Mojo Jojo
2021-12-20
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Sea Stock: Down 43% From Its High, is a Buy Now?<blockquote>Sea股票：较高点下跌43%，现在买入吗？</blockquote>
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Since its recent all-time high (ATH) in October, its price has dropped by a dramatic 43%. Many reasons have been presented on why the stock has fallen. We exhort investors not to read too much into them. We believe nothing material has changed from its fundamental thesis. The stock has had a remarkable run in 2021 relative to its gaming peers or e-tailer peers. Therefore, profit-taking of this extent should not be surprising as fear struck growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）股票是我们最相信的成长型股票之一，在上个月遭受了严重打击。自 10 月份创下历史新高 (ATH) 以来，其价格已大幅下跌 43%。关于该股下跌的原因有很多。我们建议投资者不要过多地解读它们。我们认为它的基本论点没有任何实质性的改变。相对于游戏同行或电子零售商同行，该股在 2021 年表现出色。因此，当恐惧袭击成长型股票时，这种程度的获利了结并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the recent significant correction in growth stocks across the market has also hit SE stock hard. But, we are not concerned. Significant volatility will always be a factor influencing the performance of growth stocks like SE in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，近期全市场成长股的大幅回调也对SE股造成了沉重打击。但是，我们并不担心。短期内，显著的波动性始终是影响SE等成长股表现的一个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, we observed that the consensus target price on SE stock had been revised upwards since its FQ3 report card. Moreover, the gap between its price target and its current stock price has been greater than its last significant correction in April/May.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，我们观察到，自第三季度报告以来，SE 股票的一致目标价已被上调。此外，其目标价与其当前股价之间的差距已经大于其上一次在4月/5月的大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> Our internal DCF valuation model also points to a stock that is now significantly undervalued. Thanks to the market's myopia, we have been presented with another fantastic opportunity since April/May to add SE stock with great fervor again.</p><p><blockquote>我们的内部 DCF 估值模型还指出了一只目前被严重低估的股票。由于市场的短视，自4月/5月以来，我们又迎来了一个绝佳的机会，再次以极大的热情增持SE股票。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss why we think investors should not miss this incredible opportunity to add exposure to an outstanding growth stock.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论为什么我们认为投资者不应该错过这个难以置信的机会来增加对优秀成长型股票的投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SE Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SE 股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c191d1f0f6a10e392845cdbda1264aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock YTD performance (as of 17 December'21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票年初至今表现（截至21年12月17日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a result of the significant correction recently, SE stock's YTD return has dropped to 6.9%, thus underperforming the market. Notably, its YTD gain was as high as 80% in October/early November. Despite that, the stock is still outperforming its e-tailer and gaming peers, as shown above.</p><p><blockquote>由于最近的大幅调整，SE股票的年初至今回报率已降至6.9%，因此跑输大盘。值得注意的是，其年初至今的涨幅在10月/11月初高达80%。尽管如此，如上图所示，该股的表现仍然优于电子零售商和游戏同行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sea Stock Estimates Have Consistently Been Revised Upwards</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Sea 股票预测一直被上调</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8555128e2a30e924dd6c2dd162a27eea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sea Limited revised revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited 修订后的收入平均共识估计。数据来源：标普资本智商、Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly observe that the company's revenue consensus estimates for FY21-23 have consistently been revised upwards over the last five months. These revisions lend credence to the robust growth prospects of the company over the next two years. Notably, Sea Limited's revenue is estimated to increase at a phenomenal CAGR of 42.8% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以很快观察到，该公司对 21-23 财年的收入共识预期在过去五个月中一直被上调。这些修订为公司未来两年强劲的增长前景提供了可信度。值得注意的是，Sea Limited 的收入预计将通过2023财年以 42.8% 的惊人复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> There were concerns over the growth rates of its Garena gaming arm in its FQ3 report card.We also explained in our previous article that Sea Limited has clearly explained that investors should expect normalization in Garena's growth after two spectacular years. However, its monetization capability continues to dazzle. Therefore, we are confident that Garena can continue its robust monetization strategies moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度成绩单中对 Garena 游戏部门的增长率表示担忧。我们还在之前的文章中解释说，Sea Limited 已明确解释说，投资者应该期待 Garena 在经历了辉煌的两年后增长恢复正常。然而，其变现能力继续令人眼花缭乱。因此，我们相信 Garena 能够继续其稳健的货币化战略。