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2021-12-30
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Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":692123196,"tweetId":"692123196","gmtCreate":1640877840963,"gmtModify":1640877845605,"author":{"id":3574846858482552,"idStr":"3574846858482552","authorId":3574846858482552,"authorIdStr":"3574846858482552","name":"newbiee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52066c922d6c53b542a87db244dd75a3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":23,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>O</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>O</p></body></html>","text":"O","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692123196","repostId":1106092668,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106092668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640876653,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1106092668?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106092668","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited 股价早盘上涨超过 4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解近期抛售情况</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited 是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售情况并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为 Sea 是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对 Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）各部门的部分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长驱动力可能会带来惊喜，并在未来几年带来非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我 2022 年的十大精选股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为以一篇关于海洋的文章来结束这一年会很好。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不猜测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了我的Sea股票。这是我为数不多的亏损头寸之一，我没有为了税收损失而暂时卖出，在这篇文章中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此高的信念。</blockquote></p><p>It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea 是全球第 121 大公司，但在对冲基金中却是第 16 大最受欢迎的持股。这意味着，大钱是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份由机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于 Sea 在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在未来几年内推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 的游戏部门 Garena 以内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有Android游戏中拥有第二多的月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内发售，但在东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、部落冲突和Pokemon Go——但还有更多的游戏被遗忘了。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也能成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个一鸣惊人的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena 是 Sea 的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是一个为 Sea 非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea 最近抛售的原因之一可能是 Garena 暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：盈利看涨期权演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena 将 2021 年预订指引上调至 $4.5B-$4.7B（从 $4.3B-$4.5B）。前三个季度的预订总额已经达到$3.5B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0B-$1.2B，同比增长0%至20%，并可能随后下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为 29%，全年的预计增长率为 44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然 20% 并不是可怕的减速，但 0% 肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是 20% 的增长也并不引人注目。在 10% 的中点，Garena 的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或 Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是 Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena 的隐含估值应该——而且确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena 的利润比他们略高，上行风险可能更大，因此我将使用 5 倍的市盈率作为我的隐含估值。这意味着对于一个以10%左右的速度增长的企业来说，市盈率约为10，这在当今的市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层的高端指导，Garena 的价值为 $23.5B。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，未来几年甚至明年的增长可能会再次加速，特别是如果Garena发布了一款新的热门游戏。下一季度的增长率并非基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自过去一年也处于估值范围低端的公司。</li><li>Garena有着良好的业绩记录，并继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至增加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着 Garena 认为 Free Fire 仍处于生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了 Free Fire 之外，Garena 还分发腾讯控股 (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY) 等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命召唤看涨期权》这样的热门游戏，有意义地分散了Garena的收入。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 的电子商务平台 Shopee 目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），最近它扩展到了包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁才是一个地区的真正亚马逊，总有一些争论。Shopee 当然面临着竞争对手，包括阿里巴巴 (NYSE:BABA) 的 Lazada、印度尼西亚的 Tokopedia、巴西的 MercadoLibre (MELI)，甚至亚马逊本身。由于大多数竞争都是私营的或隐藏在一家更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。即使是Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常注重移动端，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store App排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动方面，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个列出的国家排名第一的购物应用程序。在移动优先的世界里，这是一个非常好的兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee 也获胜，除了在拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，它是一个不错的代理。第三方估计，Shopee 占东南亚所有电子商务的 57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额上的主导地位，让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家拥有如此巨大潜力的公司会被抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师表示担心，Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前，正在向波兰和墨西哥等其他国家拓展业务。在这些国家，Shopee的存在较少；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5名之间，在波兰的1-3名之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官评论说他们没有衡量这些早期国家成功的具体措施也无济于事——但 Shopee 有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试扩张更多。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子大小（平均购买大小）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子大小缩小，但整体销售额却大幅增长，这很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前指引 2021 年电子商务收入为 $5.0B-$5.2B。第四季度增长了 75%-100%，全年增长了约 135%。这些数字比游戏方面令人兴奋得多，尽管指导仍然暗示第四季度会略有放缓。但与亚马逊 2020 年 3400 亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee 看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济的增长速度普遍快于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但电子商务部门更难估值，因为它亏损运营（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee 的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低的周期性更强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管无利可图，Sea的40法则104分优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行亚马逊（21）、MercadoLibre（73）和阿里巴巴-SW（43）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为 4 倍。AWS 推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高曝光率抵消了这一数字。其他电子商务市场同行的估值也类似：阿里巴巴-SW市盈率为 3 倍，MercadoLibre 市盈率为 9 倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史最低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Shopee 在未来几年内保持收入翻番（自 2016 年以来，它每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率，那么今天的市盈率为 16 倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等更长的时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整体行业倍数扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为 16 倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或从未盈利，那么投资者会对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于如此广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到 Shopee 在移动领域的主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自 Garena 的资金，以及亚马逊、阿里巴巴-SW和 MercadoLibre 为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功开创的先例时，我对这一细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到目前这是一个无利可图且风险较高的领域，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很乐意支付 16 倍市盈率，这意味着电子商务部门的估值为 83.2B 美元。