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2022-01-10
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Veteran Equity Strategist Expects a ‘Cathartic Upchuck’ in 2022<blockquote>资深股票策略师预计2022年将出现“宣泄情绪”</blockquote>
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Below is a condensed and lightly edited transcript of the conversation. Click here to listen to the full show and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen.</p><p><blockquote>哈维加入了彭博的“What Goes Up”播客，谈论了这一点以及他2022年展望的其他内容。以下是经过删节和轻微编辑的谈话记录。点击此处收听完整节目，并在苹果播客、Spotify或任何你收听的地方订阅。</blockquote></p><p>Q: Was the market’s reaction to the Fed minutes on Wednesday reasonable?</p><p><blockquote>问：市场对周三美联储会议纪要的反应合理吗？</blockquote></p><p>A: It’s a reasonable reaction. For a while, people had been questioning whether the Fed had the wherewithal and the will to fight inflation. There was talk about transitory for too long. Powell recently retired that phrase or said he was going to retire that phrase. And then when you listen to the minutes, they mean business. And people are finally realizing that the Fed will do what they need to do to fight inflation, and that’s troubling.</p><p><blockquote>答：这是合理的反应。一段时间以来，人们一直在质疑美联储是否有必要的资金和意愿来对抗通胀。关于短暂的讨论已经太久了。鲍威尔最近放弃了这句话，或者说他打算放弃这句话。然后当你听会议记录时，它们是认真的。人们终于意识到美联储将采取他们需要采取的措施来对抗通胀，这令人不安。</blockquote></p><p>But more importantly, what’s really happening underneath the surface and behind the scenes -- you have to keep a very, very sharp eye on real rates. What we’ve noticed all of last year is as real rates go, much of the relative price in the equity market goes. So real rates go up, that cyclical trade works. Real rates go down, and that long-duration or that tech growth trade works. And what’s happening right now is real rates are going higher, tech and high growth are rolling over. That’s a big part of the market.</p><p><blockquote>但更重要的是，表面之下和幕后到底发生了什么——你必须非常非常敏锐地关注实际利率。我们去年全年都注意到，随着实际利率的上涨，股市的大部分相对价格也会上涨。因此，实际利率上升，周期性交易发挥作用。实际利率下降，长期或科技增长交易发挥作用。现在发生的是实际利率正在上升，科技和高增长正在滚动。这是市场的很大一部分。</blockquote></p><p>Q: Fed’s Neel Kashkari, who traditionally has been very dovish, is expecting two hikes in 2022. Is that like cold water to the face to some degree?</p><p><blockquote>问：传统上非常鸽派的美联储尼尔·卡什卡利预计2022年将加息两次。在某种程度上，这就像泼在脸上的冷水吗？</blockquote></p><p>A: Last year, I was a little dumbfounded because we were looking and we were listening to transcripts, we were looking at pricing. I had never seen -- in my more than two decades on Wall Street -- this kind of pricing environment. At one time, I had asked one of my associates, ‘Hey, give me a handful of stocks that are raising prices.’ He said, just pick any three. And at the end of the day, I was surprised that it’s taken this long for the Fed to react. But now the Fed is reacting and you’re seeing breakevens and you’re seeing inflation expectations come down.</p><p><blockquote>答：去年，我有点目瞪口呆，因为我们在看、听成绩单，我们在看定价。在我在华尔街工作的二十多年里，我从未见过这种定价环境。有一次，我问我的一个同事，‘嘿，给我几只正在涨价的股票。’他说，随便挑三只就行了。最终，我很惊讶美联储花了这么长时间才做出反应。但现在美联储正在做出反应，你会看到盈亏平衡，你会看到通胀预期下降。</blockquote></p><p>There was a lot of talk about stagflation two, three, four months ago. You have to take stagflation off the table because the Fed is fighting inflation. The other thing that’s happening is February 1 kicks off Chinese New Year. That’s when goods start to slow into the U.S. I’m not saying the supply-chain is going to be fixed, but really what we think the market will latch onto is: Have we seen peak pressure or peak congestion? Will we be able to make some improvements? And if so, that’s really important because that has significant ramifications for pricing, multiples and margins.</p><p><blockquote>两个月、三个月、四个月前有很多关于滞胀的讨论。你必须消除滞胀，因为美联储正在对抗通胀。另一件正在发生的事情是2月1日是中国新年的开始。那时货物开始放缓进入美国。我并不是说供应链将得到修复，但我们认为市场真正会抓住的是：我们是否看到了峰值压力或峰值拥堵？我们能够做出一些改进吗？如果是这样，这真的很重要，因为这对定价、倍数和利润率有重大影响。</blockquote></p><p>Q: You expect a 10% correction by summertime. What makes you confident in that prediction?</p><p><blockquote>问：您预计夏季会有10%的修正。是什么让你对这个预测充满信心？