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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":696307405,"tweetId":"696307405","gmtCreate":1640614518663,"gmtModify":1640614518760,"author":{"id":3582328341996873,"idStr":"3582328341996873","authorId":3582328341996873,"authorIdStr":"3582328341996873","name":"Sureshmaghi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f24399a2b49fd04a19b3004929417909","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Pp</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Pp</body></html>","text":"Pp","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696307405","repostId":1168370421,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168370421","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640607614,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1168370421?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-27 20:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Expect More Of These Rallies<blockquote>美光科技：期待更多此类反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168370421","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicron Technology stock recently rallied 10.5% in a single day.\nThe rally was probably due ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Micron Technology stock recently rallied 10.5% in a single day.</li> <li>The rally was probably due to a stellar earnings release the company put out the day before.</li> <li>Most likely, Micron will see continued upside, as demand for its products is only growing.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3cccfdfe04ca23523841d6775bbb072\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1075\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Georgijevic/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>美光科技股票最近单日上涨10.5%。</li><li>此次上涨可能是由于该公司前一天发布了出色的财报。</li><li>最有可能的是，美光将继续上涨，因为对其产品的需求只会增长。</li></ul>Georgijevic/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Micron Technology(MU) stock went on a pronounced rally Tuesday, rising 10.5% in a single trading day. It rallied another 5% on Thursday, leading to 15.66% gains for the week. The rally came immediately after a strong earnings release that beat on both revenue and profit. For the quarter, revenue came in at $7.69 billion (beat by $10 million) and EPS came in at $2.16 (beat by $0.02). The growth in EPS was impressive because it showed that the previous quarter’s stunning growth was no fluke.<blockquote>美光科技(MU) 股票周二大幅上涨，单个交易日上涨 10.5%。周四又上涨 5%，本周涨幅达 15.66%。此次上涨是在强劲的财报发布后立即出现的，该财报在收入和利润方面均超出了预期。本季度收入为 76.9 亿美元（超出 1000 万美元），每股收益为 2.16 美元（超出 0.02 美元）。每股收益的增长令人印象深刻，因为它表明上一季度的惊人增长并非侥幸。</blockquote> For the&nbsp;fourth quarter, Micron grew revenue by 37% and earnings by 175% year-over-year. It was an incredible achievement, one that few saw the company replicating. Fortunately, it did, with very similar results for the first quarter of fiscal 2022. Micron’s first quarter revenue growth was nearly as strong as its fourth quarter growth, and its earnings growth was actually slightly better, coming in at a whopping 177%.<blockquote>第四季度，美光收入同比增长37%，盈利同比增长175%。这是一项令人难以置信的成就，很少有人看到该公司能够复制。幸运的是，它确实做到了，2022 财年第一季度的业绩非常相似。美光第一季度的收入增长几乎与第四季度一样强劲，而盈利增长实际上略好一些，达到了高达 177%。</blockquote> Clearly, Micron has put a couple of great quarters behind it. Both the fourth and first quarters saw triple-digit growth in earnings, and the outlook was strong as well. The company forecast 20% growth in DRAM demand and 30% growth in demand for NAND. It expected its shipment growth for each category to be in-line with industry growth. It follows from this that Micron expects revenue growth between 20% and 30% assuming no price increases.