Hayz
2021-12-20
OKAY, below $200 .... keep hoping, unless "Black Swan" or something .....
Sea: This Correction Will Pick Up Steam<blockquote>Sea：此次调整将加速</blockquote>
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Chief among this list is international tech giant Sea (SE), an internet conglomerate based on Singapore that has often been referred to as the \"Amazon (AMZN) of Southeast Asia\".</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea的股价较历史高点下跌了40%以上，这表明该公司估值过高。</li><li>通常被誉为东南亚亚马逊的海洋继续遭受巨大损失。</li><li>其最赚钱的部门游戏部门的新用户获取速度出现了惊人的放缓。</li><li>即使考虑到最近的调整，Sea的预期收入仍然很昂贵，约为10倍。</li></ul>对于股市中一些最受欢迎和被过度炒作的名字来说，轮子正在松动。其中最主要的是国际科技巨头Sea(SE)，这是一家总部位于新加坡的互联网集团，通常被称为“东南亚的亚马逊(AMZN)”。</blockquote></p><p> That narrative got a lot of traction amid the pandemic, especially as very strict lockdowns in Sea's home country of Singapore as well as surrounding countries in Southeast Asia fueled a rapid and immediate contingent of gamers to Sea's platform. At one time, Sea's shares had multiplied <b>eightfold</b> since the start of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法在疫情引起了很大的关注，特别是当Sea的母国新加坡以及东南亚周边国家非常严格的封锁促使游戏玩家迅速涌入Sea的平台时。Sea的股价一度翻了一番<b>八倍</b>自从疫情开始以来。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with the risk-off attitude that has taken hold in the markets, investors are starting to change their tune in this stock. Whereas previously the market had rewarded Sea solely for its growth and without giving regard to its massive losses and the fact that the gaming division was essentially subsidizing growth initiatives at the rest of the company, the market is starting to wake up to the fact that <b>A)</b>Sea's dominance of Southeast Asia may not be a given, especially with so many internet startups vying for market share, and <b>B)</b>Sea's formula relies so completely on the cash flow produced by the gaming division that any slowdown looks frightening.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着市场上的避险态度，投资者开始改变对这只股票的看法。此前，市场仅因Sea的增长而奖励其，而没有考虑其巨额亏损以及游戏部门本质上补贴公司其他部门增长计划的事实，但市场开始意识到以下事实：<b>A）</b>Sea在东南亚的主导地位可能不是必然的，尤其是在如此多的互联网初创公司争夺市场份额的情况下，而且<b>(B)</b>Sea的公式完全依赖于游戏部门产生的现金流，因此任何放缓看起来都令人恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> Taking these risks into account, plus the general fact that investors have dramatically sold off tech/growth stocks over the past quarter, shares of Sea have lost <b>more than 40%</b>of their market value since hitting a peak above $370.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些风险，再加上投资者在过去一个季度大幅抛售科技/成长型股票的普遍事实，Sea的股价已经下跌<b>超过40%</b>自达到370美元以上的峰值以来，其市值有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> In late October, when Sea was trading at ~$350 and near peaks, I had issued a warning article that the stock was overhyped andlong overdue for a correction. Even after this sharp fall in the stock, I still remain cautious and<b>neutral</b>on Sea, and I think there's further pain ahead, especially if the market's rotation away from growth and into value persists.</p><p><blockquote>10月底，当Sea的交易价格约为350美元并接近峰值时，我发表了一篇警告文章，称该股被过度炒作，早就应该进行调整了。即使在股票大幅下跌之后，我仍然保持谨慎和<b>中立的</b>在海上，我认为未来还会有进一步的痛苦，特别是如果市场持续从增长转向价值的话。</blockquote></p><p> Valuation still remains expensive</p><p><blockquote>估值仍然昂贵</blockquote></p><p> The chief reason I'm still unenthused on Sea - even after the sharp 40% fall from peaks, Sea still trades at an unreasonably high valuation. At current ADR share prices near $213, Sea has a $118.02 billion market cap. After we net off the $12.17 billion of cash and $3.50 billion of debt on the company's most recent balance sheet, Sea's resulting <b>enterprise value is $109.35 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>我对Sea仍然不感兴趣的主要原因是——即使在从峰值大幅下跌40%之后，Sea的估值仍然高得不合理。按目前ADR股价接近213美元计算，Sea的市值为1180.2亿美元。在我们扣除公司最新资产负债表上的121.7亿美元现金和35亿美元债务后，Sea的结果<b>企业价值为1093.5亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea's revenues to grow 50% y/y to $14.21 billion (data from Yahoo Finance). Note that this represents quite sharp deceleration from current growth rates near 100% y/y, once the pandemic tailwinds are fully baked into prior-year comps.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计明年2022财年Sea的收入将同比增长50%，达到142.1亿美元（数据来自雅虎财经）。请注意，一旦大流行的顺风完全融入上一年的比较中，这意味着当前接近100%的同比增长率将大幅减速。