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2022-01-05

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Nvidia's Bull Run May Continue, But Micron Is A Better Pick<blockquote>英伟达的牛市可能会持续，但美光是更好的选择</blockquote>

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From a purely business perspective, Nvidia&#39;s capital-light operations and market leadership make it preferable. However, at a 6x cheaper valuation, Micron is the better buy now.<blockquote>英伟达（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）和美光（纳斯达克股票代码：MU）都是半导体巨头，受益于数据中心、自动驾驶汽车和其他高科技领域的强劲增长趋势。从纯粹的商业角度来看，英伟达的轻资本运营和市场领导地位使其更受青睐。然而，美光科技的估值便宜了6倍，现在更值得买入。</blockquote>Introduction<blockquote>介绍</blockquote>Nvidia&#39;s bull run over the past couple years made it by far the most valuable semiconductor company. In fact, it&#39;s now the 8th most valuable company in the world. Among semiconductor companies, only TSMC (NYSE:TSM) joins it in the top 25. This status has given Nvidia a reputation as the premier &#34;picks and shovels&#34; play of futuristic tech.<blockquote>英伟达过去几年的牛市使其成为迄今为止最有价值的半导体公司。事实上，它现在是世界上第八大最有价值的公司。在半导体公司中，只有台积电（NYSE：TSM）加入了前25名。这一地位使英伟达赢得了未来科技领域首屈一指的“镐和铲子”游戏的声誉。</blockquote>It&#39;s certainly true that Nvidia isapicks and shovels play. Nvidia&#39;s GPUs - which specialize in highly parallelized computing like graphics - are increasingly important in areas like data centers, cryptocurrency mining, and self-driving cars. Companies like Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are ramping up spending in these fields, which in Meta&#39;s case reportedly includes an all-in bet on Nvidia&#39;s GPUs. Widespread demand created a shortage of Nvidia products and drove the bull run that 6xed the stock from its March 2020 lows.<blockquote>英伟达确实是一个镐和铲子玩。英伟达的GPU专门从事图形等高度并行计算，在数据中心、加密货币挖掘和自动驾驶汽车等领域变得越来越重要。Meta（纳斯达克股票代码：FB）等公司正在增加这些领域的支出，据报道，就Meta而言，这包括对Nvidia GPU的全力押注。广泛的需求造成了Nvidia产品的短缺，并推动了牛市，该股较2020年3月的低点上涨了6倍。</blockquote>However, over half of that performance was driven by multiple expansion. Nvidia bottomed at 35 P/E in 2020, and now stands at nearly 100. This lofty multiple makes Nvidia look much further ahead of its semiconductor peers than it actually is.<blockquote>然而，超过一半的业绩是由多重扩张推动的。英伟达的市盈率在2020年跌至35倍，目前接近100倍。如此高的市盈率使英伟达比实际情况遥遥领先于半导体同行。</blockquote>To illustrate, Micron - which at a $104B market cap and P/E of 14 has flown comparatively under the radar - actually has more revenue than Nvidia. In the last 12 months, they brought in $27.7B compared to $24.3B from Nvidia. If Nvidia&#39;s P/E was applied to Micron, it would have a $713B market cap... just 5.6% smaller than Nvidia&#39;s.<blockquote>举例来说，美光科技的市值为1040亿美元，市盈率为14，相对来说并不为人所知，但它的收入实际上比英伟达还要多。在过去12个月中，他们的收入为277亿美元，而Nvidia的收入为243亿美元。如果将Nvidia的市盈率应用于美光科技，其市值将达到713B美元……仅比英伟达小5.6%。</blockquote>From a business perspective, there&#39;s not much similarity between these two companies besides the fact that they both design semiconductors.<blockquote>从商业角度来看，除了都设计半导体之外，这两家公司之间没有太多相似之处。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/200b841ba17e382317f5508778ebf9ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote>Nvidia focuses on GPUs, a product that it invented. It has 83% market share, excluding integrated GPUs where Intel leads. This market share is partially protected by intellectual property.<blockquote>英伟达专注于GPU，这是它发明的产品。它拥有83%的市场份额，不包括英特尔领先的集成GPU。这一市场份额部分受到知识产权的保护。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0ecfd56031c9bfeb18ff874dc722363\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: TECHDesign<blockquote>资料来源：TECHDesign</blockquote>On the other hand, Micron is a distant third in DRAM market share and only fifth in the crowded NAND space. Unlike Nvidia, Micron manufactures chips in addition to designing them and doesn&#39;t seem to have a noteworthy advantage when it comes to intellectual property.<blockquote>另一方面，美光在DRAM市场份额上远远落后于第三名，在拥挤的NAND领域仅排名第五。与英伟达不同，美光除了设计芯片之外还制造芯片，在知识产权方面似乎没有明显的优势。</blockquote>DRAM and NAND are two types of memory chips. While GPUs specialize in performing a lot of operations very quickly, memory chips focus on storing a lot of information.<blockquote>DRAM和NAND是两种类型的存储芯片。GPU擅长非常快速地执行大量操作，而内存芯片则专注于存储大量信息。</blockquote>Memory chips are used alongside GPUs, and don&#39;t compete directly with them. Micron is partnered with Nvidia on a variety of offerings, helping both companies benefit from the same growth trends. In particular, both companies have highlighted AI, 5G, IoT, gaming, industrial, blockchain, the metaverse, and auto as areas that will drive future growth.<blockquote>内存芯片与GPU一起使用，并不与GPU直接竞争。美光科技与英伟达在多种产品上合作，帮助两家公司从相同的增长趋势中受益。特别是，两家公司都强调人工智能、5G、物联网、游戏、工业、区块链、元宇宙和汽车是推动未来增长的领域。</blockquote>In the rest of this article, I&#39;ll explain why Nvidia&#39;s growth rate over the past year may not be sustainable, while Micron&#39;s future growth may be even better than it was in the past.<blockquote>在本文的其余部分，我将解释为什么英伟达过去一年的增长率可能不可持续，而美光未来的增长可能会比过去更好。</blockquote>Nvidia&#39;s Growth Trajectory<blockquote>英伟达的增长轨迹</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74dbfacbd6ae03fb40883b5dfea2bbf8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"76\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote>According to Seeking Alpha, analysts project a 16-18% revenue and earnings CAGR for Nvidia over the next two years. For comparison, Nvidia is wrapping up a year where it will have grown earnings by about 73%.<blockquote>根据Seeking Alpha的数据，分析师预计英伟达未来两年收入和盈利复合年增长率为16-18%。相比之下，英伟达今年的盈利将增长约73%。</blockquote>What&#39;s causing the deceleration? One place to look is prior to 2021. Between 2005 and 2020, Nvidia&#39;s revenue grew at a CAGR of 12%. Adding 2021&#39;s historic growth brings it to 14% CAGR. So analysts are projecting slightly elevated growth relative to historic levels, which I think is reasonable. This level of growth is very impressive, and it was enough for Nvidia to generate strong returns even prior to this year.<blockquote>是什么导致了减速？一个值得关注的地方是2021年之前。2005年至2020年间，英伟达的收入复合年增长率为12%。加上2021年的历史性增长，CAGR达到14%。因此，分析师预计增长相对于历史水平略有上升，我认为这是合理的。这种增长水平非常令人印象深刻，甚至在今年之前就足以让英伟达产生强劲的回报。