相对相似的情况：苹果今年的每股收益预计为 5.70 美元——因此，9 亿股头寸为苹果带来了 51 亿美元的理论利润。在这两种情况下，无论我们关注实际股东回报还是透视利润概念，回报情况都是可比的——伯克希尔每年通过 1500 多亿美元的投资获得约 50 亿美元。</blockquote> This does, I believe, not generate an adequate return on investment, especially when we consider that the value of Berkshire's Apple investment could easily drop by tens of billions of dollars if Apple's valuation ever reverted back towards historical norms. A 20x earnings multiple for Apple, which would still be above the 10-year median earnings multiple (16, per YCharts), would see shares drop to ~$115, which would result in $52 billion in equity losses for Berkshire's AAPL position relative to how the position is valued today.<blockquote>我认为，这并没有产生足够的投资回报，尤其是当我们考虑到如果苹果的估值恢复到历史常态，伯克希尔在苹果的投资价值可能会轻松下降数百亿美元时。苹果的 20 倍市盈率仍高于 10 年市盈率中位数（根据 YCharts 的数据为 16 倍），股价将跌至约 115 美元，这将导致伯克希尔的 AAPL 头寸遭受 520 亿美元的股权损失相对于该头寸目前的估值。</blockquote> Creating More Value For Shareholders<blockquote>为股东创造更多价值</blockquote> If Apple is trading at a price that could justify locking in gains, this brings up an important question: What would Berkshire do with the proceeds if it were to sell its stake? I believe that there is a pretty good answer to that - they could use it to buy an excellent company trading at an inexpensive valuation. The company in question is one that management knows extremely well - it's Berkshire Hathaway.<blockquote>如果苹果的交易价格可以证明锁定收益是合理的，这就引出了一个重要问题：如果伯克希尔出售其股份，它将如何处理收益？我相信这个问题有一个很好的答案——他们可以用它来收购一家以低廉估值交易的优秀公司。这家公司是管理层非常了解的公司——伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。</blockquote> Berkshire Hathaway has been buying back its own shares at a considerable pace in recent quarters, which shows that management clearly likes the idea of buybacks, and that they deem BRK a good value at current prices - otherwise a great capital allocator, such as Warren Buffett, wouldn't spend billions on buybacks today:<blockquote>伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司最近几个季度一直在以相当快的速度回购自己的股票，这表明管理层显然喜欢回购的想法，并且他们认为 BRK 在当前价格下物有所值——否则像沃伦·巴菲特这样的伟大资本配置者今天不会花费数十亿美元进行回购：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/698ffef8c32981fa0d60f5e7a29f6726\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Berkshire has traded in the $280 to $300 range for more than half a year, and Berkshire has continued to spend billions of dollars on buybacks in that time frame, so it seems pretty obvious that Buffett sees Berkshire as an attractive value in that range. When we consider that Berkshire's book value has most likely risen in recent months, due to equity markets climbing and due to operating profits, BRK could be an even better deal today.<blockquote>半年多来，伯克希尔的交易价格一直在 280 美元至 300 美元之间，而且伯克希尔在这段时间内继续花费数十亿美元进行回购，因此巴菲特认为伯克希尔在该范围内具有吸引力的价值似乎非常明显。当我们考虑到由于股市攀升和营业利润，伯克希尔的账面价值很可能在最近几个月上升时，BRK 今天可能是一笔更好的交易。</blockquote> Let's look at what selling the Apple stake and using the proceeds for buybacks could do for Berkshire and its shareholders. The Apple stake is worth $154 billion, and as established earlier, Berkshire generates about $5 billion a year from that. Berkshire's operating businesses generated about&nbsp;$6.5 billion&nbsp;during the most recent quarter, or $26 billion a year (assuming no future growth). Berkshire's equity portfolio, excluding Apple, was worth $183 billion at the end of the third quarter. The S&amp;P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY)&nbsp;has risen by 6% since then, so let's assume that the equity portfolio, without the Apple stake, is worth around $190 billion today (4% growth to be conservative). Let's now look at two scenarios.<blockquote>让我们看看出售苹果股份并将收益用于回购可以为伯克希尔及其股东带来什么。苹果的股份价值 1,540 亿美元，正如之前确定的那样，伯克希尔每年从中获得约 50 亿美元的收入。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司最近一个季度的运营业务创造了约 65 亿美元的收入，即每年 260 亿美元（假设未来没有增长）。截至第三季度末，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票投资组合（不包括苹果）价值 1,830 亿美元。自那时以来，标普500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) 已上涨 6%，因此让我们假设股票投资组合（不包括苹果股份）今天的价值约为 1900 亿美元（保守来说增长 4%）。现在让我们看两个场景。</blockquote> In the first scenario, the Apple investment is held and we also assume that other equity investments, as well as the cash position, are held. When we further assume that other equities are fairly valued, we can subtract those from Berkshire's current market capitalization to \"net them out\".