</blockquote></p><p> At this revenue estimate, Sea trades at a valuation multiple of<b>7.7x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据这一收入估计，Sea的估值倍数为<b>7.7倍EV/22财年收入。</b></blockquote></p><p> Sure, this is much cheaper than the mid-teens valuation that Sea used to trade at. But when evaluating this valuation, keep a few things in mind:</p><p><blockquote>当然，这比Sea过去十几岁左右的估值便宜得多。但在评估这个估值时，请记住几点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Sea's revenue skews heavily toward e-commerce, which is low-margin.</b>Non-gaming revenues contributed to 57% of overall revenue; and non-gaming IFRS gross margins were only 14% (both metrics as of YTD 2021).</li> <li><b>Sea is hardly the only game in town.</b>While certainly the most recognizable and internationally traded of Southeast Asia's internet giants, Sea is quite significant competition versus the likes of Tokopedia and Lazada.</li> <li><b>Some growth premium is of course warranted for a company growing as quickly as Sea,</b>but note that Amazon's forward revenue multiple is only 3.6x, less than half of Sea's</li> </ul> <b>The bottom line here:</b> valuation, plus the possibility of continued fundamental risks which we'll discuss in the next section, make me quite nervous that Sea's correction still has legs. I'd be more interested in picking up this stock if it fell to ~$170 (~6x forward revenue, and ~20% further downside from current levels), but until then I'm remaining on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Sea的收入严重偏向利润率较低的电子商务。</b>非博彩收入占总收入的57%；非游戏IFRS毛利率仅为14%（这两个指标截至2021年年初至今）。</li><li><b>海洋并不是镇上唯一的游戏。</b>虽然Sea无疑是东南亚互联网巨头中知名度最高、交易量最大的，但与Tokopedia和Lazada等公司相比，Sea是相当大的竞争对手。</li><li><b>对于像Sea这样快速增长的公司来说，一定的增长溢价当然是有保证的，</b>但请注意，亚马逊的远期收入倍数仅为3.6倍，不到Sea的一半</li></ul><b>底线是：</b>估值，加上我们将在下一节讨论的持续基本面风险的可能性，让我对Sea的调整仍然存在感到非常紧张。如果这只股票跌至170美元左右（预期收入约6倍，较当前水平进一步下跌约20%），我会更有兴趣买入它，但在此之前我仍保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> The fundamental risks investors should be tracking</p><p><blockquote>投资者应跟踪的基本风险</blockquote></p><p> Unlike many other tech stocks this quarter, Sea's correction was not just an expression of weakened sentiment toward growth stocks, but also a reflection of softening fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>与本季度许多其他科技股不同，Sea的调整不仅是对成长型股票情绪减弱的表现，也反映了基本面疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We've already noted how critical Sea's gaming division is to the overall operation of the company - while no longer the majority of revenue, it is the most profitable division that helps to finance losses in the rest of the company's loss-leading e-commerce arm. Sea's gaming operations saw dramatic growth during the pandemic as play time soared and willingness to pay increased - but now, amid normalization and competition versus other types of entertainment, Sea's digital entertainment base is starting to show softness.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经注意到Sea的游戏部门对公司的整体运营有多么重要——虽然不再是收入的大部分，但它是利润最高的部门，有助于弥补公司其他亏损电子商务部门的损失。臂。随着游戏时间飙升和支付意愿增强，Sea的游戏业务在疫情期间出现了急剧增长，但现在，在正常化和与其他类型娱乐的竞争中，Sea的数字娱乐基础开始显示出疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>看看下面的图表：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cfbd548965e8dae1aa3c7ef8b0b8e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For several quarters, Sea had been adding 30-40 million net-new quarterly active users. In fact, during the preceding quarter, Sea had added a massive ~76 million net-new QAUs. As long as Sea's gaming business continues to grow at a fast enough pace to absorb e-commerce's swelling losses, Sea's formula worked.</p><p><blockquote>几个季度以来，Sea的季度净新增活跃用户为3000万至4000万。事实上，在上一季度，Sea新增了约7600万个净新增QAU。只要Sea的游戏业务继续以足够快的速度增长，以吸收电子商务不断膨胀的亏损，Sea的公式就会奏效。</blockquote></p><p> But this slowdown to barely any (~4 million) net-new QAU adds in Q3 is alarming. Even more so is the fact that paid users only saw a 1 million sequential increase. The good news is that Sea's paid user ratio, at 12.8% this quarter, is the highest it has ever been in the company's lifetime. But we do worry if willingness to pay for gaming, and gaming activity in general, will decline in the post-pandemic period once schools and offices fully return to normal.</p><p><blockquote>但第三季度净新增QAU数量几乎没有（约400万），这令人担忧。