</blockquote>This growth is also above the industry average. Since 2008, the only large cap semiconductor company with a revenue CAGR above 15% is Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), which only broke this threshold due to acquisitions. Keep in mind that this is during the biggest tech bull run ever.<blockquote>这一增长也高于行业平均水平。自2008年以来，唯一一家营收复合年增长率超过15%的大型半导体公司是博通（纳斯达克：AVGO），该公司只是因为收购才突破了这一门槛。请记住，这是有史以来最大的科技牛市。</blockquote>Famous investor Peter Lynch was skeptical of any company growing faster than 20% because of the difficulty of sustaining that growth, and the lack of exceptions to this rule in the semiconductor industry seems to prove him right. (There are plenty of exceptions in software though.)<blockquote>著名投资者彼得·林奇(Peter Lynch)对任何公司的增长速度超过20%持怀疑态度，因为很难维持这种增长，而半导体行业中这一规则缺乏例外似乎证明他是对的。（不过，软件中也有很多例外。）</blockquote>At nearly 100 P/E and growing off of its largest revenue base ever, 2021 will be a difficult act for Nvidia to follow. Nvidia will have to grow significantly faster than 18% per year to justify its valuation relative to peers, since 18% growth would still put its PEG ratio above 5. If Nvidia delivers on its projected growth and trades flat for the next two years, it will have aforwardP/E of 49.<blockquote>Nvidia的市盈率接近100，并且在其有史以来最大的收入基础上不断增长，2021年对于Nvidia来说将是一个艰难的时期。英伟达的年增长率必须明显高于18%，才能证明其相对于同行的估值合理，因为18%的增长率仍将使其PEG比率高于5。如果英伟达实现其预期增长并且未来两年的交易持平，它将拥有向前市盈率为49。</blockquote>It&#39;s also worth noting that semiconductor revenue is cyclical, so this isn&#39;t the first time that Nvidia has experienced strong growth. In both 2008 and 2018, Nvidia had growth of 34% of higher, but those years were followed by growth of -16% and 21% in the next year.<blockquote>还值得注意的是，半导体收入具有周期性，因此这并不是英伟达第一次经历强劲增长。2008年和2018年，英伟达的增长率均为34%或更高，但这几年的增长率分别为-16%和21%。</blockquote>Just to highlight one area where growth doesn&#39;t look sustainable, Nvidia benefited from the increasing popularity of cryptocurrency in 2021. Nvidia has stated that it doesn&#39;t have visibility into exactly how much demand from crypto impacts revenue, but its products are used to mine cryptocurrency like Bitcoin (BTC-USD).<blockquote>只是为了强调一个增长看起来不可持续的领域，英伟达受益于2021年加密货币的日益普及。英伟达表示，它无法准确了解加密货币需求对收入的影响程度，但其产品用于挖掘比特币（BTC-USD）等加密货币。</blockquote>I&#39;m certainly not so bold as to call a top in Bitcoin, but historically it has been the case that the year after a halving has marked the start of a Bitcoin bear market. Additionally, altcoins that use proof of stake (including Ethereum, which will switch to proof of stake in 2022) have been gaining market share on Bitcoin. Proof of stake doesn&#39;t need Nvidia&#39;s GPUs because it doesn&#39;t do as much computation.<blockquote>我当然没有那么大胆地认为看涨期权是比特币的顶部，但从历史上看，减半后的一年标志着比特币熊市的开始。此外，使用权益证明的山寨币（包括以太币，将于2022年改用权益证明）一直在比特币上获得市场份额。权益证明不需要英伟达的GPU，因为它不做那么多计算。</blockquote>Micron benefits from cryptocurrency as well, since miners need a lot of power and a lot of memory. But the market&#39;s perception seems to be that Nvidia benefits more based on the well publicized GPU shortages related to mining, which could negatively impact Nvidia&#39;s stock if Bitcoin crashes. Additionally, Micron would not be as impacted by a switch to proof of stake.<blockquote>美光也受益于加密货币，因为矿工需要大量的电力和大量的内存。但市场的看法似乎是，基于广为人知的与采矿相关的GPU短缺，英伟达受益更多，如果比特币崩盘，这可能会对英伟达的股票产生负面影响。此外，美光科技不会受到转向股权证明的影响。</blockquote>Focusing only on cryptocurrency is a disservice to Nvidia&#39;s strong growth across the board. Revenue is growing rapidly in every segment:<blockquote>只关注加密货币不利于英伟达的全面强劲增长。每个细分市场的收入都在快速增长：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcb18bde54e264f60139107ea74aba67\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: The Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote>These segments all have enormous potential, and that could let Nvidia continue to grow quickly for years. I&#39;m not ruling out the possibility that Nvidia beats estimates and has positive returns in 2022 or the following years. Over the long term, I have no doubt that they will continue to grow revenue and do very well. I just see better places to deploy capital now, which brings us to Micron.<blockquote>这些细分市场都具有巨大的潜力，这可能会让英伟达继续快速增长多年。我不排除Nvidia超出预期并在2022年或随后几年获得正回报的可能性。从长远来看，我毫不怀疑他们的收入将继续增长并且表现出色。我只是看到了现在部署资本的更好地方，这就把我们带到了美光科技。</blockquote>Micron&#39;s Growth Trajectory<blockquote>美光的成长轨迹</blockquote>Micron is no slouch either when it comes to growth. Between 2005 and 2020, their revenue had a 10% CAGR (compared to 12% for Nvidia). According to Micron, memory has been the fastest growing sub-field in semiconductors over the last two decades.<blockquote>在增长方面，美光科技也毫不逊色。2005年至2020年间，他们的收入复合年增长率为10%（而英伟达为12%）。据美光科技称，过去二十年来，内存一直是半导体中增长最快的子领域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2909ab175fa284b1247812cc9312e2d\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：收益演示</blockquote>Micron breaks down its segments a bit differently than Nvidia, but its segments are all growing quickly as well. They highlight many of the same growth drivers as Nvidia. In particular, they saw 80% growth in industrial/IoT this year, and they expect 40-50% CAGR in the auto market over the next three years.<blockquote>美光科技对其细分市场的划分与英伟达略有不同，但其细分市场也都在快速增长。他们强调了许多与英伟达相同的增长动力。特别是，他们看到今年工业/物联网增长了80%，他们预计未来三年汽车市场的CAGR将达到40-50%。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f64ca0b97d8dd38525cee5bd53299cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"75\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Micron&#39;s fiscal year ends at a different time than Nvidia, so it&#39;s difficult to make head-to-head comparisons based on the estimates in the image above. But one easy point to make is that Micron&#39;s projected EPS growth in the one year ending August 2022 is 10% higher than Nvidia&#39;s projected EPS growth in the two years from January 2022 to January 2024.<blockquote>美光的财年结束时间与英伟达不同，因此很难根据上图中的估计进行正面比较。但有一点很容易指出，美光科技在截至2022年8月的一年中的预计每股收益增长比英伟达在2022年1月至2024年1月两年中的预计每股收益增长高出10%。</blockquote>These are just projections and they&#39;re often wrong. But Micron&#39;s projected EPS growth is based on just 16% revenue growth, which seems like an attainable target that&#39;s only slightly higher than its historic growth rate.<blockquote>这些只是预测，而且往往是错误的。