Hayz
2021-12-20
OKAY, below $200 .... keep hoping, unless "Black Swan" or something .....
Sea: This Correction Will Pick Up Steam<blockquote>Sea：这次修正将会加速</blockquote>
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Chief among this list is international tech giant Sea (SE), an internet conglomerate based on Singapore that has often been referred to as the \"Amazon (AMZN) of Southeast Asia\".</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea 股价已较历史高点下跌超过 40%，这反映了该公司估值过高。</li><li>Sea 通常被誉为东南亚的亚马逊，但持续出现巨额亏损。</li><li>其最赚钱的部门游戏部门在新用户获取方面出现了惊人的放缓。</li><li>即使考虑到最近的修正，Sea 看起来仍然昂贵，约为远期收入的 10 倍。</li></ul>对于股票市场上一些最时髦、被过度炒作的名字来说，车轮即将脱落。这份名单中的佼佼者是国际科技巨头 Sea (SE)，这是一家总部位于新加坡的互联网企业集团，通常被称为“东南亚的亚马逊 (AMZN)”。</blockquote></p><p> That narrative got a lot of traction amid the pandemic, especially as very strict lockdowns in Sea's home country of Singapore as well as surrounding countries in Southeast Asia fueled a rapid and immediate contingent of gamers to Sea's platform. At one time, Sea's shares had multiplied <b>eightfold</b> since the start of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法在疫情期间获得了很大的吸引力，特别是当Sea的祖国新加坡以及东南亚周边国家非常严格的封锁促使Sea的平台上迅速而直接的游戏玩家队伍。Sea 的股价一度成倍增长<b>八倍</b>自从疫情开始。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with the risk-off attitude that has taken hold in the markets, investors are starting to change their tune in this stock. Whereas previously the market had rewarded Sea solely for its growth and without giving regard to its massive losses and the fact that the gaming division was essentially subsidizing growth initiatives at the rest of the company, the market is starting to wake up to the fact that <b>A)</b>Sea's dominance of Southeast Asia may not be a given, especially with so many internet startups vying for market share, and <b>B)</b>Sea's formula relies so completely on the cash flow produced by the gaming division that any slowdown looks frightening.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着规避风险的态度在市场上占据主导地位，投资者开始改变对这只股票的看法。此前，市场仅仅因为 Sea 的增长而奖励它，而没有考虑到其巨额亏损以及博彩部门基本上是在补贴公司其他部门的增长举措这一事实，但市场开始意识到这样一个事实：<b>(a)</b>Sea在东南亚的主导地位可能不是理所当然的，尤其是在如此多的互联网初创公司争夺市场份额的情况下，以及<b>乙）</b>Sea 的公式完全依赖于博彩部门产生的现金流，因此任何放缓看起来都令人恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> Taking these risks into account, plus the general fact that investors have dramatically sold off tech/growth stocks over the past quarter, shares of Sea have lost <b>more than 40%</b>of their market value since hitting a peak above $370.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些风险，再加上投资者在过去一个季度大幅抛售科技/成长型股票的普遍事实，Sea 的股价已经下跌<b>40%以上</b>自达到 370 美元以上的峰值以来，其市值有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> In late October, when Sea was trading at ~$350 and near peaks, I had issued a warning article that the stock was overhyped andlong overdue for a correction. Even after this sharp fall in the stock, I still remain cautious and<b>neutral</b>on Sea, and I think there's further pain ahead, especially if the market's rotation away from growth and into value persists.</p><p><blockquote>10 月下旬，当 Sea 的交易价格约为 350 美元并接近峰值时，我发表了一篇警告文章，称该股被过度炒作，早就应该进行调整了。即使在股票大幅下跌之后，我仍然保持谨慎和<b>中立的</b>在海上，我认为未来还会有更多的痛苦，特别是如果市场继续从增长转向价值的话。</blockquote></p><p> Valuation still remains expensive</p><p><blockquote>估值仍然昂贵</blockquote></p><p> The chief reason I'm still unenthused on Sea - even after the sharp 40% fall from peaks, Sea still trades at an unreasonably high valuation. At current ADR share prices near $213, Sea has a $118.02 billion market cap. After we net off the $12.17 billion of cash and $3.50 billion of debt on the company's most recent balance sheet, Sea's resulting <b>enterprise value is $109.35 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>我仍然对 Sea 不感兴趣的主要原因是——即使在从峰值大幅下跌 40% 之后，Sea 的估值仍然过高。按目前接近 213 美元的 ADR 股价计算，Sea 的市值为 1180.2 亿美元。在公司最新资产负债表上扣除 121.7 亿美元现金和 35 亿美元债务后，Sea 的结果<b>企业价值1093.5亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea's revenues to grow 50% y/y to $14.21 billion (data from Yahoo Finance). Note that this represents quite sharp deceleration from current growth rates near 100% y/y, once the pandemic tailwinds are fully baked into prior-year comps.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计明年 2022 财年 Sea 的收入将同比增长 50%，达到 142.1 亿美元（数据来自雅虎财经）。请注意，一旦疫情的顺风完全融入上一年的比较，这代表着当前接近100%的同比增长率急剧放缓。