<blockquote>显然，美光在背后放了几个很棒的硬币。第四季度和第一季度盈利均实现三位数增长，前景也很强劲。该公司预测 DRAM 需求将增长 20%，NAND 需求将增长 30%。它预计每个类别的出货量增长将与行业增长保持一致。由此可见，假设价格不上涨，美光预计收入将增长 20% 至 30%。</blockquote> It’s a pretty rosy picture. And some investors believe that this is only the beginning. Legendary value investors like Li Lu and Mohnish Pabrai are betting heavily on Micron, believing that the memory sector is undervalued. Indeed, it is, if Micron is any indication. The stock trades at just 12 times earnings even after Tuesday’s monster rally. By the standards of tech stocks, it’s super cheap. And it’s one of the few ways you can get exposure to the memory industry on its own, with no other tech stuff packaged in.Samsung(OTC:SSNLF) is the biggest memory player, but it’s not a pure play. SK Hynix (OTC:HXSCF) is a pure play and has&nbsp;multiples similar to Micron’s, with&nbsp;similar growth as well. That leaves us with basically two pure play memory stocks to choose from. And they’re both very cheap. So if you’re looking for dirt-cheap tech plays, memory is where you want to be.<blockquote>这是一幅非常美好的画面。而一些投资者认为，这仅仅是个开始。李璐和Mohnish Pabrai等传奇价值投资者纷纷押注美光，认为存储器板块被低估。确实如此，如果美光有任何迹象的话。即使在周二的大涨之后，该股的市盈率也仅为 12 倍。按照科技股的标准，它超级便宜。这是少数几种可以让你独自接触内存行业的方式之一，而无需其他技术手段。三星(OTC:SSNLF) 是最大的内存玩家，但这并不是一场纯粹的游戏。SK海力士（OTC:HXSCF）是一家纯粹的公司，其市盈率与美光相似，增长率也相似。这给我们留下了基本上两种纯游戏内存股票可供选择。而且它们都很便宜。因此，如果你正在寻找非常便宜的科技游戏，memory 就是你想要的地方。</blockquote> Micron is well positioned in the memory industry. It proved its mettle by withstanding the loss of Huawei’s business after the U.S. banned chip exports to China, coming back from the ordeal with a strong balance sheet. After seeing its&nbsp;revenue dip 8% in 2020,Micron is back to strong year-over-year growth, not only compared to 2020 but compared to 2019 as well. It looks like everything is full steam ahead for Micron. Accordingly I will develop a bullish thesis on the stock in this article, arguing that its unique mix of growth and value characteristics makes it a worthy buy.<blockquote>美光在存储器行业处于有利地位。在美国禁止向中国出口芯片后，华为经受住了业务的损失，证明了自己的勇气，并以强劲的资产负债表从磨难中恢复过来。在 2020 年收入下降 8% 后，美光恢复了强劲的同比增长，不仅与 2020 年相比，而且与 2019 年相比也是如此。美光看起来一切都如火如荼地进行着。因此，我将在本文中阐述对该股的看涨论点，认为其独特的增长和价值特征组合使其值得购买。</blockquote> Memory Industry Factors<blockquote>存储器行业因素</blockquote> Before looking at MU’s own fundamentals we need to look at the industry the company operates in. Micron forecasts that its growth will follow industry trends, so we need to know what the memory industry looks like.<blockquote>在研究 MU 自身的基本面之前，我们需要先看看该公司所处的行业。美光预测其增长将遵循行业趋势，因此我们需要知道内存行业是什么样子。</blockquote> The DRAM industry is basically an oligopoly between Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix. According to&nbsp;Statista, Samsung leads with 42%, SK Hynix is in second with 29%, and Micron is in third with 23%. There are other players but their market share is too small to be worth mentioning, the largest of them having 3.3%. The picture is a little different for NAND flash storage, with&nbsp;more major players, but Micron has a healthy 10% share there, too.<blockquote>DRAM行业基本上是美光、三星和SK海力士之间的寡头垄断。根据Statista的数据，三星以42%领先，SK海力士以29%位居第二，美光以23%位居第三。还有其他参与者，但他们的市场份额太小，不值得一提，其中最大的只有3.3%。NAND闪存存储的情况略有不同，有更多的主要参与者，但美光在那里也有10%的健康份额。</blockquote> So, Micron is a top player in the memory industry. It’s not #1, but it is one of the top two pure plays in the space. Its strong position in the industry isn’t disputed. The question is whether the industry’s own prospects are strong.<blockquote>因此，美光是内存行业的顶级玩家。虽然不是第一名，但却是该领域排名前两名的纯游戏之一。其在业内的强势地位毋庸置疑。问题是该行业本身的前景是否强劲。