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2021-12-30
Palantir go
Palantir: A Rebound May Be In Order With Potentially Stronger-Than-Expected Earnings Ahead<blockquote>Palantir：未来盈利可能强于预期，反弹可能是有序的</blockquote>
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In the first few months that followed its debut on the NYSE last September, the stock had more than tripled in value before the February tech stock selloff wiped out more than one-third of said gains. The stock has largely remained in the sub-$30 level since until Palantir released weaker than expected third quarter results. Signs of slowing revenue growth from the government segment had sent the stock towards the low-$20s, while recent macro headwinds ranging from rising inflation to the resurgence of the Omicron coronavirus variant have led further declines to the sub-$20 level.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大盘在过去一年中表现优异，标普500和以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数在 2021 年前 9 个月均上涨了近 30%，但 Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) 股票同期下跌超过 20%。去年 9 月在纽约证券交易所首次亮相后的头几个月，该股价值上涨了两倍多，但 2 月份科技股抛售抹去了超过三分之一的涨幅。自 Palantir 发布弱于预期的第三季度业绩以来，该股基本保持在 30 美元以下的水平。政府部门收入增长放缓的迹象导致该股跌至 20 美元左右的低点，而最近从通胀上升到奥密克戎冠状病毒变种死灰复燃等宏观阻力导致该股进一步跌至 20 美元以下的水平。</blockquote></p><p>However, revenue growth from Palantir's commercial segment remains robust and should not be overlooked. Businesses are becoming increasingly digital, generating vast troves of data that will need to be integrated, processed and analyzed to drive key decision-making processes. And this trend will continue to propel commercial demand for Palantir's enterprise software solutions. New strategies and modular offerings like the "Foundry for Builders" subscription and "Carbon Emissions Management" tool will also encourage further mass market adoption in the long-run and underpin the segment's continued growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Palantir 商业部门的收入增长仍然强劲，不容忽视。企业正变得越来越数字化，产生了大量需要集成、处理和分析的数据，以推动关键的决策过程。这一趋势将继续推动 Palantir 企业软件解决方案的商业需求。从长远来看，“Foundry for Builders”订阅和“碳排放管理”工具等新战略和模块化产品也将鼓励进一步的大众市场采用，并支撑该细分市场的持续增长。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, a rebound in government segment revenues appears to be in order this quarter. The recent slew of contract wins and extensions is a testament to the effectiveness of Palantir's software solutions and continued demand from the public sector.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，本季度政府部门收入似乎有望反弹。最近的一系列合同赢得和延期证明了 Palantir 软件解决方案的有效性以及公共部门的持续需求。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir's software solutions remain a critical function to ensuring the seamless integration of data platforms and improving decision-making in the increasingly digital world. And based on recent deals and partnerships announced, the company's fundamentals are expected to come in stronger than expected this earnings season, indicating further rallies in the new year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的软件解决方案仍然是确保数据平台无缝集成和在日益数字化的世界中改善决策的关键功能。根据最近宣布的交易和合作伙伴关系，该公司的基本面预计将在本财报季强于预期，表明新的一年将进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p><b>Rising Opportunities from the Commercial Sector</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业部门的新兴机遇</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir's commercial segment revenues have demonstrated robust strong growth momentum in recent quarters. In the first nine months of the year, the segment has generated sales of $450.6 million, representing growth of close to 30% from the prior year. Much of this accelerated growth were generated in the third quarter, with record-setting year-on-year and sequential advances of close to 38% and 21%, respectively. And similar results are expected for the fourth quarter, based on recent multi-year deals forged with reputable names within the private sector:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 的商业部门收入在最近几个季度表现出强劲的增长势头。今年前九个月，该部门的销售额为 4.506 亿美元，比上年增长近 30%。这种加速增长大部分是在第三季度产生的，创纪录的同比增长和环比增长分别接近 38% 和 21%。根据最近与私营部门知名企业达成的多年期交易，预计第四季度也会出现类似的结果：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><ul><li>Dewpoint Therapeutics: Palantir will be deploying Foundry at Dewpoint Therapeutics to help researchers gain better understanding of biomolecular condensates, a critical element within cells that help them perform vital functions. Foundry will be used to integrate data generated from experimental results and outcomes into a "centralized knowledge repository", enabling researchers with access to a key hub of resources needed to "identify new compounds and therapeutic approaches" for challenging disease.</li><li>Merck: Palantir and Merck(OTCPK:MKGAF)(OTCPK:MKGAY) have introduced the Athinia, a Foundry-powered platform that uses AI to address ongoing supply chain challenges. Athinia will provide a centralized platform where chipmakers and material suppliers can "share, aggregate and analyze data". The joint initiative is expected to foster a higher level of supply chain transparency and drive greater operational efficiencies across the value chain.</li><li>Kinder Morgan: Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMI)will use Foundry combine data across its U.S.-based gas storage operations that are otherwise segregated. This will enable operators with access to a "common operating picture" of the company's consolidated information, ranging from supply to pricing, which will help to better inform their decision-making process.</li><li>MSP Recovery: The leading Medicare, Medicaid, commercial and secondary payer reimbursement recovery firm will use Foundry to "connect data both within and between organizations and help unlock connectivity on an unprecedented scale". The resulting centralized data ecosystem is expected to help break down time and cost inefficiencies within the American healthcare system, and improve the level of care for patients while also ensuring better revenues for both MSP and healthcare providers.</li></ul>The common theme behind Palantir's recent commercial partnerships continues to be Foundry's ability to "break down data silos", contextualize information, and enable improved decision-making. This ability will become increasingly invaluable to companies in coming years with accelerated digital transformation. To date,only 4% of companies claim to have a "highly sophisticated approach to leveraging data". This leaves a sizable addressable market within the private sector in which Palantir could penetrate. And the company has already deployed various strategic offerings to ensure adequate capitalization of said opportunities ahead.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Dewpoint Therapeutics：Palantir 将在 Dewpoint Therapeutics 部署 Foundry，以帮助研究人员更好地了解生物分子缩合物，这是细胞内帮助细胞执行重要功能的关键元素。Foundry 将用于将实验结果和结果生成的数据整合到“集中知识库”中，使研究人员能够访问“识别新化合物和治疗方法”所需的关键资源中心，以应对疾病。</li><li>默克：Palantir 和默克 (OTCPK:MKGAF)(OTCPK:MKGAY) 推出了 Athinia，这是一个由代工厂驱动的平台，使用人工智能来应对持续的供应链挑战。Athinia将提供一个集中式平台，芯片制造商和材料供应商可以在其中“共享、汇总和分析数据”。该联合倡议预计将促进更高水平的供应链透明度，并提高整个价值链的运营效率。</li><li>金德摩根：金德摩根（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KMI）将在其美国天然气储存业务中使用 Foundry combine 数据，否则这些数据是隔离的。这将使运营商能够访问公司综合信息的“通用运营情况”，从供应到定价，这将有助于更好地为其决策过程提供信息。</li><li>MSP恢复：领先的医疗保险、医疗补助、商业和二级付款人报销恢复公司将使用Foundry“连接组织内部和组织之间的数据，并以前所未有的规模帮助解锁连接”。由此产生的集中式数据生态系统预计将有助于打破美国医疗保健系统内的时间和成本效率低下，提高患者的护理水平，同时确保MSP和医疗保健提供商获得更好的收入。</li></ul>Palantir最近的商业合作伙伴关系背后的共同主题仍然是Foundry“打破数据孤岛”、将信息置于上下文中并实现改进决策的能力。随着数字化转型的加速，这种能力对未来几年的公司来说将变得越来越宝贵。迄今为止，只有4%的公司声称拥有“高度复杂的数据利用方法”。这为 Palantir 在私营部门留下了一个可观的潜在市场。该公司已经部署了各种战略产品，以确保充分利用未来的上述机会。</blockquote></p><p>As discussed in our previous coverage, the recent introduction of Foundry for Builders under a subscription-based model is expected to encourage mass market adoption of the software from both multinational corporations with complex data compilations and small Day One start-ups. The recent introduction of modular offerings like "Carbon Emissions Management" and "Anti-Money Laundering / Know Your Client" solutions will also appeal to the emerging crypto sector, exposing Palantir's commercial offerings to a broader market.