</blockquote></p><p> At this revenue estimate, Sea trades at a valuation multiple of<b>7.7x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据该收入估计，Sea 的估值倍数为<b>7.7 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b></blockquote></p><p> Sure, this is much cheaper than the mid-teens valuation that Sea used to trade at. But when evaluating this valuation, keep a few things in mind:</p><p><blockquote>当然，这比 Sea 过去交易的十几岁左右的估值便宜得多。但在评估此估值时，请记住以下几点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Sea's revenue skews heavily toward e-commerce, which is low-margin.</b>Non-gaming revenues contributed to 57% of overall revenue; and non-gaming IFRS gross margins were only 14% (both metrics as of YTD 2021).</li> <li><b>Sea is hardly the only game in town.</b>While certainly the most recognizable and internationally traded of Southeast Asia's internet giants, Sea is quite significant competition versus the likes of Tokopedia and Lazada.</li> <li><b>Some growth premium is of course warranted for a company growing as quickly as Sea,</b>but note that Amazon's forward revenue multiple is only 3.6x, less than half of Sea's</li> </ul> <b>The bottom line here:</b> valuation, plus the possibility of continued fundamental risks which we'll discuss in the next section, make me quite nervous that Sea's correction still has legs. I'd be more interested in picking up this stock if it fell to ~$170 (~6x forward revenue, and ~20% further downside from current levels), but until then I'm remaining on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Sea 的收入严重偏向利润率较低的电子商务。</b>非游戏收入占总收入的57%；非博彩 IFRS 毛利率仅为 14%（这两个指标均截至 2021 年年初至今）。</li><li><b>海洋并不是镇上唯一的游戏。</b>虽然Sea无疑是东南亚最知名和国际贸易的互联网巨头，但与Tokopedia和Lazada等公司相比，Sea是一个相当大的竞争对手。</li><li><b>对于一个发展如海的公司来说，一定的增长溢价当然是有道理的，</b>但请注意，亚马逊的远期收入倍数仅为 3.6 倍，不到 Sea 的一半</li></ul><b>底线是：</b>估值，加上我们将在下一节讨论的持续基本面风险的可能性，让我非常紧张，因为 Sea 的调整仍然存在。如果这只股票跌至约 170 美元（远期收益约 6 倍，较当前水平进一步下跌约 20%），我会更有兴趣买入这只股票，但在那之前我仍处于观望状态。</blockquote></p><p> The fundamental risks investors should be tracking</p><p><blockquote>投资者应跟踪的基本风险</blockquote></p><p> Unlike many other tech stocks this quarter, Sea's correction was not just an expression of weakened sentiment toward growth stocks, but also a reflection of softening fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>与本季度许多其他科技股不同，Sea 的回调不仅体现了对成长型股票的情绪减弱，也反映了基本面的疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We've already noted how critical Sea's gaming division is to the overall operation of the company - while no longer the majority of revenue, it is the most profitable division that helps to finance losses in the rest of the company's loss-leading e-commerce arm. Sea's gaming operations saw dramatic growth during the pandemic as play time soared and willingness to pay increased - but now, amid normalization and competition versus other types of entertainment, Sea's digital entertainment base is starting to show softness.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经注意到 Sea 的游戏部门对公司的整体运营有多么重要——虽然不再是收入的大部分，但它是最赚钱的部门，有助于弥补公司亏损领先的电子商务部门其他部门的亏损。随着游戏时间激增和付费意愿增加，Sea 的游戏业务在大流行期间出现了大幅增长，但现在，在正常化和与其他类型娱乐的竞争中，Sea 的数字娱乐基础开始显示出疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>请看下图：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cfbd548965e8dae1aa3c7ef8b0b8e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For several quarters, Sea had been adding 30-40 million net-new quarterly active users. In fact, during the preceding quarter, Sea had added a massive ~76 million net-new QAUs. As long as Sea's gaming business continues to grow at a fast enough pace to absorb e-commerce's swelling losses, Sea's formula worked.</p><p><blockquote>几个季度以来，Sea 一直在新增 3000 万至 4000 万季度活跃用户。事实上，在上一季度，Sea 新增了约 7600 万个 QAU。只要 Sea 的游戏业务继续以足够快的速度增长，以吸收电子商务不断扩大的损失，Sea 的公式就奏效了。</blockquote></p><p> But this slowdown to barely any (~4 million) net-new QAU adds in Q3 is alarming. Even more so is the fact that paid users only saw a 1 million sequential increase. The good news is that Sea's paid user ratio, at 12.8% this quarter, is the highest it has ever been in the company's lifetime. But we do worry if willingness to pay for gaming, and gaming activity in general, will decline in the post-pandemic period once schools and offices fully return to normal.