但美光科技预计的每股收益增长仅基于16%的收入增长，这似乎是一个可实现的目标，仅略高于其历史增长率。</blockquote>Ideally, an investment would be fairly valued based on earnings estimates so that a company doesn&#39;t have to wildly exceed expectations to deliver strong returns. I believe that&#39;s the case with Micron, since even using its historic 10% CAGR without factoring in this year&#39;s projected 46% growth, it has a PEG of just 1.4.<blockquote>理想情况下，投资将根据盈利预测进行公平估值，这样公司就不必大幅超出预期才能带来强劲回报。我相信美光科技就是这种情况，因为即使使用其历史性的10%复合年增长率，而不考虑今年预计的46%增长，它的PEG也仅为1.4。</blockquote>Another reason why I believe Micron&#39;s growth estimates are attainable is because of where they are in the supply/demand cycle. While Nvidia&#39;s revenue is breaking records every quarter, Micron still has less revenue now than it did in 2018. This is an industry-wide issue; revenue for Micron competitor SK Hynix also peaked in 2018.<blockquote>我相信美光科技的增长预期是可以实现的另一个原因是因为它们处于供需周期中。虽然英伟达的收入每个季度都在打破记录，但美光现在的收入仍然低于2018年。这是一个全行业的问题；美光竞争对手SK海力士的收入也在2018年达到顶峰。</blockquote>It&#39;s not a foregone conclusion that revenue in the memory industry will reach another all-time high. But considering the strong growth trends that underpin the industry and the progress those trends have made since 2018, I think it&#39;s reasonable to assume that this will happen at some point.<blockquote>存储器行业营收再创历史新高并非定局。但考虑到支撑该行业的强劲增长趋势以及这些趋势自2018年以来取得的进展，我认为有理由假设这种情况将在某个时候发生。</blockquote>There are a variety of other reasons why Micron&#39;s future growth could be steadier and more sustainable than it was in the past:<blockquote>美光科技未来的增长可能比过去更稳定、更可持续还有多种其他原因：</blockquote><ul><li>75% of their revenue now comes from long term agreements based on close collaboration with customers. This is up from 10% five years ago.</li><li>The memory industry has consolidated (anyone remember Sandisk, Inotera, or Elpida?), which should lead to more favorable pricing and less risk of oversupply.</li><li>The adoption of capital intensive EUV manufacturing technology will make it more difficult for new entrants, especially in China where the tech is unavailable.</li><li>Micron could get support from the federal government as part of the CHIPS act, which appears to be more focused on manufacturing than design (and thus not as likely to benefit Nvidia).</li><li>Micron recently started paying a dividend, which indicates management&#39;s confidence that their cash flows are sustainable.</li></ul>Risks<blockquote><ul><li>他们75%的收入现在来自基于与客户密切合作的长期协议。这比五年前的10%有所上升。</li><li>内存行业已经整合（有人记得Sandisk、Inotera或Elpida吗？），这应该会带来更优惠的定价和更小的供应过剩风险。</li><li>采用资本密集型EUV制造技术将使新进入者更加困难，尤其是在该技术不可用的中国。</li><li>作为CHIPS法案的一部分，美光可以获得联邦政府的支持，该法案似乎更侧重于制造而不是设计（因此不太可能使英伟达受益）。</li><li>美光科技最近开始支付股息，这表明管理层对其现金流的可持续性充满信心。</li></ul>风险</blockquote>To be clear, my thesis is that Micron will outperform Nvidia over the next few years, not that Nvidia&#39;s stock will decline. Great companies like Nvidia can trade at elevated multiples for a long time and I have no desire to short Nvidia. Even so, there are a couple reasons why this narrow thesis could fail and Micron could end up underperforming Nvidia.<blockquote>需要明确的是，我的论点是美光科技在未来几年的表现将优于英伟达，而不是英伟达的股价会下跌。像英伟达这样的伟大公司可以长期以较高的市盈率进行交易，我不想做空英伟达。即便如此，这个狭隘的论点可能会失败，美光科技最终的表现可能会逊于英伟达，原因有几个。</blockquote>The first is that Micron&#39;s moat sources are not as strong as Nvidia&#39;s. Micron&#39;s market position has improved as a result of the factors mentioned in the previous section. Even so, it&#39;s still a relatively small player compared to Samsung despite its market leadership in some verticals like low power DRAM. This could stop Micron from driving innovations through R&amp;D or exercising pricing power. On the other hand, Nvidia invented the GPU, owns substantial intellectual property related to it, and is the largest GPU player with the largest R&amp;D budget.<blockquote>首先是美光的护城河来源不如英伟达强大。由于上一节提到的因素，美光的市场地位有所提高。即便如此，尽管它在低功耗DRAM等一些垂直领域处于市场领先地位，但与三星相比，它仍然是一个相对较小的参与者。这可能会阻止美光通过研发推动创新或行使定价权。另一方面，英伟达发明了GPU，拥有与之相关的大量知识产权，是研发预算最大的GPU玩家。</blockquote>Micron has also benefitted from multiple expansion; a couple years ago it had a forward P/E of just 3. In that respect, Nvidia and Micron have both experienced a similar level of multiple expansion (about 5x). The difference is that Micron&#39;s current P/E of 14 is a reasonable multiple for a fast growing cyclical company with high teens revenue growth. Nvidia&#39;s current P/E of 93 is a reasonable multiple for a high quality company positioned to grow at 30%+ for years to come, which I doubt Nvidia (or any large cap semiconductor company) can do. Even so, both companies could be vulnerable to multiple contraction in the future. While I believe it&#39;s unlikely, Micron could benefit less from changes to its multiple than Nvidia.<blockquote>美光科技也受益于多重扩张；几年前，它的远期市盈率仅为3。在这方面，英伟达和美光都经历了类似水平的倍数扩张（约5倍）。不同之处在于，美光科技目前14的市盈率对于一家收入增长率高达十几岁的快速增长的周期性公司来说是一个合理的倍数。Nvidia目前93的市盈率对于一家未来几年增长30%以上的优质公司来说是一个合理的倍数，我怀疑Nvidia（或任何大型半导体公司）能否做到这一点。即便如此，两家公司未来都可能容易受到多重收缩的影响。虽然我认为这不太可能，但美光从市盈率变化中受益的可能不如英伟达。</blockquote>Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote>Both Micron and Nvidia are great companies, but Nvidia is probably a better company in terms of market position and margins. I would be an avid buyer of Nvidia at 40-50 P/E, a level that I admit it may not fall to for a while. In the meantime, I&#39;m happy with a large position in Micron, which is an increasingly great company at a fair price.<blockquote>美光和英伟达都是伟大的公司，但就市场地位和利润率而言，英伟达可能是更好的公司。我会以40-50的市盈率热衷于购买Nvidia，我承认这个水平在一段时间内可能不会跌至这个水平。与此同时，我对美光科技的大量头寸感到满意，这是一家价格合理、日益伟大的公司。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Bull Run May Continue, But Micron Is A Better Pick<blockquote>英伟达的牛市可能会持续，但美光是更好的选择</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Bull Run May Continue, But Micron Is A Better Pick<blockquote>英伟达的牛市可能会持续，但美光是更好的选择</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-01-05 14:39\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Nvidia and Micron are two semiconductor giants, but Nvidia has been a better performer and a more popular stock lately.</li><li>Although Nvidia&#39;s semiconductors are irreplaceable, their past growth rate appears unsustainable.