</blockquote> Micron, unsurprisingly, thinks that they are. In addition to forecasting 20%-30% growth in its verticals, the company also expects long-term CAGR growth ranging from the mid-teens to 30%. That would be great news if it materialized. With that said, you’d expect a company to say that its industry is strong. So we might want to look at some third-party opinions here.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，美光认为他们是。除了预测其垂直行业将增长 20%-30% 外，该公司还预计长期复合年增长率将在十几岁到 30% 之间。如果它成为现实，那将是一个好消息。话虽如此，你还是会期待一家公司说它的行业很强大。所以我们可能想在这里看看一些第三方的意见。</blockquote> The market research firm Verified Market Research&nbsp;expects the DRAM industry to grow at 8.7%. This is a little over half Micron’s internal forecast for DRAM demand. At 8.7% CAGR growth Micron would be growing slower than it is now, although that isn’t bad growth for a stock with a P/E of 11. Many bank stocks are more expensive than that and 8.7% revenue growth is a banner year for a bank.<blockquote>市场研究公司Verified Market Research预计DRAM行业将增长8.7%。这比美光公司对 DRAM 需求量的内部预测略高于一半。按照 8.7% 的复合年增长率计算，美光的增长速度将比现在慢，不过对于一只市盈率为 11 的股票来说，这样的增长还不错。许多银行股比这更贵，8.7% 的收入增长对于一家银行来说是一个辉煌的一年。</blockquote> As for NAND, I was able to find forecasts anywhere from 11% CAGR (Mordor Intelligence) to 22% (Valuates Reports). Again these don’t match Micron’s rosy forecasts, but are pretty optimistic themselves. Barely anybody is expecting the memory industry to decline, and most organizations are forecasting double digit growth. This makes sense when you consider who these companies serve. In addition to producing sticks of RAM and SD cards/personal SSDs for consumers, they also produce:<blockquote>至于NAND，我能够找到从11%的CAGR（魔多情报）到22%（估值报告）的预测。同样，这些数据与美光的乐观预测并不相符，但本身也相当乐观。几乎没有人预计内存行业会衰落，大多数组织预测内存行业将出现两位数的增长。当你考虑到这些公司为谁服务时，这是有道理的。除了为消费者生产内存条和SD卡/个人固态硬盘外，他们还生产：</blockquote> <ul> <li>RAM for 5G smartphones.<blockquote><ul><li>5G智能手机内存。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>SSDs for data centers.<blockquote><li>数据中心用固态硬盘。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Components for computer manufacturers.<blockquote><li>计算机制造商的组件。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> These are all strong growth sectors. Smartphone growth didslow down a bit from 2018 to 2020, but picked up again in 2021. Cloud computing is currently a huge growth driver for pretty much all of the companies in the space.Amazon(AMZN),Microsoft(MSFT) and&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOG) (GOOGL) are all seeing&nbsp;high double-digit growth in their cloud businesses. Companies like&nbsp;Meta Platforms(FB), which don’t operate cloud businesses, nevertheless rely heavily on data centers to run their own services. So there is massive and growing demand for DRAM and NAND from internet companies.<blockquote>这些都是强劲增长的板块。从2018年到2020年，智能手机的增长确实有所放缓，但在2021年再次回升。云计算目前是该领域几乎所有公司的巨大增长动力。亚马逊（亚马逊），微软（MSFT）和Alphabet（GOOG）（GOOGL）的云业务都实现了两位数的高增长。公司喜欢元平台(FB) 虽然不运营云业务，但却严重依赖数据中心来运营自己的服务。因此，互联网公司对DRAM和NAND的需求巨大且不断增长。</blockquote> What all this means is that powerful industry forces are driving the increase in demand for memory. It’s not just that the industry itself is growing, but the much larger industries it sells to are growing. This means there’s a basis for thinking that the memory industry’s strong growth will continue. As long as smartphones remain popular and data centers remain necessary, there’ll be a need for memory. And Micron is one of the three leading companies supplying it.<blockquote>这一切意味着强大的行业力量正在推动内存需求的增长。不仅仅是该行业本身在发展壮大，它销售给的更大的行业也在发展壮大。这意味着有理由认为内存行业的强劲增长将继续下去。只要智能手机继续流行，数据中心仍然必要，内存就会有需求。美光是提供 it 的三家领先公司之一。</blockquote> Financials and Valuation<blockquote>财务及估值</blockquote> Having looked at Micron’s industry position, we can now turn to its financials and valuation.