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2021-12-31

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The Stock Market Had a Wonderful Year. It Might Have Been the Only One<blockquote>股市度过了美好的一年。这可能是唯一的一个</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":692871391,"tweetId":"692871391","gmtCreate":1640925587811,"gmtModify":1640925588120,"author":{"id":3581496657430027,"idStr":"3581496657430027","authorId":3581496657430027,"authorIdStr":"3581496657430027","name":"WhenLambo69","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7eb252b1bc52ab7567a6f6dbc62f92e","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":28,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Pls like my post</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Pls like my post</body></html>","text":"Pls like my post","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692871391","repostId":1166070645,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166070645","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640922580,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166070645?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-31 11:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Had a Wonderful Year. It Might Have Been the Only One<blockquote>股市度过了美好的一年。这可能是唯一的一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166070645","media":"Barrons","summary":"Misery may love company, but this is getting ridiculous.If all you had to ponder were the numbers, y","content":"<html><head></head><body>Misery may love company, but this is getting ridiculous.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>痛苦可能喜欢陪伴，但这越来越荒谬了。</body></html></blockquote>If all you had to ponder were the numbers, you would assume that everyone would have fond memories of 2021. Jobs were plentiful. Economic growth was the strongest it had been in decades, and stock returns were out of this world. It’s the kind of data that would have been celebrated just a few years ago.<blockquote>如果你所要考虑的只是数字，你会认为每个人都会对2021年有美好的回忆。工作机会很多。经济增长是几十年来最强劲的，股票回报也是惊人的。这种数据在几年前还值得庆祝。</blockquote>Despite the New Year, Americans aren’t celebrating—they’re mostly miserable. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 13%, to 70.6, in 2021, the lowest end-of year reading since 2008, when the world was in the throes of the global financial crisis. Unlike that year, when the S&amp;P 500 index dropped 38%, the index is up by more than 27%. That’s the largest stock market gain in a year when sentiment suffered a double-digit drop in at least 25 years. It’s the kind of agony expected from a bunch of teenagers at a Cure concert, but it’s hard to blame people for their gloom.<blockquote>尽管是新年，美国人并没有庆祝——他们大多很痛苦。2021年，密歇根大学消费者信心指数下降13%，至70.6，这是自2008年以来的最低年终读数，当时世界正处于全球金融危机的阵痛之中。与当年标普500指数下跌38%不同，该指数上涨了27%以上。这是一年来股市最大涨幅，当时市场情绪至少25年来出现两位数跌幅。这是一群青少年在治愈音乐会上所期待的那种痛苦，但很难责怪人们的阴郁。</blockquote>Covid-19 was supposed to be long gone by this point, or at least that’s what we’d hoped as 2021 got under way. But a combination of vaccine reluctance, virus mutations, and other factors has meant that not only is the virus still with us, but also that the U.S. is ending the year with a record number of cases—a seven-day average of 277,741, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data—and little sign that the Omicron spike will let up anytime soon. That the disease appears to have become less deadly as it has mutated is easy to overlook, though it shouldn’t be.<blockquote>此时，新冠肺炎应该早已不复存在，或者至少这是我们在2021年到来时所希望的。但不愿接种疫苗、病毒突变和其他因素的结合意味着，不仅病毒仍然存在，而且美国在年底的病例数创下纪录——7天平均病例数为277,741例。根据疾病控制与预防中心的数据，几乎没有迹象表明奥密克戎的激增会很快减弱。这种疾病似乎因为变异而变得不那么致命，这很容易被忽视，尽管它不应该被忽视。</blockquote>“The outlook for Omicron remains the same, as cases continue to break records globally, but the lack of [a] sharp increase in hospitalizations is allowing stocks to rally into year end,” writes the Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye.<blockquote>Sevens Report的Tom Essaye写道：“随着全球病例继续打破记录，奥密克戎的前景保持不变，但住院人数没有急剧增加，这使得股市在年底前反弹。”