</p><p><blockquote>但第三季度几乎没有（约 400 万）净新增 QAU 新增数量的放缓令人担忧。更重要的是，付费用户仅连续增加了100万。好消息是，Sea 本季度的付费用户比例为 12.8%，是该公司有史以来的最高水平。但我们确实担心，一旦学校和办公室完全恢复正常，支付游戏费用的意愿以及一般的游戏活动是否会在后疫情时期下降。</blockquote></p><p> For over a year now, a lot of Sea's gaming success has been anchored to its internally-developed <i>Free Fire</i> title. Yet games, of course, have a shelf life of when they pass the phase of popularity. One thing that gaming rivals like Activision Blizzard (ATVI) have been tremendously successful at is converting hit titles into sustainable, multi-game franchises like <i>Call of Duty</i>and<i>World of Warcraft/Hearthstone.</i>In this regard, Sea is relatively untested, and if it fails at sustaining<i>Free Fire's</i>momentum, it could be in trouble.</p><p><blockquote>一年多来，Sea 的游戏成功很大程度上取决于其内部开发的<i>自由射击</i>标题。然而，游戏当然有一个保质期，当它们过了流行阶段。动视暴雪 (ATVI) 等游戏竞争对手取得了巨大成功的一件事是将热门游戏转化为可持续的多游戏系列，例如<i>值班看涨期权</i>和<i>魔兽世界/炉石传说。</i>在这方面，海洋相对未经测试，如果它不能维持<i>自由射击</i>势头，它可能有麻烦了。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in e-commerce, there can be no doubt that Sea continues to expand rapidly. E-commerce revenue of $1.5 billion grew 134% y/y. The company also launched a wave of new markets over the past few months, per CEO Forrest Li's prepared remarks on the Q3 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在电子商务领域，Sea 无疑继续快速扩张。15亿美元的电子商务收入同比增长134%。根据首席执行官 Forrest Li 在第三季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话，该公司在过去几个月还推出了一波新市场：</blockquote></p><p> In the recent months, we launched Shopee in Poland, France, Spain and India. From time-to-time, we may test waters in new markets where we believe there may be an opportunity to use our experience in highly diverse environment, to reach underserved buyers and sellers. On the one hand, our core focus remains managing our efficient and sustainable growth in Southeast Asia, Thailand, and Brazil, where we have established and are continuing to grow our strong presents, serving local sellers to the buyers.\" Sea has not yet figured out, however, how to stem the bleeding in its e-commerce business, whose adjusted EBITDA losses more than doubled y/y to -$683.8 million. The 22% y/y growth in digital entertainment EBITDA to $715.1 million was completely consumed by the widening losses in e-commerce, and total adjusted EBITDA swung from a profit of $120.4 million in the prior-year Q3 to a -$165.5 million loss this quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个月，我们在波兰、法国、西班牙和印度推出了Shopee。我们可能会不时在新市场试水，我们相信有机会在高度多元化的环境中运用我们的经验，接触服务不足的买家和卖家。一方面，我们的核心重点仍然是管理我们在东南亚、泰国和巴西的高效和可持续增长，我们已经在这些国家建立并继续发展我们强大的产品，为当地卖家和买家提供服务。”然而，Sea 尚未弄清楚如何阻止其电子商务业务的流失，其调整后的 EBITDA 亏损同比增长一倍多，达到 -6.838 亿美元。数字娱乐 EBITDA 同比增长 22% 至 7.151 亿美元，但完全被电子商务亏损不断扩大所吞噬，调整后 EBITDA 总额从上年第三季度的利润 1.204 亿美元转为亏损 1.655 亿美元本季度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9e730082a517f9713d66feb1164907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In bull markets, investors may not mind this \"growth at all costs\" mindset. But as growth stocks continue to teeter heading into the final trading days of 2022, I think Sea's burgeoning losses are going to raise more eyebrows.</p><p><blockquote>在牛市中，投资者可能不介意这种“不惜一切代价增长”的心态。但随着成长型股票在 2022 年最后几个交易日继续摇摇欲坠，我认为 Sea 不断飙升的亏损将引起更多的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Key takeaways</p><p><blockquote>主要要点</blockquote></p><p> After a nearly unbroken two-year rally that at one point took Sea's stock up eightfold since the start of the pandemic, the air is finally starting to seep out of this overhyped balloon. I'm fully aware of Sea's merits as one of the leading and fastest-growing e-commerce brands in Southeast Asia, but I'm waiting until Sea drops below $200 (specifically, ~$170 is my target entry point) before initiating a position.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行开始以来，Sea 的股价几乎没有中断过两年的反弹，一度上涨了八倍，但空气终于开始从这个过度炒作的气球中渗出。我充分意识到Sea作为东南亚领先和增长最快的电子商务品牌之一的优点，但我会等到Sea跌破200美元（具体来说，约170美元是我的目标切入点）后再开始建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea: This Correction Will Pick Up Steam<blockquote>Sea：这次修正将会加速</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea: This Correction Will Pick Up Steam<blockquote>Sea：这次修正将会加速</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 10:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Sea have lost more than 40% from all-time highs, an expression of the company's overbloated valuation.