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What happens next with the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet?<blockquote>美联储9万亿美元的资产负债表接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>

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Doing so has ballooned the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to nearly $9 trillion.<blockquote>自大流行病开始以来，美国中央银行已经积极印刷了数万亿美元，以维持美国经济的运转。这样做使美联储的资产负债表膨胀到近 9 万亿美元。</blockquote> Fed officials, acknowledging the rising risks posed by inflationary pressures, are now starting to think about whether or not they can move to&nbsp;shrink&nbsp;the central bank’s holdings next year.<blockquote>美联储官员承认通胀压力带来的风险上升，现在开始考虑是否可以转向收缩央行明年的持有量。</blockquote> “I have no idea what a normal balance sheet looks like anymore,” said Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Dec. 17.<blockquote>“美联储理事克里斯托弗-沃勒（Christopher Waller）在12月17日表示：”我已经不知道正常的资产负债表是什么样子了。</blockquote> Since the depths of the pandemic, the Fed has been buying U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities in the open market. Those purchases, in a process often referred to as “quantitative easing,” serve as a signal to markets that the Fed is serious about its intention to keep financing conditions loose.<blockquote>自疫情爆发以来，美联储一直在公开市场上购买美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券。在通常被称为 “量化宽松 ”的过程中，这些购买向市场发出信号，表明美联储对保持宽松融资条件的意图是认真的。</blockquote> In November, the Fed&nbsp;kicked off the process in slowing the pace of those purchases, which it had been running at a clip of about $120 billion per month. After a print on inflation showing the&nbsp;fastest pace of price increases since 1982, the Fed moved on Dec. 15 to&nbsp;more quickly draw down its purchases.<blockquote>11 月，美联储启动了放缓这些购买步伐的进程，此前美联储一直以每月约 1200 亿美元的速度进行购买。在通胀数据显示物价上涨速度为 1982 年以来最快之后，美联储于 12 月 15 日采取行动，更快地减少购买量。</blockquote> When the Fed brings the quantitative easing program to a full stop around March, policymakers will then turn their eyes to raising interest rates (from the current setting of near zero) — and perhaps an unwinding of its balance sheet. The Fed signaled the likelihood of three interest rate hikes next year, a&nbsp;more aggressive path than Fed watchers had originally expected.<blockquote>当美联储在3月份左右全面停止量化宽松计划时，政策制定者将把目光转向加息（从目前接近于零的设定开始），或许还会缩减资产负债表。美联储暗示明年可能加息三次，这比美联储观察人士最初预期的更加激进。</blockquote> “In light of this slightly earlier timing of hikes and Powell’s comment that differences with the economic situation last cycle could influence thinking about balance sheet policy,” wrote Goldman Sachs Economics in a note.<blockquote>“高盛经济公司在一份报告中写道：”鉴于加息时间略早，以及鲍威尔表示，与上一周期经济形势的差异可能会影响对资产负债表政策的思考。</blockquote> Wall Street analysts are pulling forward their expectations for when the Fed would start “quantitative tightening,” the process of shrinking the balance sheet by allowing maturing securities to “roll&nbsp;off” (as opposed to reinvest in new securities).<blockquote>华尔街分析师正在提高他们对美联储何时开始 “量化紧缩 ”的预期，即通过允许到期证券 “滚落 ”（而不是再投资于新证券）来缩小资产负债表的过程。</blockquote> Deutsche Bank, which originally expected the Fed to start the balance sheet unwind in the third quarter of 2023, now expects that process to begin in the “back half of next year.” Goldman Sachs had originally forecast a start date in the first half of 2023, but now expects quantitative tightening to begin in the fourth quarter of next year.<blockquote>德意志银行最初预计美联储将在 2023 年第三季度开始缩减资产负债表规模，但现在预计这一过程将在 “明年下半年 ”开始。高盛最初预测开始日期为 2023 年上半年，但现在预计量化紧缩政策将于明年第四季度开始。</blockquote> What has the Fed said?<blockquote>美联储说了什么？</blockquote> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell punted on the question of balance sheet strategies when he was asked about it following the Fed’s most recent policy-setting meeting.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在美联储最近一次政策制定会议后被问及资产负债表战略问题时，回避了这一问题。</blockquote> “Didn’t make any decisions today,” said Powell on Dec. 15, adding that the Fed will deliberate on the timing of any balance sheet runoff in coming meetings.<blockquote>鲍威尔在12月15日表示：“今天没有做出任何决定。”他补充说，美联储将在即将召开的会议上审议任何资产负债表决选的时机。</blockquote> But Powell’s colleagues are beginning to speak openly about exactly how they’d like to see the balance sheet handled.<blockquote>但鲍威尔的同事们开始公开谈论他们希望如何处理资产负债表。