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2021-12-28
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Microsoft Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>微软股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote>
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I am a little more conservative due to MSFT's high valuation.</li> <li>Microsoft Corporation is an excellent long-term investment, but waiting for a better entry point could pay off, as shares are historically expensive today.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78cf4b56323a37eacd27b73ced593338\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1082\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软在2021年表现出色，但2022年不会重演。</li><li>尽管如此，分析师预测MSFT明年将实现两位数的回报。由于MSFT的高估值，我有点保守。</li><li>微软公司是一项出色的长期投资，但等待更好的切入点可能会有回报，因为今天的股价历来都很昂贵。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is one of the most dominant tech companies in the world, and as part of the GAMMA group, it has performed very well in 2021. That was partially driven by underlying business growth, but multiple expansion also played a role. Microsoft is trading at a relatively high valuation - due to its quality and solid growth opportunities, a premium valuation seems justified, but with interest rate increases looming, MSFT could still experience multiple contraction headwinds over the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>微软公司（MSFT）是全球最具主导地位的科技公司之一，作为GAMMA集团的一部分，它在2021年表现非常出色。这在一定程度上是由基础业务增长推动的，但多重扩张也发挥了作用。微软的估值相对较高——由于其质量和稳健的增长机会，溢价估值似乎是合理的，但随着加息的临近，MSFT在未来几年仍可能面临多重收缩阻力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Microsoft Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>微软估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft Corporation is a leading tech company with a huge moat across its core businesses and with attractive growth opportunities in areas such as cloud computing and the emerging Metaverse. On top of that, Microsoft has excellent fundamentals, which include huge returns on capital, high margins, and a fortress balance sheet - one of only two in the world that are AAA-rated. It is thus not too surprising to see Microsoft trade at an above-average valuation, but MSFT currently also trades at a considerable premium relative to how shares of the company were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>微软公司是一家领先的科技公司，其核心业务拥有巨大的护城河，并在云计算和新兴元宇宙等领域拥有诱人的增长机会。最重要的是，微软拥有出色的基本面，包括巨额资本回报、高利润率和强大的资产负债表——世界上仅有的两家AAA评级公司之一。因此，微软的估值高于平均水平也就不足为奇了，但MSFT目前的交易价格相对于该公司股票过去的估值也有相当大的溢价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212ee5adb6f1e19137d2c30aa0a446d5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At current prices of around $335, Microsoft Corporation is valued at a little more than 36x forward earnings, which equates to an earnings yield of slightly less than 3%. This represents a ~15% premium compared to the 5-year median earnings multiple, and a pretty hefty 33% premium relative to the 10-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>按目前约335美元的价格计算，微软公司的预期市盈率略高于36倍，相当于收益率略低于3%。与5年市盈率中位数相比，这意味着约15%的溢价，与10年市盈率中位数相比，溢价相当高达33%。</blockquote></p><p> To some degree, one can argue that the rise in Microsoft's earnings multiple over the last decade was justified, as the company successfully managed to turn into a cloud- and mobile-centric company - which was not guaranteed a decade ago. Nevertheless, when a company's shares are valued at a hefty premium compared to the longer-term average, investors should consider the downside risk from multiple compression potential.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，人们可以说微软过去十年市盈率的上升是合理的，因为该公司成功转型为一家以云和移动为中心的公司——这在十年前是无法保证的。然而，当一家公司的股票估值较长期平均水平大幅溢价时，投资者应考虑多重压缩潜力带来的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at Microsoft's valuation on an enterprise value to EBITDA basis, which accounts for changes in debt usage over time, MSFT seems pricey as well:</p><p><blockquote>看看微软基于企业价值与EBITDA的估值（考虑了债务使用随时间的变化），MSFT似乎也很昂贵：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58a0bd4255e3439c13c1a2f68d9e782\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 25x forward EBITDA, Microsoft Corporation is trading at a relatively high valuation in absolute terms, and also at a quite large ~100% premium relative to the 10-year median EBITDA multiple of 12.7. Microsoft's net cash position, as a percentage of its market capitalization, has declined over the last couple of years, which resulted in a growing enterprise value (where net cash is subtracted), which explains some of the EV/EBITDA multiple expansion seen in the recent past. Still, Microsoft has clearly seen its valuation expand by a lot over the last couple of years. For those that bought into MSFT early on, that was great, as they saw their shares surge due to multiple expansion tailwinds. For someone thinking about investing new money today, the multiple expansion that we have seen in the last couple of year's isn't great, however, since putting new money into shares at historically high valuations could result in below-average returns due to headwinds from multiple compression, when the valuation normalizes towards the historic range.