</blockquote>Surging inflation has also been weighing on Americans. The Federal Reserve, after all, promised that rising prices would be “transitory,” and yet here we are at the end of the year with the consumer price index climbing at its fastest annual rate since 1982, and even Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said it’s time to retire the word.<blockquote>通胀飙升也给美国人带来了压力。毕竟，美联储承诺物价上涨将是“暂时的”，但今年年底，消费者价格指数以1982年以来最快的年增长率攀升，甚至美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也表示是时候让这个词退休了。</blockquote>In the latest University of Michigan report, a fourth of respondents cited a hit to their living standards due to inflation. “The hope of a brief and fleeting spurt in prices has been dashed,” writes Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities. “Inflation pressures have broadened behind the handful of pandemic reopening categories and intensified.”<blockquote>在密歇根大学的最新报告中，四分之一的受访者表示，通货膨胀对他们的生活水平造成了打击。阿默斯特皮尔庞特证券公司首席经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利写道：“价格短暂飙升的希望已经破灭。”“少数大流行重新开放类别背后的通胀压力已经扩大并加剧。”</blockquote>Still, it’s rare to see such a disconnect between sentiment and the stock market. Since 1997, there have been 12 years of declining sentiment, with the S&amp;P 500 finishing higher during seven of them. The decline in confidence during those years, however, was usually relatively small. The only year previous to 2020 when confidence suffered a double-digit decline and the market rose was in 2007, when a recession had already started, but the S&amp;P 500 finished up 3%. Never has sentiment suffered double-digit declines for two years in a row only to see the S&amp;P 500 rise by double digits in both years.<blockquote>尽管如此，情绪与股市之间如此脱节的情况还是很少见。自1997年以来，市场情绪已连续12年下降，其中7年标普500收高。然而，在那些年里，信心的下降通常相对较小。2020年之前唯一一次信心出现两位数下降而市场上涨是在2007年，当时经济衰退已经开始，但标普500最终上涨了3%。情绪从未连续两年出现两位数下降，但标普500却在这两年都出现两位数上升。</blockquote>That suggests that perhaps there’s a growing divide between what respondents say and what they do. Retail sales increased by 18.2% in November, year over year, while the most recent quits data from the Department of Labor was 2.8%, down from a record 3%, but still elevated. Even inflation might not be the problem that it appears to be, observes Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Google searches for words like “discount,” “cheap,” and “coupon” are declining, not rising. “[As] much as U.S. consumers may think about inflation (and numerous surveys show they clearly do), they are not yet responding to higher prices by seeking out better deals,” he writes. “This is good news for U.S. corporate earnings power, especially among larger companies that also enjoy economies of scale and scope.”<blockquote>这表明，受访者的言行之间可能存在越来越大的差距。11月份零售额同比增长18.2%，而劳工部最新的戒烟数据为2.8%，低于创纪录的3%，但仍处于高位。DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)观察到，即使是通货膨胀也可能不是表面上的问题。谷歌对“折扣”、“便宜”和“优惠券”等词的搜索量正在下降，而不是上升。他写道：“尽管美国消费者可能会考虑通货膨胀（大量调查显示他们显然会这样做），但他们尚未通过寻求更好的交易来应对更高的价格。”“这对美国企业的盈利能力来说是个好消息，尤其是在同样享有规模经济和范围经济的大型企业中。”</blockquote>Maybe so, but investors aren’t feeling very good about the stock market either, despite—or because of—three consecutive years of double-digit gains. The latest American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey shows that the percentage of bulls remained below 45% for a fifth straight week, despite the S&amp;P 500 trading above its rising 50-day moving average, observes Sundial Capital Research’s Jason Goepfert. When that has happened in the past, the S&amp;P 500 has gone on to average a 4.6% gain over the next three months.<blockquote>也许是这样，但投资者对股市的感觉也不是很好，尽管——或者因为——连续三年两位数的上涨。Sundial Capital Research的Jason Goepfert表示，最新的美国个人投资者协会情绪调查显示，尽管标普500交易价格高于不断上涨的50日移动平均线，但多头比例连续第五周保持在45%以下。过去发生过这种情况时，标普500在未来三个月内平均上涨4.6%。</blockquote>But just as consumers’ pessimism isn’t necessarily reflected in their actions, investors seem to be buying stocks despite a gloomy outlook—and that should be good news for the market. “The current low optimism, given a mostly healthy market environment, especially during this time of year, suggests higher prices,” he writes.