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在之前的报道中所讨论的，最近在基于订阅的模式下推出的Foundry for Builders预计将鼓励具有复杂数据编译的跨国公司和小型初创企业在大众市场采用该软件。最近推出的“碳排放管理”和“反洗钱/了解您的客户”解决方案等模块化产品也将吸引新兴的加密行业，使Palantir的商业产品面向更广阔的市场。</blockquote></p><p><b>Robust Government Demand Driven by Proven Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经过验证的结果推动的强劲政府需求</b></blockquote></p><p>Signs of deceleration in Palantir's government segment revenues during the third quarter had raised alarms on the durability of its growth outlook. Government segment revenues during the third quarter grew by only 34% from the prior year, down from an average of 74% year-on-year growth observed in the three preceding quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 第三季度政府部门收入放缓的迹象引发了人们对其增长前景可持续性的担忧。第三季度政府部门收入同比仅增长34%，低于前三个季度74%的平均同比增长率。</blockquote></p><p>But Palantir's government contract wins observed so far in the last quarter of the year shows that a rebound may be in order:</p><p><blockquote>但今年最后一个季度迄今为止观察到的 Palantir 政府合同胜利表明，反弹可能即将到来：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><ul><li>Army Vantage Program: The U.S. Army has contracted Palantir in 2019 to power the "Army Vantage" data analytics platform. Palantir's software is used to "break down data silos" and create a centralized operating system where the U.S. Army can mobilize their data to make informed decisions in real-time. The contract was renewed for the second option year in mid-December for $116.3 million.</li><li>Space System Command ("SSC"): The SSC's Cross-Mission Ground & Communications Enterprise ("ECX") has awarded Palantir a $43 million contract extension earlier this month. Under the extended arrangement, Palantir will continue to deploy its software to integrate and process data from various sources, and facilitate "application delivery, in-depth analysis, and data-driven decision-making" across the ECX and its partners.</li><li>Capability Drop 2 ("CD-2") Program: Palantir announced an $823 million contract win with the U.S. Army's Program Manager for Intelligence Systems and Analytics in October. The Army Intelligence will be leveraging Palantir's Gotham platform to consolidate data from disparate databases, and create a "data fabric and analytics foundation" for the CD-2 program, which will be used to enable data modernization and analytic capabilities required for preparing against future threats to national security.</li><li>National Institutes of Health ("NIH"): Palantir has been contracted by the NIH's National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences ("NCATS") to continue the deployment of its solutions for enabling a central operating system used in collaborative clinical research on COVID-19. The two-year contract has an estimated value of $59.9 million, with an initial task order to be completed in five months valued at $7.9 million. The NCATS has also offered Palantir a separate one-year contract extension for the provision of its software to help facilitate cancer research at the National Cancer Institute. The extension has upped the total contract value from $36 million to $60 million.</li></ul>Data remains the strongest link in aligning U.S. foreign policy with the country's national security goals. This underscores why making sense of data, and using it to drive critical decision-making processes continue to be a top priority for the Defense Department, as well as other agencies within the public sector. The increasing urgency to reconnect the fragmented nature of databases set up across the public sector's sub-departments has been a common theme in Palantir's government contract wins in recent years, including the ones obtained during the fourth quarter as mentioned above. The growing number of contract extensions awarded to Palantir is also a testament to the effectiveness of its software in addressing complex challenges resulting from the government's disparate data sources.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>陆军优势计划：美国陆军于 2019 年与 Palantir 签订合同，为“陆军 Vantage”数据分析平台提供动力。Palantir 的软件用于“打破数据孤岛”并创建一个集中式操作系统，其中美国军队可以调动他们的数据来实时做出明智的决策。该合同于 12 月中旬以 1.163 亿美元的价格续签了第二个期权年。</li><li>空间系统司令部（“SSC”）：SSC的跨任务地面和通信企业（“ECX”）本月早些时候授予Palantir一份价值4300万美元的合同延期。根据扩展后的安排，Palantir 将继续部署其软件来集成和处理来自各种来源的数据，并促进整个 ECX 及其合作伙伴的“应用交付、深入分析和数据驱动的决策”。</li><li>能力下降 2（“CD-2”）计划：Palantir 于 10 月份宣布与美国陆军情报系统和分析项目经理赢得价值 8.23 亿美元的合同。陆军情报部门将利用 Palantir 的 Gotham 平台来整合来自不同数据库的数据，并为 CD-2 计划创建一个“数据结构和分析基础”，该基础将用于实现数据现代化和分析能力，以应对未来对国家安全的威胁。</li><li>美国国立卫生研究院（“NIH”）：Palantir 已与美国国立卫生研究院国家转化科学促进中心（“NCATS”）签约，继续部署其解决方案，以实现用于 COVID-19 合作临床研究的中央操作系统。这份为期两年的合同估计价值为5990万美元，五个月内完成的初始任务订单价值790万美元。NCATS还向Palantir提供了一份为期一年的单独合同延期，以提供其软件，以帮助促进国家癌症研究所的癌症研究。此次延期使合同总价值从 3600 万美元增加到 6000 万美元。</li></ul>数据仍然是使美国外交政策与国家安全目标保持一致的最强有力的环节。这凸显了为什么理解数据并利用数据来推动关键决策过程仍然是国防部以及公共部门其他机构的首要任务。近年来，Palantir 赢得政府合同（包括上述第四季度获得的合同）的一个共同主题是重新连接公共部门各子部门建立的数据库的碎片化性质。授予Palantir的越来越多的合同延期也证明了其软件在解决政府不同数据源带来的复杂挑战方面的有效性。</blockquote></p><p>Time and again, Palantir has proven to government agencies that while taking advantage of data is a complex process, it has the technological capacity and resources to link and make sense of the vast troves of information without compromising on time and cost-efficiencies. Palantir's most recent new contract win with the U.S. Army for the CD-2 program as mentioned above also foreshadows greater opportunities ahead with the Defense Department. The agency has pivoted towards increasing collaborations with innovation-driven technology partners in recent years to modernize their current "command and control" architecture. Their goal to invest more heavily into new technologies like AI is also embedded in the proposed military budget for the coming year. This signals that a greater market of opportunities from the U.S. Department of Defense is coming Palantir's way. Paired with Palantir's proven technological competency in addressing said specific needs of the public sector as validated by recent contract renewals, the company's government segment is well-poised for additional growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir一次又一次地向政府机构证明，虽然利用数据是一个复杂的过程，但它拥有技术能力和资源来链接和理解大量信息，而不会影响时间和成本效率。Palantir 最近赢得了美国的新合同。如上所述，陆军 CD-2 计划也预示着国防部将迎来更大的机遇。近年来，该机构转向加强与创新驱动的技术合作伙伴的合作，以实现其当前“指挥和控制”架构的现代化。他们加大对人工智能等新技术投资的目标也包含在明年拟议的军事预算中。这表明来自美国的更大机会市场。国防部正在阻止帕兰蒂尔。再加上 Palantir 在满足公共部门上述特定需求方面经过验证的技术能力（最近的合同续签证明了这一点），该公司的政府部门已做好充分准备，迎接未来的进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p><b>Recap of Financial Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务展望概述</b></blockquote></p><p>Adjusting our previous forecast for actual third quarter results and recent developments to Palantir's growth outlook based on new contract adds observed in the fourth quarter, we are projecting total revenues of $1.5 billion by the end of the year. The top line is expected to further advance at a compounded annual growth rate ("CAGR") of about 16% towards $6.6 billion by 2030. The growth assumptions applied remain consistent with those discussed in our previous analysis, considering Palantir's business model and operating environment has not materially changed. Recent contract wins and renewals also support the viability of management's goal to grow Palantir's revenues by 30% every year for the next five years, indicating that the narrative surrounding its bullish thesis remains intact.</p><p><blockquote>根据第四季度观察到的新合同增加，调整了我们之前对第三季度实际业绩的预测以及 Palantir 增长前景的最新进展，我们预计到今年年底总收入将达到 15 亿美元。预计到2030年，营收将以约16%的复合年增长率（“CAGR”）进一步增长，达到66亿美元。考虑到 Palantir 的业务模式和运营环境并无重大变化，所应用的增长假设与我们先前分析中讨论的假设保持一致。最近的合同赢得和续签也支持了管理层未来五年每年将 Palantir 收入增长 30% 的目标的可行性，这表明围绕其看涨论点的叙述仍然完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3fd776c2128f3c668ca04386d1c782\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Specifically, government segment revenues are forecast at $896.2 million by the end of the year, representing growth of 41.8% from 2020. While deal flows are expected to remain strong within the foreseeable future considering Palantir's proven effectiveness in delivery solutions that can address data challenges within the public sector and increasing defense opportunities allocated towards software and innovative technology, the segment's growth is expected to ultimately normalize towards an average range of 28% to 30% over the next five years. Based on this consideration, our forecast projects government revenues to advance towards $2.5 billion by 2025 and $3.8 billion by 2030, representing growth at a 10-year CAGR of 15.6%.