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2021-12-20
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Stocks will roar higher into year-end and January as an 'overshoot' in selling leads to a short squeeze, JPMorgan's quant guru says<blockquote>摩根大通量化大师表示，由于抛售“过度”导致空头挤压，股市将在年底和一月份大幅走高</blockquote>
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But the overall market, as measured by the Russell 3000, is still up about 22% for the year.</p><p><blockquote>这位量化大师在周五发布的一份阐述股市展望的报告中表示，美国股市较高点下跌了 28%。但以罗素 3000 指数衡量的整体市场今年仍上涨了约 22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Such a divergence is unknown to us, and indicates a historically unprecedented overshoot in selling smaller, more volatile, typically value and cyclical stocks in the last 4 weeks,\" Kolanovic wrote.</p><p><blockquote>科拉诺维奇写道：“我们不知道这种背离，这表明过去 4 周内出售规模较小、波动性较大、通常是价值型和周期性股票的数量出现了历史上前所未有的过度。”</blockquote></p><p> Headlines attribute the market decline to the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance and the surge in Omicron coronavirus cases. Actual selling, however, is due to de-risking and shorting from hedge funds, he said.</p><p><blockquote>头条新闻将市场下跌归因于美联储更加鹰派的立场和奥密克戎冠状病毒病例的激增。然而，他表示，实际抛售是由于对冲基金的去风险化和做空。</blockquote></p><p> But the conditions needed for a successful short-selling effort don't exist, meaning \"this market episode may end up in a short squeeze and cyclical rally into year-end and January,\" Kolanovic predicted.</p><p><blockquote>但成功卖空努力所需的条件并不存在，这意味着“这一市场事件可能会在年底和一月份以空头挤压和周期性反弹告终，”科拉诺维奇预测。</blockquote></p><p> He pointed out volatility-targeting and risk-parity funds are adding exposure, with a strong value-growth rotation also underway. Overall, the situation from a technical or fundamental perspective doesn't resemble the massive stock market rout seen in the fourth quarter of 2018, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，波动性目标基金和风险平价基金正在增加风险敞口，强劲的价值增长轮换也在进行中。他补充说，总体而言，从技术或基本面角度来看，情况与 2018 年第四季度股市的大规模崩盘并不相似。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Kolanovic said \"there is aggressive shorting, likely in a hope of declines in retail equity position and cryptocurrency holdings - while in fact both of these markets and retail investors have shown resilience in the past weeks.\"</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，科拉诺维奇表示，“仍然存在激进的做空，可能是希望散户股票头寸和加密货币持有量下降——而事实上，这些市场和散户投资者在过去几周都表现出了弹性。”</blockquote></p><p> Those shorts now looked to get squeezed. Large short positions will likely need to be closed before January, when he expects a rally in small-cap, value and cyclical stocks. Plus, the closing of short positions may have a bigger impact than the opening of them, as liquidity conditions dry up.</p><p><blockquote>那些短裤现在看起来被挤压了。大量空头头寸可能需要在一月份之前平仓，届时他预计小盘股、价值股和周期性股票将上涨。此外，随着流动性状况的枯竭，平仓空头头寸可能比开仓产生更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the Omicron variant appears less threatening to the stock market outlook. Even though vaccinated people are more vulnerable to infections, fatality rates are not spiking. In fact, in countries with a surge in cases like South Africa and the UK, deaths have been declining in recent weeks, according to the note.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，奥密克戎变体对股市前景的威胁似乎较小。尽管接种疫苗的人更容易受到感染，但死亡率并没有飙升。事实上，根据该报告，在南非和英国等病例激增的国家，最近几周死亡人数一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> That tracks with public health agencies that have said Omicron is more transmissible than the Delta variant but produces milder symptoms.</p><p><blockquote>这与公共卫生机构一致，公共卫生机构表示奥密克戎病毒比德尔塔变异毒株病毒更具传染性，但产生的症状较轻。</blockquote></p><p> Kolanovic's bullish note follows another one he released on Wednesday that outlined three reasons behind his expectation that equities will continue to rise next year.</p><p><blockquote>科拉诺维奇的看涨言论是在他周三发布的另一份言论之后发表的，该言论概述了他预计明年股市将继续上涨背后的三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"We continue to see upside in equities on better than expected earnings growth, China/emerging market backdrop improving, and normalizing consumer spending habits,\" he explained, adding that US corporations could post above-consensus earnings growth of 14%.</p><p><blockquote>他解释说：“由于盈利增长好于预期、中国/新兴市场背景改善以及消费者消费习惯正常化，我们继续看到股市上涨。”