</li><li>On the other hand, Micron&#39;s bull run could just be getting started, and its growth is becoming less cyclical.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6691b70fdc966ffa4fdf41f48e2288a1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Jae Young Ju/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>英伟达和美光是两家半导体巨头，但英伟达最近表现更好，也是更受欢迎的股票。</li><li>尽管英伟达的半导体无可替代，但其过去的增长速度似乎难以为继。</li><li>另一方面，美光科技的牛市可能才刚刚开始，其增长的周期性正在减弱。</li></ul>Jae Young Ju/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote>Thesis<blockquote>论文</blockquote>Both NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Micron (NASDAQ:MU) are semiconductor giants benefiting from strong growth trends in data centers, self-driving cars, and other high tech fields. From a purely business perspective, Nvidia&#39;s capital-light operations and market leadership make it preferable. However, at a 6x cheaper valuation, Micron is the better buy now.<blockquote>英伟达（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）和美光（纳斯达克股票代码：MU）都是半导体巨头，受益于数据中心、自动驾驶汽车和其他高科技领域的强劲增长趋势。从纯粹的商业角度来看，英伟达的轻资本运营和市场领导地位使其更受青睐。然而，美光科技的估值便宜了6倍，现在更值得买入。</blockquote>Introduction<blockquote>介绍</blockquote>Nvidia&#39;s bull run over the past couple years made it by far the most valuable semiconductor company. In fact, it&#39;s now the 8th most valuable company in the world. Among semiconductor companies, only TSMC (NYSE:TSM) joins it in the top 25. This status has given Nvidia a reputation as the premier &#34;picks and shovels&#34; play of futuristic tech.<blockquote>英伟达过去几年的牛市使其成为迄今为止最有价值的半导体公司。事实上，它现在是世界上第八大最有价值的公司。在半导体公司中，只有台积电（NYSE：TSM）加入了前25名。这一地位使英伟达赢得了未来科技领域首屈一指的“镐和铲子”游戏的声誉。</blockquote>It&#39;s certainly true that Nvidia isapicks and shovels play. Nvidia&#39;s GPUs - which specialize in highly parallelized computing like graphics - are increasingly important in areas like data centers, cryptocurrency mining, and self-driving cars. Companies like Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are ramping up spending in these fields, which in Meta&#39;s case reportedly includes an all-in bet on Nvidia&#39;s GPUs. Widespread demand created a shortage of Nvidia products and drove the bull run that 6xed the stock from its March 2020 lows.<blockquote>英伟达确实是一个镐和铲子玩。英伟达的GPU专门从事图形等高度并行计算，在数据中心、加密货币挖掘和自动驾驶汽车等领域变得越来越重要。Meta（纳斯达克股票代码：FB）等公司正在增加这些领域的支出，据报道，就Meta而言，这包括对Nvidia GPU的全力押注。广泛的需求造成了Nvidia产品的短缺，并推动了牛市，该股较2020年3月的低点上涨了6倍。</blockquote>However, over half of that performance was driven by multiple expansion. Nvidia bottomed at 35 P/E in 2020, and now stands at nearly 100. This lofty multiple makes Nvidia look much further ahead of its semiconductor peers than it actually is.<blockquote>然而，超过一半的业绩是由多重扩张推动的。英伟达的市盈率在2020年跌至35倍，目前接近100倍。如此高的市盈率使英伟达比实际情况遥遥领先于半导体同行。</blockquote>To illustrate, Micron - which at a $104B market cap and P/E of 14 has flown comparatively under the radar - actually has more revenue than Nvidia. In the last 12 months, they brought in $27.7B compared to $24.3B from Nvidia. If Nvidia&#39;s P/E was applied to Micron, it would have a $713B market cap... just 5.6% smaller than Nvidia&#39;s.<blockquote>举例来说，美光科技的市值为1040亿美元，市盈率为14，相对来说并不为人所知，但它的收入实际上比英伟达还要多。在过去12个月中，他们的收入为277亿美元，而Nvidia的收入为243亿美元。如果将Nvidia的市盈率应用于美光科技，其市值将达到713B美元……仅比英伟达小5.6%。</blockquote>From a business perspective, there&#39;s not much similarity between these two companies besides the fact that they both design semiconductors.<blockquote>从商业角度来看，除了都设计半导体之外，这两家公司之间没有太多相似之处。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/200b841ba17e382317f5508778ebf9ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote>Nvidia focuses on GPUs, a product that it invented. It has 83% market share, excluding integrated GPUs where Intel leads. This market share is partially protected by intellectual property.<blockquote>英伟达专注于GPU，这是它发明的产品。它拥有83%的市场份额，不包括英特尔领先的集成GPU。这一市场份额部分受到知识产权的保护。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0ecfd56031c9bfeb18ff874dc722363\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: TECHDesign<blockquote>资料来源：TECHDesign</blockquote>On the other hand, Micron is a distant third in DRAM market share and only fifth in the crowded NAND space. Unlike Nvidia, Micron manufactures chips in addition to designing them and doesn&#39;t seem to have a noteworthy advantage when it comes to intellectual property.<blockquote>另一方面，美光在DRAM市场份额上远远落后于第三名，在拥挤的NAND领域仅排名第五。与英伟达不同，美光除了设计芯片之外还制造芯片，在知识产权方面似乎没有明显的优势。</blockquote>DRAM and NAND are two types of memory chips. While GPUs specialize in performing a lot of operations very quickly, memory chips focus on storing a lot of information.<blockquote>DRAM和NAND是两种类型的存储芯片。GPU擅长非常快速地执行大量操作，而内存芯片则专注于存储大量信息。</blockquote>Memory chips are used alongside GPUs, and don&#39;t compete directly with them. Micron is partnered with Nvidia on a variety of offerings, helping both companies benefit from the same growth trends. In particular, both companies have highlighted AI, 5G, IoT, gaming, industrial, blockchain, the metaverse, and auto as areas that will drive future growth.<blockquote>内存芯片与GPU一起使用，并不与GPU直接竞争。美光科技与英伟达在多种产品上合作，帮助两家公司从相同的增长趋势中受益。特别是，两家公司都强调人工智能、5G、物联网、游戏、工业、区块链、元宇宙和汽车是推动未来增长的领域。</blockquote>In the rest of this article, I&#39;ll explain why Nvidia&#39;s growth rate over the past year may not be sustainable, while Micron&#39;s future growth may be even better than it was in the past.<blockquote>在本文的其余部分，我将解释为什么英伟达过去一年的增长率可能不可持续，而美光未来的增长可能会比过去更好。</blockquote>Nvidia&#39;s Growth Trajectory<blockquote>英伟达的增长轨迹</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74dbfacbd6ae03fb40883b5dfea2bbf8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"76\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote>According to Seeking Alpha, analysts project a 16-18% revenue and earnings CAGR for Nvidia over the next two years. For comparison, Nvidia is wrapping up a year where it will have grown earnings by about 73%.<blockquote>根据Seeking Alpha的数据，分析师预计英伟达未来两年收入和盈利复合年增长率为16-18%。相比之下，英伟达今年的盈利将增长约73%。