<blockquote>在第一种情况下，持有苹果投资，我们还假设持有其他股权投资以及现金头寸。当我们进一步假设其他股票估值合理时，我们可以从伯克希尔当前的市值中减去这些股票来“净化它们”。</blockquote> In that case, Berkshire, including its Apple stake, is valued at $311 billion today, once we adjust the $650 billion market capitalization for the $190 billion in non-Apple equities, and for the $149 billion in cash held at the end of the third quarter. Investors get $26 billion in operating earnings, and $5 billion in Apple earnings for that investment, which makes for a $31 billion total - Apple is thus, once we net out cash and non-Apple equities, trading at 10x current profits. In other words, investors get $13.70 in earnings per share from Apple in the form of operating profits and Apple earnings, and they get $150 per share in the form of cash and non-Apple equities held at Berkshire on top of that. Paying $288 for that seems like a pretty good deal, I believe.<blockquote>在这种情况下，一旦我们将 6,500 亿美元的市值调整为 1,900 亿美元的非苹果股票和第三季度末持有的 1,490 亿美元现金，伯克希尔（包括其苹果股份）今天的估值为 3,110 亿美元。投资者从这项投资中获得了 260 亿美元的营业收入和 50 亿美元的苹果收入，总计 310 亿美元——因此，一旦我们扣除现金和非苹果股票，苹果的交易价格将是当前利润的 10 倍。换句话说，投资者以营业利润和苹果收益的形式从苹果获得每股13.70美元的收益，除此之外，他们还以现金和伯克希尔持有的非苹果股票的形式获得每股150美元。我相信，为它支付288美元似乎是一笔相当划算的交易。</blockquote> Things get way better in scenario 2, however, where Berkshire sells all of its 900 million shares in Apple and uses the proceeds to buy back $154 billion worth of BRK. This would reduce the share count by 535 million, from 2.26 billion to 1.73 billion. At $288 per share, Berkshire would then be valued at $497 billion. The company would still own $190 billion in non-Apple equities, and $149 billion in cash, but those would be distributed over a significantly lower share count of just 1.73 billion, which would lift the per-share value to $196. Berkshire would also still generate $26 billion in operating profits, but the $5 billion in Apple profits would have vanished. The $26 billion in operating profits, distributed over 1.73 billion shares, would total $15.03, however. We see that, if Berkshire were to sell all its Apple shares and use all of the proceeds to reduce its share count by 24%, its per-share value should rise dramatically. Not only would the value of its cash and non-Apple investments rise from $150 per share to $196 per share, but its operating earnings (including the look-through Apple earnings in scenario 1) would also rise from $13.70 to $15.03. If Apple were to trade at a similar operating earnings multiple of around 10 in scenario 2, its per share value would climb from $288 in scenario 1 to $346 in scenario 2 ($196 of non-Apple equities and cash, and $150 for its operating businesses), all else equal. If we assume that a 10x earnings multiple for Berkshire's operating businesses is too low, and that they should be valued at a higher multiple, the impact is even larger.<blockquote>然而，在情景 2 中，情况会好得多，伯克希尔出售其在苹果的全部 9 亿股股票，并用所得收益回购价值 1,540 亿美元的 BRK。这将使股票数量减少5.35亿股，从22.6亿股减少到17.3亿股。按每股 288 美元计算，伯克希尔的估值将达到 4970 亿美元。该公司仍将持有 1,900 亿美元的非苹果股票和 1,490 亿美元的现金，但这些资金将分配给仅 17.3 亿美元的少得多的股票，这将使每股价值提高到 196 美元。伯克希尔仍将产生 260 亿美元的营业利润，但苹果的 50 亿美元利润将消失。然而，260亿美元的营业利润分配给17.3亿股股票，总计15.03美元。我们看到，如果伯克希尔出售其所有苹果股票，并用所有收益将其股票数量减少 24%，其每股价值应该会大幅上升。不仅其现金和非苹果投资的价值将从每股 150 美元升至每股 196 美元，而且其营业收益（包括情景 1 中的透视苹果收益）也将从 13.70 美元升至 15.03 美元。如果苹果在情景 2 中的营业市盈率约为 10，其每股价值将从情景 1 中的 288 美元攀升至情景 2 中的 346 美元（非苹果股票和现金为 196 美元，运营业务为 150 美元），其他条件相同。如果我们假设伯克希尔运营业务的 10 倍市盈率太低，而它们的估值应该更高，那么影响就更大了。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> Apple has been a great investment for Berkshire, but that does not mean that holding shares is the best idea. When Berkshire bought into AAPL, Apple was very inexpensive and out of favor. Today, Apple is pretty expensive, which makes it a way worse investment. At the same time, Berkshire itself is pretty inexpensive today, once we account for the Apple stake, other equity positions, and the large cash pile.<blockquote>苹果对伯克希尔来说是一项很好的投资，但这并不意味着持有股票是最好的主意。当伯克希尔收购苹果时，苹果非常便宜，不受欢迎。如今，苹果相当昂贵，这使得它成为一项更糟糕的投资。与此同时，如果我们考虑到苹果的股份、其他股权头寸和大量现金，伯克希尔本身今天相当便宜。</blockquote> Berkshire has shown that they are willing to take advantage of the low valuation BRK trades at by buying back shares at a rapid pace. Monetizing the overvalued Apple stake in order to ramp up buybacks further could create significant value for Berkshire's shareholders, and it would, at the same time, reduce risks from both a valuation perspective and since management would use the money to invest into the company it knows best - Berkshire.