<blockquote>但正如消费者的悲观情绪不一定反映在他们的行动中一样，尽管前景黯淡，投资者似乎仍在购买股票——这对市场来说应该是个好消息。他写道：“鉴于市场环境基本健康，尤其是在每年的这个时候，目前的低乐观情绪表明价格上涨。”</blockquote>Just don’t expect it to be easy.<blockquote>只是不要指望这会很容易。</blockquote>The Fed, after all, is cutting back its bond purchases, and the federal-fund futures market is pricing in a greater than 50% chance of a rate hike at the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. That’s likely to inject a dose of volatility into the market. But with interest rates likely to remain below both the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth, stocks should still be the place to be, writes Jefferies strategist Sean Darby, as long as the cost of credit relative to U.S. Treasuries doesn’t get too expensive.<blockquote>毕竟，美联储正在削减债券购买，联邦基金期货市场预计联邦公开市场委员会3月份会议上加息的可能性超过50%。这可能会给市场注入一定的波动性。但杰富瑞(Jefferies)策略师肖恩·达比(Sean Darby)写道，由于利率可能仍低于通胀率和经济增长率，只要相对于美国国债的信贷成本不会下降，股市仍然应该是首选。太贵了。</blockquote>“[Nominal] GDP will still be above government bond yields, ensuring equities outperform their peers, but a watchful eye on credit spreads will be the litmus test for owning the more challenging business models,” he explains.<blockquote>“[名义]GDP仍将高于政府债券收益率，确保股市表现优于同行，但密切关注信用利差将是拥有更具挑战性的商业模式的试金石，”他解释道。</blockquote>And if the market doesn’t keep going up? At least investors will have something to be miserable about.<blockquote>如果市场不继续上涨怎么办？至少投资者会有一些痛苦的事情。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Had a Wonderful Year. It Might Have Been the Only One<blockquote>股市度过了美好的一年。这可能是唯一的一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Had a Wonderful Year. It Might Have Been the Only One<blockquote>股市度过了美好的一年。这可能是唯一的一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-31 11:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Misery may love company, but this is getting ridiculous.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>痛苦可能喜欢陪伴，但这越来越荒谬了。</body></html></blockquote>If all you had to ponder were the numbers, you would assume that everyone would have fond memories of 2021. Jobs were plentiful. Economic growth was the strongest it had been in decades, and stock returns were out of this world. It’s the kind of data that would have been celebrated just a few years ago.<blockquote>如果你所要考虑的只是数字，你会认为每个人都会对2021年有美好的回忆。工作机会很多。经济增长是几十年来最强劲的，股票回报也是惊人的。这种数据在几年前还值得庆祝。</blockquote>Despite the New Year, Americans aren’t celebrating—they’re mostly miserable. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 13%, to 70.6, in 2021, the lowest end-of year reading since 2008, when the world was in the throes of the global financial crisis. Unlike that year, when the S&amp;P 500 index dropped 38%, the index is up by more than 27%. That’s the largest stock market gain in a year when sentiment suffered a double-digit drop in at least 25 years. It’s the kind of agony expected from a bunch of teenagers at a Cure concert, but it’s hard to blame people for their gloom.<blockquote>尽管是新年，美国人并没有庆祝——他们大多很痛苦。2021年，密歇根大学消费者信心指数下降13%，至70.6，这是自2008年以来的最低年终读数，当时世界正处于全球金融危机的阵痛之中。与当年标普500指数下跌38%不同，该指数上涨了27%以上。这是一年来股市最大涨幅，当时市场情绪至少25年来出现两位数跌幅。这是一群青少年在治愈音乐会上所期待的那种痛苦，但很难责怪人们的阴郁。</blockquote>Covid-19 was supposed to be long gone by this point, or at least that’s what we’d hoped as 2021 got under way. But a combination of vaccine reluctance, virus mutations, and other factors has meant that not only is the virus still with us, but also that the U.S. is ending the year with a record number of cases—a seven-day average of 277,741, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data—and little sign that the Omicron spike will let up anytime soon. That the disease appears to have become less deadly as it has mutated is easy to overlook, though it shouldn’t be.<blockquote>此时，新冠肺炎应该早已不复存在，或者至少这是我们在2021年到来时所希望的。但不愿接种疫苗、病毒突变和其他因素的结合意味着，不仅病毒仍然存在，而且美国在年底的病例数创下纪录——7天平均病例数为277,741例。