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2022-01-04
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Is Apple Stock Likely To Reach $200 In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股票可能在 2022 年达到 200 美元吗？</blockquote>
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(AAPL) has recently drawn significant interest among investors as the stock has continued to outperform the market since early December. It's notable since AAPL stock has lagged the market for almost the whole year. However, investors' interests spiked following the series of successful new product launches, including its pivotal iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 最近引起了投资者的极大兴趣，因为该股自 12 月初以来持续跑赢大盘。值得注意的是，AAPL 股票几乎一整年都落后于市场。然而，在一系列成功推出新产品（包括关键的 iPhone 13）后，投资者的兴趣激增。</blockquote></p><p>Supply chain checks from numerous sell-side analysts have also demonstrated that the delays over its iPhones have improved markedly. In addition, Goldman Sachs also highlighted that lead times were down significantly in mid-December as Apple continues to leverage strong iPhone demand in its most crucial calendar quarter.</p><p><blockquote>众多卖方分析师对供应链的检查也表明，其 iPhone 的延误已显着改善。此外，高盛还强调，由于苹果在其最关键的季度继续利用强劲的 iPhone 需求，12 月中旬的交货时间大幅缩短。</blockquote></p><p>AAPL stock continues to hold its price steadily, briefly topped a $3T market cap milestone. However, there shouldn't be any doubt that AAPL stock has had an unmistakable long-term uptrend over the years. Moreover, given that the company has multiple long-term secular drivers driving its business model, we are confident that the stock can reach $200 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 股价继续保持稳定，市值短暂突破 3 吨里程碑。然而，毫无疑问，AAPL 股票多年来一直呈现出明确无误的长期上升趋势。此外，鉴于该公司有多个长期的长期驱动力推动其商业模式，我们有信心该股在 2022 年可以达到 200 美元。</blockquote></p><p>We discuss these critical drivers for AAPL stock as we head into 2022 with the $3T market cap looking over the horizon.</p><p><blockquote>随着 AAPL 股票的 3 万美元市值即将到来，我们将讨论 AAPL 股票的这些关键驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p><b>Services Revenue Growth Could Have Been Significantly Understated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务收入增长可能被严重低估</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a837d0ef4f22be5610e00a0a6c3b6a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Apple revenue and adjusted EBITDA mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果收入和调整后 EBITDA 均值共识估计。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Apple bears have often pointed out the deceleration in the company's topline growth as proof of a stock that is massively overvalued. It's easy to understand what they mean. Readers can refer to the chart above, where Apple's revenue growth is estimated to decelerate over the next three years. Consensus estimates point to a revenue CAGR of just 4.6% through FY24. Moreover, its adjusted EBITDA margins are likely to remain consistent. But, AAPL is not projected to gain leverage towards its profitability. Hence, bearish investors claim they don't understand how the Cupertino company can continue to justify its current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>苹果看空者经常指出，该公司营收增长放缓证明该股被严重高估。很容易理解他们的意思。读者可以参考上面的图表，预计未来三年苹果的收入增长将放缓。普遍估计，到 2024 财年，收入复合年增长率仅为 4.6%。此外，其调整后的 EBITDA 利润率可能保持一致。但是，AAPL 预计不会提高其盈利能力。因此，看跌投资者声称他们不明白这家库比蒂诺公司如何继续证明其当前估值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p>But, we think investors need to step back and consider the critical growth drivers for AAPL moving forward. So let us present our analysis.</p><p><blockquote>但是，我们认为投资者需要后退一步，考虑 AAPL 前进的关键增长动力。所以让我们来介绍一下我们的分析。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3850a7b0d906064e94b474a4f50c3fd4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Apple iPhone and services revenue estimates. Data source: Trefis, author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果iPhone和服务收入预测。数据来源：Trefis，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Readers can refer to the above model, where iPhone's revenue is estimated to increase at a CAGR of just 2.2% over the next five years. However, Apple's services segment (including App Store's revenue) is projected to increase its revenue at a CAGR of 11% through FY26, reaching $115B. We think these estimates are relatively conservative. Based on these estimates, a SOTP implied fair value of $159 was reached for AAPL stock. It also includes other segments but was mainly driven by the two critical segments above. iPhone and services accounted for 43% and 25% of its SOTP valuation.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以参考上面的模型，其中iPhone的收入预计在未来五年内以2.2%的CAGR增长。然而，苹果的服务部门（包括 App Store 的收入）预计到 26 财年，其收入将以 11% 的复合年增长率增长，达到 1150 亿美元。我们认为这些估计相对保守。根据这些估计，AAPL 股票的 SOTP 隐含公允价值为 159 美元。它还包括其他分部，但主要由上述两个关键分部推动。iPhone 和服务占其 SOTP 估值的 43% 和 25%。</blockquote></p><p>But, we believe that these estimates may not have captured the multiple growth drivers underpinning the App Store. Why?