他补充说，美国企业的盈利增长可能高于市场预期，达到 14%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks will roar higher into year-end and January as an 'overshoot' in selling leads to a short squeeze, JPMorgan's quant guru says<blockquote>摩根大通量化大师表示，由于抛售“过度”导致空头挤压，股市将在年底和一月份大幅走高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks will roar higher into year-end and January as an 'overshoot' in selling leads to a short squeeze, JPMorgan's quant guru says<blockquote>摩根大通量化大师表示，由于抛售“过度”导致空头挤压，股市将在年底和一月份大幅走高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Markets Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 09:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul> <li><b>A top Wall Street analyst offered an upbeat stock market outlook for the rest of 2021 and early 2022 after a bout of steep selling.</b></li> <li><b>JPMorgan quant guru Marko Kolanovic based this prediction on indications that short sellers will get squeezed soon.</b></li> <li><b>The macroeconomic outlook remains strong despite the Omicron variant surge as coronavirus deaths have been muted.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2355fdf73a4598279982d04bc32770\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>在经历了一轮大幅抛售后，一位华尔街顶级分析师对 2021 年剩余时间和 2022 年初的股市前景持乐观态度。</b></li><li><b>摩根大通量化大师马尔科·科拉诺维奇 (Marko Kolanovic) 根据卖空者将很快受到挤压的迹象做出了这一预测。</b></li><li><b>尽管奥密克戎变种激增，但随着冠状病毒死亡人数的减少，宏观经济前景仍然强劲。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>交易员在纽约证券交易所的大厅里工作</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stocks are poised for a year-end and early-2022 rally as the recent sell-off appears overdone and hints at moves by short sellers who will soon get squeezed, according to Marko Kolanovic, the chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇 (Marko Kolanovic) 表示，由于最近的抛售似乎过度，并暗示卖空者很快就会受到挤压，股市有望在年底和 2022 年初上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In a note published Friday laying out his stock market outlook, the quant guru said US stocks are 28% off their highs. But the overall market, as measured by the Russell 3000, is still up about 22% for the year.</p><p><blockquote>这位量化大师在周五发布的一份阐述股市展望的报告中表示，美国股市较高点下跌了 28%。但以罗素 3000 指数衡量的整体市场今年仍上涨了约 22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Such a divergence is unknown to us, and indicates a historically unprecedented overshoot in selling smaller, more volatile, typically value and cyclical stocks in the last 4 weeks,\" Kolanovic wrote.</p><p><blockquote>科拉诺维奇写道：“我们不知道这种背离，这表明过去 4 周内出售规模较小、波动性较大、通常是价值型和周期性股票的数量出现了历史上前所未有的过度。”</blockquote></p><p> Headlines attribute the market decline to the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance and the surge in Omicron coronavirus cases. Actual selling, however, is due to de-risking and shorting from hedge funds, he said.</p><p><blockquote>头条新闻将市场下跌归因于美联储更加鹰派的立场和奥密克戎冠状病毒病例的激增。然而，他表示，实际抛售是由于对冲基金的去风险化和做空。</blockquote></p><p> But the conditions needed for a successful short-selling effort don't exist, meaning \"this market episode may end up in a short squeeze and cyclical rally into year-end and January,\" Kolanovic predicted.</p><p><blockquote>但成功卖空努力所需的条件并不存在，这意味着“这一市场事件可能会在年底和一月份以空头挤压和周期性反弹告终，”科拉诺维奇预测。</blockquote></p><p> He pointed out volatility-targeting and risk-parity funds are adding exposure, with a strong value-growth rotation also underway. Overall, the situation from a technical or fundamental perspective doesn't resemble the massive stock market rout seen in the fourth quarter of 2018, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，波动性目标基金和风险平价基金正在增加风险敞口，强劲的价值增长轮换也在进行中。他补充说，总体而言，从技术或基本面角度来看，情况与 2018 年第四季度股市的大规模崩盘并不相似。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Kolanovic said \"there is aggressive shorting, likely in a hope of declines in retail equity position and cryptocurrency holdings - while in fact both of these markets and retail investors have shown resilience in the past weeks.\"</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，科拉诺维奇表示，“仍然存在激进的做空，可能是希望散户股票头寸和加密货币持有量下降——而事实上，这些市场和散户投资者在过去几周都表现出了弹性。”</blockquote></p><p> Those shorts now looked to get squeezed. Large short positions will likely need to be closed before January, when he expects a rally in small-cap, value and cyclical stocks. Plus, the closing of short positions may have a bigger impact than the opening of them, as liquidity conditions dry up.</p><p><blockquote>那些短裤现在看起来被挤压了。大量空头头寸可能需要在一月份之前平仓，届时他预计小盘股、价值股和周期性股票将上涨。此外，随着流动性状况的枯竭，平仓空头头寸可能比开仓产生更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the Omicron variant appears less threatening to the stock market outlook. Even though vaccinated people are more vulnerable to infections, fatality rates are not spiking. In fact, in countries with a surge in cases like South Africa and the UK, deaths have been declining in recent weeks, according to the note.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，奥密克戎变体对股市前景的威胁似乎较小。尽管接种疫苗的人更容易受到感染，但死亡率并没有飙升。