有些人会把看涨期权定得太高，这些人可能永远不会有机会投资这家公司，不管是好是坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅 Garena 和 Shopee，我的 Sea 价值为 106.7B 美元。其目前的市值为 123.1B 美元。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech & Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对我计算的估值来说，最简单的补充是 Sea 的 120 亿美元现金堆，部分被 40 亿美元债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管在Shopee上亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B的现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7B，仅比实际估值少$8.4B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a "take rate" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是 Sea 的金融科技部门 SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，它在上一季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年内约20亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为 1.32 亿美元，同比增长 818%。这意味着2.9%的“接受率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于如此高的接受率，我并不担心 SeaMoney 在扩展过程中会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 SeaMoney 是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以计入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这仅仅是个开始。五年前，没有人会想到一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天会比游戏部门更有价值。但 Sea 的管理层，加上 Garena 资助新细分市场并推动其病毒式采用的能力，使得这一目标得以实现。当然不能保证Sea会在金融科技方面取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值是Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率有点高16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于 Visa、万事达卡 (NYSE:MA) 和 Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM)。实际上，一个同比增长 818% 的细分市场可能会获得比这些增长较慢的公司更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测公平的市盈率是多少，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用 16 倍市盈率来达到 Sea 目前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started "early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech." These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一种方式是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea 在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务领域采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea 正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是 Sea 投资者）和 Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这有着良好的先例。目前Sea的投资部门还处于非常早期的阶段，所以我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但这并不一定要被考虑在内来证明当前的股价是合理的。这只是有一天可能值得一大片海洋的又一个区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>查看 Sea 的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明 Sea 目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到较新细分市场的显著可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的很大一部分。随着金融科技领域目前的年增长率为818%，不需要太多的想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，金融科技领域就会让投资者无法忽视。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择结合了每项业务的整体实力，使得 Sea 在过去一年的平均收入增长了 7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将是我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数不盈利的公司一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但是，即使你把电子商务一路降到5倍市盈率（这是今天增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司看到的倍数），这也意味着比今天的价格下降了54%。这肯定是一个急剧下降，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会面临这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像 Sea 这样的快速增长的公司才能通过收入增长快速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业几乎不会以最保守的估值进行交易。海洋当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我可以看到这些公司在本十年内市值达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-30 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited 股价早盘上涨超过 4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解近期抛售情况</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited 是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售情况并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为 Sea 是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对 Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）各部门的部分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长驱动力可能会带来惊喜，并在未来几年带来非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我 2022 年的十大精选股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为以一篇关于海洋的文章来结束这一年会很好。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不猜测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了我的Sea股票。这是我为数不多的亏损头寸之一，我没有为了税收损失而暂时卖出，在这篇文章中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此高的信念。</blockquote></p><p>It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea 是全球第 121 大公司，但在对冲基金中却是第 16 大最受欢迎的持股。这意味着，大钱是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份由机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于 Sea 在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在未来几年内推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 的游戏部门 Garena 以内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有Android游戏中拥有第二多的月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内发售，但在东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、部落冲突和Pokemon Go——但还有更多的游戏被遗忘了。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也能成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个一鸣惊人的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena 是 Sea 的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是一个为 Sea 非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea 最近抛售的原因之一可能是 Garena 暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：盈利看涨期权演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena 将 2021 年预订指引上调至 $4.5B-$4.7B（从 $4.3B-$4.5B）。前三个季度的预订总额已经达到$3.5B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0B-$1.2B，同比增长0%至20%，并可能随后下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为 29%，全年的预计增长率为 44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然 20% 并不是可怕的减速，但 0% 肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是 20% 的增长也并不引人注目。在 10% 的中点，Garena 的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或 Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是 Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena 的隐含估值应该——而且确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena 的利润比他们略高，上行风险可能更大，因此我将使用 5 倍的市盈率作为我的隐含估值。这意味着对于一个以10%左右的速度增长的企业来说，市盈率约为10，这在当今的市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层的高端指导，Garena 的价值为 $23.5B。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，未来几年甚至明年的增长可能会再次加速，特别是如果Garena发布了一款新的热门游戏。下一季度的增长率并非基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自过去一年也处于估值范围低端的公司。</li><li>Garena有着良好的业绩记录，并继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至增加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着 Garena 认为 Free Fire 仍处于生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了 Free Fire 之外，Garena 还分发腾讯控股 (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY) 等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命召唤看涨期权》这样的热门游戏，有意义地分散了Garena的收入。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 的电子商务平台 Shopee 目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），最近它扩展到了包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁才是一个地区的真正亚马逊，总有一些争论。Shopee 当然面临着竞争对手，包括阿里巴巴 (NYSE:BABA) 的 Lazada、印度尼西亚的 Tokopedia、巴西的 MercadoLibre (MELI)，甚至亚马逊本身。