</blockquote></p><p>A: There’s a pervasive belief that the market can bend, but not break. The market can go down 5%, we can break through the 50-day, we can hit the 100-day, but we really can’t collapse. Well, we’re in the second-year recovery, and typically in the second-year recovery you have multiple compression and you have a lot of other interesting things happening. What you have is growth decelerating, you have a more aggressive Fed, you’re lapping very difficult comparisons and you have the speculation.</p><p><blockquote>答：人们普遍认为市场可以弯曲，但不能崩溃。市场可以下跌5%，我们可以突破50天，我们可以冲击100天，但我们真的不能崩溃。嗯，我们正处于第二年的恢复阶段，通常在第二年的恢复中，你会遇到多次压缩，并且会发生很多其他有趣的事情。你所面临的是增长减速，你有一个更加激进的美联储，你正在进行非常困难的比较，你有猜测。</blockquote></p><p>One of the things that’s helped a lot of these names is you’ve had money chasing performance -- when the performance isn’t there, then the money goes away. And we think that people are going to sell weakness for the first time in a while for fundamental reasons, for technical reasons. Another operative word for 2022 is normalization. We’re going to use this word time and time again.</p><p><blockquote>对这些名字有帮助的一件事是，你有钱去追求性能——当性能不存在时，钱就会消失。我们认为，出于基本面原因和技术原因，人们将在一段时间内首次弱势抛售。2022年的另一个关键词是正常化。我们会一次又一次地使用这个词。</blockquote></p><p>Q: What do you recommend to clients as to where they should be invested?</p><p><blockquote>问：你对客户应该投资哪里有什么建议？</blockquote></p><p>A: What we tell them, from the 5,000-foot level, is you want to go up in quality and want to go down in risk. And when we talk about quality, it’s companies with better balance sheets, you want cash on the balance sheet, you want less leverage, you want better management teams, good stewards of capital. And then you want to stay away from the poor secular stories. So you want to focus on more-attractive profit margins. And we just want to stay away from the more risky-type stories because we just don’t think you’re getting paid. A year and a half ago, that was a different story. Right now, you’re not getting paid for that.</p><p><blockquote>答：我们告诉他们，从5000英尺的高度来看，你想在质量上往上走，在风险上往下走。当我们谈论质量时，是资产负债表更好的公司，你希望资产负债表上有现金，你想要更少的杠杆，你想要更好的管理团队，优秀的资本管理者。然后你想远离那些可怜的世俗故事。所以你想专注于更具吸引力的利润率。我们只是想远离风险更大的故事，因为我们认为你不会得到报酬。一年半前，情况完全不同。现在，你没有得到报酬。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>We’re much more focused on factors and style. And one of the things that we like about quality is one, you’re not paying up. You’re not paying through the nose for higher quality. Two, you’re late in the cycle, and usually late in the cycle is the right time for quality -- quality does better when growth is slowing down as opposed to early in the cycle where growth is really accelerating. And the last thing is quality does much better to the downside. You can participate to the upside, but really our focus is on the downside and quality should help you in that down tape. So, really you want to take on more quality, you want to reduce the risk in the portfolio. It’s time to start building up some dry powder for a rainy day.</p><p><blockquote>我们更关注因素和风格。我们喜欢质量的一点是，你不用付钱。你不会为更高的质量付出高昂的代价。第二，你处于周期的后期，通常周期的后期是质量的最佳时机——当增长放缓时，质量表现更好，而不是在增长真正加速的周期早期。最后一件事是质量比缺点要好得多。你可以参与上行，但实际上我们的重点是下行，质量应该在下行磁带中帮助你。所以，你真的想承担更多的质量，你想降低投资组合的风险。是时候开始积累一些干粉以备不时之需了。</blockquote></p><p>Q: Is the growth-at-any-price trade dead for good?</p><p><blockquote>问：任何价格的增长交易是否永远消亡了？</blockquote></p><p>A: What happens in the equity market, whether you like it or not, is money chases performance, and then when performance isn’t there, money leaves. So you need to see that wash out. We’d like to see a repricing of real rates. We’d like to see us move further in time. We’d like to see another push down in performance. And then we’d like to see that -- I’ll use a very nice graphic phrase -- that cathartic puke where finally we see the sellers exhausted and the final liquidations.</p><p><blockquote>答：不管你喜不喜欢，股票市场上发生的事情都是资金追逐业绩，然后当业绩不存在时，资金就会离开。所以你需要看到它被洗掉。我们希望看到实际利率的重新定价。我们希望看到我们在时间上更进一步。我们希望看到性能再次下降。然后我们希望看到——我会用一个非常好的图形短语——那种宣泄性的呕吐，最终我们看到卖家筋疲力尽，最终清算。</blockquote></p><p>It’s hard to say it’s going to happen on this date at this time. No, we don’t know. But these are the signposts that we’re using. And what we said this year is we think the growth-at-any-price-type stocks are going to have a heavy first half because real rates are going to go higher and because of what you’re seeing today. But we left the door open to the second half because you could see a slowing economy, you could see that repricing and you could see that cathartic upchuck, or you could see the sellers exhausted.