事实上，根据该报告，在南非和英国等病例激增的国家，最近几周死亡人数一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> That tracks with public health agencies that have said Omicron is more transmissible than the Delta variant but produces milder symptoms.</p><p><blockquote>这与公共卫生机构一致，公共卫生机构表示奥密克戎病毒比德尔塔变异毒株病毒更具传染性，但产生的症状较轻。</blockquote></p><p> Kolanovic's bullish note follows another one he released on Wednesday that outlined three reasons behind his expectation that equities will continue to rise next year.</p><p><blockquote>科拉诺维奇的看涨言论是在他周三发布的另一份言论之后发表的，该言论概述了他预计明年股市将继续上涨背后的三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"We continue to see upside in equities on better than expected earnings growth, China/emerging market backdrop improving, and normalizing consumer spending habits,\" he explained, adding that US corporations could post above-consensus earnings growth of 14%.</p><p><blockquote>他解释说：“由于盈利增长好于预期、中国/新兴市场背景改善以及消费者消费习惯正常化，我们继续看到股市上涨。”他补充说，美国企业的盈利增长可能高于市场预期，达到 14%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-overselling-short-squeeze-year-end-january-rally-2021-12\">Markets Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-overselling-short-squeeze-year-end-january-rally-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140820877","content_text":"A top Wall Street analyst offered an upbeat stock market outlook for the rest of 2021 and early 2022 after a bout of steep selling.\nJPMorgan quant guru Marko Kolanovic based this prediction on indications that short sellers will get squeezed soon.\nThe macroeconomic outlook remains strong despite the Omicron variant surge as coronavirus deaths have been muted.\n\nTraders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange\nStocks are poised for a year-end and early-2022 rally as the recent sell-off appears overdone and hints at moves by short sellers who will soon get squeezed, according to Marko Kolanovic, the chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.\nIn a note published Friday laying out his stock market outlook, the quant guru said US stocks are 28% off their highs. But the overall market, as measured by the Russell 3000, is still up about 22% for the year.\n\"Such a divergence is unknown to us, and indicates a historically unprecedented overshoot in selling smaller, more volatile, typically value and cyclical stocks in the last 4 weeks,\" Kolanovic wrote.\nHeadlines attribute the market decline to the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance and the surge in Omicron coronavirus cases. Actual selling, however, is due to de-risking and shorting from hedge funds, he said.\nBut the conditions needed for a successful short-selling effort don't exist, meaning \"this market episode may end up in a short squeeze and cyclical rally into year-end and January,\" Kolanovic predicted.\nHe pointed out volatility-targeting and risk-parity funds are adding exposure, with a strong value-growth rotation also underway. Overall, the situation from a technical or fundamental perspective doesn't resemble the massive stock market rout seen in the fourth quarter of 2018, he added.\nStill, Kolanovic said \"there is aggressive shorting, likely in a hope of declines in retail equity position and cryptocurrency holdings - while in fact both of these markets and retail investors have shown resilience in the past weeks.\"\nThose shorts now looked to get squeezed. Large short positions will likely need to be closed before January, when he expects a rally in small-cap, value and cyclical stocks. Plus, the closing of short positions may have a bigger impact than the opening of them, as liquidity conditions dry up.\nMeanwhile, the Omicron variant appears less threatening to the stock market outlook. Even though vaccinated people are more vulnerable to infections, fatality rates are not spiking. In fact, in countries with a surge in cases like South Africa and the UK, deaths have been declining in recent weeks, according to the note.\nThat tracks with public health agencies that have said Omicron is more transmissible than the Delta variant but produces milder symptoms.\nKolanovic's bullish note follows another one he released on Wednesday that outlined three reasons behind his expectation that equities will continue to rise next year.\n\"We continue to see upside in equities on better than expected earnings growth, China/emerging market backdrop improving, and normalizing consumer spending habits,\" he explained, adding that US corporations could post above-consensus earnings growth of 14%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3365,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/693300553"}
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