<blockquote>伯克希尔已经表明，他们愿意通过快速回购股票来利用 BRK 的低估值。将被高估的苹果股份货币化以进一步加大回购力度，可以为伯克希尔的股东创造巨大价值，同时，从估值角度来看，也可以降低风险，因为管理层将用这笔钱投资于它最了解的公司——伯克希尔。</blockquote> Selling/monetizing the currently overvalued Apple stake and using the proceeds to buy up undervalued Berkshire shares would thus be a good idea that should generate considerable shareholder value, I believe.<blockquote>因此，我认为，出售/货币化目前被高估的苹果股份，并利用收益购买被低估的伯克希尔股票将是一个好主意，应该会产生可观的股东价值。</blockquote> This article was written by&nbsp;Jonathan Weber.<blockquote>本文由乔纳森·韦伯撰写。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476181-why-buffett-should-sell-berkshires-apple-stake\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476181-why-buffett-should-sell-berkshires-apple-stake","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101145405","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a strong buy when Berkshire made its first investment. Today, things are very different - instead of cheap and out of favor, AAPL is very expensive.\nBerkshire has shown that they are willing to capitalize on low BRK valuations by buying back shares when they are undervalued.\nSelling overvalued AAPL and using the proceeds to buy undervalued BRK could generate significant shareholder value for Berkshire's investors, I believe.\n\nPaul Morigi/Getty Images Entertainment\nArticle Thesis\nApple's (AAPL) shares are pretty expensive, and the company is entering a period of lower growth if analysts are correct. This means that it could be an opportune time for investors to sell shares to lock in gain - this also holds true for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B), which is a major shareholder. Berkshire could use the proceeds to ramp up its already healthy buybacks further, which would be immensely accretive at current valuations.\nWhy It Could Be Opportune To Lock In Gains In Apple\nLast week, I wrote a longer article on Apple and why I believe that shares are currently trading above fair value. The quick recap is that Apple is trading at the highest valuation in a long period of time, no matter whether we look at its earnings multiple, its EV to EBITDA ratio, or its cash flow yield. The EV/EBITDA multiple is most telling, I believe, as it accounts for changes in debt usage and in Apple's cash position over the years:\nData by YCharts\nAt easily more than twice the historical valuation, AAPL is pretty expensive. At the same time, Apple is entering a period of slower growth, according to the analyst community, since the iPhone and iPad lines are not generating significant business growth any longer, while the Apple Car is likely still years away. The combination of an above-average valuation and a below-average growth rate, combined with weaker tailwinds from buybacks (which are less effective at the current high valuation), means that Apple could be poised for underperformance going forward, which is why I believe that locking in gains could make a lot of sense.\nBerkshire's Apple Investment\nBerkshire Hathaway first started to buy into Apple in 2016. At that time, Apple was trading at a completely different valuation compared to today:\nData by YCharts\nShares traded for 10-14x net profits, and at 7-9x EBITDA - not at all comparable to the 30x net earnings multiple and 24x EBITDA multiple AAPL trades at today. In other words, Buffett has, as could be expected, identified Apple as a strong investment when it was very inexpensive - following his \"Value\" approach. Right now, however, Apple is far from a value pick and instead seems pretty pricey, especially when we account for its not very convincing near-term growth outlook - forecasted EPS growth over the next couple of years ranges from just 2%-8% (linked above).\nPer Berkshire's most recent 10-Q filing, the company held $128 billion worth of Apple stock on September 30:\nSource: BRK 10-Q\nApple's share price on that date was $142, from which we can infer that Berkshire held around 900 million shares of Apple at the end of the third quarter. Assuming that there were no sales and no buys since then, those same 900 million shares are worth around $154 billion at a current share price of $171 - at the recent peak of $182, the position had a value of $164 billion.