Vivianchia
2022-01-01
Agree
DocuSign: COVID Or Not, E-Signature Is Here To Stay<blockquote>DocuSign：无论是否感染新冠病毒，电子签名都会继续存在</blockquote>
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Following its Q3'22 earnings release, there was a market reaction that resulted in a 40% drop in stock price. Let's look into the results to assess whether the drop is warranted.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前从22年第二季度的业绩中概述了DocuSign（纳斯达克：DOCU）。22年第三季度财报发布后，市场反应导致股价下跌40%。让我们看看结果，以评估下降是否合理。</blockquote></p><p><b>Q3'22 Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>22年第三季度财务状况</b></blockquote></p><p>We will be looking at only subscription revenue as it is the reflection of the strength of DocuSign's product offerings, comprising ~97% of their revenue. The management is looking to gradually move all its professional integration services to partners so that they can fully focus on improving & selling their products.</p><p><blockquote>我们将仅关注订阅收入，因为它反映了DocuSign产品实力，约占其收入的97%。管理层希望逐步将其所有专业集成服务转移给合作伙伴，以便他们能够完全专注于改进和销售他们的产品。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d44789450f393554fcd235fd3cfd78d8\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: DOCU's SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DOCU向SEC提交的文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>DocuSign achieved a record $529 million in subscription revenue in Q3. However, the YoY growth rates have been normalizing back to pre-Covid levels.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign在第三季度实现了创纪录的5.29亿美元订阅收入。然而，同比增长率已恢复至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50155de13c99d996738c7412a818343d\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: DOCU's SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DOCU向SEC提交的文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Billings are the amount invoiced to customers in the quarter. It includes both current and future quarter revenue since customers usually pre-pay for annual contracts. Hence, this metric will give a partial glimpse into future quarters' performance. Due to the variety of contractual terms and customer usage patterns, there's bound to be quarterly fluctuations, thus management always advises to view it from a trailing twelve months basis.</p><p><blockquote>账单是本季度向客户开具的发票金额。它包括当前和未来季度的收入，因为客户通常为年度合同预付费用。因此，该指标将部分了解未来几个季度的表现。由于合同条款和客户使用模式的多样性，肯定会有季度波动，因此管理层总是建议从过去12个月的基础上看待它。</blockquote></p><p>However, by just looking at Q3'22 billing YoY growth, it seems to be one of the negative factors affecting investors' confidence. Q3'21 is the period where companies are starting to resume normal operations digitally, as lockdowns begin to loosen after the initial shock from COVID. (This phenomenon was also reflected in Airbnb's (NASDAQ:ABNB) Q3'20 booking numbers as shown in our previous article.) Thus, it created huge demands for e-signatures, even if companies might not know the full extent of use cases yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仅从22年第三季度的账单同比增长来看，这似乎是影响投资者信心的负面因素之一。21年第三季度是公司开始恢复正常数字化运营的时期，因为在COVID的最初冲击之后，封锁开始放松。（如我们上一篇文章所示，这种现象也反映在Airbnb（纳斯达克：ABNB）20年第三季度的预订数据中。）因此，它创造了对电子签名的巨大需求，即使公司可能还不知道用例的全部范围。</blockquote></p><p>For Q3'22 to show such a large deceleration in growth, there can be two reasons: 1) Companies bought excessive capacity in their initial buy just to prepare for any downturns in events, and have not consumed all. 2) Companies bought small capacity, and have already renewed with larger contracts in the subsequent quarters. Either reason reflected a slowdown in consumption patterns.</p><p><blockquote>22年第三季度出现如此大幅度的增长减速，可能有两个原因：1）公司在最初的购买中购买了过多的产能，只是为了为任何事件的低迷做好准备，但并没有全部消耗。2）公司购买了较小的产能，并在随后的几个季度续签了较大的合同。这两个原因都反映了消费模式的放缓。</blockquote></p><p>Additionally, there was a slight sales execution issue causing this as mentioned by CEO Daniel Springer in the earnings call. From the onset of COVID, they were very focused on rapidly capturing the demand up till now. This shifted their focus away from educating customers on the extensive use cases, which they used to do as part of their "land & expand" strategy.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正如首席执行官Daniel Springer在收益看涨期权中提到的那样，还有一个轻微的销售执行问题导致了这种情况。从COVID开始，他们就非常专注于快速捕捉需求，直到现在。这将他们的重点从教育客户广泛的用例上转移开来，这是他们过去做的“土地和扩张”战略的一部分。</blockquote></p><p>We stopped doing that as people just need more and more volume for their existing use cases, right? And so I think that's the gap in our execution. And as Cynthia described, a huge portion of our field has joined since pandemic began because we've been growing at such a rate. And we haven't done the job we need to do at enabling them at the traditional DocuSign sort of land and expand processes.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45d1bcb79a78644507925af0132f1237\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"519\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Winter 2021 Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote>我们不再这样做了，因为人们只是需要越来越多的容量来满足他们现有的用例，对吗？所以我认为这就是我们执行力的差距。正如Cynthia所描述的，自大流行开始以来，我们领域的很大一部分已经加入，因为我们一直在以这样的速度增长。我们还没有完成我们需要做的工作，在传统的DocuSign类型的土地和扩展流程中启用它们。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：2021年冬季投资者介绍会</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Despite the slowdown in revenue & billings growth, Net Dollar Retention ("NDR") rates are still looking healthy. It should be noted that NDR rates were still being driven by the expansion of e-signature use cases, as the application of Agreement Cloud is still in the early stages (more on it below).</p><p><blockquote>尽管收入和账单增长放缓，但净美元保留率（“NDR”）看起来仍然健康。应该指出的是，NDR费率仍然受到电子签名用例扩展的推动，因为协议云的应用仍处于早期阶段（下文将详细介绍）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Management Guidance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>管理指导</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a37d6638669dc240d320586aabd975a\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"266\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Calls</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：评级收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Management had initially expected their COVID demand to die down from the start of Q1, thus guiding full-year billings growth of only 31% during Q4'21. Due to the unexpected growth for the first 2 quarters, the management optimistically adjusted their guidance. The slowdown in growth then happened in Q3, missing the guidance, which might have surprised them. As a result, they lowered their Q4 guidance. These moves seldom go well with investors, sending the stock down 40%.