</p><p><blockquote>但是，我们认为这些估计可能没有抓住支撑应用商店的多种增长动力。为什么？</blockquote></p><p>Based on recent estimates by Sensor Tower, App Store's revenue is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 20.7% through CY25, reaching $185B. Notably, it's way ahead of the estimate of $115B that we discussed earlier for the entire services segment. Importantly, we have not even included revenue from the other services other than App Store's contribution. Therefore, we think that readers need to consider that the Street consensus may have significantly underestimated the prowess of Apple's highly profitable (estimated operating margin > 70%) App Store.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Sensor Tower 最近的估计，到 25 财年，App Store 的收入预计将以 20.7% 的复合年增长率增长，达到 185B 美元。值得注意的是，这远远超出了我们之前讨论的整个服务部门 1150 亿美元的估计。重要的是，我们甚至没有包括除 App Store 贡献之外的其他服务的收入。因此，我们认为读者需要考虑到，华尔街的共识可能大大低估了苹果高利润（估计营业利润率>70%）应用商店的实力。</blockquote></p><p>We are not saying that Sensor Tower's estimate is the source of truth. But, we wanted to highlight that investors should pay more attention to Apple's key services segment. Sensor Tower presented a region by region breakdown, which we thought seemed credible, and we encourage investors to monitor closely.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说传感器塔的估计是真相的来源。但是，我们想强调的是，投资者应该更加关注苹果的关键服务领域。Sensor Tower 提供了按地区划分的细目，我们认为这似乎是可信的，我们鼓励投资者密切关注。</blockquote></p><p><b>Don't Ignore Apple's Metaverse Ambitions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不要忽视苹果的元宇宙野心</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Renowned TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimated that Apple's AR/VR device would be released sometime in Q4'22. We believe this is significant as it augurs well for Apple's ambitions into the metaverse. There's little doubt that Meta Platforms (FB) and Microsoft(MSFT) are strengthening their lead in the consumer and commercial AR/VR space.According to TrendForce, global AR/VR device shipment is estimated to reach 12.02M units, up 26.4% YoY in 2022. Moreover, the market is estimated to grow rapidly through 2025, reaching 25.76M units at a CAGR of 38.8%. Notably, it expects Meta's Oculus devices to maintain a 66% consumer market share. But, TrendForce also noted that (edited):</p><p><blockquote>著名天风国际证券分析师郭明𫓹估计，苹果的AR/VR设备将在2022年第四季度的某个时候发布。我们认为这意义重大，因为它预示着苹果进军元宇宙的雄心。毫无疑问，元平台（FB）和微软（MSFT）正在加强他们在消费者和商业AR/VR领域的领先地位。根据TrendForce的数据，2022年全球AR/VR设备出货量预计将达到1202万台，同比增长26.4%。此外，预计到 2025 年，该市场将快速增长，达到 2576 万辆，CAGR 为 38.8%。值得注意的是，它预计 Meta 的 Oculus 设备将保持 66% 的消费者市场份额。但是，TrendForce 也指出（已编辑）：</blockquote></p><p>AR/VR device suppliers may look to expand their user base and increase their market penetration via low-priced yet high-spec devices,<i>while compensating for their reduced hardware profitability through software sales</i>. (TrendForce)Software sales indeed. Apple runs the largest mobile ecosystem globally, which dwarfs Google Play's (GOOG) (GOOGL) revenue. Therefore, we believe the entry of Apple into the metaverse game could significantly raise the company's monetization opportunities. Theories that Meta Platform has ambitions to displace Apple as the next-gen computing platform abound. However, we have also discussed thatMeta Platforms' eventual metaverse will unlikely be the only virtual world we will ever experience. Instead, the metaverse will likely be a series of interconnected virtual worlds that will be interoperable. So, Apple could still be the critical ecosystem owner as creators build their virtual worlds to be monetized through the App Store, reaching out to Apple's more than 1B (and growing) installed base.</p><p><blockquote>AR/VR设备供应商可能希望通过低价但高规格的设备扩大其用户群并增加其市场渗透率，<i>同时通过软件销售弥补硬件盈利能力的下降</i>.（TrendForce）的确是软件销售。苹果运营着全球最大的移动生态系统，这使得 Google Play (GOOG) (GOOGL) 的收入相形见绌。因此，我们相信苹果进入元宇宙游戏可以显着提高公司的货币化机会。Meta Platform有野心取代苹果成为下一代计算平台的理论比比皆是。然而，我们也讨论过，Meta Platforms 最终的元宇宙不太可能是我们体验的唯一虚拟世界。相反，元宇宙可能是一系列互联的虚拟世界，可以互操作。因此，苹果仍然可能是关键的生态系统所有者，因为创作者构建他们的虚拟世界，通过App Store货币化，接触到苹果超过1B（并且不断增长）的安装基础。</blockquote></p><p>TrendForce also added that global VR content revenue is estimated to grow at a rapid 40% CAGR through 2025, reaching $8.3B. The content will be varied but primarily consisting of "gaming/entertainment, videos, and social interactions." Therefore, Apple can continue to leverage such opportunities through its massive ecosystem. We think these opportunities are so novel that it hasn't even been written into Apple's consensus estimates just yet. But, once Apple's AR/VR devices are launched, we believe that the revenue runway could become even more apparent. However, we must still caution that we are still very early into Apple's metaverse ambitions. But, we believe that Apple will be a critical player in defining the metaverse through its ecosystem. It won't be very smart to consider that Apple doesn't have a clearly-defined metaverse strategy.