</p><p><blockquote>以25倍的远期EBITDA计算，微软公司的绝对估值相对较高，相对于12.7的10年EBITDA中位数倍数也有相当大的约100%的溢价。微软的净现金头寸占其市值的百分比在过去几年中有所下降，这导致企业价值不断增长（减去净现金），这解释了EV/EBITDA倍数扩张的部分原因。最近的过去。尽管如此，微软的估值在过去几年中明显扩大了很多。对于那些早期买入MSFT的人来说，这太好了，因为他们看到自己的股价因多重扩张利好而飙升。然而，对于今天考虑投资新资金的人来说，我们在过去几年中看到的倍数扩张并不是很大，因为以历史高估值将新资金投入股票可能会因逆风而导致低于平均水平的回报。当估值正常化至历史区间时，多重压缩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Microsoft Stock Expected To Rise?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>微软股票预计会上涨吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In the long run, Microsoft will, I believe, almost certainly experience share price gains. The company will deliver business growth for many years, which should result in rising profits, and as MSFT is buying back shares regularly, those profits are distributed over a shrinking number of shares, leading to additional earnings per share growth tailwinds. With EPS rising, possibly for decades, MSFT's shares will also rise in the long run - although not at the rate seen in the last couple of years. In the near term, share price gains are less certain - earnings per share will most likely be higher next year compared to the current year, but due to the high valuation MSFT trades at right now, earnings per share gains could be offset by multiple contraction. This multiple contraction is not a certainty, of course, but could occur if interest rates rise faster/earlier than expected, or if the broad market experiences a correction, etc.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，从长远来看，微软几乎肯定会经历股价上涨。该公司将实现多年的业务增长，这应该会导致利润上升，而且由于MSFT定期回购股票，这些利润将分配给不断减少的股票数量，从而带来额外的每股收益增长推动力。随着每股收益的上升（可能持续数十年），从长远来看，MSFT的股价也将上涨——尽管不会以过去几年的速度上涨。短期内，股价涨幅不太确定——明年每股收益很可能会高于今年，但由于MSFT目前的高估值，每股收益涨幅可能会被多重收缩所抵消。当然，这种倍数收缩并不是必然的，但如果利率上升得比预期更快/更早，或者如果大盘经历回调等，就可能发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Is Microsoft Stock's Prediction For 2022?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>微软股票对2022年的预测是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's first take a look at what Wall Street thinks about this question:</p><p><blockquote>我们先来看看华尔街是怎么看待这个问题的：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/872df9c2e4729887768acc7be770d03c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one can see in the above chart, analysts believe that Microsoft will experience attractive share price gains in 2022. The current consensus price target stands at $371, which implies an upside of around 10% from the current level over the next twelve months, as that is the usual time frame for Wall Street price targets. Price gains of 10%, with a dividend yield of 0.7% on top of that, would be a pretty attractive return, although that still pales in comparison to the returns MSFT generated over the last couple of years - shares are up 51% over the last twelve months and rose by a massive 430% over the last five years. It is, I believe, almost certain that returns like that will not be possible going forward - the law of large numbers dictates that adding 10%, 20%, or more per year to a company's market cap becomes increasingly hard as a company grows in size. Quintupling MSFT's market cap from $500 billion to $2.5 trillion over the last five years was quite a feat already, but quintupling it again - which would require adding<i>$10 trillion</i>in market cap - seems extremely unlikely, at least for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>从上图可以看出，分析师认为微软将在2022年经历有吸引力的股价上涨。目前的共识目标价为371美元，这意味着未来12个月较当前水平上涨约10%，因为这是华尔街价格目标的通常时间框架。10%的价格涨幅，加上0.7%的股息收益率，将是一个相当有吸引力的回报，尽管与MSFT过去几年产生的回报相比仍然相形见绌——股价在过去12个月内上涨了51%，过去五年大幅上涨了430%。我相信，几乎可以肯定的是，这样的回报在未来是不可能的——大数定律表明，随着公司规模的增长，公司市值每年增加10%、20%或更多变得越来越困难。在过去五年里，MSFT的市值从5000亿美元增加到2.5万亿美元已经是一项相当大的壮举，但再增加五倍——这需要增加<i>10万亿美元</i>就市值而言——似乎极不可能，至少在可预见的未来是这样。</blockquote></p><p> If analysts are correct, MSFT will thus deliver very solid returns in 2022, but those won't be comparable to what we have seen in previous years. For those that believe that MSFT will continue to compound at the rate seen in the recent past, 2022 could thus be a major disappointment. Analysts tend to be somewhat optimistic with their price targets, thus it is also possible that MSFT will deliver total returns that are weaker compared to what analysts are predicting. Current estimates see MSFT earning $10.50 next fiscal year (which ends in June 2023 and starts in July 2022) - if MSFT were to trade at 33x that number a year from now, which would still not be a low valuation at all, its shares would essentially trade in-line with where they trade today.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，MSFT将在2022年带来非常稳健的回报，但这些回报无法与我们前几年看到的相比。对于那些相信MSFT将继续以最近的速度复合的人来说，2022年可能会令人大失所望。分析师往往对他们的价格目标有些乐观，因此MSFT的总回报也有可能弱于分析师的预测。目前的估计是MSFT下一财年（2023年6月结束，2022年7月开始）的盈利为10.50美元——如果MSFT一年后的交易价格是该数字的33倍，这仍然不是一个低估值，那么其股价基本上与今天的交易情况一致。