</p><p><blockquote>管理层最初预计新冠疫情需求将从第一季度初开始下降，因此预计21年第四季度全年账单增长仅为31%。由于前两个季度的意外增长，管理层乐观地调整了指引。然后增长放缓发生在第三季度，没有达到指引，这可能会让他们感到惊讶。因此，他们降低了第四季度的指引。这些举措很少受到投资者的欢迎，导致该股下跌40%。</blockquote></p><p><b>COVID Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新冠股票？</b></blockquote></p><p>A mention of "COVID Stocks" brings to mind Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) and DocuSign. Both businesses enable remote working through video conferencing and e-signature respectively. A look at Zoom's revenue growth clearly showed how COVID impacted their business.</p><p><blockquote>提到“COVID股票”就会让人想起Zoom（纳斯达克股票代码：ZM）和DocuSign。这两项业务分别通过视频会议和电子签名实现远程工作。看看Zoom的收入增长就清楚地表明了新冠疫情对他们业务的影响。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a702a96d104f06d54230b8cc7ef696\" tg-width=\"752\" tg-height=\"452\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Zoom's SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zoom向SEC提交的文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Despite showing similar growth profiles, it would be unfair to project such a massive growth deceleration for DocuSign. As users start returning to offices, it's more likely for them to switch back to in-person meetings than returning to manual mailing processes to close agreements. In-person meetings still have intangible benefits that video conferencing can't provide. On the other hand, e-signatures are simply cheaper, faster, and more accessible, providing a clear Return On Investment ("ROI") for users that have switched.</p><p><blockquote>尽管显示出类似的增长情况，但预测DocuSign的增长如此大幅减速是不公平的。随着用户开始返回办公室，他们更有可能切换回面对面会议，而不是返回手动邮件流程来达成协议。面对面的会议仍然有视频会议无法提供的无形好处。另一方面，电子签名更便宜、更快、更容易获得，为已经转换的用户提供了明确的投资回报（“ROI”）。</blockquote></p><p>Agreement Cloud Progress</p><p><blockquote>协议云进度</blockquote></p><p>E-signature has become part of the larger Agreement Cloud offering from DocuSign. The remaining components such as Contract Lifecycle Management ("CLM") require a more extensive rollout as enterprise software needs to be integrated, lengthening the whole sales cycle to about 3-4 quarters. Thus, the initial sales traction gained from pre-COVID was put to an abrupt stop when customers chose to focus on the more mission-critical e-signature. The immediate ROI and ease of implementation digitally also played a part.</p><p><blockquote>电子签名已经成为DocuSign更大的协议云产品的一部分。由于需要集成企业软件，合同生命周期管理（“CLM”）等剩余组件需要更广泛的推广，从而将整个销售周期延长至约3-4个季度。因此，当客户选择专注于更关键任务的电子签名时，从COVID之前获得的最初销售牵引力突然停止了。直接的投资回报率和数字化实施的便利性也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p>As per CEO Springer during Q1'22 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官Springer在22年第一季度收益看涨期权上表示：</blockquote></p><p>"Now we see those starting to come back. And so we see the pipeline starting to build, as we did actually starting in Q4 start more aggressively there. So those are demonstrably coming back, and I think those will be larger deal sizes that we will see.Interest in Agreement Cloud is starting to pick up again as businesses adapt to the new way of working. And basing it on the estimated sales cycle, the growth should be back on track. Agreement cloud has the potential to put DocuSign above the other e-signature providers, albeit only showing insignificant revenue for now. Readers do have to note that this is still considered a greenfield opportunity for the company, and it will be up to the management to effectively market its value proposition.</p><p><blockquote>“现在我们看到这些开始回来。因此，我们看到管道开始建设，就像我们实际上从第四季度开始更积极地开始一样。因此，这些显然会回来，我认为这些将是更大的交易规模随着企业适应新的工作方式，对协议云的兴趣开始再次回升。根据估计的销售周期，增长应该会回到正轨。Agreement cloud有潜力将DocuSign置于其他电子签名提供商之上，尽管目前仅显示出微不足道的收入。读者确实必须注意到，这仍然被认为是公司的一个绿地机会，将由管理层来有效地推销其价值主张。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customers' Reviews</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户评价</b></blockquote></p><p>The company interviewed users from Unilever (LON:ULVR)(NYSE:UL) and Snowflake (NASDAQ:SNOW) during their 2021 Analyst Day.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2021年分析师日期间采访了联合利华(LON：ULVR)(NYSE：UL)和Snowflake(纳斯达克：SNOW)的用户。</blockquote></p><p>One of the highlights was that Unilever had already been using SpringCM and Seal software when they were still independent companies. Both were then acquired by DocuSign as part of Agreement Cloud products. According to Lim Wei Ling, Unilever's Global Supply Chain General Counsel:</p><p><blockquote>其中一个亮点是，当SpringCM和Seal还是独立公司时，联合利华就已经在使用它们了。两者随后都被DocuSign收购，作为协议云产品的一部分。联合利华全球供应链总法律顾问Lim Wei Ling表示：</blockquote></p><p>And so primary driver was to find ways to give time back to our colleagues, give time back to our business partners, so that they can do even more value-add work and also to create capabilities that will generate data-driven insights for them that they can take action on. And so it was with this in mind that we wanted to take advantage of the contract automation, the contract building capabilities and the contract analytics capabilities in the Agreement Cloud.This validates the whole Agreement Cloud concept, showing that it's not just a bold vision from the management team.</p><p><blockquote>因此，主要驱动力是找到方法将时间回馈给我们的同事，将时间回馈给我们的业务合作伙伴，以便他们可以做更多的增值工作，并创造能力，为他们生成数据驱动的见解，他们可以采取行动。因此，考虑到这一点，我们希望利用协议云中的合同自动化、合同构建功能和合同分析功能。这验证了整个协议云概念，表明这不仅仅是管理团队的大胆愿景。</blockquote></p><p>In addition, Snowflake chose to use DocuSign over other providers as they offer a future roadmap. This fits into the company's "land & expand" strategy - from introducing e-signatures to gradually utilizing the different components of the whole Agreement cloud - allowing users to achieve more ROI as they explore more of the use cases.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Snowflake选择使用DocuSign而不是其他提供商，因为他们提供了未来的路线图。这符合该公司的“land&expand”战略——从引入电子签名到逐步利用整个协议云的不同组件——允许用户在探索更多用例时获得更多投资回报。