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2021-12-30
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The S&P 500 could have 16% upside through the end of 2022, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says<blockquote>Fundstrat 的 Tom Lee 表示，到 2022 年底，标普500可能有 16% 的上涨空间</blockquote>
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But that estimate could be too conservative, according to a Wednesday note from Fundstrat.</p><p><blockquote>他已经将标普500的目标价设定为 2022 年底前 5,100 美元，较周二收盘价可能上涨约 7%。但根据 Fundstrat 周三的一份报告，这一估计可能过于保守。</blockquote></p><p>With the S&P 500 up nearly 30% in 2021, a historical analysis of past market returns suggests gains could extend higher into next year. Since 1938, the stock market has generated an average and median annual gain of 12% and 16%, respectively, in the year following a rise of at least 27%, according to Lee.</p><p><blockquote>随着标普500在2021年上涨近30%，对过去市场回报的历史分析表明，涨幅可能会延续到明年。Lee 表示，自 1938 年以来，股市在上涨至少 27% 后的一年中，平均和中位数分别为 12% 和 16%。</blockquote></p><p>Those potential gains would send the S&P 500 to between 5,400 and 5,600. "Most years post +27% gains are actually very good...thus, we believe our base case of S&P 500 5,100 is conservative," he said.</p><p><blockquote>这些潜在收益将使标普500达到 5,400 至 5,600 之间。“+27% 涨幅后的大多数年份实际上都非常好……因此，我们认为标普500 5,100 的基本情况是保守的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>The rise in stocks isn't just being driven by momentum. It's also being buoyed by a strong economic backdrop and rising corporate profits. "The rise in equities, in our view, has been justified by the substantial economic resilience coupled with tremendous operating leverage of businesses," Lee explained.</p><p><blockquote>股市的上涨不仅仅是由势头推动的。强劲的经济背景和不断增长的企业利润也对其起到了提振作用。李解释说：“我们认为，强劲的经济弹性加上企业巨大的运营杠杆，证明了股市的上涨是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p>Still, despite the bright outlook, the Fundstrat team is expecting significant turbulence in 2022, especially in the first half of the year. That's because COVID cases could remain elevated, supply-chain glitches may persist, mid-term elections could contribute to uncertainty, and the Fed is on the verge of raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，尽管前景光明，Fundstrat 团队预计 2022 年将出现重大动荡，尤其是上半年。这是因为新冠病例可能仍然居高不下，供应链故障可能持续存在，中期选举可能会加剧不确定性，而且美联储即将加息。</blockquote></p><p>The question to Lee remains that if those risks are obvious, have they already been discounted by investors?</p><p><blockquote>李的问题仍然是，如果这些风险显而易见，投资者是否已经低估了这些风险？</blockquote></p><p>Whether they have or not, a 2022 gain of "+12% to +16% probably more appropriate," Lee said.</p><p><blockquote>李说，无论他们是否有，2022 年“+12% 至 +16% 的涨幅可能更合适”。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 could have 16% upside through the end of 2022, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says<blockquote>Fundstrat 的 Tom Lee 表示，到 2022 年底，标普500可能有 16% 的上涨空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 could have 16% upside through the end of 2022, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says<blockquote>Fundstrat 的 Tom Lee 表示，到 2022 年底，标普500可能有 16% 的上涨空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Markets insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 16:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>The S&P 500 could surge 16% in 2022 to 5,600, according to a note from Fundstrat's Tom Lee.</b></li><li><b>He pointed out that since 1938, returns have been strong for stocks in the year after a 27% gain.</b></li><li><b>"Our S&P 500 5,100 by year-end 2022 target looks conservative, but we also expect plenty of turbulence," Lee said.</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5675d806b794ec8372558219eb7863b4\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>根据 Fundstrat 的 Tom Lee 的一份报告，2022 年标普500可能会飙升 16%，达到 5,600 人。</b></li><li><b>他指出，自1938年以来，股票在上涨27%后，这一年的回报率一直很强劲。</b></li><li><b>“我们到 2022 年底实现的标普500 5,100 辆的目标看起来很保守，但我们也预计会出现很多动荡，”李说。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯宾塞·普拉特/盖蒂图片社</span></p></body></html></blockquote></p><p>Strength in the stock market after a solid 2021 is likely to continue into next year, as momentum continues to drive equities higher, according to Fundstrat's Tom lee.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat 的 Tom lee 表示，在经历了稳健的 2021 年之后，股市的强势可能会持续到明年，因为势头继续推动股市走高。</blockquote></p><p>He has already set a S&P 500 price target of 5,100 by the end of 2022,representing potential upside of about 7% from Tuesday's close. But that estimate could be too conservative, according to a Wednesday note from Fundstrat.</p><p><blockquote>他已经将标普500的目标价设定为 2022 年底前 5,100 美元，较周二收盘价可能上涨约 7%。但根据 Fundstrat 周三的一份报告，这一估计可能过于保守。