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, data from Sensor Tower's recent gaming statistics continue to point to sturdy performance from its Free Fire game. It continues to be ranked among the top ten mobile games in terms of overall gaming revenue in November. Moreover, it's also ranked#2 in overall downloadsacross both the App Store and Google Play. Notably, it's also among eight games globally whose annual revenue crossed $1B as of 14 December. Therefore, we think the sentiments and chatter about Free Fire's \"one-shot wonder\" have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Sensor Tower最近的游戏统计数据继续表明其Free Fire游戏的强劲表现。就11月游戏整体收入而言，它继续位居移动游戏前十。此外，它在App Store和Google Play的总下载量中也排名第二。值得注意的是，截至12月14日，它也是全球八款年收入超过10亿美元的游戏之一。因此，我们认为关于Free Fire“一次性奇迹”的情绪和喋喋不休被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51247ba1efd7fa6d333b482446e94c9a\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Global games market forecast. Source: Google, Newzoo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球游戏市场预测。资料来源：谷歌、Newzoo</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, the global gaming market is estimated to experience a slight decline to $175.8B after last year's massive 23% growth to $177.8B. However, given Garena's impressive growth in FY21 despite the decline in the global market, we believe it validates its business model and prospects. Notably, the gaming market is expected to reverse its decline moving forward. Therefore, Garena's leadership in mobile gaming could continue to propel its growth underpinned by the recovery in the global gaming market.</p><p><blockquote>此外，全球博彩市场在去年大幅增长 23% 至 177.8B 美元后，预计将略有下降至 175.8B 美元。然而，鉴于尽管全球市场下滑，Garena 在 2021 财年仍实现了令人印象深刻的增长，我们相信这验证了其商业模式和前景。值得注意的是，博彩市场有望在未来扭转颓势。因此，在全球游戏市场复苏的推动下，Garena 在移动游戏领域的领导地位可能会继续推动其增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a0612da9a19f7b7198d43213b4f4470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Shopee adjusted EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopee 调整了每个订单的 EBITDA。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But, some investors may have been spooked by Shopee's (Sea Limited's e-commerce arm) continued expansion into new geographical markets. Notably, Shopee continues to report adjusted EBITDA loss per order, as shown above. Therefore, some investors might have been concerned about whether the company's plate is getting too much to handle. Over the last three months, the company has entered into new markets such as India, France, Spain, and Poland. They are in addition to its battle with MercadoLibre (MELI) in Latin America, particularly Brazil. As a result, there are concerns on whether Sea Limited could continue its adroit execution in these markets while still making losses. We believe such concerns are valid. However, Sea Limited has shown its tremendous capability in penetrating the most important markets where the incumbents have strong leadership. It includes Lazada (BABA) in Southeast Asia, MercadoLibre in Brazil, and Tokopedia in Indonesia. Shopee was never the first-mover. But, it took advantage as the \"late-comer\" as it sought to compete with the incumbents. It's important to note that Sea Limited is not averse to competition. It has thrived against the incumbents and has made the e-commerce space in these geographical regions much more competitive.</p><p><blockquote>但是，一些投资者可能对 Shopee（Sea Limited 的电子商务部门）向新地理市场的持续扩张感到害怕。值得注意的是，Shopee 继续报告每个订单的调整后 EBITDA 损失，如上所示。因此，一些投资者可能担心该公司的盘子是否有太多难以处理。在过去的三个月里，该公司进入了印度、法国、西班牙和波兰等新市场。此外，它还在拉丁美洲，特别是巴西与自由市场（MELI）的斗争。因此，人们担心 Sea Limited 能否在这些市场继续其娴熟的执行，同时仍在亏损。我们认为这种担忧是合理的。然而，Sea Limited 在渗透现有企业拥有强大领导地位的最重要市场方面表现出了巨大的能力。它包括东南亚的Lazada（BABA）、巴西的MercadoLibre和印度尼西亚的Tokopedia。Shopee从来都不是先行者。但是，它利用了“后来者”的优势，试图与现任者竞争。值得注意的是，Sea Limited并不反对竞争。它与现有企业相比蓬勃发展，并使这些地理区域的电子商务领域更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80938433e2d55307ca40000eeea2a26f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sea Limited revised adjusted EPS mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited 修订调整后每股收益平均共识估计。数据来源：标普资本智商、Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the road towards profitability might be stretched further due to its e-commerce expansion. Readers can quickly glance over the chart above, where its adjusted EPS estimates have been revised downwards through FY23 over the last five months. However, we believe that if you are a long-term investor with a five-year horizon at least, it's not a cause for concern. Earlier investors in Sea Limited can keenly recall the company's massive adjusted EBITDA per order losses, as seen in the previous chart. Shopee has scaled tremendously over the last five years and has improved its operating leverage further. But, it's important to note that it takes time to scale up. Therefore, earlier losses in new geographical markets are expected. But, management has demonstrated its execution capability over the last three years. Considering its much reduced adjusted EBITDA losses over the previous few years, we believe that Shopee is even better positioned than before to navigate its expansion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于其电子商务的扩张，盈利之路可能会进一步延长。