</blockquote></p><p>Looking at the reviews from G2.com&Gartner, DocuSign's e-signature is at a premium pricing above the rest. Despite that, it's still the undisputed leader in the e-signature market. The strength of its brand, its integration to many enterprise software, and potential extensions to other value-adding software certainly justify the costs.</p><p><blockquote>从G2.com和Gartner的评论来看，DocuSign的电子签名定价高于其他产品。尽管如此，它仍然是电子签名市场无可争议的领导者。其品牌实力、与许多企业软件的集成以及对其他增值软件的潜在扩展无疑证明了成本的合理性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279430e025777ecf2a913e148ab211dd\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"642\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Winter 2021 Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：2021年冬季投资者介绍会</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p>Similar to our Q2'22 article, we will use a 5 year Discounted Cash Flow ("DCF") valuation method to determine a fair value for DocuSign, and bring it back to its present value.</p><p><blockquote>与我们22年第2季度的文章类似，我们将使用5年贴现现金流(“DCF”)估值方法来确定DocuSign的公允价值，并将其恢复到现值。</blockquote></p><p>We have shared how we derived the variables such as Discount Rate, Dilution, and Exit Price Multiple. The variables and the assumptions made are the same, except for the drop in year 1 revenue growth rates. Using the recent quarter growth rate, we brought down the revenue growth from 50% to 40% to give a more conservative estimate.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经分享了如何推导贴现率、稀释度和退出价格倍数等变量。变量和所做的假设是相同的，除了第一年收入增长率下降。利用最近一个季度的增长率，我们将收入增长率从50%下调至40%，以给出更保守的估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537c128d1b5c973dfbbe82d15aa29330\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author's estimates with DOCU's SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者对DOCU向SEC提交的文件的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We derived an intrinsic per-share value of $219. As of 28th Dec'21 closing price at $152, there's an implied upside of at least 40%.</p><p><blockquote>我们得出的每股内在价值为219美元。截至21年12月28日收盘价152美元，隐含上涨空间至少为40%。</blockquote></p><p>Using the same assumptions (except year 1 growth rate) and working backward from the closing price of $152, the market is expecting a drastic growth slowdown and year 5 revenue of USD 5.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>使用相同的假设（除了第一年的增长率）并从152美元的收盘价向后计算，市场预计增长将急剧放缓，第五年收入为57亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce724df4aaa47bd2a9ce56dc3c385fd\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author's estimates with DOCU's SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者对DOCU向SEC提交的文件的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The management indicated during their Analyst Dayt hat the near-term goal of USD 5 billion will still be mainly from e-signatures. This means that at current prices, the market is not pricing in any growth from the Agreement Cloud in the next 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层在分析师日表示，50亿美元的近期目标仍将主要来自电子签名。这意味着，按照目前的价格，市场并未计入未来5年协议云的任何增长。</blockquote></p><p><b>Insider Buying</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内幕购买</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite the Q3'22 results which caused the share price to drop 40%, something that caught our attention is that CEO Springer bought $5 million worth of DOCU's shares after the drop.</p><p><blockquote>尽管22年第三季度的业绩导致股价下跌40%，但引起我们注意的是，首席执行官施普林格在股价下跌后购买了价值500万美元的DOCU股票。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74319b1acc664e1ff67fff037599170\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"825\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e804a595ee217a4e80ef5637ddcb9c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"317\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SEC Form 4 7th Dec & 8th Dec</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SEC表格4 12月7日和12月8日</span></p></blockquote></p><p>When asked about his buying decision during a UBS investor conference on 8th Dec, he mentioned:</p><p><blockquote>当在12月8日的瑞银投资者会议上被问及他的购买决定时，他提到：</blockquote></p><p>I'm very confident. I'm making a good investment. And as I've said openly, if the stock doesn't react over the coming days, weeks, months and doesn't get sort of more in line with where I think it should be, I'll continue to be a buyer.As an insider with full knowledge of the pipelines and daily operations, this move displayed huge confidence in DocuSign's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>我很有信心。我做了一笔不错的投资。正如我公开表示的那样，如果该股在未来几天、几周、几个月内没有做出反应，并且没有更加符合我认为应该达到的水平，我将继续成为买家。作为对管道和日常运营有充分了解的内部人士，此举显示了对DocuSign前景的巨大信心。</blockquote></p><p><b>Closing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关闭</b></blockquote></p><p>The pandemic had made e-signature a mission-critical software for businesses to operate in today's "Anywhere Economy". DocuSign is positioning itself by being more than that, as e-signatures get commoditized. By tapping on its industry-leading brand presence, the company is leading customers into its larger value-adding Agreement Cloud.</p><p><blockquote>疫情使电子签名成为企业在当今“随处经济”中运营的关键任务软件。随着电子签名的商品化，DocuSign的定位不止于此。通过利用其行业领先的品牌影响力，该公司正在带领客户进入其更大的增值协议云。</blockquote></p><p>Current prices seemed to only factor in the growth of e-signature. Even though the whole Agreement Cloud segment is still small, there are already customers utilizing specific products. As DocuSign gradually gets embedded into customers' workflows with more products, its software will become stickier. With increasing sales traction, the Agreement Cloud has the potential to become a game-changer and key revenue contribution for DocuSign in the near future.</p><p><blockquote>目前的价格似乎只是电子签名增长的一个因素。尽管整个协议云领域仍然很小，但已经有客户在使用特定的产品。随着DocuSign逐渐通过更多产品嵌入客户的工作流程，其软件将变得更具粘性。随着销售吸引力的增加，协议云有可能在不久的将来成为DocuSign的游戏规则改变者和主要收入贡献。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DocuSign: COVID Or Not, E-Signature Is Here To Stay<blockquote>DocuSign：无论是否感染新冠病毒，电子签名都会继续存在</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDocuSign: COVID Or Not, E-Signature Is Here To Stay<blockquote>DocuSign：无论是否感染新冠病毒，电子签名都会继续存在</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-31 20:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Management missed billings guidance coming into Q3’22, resulting in market reaction.