</blockquote> “I think we could start reducing the balance sheet not too long after liftoff,” Waller said at an event on Dec. 17, referring to the “lifting off” from near-zero interest rates. Markets are bracing for the possibility of that first interest rate hike to happen as early as March.<blockquote>“沃勒在 12 月 17 日的一次活动中说：”我认为，我们可以在解禁后不久就开始缩减资产负债表。市场正在为最早三月份首次加息的可能性做好准备。</blockquote> Waller added that he would like to see the Fed balance sheet, which is about 35% of total U.S. GDP, reduced to “something like 20%,” which would be roughly $6 trillion.<blockquote>沃勒补充说，他希望看到美联储的资产负债表（约占美国国内生产总值的 35%）减少到 “20% 左右”，约为 6 万亿美元。</blockquote> The Fed has only attempted to reduce the size of its balance sheet once in the modern era of quantitative easing. After almost three years of holding the balance sheet at roughly $4.5 trillion, the Fed moved in late 2017 to begin unwinding its asset holdings.<blockquote>在量化宽松的现代时代，美联储只尝试过一次缩减资产负债表规模。在将资产负债表维持在约 4.5 万亿美元的近三年后，美联储于 2017 年底开始解冻其持有的资产。</blockquote> That process abruptly&nbsp;ended in 2019, in the face of economic downside risks associated with the U.S.-China trade war. The COVID-19 pandemic only a few months later would push the Fed back into again expanding its balance sheet.<blockquote>面对与中美贸易战相关的经济下行风险，这一进程在2019年戛然而止。仅仅几个月后，新冠肺炎疫情就将推动美联储再次扩大资产负债表。</blockquote> The Fed appears to be in the early stages of thinking about how it might be able to pull it off next year, suggesting it may not wait as long as it did last time.<blockquote>美联储似乎正处于考虑明年如何实现这一目标的早期阶段，这表明它可能不会像上次那样等待那么久。</blockquote> But the Fed is also aware that it does not want to surprise markets.<blockquote>但美联储也意识到，它不想让市场感到意外。</blockquote> “In dealing with balance sheet issues, we've learned that it's best to take a careful sort of methodical approach to make adjustments. Markets can be sensitive to it,” Powell said on Dec. 15.<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 12 月 15 日表示：”在处理资产负债表问题时，我们已经认识到，最好采取一种谨慎有条不紊的方法来进行调整。市场对此可能很敏感。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What happens next with the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet?<blockquote>美联储9万亿美元的资产负债表接下来会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat happens next with the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet?<blockquote>美联储9万亿美元的资产负债表接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nfinance.yahoo2021-12-21 20:24\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSince the pandemic began, the nation’s central bank has aggressively printed trillions of dollars to keep the U.S. economy afloat. Doing so has ballooned the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to nearly $9 trillion.<blockquote>自大流行病开始以来，美国中央银行已经积极印刷了数万亿美元，以维持美国经济的运转。这样做使美联储的资产负债表膨胀到近 9 万亿美元。</blockquote> Fed officials, acknowledging the rising risks posed by inflationary pressures, are now starting to think about whether or not they can move to&nbsp;shrink&nbsp;the central bank’s holdings next year.<blockquote>美联储官员承认通胀压力带来的风险上升，现在开始考虑是否可以转向收缩央行明年的持有量。</blockquote> “I have no idea what a normal balance sheet looks like anymore,” said Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Dec. 17.<blockquote>“美联储理事克里斯托弗-沃勒（Christopher Waller）在12月17日表示：”我已经不知道正常的资产负债表是什么样子了。</blockquote> Since the depths of the pandemic, the Fed has been buying U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities in the open market. Those purchases, in a process often referred to as “quantitative easing,” serve as a signal to markets that the Fed is serious about its intention to keep financing conditions loose.<blockquote>自疫情爆发以来，美联储一直在公开市场上购买美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券。在通常被称为 “量化宽松 ”的过程中，这些购买向市场发出信号，表明美联储对保持宽松融资条件的意图是认真的。</blockquote> In November, the Fed&nbsp;kicked off the process in slowing the pace of those purchases, which it had been running at a clip of about $120 billion per month. After a print on inflation showing the&nbsp;fastest pace of price increases since 1982, the Fed moved on Dec. 15 to&nbsp;more quickly draw down its purchases.<blockquote>11 月，美联储启动了放缓这些购买步伐的进程，此前美联储一直以每月约 1200 亿美元的速度进行购买。在通胀数据显示物价上涨速度为 1982 年以来最快之后，美联储于 12 月 15 日采取行动，更快地减少购买量。</blockquote> When the Fed brings the quantitative easing program to a full stop around March, policymakers will then turn their eyes to raising interest rates (from the current setting of near zero) — and perhaps an unwinding of its balance sheet. The Fed signaled the likelihood of three interest rate hikes next year, a&nbsp;more aggressive path than Fed watchers had originally expected.