读者可以快速浏览上图，其中2023财年在过去五个月中对其调整后的每股收益预期进行了下调。然而，我们认为，如果您是至少有五年期限的长期投资者，则无需担心。Sea Limited 的早期投资者可以清楚地回忆起该公司每笔订单的巨额调整后 EBITDA 损失，如上图表所示。Shopee 在过去五年中规模巨大，并进一步提高了运营杠杆。但是，重要的是要注意，扩大规模需要时间。因此，预计新地理市场的早期亏损。但是，管理层在过去三年中已经展示了其执行能力。考虑到过去几年调整后 EBITDA 亏损大幅减少，我们相信 Shopee 比以前更有能力进行扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is SE Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，SE 股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbc835e49ded8a7a0e5f4fcc9e10649\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock EV/NTM Revenue 4Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票EV/NTM收入4年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SE stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 8.3x. Therefore, it has brought it back to its 4Y NTM revenue multiple mean of 8.6x. We believe there's a fantastic opportunity right now as the market has undoubtedly overreacted. As demonstrated clearly, SE is still expected to generate massive revenue growth moving ahead, even though it means the road to profitability gets further extended.</p><p><blockquote>SE 股票的 EV/NTM 收入为 8.3 倍。因此，它已将其恢复到 4 年 NTM 收入倍数平均值 8.6 倍。我们相信现在有一个绝佳的机会，因为市场无疑已经反应过度。正如清楚地表明的那样，SE 仍有望在未来实现巨大的收入增长，尽管这意味着盈利之路将进一步延长。</blockquote></p><p> Considering its FY23 revenue estimate, SE stock is trading at just 5.8x FY23 revenue. No one can accurately predict where the stock will be headed over the next few months. But, we think it represents a tremendous opportunity right now.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到其2023财年收入预期，SE 股票的交易价格仅为2023财年收入的 5.8 倍。没有人能够准确预测该股未来几个月的走势。但是，我们认为现在这是一个巨大的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bea18a0bdfd970ea640308dc35e099c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock price target Vs. actual price trend. Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE 股价目标与实际价格趋势。来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, readers can observe that the valuation gap between SE stock's consensus price target (PT) of $405.87 and its current price has never been more significant in a while. It's even more pronounced than its last significant correction in April/May. Notably, the consensus price target has been revised upwards despite the so-called \"gaming headwinds.\" And, if you look at the price chart, SE stock price has followed the revised PT trend very consistently over time. Therefore, the current price could be one of the most significant discounts you could observe in a long time.</p><p><blockquote>此外，读者可以观察到，SE 股票的共识目标价 (PT) 405.87 美元与其当前价格之间的估值差距一段时间以来从未如此显着。这比4月/5月的上一次大幅调整更加明显。值得注意的是，尽管存在所谓的“博彩逆风”，但共识目标价格已被上调。而且，如果你看一下价格图表，随着时间的推移，SE 股价一直非常一致地遵循修订后的 PT 趋势。因此，当前价格可能是您在很长一段时间内观察到的最大折扣之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939a544ab94c9e2a2b8a6db943703b39\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock DCF valuation model. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, company filings, author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票DCF估值模型。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ、公司文件、作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our DCF model also shows that SE stock is now significantly undervalued with an implied fair value of $371.46. We have also used reasonable estimates in our model. Moreover, we believe that SE will continue to gain significant operating leverage as it scales in the new markets. We estimate that its adjusted EBITDA margins could reach 15% by FY25.</p><p><blockquote>我们的 DCF 模型还显示，SE 股票目前被严重低估，隐含公允价值为 371.46 美元。我们在模型中也使用了合理的估计。此外，我们相信，随着SE在新市场的扩大规模，SE将继续获得显著的运营杠杆。我们预计，到 2025 财年，其调整后 EBITDA 利润率可能达到 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, the stock is also testing a critical support level that has strongly underpinned the stock's advance since early 2021. Therefore, there are sufficient reasons to believe that the current entry point to add exposure to SE stock seems very attractive now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，该股还在测试一个关键支撑位，该支撑位自 2021 年初以来一直有力地支撑着该股的上涨。因此，有足够的理由相信，目前增加SE股票敞口的切入点现在看来非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently,<i>we revise our rating on SE stock to Strong Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，<i>我们将 SE 股票评级修改为强力买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Stock: Down 43% From Its High, is a Buy Now?<blockquote>Sea股票：较高点下跌43%，现在买入吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Stock: Down 43% From Its High, is a Buy Now?