</li><li>E-signatures are still going to be used even when businesses are slowly returning to offices due to its convenience, unlike Zoom’s video conferencing.</li><li>The Agreement Cloud is gaining back traction after an abrupt stop caused by COVID.</li><li>At current prices, only growth of e-signature revenues in the next 5 years is priced in.</li><li>CEO Dan Springer purchased $5M worth of stock after earnings.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e4aeb6a856c1f9be8d691856077329\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>管理层错过了22年第三季度的账单指引，导致市场反应。</li><li>与Zoom的视频会议不同，即使企业因其便利性而慢慢返回办公室，电子签名仍将被使用。</li><li>在因新冠疫情而突然停止后，协议云正在重新获得牵引力。</li><li>按照目前的价格，只有未来5年电子签名收入的增长才被计入价格。</li><li>首席执行官丹·斯普林格(Dan Springer)在财报公布后购买了价值500万美元的股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>This article is contributed by Douglas from our Superstocks Seekers team.</p><p><blockquote>本文由我们超级股票搜索团队的道格拉斯供稿。</blockquote></p><p><i>[To receive real-time notifications of our latest updates/articles, click the "Follow" button on the left of your screen.]</i></p><p><blockquote><i>[要接收我们最新更新/文章的实时通知，请单击屏幕左侧的“关注”按钮。]</i></blockquote></p><p>We previously gave an overview of DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU) from Q2'22 results. Following its Q3'22 earnings release, there was a market reaction that resulted in a 40% drop in stock price. Let's look into the results to assess whether the drop is warranted.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前从22年第二季度的业绩中概述了DocuSign（纳斯达克：DOCU）。22年第三季度财报发布后，市场反应导致股价下跌40%。让我们看看结果，以评估下降是否合理。</blockquote></p><p><b>Q3'22 Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>22年第三季度财务状况</b></blockquote></p><p>We will be looking at only subscription revenue as it is the reflection of the strength of DocuSign's product offerings, comprising ~97% of their revenue. The management is looking to gradually move all its professional integration services to partners so that they can fully focus on improving & selling their products.</p><p><blockquote>我们将仅关注订阅收入，因为它反映了DocuSign产品实力，约占其收入的97%。管理层希望逐步将其所有专业集成服务转移给合作伙伴，以便他们能够完全专注于改进和销售他们的产品。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d44789450f393554fcd235fd3cfd78d8\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: DOCU's SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DOCU向SEC提交的文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>DocuSign achieved a record $529 million in subscription revenue in Q3. However, the YoY growth rates have been normalizing back to pre-Covid levels.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign在第三季度实现了创纪录的5.29亿美元订阅收入。然而，同比增长率已恢复至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50155de13c99d996738c7412a818343d\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: DOCU's SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DOCU向SEC提交的文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Billings are the amount invoiced to customers in the quarter. It includes both current and future quarter revenue since customers usually pre-pay for annual contracts. Hence, this metric will give a partial glimpse into future quarters' performance. Due to the variety of contractual terms and customer usage patterns, there's bound to be quarterly fluctuations, thus management always advises to view it from a trailing twelve months basis.</p><p><blockquote>账单是本季度向客户开具的发票金额。它包括当前和未来季度的收入，因为客户通常为年度合同预付费用。因此，该指标将部分了解未来几个季度的表现。由于合同条款和客户使用模式的多样性，肯定会有季度波动，因此管理层总是建议从过去12个月的基础上看待它。</blockquote></p><p>However, by just looking at Q3'22 billing YoY growth, it seems to be one of the negative factors affecting investors' confidence. Q3'21 is the period where companies are starting to resume normal operations digitally, as lockdowns begin to loosen after the initial shock from COVID. (This phenomenon was also reflected in Airbnb's (NASDAQ:ABNB) Q3'20 booking numbers as shown in our previous article.) Thus, it created huge demands for e-signatures, even if companies might not know the full extent of use cases yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仅从22年第三季度的账单同比增长来看，这似乎是影响投资者信心的负面因素之一。21年第三季度是公司开始恢复正常数字化运营的时期，因为在COVID的最初冲击之后，封锁开始放松。（如我们上一篇文章所示，这种现象也反映在Airbnb（纳斯达克：ABNB）20年第三季度的预订数据中。）因此，它创造了对电子签名的巨大需求，即使公司可能还不知道用例的全部范围。</blockquote></p><p>For Q3'22 to show such a large deceleration in growth, there can be two reasons: 1) Companies bought excessive capacity in their initial buy just to prepare for any downturns in events, and have not consumed all. 2) Companies bought small capacity, and have already renewed with larger contracts in the subsequent quarters. Either reason reflected a slowdown in consumption patterns.</p><p><blockquote>22年第三季度出现如此大幅度的增长减速，可能有两个原因：1）公司在最初的购买中购买了过多的产能，只是为了为任何事件的低迷做好准备，但并没有全部消耗。2）公司购买了较小的产能，并在随后的几个季度续签了较大的合同。这两个原因都反映了消费模式的放缓。</blockquote></p><p>Additionally, there was a slight sales execution issue causing this as mentioned by CEO Daniel Springer in the earnings call. From the onset of COVID, they were very focused on rapidly capturing the demand up till now. This shifted their focus away from educating customers on the extensive use cases, which they used to do as part of their "land & expand" strategy.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正如首席执行官Daniel Springer在收益看涨期权中提到的那样，还有一个轻微的销售执行问题导致了这种情况。从COVID开始，他们就非常专注于快速捕捉需求，直到现在。这将他们的重点从教育客户广泛的用例上转移开来，这是他们过去做的“土地和扩张”战略的一部分。</blockquote></p><p>We stopped doing that as people just need more and more volume for their existing use cases, right? And so I think that's the gap in our execution. And as Cynthia described, a huge portion of our field has joined since pandemic began because we've been growing at such a rate. And we haven't done the job we need to do at enabling them at the traditional DocuSign sort of land and expand processes.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45d1bcb79a78644507925af0132f1237\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"519\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Winter 2021 Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote>我们不再这样做了，因为人们只是需要越来越多的容量来满足他们现有的用例，对吗？所以我认为这就是我们执行力的差距。正如Cynthia所描述的，自大流行开始以来，我们领域的很大一部分已经加入，因为我们一直在以这样的速度增长。我们还没有完成我们需要做的工作，在传统的DocuSign类型的土地和扩展流程中启用它们。