</blockquote>What&#39;s causing the deceleration? One place to look is prior to 2021. Between 2005 and 2020, Nvidia&#39;s revenue grew at a CAGR of 12%. Adding 2021&#39;s historic growth brings it to 14% CAGR. So analysts are projecting slightly elevated growth relative to historic levels, which I think is reasonable. This level of growth is very impressive, and it was enough for Nvidia to generate strong returns even prior to this year.<blockquote>是什么导致了减速？一个值得关注的地方是2021年之前。2005年至2020年间，英伟达的收入复合年增长率为12%。加上2021年的历史性增长，CAGR达到14%。因此，分析师预计增长相对于历史水平略有上升，我认为这是合理的。这种增长水平非常令人印象深刻，甚至在今年之前就足以让英伟达产生强劲的回报。</blockquote>This growth is also above the industry average. Since 2008, the only large cap semiconductor company with a revenue CAGR above 15% is Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), which only broke this threshold due to acquisitions. Keep in mind that this is during the biggest tech bull run ever.<blockquote>这一增长也高于行业平均水平。自2008年以来，唯一一家营收复合年增长率超过15%的大型半导体公司是博通（纳斯达克：AVGO），该公司只是因为收购才突破了这一门槛。请记住，这是有史以来最大的科技牛市。</blockquote>Famous investor Peter Lynch was skeptical of any company growing faster than 20% because of the difficulty of sustaining that growth, and the lack of exceptions to this rule in the semiconductor industry seems to prove him right. (There are plenty of exceptions in software though.)<blockquote>著名投资者彼得·林奇(Peter Lynch)对任何公司的增长速度超过20%持怀疑态度，因为很难维持这种增长，而半导体行业中这一规则缺乏例外似乎证明他是对的。（不过，软件中也有很多例外。）</blockquote>At nearly 100 P/E and growing off of its largest revenue base ever, 2021 will be a difficult act for Nvidia to follow. Nvidia will have to grow significantly faster than 18% per year to justify its valuation relative to peers, since 18% growth would still put its PEG ratio above 5. If Nvidia delivers on its projected growth and trades flat for the next two years, it will have aforwardP/E of 49.<blockquote>Nvidia的市盈率接近100，并且在其有史以来最大的收入基础上不断增长，2021年对于Nvidia来说将是一个艰难的时期。英伟达的年增长率必须明显高于18%，才能证明其相对于同行的估值合理，因为18%的增长率仍将使其PEG比率高于5。如果英伟达实现其预期增长并且未来两年的交易持平，它将拥有向前市盈率为49。</blockquote>It&#39;s also worth noting that semiconductor revenue is cyclical, so this isn&#39;t the first time that Nvidia has experienced strong growth. In both 2008 and 2018, Nvidia had growth of 34% of higher, but those years were followed by growth of -16% and 21% in the next year.<blockquote>还值得注意的是，半导体收入具有周期性，因此这并不是英伟达第一次经历强劲增长。2008年和2018年，英伟达的增长率均为34%或更高，但这几年的增长率分别为-16%和21%。</blockquote>Just to highlight one area where growth doesn&#39;t look sustainable, Nvidia benefited from the increasing popularity of cryptocurrency in 2021. Nvidia has stated that it doesn&#39;t have visibility into exactly how much demand from crypto impacts revenue, but its products are used to mine cryptocurrency like Bitcoin (BTC-USD).<blockquote>只是为了强调一个增长看起来不可持续的领域，英伟达受益于2021年加密货币的日益普及。英伟达表示，它无法准确了解加密货币需求对收入的影响程度，但其产品用于挖掘比特币（BTC-USD）等加密货币。</blockquote>I&#39;m certainly not so bold as to call a top in Bitcoin, but historically it has been the case that the year after a halving has marked the start of a Bitcoin bear market. Additionally, altcoins that use proof of stake (including Ethereum, which will switch to proof of stake in 2022) have been gaining market share on Bitcoin. Proof of stake doesn&#39;t need Nvidia&#39;s GPUs because it doesn&#39;t do as much computation.<blockquote>我当然没有那么大胆地认为看涨期权是比特币的顶部，但从历史上看，减半后的一年标志着比特币熊市的开始。此外，使用权益证明的山寨币（包括以太币，将于2022年改用权益证明）一直在比特币上获得市场份额。权益证明不需要英伟达的GPU，因为它不做那么多计算。</blockquote>Micron benefits from cryptocurrency as well, since miners need a lot of power and a lot of memory. But the market&#39;s perception seems to be that Nvidia benefits more based on the well publicized GPU shortages related to mining, which could negatively impact Nvidia&#39;s stock if Bitcoin crashes. Additionally, Micron would not be as impacted by a switch to proof of stake.<blockquote>美光也受益于加密货币，因为矿工需要大量的电力和大量的内存。但市场的看法似乎是，基于广为人知的与采矿相关的GPU短缺，英伟达受益更多，如果比特币崩盘，这可能会对英伟达的股票产生负面影响。此外，美光科技不会受到转向股权证明的影响。</blockquote>Focusing only on cryptocurrency is a disservice to Nvidia&#39;s strong growth across the board. Revenue is growing rapidly in every segment:<blockquote>只关注加密货币不利于英伟达的全面强劲增长。每个细分市场的收入都在快速增长：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcb18bde54e264f60139107ea74aba67\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: The Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote>These segments all have enormous potential, and that could let Nvidia continue to grow quickly for years. I&#39;m not ruling out the possibility that Nvidia beats estimates and has positive returns in 2022 or the following years. Over the long term, I have no doubt that they will continue to grow revenue and do very well. I just see better places to deploy capital now, which brings us to Micron.<blockquote>这些细分市场都具有巨大的潜力，这可能会让英伟达继续快速增长多年。我不排除Nvidia超出预期并在2022年或随后几年获得正回报的可能性。从长远来看，我毫不怀疑他们的收入将继续增长并且表现出色。我只是看到了现在部署资本的更好地方，这就把我们带到了美光科技。</blockquote>Micron&#39;s Growth Trajectory<blockquote>美光的成长轨迹</blockquote>Micron is no slouch either when it comes to growth. Between 2005 and 2020, their revenue had a 10% CAGR (compared to 12% for Nvidia). According to Micron, memory has been the fastest growing sub-field in semiconductors over the last two decades.<blockquote>在增长方面，美光科技也毫不逊色。2005年至2020年间，他们的收入复合年增长率为10%（而英伟达为12%）。据美光科技称，过去二十年来，内存一直是半导体中增长最快的子领域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2909ab175fa284b1247812cc9312e2d\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：收益演示</blockquote>Micron breaks down its segments a bit differently than Nvidia, but its segments are all growing quickly as well. They highlight many of the same growth drivers as Nvidia. In particular, they saw 80% growth in industrial/IoT this year, and they expect 40-50% CAGR in the auto market over the next three years.<blockquote>美光科技对其细分市场的划分与英伟达略有不同，但其细分市场也都在快速增长。他们强调了许多与英伟达相同的增长动力。特别是，他们看到今年工业/物联网增长了80%，他们预计未来三年汽车市场的CAGR将达到40-50%。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f64ca0b97d8dd38525cee5bd53299cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"75\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Micron&#39;s fiscal year ends at a different time than Nvidia, so it&#39;s difficult to make head-to-head comparisons based on the estimates in the image above. But one easy point to make is that Micron&#39;s projected EPS growth in the one year ending August 2022 is 10% higher than Nvidia&#39;s projected EPS growth in the two years from January 2022 to January 2024.