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，到今年年底，政府部门的收入预计将达到 8.962 亿美元，比 2020 年增长 41.8%。虽然考虑到 Palantir 在交付解决方案方面已被证明有效，可以解决公共部门的数据挑战，以及分配给软件和创新技术的越来越多的国防机会，预计在可预见的未来，交易流量将保持强劲，但该部门的增长预计最终将在未来五年内恢复正常，平均范围为 28% 至 30%。基于这一考虑，我们的预测预计政府收入到 2025 年将达到 25 亿美元，到 2030 年将达到 38 亿美元，10 年复合年增长率为 15.6%。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, commercial segment revenue growth is expected to remain robust in coming years. Palantir's continued roll-out of attractive purchase options and modular add-on offerings targeted at specific industry needs are expected to encourage further adoption of Foundry in the long-run. Paired with a growing base of contracted commercial segment revenues, which is currently valued at more than $2 billion with an average duration of four years, our forecast expects Palantir to realize related sales of $630.8 million by the end of the year. And in the coming years, commercial segment revenues are expected to further advance at a 10-year CAGR of 16.1% towards $2.8 billion by 2030, with the bulk of the growth frontloaded in the first half of the decade to reflect accelerating market demand for holistic data compilation and analytical tools like Foundry.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，预计未来几年商业部门收入增长将保持强劲。Palantir 针对特定行业需求不断推出有吸引力的购买选项和模块化附加产品，预计从长远来看将鼓励进一步采用 Foundry。再加上合同商业部门收入基础不断增长（目前价值超过 20 亿美元，平均持续时间为四年），我们的预测预计 Palantir 到今年年底将实现 6.308 亿美元的相关销售额。未来几年，商业部门收入预计将以 16.1% 的 10 年复合年增长率进一步增长，到 2030 年将达到 28 亿美元，其中大部分增长将在本十年前五年进行，以反映市场对整体数据汇编和 Foundry 等分析工具的加速需求。</blockquote></p><p>Combined with Palantir's projected cost structure, which takes into consideration the highly scalable nature of its software offerings as discussed in our previous coverage, the company is expected to generate narrowing losses of $464.0 million to $117.5 million until 2024. Nominal profits of $141.1 million are projected for 2025, with further growth towards $1.5 billion by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>结合 Palantir 的预计成本结构（该结构考虑了我们之前报道中讨论的其软件产品的高度可扩展性），预计到 2024 年，该公司将产生 4.64 亿美元至 1.175 亿美元的亏损。预计 2025 年名义利润为 1.411 亿美元，到 2030 年将进一步增长至 15 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0009de543c4769c88acd7b95c7f66b76\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><i>i. Base Case Financial Forecast:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本案例财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8105718a0b2b6f07a7a835692c269950\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"176\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57b753657e20113e178a798bb6ce7e5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Drawing on the above analysis on Palantir's financial prospects, our 12-month price target is set at $25.45. This represents upside potential of close to 37% based on the last traded share price of $18.58 on December 28th.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述对 Palantir 财务前景的分析，我们的 12 个月目标价定为 25.45 美元。根据 12 月 28 日最后交易股价 18.58 美元计算，这意味着接近 37% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p>Our valuation analysis is derived from a discounted cash flow ("DCF") analysis over a five-year discrete period in conjunction with the base case financial projections for Palantir as discussed in earlier sections. A WACC of 9.3% is applied to discount Palantir's projected free cash flows over the forecasted period. The valuation assumption applied is consistent with the company's risk profile and capital structure, which is currently debt-free with an ability to generate robust cash flows into the long-run. The analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 110.8x, which is derived based on Palantir's size of operations, current growth initiatives and business outlook relative to its industry peers. This compares to an EV/ETBIDA range of 43.66x to 198.65x observed across guideline public companies within the same industry.</p><p><blockquote>我们的估值分析来自五年离散期间的贴现现金流量（“贴现现金流量”）分析，并结合前面章节讨论的 Palantir 基本案例财务预测。9.3% 的 WACC 用于贴现 Palantir 在预测期内的预计自由现金流。所应用的估值假设与公司的风险状况和资本结构一致，该公司目前没有债务，有能力在长期内产生强劲的现金流。该分析还假设退出倍数为 110.8 倍，这是根据 Palantir 的业务规模、当前增长计划以及相对于行业同行的业务前景得出的。相比之下，在同一行业的指导性上市公司中观察到的EV/ETBIDA范围为43.66倍至198.65倍。</blockquote></p><p><i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b9fe2dec0f0a082751b96ebe37932b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We have also used a multiple-based valuation approach to validate our 12-month price target derived using the DCF approach. By applying a forward-looking price-to-sales multiple of 27.7x to projected revenues per share for the next 12 months, the Palantir stock is expected to trade at approximately $25.93, which is in line with our DCF analysis. The multiple is consistent with those observed across Palantir's industry peers, as well as market expectations on the company's near-term valuation based on its current operating environment, business developments and growth trajectory.</p><p><blockquote>我们还使用了基于多重估值的方法来验证我们使用 DCF 方法得出的 12 个月目标价格。通过对未来 12 个月的每股预计收入应用 27.7 倍的前瞻性市销率，Palantir 股票预计交易价格约为 25.93 美元，这与我们的 DCF 分析一致。该倍数与 Palantir 行业同行观察到的倍数一致，也与市场基于其当前运营环境、业务发展和增长轨迹对该公司近期估值的预期一致。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><i>ii. Price-to-Sales Multiple-Based Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、基于市销率的倍数估值：</i></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a406a349f657b028d7ee7375ac941129\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"205\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Accelerated digitization across enterprises of all sizes and industries, and an increasing urgency to mend the fragmented nature of databases across the public sector will continue to drive tremendous demand for holistic data compilation and analytics solutions like Foundry and Gotham in coming years. The technological effectiveness and scalability of Palantir's products also make them attractive solutions for handling increasingly complex data challenges. Looking ahead, Palantir remains well-poised to capitalize on significant growth opportunities presented by both the public and private sectors, which is expected to soon materialize into promising upsides for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>各种规模和行业的企业加速数字化，以及修补公共部门数据库碎片化性质的日益迫切，将在未来几年继续推动对Foundry和Gotham等整体数据汇编和分析解决方案的巨大需求。Palantir产品的技术有效性和可扩展性也使其成为处理日益复杂的数据挑战的有吸引力的解决方案。展望未来，Palantir 仍然做好充分准备，利用公共和私营部门提供的重大增长机会，预计这些机会将很快转化为该股充满希望的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: A Rebound May Be In Order With Potentially Stronger-Than-Expected Earnings Ahead<blockquote>Palantir：未来盈利可能强于预期，反弹可能是有序的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: A Rebound May Be In Order With Potentially Stronger-Than-Expected Earnings Ahead<blockquote>Palantir：未来盈利可能强于预期，反弹可能是有序的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 20:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir has underperformed the broader market this year with declines of more than 20% while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have both rallied close to 30%.</li><li>The stock's latest plummet was triggered by signs of deceleration in the company's government segment, a core driver of the consolidated business growth.</li><li>However, new contract wins and renewals from both the public and private sectors observed over the last three months indicate Palantir is readying to end the year with strong fundamentals.</li><li>The narrative surrounding the stock's bullish thesis also remains intact, with continued demand for holistic data compilation and analytics solutions like Foundry and Gotham to support improved decision-making in the increasingly digital landscape.</li><li>This points to a potential rally in the new year, making the stock's current price levels an attractive entry point.