更重要的是，付费用户仅环比增长了100万。好消息是，Sea本季度的付费用户比例为12.8%，是该公司历史上最高的。但我们确实担心，一旦学校和办公室完全恢复正常，在大流行后的时期，支付游戏和游戏活动的意愿是否会下降。</blockquote></p><p> For over a year now, a lot of Sea's gaming success has been anchored to its internally-developed <i>Free Fire</i> title. Yet games, of course, have a shelf life of when they pass the phase of popularity. One thing that gaming rivals like Activision Blizzard (ATVI) have been tremendously successful at is converting hit titles into sustainable, multi-game franchises like <i>Call of Duty</i>and<i>World of Warcraft/Hearthstone.</i>In this regard, Sea is relatively untested, and if it fails at sustaining<i>Free Fire's</i>momentum, it could be in trouble.</p><p><blockquote>一年多来，Sea游戏的成功很大程度上归功于其内部开发的<i>自由射击</i>标题。然而，游戏当然有一个保质期，当它们过了流行阶段。动视暴雪(ATVI)等游戏竞争对手取得巨大成功的一件事是将热门游戏转化为可持续的多游戏特许经营权，例如<i>职务看涨期权</i>和<i>魔兽世界/炉石。</i>在这方面，Sea相对未经测试，如果它不能持续<i>自由射击的</i>势头，它可能有麻烦了。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in e-commerce, there can be no doubt that Sea continues to expand rapidly. E-commerce revenue of $1.5 billion grew 134% y/y. The company also launched a wave of new markets over the past few months, per CEO Forrest Li's prepared remarks on the Q3 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在电子商务领域，毫无疑问，Sea继续快速扩张。电子商务收入达15亿美元，同比增长134%。根据首席执行官Forrest Li在第三季度收益看涨期权上准备好的讲话，该公司在过去几个月还推出了一波新市场：</blockquote></p><p> In the recent months, we launched Shopee in Poland, France, Spain and India. From time-to-time, we may test waters in new markets where we believe there may be an opportunity to use our experience in highly diverse environment, to reach underserved buyers and sellers. On the one hand, our core focus remains managing our efficient and sustainable growth in Southeast Asia, Thailand, and Brazil, where we have established and are continuing to grow our strong presents, serving local sellers to the buyers.\" Sea has not yet figured out, however, how to stem the bleeding in its e-commerce business, whose adjusted EBITDA losses more than doubled y/y to -$683.8 million. The 22% y/y growth in digital entertainment EBITDA to $715.1 million was completely consumed by the widening losses in e-commerce, and total adjusted EBITDA swung from a profit of $120.4 million in the prior-year Q3 to a -$165.5 million loss this quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个月，我们在波兰、法国、西班牙和印度推出了Shopee。我们可能会不时在新市场试水，我们认为在这些市场中可能有机会利用我们在高度多样化环境中的经验，接触服务不足的买家和卖家。一方面，我们的核心重点仍然是管理我们在东南亚、泰国和巴西的高效和可持续增长，我们已经在这些地区建立并正在继续发展我们强大的产品，为当地卖家和买家提供服务。”然而，Sea尚未想出如何阻止其电子商务业务的出血，其调整后EBITDA亏损同比增长一倍多，达到-6.838亿美元。数字娱乐EBITDA同比增长22%至7.151亿美元，完全被电子商务亏损扩大所消耗，调整后EBITDA总额从去年第三季度的利润1.204亿美元转为亏损1.655亿美元本季度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9e730082a517f9713d66feb1164907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In bull markets, investors may not mind this \"growth at all costs\" mindset. But as growth stocks continue to teeter heading into the final trading days of 2022, I think Sea's burgeoning losses are going to raise more eyebrows.</p><p><blockquote>在牛市中，投资者可能并不介意这种“不惜一切代价实现增长”的心态。但随着成长型股票在2022年最后几个交易日继续摇摇欲坠，我认为Sea的迅速亏损将引起更多人的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Key takeaways</p><p><blockquote>关键要点</blockquote></p><p> After a nearly unbroken two-year rally that at one point took Sea's stock up eightfold since the start of the pandemic, the air is finally starting to seep out of this overhyped balloon. I'm fully aware of Sea's merits as one of the leading and fastest-growing e-commerce brands in Southeast Asia, but I'm waiting until Sea drops below $200 (specifically, ~$170 is my target entry point) before initiating a position.</p><p><blockquote>自疫情爆发以来，Sea的股价经历了几乎不间断的两年上涨，一度上涨了八倍，但空气终于开始从这个过度炒作的气球中渗出。我充分意识到Sea作为东南亚领先且增长最快的电子商务品牌之一的优点，但我会等到Sea跌破200美元（具体来说，170美元左右是我的目标切入点）后再开始建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea: This Correction Will Pick Up Steam<blockquote>Sea：此次调整将加速</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea: This Correction Will Pick Up Steam<blockquote>Sea：此次调整将加速</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 10:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Sea have lost more than 40% from all-time highs, an expression of the company's overbloated valuation.