</p><p><blockquote>很难说它会在这个时候发生。不，我们不知道。但这些是我们正在使用的路标。我们今年所说的是，我们认为任何价格增长型股票上半年都将表现强劲，因为实际利率将会走高，而且因为您今天所看到的情况。但我们为下半年敞开了大门，因为你可以看到经济放缓，你可以看到重新定价，你可以看到宣泄情绪，或者你可以看到卖家筋疲力尽。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Veteran Equity Strategist Expects a ‘Cathartic Upchuck’ in 2022<blockquote>资深股票策略师预计2022年将出现“宣泄情绪”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVeteran Equity Strategist Expects a ‘Cathartic Upchuck’ in 2022<blockquote>资深股票策略师预计2022年将出现“宣泄情绪”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-10 15:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>(Bloomberg) -- A “cathartic upchuck” in the stock market could send the S&P 500 down 10% in the first half of the year as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy and valuation multiples compress, according to Chris Harvey, the head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo & Co.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>（彭博社）——富国银行股票策略主管Chris Harvey表示，随着美联储收紧货币政策和估值倍数压缩，股市的“宣泄式上涨”可能会导致标普500在今年上半年下跌10%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Harvey joined Bloomberg’s “What Goes Up” podcast to talk about this and other elements of his 2022 outlook. Below is a condensed and lightly edited transcript of the conversation. Click here to listen to the full show and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen.</p><p><blockquote>哈维加入了彭博的“What Goes Up”播客，谈论了这一点以及他2022年展望的其他内容。以下是经过删节和轻微编辑的谈话记录。点击此处收听完整节目，并在苹果播客、Spotify或任何你收听的地方订阅。</blockquote></p><p>Q: Was the market’s reaction to the Fed minutes on Wednesday reasonable?</p><p><blockquote>问：市场对周三美联储会议纪要的反应合理吗？</blockquote></p><p>A: It’s a reasonable reaction. For a while, people had been questioning whether the Fed had the wherewithal and the will to fight inflation. There was talk about transitory for too long. Powell recently retired that phrase or said he was going to retire that phrase. And then when you listen to the minutes, they mean business. And people are finally realizing that the Fed will do what they need to do to fight inflation, and that’s troubling.</p><p><blockquote>答：这是合理的反应。一段时间以来，人们一直在质疑美联储是否有必要的资金和意愿来对抗通胀。关于短暂的讨论已经太久了。鲍威尔最近放弃了这句话，或者说他打算放弃这句话。然后当你听会议记录时，它们是认真的。人们终于意识到美联储将采取他们需要采取的措施来对抗通胀，这令人不安。</blockquote></p><p>But more importantly, what’s really happening underneath the surface and behind the scenes -- you have to keep a very, very sharp eye on real rates. What we’ve noticed all of last year is as real rates go, much of the relative price in the equity market goes. So real rates go up, that cyclical trade works. Real rates go down, and that long-duration or that tech growth trade works. And what’s happening right now is real rates are going higher, tech and high growth are rolling over. That’s a big part of the market.</p><p><blockquote>但更重要的是，表面之下和幕后到底发生了什么——你必须非常非常敏锐地关注实际利率。我们去年全年都注意到，随着实际利率的上涨，股市的大部分相对价格也会上涨。因此，实际利率上升，周期性交易发挥作用。实际利率下降，长期或科技增长交易发挥作用。现在发生的是实际利率正在上升，科技和高增长正在滚动。这是市场的很大一部分。</blockquote></p><p>Q: Fed’s Neel Kashkari, who traditionally has been very dovish, is expecting two hikes in 2022. Is that like cold water to the face to some degree?</p><p><blockquote>问：传统上非常鸽派的美联储尼尔·卡什卡利预计2022年将加息两次。在某种程度上，这就像泼在脸上的冷水吗？</blockquote></p><p>A: Last year, I was a little dumbfounded because we were looking and we were listening to transcripts, we were looking at pricing. I had never seen -- in my more than two decades on Wall Street -- this kind of pricing environment. At one time, I had asked one of my associates, ‘Hey, give me a handful of stocks that are raising prices.’ He said, just pick any three. And at the end of the day, I was surprised that it’s taken this long for the Fed to react. But now the Fed is reacting and you’re seeing breakevens and you’re seeing inflation expectations come down.</p><p><blockquote>答：去年，我有点目瞪口呆，因为我们在看、听成绩单，我们在看定价。在我在华尔街工作的二十多年里，我从未见过这种定价环境。有一次，我问我的一个同事，‘嘿，给我几只正在涨价的股票。’他说，随便挑三只就行了。最终，我很惊讶美联储花了这么长时间才做出反应。但现在美联储正在做出反应，你会看到盈亏平衡，你会看到通胀预期下降。