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce 还补充说，预计到 2025 年，全球 VR 内容收入将以 40% 的复合年增长率快速增长，达到 $8.3B。内容多种多样，但主要包括“游戏/娱乐、视频和社交互动”。因此，苹果可以通过其庞大的生态系统继续利用此类机会。我们认为这些机会是如此新颖，以至于它甚至还没有被写入苹果的共识估计中。但是，一旦苹果的AR/VR设备推出，我们相信收入跑道可能会变得更加明显。然而，我们仍然必须小心，我们对苹果的元宇宙野心还处于非常早期的阶段。但是，我们相信苹果将成为通过其生态系统定义元宇宙的关键参与者。认为苹果没有明确定义的元宇宙战略是不明智的。</blockquote></p><p><b>So, is AAPL Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，AAPL 股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6087fafa5c6ee0f2958f8d29919c3eb5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>AAPL stock EV/NTM EBIT, and Normalized P/E (NTM) 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AAPL 股票 EV/NTM EBIT 和标准化市盈率 (NTM) 3 年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>If you consider AAPL stock's relative valuation against its 3Y mean, there's little doubt that AAPL stock seems expensive. It's trading at an EV/NTM EBIT of 26x, way above its 3Y mean of 19.3x. In addition, its normalized P/E (NTM) also read 31.2x, significantly ahead of its 3Y mean of 23.9x. Therefore, we wouldn't blame bearish investors who think that AAPL stock seems well overvalued now.</p><p><blockquote>如果你考虑 AAPL 股票的相对估值与其 3 年平均值，毫无疑问 AAPL 股票看起来很贵。其 EV/NTM EBIT 为 26 倍，远高于 19.3 倍的 3 年平均水平。此外，其标准化市盈率 (NTM) 也为 31.2 倍，明显高于 3 年平均水平 23.9 倍。因此，我们不会责怪那些认为 AAPL 股票现在似乎被高估的看跌投资者。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c889e6a8aa5fe9751c5d695481f9d3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Apple unlevered FCF estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果无杠杆自由现金流估计。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p>However, we also estimated that AAPL stock would continue to generate robust FCF growth over time. Moreover, our model is even more conservative than the consensus estimates. In addition, we have also not considered Sensor Tower's estimates or Apple's metaverse opportunities that we discussed earlier. Nevertheless, it led us towards a DCF implied fair value estimate of $153, which we highlighted in our previous article. It's also quite close to our SOTP implied fair value of $159 that we showed earlier. Therefore, it's clear that these estimates have not factored for the robust services growth and the potential metaverse opportunities that could accrue to Apple over the next five to ten years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们还估计，随着时间的推移，AAPL 股票将继续产生强劲的自由现金流增长。此外，我们的模型甚至比共识估计更保守。此外，我们也没有考虑我们之前讨论过的 Sensor Tower 的估计或苹果的元宇宙机会。尽管如此，它还是让我们得出了 153 美元的 DCF 隐含公允价值估计值，我们在上一篇文章中强调了这一点。它也非常接近我们之前显示的 SOTP 隐含公允价值 159 美元。因此，很明显，这些估计没有考虑到苹果未来五到十年可能出现的强劲服务增长和潜在的元宇宙机会。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1380b774a68d31c93eaf939fb99e27\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>AAPL stock price action.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AAPL 股价走势。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Nevertheless, we think that AAPL stock looks extended, as seen above. But, as mentioned, it wouldn't be very smart for investors to bet against CEO Tim Cook & Co. The stock's long-term uptrend is clear for all to observe.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们认为 AAPL 股票看起来很长，如上所述。但是，如前所述，投资者做空首席执行官蒂姆·库克公司并不是很明智。该股的长期上升趋势有目共睹。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>So, we are clear that the stock would likely break the $200 level in 2022 as the excitement surrounding its AR/VR launch gets closers, coupled with its services segment revenue growth in its earnings releases. As a result, we believe that AAPL's stock price could be re-rated to reflect its potential over the next year.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们很清楚，随着围绕其 AR/VR 发布的兴奋感越来越近，加上其服务部门在财报发布中的收入增长，该股可能会在 2022 年突破 200 美元水平。因此，我们认为 AAPL 的股价可能会被重新评级，以反映其明年的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>Nevertheless, due to its over-extended price action, we encourage some patience with AAPL stock. But, if you have no AAPL stock, we think you can consider adding at this price if you are a long-term investor. We don't believe it's significantly overvalued, as discussed earlier. But, if you already have considerable exposure relative to your portfolio, we think you can wait for a potentially better entry point with some patience.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，由于其过度延长的价格走势，我们鼓励对 AAPL 股票保持一定的耐心。但是，如果您没有 AAPL 股票，我们认为如果您是长期投资者，您可以考虑以这个价格增持。如前所述，我们不认为它被严重高估。但是，如果您相对于您的投资组合已经有相当大的敞口，我们认为您可以耐心等待潜在的更好的切入点。</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, we reiterate our Neutral rating on AAPL stock for now.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们目前重申对 AAPL 股票的中性评级。</blockquote></p><p>This article was written by JR Research.</p><p><blockquote>本文由JR Research撰写。