</li> <li>Sea, commonly touted as the Amazon of Southeast Asia, continues to see massive losses piling up.</li> <li>Its most profitable division, gaming, saw an alarming slowdown in new user acquisition.</li> <li>Even after considering the most recent correction, Sea still looks expensive at ~10x forward revenue.</li> </ul> The wheel is coming undone for some of the stock market's most-bandwagoned and overhyped names. Chief among this list is international tech giant Sea (SE), an internet conglomerate based on Singapore that has often been referred to as the \"Amazon (AMZN) of Southeast Asia\".</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea的股价较历史高点下跌了40%以上，这表明该公司估值过高。</li><li>通常被誉为东南亚亚马逊的海洋继续遭受巨大损失。</li><li>其最赚钱的部门游戏部门的新用户获取速度出现了惊人的放缓。</li><li>即使考虑到最近的调整，Sea的预期收入仍然很昂贵，约为10倍。</li></ul>对于股市中一些最受欢迎和被过度炒作的名字来说，轮子正在松动。其中最主要的是国际科技巨头Sea(SE)，这是一家总部位于新加坡的互联网集团，通常被称为“东南亚的亚马逊(AMZN)”。</blockquote></p><p> That narrative got a lot of traction amid the pandemic, especially as very strict lockdowns in Sea's home country of Singapore as well as surrounding countries in Southeast Asia fueled a rapid and immediate contingent of gamers to Sea's platform. At one time, Sea's shares had multiplied <b>eightfold</b> since the start of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法在疫情引起了很大的关注，特别是当Sea的母国新加坡以及东南亚周边国家非常严格的封锁促使游戏玩家迅速涌入Sea的平台时。Sea的股价一度翻了一番<b>八倍</b>自从疫情开始以来。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with the risk-off attitude that has taken hold in the markets, investors are starting to change their tune in this stock. Whereas previously the market had rewarded Sea solely for its growth and without giving regard to its massive losses and the fact that the gaming division was essentially subsidizing growth initiatives at the rest of the company, the market is starting to wake up to the fact that <b>A)</b>Sea's dominance of Southeast Asia may not be a given, especially with so many internet startups vying for market share, and <b>B)</b>Sea's formula relies so completely on the cash flow produced by the gaming division that any slowdown looks frightening.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着市场上的避险态度，投资者开始改变对这只股票的看法。此前，市场仅因Sea的增长而奖励其，而没有考虑其巨额亏损以及游戏部门本质上补贴公司其他部门增长计划的事实，但市场开始意识到以下事实：<b>A）</b>Sea在东南亚的主导地位可能不是必然的，尤其是在如此多的互联网初创公司争夺市场份额的情况下，而且<b>(B)</b>Sea的公式完全依赖于游戏部门产生的现金流，因此任何放缓看起来都令人恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> Taking these risks into account, plus the general fact that investors have dramatically sold off tech/growth stocks over the past quarter, shares of Sea have lost <b>more than 40%</b>of their market value since hitting a peak above $370.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些风险，再加上投资者在过去一个季度大幅抛售科技/成长型股票的普遍事实，Sea的股价已经下跌<b>超过40%</b>自达到370美元以上的峰值以来，其市值有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> In late October, when Sea was trading at ~$350 and near peaks, I had issued a warning article that the stock was overhyped andlong overdue for a correction. Even after this sharp fall in the stock, I still remain cautious and<b>neutral</b>on Sea, and I think there's further pain ahead, especially if the market's rotation away from growth and into value persists.</p><p><blockquote>10月底，当Sea的交易价格约为350美元并接近峰值时，我发表了一篇警告文章，称该股被过度炒作，早就应该进行调整了。即使在股票大幅下跌之后，我仍然保持谨慎和<b>中立的</b>在海上，我认为未来还会有进一步的痛苦，特别是如果市场持续从增长转向价值的话。</blockquote></p><p> Valuation still remains expensive</p><p><blockquote>估值仍然昂贵</blockquote></p><p> The chief reason I'm still unenthused on Sea - even after the sharp 40% fall from peaks, Sea still trades at an unreasonably high valuation. At current ADR share prices near $213, Sea has a $118.02 billion market cap. After we net off the $12.17 billion of cash and $3.50 billion of debt on the company's most recent balance sheet, Sea's resulting <b>enterprise value is $109.35 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>我对Sea仍然不感兴趣的主要原因是——即使在从峰值大幅下跌40%之后，Sea的估值仍然高得不合理。按目前ADR股价接近213美元计算，Sea的市值为1180.2亿美元。在我们扣除公司最新资产负债表上的121.7亿美元现金和35亿美元债务后，Sea的结果<b>企业价值为1093.5亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea's revenues to grow 50% y/y to $14.21 billion (data from Yahoo Finance). Note that this represents quite sharp deceleration from current growth rates near 100% y/y, once the pandemic tailwinds are fully baked into prior-year comps.