<blockquote>Sea股票：较高点下跌43%，现在买入吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sea Limited stock has been battered recently as growth stocks sold off massively in the market.</li> <li>However, we believe that the fundamental thesis on its rapid growth remains robust.</li> <li>We discuss why investors should capitalize on its recent significant correction to add exposure.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于市场成长型股票大幅抛售，Sea Limited 的股票最近遭受重创。</li><li>然而，我们认为其快速增长的基本论点仍然稳固。</li><li>我们讨论为什么投资者应该利用最近的重大调整来增加风险敞口。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited(NYSE:SE) stock is one of our highest conviction growth stocks that has been severely battered over the last month. Since its recent all-time high (ATH) in October, its price has dropped by a dramatic 43%. Many reasons have been presented on why the stock has fallen. We exhort investors not to read too much into them. We believe nothing material has changed from its fundamental thesis. The stock has had a remarkable run in 2021 relative to its gaming peers or e-tailer peers. Therefore, profit-taking of this extent should not be surprising as fear struck growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）股票是我们最相信的成长型股票之一，在上个月遭受了严重打击。自 10 月份创下历史新高 (ATH) 以来，其价格已大幅下跌 43%。关于该股下跌的原因有很多。我们建议投资者不要过多地解读它们。我们认为它的基本论点没有任何实质性的改变。相对于游戏同行或电子零售商同行，该股在 2021 年表现出色。因此，当恐惧袭击成长型股票时，这种程度的获利了结并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the recent significant correction in growth stocks across the market has also hit SE stock hard. But, we are not concerned. Significant volatility will always be a factor influencing the performance of growth stocks like SE in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，近期全市场成长股的大幅回调也对SE股造成了沉重打击。但是，我们并不担心。短期内，显著的波动性始终是影响SE等成长股表现的一个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, we observed that the consensus target price on SE stock had been revised upwards since its FQ3 report card. Moreover, the gap between its price target and its current stock price has been greater than its last significant correction in April/May.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，我们观察到，自第三季度报告以来，SE 股票的一致目标价已被上调。此外，其目标价与其当前股价之间的差距已经大于其上一次在4月/5月的大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> Our internal DCF valuation model also points to a stock that is now significantly undervalued. Thanks to the market's myopia, we have been presented with another fantastic opportunity since April/May to add SE stock with great fervor again.</p><p><blockquote>我们的内部 DCF 估值模型还指出了一只目前被严重低估的股票。由于市场的短视，自4月/5月以来，我们又迎来了一个绝佳的机会，再次以极大的热情增持SE股票。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss why we think investors should not miss this incredible opportunity to add exposure to an outstanding growth stock.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论为什么我们认为投资者不应该错过这个难以置信的机会来增加对优秀成长型股票的投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SE Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SE 股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c191d1f0f6a10e392845cdbda1264aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock YTD performance (as of 17 December'21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票年初至今表现（截至21年12月17日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a result of the significant correction recently, SE stock's YTD return has dropped to 6.9%, thus underperforming the market. Notably, its YTD gain was as high as 80% in October/early November. Despite that, the stock is still outperforming its e-tailer and gaming peers, as shown above.</p><p><blockquote>由于最近的大幅调整，SE股票的年初至今回报率已降至6.9%，因此跑输大盘。值得注意的是，其年初至今的涨幅在10月/11月初高达80%。尽管如此，如上图所示，该股的表现仍然优于电子零售商和游戏同行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sea Stock Estimates Have Consistently Been Revised Upwards</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Sea 股票预测一直被上调</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8555128e2a30e924dd6c2dd162a27eea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sea Limited revised revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited 修订后的收入平均共识估计。数据来源：标普资本智商、Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly observe that the company's revenue consensus estimates for FY21-23 have consistently been revised upwards over the last five months. These revisions lend credence to the robust growth prospects of the company over the next two years. Notably, Sea Limited's revenue is estimated to increase at a phenomenal CAGR of 42.8% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以很快观察到，该公司对 21-23 财年的收入共识预期在过去五个月中一直被上调。这些修订为公司未来两年强劲的增长前景提供了可信度。