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：2021年冬季投资者介绍会</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Despite the slowdown in revenue & billings growth, Net Dollar Retention ("NDR") rates are still looking healthy. It should be noted that NDR rates were still being driven by the expansion of e-signature use cases, as the application of Agreement Cloud is still in the early stages (more on it below).</p><p><blockquote>尽管收入和账单增长放缓，但净美元保留率（“NDR”）看起来仍然健康。应该指出的是，NDR费率仍然受到电子签名用例扩展的推动，因为协议云的应用仍处于早期阶段（下文将详细介绍）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Management Guidance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>管理指导</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a37d6638669dc240d320586aabd975a\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"266\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Calls</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：评级收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Management had initially expected their COVID demand to die down from the start of Q1, thus guiding full-year billings growth of only 31% during Q4'21. Due to the unexpected growth for the first 2 quarters, the management optimistically adjusted their guidance. The slowdown in growth then happened in Q3, missing the guidance, which might have surprised them. As a result, they lowered their Q4 guidance. These moves seldom go well with investors, sending the stock down 40%.</p><p><blockquote>管理层最初预计新冠疫情需求将从第一季度初开始下降，因此预计21年第四季度全年账单增长仅为31%。由于前两个季度的意外增长，管理层乐观地调整了指引。然后增长放缓发生在第三季度，没有达到指引，这可能会让他们感到惊讶。因此，他们降低了第四季度的指引。这些举措很少受到投资者的欢迎，导致该股下跌40%。</blockquote></p><p><b>COVID Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新冠股票？</b></blockquote></p><p>A mention of "COVID Stocks" brings to mind Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) and DocuSign. Both businesses enable remote working through video conferencing and e-signature respectively. A look at Zoom's revenue growth clearly showed how COVID impacted their business.</p><p><blockquote>提到“COVID股票”就会让人想起Zoom（纳斯达克股票代码：ZM）和DocuSign。这两项业务分别通过视频会议和电子签名实现远程工作。看看Zoom的收入增长就清楚地表明了新冠疫情对他们业务的影响。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a702a96d104f06d54230b8cc7ef696\" tg-width=\"752\" tg-height=\"452\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Zoom's SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zoom向SEC提交的文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Despite showing similar growth profiles, it would be unfair to project such a massive growth deceleration for DocuSign. As users start returning to offices, it's more likely for them to switch back to in-person meetings than returning to manual mailing processes to close agreements. In-person meetings still have intangible benefits that video conferencing can't provide. On the other hand, e-signatures are simply cheaper, faster, and more accessible, providing a clear Return On Investment ("ROI") for users that have switched.</p><p><blockquote>尽管显示出类似的增长情况，但预测DocuSign的增长如此大幅减速是不公平的。随着用户开始返回办公室，他们更有可能切换回面对面会议，而不是返回手动邮件流程来达成协议。面对面的会议仍然有视频会议无法提供的无形好处。另一方面，电子签名更便宜、更快、更容易获得，为已经转换的用户提供了明确的投资回报（“ROI”）。</blockquote></p><p>Agreement Cloud Progress</p><p><blockquote>协议云进度</blockquote></p><p>E-signature has become part of the larger Agreement Cloud offering from DocuSign. The remaining components such as Contract Lifecycle Management ("CLM") require a more extensive rollout as enterprise software needs to be integrated, lengthening the whole sales cycle to about 3-4 quarters. Thus, the initial sales traction gained from pre-COVID was put to an abrupt stop when customers chose to focus on the more mission-critical e-signature. The immediate ROI and ease of implementation digitally also played a part.</p><p><blockquote>电子签名已经成为DocuSign更大的协议云产品的一部分。由于需要集成企业软件，合同生命周期管理（“CLM”）等剩余组件需要更广泛的推广，从而将整个销售周期延长至约3-4个季度。因此，当客户选择专注于更关键任务的电子签名时，从COVID之前获得的最初销售牵引力突然停止了。直接的投资回报率和数字化实施的便利性也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p>As per CEO Springer during Q1'22 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官Springer在22年第一季度收益看涨期权上表示：</blockquote></p><p>"Now we see those starting to come back. And so we see the pipeline starting to build, as we did actually starting in Q4 start more aggressively there. So those are demonstrably coming back, and I think those will be larger deal sizes that we will see.Interest in Agreement Cloud is starting to pick up again as businesses adapt to the new way of working. And basing it on the estimated sales cycle, the growth should be back on track. Agreement cloud has the potential to put DocuSign above the other e-signature providers, albeit only showing insignificant revenue for now. Readers do have to note that this is still considered a greenfield opportunity for the company, and it will be up to the management to effectively market its value proposition.</p><p><blockquote>“现在我们看到这些开始回来。因此，我们看到管道开始建设，就像我们实际上从第四季度开始更积极地开始一样。因此，这些显然会回来，我认为这些将是更大的交易规模随着企业适应新的工作方式，对协议云的兴趣开始再次回升。根据估计的销售周期，增长应该会回到正轨。Agreement cloud有潜力将DocuSign置于其他电子签名提供商之上，尽管目前仅显示出微不足道的收入。读者确实必须注意到，这仍然被认为是公司的一个绿地机会，将由管理层来有效地推销其价值主张。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customers' Reviews</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户评价</b></blockquote></p><p>The company interviewed users from Unilever (LON:ULVR)(NYSE:UL) and Snowflake (NASDAQ:SNOW) during their 2021 Analyst Day.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2021年分析师日期间采访了联合利华(LON：ULVR)(NYSE：UL)和Snowflake(纳斯达克：SNOW)的用户。</blockquote></p><p>One of the highlights was that Unilever had already been using SpringCM and Seal software when they were still independent companies. Both were then acquired by DocuSign as part of Agreement Cloud products. According to Lim Wei Ling, Unilever's Global Supply Chain General Counsel:</p><p><blockquote>其中一个亮点是，当SpringCM和Seal还是独立公司时，联合利华就已经在使用它们了。两者随后都被DocuSign收购，作为协议云产品的一部分。