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计明年2022财年Sea的收入将同比增长50%，达到142.1亿美元（数据来自雅虎财经）。请注意，一旦大流行的顺风完全融入上一年的比较中，这意味着当前接近100%的同比增长率将大幅减速。</blockquote></p><p> At this revenue estimate, Sea trades at a valuation multiple of<b>7.7x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据这一收入估计，Sea的估值倍数为<b>7.7倍EV/22财年收入。</b></blockquote></p><p> Sure, this is much cheaper than the mid-teens valuation that Sea used to trade at. But when evaluating this valuation, keep a few things in mind:</p><p><blockquote>当然，这比Sea过去十几岁左右的估值便宜得多。但在评估这个估值时，请记住几点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Sea's revenue skews heavily toward e-commerce, which is low-margin.</b>Non-gaming revenues contributed to 57% of overall revenue; and non-gaming IFRS gross margins were only 14% (both metrics as of YTD 2021).</li> <li><b>Sea is hardly the only game in town.</b>While certainly the most recognizable and internationally traded of Southeast Asia's internet giants, Sea is quite significant competition versus the likes of Tokopedia and Lazada.</li> <li><b>Some growth premium is of course warranted for a company growing as quickly as Sea,</b>but note that Amazon's forward revenue multiple is only 3.6x, less than half of Sea's</li> </ul> <b>The bottom line here:</b> valuation, plus the possibility of continued fundamental risks which we'll discuss in the next section, make me quite nervous that Sea's correction still has legs. I'd be more interested in picking up this stock if it fell to ~$170 (~6x forward revenue, and ~20% further downside from current levels), but until then I'm remaining on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Sea的收入严重偏向利润率较低的电子商务。</b>非博彩收入占总收入的57%；非游戏IFRS毛利率仅为14%（这两个指标截至2021年年初至今）。</li><li><b>海洋并不是镇上唯一的游戏。</b>虽然Sea无疑是东南亚互联网巨头中知名度最高、交易量最大的，但与Tokopedia和Lazada等公司相比，Sea是相当大的竞争对手。</li><li><b>对于像Sea这样快速增长的公司来说，一定的增长溢价当然是有保证的，</b>但请注意，亚马逊的远期收入倍数仅为3.6倍，不到Sea的一半</li></ul><b>底线是：</b>估值，加上我们将在下一节讨论的持续基本面风险的可能性，让我对Sea的调整仍然存在感到非常紧张。如果这只股票跌至170美元左右（预期收入约6倍，较当前水平进一步下跌约20%），我会更有兴趣买入它，但在此之前我仍保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> The fundamental risks investors should be tracking</p><p><blockquote>投资者应跟踪的基本风险</blockquote></p><p> Unlike many other tech stocks this quarter, Sea's correction was not just an expression of weakened sentiment toward growth stocks, but also a reflection of softening fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>与本季度许多其他科技股不同，Sea的调整不仅是对成长型股票情绪减弱的表现，也反映了基本面疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We've already noted how critical Sea's gaming division is to the overall operation of the company - while no longer the majority of revenue, it is the most profitable division that helps to finance losses in the rest of the company's loss-leading e-commerce arm. Sea's gaming operations saw dramatic growth during the pandemic as play time soared and willingness to pay increased - but now, amid normalization and competition versus other types of entertainment, Sea's digital entertainment base is starting to show softness.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经注意到Sea的游戏部门对公司的整体运营有多么重要——虽然不再是收入的大部分，但它是利润最高的部门，有助于弥补公司其他亏损电子商务部门的损失。臂。随着游戏时间飙升和支付意愿增强，Sea的游戏业务在疫情期间出现了急剧增长，但现在，在正常化和与其他类型娱乐的竞争中，Sea的数字娱乐基础开始显示出疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>看看下面的图表：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cfbd548965e8dae1aa3c7ef8b0b8e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For several quarters, Sea had been adding 30-40 million net-new quarterly active users. In fact, during the preceding quarter, Sea had added a massive ~76 million net-new QAUs. As long as Sea's gaming business continues to grow at a fast enough pace to absorb e-commerce's swelling losses, Sea's formula worked.</p><p><blockquote>几个季度以来，Sea的季度净新增活跃用户为3000万至4000万。事实上，在上一季度，Sea新增了约7600万个净新增QAU。只要Sea的游戏业务继续以足够快的速度增长，以吸收电子商务不断膨胀的亏损，Sea的公式就会奏效。</blockquote></p><p> But this slowdown to barely any (~4 million) net-new QAU adds in Q3 is alarming. Even more so is the fact that paid users only saw a 1 million sequential increase. The good news is that Sea's paid user ratio, at 12.8% this quarter, is the highest it has ever been in the company's lifetime. But we do worry if willingness to pay for gaming, and gaming activity in general, will decline in the post-pandemic period once schools and offices fully return to normal.