值得注意的是，Sea Limited 的收入预计将通过2023财年以 42.8% 的惊人复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> There were concerns over the growth rates of its Garena gaming arm in its FQ3 report card.We also explained in our previous article that Sea Limited has clearly explained that investors should expect normalization in Garena's growth after two spectacular years. However, its monetization capability continues to dazzle. Therefore, we are confident that Garena can continue its robust monetization strategies moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度成绩单中对 Garena 游戏部门的增长率表示担忧。我们还在之前的文章中解释说，Sea Limited 已明确解释说，投资者应该期待 Garena 在经历了辉煌的两年后增长恢复正常。然而，其变现能力继续令人眼花缭乱。因此，我们相信 Garena 能够继续其稳健的货币化战略。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, data from Sensor Tower's recent gaming statistics continue to point to sturdy performance from its Free Fire game. It continues to be ranked among the top ten mobile games in terms of overall gaming revenue in November. Moreover, it's also ranked#2 in overall downloadsacross both the App Store and Google Play. Notably, it's also among eight games globally whose annual revenue crossed $1B as of 14 December. Therefore, we think the sentiments and chatter about Free Fire's \"one-shot wonder\" have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Sensor Tower最近的游戏统计数据继续表明其Free Fire游戏的强劲表现。就11月游戏整体收入而言，它继续位居移动游戏前十。此外，它在App Store和Google Play的总下载量中也排名第二。值得注意的是，截至12月14日，它也是全球八款年收入超过10亿美元的游戏之一。因此，我们认为关于Free Fire“一次性奇迹”的情绪和喋喋不休被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51247ba1efd7fa6d333b482446e94c9a\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Global games market forecast. Source: Google, Newzoo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球游戏市场预测。资料来源：谷歌、Newzoo</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, the global gaming market is estimated to experience a slight decline to $175.8B after last year's massive 23% growth to $177.8B. However, given Garena's impressive growth in FY21 despite the decline in the global market, we believe it validates its business model and prospects. Notably, the gaming market is expected to reverse its decline moving forward. Therefore, Garena's leadership in mobile gaming could continue to propel its growth underpinned by the recovery in the global gaming market.</p><p><blockquote>此外，全球博彩市场在去年大幅增长 23% 至 177.8B 美元后，预计将略有下降至 175.8B 美元。然而，鉴于尽管全球市场下滑，Garena 在 2021 财年仍实现了令人印象深刻的增长，我们相信这验证了其商业模式和前景。值得注意的是，博彩市场有望在未来扭转颓势。因此，在全球游戏市场复苏的推动下，Garena 在移动游戏领域的领导地位可能会继续推动其增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a0612da9a19f7b7198d43213b4f4470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Shopee adjusted EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopee 调整了每个订单的 EBITDA。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But, some investors may have been spooked by Shopee's (Sea Limited's e-commerce arm) continued expansion into new geographical markets. Notably, Shopee continues to report adjusted EBITDA loss per order, as shown above. Therefore, some investors might have been concerned about whether the company's plate is getting too much to handle. Over the last three months, the company has entered into new markets such as India, France, Spain, and Poland. They are in addition to its battle with MercadoLibre (MELI) in Latin America, particularly Brazil. As a result, there are concerns on whether Sea Limited could continue its adroit execution in these markets while still making losses. We believe such concerns are valid. However, Sea Limited has shown its tremendous capability in penetrating the most important markets where the incumbents have strong leadership. It includes Lazada (BABA) in Southeast Asia, MercadoLibre in Brazil, and Tokopedia in Indonesia. Shopee was never the first-mover. But, it took advantage as the \"late-comer\" as it sought to compete with the incumbents. It's important to note that Sea Limited is not averse to competition. It has thrived against the incumbents and has made the e-commerce space in these geographical regions much more competitive.</p><p><blockquote>但是，一些投资者可能对 Shopee（Sea Limited 的电子商务部门）向新地理市场的持续扩张感到害怕。值得注意的是，Shopee 继续报告每个订单的调整后 EBITDA 损失，如上所示。因此，一些投资者可能担心该公司的盘子是否有太多难以处理。在过去的三个月里，该公司进入了印度、法国、西班牙和波兰等新市场。此外，它还在拉丁美洲，特别是巴西与自由市场（MELI）的斗争。因此，人们担心 Sea Limited 能否在这些市场继续其娴熟的执行，同时仍在亏损。我们认为这种担忧是合理的。然而，Sea Limited 在渗透现有企业拥有强大领导地位的最重要市场方面表现出了巨大的能力。它包括东南亚的Lazada（BABA）、巴西的MercadoLibre和印度尼西亚的Tokopedia。Shopee从来都不是先行者。但是，它利用了“后来者”的优势，试图与现任者竞争。值得注意的是，Sea Limited并不反对竞争。它与现有企业相比蓬勃发展，并使这些地理区域的电子商务领域更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80938433e2d55307ca40000eeea2a26f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sea Limited revised adjusted EPS mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited 修订调整后每股收益平均共识估计。