</blockquote></p><p> I am thus more conservative than the analyst consensus and believe that MSFT could deliver returns of less than 10% in 2022. Depending on overall market conditions, even a share price decline is possible - not due to MSFT being a bad company, but due to it being a great company trading at a valuation that is well above historical levels.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我比分析师的共识更加保守，认为MSFT在2022年的回报率可能低于10%。根据整体市场状况，甚至股价下跌也是可能的——不是因为MSFT是一家糟糕的公司，而是因为它是一家伟大的公司，其估值远高于历史水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is MSFT Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>MSFT股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is one of the best investments in the world, I believe, when we back out valuation for a second. The company has an excellent moat across its cash cows MS Office, and its operating system business, and is one of the leaders in the fast-growing cloud computing business with its Azure division. Microsoft also has strong leadership, sports excellent fundamentals and the company is one of only two companies in the world with a AAA rating. Strong cash flows allow Microsoft to return many billions of dollars every year to the company's owners via buybacks and dividends. Last but not least, Microsoft benefits from strong industry tailwinds, as the world is growing ever more interconnected and digitalized, which provides for solid growth tailwinds across Microsoft's many different business units, including cloud computing, Office, and even in areas such as Gaming.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，当我们暂时放弃估值时，微软是世界上最好的投资之一。该公司在其摇钱树MS Office和操作系统业务上拥有出色的护城河，并且凭借其Azure部门成为快速增长的云计算业务的领导者之一。微软还拥有强大的领导力、良好的基本面，该公司是全球仅有的两家获得AAA评级的公司之一。强劲的现金流使微软每年通过回购和股息向公司所有者返还数十亿美元。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，微软受益于强劲的行业顺风，因为世界变得越来越互联和数字化，这为微软的许多不同业务部门提供了坚实的增长顺风，包括云计算、办公，甚至游戏等领域。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Microsoft's valuation is, however, pretty high, and that should not be neglected. In the long run, earnings growth will likely result in ample share price upside, but that does not mean that shares will necessarily trade higher a month or a year from now. In 2022, we will likely see several Fed rate hikes, and those could put pressure on expensive growth stocks such as Microsoft - with a large portion of all future profits lying in the future, they will feel a more pronounced impact from a rising discount rate compared to value stocks where a higher portion of all future profits will be generated in the near term. Potential headwinds from higher rates will not necessarily result in a declining share price, however. Sentiment and psychology play a huge role as well, and an increasing focus on the Metaverse could help MSFT's share price. Microsoft is seen as one of the most likely winners in the future Metaverse by many investors, particularly in the \"work Metaverse\", where MSFT seeks to become successful on both the software side and the hardware side - with products such as the HoloLens 2. If this narrative holds, and if enthusiasm around the Metaverse remains high or continues to grow, Microsoft could see its shares perform well despite an above-average valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，微软的估值相当高，这一点不容忽视。从长远来看，盈利增长可能会导致股价大幅上涨，但这并不意味着一个月或一年后股价一定会走高。2022年，我们可能会看到美联储多次加息，这可能会给微软等昂贵的成长型股票带来压力——由于未来所有利润的很大一部分都在未来，它们将感受到贴现率上升的更明显影响与短期内将产生更高比例未来利润的价值型股票相比。然而，利率上升带来的潜在阻力不一定会导致股价下跌。情绪和心理也发挥着巨大作用，对元宇宙的日益关注可能会有助于MSFT的股价。微软被许多投资者视为未来元宇宙中最有可能的赢家之一，特别是在“工作元宇宙”中，MSFT寻求在软件和硬件方面取得成功——凭借HoloLens 2等产品。如果这种说法成立，并且如果围绕虚拟宇宙的热情仍然很高或继续增长，那么尽管估值高于平均水平，微软的股价可能会表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, there are both opportunities and threats for MSFT's shares in 2022. The company will do well on an operating basis, as it has for many years. Shares will, according to the analyst community, deliver total returns of about 10% next year. I am a little more conservative and think that there is a good chance that returns will be in the single digits due to multiple contraction headwinds. For someone interested in holding MSFT for many years - and the company seems like a great choice for such an investment - the performance in 2022 won't matter too much, however, and MSFT is positioned to perform well on an operational basis for many years, with exposure to many growth markets such as cloud computing, gaming, and the Metaverse (I see MSFT as a much better Metaverse play than NVIDIA (NVDA), trading at almost 70x net profits).</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，2022年MSFT的股票机遇与威胁并存。该公司将一如既往地在运营基础上表现良好。据分析师界称，明年股票的总回报率将达到10%左右。我比较保守一点，认为由于多重收缩阻力，回报率很有可能达到个位数。对于有兴趣持有MSFT多年的人来说——该公司似乎是此类投资的绝佳选择——然而，2022年的业绩不会太重要，而且MSFT的运营基础将在未来几年表现良好，涉足云计算、游戏和元宇宙等许多增长型市场（我认为MSFT是比英伟达(NVDA)好得多的元宇宙公司，其净利润几乎是70倍）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>微软股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>微软股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-28 21:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Microsoft had an excellent 2021, but that will not repeat in 2022.