</p><p><blockquote>但第三季度净新增QAU数量几乎没有（约400万），这令人担忧。更重要的是，付费用户仅环比增长了100万。好消息是，Sea本季度的付费用户比例为12.8%，是该公司历史上最高的。但我们确实担心，一旦学校和办公室完全恢复正常，在大流行后的时期，支付游戏和游戏活动的意愿是否会下降。</blockquote></p><p> For over a year now, a lot of Sea's gaming success has been anchored to its internally-developed <i>Free Fire</i> title. Yet games, of course, have a shelf life of when they pass the phase of popularity. One thing that gaming rivals like Activision Blizzard (ATVI) have been tremendously successful at is converting hit titles into sustainable, multi-game franchises like <i>Call of Duty</i>and<i>World of Warcraft/Hearthstone.</i>In this regard, Sea is relatively untested, and if it fails at sustaining<i>Free Fire's</i>momentum, it could be in trouble.</p><p><blockquote>一年多来，Sea游戏的成功很大程度上归功于其内部开发的<i>自由射击</i>标题。然而，游戏当然有一个保质期，当它们过了流行阶段。动视暴雪(ATVI)等游戏竞争对手取得巨大成功的一件事是将热门游戏转化为可持续的多游戏特许经营权，例如<i>职务看涨期权</i>和<i>魔兽世界/炉石。</i>在这方面，Sea相对未经测试，如果它不能持续<i>自由射击的</i>势头，它可能有麻烦了。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in e-commerce, there can be no doubt that Sea continues to expand rapidly. E-commerce revenue of $1.5 billion grew 134% y/y. The company also launched a wave of new markets over the past few months, per CEO Forrest Li's prepared remarks on the Q3 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在电子商务领域，毫无疑问，Sea继续快速扩张。电子商务收入达15亿美元，同比增长134%。根据首席执行官Forrest Li在第三季度收益看涨期权上准备好的讲话，该公司在过去几个月还推出了一波新市场：</blockquote></p><p> In the recent months, we launched Shopee in Poland, France, Spain and India. From time-to-time, we may test waters in new markets where we believe there may be an opportunity to use our experience in highly diverse environment, to reach underserved buyers and sellers. On the one hand, our core focus remains managing our efficient and sustainable growth in Southeast Asia, Thailand, and Brazil, where we have established and are continuing to grow our strong presents, serving local sellers to the buyers.\" Sea has not yet figured out, however, how to stem the bleeding in its e-commerce business, whose adjusted EBITDA losses more than doubled y/y to -$683.8 million. The 22% y/y growth in digital entertainment EBITDA to $715.1 million was completely consumed by the widening losses in e-commerce, and total adjusted EBITDA swung from a profit of $120.4 million in the prior-year Q3 to a -$165.5 million loss this quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个月，我们在波兰、法国、西班牙和印度推出了Shopee。我们可能会不时在新市场试水，我们认为在这些市场中可能有机会利用我们在高度多样化环境中的经验，接触服务不足的买家和卖家。一方面，我们的核心重点仍然是管理我们在东南亚、泰国和巴西的高效和可持续增长，我们已经在这些地区建立并正在继续发展我们强大的产品，为当地卖家和买家提供服务。”然而，Sea尚未想出如何阻止其电子商务业务的出血，其调整后EBITDA亏损同比增长一倍多，达到-6.838亿美元。数字娱乐EBITDA同比增长22%至7.151亿美元，完全被电子商务亏损扩大所消耗，调整后EBITDA总额从去年第三季度的利润1.204亿美元转为亏损1.655亿美元本季度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9e730082a517f9713d66feb1164907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In bull markets, investors may not mind this \"growth at all costs\" mindset. But as growth stocks continue to teeter heading into the final trading days of 2022, I think Sea's burgeoning losses are going to raise more eyebrows.</p><p><blockquote>在牛市中，投资者可能并不介意这种“不惜一切代价实现增长”的心态。但随着成长型股票在2022年最后几个交易日继续摇摇欲坠，我认为Sea的迅速亏损将引起更多人的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Key takeaways</p><p><blockquote>关键要点</blockquote></p><p> After a nearly unbroken two-year rally that at one point took Sea's stock up eightfold since the start of the pandemic, the air is finally starting to seep out of this overhyped balloon. I'm fully aware of Sea's merits as one of the leading and fastest-growing e-commerce brands in Southeast Asia, but I'm waiting until Sea drops below $200 (specifically, ~$170 is my target entry point) before initiating a position.</p><p><blockquote>自疫情爆发以来，Sea的股价经历了几乎不间断的两年上涨，一度上涨了八倍，但空气终于开始从这个过度炒作的气球中渗出。我充分意识到Sea作为东南亚领先且增长最快的电子商务品牌之一的优点，但我会等到Sea跌破200美元（具体来说，170美元左右是我的目标切入点）后再开始建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475903-sea-se-stock-correction-pick-up-steam\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475903-sea-se-stock-correction-pick-up-steam","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199933858","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have lost more than 40% from all-time highs, an expression of the company's overbloated valuation.