数据来源：标普资本智商、Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the road towards profitability might be stretched further due to its e-commerce expansion. Readers can quickly glance over the chart above, where its adjusted EPS estimates have been revised downwards through FY23 over the last five months. However, we believe that if you are a long-term investor with a five-year horizon at least, it's not a cause for concern. Earlier investors in Sea Limited can keenly recall the company's massive adjusted EBITDA per order losses, as seen in the previous chart. Shopee has scaled tremendously over the last five years and has improved its operating leverage further. But, it's important to note that it takes time to scale up. Therefore, earlier losses in new geographical markets are expected. But, management has demonstrated its execution capability over the last three years. Considering its much reduced adjusted EBITDA losses over the previous few years, we believe that Shopee is even better positioned than before to navigate its expansion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于其电子商务的扩张，盈利之路可能会进一步延长。读者可以快速浏览上图，其中2023财年在过去五个月中对其调整后的每股收益预期进行了下调。然而，我们认为，如果您是至少有五年期限的长期投资者，则无需担心。Sea Limited 的早期投资者可以清楚地回忆起该公司每笔订单的巨额调整后 EBITDA 损失，如上图表所示。Shopee 在过去五年中规模巨大，并进一步提高了运营杠杆。但是，重要的是要注意，扩大规模需要时间。因此，预计新地理市场的早期亏损。但是，管理层在过去三年中已经展示了其执行能力。考虑到过去几年调整后 EBITDA 亏损大幅减少，我们相信 Shopee 比以前更有能力进行扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is SE Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，SE 股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbc835e49ded8a7a0e5f4fcc9e10649\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock EV/NTM Revenue 4Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票EV/NTM收入4年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SE stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 8.3x. Therefore, it has brought it back to its 4Y NTM revenue multiple mean of 8.6x. We believe there's a fantastic opportunity right now as the market has undoubtedly overreacted. As demonstrated clearly, SE is still expected to generate massive revenue growth moving ahead, even though it means the road to profitability gets further extended.</p><p><blockquote>SE 股票的 EV/NTM 收入为 8.3 倍。因此，它已将其恢复到 4 年 NTM 收入倍数平均值 8.6 倍。我们相信现在有一个绝佳的机会，因为市场无疑已经反应过度。正如清楚地表明的那样，SE 仍有望在未来实现巨大的收入增长，尽管这意味着盈利之路将进一步延长。</blockquote></p><p> Considering its FY23 revenue estimate, SE stock is trading at just 5.8x FY23 revenue. No one can accurately predict where the stock will be headed over the next few months. But, we think it represents a tremendous opportunity right now.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到其2023财年收入预期，SE 股票的交易价格仅为2023财年收入的 5.8 倍。没有人能够准确预测该股未来几个月的走势。但是，我们认为现在这是一个巨大的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bea18a0bdfd970ea640308dc35e099c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock price target Vs. actual price trend. Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE 股价目标与实际价格趋势。来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, readers can observe that the valuation gap between SE stock's consensus price target (PT) of $405.87 and its current price has never been more significant in a while. It's even more pronounced than its last significant correction in April/May. Notably, the consensus price target has been revised upwards despite the so-called \"gaming headwinds.\" And, if you look at the price chart, SE stock price has followed the revised PT trend very consistently over time. Therefore, the current price could be one of the most significant discounts you could observe in a long time.</p><p><blockquote>此外，读者可以观察到，SE 股票的共识目标价 (PT) 405.87 美元与其当前价格之间的估值差距一段时间以来从未如此显着。这比4月/5月的上一次大幅调整更加明显。值得注意的是，尽管存在所谓的“博彩逆风”，但共识目标价格已被上调。而且，如果你看一下价格图表，随着时间的推移，SE 股价一直非常一致地遵循修订后的 PT 趋势。因此，当前价格可能是您在很长一段时间内观察到的最大折扣之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939a544ab94c9e2a2b8a6db943703b39\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock DCF valuation model. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, company filings, author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票DCF估值模型。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ、公司文件、作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our DCF model also shows that SE stock is now significantly undervalued with an implied fair value of $371.46. We have also used reasonable estimates in our model. Moreover, we believe that SE will continue to gain significant operating leverage as it scales in the new markets. We estimate that its adjusted EBITDA margins could reach 15% by FY25.</p><p><blockquote>我们的 DCF 模型还显示，SE 股票目前被严重低估，隐含公允价值为 371.46 美元。我们在模型中也使用了合理的估计。此外，我们相信，随着SE在新市场的扩大规模，SE将继续获得显著的运营杠杆。我们预计，到 2025 财年，其调整后 EBITDA 利润率可能达到 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, the stock is also testing a critical support level that has strongly underpinned the stock's advance since early 2021. Therefore, there are sufficient reasons to believe that the current entry point to add exposure to SE stock seems very attractive now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，该股还在测试一个关键支撑位，该支撑位自 2021 年初以来一直有力地支撑着该股的上涨。