<blockquote>美光的财年结束时间与英伟达不同，因此很难根据上图中的估计进行正面比较。但有一点很容易指出，美光科技在截至2022年8月的一年中的预计每股收益增长比英伟达在2022年1月至2024年1月两年中的预计每股收益增长高出10%。</blockquote>These are just projections and they&#39;re often wrong. But Micron&#39;s projected EPS growth is based on just 16% revenue growth, which seems like an attainable target that&#39;s only slightly higher than its historic growth rate.<blockquote>这些只是预测，而且往往是错误的。但美光科技预计的每股收益增长仅基于16%的收入增长，这似乎是一个可实现的目标，仅略高于其历史增长率。</blockquote>Ideally, an investment would be fairly valued based on earnings estimates so that a company doesn&#39;t have to wildly exceed expectations to deliver strong returns. I believe that&#39;s the case with Micron, since even using its historic 10% CAGR without factoring in this year&#39;s projected 46% growth, it has a PEG of just 1.4.<blockquote>理想情况下，投资将根据盈利预测进行公平估值，这样公司就不必大幅超出预期才能带来强劲回报。我相信美光科技就是这种情况，因为即使使用其历史性的10%复合年增长率，而不考虑今年预计的46%增长，它的PEG也仅为1.4。</blockquote>Another reason why I believe Micron&#39;s growth estimates are attainable is because of where they are in the supply/demand cycle. While Nvidia&#39;s revenue is breaking records every quarter, Micron still has less revenue now than it did in 2018. This is an industry-wide issue; revenue for Micron competitor SK Hynix also peaked in 2018.<blockquote>我相信美光科技的增长预期是可以实现的另一个原因是因为它们处于供需周期中。虽然英伟达的收入每个季度都在打破记录，但美光现在的收入仍然低于2018年。这是一个全行业的问题；美光竞争对手SK海力士的收入也在2018年达到顶峰。</blockquote>It&#39;s not a foregone conclusion that revenue in the memory industry will reach another all-time high. But considering the strong growth trends that underpin the industry and the progress those trends have made since 2018, I think it&#39;s reasonable to assume that this will happen at some point.<blockquote>存储器行业营收再创历史新高并非定局。但考虑到支撑该行业的强劲增长趋势以及这些趋势自2018年以来取得的进展，我认为有理由假设这种情况将在某个时候发生。</blockquote>There are a variety of other reasons why Micron&#39;s future growth could be steadier and more sustainable than it was in the past:<blockquote>美光科技未来的增长可能比过去更稳定、更可持续还有多种其他原因：</blockquote><ul><li>75% of their revenue now comes from long term agreements based on close collaboration with customers. This is up from 10% five years ago.</li><li>The memory industry has consolidated (anyone remember Sandisk, Inotera, or Elpida?), which should lead to more favorable pricing and less risk of oversupply.</li><li>The adoption of capital intensive EUV manufacturing technology will make it more difficult for new entrants, especially in China where the tech is unavailable.</li><li>Micron could get support from the federal government as part of the CHIPS act, which appears to be more focused on manufacturing than design (and thus not as likely to benefit Nvidia).</li><li>Micron recently started paying a dividend, which indicates management&#39;s confidence that their cash flows are sustainable.</li></ul>Risks<blockquote><ul><li>他们75%的收入现在来自基于与客户密切合作的长期协议。这比五年前的10%有所上升。</li><li>内存行业已经整合（有人记得Sandisk、Inotera或Elpida吗？），这应该会带来更优惠的定价和更小的供应过剩风险。</li><li>采用资本密集型EUV制造技术将使新进入者更加困难，尤其是在该技术不可用的中国。</li><li>作为CHIPS法案的一部分，美光可以获得联邦政府的支持，该法案似乎更侧重于制造而不是设计（因此不太可能使英伟达受益）。</li><li>美光科技最近开始支付股息，这表明管理层对其现金流的可持续性充满信心。</li></ul>风险</blockquote>To be clear, my thesis is that Micron will outperform Nvidia over the next few years, not that Nvidia&#39;s stock will decline. Great companies like Nvidia can trade at elevated multiples for a long time and I have no desire to short Nvidia. Even so, there are a couple reasons why this narrow thesis could fail and Micron could end up underperforming Nvidia.<blockquote>需要明确的是，我的论点是美光科技在未来几年的表现将优于英伟达，而不是英伟达的股价会下跌。像英伟达这样的伟大公司可以长期以较高的市盈率进行交易，我不想做空英伟达。即便如此，这个狭隘的论点可能会失败，美光科技最终的表现可能会逊于英伟达，原因有几个。</blockquote>The first is that Micron&#39;s moat sources are not as strong as Nvidia&#39;s. Micron&#39;s market position has improved as a result of the factors mentioned in the previous section. Even so, it&#39;s still a relatively small player compared to Samsung despite its market leadership in some verticals like low power DRAM. This could stop Micron from driving innovations through R&amp;D or exercising pricing power. On the other hand, Nvidia invented the GPU, owns substantial intellectual property related to it, and is the largest GPU player with the largest R&amp;D budget.<blockquote>首先是美光的护城河来源不如英伟达强大。由于上一节提到的因素，美光的市场地位有所提高。即便如此，尽管它在低功耗DRAM等一些垂直领域处于市场领先地位，但与三星相比，它仍然是一个相对较小的参与者。这可能会阻止美光通过研发推动创新或行使定价权。另一方面，英伟达发明了GPU，拥有与之相关的大量知识产权，是研发预算最大的GPU玩家。</blockquote>Micron has also benefitted from multiple expansion; a couple years ago it had a forward P/E of just 3. In that respect, Nvidia and Micron have both experienced a similar level of multiple expansion (about 5x). The difference is that Micron&#39;s current P/E of 14 is a reasonable multiple for a fast growing cyclical company with high teens revenue growth. Nvidia&#39;s current P/E of 93 is a reasonable multiple for a high quality company positioned to grow at 30%+ for years to come, which I doubt Nvidia (or any large cap semiconductor company) can do. Even so, both companies could be vulnerable to multiple contraction in the future. While I believe it&#39;s unlikely, Micron could benefit less from changes to its multiple than Nvidia.<blockquote>美光科技也受益于多重扩张；几年前，它的远期市盈率仅为3。在这方面，英伟达和美光都经历了类似水平的倍数扩张（约5倍）。不同之处在于，美光科技目前14的市盈率对于一家收入增长率高达十几岁的快速增长的周期性公司来说是一个合理的倍数。Nvidia目前93的市盈率对于一家未来几年增长30%以上的优质公司来说是一个合理的倍数，我怀疑Nvidia（或任何大型半导体公司）能否做到这一点。即便如此，两家公司未来都可能容易受到多重收缩的影响。虽然我认为这不太可能，但美光从市盈率变化中受益的可能不如英伟达。</blockquote>Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote>Both Micron and Nvidia are great companies, but Nvidia is probably a better company in terms of market position and margins. I would be an avid buyer of Nvidia at 40-50 P/E, a level that I admit it may not fall to for a while. In the meantime, I&#39;m happy with a large position in Micron, which is an increasingly great company at a fair price.<blockquote>美光和英伟达都是伟大的公司，但就市场地位和利润率而言，英伟达可能是更好的公司。我会以40-50的市盈率热衷于购买Nvidia，我承认这个水平在一段时间内可能不会跌至这个水平。与此同时，我对美光科技的大量头寸感到满意，这是一家价格合理、日益伟大的公司。