根据疾病控制与预防中心的数据，几乎没有迹象表明奥密克戎的激增会很快减弱。这种疾病似乎因为变异而变得不那么致命，这很容易被忽视，尽管它不应该被忽视。</blockquote>“The outlook for Omicron remains the same, as cases continue to break records globally, but the lack of [a] sharp increase in hospitalizations is allowing stocks to rally into year end,” writes the Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye.<blockquote>Sevens Report的Tom Essaye写道：“随着全球病例继续打破记录，奥密克戎的前景保持不变，但住院人数没有急剧增加，这使得股市在年底前反弹。”</blockquote>Surging inflation has also been weighing on Americans. The Federal Reserve, after all, promised that rising prices would be “transitory,” and yet here we are at the end of the year with the consumer price index climbing at its fastest annual rate since 1982, and even Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said it’s time to retire the word.<blockquote>通胀飙升也给美国人带来了压力。毕竟，美联储承诺物价上涨将是“暂时的”，但今年年底，消费者价格指数以1982年以来最快的年增长率攀升，甚至美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也表示是时候让这个词退休了。</blockquote>In the latest University of Michigan report, a fourth of respondents cited a hit to their living standards due to inflation. “The hope of a brief and fleeting spurt in prices has been dashed,” writes Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities. “Inflation pressures have broadened behind the handful of pandemic reopening categories and intensified.”<blockquote>在密歇根大学的最新报告中，四分之一的受访者表示，通货膨胀对他们的生活水平造成了打击。阿默斯特皮尔庞特证券公司首席经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利写道：“价格短暂飙升的希望已经破灭。”“少数大流行重新开放类别背后的通胀压力已经扩大并加剧。”</blockquote>Still, it’s rare to see such a disconnect between sentiment and the stock market. Since 1997, there have been 12 years of declining sentiment, with the S&amp;P 500 finishing higher during seven of them. The decline in confidence during those years, however, was usually relatively small. The only year previous to 2020 when confidence suffered a double-digit decline and the market rose was in 2007, when a recession had already started, but the S&amp;P 500 finished up 3%. Never has sentiment suffered double-digit declines for two years in a row only to see the S&amp;P 500 rise by double digits in both years.<blockquote>尽管如此，情绪与股市之间如此脱节的情况还是很少见。自1997年以来，市场情绪已连续12年下降，其中7年标普500收高。然而，在那些年里，信心的下降通常相对较小。2020年之前唯一一次信心出现两位数下降而市场上涨是在2007年，当时经济衰退已经开始，但标普500最终上涨了3%。情绪从未连续两年出现两位数下降，但标普500却在这两年都出现两位数上升。</blockquote>That suggests that perhaps there’s a growing divide between what respondents say and what they do. Retail sales increased by 18.2% in November, year over year, while the most recent quits data from the Department of Labor was 2.8%, down from a record 3%, but still elevated. Even inflation might not be the problem that it appears to be, observes Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Google searches for words like “discount,” “cheap,” and “coupon” are declining, not rising. “[As] much as U.S. consumers may think about inflation (and numerous surveys show they clearly do), they are not yet responding to higher prices by seeking out better deals,” he writes. “This is good news for U.S. corporate earnings power, especially among larger companies that also enjoy economies of scale and scope.”<blockquote>这表明，受访者的言行之间可能存在越来越大的差距。11月份零售额同比增长18.2%，而劳工部最新的戒烟数据为2.8%，低于创纪录的3%，但仍处于高位。DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)观察到，即使是通货膨胀也可能不是表面上的问题。谷歌对“折扣”、“便宜”和“优惠券”等词的搜索量正在下降，而不是上升。他写道：“尽管美国消费者可能会考虑通货膨胀（大量调查显示他们显然会这样做），但他们尚未通过寻求更好的交易来应对更高的价格。”“这对美国企业的盈利能力来说是个好消息，尤其是在同样享有规模经济和范围经济的大型企业中。”</blockquote>Maybe so, but investors aren’t feeling very good about the stock market either, despite—or because of—three consecutive years of double-digit gains. The latest American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey shows that the percentage of bulls remained below 45% for a fifth straight week, despite the S&amp;P 500 trading above its rising 50-day moving average, observes Sundial Capital Research’s Jason Goepfert. When that has happened in the past, the S&amp;P 500 has gone on to average a 4.6% gain over the next three months.