</li> <li>Sea, commonly touted as the Amazon of Southeast Asia, continues to see massive losses piling up.</li> <li>Its most profitable division, gaming, saw an alarming slowdown in new user acquisition.</li> <li>Even after considering the most recent correction, Sea still looks expensive at ~10x forward revenue.</li> </ul> The wheel is coming undone for some of the stock market's most-bandwagoned and overhyped names. Chief among this list is international tech giant Sea (SE), an internet conglomerate based on Singapore that has often been referred to as the \"Amazon (AMZN) of Southeast Asia\".</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea 股价已较历史高点下跌超过 40%，这反映了该公司估值过高。</li><li>Sea 通常被誉为东南亚的亚马逊，但持续出现巨额亏损。</li><li>其最赚钱的部门游戏部门在新用户获取方面出现了惊人的放缓。</li><li>即使考虑到最近的修正，Sea 看起来仍然昂贵，约为远期收入的 10 倍。</li></ul>对于股票市场上一些最时髦、被过度炒作的名字来说，车轮即将脱落。这份名单中的佼佼者是国际科技巨头 Sea (SE)，这是一家总部位于新加坡的互联网企业集团，通常被称为“东南亚的亚马逊 (AMZN)”。</blockquote></p><p> That narrative got a lot of traction amid the pandemic, especially as very strict lockdowns in Sea's home country of Singapore as well as surrounding countries in Southeast Asia fueled a rapid and immediate contingent of gamers to Sea's platform. At one time, Sea's shares had multiplied <b>eightfold</b> since the start of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法在疫情期间获得了很大的吸引力，特别是当Sea的祖国新加坡以及东南亚周边国家非常严格的封锁促使Sea的平台上迅速而直接的游戏玩家队伍。Sea 的股价一度成倍增长<b>八倍</b>自从疫情开始。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with the risk-off attitude that has taken hold in the markets, investors are starting to change their tune in this stock. Whereas previously the market had rewarded Sea solely for its growth and without giving regard to its massive losses and the fact that the gaming division was essentially subsidizing growth initiatives at the rest of the company, the market is starting to wake up to the fact that <b>A)</b>Sea's dominance of Southeast Asia may not be a given, especially with so many internet startups vying for market share, and <b>B)</b>Sea's formula relies so completely on the cash flow produced by the gaming division that any slowdown looks frightening.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着规避风险的态度在市场上占据主导地位，投资者开始改变对这只股票的看法。此前，市场仅仅因为 Sea 的增长而奖励它，而没有考虑到其巨额亏损以及博彩部门基本上是在补贴公司其他部门的增长举措这一事实，但市场开始意识到这样一个事实：<b>(a)</b>Sea在东南亚的主导地位可能不是理所当然的，尤其是在如此多的互联网初创公司争夺市场份额的情况下，以及<b>乙）</b>Sea 的公式完全依赖于博彩部门产生的现金流，因此任何放缓看起来都令人恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> Taking these risks into account, plus the general fact that investors have dramatically sold off tech/growth stocks over the past quarter, shares of Sea have lost <b>more than 40%</b>of their market value since hitting a peak above $370.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些风险，再加上投资者在过去一个季度大幅抛售科技/成长型股票的普遍事实，Sea 的股价已经下跌<b>40%以上</b>自达到 370 美元以上的峰值以来，其市值有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> In late October, when Sea was trading at ~$350 and near peaks, I had issued a warning article that the stock was overhyped andlong overdue for a correction. Even after this sharp fall in the stock, I still remain cautious and<b>neutral</b>on Sea, and I think there's further pain ahead, especially if the market's rotation away from growth and into value persists.</p><p><blockquote>10 月下旬，当 Sea 的交易价格约为 350 美元并接近峰值时，我发表了一篇警告文章，称该股被过度炒作，早就应该进行调整了。即使在股票大幅下跌之后，我仍然保持谨慎和<b>中立的</b>在海上，我认为未来还会有更多的痛苦，特别是如果市场继续从增长转向价值的话。</blockquote></p><p> Valuation still remains expensive</p><p><blockquote>估值仍然昂贵</blockquote></p><p> The chief reason I'm still unenthused on Sea - even after the sharp 40% fall from peaks, Sea still trades at an unreasonably high valuation. At current ADR share prices near $213, Sea has a $118.02 billion market cap. After we net off the $12.17 billion of cash and $3.50 billion of debt on the company's most recent balance sheet, Sea's resulting <b>enterprise value is $109.35 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>我仍然对 Sea 不感兴趣的主要原因是——即使在从峰值大幅下跌 40% 之后，Sea 的估值仍然过高。按目前接近 213 美元的 ADR 股价计算，Sea 的市值为 1180.2 亿美元。在公司最新资产负债表上扣除 121.7 亿美元现金和 35 亿美元债务后，Sea 的结果<b>企业价值1093.5亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea's revenues to grow 50% y/y to $14.21 billion (data from Yahoo Finance). Note that this represents quite sharp deceleration from current growth rates near 100% y/y, once the pandemic tailwinds are fully baked into prior-year comps.