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock Likely To Reach $200 In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股票可能在 2022 年达到 200 美元吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock Likely To Reach $200 In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股票可能在 2022 年达到 200 美元吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-04 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Apple stock received a lot of interest recently as it surged in early December and has maintained its market outperformance.</li><li>We discuss the critical drivers for investors to watch moving into 2022.</li><li>We also discuss whether Apple stock is likely to reach $200 moving forward.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股票最近受到了很多关注，因为它在12月初飙升，并保持了优于市场的表现。</li><li>我们讨论了投资者进入2022年需要关注的关键驱动因素。</li><li>我们还讨论了苹果股票未来是否有可能达到 200 美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p>Apple Inc. (AAPL) has recently drawn significant interest among investors as the stock has continued to outperform the market since early December. It's notable since AAPL stock has lagged the market for almost the whole year. However, investors' interests spiked following the series of successful new product launches, including its pivotal iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 最近引起了投资者的极大兴趣，因为该股自 12 月初以来持续跑赢大盘。值得注意的是，AAPL 股票几乎一整年都落后于市场。然而，在一系列成功推出新产品（包括关键的 iPhone 13）后，投资者的兴趣激增。</blockquote></p><p>Supply chain checks from numerous sell-side analysts have also demonstrated that the delays over its iPhones have improved markedly. In addition, Goldman Sachs also highlighted that lead times were down significantly in mid-December as Apple continues to leverage strong iPhone demand in its most crucial calendar quarter.</p><p><blockquote>众多卖方分析师对供应链的检查也表明，其 iPhone 的延误已显着改善。此外，高盛还强调，由于苹果在其最关键的季度继续利用强劲的 iPhone 需求，12 月中旬的交货时间大幅缩短。</blockquote></p><p>AAPL stock continues to hold its price steadily, briefly topped a $3T market cap milestone. However, there shouldn't be any doubt that AAPL stock has had an unmistakable long-term uptrend over the years. Moreover, given that the company has multiple long-term secular drivers driving its business model, we are confident that the stock can reach $200 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 股价继续保持稳定，市值短暂突破 3 吨里程碑。然而，毫无疑问，AAPL 股票多年来一直呈现出明确无误的长期上升趋势。此外，鉴于该公司有多个长期的长期驱动力推动其商业模式，我们有信心该股在 2022 年可以达到 200 美元。</blockquote></p><p>We discuss these critical drivers for AAPL stock as we head into 2022 with the $3T market cap looking over the horizon.</p><p><blockquote>随着 AAPL 股票的 3 万美元市值即将到来，我们将讨论 AAPL 股票的这些关键驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p><b>Services Revenue Growth Could Have Been Significantly Understated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务收入增长可能被严重低估</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a837d0ef4f22be5610e00a0a6c3b6a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Apple revenue and adjusted EBITDA mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果收入和调整后 EBITDA 均值共识估计。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Apple bears have often pointed out the deceleration in the company's topline growth as proof of a stock that is massively overvalued. It's easy to understand what they mean. Readers can refer to the chart above, where Apple's revenue growth is estimated to decelerate over the next three years. Consensus estimates point to a revenue CAGR of just 4.6% through FY24. Moreover, its adjusted EBITDA margins are likely to remain consistent. But, AAPL is not projected to gain leverage towards its profitability. Hence, bearish investors claim they don't understand how the Cupertino company can continue to justify its current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>苹果看空者经常指出，该公司营收增长放缓证明该股被严重高估。很容易理解他们的意思。读者可以参考上面的图表，预计未来三年苹果的收入增长将放缓。普遍估计，到 2024 财年，收入复合年增长率仅为 4.6%。此外，其调整后的 EBITDA 利润率可能保持一致。但是，AAPL 预计不会提高其盈利能力。因此，看跌投资者声称他们不明白这家库比蒂诺公司如何继续证明其当前估值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p>But, we think investors need to step back and consider the critical growth drivers for AAPL moving forward. So let us present our analysis.</p><p><blockquote>但是，我们认为投资者需要后退一步，考虑 AAPL 前进的关键增长动力。所以让我们来介绍一下我们的分析。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3850a7b0d906064e94b474a4f50c3fd4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Apple iPhone and services revenue estimates. Data source: Trefis, author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果iPhone和服务收入预测。数据来源：Trefis，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Readers can refer to the above model, where iPhone's revenue is estimated to increase at a CAGR of just 2.2% over the next five years. However, Apple's services segment (including App Store's revenue) is projected to increase its revenue at a CAGR of 11% through FY26, reaching $115B. We think these estimates are relatively conservative. Based on these estimates, a SOTP implied fair value of $159 was reached for AAPL stock. It also includes other segments but was mainly driven by the two critical segments above. iPhone and services accounted for 43% and 25% of its SOTP valuation.