<blockquote>也许是这样，但投资者对股市的感觉也不是很好，尽管——或者因为——连续三年两位数的上涨。Sundial Capital Research的Jason Goepfert表示，最新的美国个人投资者协会情绪调查显示，尽管标普500交易价格高于不断上涨的50日移动平均线，但多头比例连续第五周保持在45%以下。过去发生过这种情况时，标普500在未来三个月内平均上涨4.6%。</blockquote>But just as consumers’ pessimism isn’t necessarily reflected in their actions, investors seem to be buying stocks despite a gloomy outlook—and that should be good news for the market. “The current low optimism, given a mostly healthy market environment, especially during this time of year, suggests higher prices,” he writes.<blockquote>但正如消费者的悲观情绪不一定反映在他们的行动中一样，尽管前景黯淡，投资者似乎仍在购买股票——这对市场来说应该是个好消息。他写道：“鉴于市场环境基本健康，尤其是在每年的这个时候，目前的低乐观情绪表明价格上涨。”</blockquote>Just don’t expect it to be easy.<blockquote>只是不要指望这会很容易。</blockquote>The Fed, after all, is cutting back its bond purchases, and the federal-fund futures market is pricing in a greater than 50% chance of a rate hike at the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. That’s likely to inject a dose of volatility into the market. But with interest rates likely to remain below both the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth, stocks should still be the place to be, writes Jefferies strategist Sean Darby, as long as the cost of credit relative to U.S. Treasuries doesn’t get too expensive.<blockquote>毕竟，美联储正在削减债券购买，联邦基金期货市场预计联邦公开市场委员会3月份会议上加息的可能性超过50%。这可能会给市场注入一定的波动性。但杰富瑞(Jefferies)策略师肖恩·达比(Sean Darby)写道，由于利率可能仍低于通胀率和经济增长率，只要相对于美国国债的信贷成本不会下降，股市仍然应该是首选。太贵了。</blockquote>“[Nominal] GDP will still be above government bond yields, ensuring equities outperform their peers, but a watchful eye on credit spreads will be the litmus test for owning the more challenging business models,” he explains.<blockquote>“[名义]GDP仍将高于政府债券收益率，确保股市表现优于同行，但密切关注信用利差将是拥有更具挑战性的商业模式的试金石，”他解释道。</blockquote>And if the market doesn’t keep going up? At least investors will have something to be miserable about.<blockquote>如果市场不继续上涨怎么办？至少投资者会有一些痛苦的事情。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-2021-51640910494?mod=newsviewer_click\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-2021-51640910494?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1166070645","content_text":"Misery may love company, but this is getting ridiculous.If all you had to ponder were the numbers, you would assume that everyone would have fond memories of 2021. Jobs were plentiful. Economic growth was the strongest it had been in decades, and stock returns were out of this world. It’s the kind of data that would have been celebrated just a few years ago.Despite the New Year, Americans aren’t celebrating—they’re mostly miserable. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 13%, to 70.6, in 2021, the lowest end-of year reading since 2008, when the world was in the throes of the global financial crisis. Unlike that year, when the S&P 500 index dropped 38%, the index is up by more than 27%. That’s the largest stock market gain in a year when sentiment suffered a double-digit drop in at least 25 years. It’s the kind of agony expected from a bunch of teenagers at a Cure concert, but it’s hard to blame people for their gloom.Covid-19 was supposed to be long gone by this point, or at least that’s what we’d hoped as 2021 got under way. But a combination of vaccine reluctance, virus mutations, and other factors has meant that not only is the virus still with us, but also that the U.S. is ending the year with a record number of cases—a seven-day average of 277,741, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data—and little sign that the Omicron spike will let up anytime soon. That the disease appears to have become less deadly as it has mutated is easy to overlook, though it shouldn’t be.