</blockquote></p><p>There was a lot of talk about stagflation two, three, four months ago. You have to take stagflation off the table because the Fed is fighting inflation. The other thing that’s happening is February 1 kicks off Chinese New Year. That’s when goods start to slow into the U.S. I’m not saying the supply-chain is going to be fixed, but really what we think the market will latch onto is: Have we seen peak pressure or peak congestion? Will we be able to make some improvements? And if so, that’s really important because that has significant ramifications for pricing, multiples and margins.</p><p><blockquote>两个月、三个月、四个月前有很多关于滞胀的讨论。你必须消除滞胀，因为美联储正在对抗通胀。另一件正在发生的事情是2月1日是中国新年的开始。那时货物开始放缓进入美国。我并不是说供应链将得到修复，但我们认为市场真正会抓住的是：我们是否看到了峰值压力或峰值拥堵？我们能够做出一些改进吗？如果是这样，这真的很重要，因为这对定价、倍数和利润率有重大影响。</blockquote></p><p>Q: You expect a 10% correction by summertime. What makes you confident in that prediction?</p><p><blockquote>问：您预计夏季会有10%的修正。是什么让你对这个预测充满信心？</blockquote></p><p>A: There’s a pervasive belief that the market can bend, but not break. The market can go down 5%, we can break through the 50-day, we can hit the 100-day, but we really can’t collapse. Well, we’re in the second-year recovery, and typically in the second-year recovery you have multiple compression and you have a lot of other interesting things happening. What you have is growth decelerating, you have a more aggressive Fed, you’re lapping very difficult comparisons and you have the speculation.</p><p><blockquote>答：人们普遍认为市场可以弯曲，但不能崩溃。市场可以下跌5%，我们可以突破50天，我们可以冲击100天，但我们真的不能崩溃。嗯，我们正处于第二年的恢复阶段，通常在第二年的恢复中，你会遇到多次压缩，并且会发生很多其他有趣的事情。你所面临的是增长减速，你有一个更加激进的美联储，你正在进行非常困难的比较，你有猜测。</blockquote></p><p>One of the things that’s helped a lot of these names is you’ve had money chasing performance -- when the performance isn’t there, then the money goes away. And we think that people are going to sell weakness for the first time in a while for fundamental reasons, for technical reasons. Another operative word for 2022 is normalization. We’re going to use this word time and time again.</p><p><blockquote>对这些名字有帮助的一件事是，你有钱去追求性能——当性能不存在时，钱就会消失。我们认为，出于基本面原因和技术原因，人们将在一段时间内首次弱势抛售。2022年的另一个关键词是正常化。我们会一次又一次地使用这个词。</blockquote></p><p>Q: What do you recommend to clients as to where they should be invested?</p><p><blockquote>问：你对客户应该投资哪里有什么建议？</blockquote></p><p>A: What we tell them, from the 5,000-foot level, is you want to go up in quality and want to go down in risk. And when we talk about quality, it’s companies with better balance sheets, you want cash on the balance sheet, you want less leverage, you want better management teams, good stewards of capital. And then you want to stay away from the poor secular stories. So you want to focus on more-attractive profit margins. And we just want to stay away from the more risky-type stories because we just don’t think you’re getting paid. A year and a half ago, that was a different story. Right now, you’re not getting paid for that.</p><p><blockquote>答：我们告诉他们，从5000英尺的高度来看，你想在质量上往上走，在风险上往下走。当我们谈论质量时，是资产负债表更好的公司，你希望资产负债表上有现金，你想要更少的杠杆，你想要更好的管理团队，优秀的资本管理者。然后你想远离那些可怜的世俗故事。所以你想专注于更具吸引力的利润率。我们只是想远离风险更大的故事，因为我们认为你不会得到报酬。一年半前，情况完全不同。现在，你没有得到报酬。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>We’re much more focused on factors and style. And one of the things that we like about quality is one, you’re not paying up. You’re not paying through the nose for higher quality. Two, you’re late in the cycle, and usually late in the cycle is the right time for quality -- quality does better when growth is slowing down as opposed to early in the cycle where growth is really accelerating. And the last thing is quality does much better to the downside. You can participate to the upside, but really our focus is on the downside and quality should help you in that down tape. So, really you want to take on more quality, you want to reduce the risk in the portfolio. It’s time to start building up some dry powder for a rainy day.</p><p><blockquote>我们更关注因素和风格。我们喜欢质量的一点是，你不用付钱。你不会为更高的质量付出高昂的代价。第二，你处于周期的后期，通常周期的后期是质量的最佳时机——当增长放缓时，质量表现更好，而不是在增长真正加速的周期早期。最后一件事是质量比缺点要好得多。你可以参与上行，但实际上我们的重点是下行，质量应该在下行磁带中帮助你。所以，你真的想承担更多的质量，你想降低投资组合的风险。是时候开始积累一些干粉以备不时之需了。</blockquote></p><p>Q: Is the growth-at-any-price trade dead for good?