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以参考上面的模型，其中iPhone的收入预计在未来五年内以2.2%的CAGR增长。然而，苹果的服务部门（包括 App Store 的收入）预计到 26 财年，其收入将以 11% 的复合年增长率增长，达到 1150 亿美元。我们认为这些估计相对保守。根据这些估计，AAPL 股票的 SOTP 隐含公允价值为 159 美元。它还包括其他分部，但主要由上述两个关键分部推动。iPhone 和服务占其 SOTP 估值的 43% 和 25%。</blockquote></p><p>But, we believe that these estimates may not have captured the multiple growth drivers underpinning the App Store. Why?</p><p><blockquote>但是，我们认为这些估计可能没有抓住支撑应用商店的多种增长动力。为什么？</blockquote></p><p>Based on recent estimates by Sensor Tower, App Store's revenue is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 20.7% through CY25, reaching $185B. Notably, it's way ahead of the estimate of $115B that we discussed earlier for the entire services segment. Importantly, we have not even included revenue from the other services other than App Store's contribution. Therefore, we think that readers need to consider that the Street consensus may have significantly underestimated the prowess of Apple's highly profitable (estimated operating margin > 70%) App Store.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Sensor Tower 最近的估计，到 25 财年，App Store 的收入预计将以 20.7% 的复合年增长率增长，达到 185B 美元。值得注意的是，这远远超出了我们之前讨论的整个服务部门 1150 亿美元的估计。重要的是，我们甚至没有包括除 App Store 贡献之外的其他服务的收入。因此，我们认为读者需要考虑到，华尔街的共识可能大大低估了苹果高利润（估计营业利润率>70%）应用商店的实力。</blockquote></p><p>We are not saying that Sensor Tower's estimate is the source of truth. But, we wanted to highlight that investors should pay more attention to Apple's key services segment. Sensor Tower presented a region by region breakdown, which we thought seemed credible, and we encourage investors to monitor closely.</p><p><blockquote>我们并不是说传感器塔的估计是真相的来源。但是，我们想强调的是，投资者应该更加关注苹果的关键服务领域。Sensor Tower 提供了按地区划分的细目，我们认为这似乎是可信的，我们鼓励投资者密切关注。</blockquote></p><p><b>Don't Ignore Apple's Metaverse Ambitions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不要忽视苹果的元宇宙野心</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Renowned TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimated that Apple's AR/VR device would be released sometime in Q4'22. We believe this is significant as it augurs well for Apple's ambitions into the metaverse. There's little doubt that Meta Platforms (FB) and Microsoft(MSFT) are strengthening their lead in the consumer and commercial AR/VR space.According to TrendForce, global AR/VR device shipment is estimated to reach 12.02M units, up 26.4% YoY in 2022. Moreover, the market is estimated to grow rapidly through 2025, reaching 25.76M units at a CAGR of 38.8%. Notably, it expects Meta's Oculus devices to maintain a 66% consumer market share. But, TrendForce also noted that (edited):</p><p><blockquote>著名天风国际证券分析师郭明𫓹估计，苹果的AR/VR设备将在2022年第四季度的某个时候发布。我们认为这意义重大，因为它预示着苹果进军元宇宙的雄心。毫无疑问，元平台（FB）和微软（MSFT）正在加强他们在消费者和商业AR/VR领域的领先地位。根据TrendForce的数据，2022年全球AR/VR设备出货量预计将达到1202万台，同比增长26.4%。此外，预计到 2025 年，该市场将快速增长，达到 2576 万辆，CAGR 为 38.8%。值得注意的是，它预计 Meta 的 Oculus 设备将保持 66% 的消费者市场份额。但是，TrendForce 也指出（已编辑）：</blockquote></p><p>AR/VR device suppliers may look to expand their user base and increase their market penetration via low-priced yet high-spec devices,<i>while compensating for their reduced hardware profitability through software sales</i>. (TrendForce)Software sales indeed. Apple runs the largest mobile ecosystem globally, which dwarfs Google Play's (GOOG) (GOOGL) revenue. Therefore, we believe the entry of Apple into the metaverse game could significantly raise the company's monetization opportunities. Theories that Meta Platform has ambitions to displace Apple as the next-gen computing platform abound. However, we have also discussed thatMeta Platforms' eventual metaverse will unlikely be the only virtual world we will ever experience. Instead, the metaverse will likely be a series of interconnected virtual worlds that will be interoperable. So, Apple could still be the critical ecosystem owner as creators build their virtual worlds to be monetized through the App Store, reaching out to Apple's more than 1B (and growing) installed base.</p><p><blockquote>AR/VR设备供应商可能希望通过低价但高规格的设备扩大其用户群并增加其市场渗透率，<i>同时通过软件销售弥补硬件盈利能力的下降</i>.（TrendForce）的确是软件销售。苹果运营着全球最大的移动生态系统，这使得 Google Play (GOOG) (GOOGL) 的收入相形见绌。因此，我们相信苹果进入元宇宙游戏可以显着提高公司的货币化机会。Meta Platform有野心取代苹果成为下一代计算平台的理论比比皆是。然而，我们也讨论过，Meta Platforms 最终的元宇宙不太可能是我们体验的唯一虚拟世界。相反，元宇宙可能是一系列互联的虚拟世界，可以互操作。因此，苹果仍然可能是关键的生态系统所有者，因为创作者构建他们的虚拟世界，通过App Store货币化，接触到苹果超过1B（并且不断增长）的安装基础。