\nWhat does Berkshire get out of that $154 billion investment right now? Based on Apple's dividend of $0.22 per share per quarter, Berkshire receives about $790 million a year in dividends - this sounds like quite a lot, but relative to the massive size of the investment, it's just a yield of ~0.5% - the same yield all other Apple shareholders get. On top of that, Berkshire also gets a portion of Apple's other profits, of course. Some of those are paid out via buybacks, which make for a theoretical pro-forma return of around $4.5 billion to Berkshire every year, based on Apple's trailing twelve-month buyback yield of 2.9% (per YCharts). Shareholder returns thus total a little more than $5 billion a year (Berkshire's portion), for a yield of slightly above 3% - still not too great, I believe. Of course, Apple can also generate profits that are not paid out to shareholders, but that are, instead, reinvested to grow the business, e.g. via R&D spending or capital expenditures. In recent years, however, that was not an especially large portion - with an earnings yield of just above 3%, based on estimates for the current fiscal year, and with buybacks and dividends totaling 3.4%, Apple isn't actually retaining any earnings right now.\nLooking at the shareholder return picture, or alternatively using the concept of \"look-through earnings\" - Berkshire's portion of Apple's profits - gets us to a relatively similar picture: Apple's earnings per share are forecasted at $5.70 during the current year - a 900 million share position thus generates theoretical profits of $5.1 billion for Apple. In both cases, whether we focus on actual shareholder returns or on the look-through profit concept, the return picture is comparable - Berkshire gets about $5 billion a year for a $150+ billion investment.\nThis does, I believe, not generate an adequate return on investment, especially when we consider that the value of Berkshire's Apple investment could easily drop by tens of billions of dollars if Apple's valuation ever reverted back towards historical norms. A 20x earnings multiple for Apple, which would still be above the 10-year median earnings multiple (16, per YCharts), would see shares drop to ~$115, which would result in $52 billion in equity losses for Berkshire's AAPL position relative to how the position is valued today.\nCreating More Value For Shareholders\nIf Apple is trading at a price that could justify locking in gains, this brings up an important question: What would Berkshire do with the proceeds if it were to sell its stake? I believe that there is a pretty good answer to that - they could use it to buy an excellent company trading at an inexpensive valuation. The company in question is one that management knows extremely well - it's Berkshire Hathaway.\nBerkshire Hathaway has been buying back its own shares at a considerable pace in recent quarters, which shows that management clearly likes the idea of buybacks, and that they deem BRK a good value at current prices - otherwise a great capital allocator, such as Warren Buffett, wouldn't spend billions on buybacks today:\nData by YCharts\nBerkshire has traded in the $280 to $300 range for more than half a year, and Berkshire has continued to spend billions of dollars on buybacks in that time frame, so it seems pretty obvious that Buffett sees Berkshire as an attractive value in that range. When we consider that Berkshire's book value has most likely risen in recent months, due to equity markets climbing and due to operating profits, BRK could be an even better deal today.\nLet's look at what selling the Apple stake and using the proceeds for buybacks could do for Berkshire and its shareholders. The Apple stake is worth $154 billion, and as established earlier, Berkshire generates about $5 billion a year from that. Berkshire's operating businesses generated about $6.5 billion during the most recent quarter, or $26 billion a year (assuming no future growth). Berkshire's equity portfolio, excluding Apple, was worth $183 billion at the end of the third quarter. The S&P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY) has risen by 6% since then, so let's assume that the equity portfolio, without the Apple stake, is worth around $190 billion today (4% growth to be conservative). Let's now look at two scenarios.