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477940-nvidia-nvda-mu-bull-run-may-continue-micron-better-pick\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477940-nvidia-nvda-mu-bull-run-may-continue-micron-better-pick","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155972670","content_text":"SummaryNvidia and Micron are two semiconductor giants, but Nvidia has been a better performer and a more popular stock lately.Although Nvidia's semiconductors are irreplaceable, their past growth rate appears unsustainable.On the other hand, Micron's bull run could just be getting started, and its growth is becoming less cyclical.Jae Young Ju/iStock via Getty ImagesThesisBoth NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Micron (NASDAQ:MU) are semiconductor giants benefiting from strong growth trends in data centers, self-driving cars, and other high tech fields. From a purely business perspective, Nvidia's capital-light operations and market leadership make it preferable. However, at a 6x cheaper valuation, Micron is the better buy now.IntroductionNvidia's bull run over the past couple years made it by far the most valuable semiconductor company. In fact, it's now the 8th most valuable company in the world. Among semiconductor companies, only TSMC (NYSE:TSM) joins it in the top 25. This status has given Nvidia a reputation as the premier \"picks and shovels\" play of futuristic tech.It's certainly true that Nvidia isapicks and shovels play. Nvidia's GPUs - which specialize in highly parallelized computing like graphics - are increasingly important in areas like data centers, cryptocurrency mining, and self-driving cars. Companies like Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are ramping up spending in these fields, which in Meta's case reportedly includes an all-in bet on Nvidia's GPUs. Widespread demand created a shortage of Nvidia products and drove the bull run that 6xed the stock from its March 2020 lows.However, over half of that performance was driven by multiple expansion. Nvidia bottomed at 35 P/E in 2020, and now stands at nearly 100. This lofty multiple makes Nvidia look much further ahead of its semiconductor peers than it actually is.To illustrate, Micron - which at a $104B market cap and P/E of 14 has flown comparatively under the radar - actually has more revenue than Nvidia. In the last 12 months, they brought in $27.7B compared to $24.3B from Nvidia. If Nvidia's P/E was applied to Micron, it would have a $713B market cap... just 5.6% smaller than Nvidia's.From a business perspective, there's not much similarity between these two companies besides the fact that they both design semiconductors.Source: StatistaNvidia focuses on GPUs, a product that it invented. It has 83% market share, excluding integrated GPUs where Intel leads. This market share is partially protected by intellectual property.Source: TECHDesignOn the other hand, Micron is a distant third in DRAM market share and only fifth in the crowded NAND space. Unlike Nvidia, Micron manufactures chips in addition to designing them and doesn't seem to have a noteworthy advantage when it comes to intellectual property.DRAM and NAND are two types of memory chips. While GPUs specialize in performing a lot of operations very quickly, memory chips focus on storing a lot of information.Memory chips are used alongside GPUs, and don't compete directly with them. Micron is partnered with Nvidia on a variety of offerings, helping both companies benefit from the same growth trends. In particular, both companies have highlighted AI, 5G, IoT, gaming, industrial, blockchain, the metaverse, and auto as areas that will drive future growth.In the rest of this article, I'll explain why Nvidia's growth rate over the past year may not be sustainable, while Micron's future growth may be even better than it was in the past.Nvidia's Growth TrajectorySource: Seeking AlphaAccording to Seeking Alpha, analysts project a 16-18% revenue and earnings CAGR for Nvidia over the next two years. For comparison, Nvidia is wrapping up a year where it will have grown earnings by about 73%.What's causing the deceleration? One place to look is prior to 2021. Between 2005 and 2020, Nvidia's revenue grew at a CAGR of 12%. Adding 2021's historic growth brings it to 14% CAGR. So analysts are projecting slightly elevated growth relative to historic levels, which I think is reasonable. This level of growth is very impressive, and it was enough for Nvidia to generate strong returns even prior to this year.This growth is also above the industry average. Since 2008, the only large cap semiconductor company with a revenue CAGR above 15% is Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), which only broke this threshold due to acquisitions. Keep in mind that this is during the biggest tech bull run ever.Famous investor Peter Lynch was skeptical of any company growing faster than 20% because of the difficulty of sustaining that growth, and the lack of exceptions to this rule in the semiconductor industry seems to prove him right. (There are plenty of exceptions in software though.)At nearly 100 P/E and growing off of its largest revenue base ever, 2021 will be a difficult act for Nvidia to follow. Nvidia will have to grow significantly faster than 18% per year to justify its valuation relative to peers, since 18% growth would still put its PEG ratio above 5. If Nvidia delivers on its projected growth and trades flat for the next two years, it will have aforwardP/E of 49.It's also worth noting that semiconductor revenue is cyclical, so this isn't the first time that Nvidia has experienced strong growth. In both 2008 and 2018, Nvidia had growth of 34% of higher, but those years were followed by growth of -16% and 21% in the next year.Just to highlight one area where growth doesn't look sustainable, Nvidia benefited from the increasing popularity of cryptocurrency in 2021. Nvidia has stated that it doesn't have visibility into exactly how much demand from crypto impacts revenue, but its products are used to mine cryptocurrency like Bitcoin (BTC-USD).I'm certainly not so bold as to call a top in Bitcoin, but historically it has been the case that the year after a halving has marked the start of a Bitcoin bear market. Additionally, altcoins that use proof of stake (including Ethereum, which