</blockquote></p><p>TrendForce also added that global VR content revenue is estimated to grow at a rapid 40% CAGR through 2025, reaching $8.3B. The content will be varied but primarily consisting of "gaming/entertainment, videos, and social interactions." Therefore, Apple can continue to leverage such opportunities through its massive ecosystem. We think these opportunities are so novel that it hasn't even been written into Apple's consensus estimates just yet. But, once Apple's AR/VR devices are launched, we believe that the revenue runway could become even more apparent. However, we must still caution that we are still very early into Apple's metaverse ambitions. But, we believe that Apple will be a critical player in defining the metaverse through its ecosystem. It won't be very smart to consider that Apple doesn't have a clearly-defined metaverse strategy.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce 还补充说，预计到 2025 年，全球 VR 内容收入将以 40% 的复合年增长率快速增长，达到 $8.3B。内容多种多样，但主要包括“游戏/娱乐、视频和社交互动”。因此，苹果可以通过其庞大的生态系统继续利用此类机会。我们认为这些机会是如此新颖，以至于它甚至还没有被写入苹果的共识估计中。但是，一旦苹果的AR/VR设备推出，我们相信收入跑道可能会变得更加明显。然而，我们仍然必须小心，我们对苹果的元宇宙野心还处于非常早期的阶段。但是，我们相信苹果将成为通过其生态系统定义元宇宙的关键参与者。认为苹果没有明确定义的元宇宙战略是不明智的。</blockquote></p><p><b>So, is AAPL Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，AAPL 股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6087fafa5c6ee0f2958f8d29919c3eb5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>AAPL stock EV/NTM EBIT, and Normalized P/E (NTM) 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AAPL 股票 EV/NTM EBIT 和标准化市盈率 (NTM) 3 年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>If you consider AAPL stock's relative valuation against its 3Y mean, there's little doubt that AAPL stock seems expensive. It's trading at an EV/NTM EBIT of 26x, way above its 3Y mean of 19.3x. In addition, its normalized P/E (NTM) also read 31.2x, significantly ahead of its 3Y mean of 23.9x. Therefore, we wouldn't blame bearish investors who think that AAPL stock seems well overvalued now.</p><p><blockquote>如果你考虑 AAPL 股票的相对估值与其 3 年平均值，毫无疑问 AAPL 股票看起来很贵。其 EV/NTM EBIT 为 26 倍，远高于 19.3 倍的 3 年平均水平。此外，其标准化市盈率 (NTM) 也为 31.2 倍，明显高于 3 年平均水平 23.9 倍。因此，我们不会责怪那些认为 AAPL 股票现在似乎被高估的看跌投资者。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c889e6a8aa5fe9751c5d695481f9d3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Apple unlevered FCF estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果无杠杆自由现金流估计。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p>However, we also estimated that AAPL stock would continue to generate robust FCF growth over time. Moreover, our model is even more conservative than the consensus estimates. In addition, we have also not considered Sensor Tower's estimates or Apple's metaverse opportunities that we discussed earlier. Nevertheless, it led us towards a DCF implied fair value estimate of $153, which we highlighted in our previous article. It's also quite close to our SOTP implied fair value of $159 that we showed earlier. Therefore, it's clear that these estimates have not factored for the robust services growth and the potential metaverse opportunities that could accrue to Apple over the next five to ten years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们还估计，随着时间的推移，AAPL 股票将继续产生强劲的自由现金流增长。此外，我们的模型甚至比共识估计更保守。此外，我们也没有考虑我们之前讨论过的 Sensor Tower 的估计或苹果的元宇宙机会。尽管如此，它还是让我们得出了 153 美元的 DCF 隐含公允价值估计值，我们在上一篇文章中强调了这一点。它也非常接近我们之前显示的 SOTP 隐含公允价值 159 美元。因此，很明显，这些估计没有考虑到苹果未来五到十年可能出现的强劲服务增长和潜在的元宇宙机会。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1380b774a68d31c93eaf939fb99e27\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>AAPL stock price action.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AAPL 股价走势。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Nevertheless, we think that AAPL stock looks extended, as seen above. But, as mentioned, it wouldn't be very smart for investors to bet against CEO Tim Cook & Co. The stock's long-term uptrend is clear for all to observe.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们认为 AAPL 股票看起来很长，如上所述。但是，如前所述，投资者做空首席执行官蒂姆·库克公司并不是很明智。该股的长期上升趋势有目共睹。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>So, we are clear that the stock would likely break the $200 level in 2022 as the excitement surrounding its AR/VR launch gets closers, coupled with its services segment revenue growth in its earnings releases. As a result, we believe that AAPL's stock price could be re-rated to reflect its potential over the next year.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们很清楚，随着围绕其 AR/VR 发布的兴奋感越来越近，加上其服务部门在财报发布中的收入增长，该股可能会在 2022 年突破 200 美元水平。因此，我们认为 AAPL 的股价可能会被重新评级，以反映其明年的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>Nevertheless, due to its over-extended price action, we encourage some patience with AAPL stock. But, if you have no AAPL stock, we think you can consider adding at this price if you are a long-term investor. We don't believe it's significantly overvalued, as discussed earlier. But, if you already have considerable exposure relative to your portfolio, we think you can wait for a potentially better entry point with some patience.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，由于其过度延长的价格走势，我们鼓励对 AAPL 股票保持一定的耐心。但是，如果您没有 AAPL 股票，我们认为如果您是长期投资者，您可以考虑以这个价格增持。如前所述，我们不认为它被严重高估。但是，如果您相对于您的投资组合已经有相当大的敞口，我们认为您可以耐心等待潜在的更好的切入点。