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计明年 2022 财年 Sea 的收入将同比增长 50%，达到 142.1 亿美元（数据来自雅虎财经）。请注意，一旦疫情的顺风完全融入上一年的比较，这代表着当前接近100%的同比增长率急剧放缓。</blockquote></p><p> At this revenue estimate, Sea trades at a valuation multiple of<b>7.7x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据该收入估计，Sea 的估值倍数为<b>7.7 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b></blockquote></p><p> Sure, this is much cheaper than the mid-teens valuation that Sea used to trade at. But when evaluating this valuation, keep a few things in mind:</p><p><blockquote>当然，这比 Sea 过去交易的十几岁左右的估值便宜得多。但在评估此估值时，请记住以下几点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Sea's revenue skews heavily toward e-commerce, which is low-margin.</b>Non-gaming revenues contributed to 57% of overall revenue; and non-gaming IFRS gross margins were only 14% (both metrics as of YTD 2021).</li> <li><b>Sea is hardly the only game in town.</b>While certainly the most recognizable and internationally traded of Southeast Asia's internet giants, Sea is quite significant competition versus the likes of Tokopedia and Lazada.</li> <li><b>Some growth premium is of course warranted for a company growing as quickly as Sea,</b>but note that Amazon's forward revenue multiple is only 3.6x, less than half of Sea's</li> </ul> <b>The bottom line here:</b> valuation, plus the possibility of continued fundamental risks which we'll discuss in the next section, make me quite nervous that Sea's correction still has legs. I'd be more interested in picking up this stock if it fell to ~$170 (~6x forward revenue, and ~20% further downside from current levels), but until then I'm remaining on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Sea 的收入严重偏向利润率较低的电子商务。</b>非游戏收入占总收入的57%；非博彩 IFRS 毛利率仅为 14%（这两个指标均截至 2021 年年初至今）。</li><li><b>海洋并不是镇上唯一的游戏。</b>虽然Sea无疑是东南亚最知名和国际贸易的互联网巨头，但与Tokopedia和Lazada等公司相比，Sea是一个相当大的竞争对手。</li><li><b>对于一个发展如海的公司来说，一定的增长溢价当然是有道理的，</b>但请注意，亚马逊的远期收入倍数仅为 3.6 倍，不到 Sea 的一半</li></ul><b>底线是：</b>估值，加上我们将在下一节讨论的持续基本面风险的可能性，让我非常紧张，因为 Sea 的调整仍然存在。如果这只股票跌至约 170 美元（远期收益约 6 倍，较当前水平进一步下跌约 20%），我会更有兴趣买入这只股票，但在那之前我仍处于观望状态。</blockquote></p><p> The fundamental risks investors should be tracking</p><p><blockquote>投资者应跟踪的基本风险</blockquote></p><p> Unlike many other tech stocks this quarter, Sea's correction was not just an expression of weakened sentiment toward growth stocks, but also a reflection of softening fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>与本季度许多其他科技股不同，Sea 的回调不仅体现了对成长型股票的情绪减弱，也反映了基本面的疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We've already noted how critical Sea's gaming division is to the overall operation of the company - while no longer the majority of revenue, it is the most profitable division that helps to finance losses in the rest of the company's loss-leading e-commerce arm. Sea's gaming operations saw dramatic growth during the pandemic as play time soared and willingness to pay increased - but now, amid normalization and competition versus other types of entertainment, Sea's digital entertainment base is starting to show softness.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经注意到 Sea 的游戏部门对公司的整体运营有多么重要——虽然不再是收入的大部分，但它是最赚钱的部门，有助于弥补公司亏损领先的电子商务部门其他部门的亏损。随着游戏时间激增和付费意愿增加，Sea 的游戏业务在大流行期间出现了大幅增长，但现在，在正常化和与其他类型娱乐的竞争中，Sea 的数字娱乐基础开始显示出疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>请看下图：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cfbd548965e8dae1aa3c7ef8b0b8e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For several quarters, Sea had been adding 30-40 million net-new quarterly active users. In fact, during the preceding quarter, Sea had added a massive ~76 million net-new QAUs. As long as Sea's gaming business continues to grow at a fast enough pace to absorb e-commerce's swelling losses, Sea's formula worked.</p><p><blockquote>几个季度以来，Sea 一直在新增 3000 万至 4000 万季度活跃用户。事实上，在上一季度，Sea 新增了约 7600 万个 QAU。只要 Sea 的游戏业务继续以足够快的速度增长，以吸收电子商务不断扩大的损失，Sea 的公式就奏效了。