“The outlook for Omicron remains the same, as cases continue to break records globally, but the lack of [a] sharp increase in hospitalizations is allowing stocks to rally into year end,” writes the Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye.Surging inflation has also been weighing on Americans. The Federal Reserve, after all, promised that rising prices would be “transitory,” and yet here we are at the end of the year with the consumer price index climbing at its fastest annual rate since 1982, and even Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said it’s time to retire the word.In the latest University of Michigan report, a fourth of respondents cited a hit to their living standards due to inflation. “The hope of a brief and fleeting spurt in prices has been dashed,” writes Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities. “Inflation pressures have broadened behind the handful of pandemic reopening categories and intensified.”Still, it’s rare to see such a disconnect between sentiment and the stock market. Since 1997, there have been 12 years of declining sentiment, with the S&P 500 finishing higher during seven of them. The decline in confidence during those years, however, was usually relatively small. The only year previous to 2020 when confidence suffered a double-digit decline and the market rose was in 2007, when a recession had already started, but the S&P 500 finished up 3%. Never has sentiment suffered double-digit declines for two years in a row only to see the S&P 500 rise by double digits in both years.That suggests that perhaps there’s a growing divide between what respondents say and what they do. Retail sales increased by 18.2% in November, year over year, while the most recent quits data from the Department of Labor was 2.8%, down from a record 3%, but still elevated. Even inflation might not be the problem that it appears to be, observes Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Google searches for words like “discount,” “cheap,” and “coupon” are declining, not rising. “[As] much as U.S. consumers may think about inflation (and numerous surveys show they clearly do), they are not yet responding to higher prices by seeking out better deals,” he writes. “This is good news for U.S. corporate earnings power, especially among larger companies that also enjoy economies of scale and scope.”Maybe so, but investors aren’t feeling very good about the stock market either, despite—or because of—three consecutive years of double-digit gains. The latest American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey shows that the percentage of bulls remained below 45% for a fifth straight week, despite the S&P 500 trading above its rising 50-day moving average, observes Sundial Capital Research’s Jason Goepfert. When that has happened in the past, the S&P 500 has gone on to average a 4.6% gain over the next three months.But just as consumers’ pessimism isn’t necessarily reflected in their actions, investors seem to be buying stocks despite a gloomy outlook—and that should be good news for the market. “The current low optimism, given a mostly healthy market environment, especially during this time of year, suggests higher prices,” he writes.Just don’t expect it to be easy.The Fed, after all, is cutting back its bond purchases, and the federal-fund futures market is pricing in a greater than 50% chance of a rate hike at the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. That’s likely to inject a dose of volatility into the market. But with interest rates likely to remain below both the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth, stocks should still be the place to be, writes Jefferies strategist Sean Darby, as long as the cost of credit relative to U.S. Treasuries doesn’t get too expensive.“[Nominal] GDP will still be above government bond yields, ensuring equities outperform their peers, but a watchful eye on credit spreads will be the litmus test for owning the more challenging business models,” he explains.And if the market doesn’t keep going up? At least investors will have something to be miserable about.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2538,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/692871391"}