联合利华全球供应链总法律顾问Lim Wei Ling表示：</blockquote></p><p>And so primary driver was to find ways to give time back to our colleagues, give time back to our business partners, so that they can do even more value-add work and also to create capabilities that will generate data-driven insights for them that they can take action on. And so it was with this in mind that we wanted to take advantage of the contract automation, the contract building capabilities and the contract analytics capabilities in the Agreement Cloud.This validates the whole Agreement Cloud concept, showing that it's not just a bold vision from the management team.</p><p><blockquote>因此，主要驱动力是找到方法将时间回馈给我们的同事，将时间回馈给我们的业务合作伙伴，以便他们可以做更多的增值工作，并创造能力，为他们生成数据驱动的见解，他们可以采取行动。因此，考虑到这一点，我们希望利用协议云中的合同自动化、合同构建功能和合同分析功能。这验证了整个协议云概念，表明这不仅仅是管理团队的大胆愿景。</blockquote></p><p>In addition, Snowflake chose to use DocuSign over other providers as they offer a future roadmap. This fits into the company's "land & expand" strategy - from introducing e-signatures to gradually utilizing the different components of the whole Agreement cloud - allowing users to achieve more ROI as they explore more of the use cases.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Snowflake选择使用DocuSign而不是其他提供商，因为他们提供了未来的路线图。这符合该公司的“land&expand”战略——从引入电子签名到逐步利用整个协议云的不同组件——允许用户在探索更多用例时获得更多投资回报。</blockquote></p><p>Looking at the reviews from G2.com&Gartner, DocuSign's e-signature is at a premium pricing above the rest. Despite that, it's still the undisputed leader in the e-signature market. The strength of its brand, its integration to many enterprise software, and potential extensions to other value-adding software certainly justify the costs.</p><p><blockquote>从G2.com和Gartner的评论来看，DocuSign的电子签名定价高于其他产品。尽管如此，它仍然是电子签名市场无可争议的领导者。其品牌实力、与许多企业软件的集成以及对其他增值软件的潜在扩展无疑证明了成本的合理性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279430e025777ecf2a913e148ab211dd\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"642\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Winter 2021 Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：2021年冬季投资者介绍会</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p>Similar to our Q2'22 article, we will use a 5 year Discounted Cash Flow ("DCF") valuation method to determine a fair value for DocuSign, and bring it back to its present value.</p><p><blockquote>与我们22年第2季度的文章类似，我们将使用5年贴现现金流(“DCF”)估值方法来确定DocuSign的公允价值，并将其恢复到现值。</blockquote></p><p>We have shared how we derived the variables such as Discount Rate, Dilution, and Exit Price Multiple. The variables and the assumptions made are the same, except for the drop in year 1 revenue growth rates. Using the recent quarter growth rate, we brought down the revenue growth from 50% to 40% to give a more conservative estimate.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经分享了如何推导贴现率、稀释度和退出价格倍数等变量。变量和所做的假设是相同的，除了第一年收入增长率下降。利用最近一个季度的增长率，我们将收入增长率从50%下调至40%，以给出更保守的估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537c128d1b5c973dfbbe82d15aa29330\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author's estimates with DOCU's SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者对DOCU向SEC提交的文件的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We derived an intrinsic per-share value of $219. As of 28th Dec'21 closing price at $152, there's an implied upside of at least 40%.</p><p><blockquote>我们得出的每股内在价值为219美元。截至21年12月28日收盘价152美元，隐含上涨空间至少为40%。</blockquote></p><p>Using the same assumptions (except year 1 growth rate) and working backward from the closing price of $152, the market is expecting a drastic growth slowdown and year 5 revenue of USD 5.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>使用相同的假设（除了第一年的增长率）并从152美元的收盘价向后计算，市场预计增长将急剧放缓，第五年收入为57亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce724df4aaa47bd2a9ce56dc3c385fd\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author's estimates with DOCU's SEC Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者对DOCU向SEC提交的文件的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The management indicated during their Analyst Dayt hat the near-term goal of USD 5 billion will still be mainly from e-signatures. This means that at current prices, the market is not pricing in any growth from the Agreement Cloud in the next 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层在分析师日表示，50亿美元的近期目标仍将主要来自电子签名。这意味着，按照目前的价格，市场并未计入未来5年协议云的任何增长。</blockquote></p><p><b>Insider Buying</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内幕购买</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite the Q3'22 results which caused the share price to drop 40%, something that caught our attention is that CEO Springer bought $5 million worth of DOCU's shares after the drop.</p><p><blockquote>尽管22年第三季度的业绩导致股价下跌40%，但引起我们注意的是，首席执行官施普林格在股价下跌后购买了价值500万美元的DOCU股票。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74319b1acc664e1ff67fff037599170\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"825\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e804a595ee217a4e80ef5637ddcb9c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"317\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SEC Form 4 7th Dec & 8th Dec</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SEC表格4 12月7日和12月8日</span></p></blockquote></p><p>When asked about his buying decision during a UBS investor conference on 8th Dec, he mentioned:</p><p><blockquote>当在12月8日的瑞银投资者会议上被问及他的购买决定时，他提到：</blockquote></p><p>I'm very confident. I'm making a good investment. And as I've said openly, if the stock doesn't react over the coming days, weeks, months and doesn't get sort of more in line with where I think it should be, I'll continue to be a buyer.As an insider with full knowledge of the pipelines and daily operations, this move displayed huge confidence in DocuSign's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>我很有信心。我做了一笔不错的投资。正如我公开表示的那样，如果该股在未来几天、几周、几个月内没有做出反应，并且没有更加符合我认为应该达到的水平，我将继续成为买家。作为对管道和日常运营有充分了解的内部人士，此举显示了对DocuSign前景的巨大信心。</blockquote></p><p><b>Closing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关闭</b></blockquote></p><p>The pandemic had made e-signature a mission-critical software for businesses to operate in today's "Anywhere Economy". DocuSign is positioning itself by being more than that, as e-signatures get commoditized. By tapping on its industry-leading brand presence, the company is leading customers into its larger value-adding Agreement Cloud.</p><p><blockquote>疫情使电子签名成为企业在当今“随处经济”中运营的关键任务软件。随着电子签名的商品化，DocuSign的定位不止于此。通过利用其行业领先的品牌影响力，该公司正在带领客户进入其更大的增值协议云。