</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, we reiterate our Neutral rating on AAPL stock for now.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们目前重申对 AAPL 股票的中性评级。</blockquote></p><p>This article was written by JR Research.</p><p><blockquote>本文由JR Research撰写。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477741-apple-stock-reach-200-in-2022\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477741-apple-stock-reach-200-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179133564","content_text":"SummaryApple stock received a lot of interest recently as it surged in early December and has maintained its market outperformance.We discuss the critical drivers for investors to watch moving into 2022.We also discuss whether Apple stock is likely to reach $200 moving forward.Justin Sullivan/Getty Images NewsInvestment ThesisApple Inc. (AAPL) has recently drawn significant interest among investors as the stock has continued to outperform the market since early December. It's notable since AAPL stock has lagged the market for almost the whole year. However, investors' interests spiked following the series of successful new product launches, including its pivotal iPhone 13.Supply chain checks from numerous sell-side analysts have also demonstrated that the delays over its iPhones have improved markedly. In addition, Goldman Sachs also highlighted that lead times were down significantly in mid-December as Apple continues to leverage strong iPhone demand in its most crucial calendar quarter.AAPL stock continues to hold its price steadily, briefly topped a $3T market cap milestone. However, there shouldn't be any doubt that AAPL stock has had an unmistakable long-term uptrend over the years. Moreover, given that the company has multiple long-term secular drivers driving its business model, we are confident that the stock can reach $200 in 2022.We discuss these critical drivers for AAPL stock as we head into 2022 with the $3T market cap looking over the horizon.Services Revenue Growth Could Have Been Significantly UnderstatedApple revenue and adjusted EBITDA mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQApple bears have often pointed out the deceleration in the company's topline growth as proof of a stock that is massively overvalued. It's easy to understand what they mean. Readers can refer to the chart above, where Apple's revenue growth is estimated to decelerate over the next three years. Consensus estimates point to a revenue CAGR of just 4.6% through FY24. Moreover, its adjusted EBITDA margins are likely to remain consistent. But, AAPL is not projected to gain leverage towards its profitability. Hence, bearish investors claim they don't understand how the Cupertino company can continue to justify its current valuation.But, we think investors need to step back and consider the critical growth drivers for AAPL moving forward. So let us present our analysis.Apple iPhone and services revenue estimates. Data source: Trefis, authorReaders can refer to the above model, where iPhone's revenue is estimated to increase at a CAGR of just 2.2% over the next five years. However, Apple's services segment (including App Store's revenue) is projected to increase its revenue at a CAGR of 11% through FY26, reaching $115B. We think these estimates are relatively conservative. Based on these estimates, a SOTP implied fair value of $159 was reached for AAPL stock. It also includes other segments but was mainly driven by the two critical segments above. iPhone and services accounted for 43% and 25% of its SOTP valuation.But, we believe that these estimates may not have captured the multiple growth drivers underpinning the App Store. Why?Based on recent estimates by Sensor Tower, App Store's revenue is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 20.7% through CY25, reaching $185B. Notably, it's way ahead of the estimate of $115B that we discussed earlier for the entire services segment. Importantly, we have not even included revenue from the other services other than App Store's contribution. Therefore, we think that readers need to consider that the Street consensus may have significantly underestimated the prowess of Apple's highly profitable (estimated operating margin > 70%) App Store.We are not saying that Sensor Tower's estimate is the source of truth. But, we wanted to highlight that investors should pay more attention to Apple's key services segment. Sensor Tower presented a region by region breakdown, which we thought seemed credible, and we encourage investors to monitor closely.Don't Ignore Apple's Metaverse AmbitionsRenowned TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimated that Apple's AR/VR device would be released sometime in Q4'22. We believe this is significant as it augurs well for Apple's ambitions into the metaverse. There's little doubt