<blockquote>当美联储在3月份左右全面停止量化宽松计划时，政策制定者将把目光转向加息（从目前接近于零的设定开始），或许还会缩减资产负债表。美联储暗示明年可能加息三次，这比美联储观察人士最初预期的更加激进。</blockquote> “In light of this slightly earlier timing of hikes and Powell’s comment that differences with the economic situation last cycle could influence thinking about balance sheet policy,” wrote Goldman Sachs Economics in a note.<blockquote>“高盛经济公司在一份报告中写道：”鉴于加息时间略早，以及鲍威尔表示，与上一周期经济形势的差异可能会影响对资产负债表政策的思考。</blockquote> Wall Street analysts are pulling forward their expectations for when the Fed would start “quantitative tightening,” the process of shrinking the balance sheet by allowing maturing securities to “roll&nbsp;off” (as opposed to reinvest in new securities).<blockquote>华尔街分析师正在提高他们对美联储何时开始 “量化紧缩 ”的预期，即通过允许到期证券 “滚落 ”（而不是再投资于新证券）来缩小资产负债表的过程。</blockquote> Deutsche Bank, which originally expected the Fed to start the balance sheet unwind in the third quarter of 2023, now expects that process to begin in the “back half of next year.” Goldman Sachs had originally forecast a start date in the first half of 2023, but now expects quantitative tightening to begin in the fourth quarter of next year.<blockquote>德意志银行最初预计美联储将在 2023 年第三季度开始缩减资产负债表规模，但现在预计这一过程将在 “明年下半年 ”开始。高盛最初预测开始日期为 2023 年上半年，但现在预计量化紧缩政策将于明年第四季度开始。</blockquote> What has the Fed said?<blockquote>美联储说了什么？</blockquote> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell punted on the question of balance sheet strategies when he was asked about it following the Fed’s most recent policy-setting meeting.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在美联储最近一次政策制定会议后被问及资产负债表战略问题时，回避了这一问题。</blockquote> “Didn’t make any decisions today,” said Powell on Dec. 15, adding that the Fed will deliberate on the timing of any balance sheet runoff in coming meetings.<blockquote>鲍威尔在12月15日表示：“今天没有做出任何决定。”他补充说，美联储将在即将召开的会议上审议任何资产负债表决选的时机。</blockquote> But Powell’s colleagues are beginning to speak openly about exactly how they’d like to see the balance sheet handled.<blockquote>但鲍威尔的同事们开始公开谈论他们希望如何处理资产负债表。</blockquote> “I think we could start reducing the balance sheet not too long after liftoff,” Waller said at an event on Dec. 17, referring to the “lifting off” from near-zero interest rates. Markets are bracing for the possibility of that first interest rate hike to happen as early as March.<blockquote>“沃勒在 12 月 17 日的一次活动中说：”我认为，我们可以在解禁后不久就开始缩减资产负债表。市场正在为最早三月份首次加息的可能性做好准备。</blockquote> Waller added that he would like to see the Fed balance sheet, which is about 35% of total U.S. GDP, reduced to “something like 20%,” which would be roughly $6 trillion.<blockquote>沃勒补充说，他希望看到美联储的资产负债表（约占美国国内生产总值的 35%）减少到 “20% 左右”，约为 6 万亿美元。</blockquote> The Fed has only attempted to reduce the size of its balance sheet once in the modern era of quantitative easing. After almost three years of holding the balance sheet at roughly $4.5 trillion, the Fed moved in late 2017 to begin unwinding its asset holdings.<blockquote>在量化宽松的现代时代，美联储只尝试过一次缩减资产负债表规模。在将资产负债表维持在约 4.5 万亿美元的近三年后，美联储于 2017 年底开始解冻其持有的资产。</blockquote> That process abruptly&nbsp;ended in 2019, in the face of economic downside risks associated with the U.S.-China trade war. The COVID-19 pandemic only a few months later would push the Fed back into again expanding its balance sheet.<blockquote>面对与中美贸易战相关的经济下行风险，这一进程在2019年戛然而止。仅仅几个月后，新冠肺炎疫情就将推动美联储再次扩大资产负债表。</blockquote> The Fed appears to be in the early stages of thinking about how it might be able to pull it off next year, suggesting it may not wait as long as it did last time.<blockquote>美联储似乎正处于考虑明年如何实现这一目标的早期阶段，这表明它可能不会像上次那样等待那么久。</blockquote> But the Fed is also aware that it does not want to surprise markets.<blockquote>但美联储也意识到，它不想让市场感到意外。</blockquote> “In dealing with balance sheet issues, we've learned that it's best to take a careful sort of methodical approach to make adjustments. Markets can be sensitive to it,” Powell said on Dec. 15.<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 12 月 15 日表示：”在处理资产负债表问题时，我们已经认识到，最好采取一种谨慎有条不紊的方法来进行调整。市场对此可能很敏感。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quantitative-tightening-federal-reserve-9-trillion-balance-sheet-113743366.html\">finance.yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quantitative-tightening-federal-reserve-9-trillion-balance-sheet-113743366.