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7c2e5739d48a7457788f40f66148c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 今年的表现逊于大盘，跌幅超过 20%，而纳斯达克 100 指数和标普500指数均上涨近 30%。</li><li>该股最近的暴跌是由该公司政府部门放缓的迹象引发的，而政府部门是综合业务增长的核心驱动力。</li><li>然而，过去三个月观察到的公共和私营部门的新合同赢得和续签表明，Palantir 已准备好以强劲的基本面结束这一年。</li><li>围绕该股看涨论点的叙述也保持不变，对 Foundry 和 Gotham 等整体数据汇编和分析解决方案的持续需求，以支持在日益数字化的环境中改进决策。</li><li>这表明新的一年可能会出现反弹，使该股当前的价格水平成为有吸引力的切入点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>While the broader market has outperformed in the past year with both the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 up almost 30% in the first nine months of 2021, the Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)stock has posted declines of more than 20% in the same period. In the first few months that followed its debut on the NYSE last September, the stock had more than tripled in value before the February tech stock selloff wiped out more than one-third of said gains. The stock has largely remained in the sub-$30 level since until Palantir released weaker than expected third quarter results. Signs of slowing revenue growth from the government segment had sent the stock towards the low-$20s, while recent macro headwinds ranging from rising inflation to the resurgence of the Omicron coronavirus variant have led further declines to the sub-$20 level.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大盘在过去一年中表现优异，标普500和以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数在 2021 年前 9 个月均上涨了近 30%，但 Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) 股票同期下跌超过 20%。去年 9 月在纽约证券交易所首次亮相后的头几个月，该股价值上涨了两倍多，但 2 月份科技股抛售抹去了超过三分之一的涨幅。自 Palantir 发布弱于预期的第三季度业绩以来，该股基本保持在 30 美元以下的水平。政府部门收入增长放缓的迹象导致该股跌至 20 美元左右的低点，而最近从通胀上升到奥密克戎冠状病毒变种死灰复燃等宏观阻力导致该股进一步跌至 20 美元以下的水平。</blockquote></p><p>However, revenue growth from Palantir's commercial segment remains robust and should not be overlooked. Businesses are becoming increasingly digital, generating vast troves of data that will need to be integrated, processed and analyzed to drive key decision-making processes. And this trend will continue to propel commercial demand for Palantir's enterprise software solutions. New strategies and modular offerings like the "Foundry for Builders" subscription and "Carbon Emissions Management" tool will also encourage further mass market adoption in the long-run and underpin the segment's continued growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Palantir 商业部门的收入增长仍然强劲，不容忽视。企业正变得越来越数字化，产生了大量需要集成、处理和分析的数据，以推动关键的决策过程。这一趋势将继续推动 Palantir 企业软件解决方案的商业需求。从长远来看，“Foundry for Builders”订阅和“碳排放管理”工具等新战略和模块化产品也将鼓励进一步的大众市场采用，并支撑该细分市场的持续增长。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, a rebound in government segment revenues appears to be in order this quarter. The recent slew of contract wins and extensions is a testament to the effectiveness of Palantir's software solutions and continued demand from the public sector.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，本季度政府部门收入似乎有望反弹。最近的一系列合同赢得和延期证明了 Palantir 软件解决方案的有效性以及公共部门的持续需求。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir's software solutions remain a critical function to ensuring the seamless integration of data platforms and improving decision-making in the increasingly digital world. And based on recent deals and partnerships announced, the company's fundamentals are expected to come in stronger than expected this earnings season, indicating further rallies in the new year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的软件解决方案仍然是确保数据平台无缝集成和在日益数字化的世界中改善决策的关键功能。根据最近宣布的交易和合作伙伴关系，该公司的基本面预计将在本财报季强于预期，表明新的一年将进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p><b>Rising Opportunities from the Commercial Sector</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业部门的新兴机遇</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir's commercial segment revenues have demonstrated robust strong growth momentum in recent quarters. In the first nine months of the year, the segment has generated sales of $450.6 million, representing growth of close to 30% from the prior year. Much of this accelerated growth were generated in the third quarter, with record-setting year-on-year and sequential advances of close to 38% and 21%, respectively. And similar results are expected for the fourth quarter, based on recent multi-year deals forged with reputable names within the private sector:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 的商业部门收入在最近几个季度表现出强劲的增长势头。今年前九个月，该部门的销售额为 4.506 亿美元，比上年增长近 30%。这种加速增长大部分是在第三季度产生的，创纪录的同比增长和环比增长分别接近 38% 和 21%。根据最近与私营部门知名企业达成的多年期交易，预计第四季度也会出现类似的结果：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><ul><li>Dewpoint Therapeutics: Palantir will be deploying Foundry at Dewpoint Therapeutics to help researchers gain better understanding of biomolecular condensates, a critical element within cells that help them perform vital functions. Foundry will be used to integrate data generated from experimental results and outcomes into a "centralized knowledge repository", enabling researchers with access to a key hub of resources needed to "identify new compounds and therapeutic approaches" for challenging disease.</li><li>Merck: Palantir and Merck(OTCPK:MKGAF)(OTCPK:MKGAY) have introduced the Athinia, a Foundry-powered platform that uses AI to address ongoing supply chain challenges. Athinia will provide a centralized platform where chipmakers and material suppliers can "share, aggregate and analyze data". The joint initiative is expected to foster a higher level of supply chain transparency and drive greater operational efficiencies across the value chain.</li><li>Kinder Morgan: Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMI)will use Foundry combine data across its U.S.-based gas storage operations that are otherwise segregated. This will enable operators with access to a "common operating picture" of the company's consolidated information, ranging from supply to pricing, which will help to better inform their decision-making process.</li><li>MSP Recovery: The leading Medicare, Medicaid, commercial and secondary payer reimbursement recovery firm will use Foundry to "connect data both within and between organizations and help unlock connectivity on an unprecedented scale". The resulting centralized data ecosystem is expected to help break down time and cost inefficiencies within the American healthcare system, and improve the level of care for patients while also ensuring better revenues for both MSP and healthcare providers.</li></ul>The common theme behind Palantir's recent commercial partnerships continues to be Foundry's ability to "break down data silos", contextualize information, and enable improved decision-making. This ability will become increasingly invaluable to companies in coming years with accelerated digital transformation. To date,only 4% of companies claim to have a "highly sophisticated approach to leveraging data". This leaves a sizable addressable market within the private sector in which Palantir could penetrate. And the company has already deployed various strategic offerings to ensure adequate capitalization of said opportunities ahead.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Dewpoint Therapeutics：Palantir 将在 Dewpoint Therapeutics 部署 Foundry，以帮助研究人员更好地了解生物分子缩合物，这是细胞内帮助细胞执行重要功能的关键元素。Foundry 将用于将实验结果和结果生成的数据整合到“集中知识库”中，使研究人员能够访问“识别新化合物和治疗方法”所需的关键资源中心，以应对疾病。</li><li>默克：Palantir 和默克 (OTCPK:MKGAF)(OTCPK:MKGAY) 推出了 Athinia，这是一个由代工厂驱动的平台，使用人工智能来应对持续的供应链挑战。Athinia将提供一个集中式平台，芯片制造商和材料供应商可以在其中“共享、汇总和分析数据”。该联合倡议预计将促进更高水平的供应链透明度，并提高整个价值链的运营效率。</li><li>金德摩根：金德摩根（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KMI）将在其美国天然气储存业务中使用 Foundry combine 数据，否则这些数据是隔离的。这将使运营商能够访问公司综合信息的“通用运营情况”，从供应到定价，这将有助于更好地为其决策过程提供信息。</li><li>MSP恢复：领先的医疗保险、医疗补助、商业和二级付款人报销恢复公司将使用Foundry“连接组织内部和组织之间的数据，并以前所未有的规模帮助解锁连接”。由此产生的集中式数据生态系统预计将有助于打破美国医疗保健系统内的时间和成本效率低下，提高患者的护理水平，同时确保MSP和医疗保健提供商获得更好的收入。</li></ul>Palantir最近的商业合作伙伴关系背后的共同主题仍然是Foundry“打破数据孤岛”、将信息置于上下文中并实现改进决策的能力。随着数字化转型的加速，这种能力对未来几年的公司来说将变得越来越宝贵。迄今为止，只有4%的公司声称拥有“高度复杂的数据利用方法”。这为 Palantir 在私营部门留下了一个可观的潜在市场。该公司已经部署了各种战略产品，以确保充分利用未来的上述机会。