因此，有足够的理由相信，目前增加SE股票敞口的切入点现在看来非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently,<i>we revise our rating on SE stock to Strong Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，<i>我们将 SE 股票评级修改为强力买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475931-sea-se-down-significantly-stock-strong-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475931-sea-se-down-significantly-stock-strong-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109541249","content_text":"Summary\n\nSea Limited stock has been battered recently as growth stocks sold off massively in the market.\nHowever, we believe that the fundamental thesis on its rapid growth remains robust.\nWe discuss why investors should capitalize on its recent significant correction to add exposure.\n\nkokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nSea Limited(NYSE:SE) stock is one of our highest conviction growth stocks that has been severely battered over the last month. Since its recent all-time high (ATH) in October, its price has dropped by a dramatic 43%. Many reasons have been presented on why the stock has fallen. We exhort investors not to read too much into them. We believe nothing material has changed from its fundamental thesis. The stock has had a remarkable run in 2021 relative to its gaming peers or e-tailer peers. Therefore, profit-taking of this extent should not be surprising as fear struck growth stocks.\nMoreover, the recent significant correction in growth stocks across the market has also hit SE stock hard. But, we are not concerned. Significant volatility will always be a factor influencing the performance of growth stocks like SE in the short term.\nNotably, we observed that the consensus target price on SE stock had been revised upwards since its FQ3 report card. Moreover, the gap between its price target and its current stock price has been greater than its last significant correction in April/May.\nOur internal DCF valuation model also points to a stock that is now significantly undervalued. Thanks to the market's myopia, we have been presented with another fantastic opportunity since April/May to add SE stock with great fervor again.\nWe discuss why we think investors should not miss this incredible opportunity to add exposure to an outstanding growth stock.\nSE Stock YTD Performance\nSE stock YTD performance (as of 17 December'21).\nAs a result of the significant correction recently, SE stock's YTD return has dropped to 6.9%, thus underperforming the market. Notably, its YTD gain was as high as 80% in October/early November. Despite that, the stock is still outperforming its e-tailer and gaming peers, as shown above.\nSea Stock Estimates Have Consistently Been Revised Upwards\nSea Limited revised revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha\nReaders can quickly observe that the company's revenue consensus estimates for FY21-23 have consistently been revised upwards over the last five months. These revisions lend credence to the robust growth prospects of the company over the next two years. Notably, Sea Limited's revenue is estimated to increase at a phenomenal CAGR of 42.8% through FY23.\nThere were concerns over the growth rates of its Garena gaming arm in its FQ3 report card.We also explained in our previous article that Sea Limited has clearly explained that investors should expect normalization in Garena's growth after two spectacular years. However, its monetization capability continues to dazzle. Therefore, we are confident that Garena can continue its robust monetization strategies moving forward.\nMoreover, data from Sensor Tower's recent gaming statistics continue to point to sturdy performance from its Free Fire game. It continues to be ranked among the top ten mobile games in terms of overall gaming revenue in November. Moreover, it's also ranked#2 in overall downloadsacross both the App Store and Google Play. Notably, it's also among eight games globally whose annual revenue crossed $1B as of 14 December. Therefore, we think the sentiments and chatter about Free Fire's \"one-shot wonder\" have been overblown.\nGlobal games market forecast. Source: Google, Newzoo\nIn addition, the global gaming market is estimated to experience a slight decline to $175.8B after last year's massive 23% growth to $177.8B. However, given Garena's impressive growth in FY21 despite the decline in the global market, we believe it validates its business model and prospects. Notably, the gaming market is expected to reverse its decline moving forward. Therefore, Garena's leadership in mobile gaming could continue to propel its growth underpinned by the recovery in the global gaming market.