</blockquote></p><p> But this slowdown to barely any (~4 million) net-new QAU adds in Q3 is alarming. Even more so is the fact that paid users only saw a 1 million sequential increase. The good news is that Sea's paid user ratio, at 12.8% this quarter, is the highest it has ever been in the company's lifetime. But we do worry if willingness to pay for gaming, and gaming activity in general, will decline in the post-pandemic period once schools and offices fully return to normal.</p><p><blockquote>但第三季度几乎没有（约 400 万）净新增 QAU 新增数量的放缓令人担忧。更重要的是，付费用户仅连续增加了100万。好消息是，Sea 本季度的付费用户比例为 12.8%，是该公司有史以来的最高水平。但我们确实担心，一旦学校和办公室完全恢复正常，支付游戏费用的意愿以及一般的游戏活动是否会在后疫情时期下降。</blockquote></p><p> For over a year now, a lot of Sea's gaming success has been anchored to its internally-developed <i>Free Fire</i> title. Yet games, of course, have a shelf life of when they pass the phase of popularity. One thing that gaming rivals like Activision Blizzard (ATVI) have been tremendously successful at is converting hit titles into sustainable, multi-game franchises like <i>Call of Duty</i>and<i>World of Warcraft/Hearthstone.</i>In this regard, Sea is relatively untested, and if it fails at sustaining<i>Free Fire's</i>momentum, it could be in trouble.</p><p><blockquote>一年多来，Sea 的游戏成功很大程度上取决于其内部开发的<i>自由射击</i>标题。然而，游戏当然有一个保质期，当它们过了流行阶段。动视暴雪 (ATVI) 等游戏竞争对手取得了巨大成功的一件事是将热门游戏转化为可持续的多游戏系列，例如<i>值班看涨期权</i>和<i>魔兽世界/炉石传说。</i>在这方面，海洋相对未经测试，如果它不能维持<i>自由射击</i>势头，它可能有麻烦了。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in e-commerce, there can be no doubt that Sea continues to expand rapidly. E-commerce revenue of $1.5 billion grew 134% y/y. The company also launched a wave of new markets over the past few months, per CEO Forrest Li's prepared remarks on the Q3 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在电子商务领域，Sea 无疑继续快速扩张。15亿美元的电子商务收入同比增长134%。根据首席执行官 Forrest Li 在第三季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话，该公司在过去几个月还推出了一波新市场：</blockquote></p><p> In the recent months, we launched Shopee in Poland, France, Spain and India. From time-to-time, we may test waters in new markets where we believe there may be an opportunity to use our experience in highly diverse environment, to reach underserved buyers and sellers. On the one hand, our core focus remains managing our efficient and sustainable growth in Southeast Asia, Thailand, and Brazil, where we have established and are continuing to grow our strong presents, serving local sellers to the buyers.\" Sea has not yet figured out, however, how to stem the bleeding in its e-commerce business, whose adjusted EBITDA losses more than doubled y/y to -$683.8 million. The 22% y/y growth in digital entertainment EBITDA to $715.1 million was completely consumed by the widening losses in e-commerce, and total adjusted EBITDA swung from a profit of $120.4 million in the prior-year Q3 to a -$165.5 million loss this quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个月，我们在波兰、法国、西班牙和印度推出了Shopee。我们可能会不时在新市场试水，我们相信有机会在高度多元化的环境中运用我们的经验，接触服务不足的买家和卖家。一方面，我们的核心重点仍然是管理我们在东南亚、泰国和巴西的高效和可持续增长，我们已经在这些国家建立并继续发展我们强大的产品，为当地卖家和买家提供服务。”然而，Sea 尚未弄清楚如何阻止其电子商务业务的流失，其调整后的 EBITDA 亏损同比增长一倍多，达到 -6.838 亿美元。数字娱乐 EBITDA 同比增长 22% 至 7.151 亿美元，但完全被电子商务亏损不断扩大所吞噬，调整后 EBITDA 总额从上年第三季度的利润 1.204 亿美元转为亏损 1.655 亿美元本季度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9e730082a517f9713d66feb1164907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In bull markets, investors may not mind this \"growth at all costs\" mindset. But as growth stocks continue to teeter heading into the final trading days of 2022, I think Sea's burgeoning losses are going to raise more eyebrows.</p><p><blockquote>在牛市中，投资者可能不介意这种“不惜一切代价增长”的心态。但随着成长型股票在 2022 年最后几个交易日继续摇摇欲坠，我认为 Sea 不断飙升的亏损将引起更多的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Key takeaways</p><p><blockquote>主要要点</blockquote></p><p> After a nearly unbroken two-year rally that at one point took Sea's stock up eightfold since the start of the pandemic, the air is finally starting to seep out of this overhyped balloon. I'm fully aware of Sea's merits as one of the leading and fastest-growing e-commerce brands in Southeast Asia, but I'm waiting until Sea drops below $200 (specifically, ~$170 is my target entry point) before initiating a position.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行开始以来，Sea 的股价几乎没有中断过两年的反弹，一度上涨了八倍，但空气终于开始从这个过度炒作的气球中渗出。