</li> <li>Still, analysts predict that MSFT will deliver double-digit returns next year. I am a little more conservative due to MSFT's high valuation.</li> <li>Microsoft Corporation is an excellent long-term investment, but waiting for a better entry point could pay off, as shares are historically expensive today.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78cf4b56323a37eacd27b73ced593338\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1082\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软在2021年表现出色，但2022年不会重演。</li><li>尽管如此，分析师预测MSFT明年将实现两位数的回报。由于MSFT的高估值，我有点保守。</li><li>微软公司是一项出色的长期投资，但等待更好的切入点可能会有回报，因为今天的股价历来都很昂贵。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is one of the most dominant tech companies in the world, and as part of the GAMMA group, it has performed very well in 2021. That was partially driven by underlying business growth, but multiple expansion also played a role. Microsoft is trading at a relatively high valuation - due to its quality and solid growth opportunities, a premium valuation seems justified, but with interest rate increases looming, MSFT could still experience multiple contraction headwinds over the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>微软公司（MSFT）是全球最具主导地位的科技公司之一，作为GAMMA集团的一部分，它在2021年表现非常出色。这在一定程度上是由基础业务增长推动的，但多重扩张也发挥了作用。微软的估值相对较高——由于其质量和稳健的增长机会，溢价估值似乎是合理的，但随着加息的临近，MSFT在未来几年仍可能面临多重收缩阻力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Microsoft Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>微软估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft Corporation is a leading tech company with a huge moat across its core businesses and with attractive growth opportunities in areas such as cloud computing and the emerging Metaverse. On top of that, Microsoft has excellent fundamentals, which include huge returns on capital, high margins, and a fortress balance sheet - one of only two in the world that are AAA-rated. It is thus not too surprising to see Microsoft trade at an above-average valuation, but MSFT currently also trades at a considerable premium relative to how shares of the company were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>微软公司是一家领先的科技公司，其核心业务拥有巨大的护城河，并在云计算和新兴元宇宙等领域拥有诱人的增长机会。最重要的是，微软拥有出色的基本面，包括巨额资本回报、高利润率和强大的资产负债表——世界上仅有的两家AAA评级公司之一。因此，微软的估值高于平均水平也就不足为奇了，但MSFT目前的交易价格相对于该公司股票过去的估值也有相当大的溢价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212ee5adb6f1e19137d2c30aa0a446d5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At current prices of around $335, Microsoft Corporation is valued at a little more than 36x forward earnings, which equates to an earnings yield of slightly less than 3%. This represents a ~15% premium compared to the 5-year median earnings multiple, and a pretty hefty 33% premium relative to the 10-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>按目前约335美元的价格计算，微软公司的预期市盈率略高于36倍，相当于收益率略低于3%。与5年市盈率中位数相比，这意味着约15%的溢价，与10年市盈率中位数相比，溢价相当高达33%。</blockquote></p><p> To some degree, one can argue that the rise in Microsoft's earnings multiple over the last decade was justified, as the company successfully managed to turn into a cloud- and mobile-centric company - which was not guaranteed a decade ago. Nevertheless, when a company's shares are valued at a hefty premium compared to the longer-term average, investors should consider the downside risk from multiple compression potential.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，人们可以说微软过去十年市盈率的上升是合理的，因为该公司成功转型为一家以云和移动为中心的公司——这在十年前是无法保证的。然而，当一家公司的股票估值较长期平均水平大幅溢价时，投资者应考虑多重压缩潜力带来的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at Microsoft's valuation on an enterprise value to EBITDA basis, which accounts for changes in debt usage over time, MSFT seems pricey as well:</p><p><blockquote>看看微软基于企业价值与EBITDA的估值（考虑了债务使用随时间的变化），MSFT似乎也很昂贵：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58a0bd4255e3439c13c1a2f68d9e782\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 25x forward EBITDA, Microsoft Corporation is trading at a relatively high valuation in absolute terms, and also at a quite large ~100% premium relative to the 10-year median EBITDA multiple of 12.7. Microsoft's net cash position, as a percentage of its market capitalization, has declined over the last couple of years, which resulted in a growing enterprise value (where net cash is subtracted), which explains some of the EV/EBITDA multiple expansion seen in the recent past. Still, Microsoft has clearly seen its valuation expand by a lot over the last couple of years. For those that bought into MSFT early on, that was great, as they saw their shares surge due to multiple expansion tailwinds. For someone thinking about investing new money today, the multiple expansion that we have seen in the last couple of year's isn't great, however, since putting new money into shares at historically high valuations could result in below-average returns due to headwinds from multiple compression, when the valuation normalizes towards the historic range.</p><p><blockquote>以25倍的远期EBITDA计算，微软公司的绝对估值相对较高，相对于12.7的10年EBITDA中位数倍数也有相当大的约100%的溢价。