由于大多数竞争都是私营的或隐藏在一家更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。即使是Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常注重移动端，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store App排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动方面，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个列出的国家排名第一的购物应用程序。在移动优先的世界里，这是一个非常好的兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee 也获胜，除了在拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，它是一个不错的代理。第三方估计，Shopee 占东南亚所有电子商务的 57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额上的主导地位，让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家拥有如此巨大潜力的公司会被抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师表示担心，Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前，正在向波兰和墨西哥等其他国家拓展业务。在这些国家，Shopee的存在较少；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5名之间，在波兰的1-3名之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官评论说他们没有衡量这些早期国家成功的具体措施也无济于事——但 Shopee 有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试扩张更多。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子大小（平均购买大小）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子大小缩小，但整体销售额却大幅增长，这很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前指引 2021 年电子商务收入为 $5.0B-$5.2B。第四季度增长了 75%-100%，全年增长了约 135%。这些数字比游戏方面令人兴奋得多，尽管指导仍然暗示第四季度会略有放缓。但与亚马逊 2020 年 3400 亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee 看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济的增长速度普遍快于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但电子商务部门更难估值，因为它亏损运营（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee 的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低的周期性更强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管无利可图，Sea的40法则104分优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行亚马逊（21）、MercadoLibre（73）和阿里巴巴-SW（43）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为 4 倍。AWS 推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高曝光率抵消了这一数字。其他电子商务市场同行的估值也类似：阿里巴巴-SW市盈率为 3 倍，MercadoLibre 市盈率为 9 倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史最低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Shopee 在未来几年内保持收入翻番（自 2016 年以来，它每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率，那么今天的市盈率为 16 倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等更长的时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整体行业倍数扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为 16 倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或从未盈利，那么投资者会对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于如此广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到 Shopee 在移动领域的主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自 Garena 的资金，以及亚马逊、阿里巴巴-SW和 MercadoLibre 为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功开创的先例时，我对这一细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到目前这是一个无利可图且风险较高的领域，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很乐意支付 16 倍市盈率，这意味着电子商务部门的估值为 83.2B 美元。有些人会把看涨期权定得太高，这些人可能永远不会有机会投资这家公司，不管是好是坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅 Garena 和 Shopee，我的 Sea 价值为 106.7B 美元。其目前的市值为 123.1B 美元。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech & Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对我计算的估值来说，最简单的补充是 Sea 的 120 亿美元现金堆，部分被 40 亿美元债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管在Shopee上亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B的现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7B，仅比实际估值少$8.4B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a "take rate" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是 Sea 的金融科技部门 SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，它在上一季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年内约20亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为 1.32 亿美元，同比增长 818%。这意味着2.9%的“接受率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于如此高的接受率，我并不担心 SeaMoney 在扩展过程中会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 SeaMoney 是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以计入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这仅仅是个开始。五年前，没有人会想到一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天会比游戏部门更有价值。但 Sea 的管理层，加上 Garena 资助新细分市场并推动其病毒式采用的能力，使得这一目标得以实现。当然不能保证Sea会在金融科技方面取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值是Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率有点高16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于 Visa、万事达卡 (NYSE:MA) 和 Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM)。实际上，一个同比增长 818% 的细分市场可能会获得比这些增长较慢的公司更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测公平的市盈率是多少，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用 16 倍市盈率来达到 Sea 目前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started "early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech." These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一种方式是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea 在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务领域采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea 正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是 Sea 投资者）和 Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这有着良好的先例。目前Sea的投资部门还处于非常早期的阶段，所以我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但这并不一定要被考虑在内来证明当前的股价是合理的。这只是有一天可能值得一大片海洋的又一个区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>查看 Sea 的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明 Sea 目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到较新细分市场的显著可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的很大一部分。随着金融科技领域目前的年增长率为818%，不需要太多的想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，金融科技领域就会让投资者无法忽视。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择结合了每项业务的整体实力，使得 Sea 在过去一年的平均收入增长了 7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将是我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数不盈利的公司一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但是，即使你把电子商务一路降到5倍市盈率（这是今天增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司看到的倍数），这也意味着比今天的价格下降了54%。这肯定是一个急剧下降，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会面临这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像 Sea 这样的快速增长的公司才能通过收入增长快速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业几乎不会以最保守的估值进行交易。海洋当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我可以看到这些公司在本十年内市值达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106092668","content_text":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent SelloffSummarySea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.IntroductionI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.GamingSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.Source: Earnings Call PresentationIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.E-CommerceSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.Source: The Author, compiled from AlexaShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnieOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.So why would a company with so much potential sell off?After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.FinTech & InvestmentsThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.ConclusionLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4703,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/692123196"}
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