that Meta Platforms (FB) and Microsoft(MSFT) are strengthening their lead in the consumer and commercial AR/VR space.According to TrendForce, global AR/VR device shipment is estimated to reach 12.02M units, up 26.4% YoY in 2022. Moreover, the market is estimated to grow rapidly through 2025, reaching 25.76M units at a CAGR of 38.8%. Notably, it expects Meta's Oculus devices to maintain a 66% consumer market share. But, TrendForce also noted that (edited):AR/VR device suppliers may look to expand their user base and increase their market penetration via low-priced yet high-spec devices,while compensating for their reduced hardware profitability through software sales. (TrendForce)Software sales indeed. Apple runs the largest mobile ecosystem globally, which dwarfs Google Play's (GOOG) (GOOGL) revenue. Therefore, we believe the entry of Apple into the metaverse game could significantly raise the company's monetization opportunities. Theories that Meta Platform has ambitions to displace Apple as the next-gen computing platform abound. However, we have also discussed thatMeta Platforms' eventual metaverse will unlikely be the only virtual world we will ever experience. Instead, the metaverse will likely be a series of interconnected virtual worlds that will be interoperable. So, Apple could still be the critical ecosystem owner as creators build their virtual worlds to be monetized through the App Store, reaching out to Apple's more than 1B (and growing) installed base.TrendForce also added that global VR content revenue is estimated to grow at a rapid 40% CAGR through 2025, reaching $8.3B. The content will be varied but primarily consisting of \"gaming/entertainment, videos, and social interactions.\" Therefore, Apple can continue to leverage such opportunities through its massive ecosystem. We think these opportunities are so novel that it hasn't even been written into Apple's consensus estimates just yet. But, once Apple's AR/VR devices are launched, we believe that the revenue runway could become even more apparent. However, we must still caution that we are still very early into Apple's metaverse ambitions. But, we believe that Apple will be a critical player in defining the metaverse through its ecosystem. It won't be very smart to consider that Apple doesn't have a clearly-defined metaverse strategy.So, is AAPL Stock a Buy Now?AAPL stock EV/NTM EBIT, and Normalized P/E (NTM) 3Y mean.If you consider AAPL stock's relative valuation against its 3Y mean, there's little doubt that AAPL stock seems expensive. It's trading at an EV/NTM EBIT of 26x, way above its 3Y mean of 19.3x. In addition, its normalized P/E (NTM) also read 31.2x, significantly ahead of its 3Y mean of 23.9x. Therefore, we wouldn't blame bearish investors who think that AAPL stock seems well overvalued now.Apple unlevered FCF estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, authorHowever, we also estimated that AAPL stock would continue to generate robust FCF growth over time. Moreover, our model is even more conservative than the consensus estimates. In addition, we have also not considered Sensor Tower's estimates or Apple's metaverse opportunities that we discussed earlier. Nevertheless, it led us towards a DCF implied fair value estimate of $153, which we highlighted in our previous article. It's also quite close to our SOTP implied fair value of $159 that we showed earlier. Therefore, it's clear that these estimates have not factored for the robust services growth and the potential metaverse opportunities that could accrue to Apple over the next five to ten years.AAPL stock price action.Nevertheless, we think that AAPL stock looks extended, as seen above. But, as mentioned, it wouldn't be very smart for investors to bet against CEO Tim Cook & Co. The stock's long-term uptrend is clear for all to observe.So, we are clear that the stock would likely break the $200 level in 2022 as the excitement surrounding its AR/VR launch gets closers, coupled with its services segment revenue growth in its earnings releases. As a result, we believe that AAPL's stock price could be re-rated to reflect its potential over the next year.Nevertheless, due to its over-extended price action, we encourage some patience with AAPL stock. But, if you have no AAPL stock, we think you can consider adding at this price if you are a long-term investor. We don't believe it's significantly overvalued, as discussed earlier. But, if you already have considerable exposure relative to your portfolio, we think you can wait for a potentially better entry point with some patience.Therefore, we reiterate our Neutral rating on AAPL stock for now.This article was written by JR Research.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1382,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/695055789"}
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