</blockquote></p><p>As discussed in our previous coverage, the recent introduction of Foundry for Builders under a subscription-based model is expected to encourage mass market adoption of the software from both multinational corporations with complex data compilations and small Day One start-ups. The recent introduction of modular offerings like "Carbon Emissions Management" and "Anti-Money Laundering / Know Your Client" solutions will also appeal to the emerging crypto sector, exposing Palantir's commercial offerings to a broader market.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在之前的报道中所讨论的，最近在基于订阅的模式下推出的Foundry for Builders预计将鼓励具有复杂数据编译的跨国公司和小型初创企业在大众市场采用该软件。最近推出的“碳排放管理”和“反洗钱/了解您的客户”解决方案等模块化产品也将吸引新兴的加密行业，使Palantir的商业产品面向更广阔的市场。</blockquote></p><p><b>Robust Government Demand Driven by Proven Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经过验证的结果推动的强劲政府需求</b></blockquote></p><p>Signs of deceleration in Palantir's government segment revenues during the third quarter had raised alarms on the durability of its growth outlook. Government segment revenues during the third quarter grew by only 34% from the prior year, down from an average of 74% year-on-year growth observed in the three preceding quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 第三季度政府部门收入放缓的迹象引发了人们对其增长前景可持续性的担忧。第三季度政府部门收入同比仅增长34%，低于前三个季度74%的平均同比增长率。</blockquote></p><p>But Palantir's government contract wins observed so far in the last quarter of the year shows that a rebound may be in order:</p><p><blockquote>但今年最后一个季度迄今为止观察到的 Palantir 政府合同胜利表明，反弹可能即将到来：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><ul><li>Army Vantage Program: The U.S. Army has contracted Palantir in 2019 to power the "Army Vantage" data analytics platform. Palantir's software is used to "break down data silos" and create a centralized operating system where the U.S. Army can mobilize their data to make informed decisions in real-time. The contract was renewed for the second option year in mid-December for $116.3 million.</li><li>Space System Command ("SSC"): The SSC's Cross-Mission Ground & Communications Enterprise ("ECX") has awarded Palantir a $43 million contract extension earlier this month. Under the extended arrangement, Palantir will continue to deploy its software to integrate and process data from various sources, and facilitate "application delivery, in-depth analysis, and data-driven decision-making" across the ECX and its partners.</li><li>Capability Drop 2 ("CD-2") Program: Palantir announced an $823 million contract win with the U.S. Army's Program Manager for Intelligence Systems and Analytics in October. The Army Intelligence will be leveraging Palantir's Gotham platform to consolidate data from disparate databases, and create a "data fabric and analytics foundation" for the CD-2 program, which will be used to enable data modernization and analytic capabilities required for preparing against future threats to national security.</li><li>National Institutes of Health ("NIH"): Palantir has been contracted by the NIH's National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences ("NCATS") to continue the deployment of its solutions for enabling a central operating system used in collaborative clinical research on COVID-19. The two-year contract has an estimated value of $59.9 million, with an initial task order to be completed in five months valued at $7.9 million. The NCATS has also offered Palantir a separate one-year contract extension for the provision of its software to help facilitate cancer research at the National Cancer Institute. The extension has upped the total contract value from $36 million to $60 million.</li></ul>Data remains the strongest link in aligning U.S. foreign policy with the country's national security goals. This underscores why making sense of data, and using it to drive critical decision-making processes continue to be a top priority for the Defense Department, as well as other agencies within the public sector. The increasing urgency to reconnect the fragmented nature of databases set up across the public sector's sub-departments has been a common theme in Palantir's government contract wins in recent years, including the ones obtained during the fourth quarter as mentioned above. The growing number of contract extensions awarded to Palantir is also a testament to the effectiveness of its software in addressing complex challenges resulting from the government's disparate data sources.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>陆军优势计划：美国陆军于 2019 年与 Palantir 签订合同，为“陆军 Vantage”数据分析平台提供动力。Palantir 的软件用于“打破数据孤岛”并创建一个集中式操作系统，其中美国军队可以调动他们的数据来实时做出明智的决策。该合同于 12 月中旬以 1.163 亿美元的价格续签了第二个期权年。</li><li>空间系统司令部（“SSC”）：SSC的跨任务地面和通信企业（“ECX”）本月早些时候授予Palantir一份价值4300万美元的合同延期。根据扩展后的安排，Palantir 将继续部署其软件来集成和处理来自各种来源的数据，并促进整个 ECX 及其合作伙伴的“应用交付、深入分析和数据驱动的决策”。</li><li>能力下降 2（“CD-2”）计划：Palantir 于 10 月份宣布与美国陆军情报系统和分析项目经理赢得价值 8.23 亿美元的合同。陆军情报部门将利用 Palantir 的 Gotham 平台来整合来自不同数据库的数据，并为 CD-2 计划创建一个“数据结构和分析基础”，该基础将用于实现数据现代化和分析能力，以应对未来对国家安全的威胁。</li><li>美国国立卫生研究院（“NIH”）：Palantir 已与美国国立卫生研究院国家转化科学促进中心（“NCATS”）签约，继续部署其解决方案，以实现用于 COVID-19 合作临床研究的中央操作系统。这份为期两年的合同估计价值为5990万美元，五个月内完成的初始任务订单价值790万美元。NCATS还向Palantir提供了一份为期一年的单独合同延期，以提供其软件，以帮助促进国家癌症研究所的癌症研究。此次延期使合同总价值从 3600 万美元增加到 6000 万美元。</li></ul>数据仍然是使美国外交政策与国家安全目标保持一致的最强有力的环节。这凸显了为什么理解数据并利用数据来推动关键决策过程仍然是国防部以及公共部门其他机构的首要任务。近年来，Palantir 赢得政府合同（包括上述第四季度获得的合同）的一个共同主题是重新连接公共部门各子部门建立的数据库的碎片化性质。授予Palantir的越来越多的合同延期也证明了其软件在解决政府不同数据源带来的复杂挑战方面的有效性。</blockquote></p><p>Time and again, Palantir has proven to government agencies that while taking advantage of data is a complex process, it has the technological capacity and resources to link and make sense of the vast troves of information without compromising on time and cost-efficiencies. Palantir's most recent new contract win with the U.S. Army for the CD-2 program as mentioned above also foreshadows greater opportunities ahead with the Defense Department. The agency has pivoted towards increasing collaborations with innovation-driven technology partners in recent years to modernize their current "command and control" architecture. Their goal to invest more heavily into new technologies like AI is also embedded in the proposed military budget for the coming year. This signals that a greater market of opportunities from the U.S. Department of Defense is coming Palantir's way. Paired with Palantir's proven technological competency in addressing said specific needs of the public sector as validated by recent contract renewals, the company's government segment is well-poised for additional growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir一次又一次地向政府机构证明，虽然利用数据是一个复杂的过程，但它拥有技术能力和资源来链接和理解大量信息，而不会影响时间和成本效率。Palantir 最近赢得了美国的新合同。如上所述，陆军 CD-2 计划也预示着国防部将迎来更大的机遇。近年来，该机构转向加强与创新驱动的技术合作伙伴的合作，以实现其当前“指挥和控制”架构的现代化。他们加大对人工智能等新技术投资的目标也包含在明年拟议的军事预算中。这表明来自美国的更大机会市场。国防部正在阻止帕兰蒂尔。再加上 Palantir 在满足公共部门上述特定需求方面经过验证的技术能力（最近的合同续签证明了这一点），该公司的政府部门已做好充分准备，迎接未来的进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p><b>Recap of Financial Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务展望概述</b></blockquote></p><p>Adjusting our previous forecast for actual third quarter results and recent developments to Palantir's growth outlook based on new contract adds observed in the fourth quarter, we are projecting total revenues of $1.5 billion by the end of the year. The top line is expected to further advance at a compounded annual growth rate ("CAGR") of about 16% towards $6.6 billion by 2030. The growth assumptions applied remain consistent with those discussed in our previous analysis, considering Palantir's business model and operating environment has not materially changed. Recent contract wins and renewals also support the viability of management's goal to grow Palantir's revenues by 30% every year for the next five years, indicating that the narrative surrounding its bullish thesis remains intact.</p><p><blockquote>根据第四季度观察到的新合同增加，调整了我们之前对第三季度实际业绩的预测以及 Palantir 增长前景的最新进展，我们预计到今年年底总收入将达到 15 亿美元。预计到2030年，营收将以约16%的复合年增长率（“CAGR”）进一步增长，达到66亿美元。考虑到 Palantir 的业务模式和运营环境并无重大变化，所应用的增长假设与我们先前分析中讨论的假设保持一致。