</p><p><blockquote>问：任何价格的增长交易是否永远消亡了？</blockquote></p><p>A: What happens in the equity market, whether you like it or not, is money chases performance, and then when performance isn’t there, money leaves. So you need to see that wash out. We’d like to see a repricing of real rates. We’d like to see us move further in time. We’d like to see another push down in performance. And then we’d like to see that -- I’ll use a very nice graphic phrase -- that cathartic puke where finally we see the sellers exhausted and the final liquidations.</p><p><blockquote>答：不管你喜不喜欢，股票市场上发生的事情都是资金追逐业绩，然后当业绩不存在时，资金就会离开。所以你需要看到它被洗掉。我们希望看到实际利率的重新定价。我们希望看到我们在时间上更进一步。我们希望看到性能再次下降。然后我们希望看到——我会用一个非常好的图形短语——那种宣泄性的呕吐，最终我们看到卖家筋疲力尽，最终清算。</blockquote></p><p>It’s hard to say it’s going to happen on this date at this time. No, we don’t know. But these are the signposts that we’re using. And what we said this year is we think the growth-at-any-price-type stocks are going to have a heavy first half because real rates are going to go higher and because of what you’re seeing today. But we left the door open to the second half because you could see a slowing economy, you could see that repricing and you could see that cathartic upchuck, or you could see the sellers exhausted.</p><p><blockquote>很难说它会在这个时候发生。不，我们不知道。但这些是我们正在使用的路标。我们今年所说的是，我们认为任何价格增长型股票上半年都将表现强劲，因为实际利率将会走高，而且因为您今天所看到的情况。但我们为下半年敞开了大门，因为你可以看到经济放缓，你可以看到重新定价，你可以看到宣泄情绪，或者你可以看到卖家筋疲力尽。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/veteran-equity-strategist-expects-cathartic-173019739.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/veteran-equity-strategist-expects-cathartic-173019739.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117315527","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- A “cathartic upchuck” in the stock market could send the S&P 500 down 10% in the first half of the year as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy and valuation multiples compress, according to Chris Harvey, the head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo & Co.Harvey joined Bloomberg’s “What Goes Up” podcast to talk about this and other elements of his 2022 outlook. Below is a condensed and lightly edited transcript of the conversation. Click here to listen to the full show and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen.Q: Was the market’s reaction to the Fed minutes on Wednesday reasonable?A: It’s a reasonable reaction. For a while, people had been questioning whether the Fed had the wherewithal and the will to fight inflation. There was talk about transitory for too long. Powell recently retired that phrase or said he was going to retire that phrase. And then when you listen to the minutes, they mean business. And people are finally realizing that the Fed will do what they need to do to fight inflation, and that’s troubling.But more importantly, what’s really happening underneath the surface and behind the scenes -- you have to keep a very, very sharp eye on real rates. What we’ve noticed all of last year is as real rates go, much of the relative price in the equity market goes. So real rates go up, that cyclical trade works. Real rates go down, and that long-duration or that tech growth trade works. And what’s happening right now is real rates are going higher, tech and high growth are rolling over. That’s a big part of the market.Q: Fed’s Neel Kashkari, who traditionally has been very dovish, is expecting two hikes in 2022. Is that like cold water to the face to some degree?A: Last year, I was a little dumbfounded because we were looking and we were listening to transcripts, we were looking at pricing. I had never seen -- in my more than two decades on Wall Street -- this kind of pricing environment. At one time, I had asked one of my associates, ‘Hey, give me a handful of stocks that are raising prices.’ He said, just pick any three. And at the end of the day, I was surprised that it’s taken this long for the Fed to react. But now the Fed is reacting and you’re seeing breakevens and you’re seeing inflation expectations come down.There was a lot of talk about stagflation two, three, four months ago. You have to take stagflation off the table because the Fed is fighting inflation. The other thing that’s happening is February 1 kicks off Chinese New Year. That’s when goods start to slow into the U.S. I’m not saying the supply-chain is going to be fixed, but really what we think the market will latch onto is: Have we seen peak pressure or peak congestion? Will we be able to make some improvements? And if so, that’s really important because that has significant ramifications for pricing, multiples and margins.Q: You expect a 10% correction by summertime. What makes you confident in that prediction?A: There’s a pervasive belief that the market can bend, but not break. The market can go down 5%, we can break through the 50-day, we can hit the 100-day, but we really can’t collapse. Well, we’re in the second-year recovery, and typically in the second-year recovery you have multiple compression and you have a lot of other interesting things happening. What you have is growth decelerating, you have a more aggressive Fed, you’re lapping very difficult comparisons and you have the speculation.One of the things that’s helped a lot of these names is you’ve had money chasing performance -- when the performance isn’t there, then the money goes away. And we think that people are going to sell weakness for the first time in a while for fundamental reasons, for technical reasons. Another operative word for 2022 is normalization. We’re going to use this word time and time again.Q: What do you recommend to clients as to where they should be invested?A: What we tell them, from the 5,000-foot level, is you want to go up in quality and want to go down in risk. And when we talk about quality, it’s companies with better balance sheets, you want cash on the balance sheet, you want less leverage, you want better management teams, good stewards of capital. And then you want to stay away from the poor secular stories. So you want to focus on more-attractive profit margins. And we just want to stay away from the more risky-type stories because we just don’t think you’re getting paid. A year and a half ago, that was a different story. Right now, you’re not getting paid for that.We’re much more focused on factors and style. And one of the things that we like about quality is one, you’re not paying up. You’re not paying through the nose for higher quality. Two, you’re late in the cycle, and usually late in the cycle is the right time for quality -- quality does better when growth is slowing down as opposed to early in the cycle where growth is really accelerating. And the last thing is quality does much better to the downside. You can participate to the upside, but really our focus is on the downside and quality should help you in that down tape. So, really you want to take on more quality, you want to reduce the risk in the portfolio. It’s time to start building up some dry powder for a rainy day.Q: Is the growth-at-any-price trade dead for good?A: What happens in the equity market, whether you like it or not, is money chases performance, and then when performance isn’t there, money leaves. So you need to see that wash out. We’d like to see a repricing of real rates. We’d like to see us move further in time. We’d like to see another push down in performance. And then we’d like to see that -- I’ll use a very nice graphic phrase -- that cathartic puke where finally we see the sellers exhausted and the final liquidations.It’s hard to say it’s going to happen on this date at this time. No, we don’t know. But these are the signposts that we’re using. And what we said this year is we think the growth-at-any-price-type stocks are going to have a heavy first half because real rates are going to go higher and because of what you’re seeing today. But we left the door open to the second half because you could see a slowing economy, you could see that repricing and you could see that cathartic upchuck, or you could see the sellers exhausted.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2363,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/694393495"}
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