\nSea, commonly touted as the Amazon of Southeast Asia, continues to see massive losses piling up.\nIts most profitable division, gaming, saw an alarming slowdown in new user acquisition.\nEven after considering the most recent correction, Sea still looks expensive at ~10x forward revenue.\n\nThe wheel is coming undone for some of the stock market's most-bandwagoned and overhyped names. Chief among this list is international tech giant Sea (SE), an internet conglomerate based on Singapore that has often been referred to as the \"Amazon (AMZN) of Southeast Asia\".\nThat narrative got a lot of traction amid the pandemic, especially as very strict lockdowns in Sea's home country of Singapore as well as surrounding countries in Southeast Asia fueled a rapid and immediate contingent of gamers to Sea's platform. At one time, Sea's shares had multiplied eightfold since the start of the pandemic.\nYet with the risk-off attitude that has taken hold in the markets, investors are starting to change their tune in this stock. Whereas previously the market had rewarded Sea solely for its growth and without giving regard to its massive losses and the fact that the gaming division was essentially subsidizing growth initiatives at the rest of the company, the market is starting to wake up to the fact that A)Sea's dominance of Southeast Asia may not be a given, especially with so many internet startups vying for market share, and B)Sea's formula relies so completely on the cash flow produced by the gaming division that any slowdown looks frightening.\nTaking these risks into account, plus the general fact that investors have dramatically sold off tech/growth stocks over the past quarter, shares of Sea have lost more than 40%of their market value since hitting a peak above $370.\n\nIn late October, when Sea was trading at ~$350 and near peaks, I had issued a warning article that the stock was overhyped andlong overdue for a correction. Even after this sharp fall in the stock, I still remain cautious andneutralon Sea, and I think there's further pain ahead, especially if the market's rotation away from growth and into value persists.\nValuation still remains expensive\nThe chief reason I'm still unenthused on Sea - even after the sharp 40% fall from peaks, Sea still trades at an unreasonably high valuation. At current ADR share prices near $213, Sea has a $118.02 billion market cap. After we net off the $12.17 billion of cash and $3.50 billion of debt on the company's most recent balance sheet, Sea's resulting enterprise value is $109.35 billion.\nFor next year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea's revenues to grow 50% y/y to $14.21 billion (data from Yahoo Finance). Note that this represents quite sharp deceleration from current growth rates near 100% y/y, once the pandemic tailwinds are fully baked into prior-year comps.\nAt this revenue estimate, Sea trades at a valuation multiple of7.7x EV/FY22 revenue.\nSure, this is much cheaper than the mid-teens valuation that Sea used to trade at. But when evaluating this valuation, keep a few things in mind:\n\nSea's revenue skews heavily toward e-commerce, which is low-margin.Non-gaming revenues contributed to 57% of overall revenue; and non-gaming IFRS gross margins were only 14% (both metrics as of YTD 2021).\nSea is hardly the only game in town.While certainly the most recognizable and internationally traded of Southeast Asia's internet giants, Sea is quite significant competition versus the likes of Tokopedia and Lazada.\nSome growth premium is of course warranted for a company growing as quickly as Sea,but note that Amazon's forward revenue multiple is only 3.6x, less than half of Sea's\n\nThe bottom line here: valuation, plus the possibility of continued fundamental risks which we'll discuss in the next section, make me quite nervous that Sea's correction still has legs. I'd be more interested in picking up this stock if it fell to ~$170 (~6x forward revenue, and ~20% further downside from current levels), but until then I'm remaining on the sidelines.