最近的合同赢得和续签也支持了管理层未来五年每年将 Palantir 收入增长 30% 的目标的可行性，这表明围绕其看涨论点的叙述仍然完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3fd776c2128f3c668ca04386d1c782\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Specifically, government segment revenues are forecast at $896.2 million by the end of the year, representing growth of 41.8% from 2020. While deal flows are expected to remain strong within the foreseeable future considering Palantir's proven effectiveness in delivery solutions that can address data challenges within the public sector and increasing defense opportunities allocated towards software and innovative technology, the segment's growth is expected to ultimately normalize towards an average range of 28% to 30% over the next five years. Based on this consideration, our forecast projects government revenues to advance towards $2.5 billion by 2025 and $3.8 billion by 2030, representing growth at a 10-year CAGR of 15.6%.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，到今年年底，政府部门的收入预计将达到 8.962 亿美元，比 2020 年增长 41.8%。虽然考虑到 Palantir 在交付解决方案方面已被证明有效，可以解决公共部门的数据挑战，以及分配给软件和创新技术的越来越多的国防机会，预计在可预见的未来，交易流量将保持强劲，但该部门的增长预计最终将在未来五年内恢复正常，平均范围为 28% 至 30%。基于这一考虑，我们的预测预计政府收入到 2025 年将达到 25 亿美元，到 2030 年将达到 38 亿美元，10 年复合年增长率为 15.6%。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, commercial segment revenue growth is expected to remain robust in coming years. Palantir's continued roll-out of attractive purchase options and modular add-on offerings targeted at specific industry needs are expected to encourage further adoption of Foundry in the long-run. Paired with a growing base of contracted commercial segment revenues, which is currently valued at more than $2 billion with an average duration of four years, our forecast expects Palantir to realize related sales of $630.8 million by the end of the year. And in the coming years, commercial segment revenues are expected to further advance at a 10-year CAGR of 16.1% towards $2.8 billion by 2030, with the bulk of the growth frontloaded in the first half of the decade to reflect accelerating market demand for holistic data compilation and analytical tools like Foundry.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，预计未来几年商业部门收入增长将保持强劲。Palantir 针对特定行业需求不断推出有吸引力的购买选项和模块化附加产品，预计从长远来看将鼓励进一步采用 Foundry。再加上合同商业部门收入基础不断增长（目前价值超过 20 亿美元，平均持续时间为四年），我们的预测预计 Palantir 到今年年底将实现 6.308 亿美元的相关销售额。未来几年，商业部门收入预计将以 16.1% 的 10 年复合年增长率进一步增长，到 2030 年将达到 28 亿美元，其中大部分增长将在本十年前五年进行，以反映市场对整体数据汇编和 Foundry 等分析工具的加速需求。</blockquote></p><p>Combined with Palantir's projected cost structure, which takes into consideration the highly scalable nature of its software offerings as discussed in our previous coverage, the company is expected to generate narrowing losses of $464.0 million to $117.5 million until 2024. Nominal profits of $141.1 million are projected for 2025, with further growth towards $1.5 billion by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>结合 Palantir 的预计成本结构（该结构考虑了我们之前报道中讨论的其软件产品的高度可扩展性），预计到 2024 年，该公司将产生 4.64 亿美元至 1.175 亿美元的亏损。预计 2025 年名义利润为 1.411 亿美元，到 2030 年将进一步增长至 15 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0009de543c4769c88acd7b95c7f66b76\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><i>i. Base Case Financial Forecast:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本案例财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8105718a0b2b6f07a7a835692c269950\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"176\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57b753657e20113e178a798bb6ce7e5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Drawing on the above analysis on Palantir's financial prospects, our 12-month price target is set at $25.45. This represents upside potential of close to 37% based on the last traded share price of $18.58 on December 28th.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述对 Palantir 财务前景的分析，我们的 12 个月目标价定为 25.45 美元。根据 12 月 28 日最后交易股价 18.58 美元计算，这意味着接近 37% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p>Our valuation analysis is derived from a discounted cash flow ("DCF") analysis over a five-year discrete period in conjunction with the base case financial projections for Palantir as discussed in earlier sections. A WACC of 9.3% is applied to discount Palantir's projected free cash flows over the forecasted period. The valuation assumption applied is consistent with the company's risk profile and capital structure, which is currently debt-free with an ability to generate robust cash flows into the long-run. The analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 110.8x, which is derived based on Palantir's size of operations, current growth initiatives and business outlook relative to its industry peers. This compares to an EV/ETBIDA range of 43.66x to 198.65x observed across guideline public companies within the same industry.</p><p><blockquote>我们的估值分析来自五年离散期间的贴现现金流量（“贴现现金流量”）分析，并结合前面章节讨论的 Palantir 基本案例财务预测。9.3% 的 WACC 用于贴现 Palantir 在预测期内的预计自由现金流。所应用的估值假设与公司的风险状况和资本结构一致，该公司目前没有债务，有能力在长期内产生强劲的现金流。该分析还假设退出倍数为 110.8 倍，这是根据 Palantir 的业务规模、当前增长计划以及相对于行业同行的业务前景得出的。相比之下，在同一行业的指导性上市公司中观察到的EV/ETBIDA范围为43.66倍至198.65倍。</blockquote></p><p><i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b9fe2dec0f0a082751b96ebe37932b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We have also used a multiple-based valuation approach to validate our 12-month price target derived using the DCF approach. By applying a forward-looking price-to-sales multiple of 27.7x to projected revenues per share for the next 12 months, the Palantir stock is expected to trade at approximately $25.93, which is in line with our DCF analysis. The multiple is consistent with those observed across Palantir's industry peers, as well as market expectations on the company's near-term valuation based on its current operating environment, business developments and growth trajectory.</p><p><blockquote>我们还使用了基于多重估值的方法来验证我们使用 DCF 方法得出的 12 个月目标价格。通过对未来 12 个月的每股预计收入应用 27.7 倍的前瞻性市销率，Palantir 股票预计交易价格约为 25.93 美元，这与我们的 DCF 分析一致。该倍数与 Palantir 行业同行观察到的倍数一致，也与市场基于其当前运营环境、业务发展和增长轨迹对该公司近期估值的预期一致。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><i>ii. Price-to-Sales Multiple-Based Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、基于市销率的倍数估值：</i></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a406a349f657b028d7ee7375ac941129\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"205\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Accelerated digitization across enterprises of all sizes and industries, and an increasing urgency to mend the fragmented nature of databases across the public sector will continue to drive tremendous demand for holistic data compilation and analytics solutions like Foundry and Gotham in coming years. The technological effectiveness and scalability of Palantir's products also make them attractive solutions for handling increasingly complex data challenges. Looking ahead, Palantir remains well-poised to capitalize on significant growth opportunities presented by both the public and private sectors, which is expected to soon materialize into promising upsides for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>各种规模和行业的企业加速数字化，以及修补公共部门数据库碎片化性质的日益迫切，将在未来几年继续推动对Foundry和Gotham等整体数据汇编和分析解决方案的巨大需求。Palantir产品的技术有效性和可扩展性也使其成为处理日益复杂的数据挑战的有吸引力的解决方案。展望未来，Palantir 仍然做好充分准备，利用公共和私营部门提供的重大增长机会，预计这些机会将很快转化为该股充满希望的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477257-palantir-pltr-rebound-in-order-stronger-than-expected-earnings-ahead\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477257-palantir-pltr-rebound-in-order-stronger-than-expected-earnings-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183408599","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has underperformed the broader market this year with declines of more than 20% while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have both rallied close to 30%.The stock's latest plummet was triggered by signs of deceleration in the company's government segment, a core driver of the consolidated business growth.However, new contract wins and renewals from both the public and private sectors observed over the last three months indicate Palantir is readying to end the year with strong fundamentals.The narrative surrounding the stock's bullish thesis also remains intact, with continued demand for holistic data compilation and analytics solutions like Foundry and Gotham to support improved decision-making in the increasingly digital landscape.This points to a potential rally in the new year, making the stock's current price levels an attractive entry point.Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWhile the broader market has outperformed in the past year with both the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 up almost 30% in the first nine months of 2021, the Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)stock has posted declines of more than 20% in the same period. In the first few months that followed its debut on the NYSE last September, the stock had more than tripled in value before the February tech stock selloff wiped out more than one-third of said gains. The stock has largely remained in the sub-$30 level since until Palantir released weaker than expected third quarter results. Signs of slowing revenue growth from the government segment had sent the stock towards the low-$20s, while recent macro headwinds ranging from rising inflation to the resurgence of the Omicron coronavirus variant have led further declines to the sub-$20 level.However, revenue growth from Palantir's commercial segment remains robust and should not be overlooked. Businesses are becoming increasingly digital, generating vast troves of data that will need to be integrated, processed and analyzed to drive key decision-making processes. And this trend will continue to propel commercial demand for Palantir's enterprise software solutions. New strategies and modular offerings like the \"Foundry for Builders\" subscription and \"Carbon Emissions Management\" tool will also encourage further mass market adoption in the long-run and underpin the segment's continued growth.Meanwhile, a rebound in government segment revenues appears to be in order this quarter. The recent slew of contract wins and extensions is a testament to the effectiveness of Palantir's software solutions and continued demand from the public sector.Palantir's software solutions remain a critical function to ensuring the seamless integration of data platforms and improving decision-making in the increasingly digital world. And based on recent deals and partnerships announced, the company's fundamentals are expected to come in stronger than expected this earnings season, indicating further rallies in the new year.Rising Opportunities from the Commercial SectorPalantir's commercial segment revenues have demonstrated robust strong growth momentum in recent quarters. In the first nine months of the year, the segment has generated sales of $450.6 million, representing growth of close to 30% from the prior year. Much of this accelerated growth were generated in the third quarter, with record-setting year-on-year and sequential advances of close to 38% and 21%, respectively. And similar results are expected for the fourth quarter, based on recent multi-year deals forged with reputable names within the private sector:Dewpoint Therapeutics: Palantir will be deploying Foundry at Dewpoint Therapeutics to help researchers gain better understanding of biomolecular condensates, a critical element within cells that help them perform vital functions. Foundry will be used to integrate data generated from experimental results and outcomes into a \"centralized knowledge repository\", enabling researchers with access to a key hub of resources needed to \"identify new compounds and therapeutic approaches\" for challenging disease.Merck: Palantir and Merck(OTCPK:MKGAF)(OTCPK:MKGAY) have introduced the Athinia, a Foundry-powered platform that uses AI to address ongoing supply chain challenges. Athinia will provide a centralized platform where chipmakers and material suppliers can \"share, aggregate and analyze data\". The joint initiative is expected to foster a higher level of supply chain transparency and drive greater operational efficiencies across the value chain.Kinder Morgan: Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMI)will use Foundry combine data across its U.S.-based gas storage operations that are otherwise segregated. This will enable operators with access to a \"common operating picture\" of the company's consolidated information, ranging from supply to pricing, which will help to better inform their decision-making process.MSP Recovery: The leading Medicare, Medicaid, commercial and secondary payer reimbursement recovery firm will use Foundry to \"connect data both within and between organizations and help unlock connectivity on an unprecedented scale\". The resulting centralized data ecosystem is expected to help break down time and cost inefficiencies within the American healthcare system, and improve the level of care for patients while also ensuring better revenues for both MSP and healthcare providers.The common theme behind Palantir's recent commercial partnerships continues to be Foundry's ability to \"break down data silos\", contextualize information, and enable improved decision-making. This ability will become increasingly invaluable to companies in coming years with accelerated digital transformation. To date,only 4% of companies claim to have a \"highly sophisticated approach to leveraging data\". This leaves a sizable addressable market within the private sector in which Palantir could penetrate. And the company has already deployed various strategic offerings to ensure adequate capitalization of said opportunities ahead.As discussed in our previous coverage, the recent introduction of Foundry for Builders under a subscription-based model is expected to encourage mass market adoption of the software from both multinational corporations with complex data compilations and small Day One start-ups. The recent introduction of modular offerings like \"Carbon Emissions Management\" and \"Anti-Money Laundering / Know Your Client\" solutions will also appeal to the emerging crypto sector, exposing Palantir's commercial offerings to a broader market.Robust Government Demand Driven by Proven ResultsSigns of deceleration in Palantir's government segment revenues during the third quarter had raised alarms on the durability of its growth outlook. Government segment revenues during the third quarter grew by only 34% from the prior year, down from an average of 74% year-on-year growth observed in the three preceding quarters.But Palantir's government contract wins observed so far in the last quarter of the year shows that a rebound may be in order:Army Vantage Program: The U.S. Army has contracted Palantir in 2019 to power the \"Army Vantage\" data analytics platform. Palantir's software is used to \"break down data silos\" and create a centralized operating system where the U.S. Army can mobilize their data to make informed decisions in real-time. The contract was renewed for the second option year in mid-December for $116.3 million.Space System Command (\"SSC\"): The SSC's Cross-Mission Ground & Communications Enterprise (\"ECX\") has awarded Palantir a $43 million contract extension earlier this month. Under the extended arrangement, Palantir will continue to deploy its software to integrate and process data from various sources, and facilitate \"application delivery, in-depth analysis, and data-driven decision-making\" across the ECX and its partners.Capability Drop 2 (\"CD-2\") Program: Palantir announced an $823 million contract win with the U.S. Army's Program Manager for Intelligence Systems and Analytics in October. The Army Intelligence will be leveraging Palantir's Gotham platform to consolidate data from disparate databases, and create a \"data fabric and analytics foundation\" for the CD-2 program, which will be used to enable data modernization and analytic capabilities required for preparing against future threats to national security.National Institutes of Health (\"NIH\"): Palantir has been contracted by the NIH's National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (\"NCATS\") to continue the deployment of its solutions