\nShopee adjusted EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings\nBut, some investors may have been spooked by Shopee's (Sea Limited's e-commerce arm) continued expansion into new geographical markets. Notably, Shopee continues to report adjusted EBITDA loss per order, as shown above. Therefore, some investors might have been concerned about whether the company's plate is getting too much to handle. Over the last three months, the company has entered into new markets such as India, France, Spain, and Poland. They are in addition to its battle with MercadoLibre (MELI) in Latin America, particularly Brazil. As a result, there are concerns on whether Sea Limited could continue its adroit execution in these markets while still making losses. We believe such concerns are valid. However, Sea Limited has shown its tremendous capability in penetrating the most important markets where the incumbents have strong leadership. It includes Lazada (BABA) in Southeast Asia, MercadoLibre in Brazil, and Tokopedia in Indonesia. Shopee was never the first-mover. But, it took advantage as the \"late-comer\" as it sought to compete with the incumbents. It's important to note that Sea Limited is not averse to competition. It has thrived against the incumbents and has made the e-commerce space in these geographical regions much more competitive.\nSea Limited revised adjusted EPS mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha\nNevertheless, the road towards profitability might be stretched further due to its e-commerce expansion. Readers can quickly glance over the chart above, where its adjusted EPS estimates have been revised downwards through FY23 over the last five months. However, we believe that if you are a long-term investor with a five-year horizon at least, it's not a cause for concern. Earlier investors in Sea Limited can keenly recall the company's massive adjusted EBITDA per order losses, as seen in the previous chart. Shopee has scaled tremendously over the last five years and has improved its operating leverage further. But, it's important to note that it takes time to scale up. Therefore, earlier losses in new geographical markets are expected. But, management has demonstrated its execution capability over the last three years. Considering its much reduced adjusted EBITDA losses over the previous few years, we believe that Shopee is even better positioned than before to navigate its expansion.\nSo, is SE Stock a Buy Now?\nSE stock EV/NTM Revenue 4Y mean.\nSE stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 8.3x. Therefore, it has brought it back to its 4Y NTM revenue multiple mean of 8.6x. We believe there's a fantastic opportunity right now as the market has undoubtedly overreacted. As demonstrated clearly, SE is still expected to generate massive revenue growth moving ahead, even though it means the road to profitability gets further extended.\nConsidering its FY23 revenue estimate, SE stock is trading at just 5.8x FY23 revenue. No one can accurately predict where the stock will be headed over the next few months. But, we think it represents a tremendous opportunity right now.\nSE stock price target Vs. actual price trend. Source: Seeking Alpha\nMoreover, readers can observe that the valuation gap between SE stock's consensus price target (PT) of $405.87 and its current price has never been more significant in a while. It's even more pronounced than its last significant correction in April/May. Notably, the consensus price target has been revised upwards despite the so-called \"gaming headwinds.\" And, if you look at the price chart, SE stock price has followed the revised PT trend very consistently over time. Therefore, the current price could be one of the most significant discounts you could observe in a long time.\nSE stock DCF valuation model. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, company filings, author\nOur DCF model also shows that SE stock is now significantly undervalued with an implied fair value of $371.46. We have also used reasonable estimates in our model. Moreover, we believe that SE will continue to gain significant operating leverage as it scales in the new markets. We estimate that its adjusted EBITDA margins could reach 15% by FY25.\nLastly, the stock is also testing a critical support level that has strongly underpinned the stock's advance since early 2021. Therefore, there are sufficient reasons to believe that the current entry point to add exposure to SE stock seems very attractive now.\nConsequently,we revise our rating on SE stock to Strong Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4551,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/693111372"}
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