</blockquote></p><p>With the S&P 500 up nearly 30% in 2021, a historical analysis of past market returns suggests gains could extend higher into next year. Since 1938, the stock market has generated an average and median annual gain of 12% and 16%, respectively, in the year following a rise of at least 27%, according to Lee.</p><p><blockquote>随着标普500在2021年上涨近30%，对过去市场回报的历史分析表明，涨幅可能会延续到明年。Lee 表示，自 1938 年以来，股市在上涨至少 27% 后的一年中，平均和中位数分别为 12% 和 16%。</blockquote></p><p>Those potential gains would send the S&P 500 to between 5,400 and 5,600. "Most years post +27% gains are actually very good...thus, we believe our base case of S&P 500 5,100 is conservative," he said.</p><p><blockquote>这些潜在收益将使标普500达到 5,400 至 5,600 之间。“+27% 涨幅后的大多数年份实际上都非常好……因此，我们认为标普500 5,100 的基本情况是保守的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>The rise in stocks isn't just being driven by momentum. It's also being buoyed by a strong economic backdrop and rising corporate profits. "The rise in equities, in our view, has been justified by the substantial economic resilience coupled with tremendous operating leverage of businesses," Lee explained.</p><p><blockquote>股市的上涨不仅仅是由势头推动的。强劲的经济背景和不断增长的企业利润也对其起到了提振作用。李解释说：“我们认为，强劲的经济弹性加上企业巨大的运营杠杆，证明了股市的上涨是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p>Still, despite the bright outlook, the Fundstrat team is expecting significant turbulence in 2022, especially in the first half of the year. That's because COVID cases could remain elevated, supply-chain glitches may persist, mid-term elections could contribute to uncertainty, and the Fed is on the verge of raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，尽管前景光明，Fundstrat 团队预计 2022 年将出现重大动荡，尤其是上半年。这是因为新冠病例可能仍然居高不下，供应链故障可能持续存在，中期选举可能会加剧不确定性，而且美联储即将加息。</blockquote></p><p>The question to Lee remains that if those risks are obvious, have they already been discounted by investors?</p><p><blockquote>李的问题仍然是，如果这些风险显而易见，投资者是否已经低估了这些风险？</blockquote></p><p>Whether they have or not, a 2022 gain of "+12% to +16% probably more appropriate," Lee said.</p><p><blockquote>李说，无论他们是否有，2022 年“+12% 至 +16% 的涨幅可能更合适”。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-strong-year-signals-more-upside-2022-2021-12\">Markets insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-strong-year-signals-more-upside-2022-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125407253","content_text":"The S&P 500 could surge 16% in 2022 to 5,600, according to a note from Fundstrat's Tom Lee.He pointed out that since 1938, returns have been strong for stocks in the year after a 27% gain.\"Our S&P 500 5,100 by year-end 2022 target looks conservative, but we also expect plenty of turbulence,\" Lee said.Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesStrength in the stock market after a solid 2021 is likely to continue into next year, as momentum continues to drive equities higher, according to Fundstrat's Tom lee.He has already set a S&P 500 price target of 5,100 by the end of 2022,representing potential upside of about 7% from Tuesday's close. But that estimate could be too conservative, according to a Wednesday note from Fundstrat.With the S&P 500 up nearly 30% in 2021, a historical analysis of past market returns suggests gains could extend higher into next year. Since 1938, the stock market has generated an average and median annual gain of 12% and 16%, respectively, in the year following a rise of at least 27%, according to Lee.Those potential gains would send the S&P 500 to between 5,400 and 5,600. \"Most years post +27% gains are actually very good...thus, we believe our base case of S&P 500 5,100 is conservative,\" he said.The rise in stocks isn't just being driven by momentum. It's also being buoyed by a strong economic backdrop and rising corporate profits. \"The rise in equities, in our view, has been justified by the substantial economic resilience coupled with tremendous operating leverage of businesses,\" Lee explained.Still, despite the bright outlook, the Fundstrat team is expecting significant turbulence in 2022, especially in the first half of the year. That's because COVID cases could remain elevated, supply-chain glitches may persist, mid-term elections could contribute to uncertainty, and the Fed is on the verge of raising interest rates.The question to Lee remains that if those risks are obvious, have they already been discounted by investors?Whether they have or not, a 2022 gain of \"+12% to +16% probably more appropriate,\" Lee said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5641,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/692351978"}
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