<blockquote>在了解了美光的行业地位之后，我们现在可以看看它的财务状况和估值了。</blockquote> Micron Technology is, broadly, a highly profitable, fast-growing business with an attractive valuation. It’s one of the few stocks I’ve come across that scores ‘A’ or higher on four of Seeking Alpha Quant’s factors (growth, profitability, momentum and valuation), and a quick glance at the company’s financials shows why that’s the case.<blockquote>总的来说，美光科技是一家高利润、快速增长的企业，具有有吸引力的估值。这是我遇到的少数几只在 Seeking Alpha Quant 的四个因素（增长、盈利能力、势头和估值）上得分为 'A' 或更高的股票之一，快速浏览一下该公司的财务数据就会明白为什么会这样。</blockquote> First, let’s look at earnings for the most recent quarter. In the first quarter, Micron delivered:<blockquote>首先，让我们来看看最近一个季度的收益。第一季度，美光交付：</blockquote> <ul> <li>$7.68 billion in revenue, up 33% year over year (but down 7% sequentially).<blockquote><ul><li>收入76.8亿美元，同比增长33%（但环比下降7%）。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>$2.6 billion in operating income, up 203% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>经营利润26亿美元，同比增长203%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Net income: $2.3 billion, up 176% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>净利润：23亿美元，同比增长176%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Diluted EPS: $2.16, up 176% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>稀释每股收益：2.16美元，同比增长176%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Cash from operations: $3.9 billion, up 100% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>运营现金：39亿美元，同比增长100%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> These were pretty solid results. Not only was the growth strong, the profitability was strong as well. $2.6 billion in earnings on $7.6 billion in revenue gives us a 33% net margin. Extremely high. The company had $45 billion in equity for the period. That produces a somewhat unimpressive return on equity of 5.77%, althoughSeeking Alpha Quantshows a healthy 17% ROE for the full trailing 12 month period. So we’ve got decent earnings and profitability in the most recent period.<blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。不仅增长强劲，盈利能力也强劲。76 亿美元的收入中，26 亿美元的利润使我们的净利润率达到 33%。极高。该公司在此期间拥有 450 亿美元的股本。尽管 Seeking Alpha Quants 在过去 12 个月期间的净资产收益率为 17%，但这导致了 5.77% 的股本回报率有些不那么令人印象深刻。因此，我们在最近一段时间获得了不错的收益和盈利能力。</blockquote> The same holds true for the last five years as well. For the past five years, MU’s CAGR growth rates in select metrics have been:<blockquote>过去五年也是如此。在过去五年中，MU 在部分指标中的复合年增长率为：</blockquote> <ul> <li>18% in revenue.<blockquote><ul><li>收入的18%。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>90% in operating income.<blockquote><li>90%在经营利润。</li></blockquote></li> <li>118% in ROE.<blockquote><li>净资产收益率 118%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Unfortunately we can’t do the five-year CAGR calculation for net income or EPS because those figures were&nbsp;negative in 2016. However, if we start from 2015 and do a six year CAGR calculation, we get 16% six-year CAGR growth in EPS. Not quite as strong as the most recent quarter, but still very strong.<blockquote>遗憾的是，我们无法对净利润或每股收益进行五年复合年增长率计算，因为这些数字在 2016 年为负值。然而，如果我们从2015年开始进行六年CAGR计算，我们将获得16%的六年CAGR增长。不像最近一个季度那么强劲，但仍然非常强劲。</blockquote> So we’ve got very strong financials and growth from Micron. One strike the company has against it is earnings volatility. As you’ll note from above, earnings were negative in 2016. Also, they hit a peak in 2018 and then declined in 2019 and again in 2020–mostly due to the loss of Huawei. This is all reflected in the stock’s price history: it’s&nbsp;more volatile than average, with a 1.15 beta coefficient. Put simply, the stock isn’t for the faint of heart. Micron’s earnings have swung up and down dramatically throughout its history and that isn’t stopping any time soon. RAM prices arevery volatile, subject to massive booms and bust. This is part of RAM’s&nbsp;status as a commodity: companies buy it up in bulk from all suppliers and often stop buying when they have too much. This leads prices to go up and down as orders abruptly start and stop. Much like oil or coal, companies are sometimes just sitting on too much RAM to buy more.