我充分意识到Sea作为东南亚领先和增长最快的电子商务品牌之一的优点，但我会等到Sea跌破200美元（具体来说，约170美元是我的目标切入点）后再开始建仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475903-sea-se-stock-correction-pick-up-steam\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475903-sea-se-stock-correction-pick-up-steam","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199933858","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have lost more than 40% from all-time highs, an expression of the company's overbloated valuation.\nSea, commonly touted as the Amazon of Southeast Asia, continues to see massive losses piling up.\nIts most profitable division, gaming, saw an alarming slowdown in new user acquisition.\nEven after considering the most recent correction, Sea still looks expensive at ~10x forward revenue.\n\nThe wheel is coming undone for some of the stock market's most-bandwagoned and overhyped names. Chief among this list is international tech giant Sea (SE), an internet conglomerate based on Singapore that has often been referred to as the \"Amazon (AMZN) of Southeast Asia\".\nThat narrative got a lot of traction amid the pandemic, especially as very strict lockdowns in Sea's home country of Singapore as well as surrounding countries in Southeast Asia fueled a rapid and immediate contingent of gamers to Sea's platform. At one time, Sea's shares had multiplied eightfold since the start of the pandemic.\nYet with the risk-off attitude that has taken hold in the markets, investors are starting to change their tune in this stock. Whereas previously the market had rewarded Sea solely for its growth and without giving regard to its massive losses and the fact that the gaming division was essentially subsidizing growth initiatives at the rest of the company, the market is starting to wake up to the fact that A)Sea's dominance of Southeast Asia may not be a given, especially with so many internet startups vying for market share, and B)Sea's formula relies so completely on the cash flow produced by the gaming division that any slowdown looks frightening.\nTaking these risks into account, plus the general fact that investors have dramatically sold off tech/growth stocks over the past quarter, shares of Sea have lost more than 40%of their market value since hitting a peak above $370.\n\nIn late October, when Sea was trading at ~$350 and near peaks, I had issued a warning article that the stock was overhyped andlong overdue for a correction. Even after this sharp fall in the stock, I still remain cautious andneutralon Sea, and I think there's further pain ahead, especially if the market's rotation away from growth and into value persists.\nValuation still remains expensive\nThe chief reason I'm still unenthused on Sea - even after the sharp 40% fall from peaks, Sea still trades at an unreasonably high valuation. At current ADR share prices near $213, Sea has a $118.02 billion market cap. After we net off the $12.17 billion of cash and $3.50 billion of debt on the company's most recent balance sheet, Sea's resulting enterprise value is $109.35 billion.\nFor next year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea's revenues to grow 50% y/y to $14.21 billion (data from Yahoo Finance). Note that this represents quite sharp deceleration from current growth rates near 100% y/y, once the pandemic tailwinds are fully baked into prior-year comps.\nAt this revenue estimate, Sea trades at a valuation multiple of7.7x EV/FY22 revenue.\nSure, this is much cheaper than the mid-teens valuation that Sea used to trade at. But when evaluating this valuation, keep a few things in mind:\n\nSea's revenue skews heavily toward e-commerce, which is low-margin.Non-gaming revenues contributed to 57% of overall revenue; and non-gaming IFRS gross margins were only 14% (both metrics as of YTD 2021).\nSea is hardly the only game in town.While certainly the most recognizable and internationally traded of Southeast Asia's internet giants, Sea is quite significant competition versus the likes of Tokopedia and Lazada.\nSome growth premium is of course warranted for a company growing as quickly as Sea,but note that Amazon's forward revenue multiple is only 3.6x, less than half of Sea's\n\nThe bottom line here: valuation, plus the possibility of continued fundamental risks which we'll discuss in the next section, make me quite nervous that Sea's correction still has legs. I'd be more interested in picking up this stock if it fell to ~$170 (~6x forward revenue, and ~20% further downside from current levels), but until then I'm remaining on the sidelines.