</blockquote></p><p>Current prices seemed to only factor in the growth of e-signature. Even though the whole Agreement Cloud segment is still small, there are already customers utilizing specific products. As DocuSign gradually gets embedded into customers' workflows with more products, its software will become stickier. With increasing sales traction, the Agreement Cloud has the potential to become a game-changer and key revenue contribution for DocuSign in the near future.</p><p><blockquote>目前的价格似乎只是电子签名增长的一个因素。尽管整个协议云领域仍然很小，但已经有客户在使用特定的产品。随着DocuSign逐渐通过更多产品嵌入客户的工作流程，其软件将变得更具粘性。随着销售吸引力的增加，协议云有可能在不久的将来成为DocuSign的游戏规则改变者和主要收入贡献。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477363-docusign-e-signature-is-here-to-stay\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DOCU":"Docusign"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477363-docusign-e-signature-is-here-to-stay","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125606718","content_text":"SummaryManagement missed billings guidance coming into Q3’22, resulting in market reaction.E-signatures are still going to be used even when businesses are slowly returning to offices due to its convenience, unlike Zoom’s video conferencing.The Agreement Cloud is gaining back traction after an abrupt stop caused by COVID.At current prices, only growth of e-signature revenues in the next 5 years is priced in.CEO Dan Springer purchased $5M worth of stock after earnings.Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThis article is contributed by Douglas from our Superstocks Seekers team.[To receive real-time notifications of our latest updates/articles, click the \"Follow\" button on the left of your screen.]We previously gave an overview of DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU) from Q2'22 results. Following its Q3'22 earnings release, there was a market reaction that resulted in a 40% drop in stock price. Let's look into the results to assess whether the drop is warranted.Q3'22 FinancialsWe will be looking at only subscription revenue as it is the reflection of the strength of DocuSign's product offerings, comprising ~97% of their revenue. The management is looking to gradually move all its professional integration services to partners so that they can fully focus on improving & selling their products.Source: DOCU's SEC FilingsDocuSign achieved a record $529 million in subscription revenue in Q3. However, the YoY growth rates have been normalizing back to pre-Covid levels.Source: DOCU's SEC FilingsBillings are the amount invoiced to customers in the quarter. It includes both current and future quarter revenue since customers usually pre-pay for annual contracts. Hence, this metric will give a partial glimpse into future quarters' performance. Due to the variety of contractual terms and customer usage patterns, there's bound to be quarterly fluctuations, thus management always advises to view it from a trailing twelve months basis.However, by just looking at Q3'22 billing YoY growth, it seems to be one of the negative factors affecting investors' confidence. Q3'21 is the period where companies are starting to resume normal operations digitally, as lockdowns begin to loosen after the initial shock from COVID. (This phenomenon was also reflected in Airbnb's (NASDAQ:ABNB) Q3'20 booking numbers as shown in our previous article.) Thus, it created huge demands for e-signatures, even if companies might not know the full extent of use cases yet.For Q3'22 to show such a large deceleration in growth, there can be two reasons: 1) Companies bought excessive capacity in their initial buy just to prepare for any downturns in events, and have not consumed all. 2) Companies bought small capacity, and have already renewed with larger contracts in the subsequent quarters. Either reason reflected a slowdown in consumption patterns.Additionally, there was a slight sales execution issue causing this as mentioned by CEO Daniel Springer in the earnings call. From the onset of COVID, they were very focused on rapidly capturing the demand up till now. This shifted their focus away from educating customers on the extensive use cases, which they used to do as part of their \"land & expand\" strategy.We stopped doing that as people just need more and more volume for their existing use cases, right? And so I think that's the gap in our execution. And as Cynthia described, a huge portion of our field has joined since pandemic began because we've been growing at such a rate. And we haven't done the job we need to do at enabling them at the traditional DocuSign sort of land and expand processes.Source: Winter 2021 Investor PresentationDespite the slowdown in revenue & billings growth, Net Dollar Retention (\"NDR\") rates are still looking healthy. It should be noted that NDR rates were still being driven by the expansion of e-signature use cases, as the application of Agreement Cloud is still in the early stages (more on it below).Management GuidanceSource: Earnings CallsManagement had initially expected their COVID demand to die down from the start of Q1, thus guiding full-year billings growth of only 31% during Q4'21. Due to the unexpected growth for the first 2 quarters, the management optimistically adjusted their guidance. The slowdown in growth then happened in Q3, missing the guidance, which might have surprised them. As a result, they lowered their Q4 guidance. These moves seldom go well with investors, sending the stock down 40%.COVID Stock?A mention of \"COVID Stocks\" brings to mind Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) and DocuSign. Both businesses enable remote working through video conferencing and e-signature respectively. A look at Zoom's revenue growth clearly showed how COVID impacted their business.Source: Zoom's SEC FilingsDespite showing similar growth profiles, it would be unfair to project such a massive growth deceleration for DocuSign. As users start returning to offices, it's more likely for them to switch back to in-person meetings than returning to manual mailing processes to close agreements. In-person meetings still have intangible benefits that video conferencing can't provide. On the other