for enabling a central operating system used in collaborative clinical research on COVID-19. The two-year contract has an estimated value of $59.9 million, with an initial task order to be completed in five months valued at $7.9 million. The NCATS has also offered Palantir a separate one-year contract extension for the provision of its software to help facilitate cancer research at the National Cancer Institute. The extension has upped the total contract value from $36 million to $60 million.Data remains the strongest link in aligning U.S. foreign policy with the country's national security goals. This underscores why making sense of data, and using it to drive critical decision-making processes continue to be a top priority for the Defense Department, as well as other agencies within the public sector. The increasing urgency to reconnect the fragmented nature of databases set up across the public sector's sub-departments has been a common theme in Palantir's government contract wins in recent years, including the ones obtained during the fourth quarter as mentioned above. The growing number of contract extensions awarded to Palantir is also a testament to the effectiveness of its software in addressing complex challenges resulting from the government's disparate data sources.Time and again, Palantir has proven to government agencies that while taking advantage of data is a complex process, it has the technological capacity and resources to link and make sense of the vast troves of information without compromising on time and cost-efficiencies. Palantir's most recent new contract win with the U.S. Army for the CD-2 program as mentioned above also foreshadows greater opportunities ahead with the Defense Department. The agency has pivoted towards increasing collaborations with innovation-driven technology partners in recent years to modernize their current \"command and control\" architecture. Their goal to invest more heavily into new technologies like AI is also embedded in the proposed military budget for the coming year. This signals that a greater market of opportunities from the U.S. Department of Defense is coming Palantir's way. Paired with Palantir's proven technological competency in addressing said specific needs of the public sector as validated by recent contract renewals, the company's government segment is well-poised for additional growth ahead.Recap of Financial ProspectsAdjusting our previous forecast for actual third quarter results and recent developments to Palantir's growth outlook based on new contract adds observed in the fourth quarter, we are projecting total revenues of $1.5 billion by the end of the year. The top line is expected to further advance at a compounded annual growth rate (\"CAGR\") of about 16% towards $6.6 billion by 2030. The growth assumptions applied remain consistent with those discussed in our previous analysis, considering Palantir's business model and operating environment has not materially changed. Recent contract wins and renewals also support the viability of management's goal to grow Palantir's revenues by 30% every year for the next five years, indicating that the narrative surrounding its bullish thesis remains intact.Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.Specifically, government segment revenues are forecast at $896.2 million by the end of the year, representing growth of 41.8% from 2020. While deal flows are expected to remain strong within the foreseeable future considering Palantir's proven effectiveness in delivery solutions that can address data challenges within the public sector and increasing defense opportunities allocated towards software and innovative technology, the segment's growth is expected to ultimately normalize towards an average range of 28% to 30% over the next five years. Based on this consideration, our forecast projects government revenues to advance towards $2.5 billion by 2025 and $3.8 billion by 2030, representing growth at a 10-year CAGR of 15.6%.Meanwhile, commercial segment revenue growth is expected to remain robust in coming years. Palantir's continued roll-out of attractive purchase options and modular add-on offerings targeted at specific industry needs are expected to encourage further adoption of Foundry in the long-run. Paired with a growing base of contracted commercial segment revenues, which is currently valued at more than $2 billion with an average duration of four years, our forecast expects Palantir to realize related sales of $630.8 million by the end of the year. And in the coming years, commercial segment revenues are expected to further advance at a 10-year CAGR of 16.1% towards $2.8 billion by 2030, with the bulk of the growth frontloaded in the first half of the decade to reflect accelerating market demand for holistic data compilation and analytical tools like Foundry.Combined with Palantir's projected cost structure, which takes into consideration the highly scalable nature of its software offerings as discussed in our previous coverage, the company is expected to generate narrowing losses of $464.0 million to $117.5 million until 2024. Nominal profits of $141.1 million are projected for 2025, with further growth towards $1.5 billion by 2030.Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.i. Base Case Financial Forecast:Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.ValuationSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.Drawing on the above analysis on Palantir's financial prospects, our 12-month price target is set at $25.45. This represents upside potential of close to 37% based on the last traded share price of $18.58 on December 28th.Our valuation analysis is derived from a discounted cash flow (\"DCF\") analysis over a five-year discrete period in conjunction with the base case financial projections for Palantir as discussed in earlier sections. A WACC of 9.3% is applied to discount Palantir's projected free cash flows over the forecasted period. The valuation assumption applied is consistent with the company's risk profile and capital structure, which is currently debt-free with an ability to generate robust cash flows into the long-run. The analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 110.8x, which is derived based on Palantir's size of operations, current growth initiatives and business outlook relative to its industry peers. This compares to an EV/ETBIDA range of 43.66x to 198.65x observed across guideline public companies within the same industry.i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.We have also used a multiple-based valuation approach to validate our 12-month price target derived using the DCF approach. By applying a forward-looking price-to-sales multiple of 27.7x to projected revenues per share for the next 12 months, the Palantir stock is expected to trade at approximately $25.93, which is in line with our DCF analysis. The multiple is consistent with those observed across Palantir's industry peers, as well as market expectations on the company's near-term valuation based on its current operating environment, business developments and growth trajectory.ii. Price-to-Sales Multiple-Based Valuation:Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.ConclusionAccelerated digitization across enterprises of all sizes and industries, and an increasing urgency to mend the fragmented nature of databases across the public sector will continue to drive tremendous demand for holistic data compilation and analytics solutions like Foundry and Gotham in coming years. The technological effectiveness and scalability of Palantir's products also make them attractive solutions for handling increasingly complex data challenges. Looking ahead, Palantir remains well-poised to capitalize on significant growth opportunities presented by both the public and private sectors, which is expected to soon materialize into promising upsides for the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3914,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/692195836"}
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