will switch to proof of stake in 2022) have been gaining market share on Bitcoin. Proof of stake doesn't need Nvidia's GPUs because it doesn't do as much computation.Micron benefits from cryptocurrency as well, since miners need a lot of power and a lot of memory. But the market's perception seems to be that Nvidia benefits more based on the well publicized GPU shortages related to mining, which could negatively impact Nvidia's stock if Bitcoin crashes. Additionally, Micron would not be as impacted by a switch to proof of stake.Focusing only on cryptocurrency is a disservice to Nvidia's strong growth across the board. Revenue is growing rapidly in every segment:Source: The AuthorThese segments all have enormous potential, and that could let Nvidia continue to grow quickly for years. I'm not ruling out the possibility that Nvidia beats estimates and has positive returns in 2022 or the following years. Over the long term, I have no doubt that they will continue to grow revenue and do very well. I just see better places to deploy capital now, which brings us to Micron.Micron's Growth TrajectoryMicron is no slouch either when it comes to growth. Between 2005 and 2020, their revenue had a 10% CAGR (compared to 12% for Nvidia). According to Micron, memory has been the fastest growing sub-field in semiconductors over the last two decades.Source: Earnings PresentationMicron breaks down its segments a bit differently than Nvidia, but its segments are all growing quickly as well. They highlight many of the same growth drivers as Nvidia. In particular, they saw 80% growth in industrial/IoT this year, and they expect 40-50% CAGR in the auto market over the next three years.Source: Seeking AlphaMicron's fiscal year ends at a different time than Nvidia, so it's difficult to make head-to-head comparisons based on the estimates in the image above. But one easy point to make is that Micron's projected EPS growth in the one year ending August 2022 is 10% higher than Nvidia's projected EPS growth in the two years from January 2022 to January 2024.These are just projections and they're often wrong. But Micron's projected EPS growth is based on just 16% revenue growth, which seems like an attainable target that's only slightly higher than its historic growth rate.Ideally, an investment would be fairly valued based on earnings estimates so that a company doesn't have to wildly exceed expectations to deliver strong returns. I believe that's the case with Micron, since even using its historic 10% CAGR without factoring in this year's projected 46% growth, it has a PEG of just 1.4.Another reason why I believe Micron's growth estimates are attainable is because of where they are in the supply/demand cycle. While Nvidia's revenue is breaking records every quarter, Micron still has less revenue now than it did in 2018. This is an industry-wide issue; revenue for Micron competitor SK Hynix also peaked in 2018.It's not a foregone conclusion that revenue in the memory industry will reach another all-time high. But considering the strong growth trends that underpin the industry and the progress those trends have made since 2018, I think it's reasonable to assume that this will happen at some point.There are a variety of other reasons why Micron's future growth could be steadier and more sustainable than it was in the past:75% of their revenue now comes from long term agreements based on close collaboration with customers. This is up from 10% five years ago.The memory industry has consolidated (anyone remember Sandisk, Inotera, or Elpida?), which should lead to more favorable pricing and less risk of oversupply.The adoption of capital intensive EUV manufacturing technology will make it more difficult for new entrants, especially in China where the tech is unavailable.Micron could get support from the federal government as part of the CHIPS act, which appears to be more focused on manufacturing than design (and thus not as likely to benefit Nvidia).Micron recently started paying a dividend, which indicates management's confidence that their cash flows are sustainable.RisksTo be clear, my thesis is that Micron will outperform Nvidia over the next few years, not that Nvidia's stock will decline. Great companies like Nvidia can trade at elevated multiples for a long time and I have no desire to short Nvidia. Even so, there are a couple reasons why this narrow thesis could fail and Micron could end up underperforming Nvidia.The first is that Micron's moat sources are not as strong as Nvidia's. Micron's market position has improved as a result of the factors mentioned in the previous section. Even so, it's still a relatively small player compared to Samsung despite its market leadership in some verticals like low power DRAM. This could stop Micron from driving innovations through R&D or exercising pricing power. On the other hand, Nvidia invented the GPU, owns substantial intellectual property related to it, and is the largest GPU player with the largest R&D budget.Micron has also benefitted from multiple expansion; a couple years ago it had a forward P/E of just 3. In that respect, Nvidia and Micron have both experienced a similar level of multiple expansion (about 5x). The difference is that Micron's current P/E of 14 is a reasonable multiple for a fast growing cyclical company with high teens revenue growth. Nvidia's current P/E of 93 is a reasonable multiple for a high quality company positioned to grow at 30%+ for years to come, which I doubt Nvidia (or any large cap semiconductor company) can do. Even so, both companies could be vulnerable to multiple contraction in the future. While I believe it's unlikely, Micron could benefit less from changes to its multiple than Nvidia.ConclusionBoth Micron and Nvidia are great companies, but Nvidia is probably a better company in terms of market position and margins. I would be an avid buyer of Nvidia at 40-50 P/E, a level that I admit it may not fall to for a while. In the meantime, I'm happy with a large position in Micron, which is an increasingly great company at a fair price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/695156356"}