<blockquote>因此，我们从美光公司获得了非常强劲的财务状况和增长。该公司面临的一个挑战是盈利波动。如上所述，2016 年的盈利为负。此外，它们在2018年达到顶峰，然后在2019年和2020年再次下降——主要是由于华为的损失。这一切都反映在该股的价格历史中： 该股的波动性高于平均水平，贝塔系数为 1.15。简而言之，这只股票不适合胆小的人。美光公司的盈利在其历史上一直大起大落，而且这种情况不会很快停止。公羊价格波动很大，会经历大规模的繁荣和萧条。这是 RAM 作为商品地位的一部分： 公司从所有供应商那里批量购买，当库存过多时，往往会停止购买。当订单突然开始和停止时，这会导致价格上下波动。就像石油或煤炭一样，公司有时只是坐拥太多公羊而无法购买更多。</blockquote> With all that said, these factors are well priced into Micron’s stock. At today’s prices, Micron trades at 12 times adjusted earnings, 14.6 times GAAP earnings, 3.57 times sales, 2.3 times book value and 7.3 times operating cash flow. These are basically dirt cheap multiples for a high-growth tech stock. And while a company like Micron can’t count on steadily climbing earnings that never dip, it should keep delivering more value to shareholders as demand for phones, data centers and laptops grows.<blockquote>综上所述，这些因素在美光的股票中都得到了很好的定价。按今天的价格计算，美光的市盈率是调整后市盈率的 12 倍，GAAP 市盈率的 14.6 倍，销售额的 3.57 倍，账面价值的 2.3 倍，运营现金流的 7.3 倍。对于一只高增长科技股来说，这些基本上是非常便宜的市盈率。虽然像美光这样的公司不能指望盈利稳步攀升，永不下降，但随着手机、数据中心和笔记本电脑需求的增长，它应该继续为股东提供更多价值。</blockquote> The Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Micron Technology’s 15.6% one-week rally was no fluke. It was the expected result of a cheap stock well positioned to profit off of current tech trends, beating on earnings while having low multiples. As of December 2021, demand for DRAM and NAND flash is expected to keep growing. Whether Micron’s internal 20%-30% forecast will be hit remains to be seen, but even more modest forecasts call for growth in the 10%+ range. So, Micron’s business should continue to grow from here. Earnings growth will of course slow from the recent 175%, but it should remain strong for at least a few years.<blockquote>美光科技单周上涨 15.6% 并非侥幸。这是一只廉价股票的预期结果，它处于有利地位，可以从当前的技术趋势中获利，在市盈率较低的同时超出预期。截至2021年12月，对DRAM和NAND闪存的需求预计将持续增长。美光公司内部 20%-30% 的预测是否会实现还有待观察，但更温和的预测显示，看涨期权的增长率将在 10% 以上。因此，美光的业务应该会从这里继续增长。盈利增长当然会从最近的 175% 放缓，但至少在几年内应该会保持强劲。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Expect More Of These Rallies<blockquote>美光科技：期待更多此类反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Expect More Of These Rallies<blockquote>美光科技：期待更多此类反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-27 20:20\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Micron Technology stock recently rallied 10.5% in a single day.</li> <li>The rally was probably due to a stellar earnings release the company put out the day before.</li> <li>Most likely, Micron will see continued upside, as demand for its products is only growing.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3cccfdfe04ca23523841d6775bbb072\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1075\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Georgijevic/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>美光科技股票最近单日上涨10.5%。</li><li>此次上涨可能是由于该公司前一天发布了出色的财报。</li><li>最有可能的是，美光将继续上涨，因为对其产品的需求只会增长。</li></ul>Georgijevic/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Micron Technology(MU) stock went on a pronounced rally Tuesday, rising 10.5% in a single trading day. It rallied another 5% on Thursday, leading to 15.66% gains for the week. The rally came immediately after a strong earnings release that beat on both revenue and profit. For the quarter, revenue came in at $7.69 billion (beat by $10 million) and EPS came in at $2.16 (beat by $0.02). The growth in EPS was impressive because it showed that the previous quarter’s stunning growth was no fluke.