微软的净现金头寸占其市值的百分比在过去几年中有所下降，这导致企业价值不断增长（减去净现金），这解释了EV/EBITDA倍数扩张的部分原因。最近的过去。尽管如此，微软的估值在过去几年中明显扩大了很多。对于那些早期买入MSFT的人来说，这太好了，因为他们看到自己的股价因多重扩张利好而飙升。然而，对于今天考虑投资新资金的人来说，我们在过去几年中看到的倍数扩张并不是很大，因为以历史高估值将新资金投入股票可能会因逆风而导致低于平均水平的回报。当估值正常化至历史区间时，多重压缩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Microsoft Stock Expected To Rise?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>微软股票预计会上涨吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In the long run, Microsoft will, I believe, almost certainly experience share price gains. The company will deliver business growth for many years, which should result in rising profits, and as MSFT is buying back shares regularly, those profits are distributed over a shrinking number of shares, leading to additional earnings per share growth tailwinds. With EPS rising, possibly for decades, MSFT's shares will also rise in the long run - although not at the rate seen in the last couple of years. In the near term, share price gains are less certain - earnings per share will most likely be higher next year compared to the current year, but due to the high valuation MSFT trades at right now, earnings per share gains could be offset by multiple contraction. This multiple contraction is not a certainty, of course, but could occur if interest rates rise faster/earlier than expected, or if the broad market experiences a correction, etc.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，从长远来看，微软几乎肯定会经历股价上涨。该公司将实现多年的业务增长，这应该会导致利润上升，而且由于MSFT定期回购股票，这些利润将分配给不断减少的股票数量，从而带来额外的每股收益增长推动力。随着每股收益的上升（可能持续数十年），从长远来看，MSFT的股价也将上涨——尽管不会以过去几年的速度上涨。短期内，股价涨幅不太确定——明年每股收益很可能会高于今年，但由于MSFT目前的高估值，每股收益涨幅可能会被多重收缩所抵消。当然，这种倍数收缩并不是必然的，但如果利率上升得比预期更快/更早，或者如果大盘经历回调等，就可能发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Is Microsoft Stock's Prediction For 2022?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>微软股票对2022年的预测是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's first take a look at what Wall Street thinks about this question:</p><p><blockquote>我们先来看看华尔街是怎么看待这个问题的：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/872df9c2e4729887768acc7be770d03c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one can see in the above chart, analysts believe that Microsoft will experience attractive share price gains in 2022. The current consensus price target stands at $371, which implies an upside of around 10% from the current level over the next twelve months, as that is the usual time frame for Wall Street price targets. Price gains of 10%, with a dividend yield of 0.7% on top of that, would be a pretty attractive return, although that still pales in comparison to the returns MSFT generated over the last couple of years - shares are up 51% over the last twelve months and rose by a massive 430% over the last five years. It is, I believe, almost certain that returns like that will not be possible going forward - the law of large numbers dictates that adding 10%, 20%, or more per year to a company's market cap becomes increasingly hard as a company grows in size. Quintupling MSFT's market cap from $500 billion to $2.5 trillion over the last five years was quite a feat already, but quintupling it again - which would require adding<i>$10 trillion</i>in market cap - seems extremely unlikely, at least for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>从上图可以看出，分析师认为微软将在2022年经历有吸引力的股价上涨。目前的共识目标价为371美元，这意味着未来12个月较当前水平上涨约10%，因为这是华尔街价格目标的通常时间框架。10%的价格涨幅，加上0.7%的股息收益率，将是一个相当有吸引力的回报，尽管与MSFT过去几年产生的回报相比仍然相形见绌——股价在过去12个月内上涨了51%，过去五年大幅上涨了430%。我相信，几乎可以肯定的是，这样的回报在未来是不可能的——大数定律表明，随着公司规模的增长，公司市值每年增加10%、20%或更多变得越来越困难。在过去五年里，MSFT的市值从5000亿美元增加到2.5万亿美元已经是一项相当大的壮举，但再增加五倍——这需要增加<i>10万亿美元</i>就市值而言——似乎极不可能，至少在可预见的未来是这样。</blockquote></p><p> If analysts are correct, MSFT will thus deliver very solid returns in 2022, but those won't be comparable to what we have seen in previous years. For those that believe that MSFT will continue to compound at the rate seen in the recent past, 2022 could thus be a major disappointment. Analysts tend to be somewhat optimistic with their price targets, thus it is also possible that MSFT will deliver total returns that are weaker compared to what analysts are predicting. Current estimates see MSFT earning $10.50 next fiscal year (which ends in June 2023 and starts in July 2022) - if MSFT were to trade at 33x that number a year from now, which would still not be a low valuation at all, its shares would essentially trade in-line with where they trade today.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，MSFT将在2022年带来非常稳健的回报，但这些回报无法与我们前几年看到的相比。对于那些相信MSFT将继续以最近的速度复合的人来说，2022年可能会令人大失所望。分析师往往对他们的价格目标有些乐观，因此MSFT的总回报也有可能弱于分析师的预测。目前的估计是MSFT下一财年（2023年6月结束，2022年7月开始）的盈利为10.50美元——如果MSFT一年后的交易价格是该数字的33倍，这仍然不是一个低估值，那么其股价基本上与今天的交易情况一致。</blockquote></p><p> I am thus more conservative than the analyst consensus and believe that MSFT could deliver returns of less than 10% in 2022. Depending on overall market conditions, even a share price decline is possible - not due to MSFT being a bad company, but due to it being a great company trading at a valuation that is well above historical levels.