\nThe fundamental risks investors should be tracking\nUnlike many other tech stocks this quarter, Sea's correction was not just an expression of weakened sentiment toward growth stocks, but also a reflection of softening fundamentals.\nWe've already noted how critical Sea's gaming division is to the overall operation of the company - while no longer the majority of revenue, it is the most profitable division that helps to finance losses in the rest of the company's loss-leading e-commerce arm. Sea's gaming operations saw dramatic growth during the pandemic as play time soared and willingness to pay increased - but now, amid normalization and competition versus other types of entertainment, Sea's digital entertainment base is starting to show softness.\nTake a look at the chart below:\nFor several quarters, Sea had been adding 30-40 million net-new quarterly active users. In fact, during the preceding quarter, Sea had added a massive ~76 million net-new QAUs. As long as Sea's gaming business continues to grow at a fast enough pace to absorb e-commerce's swelling losses, Sea's formula worked.\nBut this slowdown to barely any (~4 million) net-new QAU adds in Q3 is alarming. Even more so is the fact that paid users only saw a 1 million sequential increase. The good news is that Sea's paid user ratio, at 12.8% this quarter, is the highest it has ever been in the company's lifetime. But we do worry if willingness to pay for gaming, and gaming activity in general, will decline in the post-pandemic period once schools and offices fully return to normal.\nFor over a year now, a lot of Sea's gaming success has been anchored to its internally-developed Free Fire title. Yet games, of course, have a shelf life of when they pass the phase of popularity. One thing that gaming rivals like Activision Blizzard (ATVI) have been tremendously successful at is converting hit titles into sustainable, multi-game franchises like Call of DutyandWorld of Warcraft/Hearthstone.In this regard, Sea is relatively untested, and if it fails at sustainingFree Fire'smomentum, it could be in trouble.\nMeanwhile, in e-commerce, there can be no doubt that Sea continues to expand rapidly. E-commerce revenue of $1.5 billion grew 134% y/y. The company also launched a wave of new markets over the past few months, per CEO Forrest Li's prepared remarks on the Q3 earnings call:\n\n In the recent months, we launched Shopee in Poland, France, Spain and India. From time-to-time, we may test waters in new markets where we believe there may be an opportunity to use our experience in highly diverse environment, to reach underserved buyers and sellers. On the one hand, our core focus remains managing our efficient and sustainable growth in Southeast Asia, Thailand, and Brazil, where we have established and are continuing to grow our strong presents, serving local sellers to the buyers.\"\n\nSea has not yet figured out, however, how to stem the bleeding in its e-commerce business, whose adjusted EBITDA losses more than doubled y/y to -$683.8 million. The 22% y/y growth in digital entertainment EBITDA to $715.1 million was completely consumed by the widening losses in e-commerce, and total adjusted EBITDA swung from a profit of $120.4 million in the prior-year Q3 to a -$165.5 million loss this quarter.\nIn bull markets, investors may not mind this \"growth at all costs\" mindset. But as growth stocks continue to teeter heading into the final trading days of 2022, I think Sea's burgeoning losses are going to raise more eyebrows.\nKey takeaways\nAfter a nearly unbroken two-year rally that at one point took Sea's stock up eightfold since the start of the pandemic, the air is finally starting to seep out of this overhyped balloon. I'm fully aware of Sea's merits as one of the leading and fastest-growing e-commerce brands in Southeast Asia, but I'm waiting until Sea drops below $200 (specifically, ~$170 is my target entry point) before initiating a position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2217,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":62,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/693347369"}
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