hand, e-signatures are simply cheaper, faster, and more accessible, providing a clear Return On Investment (\"ROI\") for users that have switched.Agreement Cloud ProgressE-signature has become part of the larger Agreement Cloud offering from DocuSign. The remaining components such as Contract Lifecycle Management (\"CLM\") require a more extensive rollout as enterprise software needs to be integrated, lengthening the whole sales cycle to about 3-4 quarters. Thus, the initial sales traction gained from pre-COVID was put to an abrupt stop when customers chose to focus on the more mission-critical e-signature. The immediate ROI and ease of implementation digitally also played a part.As per CEO Springer during Q1'22 earnings call:\"Now we see those starting to come back. And so we see the pipeline starting to build, as we did actually starting in Q4 start more aggressively there. So those are demonstrably coming back, and I think those will be larger deal sizes that we will see.Interest in Agreement Cloud is starting to pick up again as businesses adapt to the new way of working. And basing it on the estimated sales cycle, the growth should be back on track. Agreement cloud has the potential to put DocuSign above the other e-signature providers, albeit only showing insignificant revenue for now. Readers do have to note that this is still considered a greenfield opportunity for the company, and it will be up to the management to effectively market its value proposition.Customers' ReviewsThe company interviewed users from Unilever (LON:ULVR)(NYSE:UL) and Snowflake (NASDAQ:SNOW) during their 2021 Analyst Day.One of the highlights was that Unilever had already been using SpringCM and Seal software when they were still independent companies. Both were then acquired by DocuSign as part of Agreement Cloud products. According to Lim Wei Ling, Unilever's Global Supply Chain General Counsel:And so primary driver was to find ways to give time back to our colleagues, give time back to our business partners, so that they can do even more value-add work and also to create capabilities that will generate data-driven insights for them that they can take action on. And so it was with this in mind that we wanted to take advantage of the contract automation, the contract building capabilities and the contract analytics capabilities in the Agreement Cloud.This validates the whole Agreement Cloud concept, showing that it's not just a bold vision from the management team.In addition, Snowflake chose to use DocuSign over other providers as they offer a future roadmap. This fits into the company's \"land & expand\" strategy - from introducing e-signatures to gradually utilizing the different components of the whole Agreement cloud - allowing users to achieve more ROI as they explore more of the use cases.Looking at the reviews from G2.com&Gartner, DocuSign's e-signature is at a premium pricing above the rest. Despite that, it's still the undisputed leader in the e-signature market. The strength of its brand, its integration to many enterprise software, and potential extensions to other value-adding software certainly justify the costs.Source: Winter 2021 Investor PresentationValuationSimilar to our Q2'22 article, we will use a 5 year Discounted Cash Flow (\"DCF\") valuation method to determine a fair value for DocuSign, and bring it back to its present value.We have shared how we derived the variables such as Discount Rate, Dilution, and Exit Price Multiple. The variables and the assumptions made are the same, except for the drop in year 1 revenue growth rates. Using the recent quarter growth rate, we brought down the revenue growth from 50% to 40% to give a more conservative estimate.Source: Author's estimates with DOCU's SEC FilingsWe derived an intrinsic per-share value of $219. As of 28th Dec'21 closing price at $152, there's an implied upside of at least 40%.Using the same assumptions (except year 1 growth rate) and working backward from the closing price of $152, the market is expecting a drastic growth slowdown and year 5 revenue of USD 5.7 billion.Source: Author's estimates with DOCU's SEC FilingsThe management indicated during their Analyst Dayt hat the near-term goal of USD 5 billion will still be mainly from e-signatures. This means that at current prices, the market is not pricing in any growth from the Agreement Cloud in the next 5 years.Insider BuyingDespite the Q3'22 results which caused the share price to drop 40%, something that caught our attention is that CEO Springer bought $5 million worth of DOCU's shares after the drop.Source: SEC Form 4 7th Dec & 8th DecWhen asked about his buying decision during a UBS investor conference on 8th Dec, he mentioned:I'm very confident. I'm making a good investment. And as I've said openly, if the stock doesn't react over the coming days, weeks, months and doesn't get sort of more in line with where I think it should be, I'll continue to be a buyer.As an insider with full knowledge of the pipelines and daily operations, this move displayed huge confidence in DocuSign's prospects.ClosingThe pandemic had made e-signature a mission-critical software for businesses to operate in today's \"Anywhere Economy\". DocuSign is positioning itself by being more than that, as e-signatures get commoditized. By tapping on its industry-leading brand presence, the company is leading customers into its larger value-adding Agreement Cloud.Current prices seemed to only factor in the growth of e-signature. Even though the whole Agreement Cloud segment is still small, there are already customers utilizing specific products. As DocuSign gradually gets embedded into customers' workflows with more products, its software will become stickier. With increasing sales traction, the Agreement Cloud has the potential to become a game-changer and key revenue contribution for DocuSign in the near future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOCU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3228,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["ADC"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/692539311"}
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