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我比分析师的共识更加保守，认为MSFT在2022年的回报率可能低于10%。根据整体市场状况，甚至股价下跌也是可能的——不是因为MSFT是一家糟糕的公司，而是因为它是一家伟大的公司，其估值远高于历史水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is MSFT Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>MSFT股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is one of the best investments in the world, I believe, when we back out valuation for a second. The company has an excellent moat across its cash cows MS Office, and its operating system business, and is one of the leaders in the fast-growing cloud computing business with its Azure division. Microsoft also has strong leadership, sports excellent fundamentals and the company is one of only two companies in the world with a AAA rating. Strong cash flows allow Microsoft to return many billions of dollars every year to the company's owners via buybacks and dividends. Last but not least, Microsoft benefits from strong industry tailwinds, as the world is growing ever more interconnected and digitalized, which provides for solid growth tailwinds across Microsoft's many different business units, including cloud computing, Office, and even in areas such as Gaming.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，当我们暂时放弃估值时，微软是世界上最好的投资之一。该公司在其摇钱树MS Office和操作系统业务上拥有出色的护城河，并且凭借其Azure部门成为快速增长的云计算业务的领导者之一。微软还拥有强大的领导力、良好的基本面，该公司是全球仅有的两家获得AAA评级的公司之一。强劲的现金流使微软每年通过回购和股息向公司所有者返还数十亿美元。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，微软受益于强劲的行业顺风，因为世界变得越来越互联和数字化，这为微软的许多不同业务部门提供了坚实的增长顺风，包括云计算、办公，甚至游戏等领域。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Microsoft's valuation is, however, pretty high, and that should not be neglected. In the long run, earnings growth will likely result in ample share price upside, but that does not mean that shares will necessarily trade higher a month or a year from now. In 2022, we will likely see several Fed rate hikes, and those could put pressure on expensive growth stocks such as Microsoft - with a large portion of all future profits lying in the future, they will feel a more pronounced impact from a rising discount rate compared to value stocks where a higher portion of all future profits will be generated in the near term. Potential headwinds from higher rates will not necessarily result in a declining share price, however. Sentiment and psychology play a huge role as well, and an increasing focus on the Metaverse could help MSFT's share price. Microsoft is seen as one of the most likely winners in the future Metaverse by many investors, particularly in the \"work Metaverse\", where MSFT seeks to become successful on both the software side and the hardware side - with products such as the HoloLens 2. If this narrative holds, and if enthusiasm around the Metaverse remains high or continues to grow, Microsoft could see its shares perform well despite an above-average valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，微软的估值相当高，这一点不容忽视。从长远来看，盈利增长可能会导致股价大幅上涨，但这并不意味着一个月或一年后股价一定会走高。2022年，我们可能会看到美联储多次加息，这可能会给微软等昂贵的成长型股票带来压力——由于未来所有利润的很大一部分都在未来，它们将感受到贴现率上升的更明显影响与短期内将产生更高比例未来利润的价值型股票相比。然而，利率上升带来的潜在阻力不一定会导致股价下跌。情绪和心理也发挥着巨大作用，对元宇宙的日益关注可能会有助于MSFT的股价。微软被许多投资者视为未来元宇宙中最有可能的赢家之一，特别是在“工作元宇宙”中，MSFT寻求在软件和硬件方面取得成功——凭借HoloLens 2等产品。如果这种说法成立，并且如果围绕虚拟宇宙的热情仍然很高或继续增长，那么尽管估值高于平均水平，微软的股价可能会表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, there are both opportunities and threats for MSFT's shares in 2022. The company will do well on an operating basis, as it has for many years. Shares will, according to the analyst community, deliver total returns of about 10% next year. I am a little more conservative and think that there is a good chance that returns will be in the single digits due to multiple contraction headwinds. For someone interested in holding MSFT for many years - and the company seems like a great choice for such an investment - the performance in 2022 won't matter too much, however, and MSFT is positioned to perform well on an operational basis for many years, with exposure to many growth markets such as cloud computing, gaming, and the Metaverse (I see MSFT as a much better Metaverse play than NVIDIA (NVDA), trading at almost 70x net profits).</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，2022年MSFT的股票机遇与威胁并存。该公司将一如既往地在运营基础上表现良好。据分析师界称，明年股票的总回报率将达到10%左右。我比较保守一点，认为由于多重收缩阻力，回报率很有可能达到个位数。对于有兴趣持有MSFT多年的人来说——该公司似乎是此类投资的绝佳选择——然而，2022年的业绩不会太重要，而且MSFT的运营基础将在未来几年表现良好，涉足云计算、游戏和元宇宙等许多增长型市场（我认为MSFT是比英伟达(NVDA)好得多的元宇宙公司，其净利润几乎是70倍）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476985-microsoft-stock-forecast-what-to-watch-for-in-2022\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476985-microsoft-stock-forecast-what-to-watch-for-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181019415","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft had an excellent 2021, but that will not repeat in 2022.