\nIn the first scenario, the Apple investment is held and we also assume that other equity investments, as well as the cash position, are held. When we further assume that other equities are fairly valued, we can subtract those from Berkshire's current market capitalization to \"net them out\".\nIn that case, Berkshire, including its Apple stake, is valued at $311 billion today, once we adjust the $650 billion market capitalization for the $190 billion in non-Apple equities, and for the $149 billion in cash held at the end of the third quarter. Investors get $26 billion in operating earnings, and $5 billion in Apple earnings for that investment, which makes for a $31 billion total - Apple is thus, once we net out cash and non-Apple equities, trading at 10x current profits. In other words, investors get $13.70 in earnings per share from Apple in the form of operating profits and Apple earnings, and they get $150 per share in the form of cash and non-Apple equities held at Berkshire on top of that. Paying $288 for that seems like a pretty good deal, I believe.\nThings get way better in scenario 2, however, where Berkshire sells all of its 900 million shares in Apple and uses the proceeds to buy back $154 billion worth of BRK. This would reduce the share count by 535 million, from 2.26 billion to 1.73 billion. At $288 per share, Berkshire would then be valued at $497 billion. The company would still own $190 billion in non-Apple equities, and $149 billion in cash, but those would be distributed over a significantly lower share count of just 1.73 billion, which would lift the per-share value to $196. Berkshire would also still generate $26 billion in operating profits, but the $5 billion in Apple profits would have vanished. The $26 billion in operating profits, distributed over 1.73 billion shares, would total $15.03, however. We see that, if Berkshire were to sell all its Apple shares and use all of the proceeds to reduce its share count by 24%, its per-share value should rise dramatically. Not only would the value of its cash and non-Apple investments rise from $150 per share to $196 per share, but its operating earnings (including the look-through Apple earnings in scenario 1) would also rise from $13.70 to $15.03. If Apple were to trade at a similar operating earnings multiple of around 10 in scenario 2, its per share value would climb from $288 in scenario 1 to $346 in scenario 2 ($196 of non-Apple equities and cash, and $150 for its operating businesses), all else equal. If we assume that a 10x earnings multiple for Berkshire's operating businesses is too low, and that they should be valued at a higher multiple, the impact is even larger.\nTakeaway\nApple has been a great investment for Berkshire, but that does not mean that holding shares is the best idea. When Berkshire bought into AAPL, Apple was very inexpensive and out of favor. Today, Apple is pretty expensive, which makes it a way worse investment. At the same time, Berkshire itself is pretty inexpensive today, once we account for the Apple stake, other equity positions, and the large cash pile.\nBerkshire has shown that they are willing to take advantage of the low valuation BRK trades at by buying back shares at a rapid pace. Monetizing the overvalued Apple stake in order to ramp up buybacks further could create significant value for Berkshire's shareholders, and it would, at the same time, reduce risks from both a valuation perspective and since management would use the money to invest into the company it knows best - Berkshire.\nSelling/monetizing the currently overvalued Apple stake and using the proceeds to buy up undervalued Berkshire shares would thus be a good idea that should generate considerable shareholder value, I believe.\nThis article was written by Jonathan Weber.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1461,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":63,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/691833665"}