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109474932","content_text":"Since the pandemic began, the nation’s central bank has aggressively printed trillions of dollars to keep the U.S. economy afloat. Doing so has ballooned the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to nearly $9 trillion.\nFed officials, acknowledging the rising risks posed by inflationary pressures, are now starting to think about whether or not they can move to shrink the central bank’s holdings next year.\n“I have no idea what a normal balance sheet looks like anymore,” said Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Dec. 17.\nSince the depths of the pandemic, the Fed has been buying U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities in the open market. Those purchases, in a process often referred to as “quantitative easing,” serve as a signal to markets that the Fed is serious about its intention to keep financing conditions loose.\nIn November, the Fed kicked off the process in slowing the pace of those purchases, which it had been running at a clip of about $120 billion per month. After a print on inflation showing the fastest pace of price increases since 1982, the Fed moved on Dec. 15 to more quickly draw down its purchases.\nWhen the Fed brings the quantitative easing program to a full stop around March, policymakers will then turn their eyes to raising interest rates (from the current setting of near zero) — and perhaps an unwinding of its balance sheet. The Fed signaled the likelihood of three interest rate hikes next year, a more aggressive path than Fed watchers had originally expected.\n“In light of this slightly earlier timing of hikes and Powell’s comment that differences with the economic situation last cycle could influence thinking about balance sheet policy,” wrote Goldman Sachs Economics in a note.\nWall Street analysts are pulling forward their expectations for when the Fed would start “quantitative tightening,” the process of shrinking the balance sheet by allowing maturing securities to “roll off” (as opposed to reinvest in new securities).\nDeutsche Bank, which originally expected the Fed to start the balance sheet unwind in the third quarter of 2023, now expects that process to begin in the “back half of next year.” Goldman Sachs had originally forecast a start date in the first half of 2023, but now expects quantitative tightening to begin in the fourth quarter of next year.\nWhat has the Fed said?\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell punted on the question of balance sheet strategies when he was asked about it following the Fed’s most recent policy-setting meeting.\n“Didn’t make any decisions today,” said Powell on Dec. 15, adding that the Fed will deliberate on the timing of any balance sheet runoff in coming meetings.\nBut Powell’s colleagues are beginning to speak openly about exactly how they’d like to see the balance sheet handled.\n“I think we could start reducing the balance sheet not too long after liftoff,” Waller said at an event on Dec. 17, referring to the “lifting off” from near-zero interest rates. Markets are bracing for the possibility of that first interest rate hike to happen as early as March.\nWaller added that he would like to see the Fed balance sheet, which is about 35% of total U.S. GDP, reduced to “something like 20%,” which would be roughly $6 trillion.\nThe Fed has only attempted to reduce the size of its balance sheet once in the modern era of quantitative easing. After almost three years of holding the balance sheet at roughly $4.5 trillion, the Fed moved in late 2017 to begin unwinding its asset holdings.\nThat process abruptly ended in 2019, in the face of economic downside risks associated with the U.S.-China trade war. The COVID-19 pandemic only a few months later would push the Fed back into again expanding its balance sheet.\nThe Fed appears to be in the early stages of thinking about how it might be able to pull it off next year, suggesting it may not wait as long as it did last time.\nBut the Fed is also aware that it does not want to surprise markets.\n“In dealing with balance sheet issues, we've learned that it's best to take a careful sort of methodical approach to make adjustments. Markets can be sensitive to it,” Powell said on Dec. 15.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":990,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/693747671"}