\nStill, analysts predict that MSFT will deliver double-digit returns next year. I am a little more conservative due to MSFT's high valuation.\nMicrosoft Corporation is an excellent long-term investment, but waiting for a better entry point could pay off, as shares are historically expensive today.\n\nJean-Luc Ichard/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nMicrosoft Corporation (MSFT) is one of the most dominant tech companies in the world, and as part of the GAMMA group, it has performed very well in 2021. That was partially driven by underlying business growth, but multiple expansion also played a role. Microsoft is trading at a relatively high valuation - due to its quality and solid growth opportunities, a premium valuation seems justified, but with interest rate increases looming, MSFT could still experience multiple contraction headwinds over the coming years.\nMicrosoft Valuation\nMicrosoft Corporation is a leading tech company with a huge moat across its core businesses and with attractive growth opportunities in areas such as cloud computing and the emerging Metaverse. On top of that, Microsoft has excellent fundamentals, which include huge returns on capital, high margins, and a fortress balance sheet - one of only two in the world that are AAA-rated. It is thus not too surprising to see Microsoft trade at an above-average valuation, but MSFT currently also trades at a considerable premium relative to how shares of the company were valued in the past.\nData by YCharts\nAt current prices of around $335, Microsoft Corporation is valued at a little more than 36x forward earnings, which equates to an earnings yield of slightly less than 3%. This represents a ~15% premium compared to the 5-year median earnings multiple, and a pretty hefty 33% premium relative to the 10-year median earnings multiple.\nTo some degree, one can argue that the rise in Microsoft's earnings multiple over the last decade was justified, as the company successfully managed to turn into a cloud- and mobile-centric company - which was not guaranteed a decade ago. Nevertheless, when a company's shares are valued at a hefty premium compared to the longer-term average, investors should consider the downside risk from multiple compression potential.\nLooking at Microsoft's valuation on an enterprise value to EBITDA basis, which accounts for changes in debt usage over time, MSFT seems pricey as well:\nData by YCharts\nAt 25x forward EBITDA, Microsoft Corporation is trading at a relatively high valuation in absolute terms, and also at a quite large ~100% premium relative to the 10-year median EBITDA multiple of 12.7. Microsoft's net cash position, as a percentage of its market capitalization, has declined over the last couple of years, which resulted in a growing enterprise value (where net cash is subtracted), which explains some of the EV/EBITDA multiple expansion seen in the recent past. Still, Microsoft has clearly seen its valuation expand by a lot over the last couple of years. For those that bought into MSFT early on, that was great, as they saw their shares surge due to multiple expansion tailwinds. For someone thinking about investing new money today, the multiple expansion that we have seen in the last couple of year's isn't great, however, since putting new money into shares at historically high valuations could result in below-average returns due to headwinds from multiple compression, when the valuation normalizes towards the historic range.\nIs Microsoft Stock Expected To Rise?\nIn the long run, Microsoft will, I believe, almost certainly experience share price gains. The company will deliver business growth for many years, which should result in rising profits, and as MSFT is buying back shares regularly, those profits are distributed over a shrinking number of shares, leading to additional earnings per share growth tailwinds. With EPS rising, possibly for decades, MSFT's shares will also rise in the long run - although not at the rate seen in the last couple of years. In the near term, share price gains are less certain - earnings per share will most likely be higher next year compared to the current year, but due to the high valuation MSFT trades at right now, earnings per share gains could be offset by multiple contraction. This multiple contraction is not a certainty, of course, but could occur if interest rates rise faster/earlier than expected, or if the broad market experiences a correction, etc.\nWhat Is Microsoft Stock's Prediction For 2022?