\nThe fundamental risks investors should be tracking\nUnlike many other tech stocks this quarter, Sea's correction was not just an expression of weakened sentiment toward growth stocks, but also a reflection of softening fundamentals.\nWe've already noted how critical Sea's gaming division is to the overall operation of the company - while no longer the majority of revenue, it is the most profitable division that helps to finance losses in the rest of the company's loss-leading e-commerce arm. Sea's gaming operations saw dramatic growth during the pandemic as play time soared and willingness to pay increased - but now, amid normalization and competition versus other types of entertainment, Sea's digital entertainment base is starting to show softness.\nTake a look at the chart below:\nFor several quarters, Sea had been adding 30-40 million net-new quarterly active users. In fact, during the preceding quarter, Sea had added a massive ~76 million net-new QAUs. As long as Sea's gaming business continues to grow at a fast enough pace to absorb e-commerce's swelling losses, Sea's formula worked.\nBut this slowdown to barely any (~4 million) net-new QAU adds in Q3 is alarming. Even more so is the fact that paid users only saw a 1 million sequential increase. The good news is that Sea's paid user ratio, at 12.8% this quarter, is the highest it has ever been in the company's lifetime. But we do worry if willingness to pay for gaming, and gaming activity in general, will decline in the post-pandemic period once schools and offices fully return to normal.\nFor over a year now, a lot of Sea's gaming success has been anchored to its internally-developed Free Fire title. Yet games, of course, have a shelf life of when they pass the phase of popularity. One thing that gaming rivals like Activision Blizzard (ATVI) have been tremendously successful at is converting hit titles into sustainable, multi-game franchises like Call of DutyandWorld of Warcraft/Hearthstone.In this regard, Sea is relatively untested, and if it fails at sustainingFree Fire'smomentum, it could be in trouble.\nMeanwhile, in e-commerce, there can be no doubt that Sea continues to expand rapidly. E-commerce revenue of $1.5 billion grew 134% y/y. The company also launched a wave of new markets over the past few months, per CEO Forrest Li's prepared remarks on the Q3 earnings call:\n\n In the recent months, we launched Shopee in Poland, France, Spain and India. From time-to-time, we may test waters in new markets where we believe there may be an opportunity to use our experience in highly diverse environment, to reach underserved buyers and sellers. On the one hand, our core focus remains managing our efficient and sustainable growth in Southeast Asia, Thailand, and Brazil, where we have established and are continuing to grow our strong presents, serving local sellers to the buyers.\"\n\nSea has not yet figured out, however, how to stem the bleeding in its e-commerce business, whose adjusted EBITDA losses more than doubled y/y to -$683.8 million. The 22% y/y growth in digital entertainment EBITDA to $715.1 million was completely consumed by the widening losses in e-commerce, and total adjusted EBITDA swung from a profit of $120.4 million in the prior-year Q3 to a -$165.5 million loss this quarter.\nIn bull markets, investors may not mind this \"growth at all costs\" mindset. But as growth stocks continue to teeter heading into the final trading days of 2022, I think Sea's burgeoning losses are going to raise more eyebrows.\nKey takeaways\nAfter a nearly unbroken two-year rally that at one point took Sea's stock up eightfold since the start of the pandemic, the air is finally starting to seep out of this overhyped balloon. I'm fully aware of Sea's merits as one of the leading and fastest-growing e-commerce brands in Southeast Asia, but I'm waiting until Sea drops below $200 (specifically, ~$170 is my target entry point) before initiating a position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3443,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":62,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/693347369"}
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