\nLet's first take a look at what Wall Street thinks about this question:\nData by YCharts\nAs one can see in the above chart, analysts believe that Microsoft will experience attractive share price gains in 2022. The current consensus price target stands at $371, which implies an upside of around 10% from the current level over the next twelve months, as that is the usual time frame for Wall Street price targets. Price gains of 10%, with a dividend yield of 0.7% on top of that, would be a pretty attractive return, although that still pales in comparison to the returns MSFT generated over the last couple of years - shares are up 51% over the last twelve months and rose by a massive 430% over the last five years. It is, I believe, almost certain that returns like that will not be possible going forward - the law of large numbers dictates that adding 10%, 20%, or more per year to a company's market cap becomes increasingly hard as a company grows in size. Quintupling MSFT's market cap from $500 billion to $2.5 trillion over the last five years was quite a feat already, but quintupling it again - which would require adding$10 trillionin market cap - seems extremely unlikely, at least for the foreseeable future.\nIf analysts are correct, MSFT will thus deliver very solid returns in 2022, but those won't be comparable to what we have seen in previous years. For those that believe that MSFT will continue to compound at the rate seen in the recent past, 2022 could thus be a major disappointment. Analysts tend to be somewhat optimistic with their price targets, thus it is also possible that MSFT will deliver total returns that are weaker compared to what analysts are predicting. Current estimates see MSFT earning $10.50 next fiscal year (which ends in June 2023 and starts in July 2022) - if MSFT were to trade at 33x that number a year from now, which would still not be a low valuation at all, its shares would essentially trade in-line with where they trade today.\nI am thus more conservative than the analyst consensus and believe that MSFT could deliver returns of less than 10% in 2022. Depending on overall market conditions, even a share price decline is possible - not due to MSFT being a bad company, but due to it being a great company trading at a valuation that is well above historical levels.\nIs MSFT Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nMicrosoft is one of the best investments in the world, I believe, when we back out valuation for a second. The company has an excellent moat across its cash cows MS Office, and its operating system business, and is one of the leaders in the fast-growing cloud computing business with its Azure division. Microsoft also has strong leadership, sports excellent fundamentals and the company is one of only two companies in the world with a AAA rating. Strong cash flows allow Microsoft to return many billions of dollars every year to the company's owners via buybacks and dividends. Last but not least, Microsoft benefits from strong industry tailwinds, as the world is growing ever more interconnected and digitalized, which provides for solid growth tailwinds across Microsoft's many different business units, including cloud computing, Office, and even in areas such as Gaming.\nMicrosoft's valuation is, however, pretty high, and that should not be neglected. In the long run, earnings growth will likely result in ample share price upside, but that does not mean that shares will necessarily trade higher a month or a year from now. In 2022, we will likely see several Fed rate hikes, and those could put pressure on expensive growth stocks such as Microsoft - with a large portion of all future profits lying in the future, they will feel a more pronounced impact from a rising discount rate compared to value stocks where a higher portion of all future profits will be generated in the near term. Potential headwinds from higher rates will not necessarily result in a declining share price, however. Sentiment and psychology play a huge role as well, and an increasing focus on the Metaverse could help MSFT's share price. Microsoft is seen as one of the most likely winners in the future Metaverse by many investors, particularly in the \"work Metaverse\", where MSFT seeks to become successful on both the software side and the hardware side - with products such as the HoloLens 2. If this narrative holds, and if enthusiasm around the Metaverse remains high or continues to grow, Microsoft could see its shares perform well despite an above-average valuation.\nAll in all, there are both opportunities and threats for MSFT's shares in 2022. The company will do well on an operating basis, as it has for many years. Shares will, according to the analyst community, deliver total returns of about 10% next year. I am a little more conservative and think that there is a good chance that returns will be in the single digits due to multiple contraction headwinds. For someone interested in holding MSFT for many years - and the company seems like a great choice for such an investment - the performance in 2022 won't matter too much, however, and MSFT is positioned to perform well on an operational basis for many years, with exposure to many growth markets such as cloud computing, gaming, and the Metaverse (I see MSFT as a much better Metaverse play than NVIDIA (NVDA), trading at almost 70x net profits).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2755,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/696296931"}
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