<blockquote>美光科技(MU) 股票周二大幅上涨，单个交易日上涨 10.5%。周四又上涨 5%，本周涨幅达 15.66%。此次上涨是在强劲的财报发布后立即出现的，该财报在收入和利润方面均超出了预期。本季度收入为 76.9 亿美元（超出 1000 万美元），每股收益为 2.16 美元（超出 0.02 美元）。每股收益的增长令人印象深刻，因为它表明上一季度的惊人增长并非侥幸。</blockquote> For the&nbsp;fourth quarter, Micron grew revenue by 37% and earnings by 175% year-over-year. It was an incredible achievement, one that few saw the company replicating. Fortunately, it did, with very similar results for the first quarter of fiscal 2022. Micron’s first quarter revenue growth was nearly as strong as its fourth quarter growth, and its earnings growth was actually slightly better, coming in at a whopping 177%.<blockquote>第四季度，美光收入同比增长37%，盈利同比增长175%。这是一项令人难以置信的成就，很少有人看到该公司能够复制。幸运的是，它确实做到了，2022 财年第一季度的业绩非常相似。美光第一季度的收入增长几乎与第四季度一样强劲，而盈利增长实际上略好一些，达到了高达 177%。</blockquote> Clearly, Micron has put a couple of great quarters behind it. Both the fourth and first quarters saw triple-digit growth in earnings, and the outlook was strong as well. The company forecast 20% growth in DRAM demand and 30% growth in demand for NAND. It expected its shipment growth for each category to be in-line with industry growth. It follows from this that Micron expects revenue growth between 20% and 30% assuming no price increases.<blockquote>显然，美光在背后放了几个很棒的硬币。第四季度和第一季度盈利均实现三位数增长，前景也很强劲。该公司预测 DRAM 需求将增长 20%，NAND 需求将增长 30%。它预计每个类别的出货量增长将与行业增长保持一致。由此可见，假设价格不上涨，美光预计收入将增长 20% 至 30%。</blockquote> It’s a pretty rosy picture. And some investors believe that this is only the beginning. Legendary value investors like Li Lu and Mohnish Pabrai are betting heavily on Micron, believing that the memory sector is undervalued. Indeed, it is, if Micron is any indication. The stock trades at just 12 times earnings even after Tuesday’s monster rally. By the standards of tech stocks, it’s super cheap. And it’s one of the few ways you can get exposure to the memory industry on its own, with no other tech stuff packaged in.Samsung(OTC:SSNLF) is the biggest memory player, but it’s not a pure play. SK Hynix (OTC:HXSCF) is a pure play and has&nbsp;multiples similar to Micron’s, with&nbsp;similar growth as well. That leaves us with basically two pure play memory stocks to choose from. And they’re both very cheap. So if you’re looking for dirt-cheap tech plays, memory is where you want to be.<blockquote>这是一幅非常美好的画面。而一些投资者认为，这仅仅是个开始。李璐和Mohnish Pabrai等传奇价值投资者纷纷押注美光，认为存储器板块被低估。确实如此，如果美光有任何迹象的话。即使在周二的大涨之后，该股的市盈率也仅为 12 倍。按照科技股的标准，它超级便宜。这是少数几种可以让你独自接触内存行业的方式之一，而无需其他技术手段。三星(OTC:SSNLF) 是最大的内存玩家，但这并不是一场纯粹的游戏。SK海力士（OTC:HXSCF）是一家纯粹的公司，其市盈率与美光相似，增长率也相似。这给我们留下了基本上两种纯游戏内存股票可供选择。而且它们都很便宜。因此，如果你正在寻找非常便宜的科技游戏，memory 就是你想要的地方。</blockquote> Micron is well positioned in the memory industry. It proved its mettle by withstanding the loss of Huawei’s business after the U.S. banned chip exports to China, coming back from the ordeal with a strong balance sheet. After seeing its&nbsp;revenue dip 8% in 2020,Micron is back to strong year-over-year growth, not only compared to 2020 but compared to 2019 as well. It looks like everything is full steam ahead for Micron. Accordingly I will develop a bullish thesis on the stock in this article, arguing that its unique mix of growth and value characteristics makes it a worthy buy.<blockquote>美光在存储器行业处于有利地位。在美国禁止向中国出口芯片后，华为经受住了业务的损失，证明了自己的勇气，并以强劲的资产负债表从磨难中恢复过来。在 2020 年收入下降 8% 后，美光恢复了强劲的同比增长，不仅与 2020 年相比，而且与 2019 年相比也是如此。美光看起来一切都如火如荼地进行着。因此，我将在本文中阐述对该股的看涨论点，认为其独特的增长和价值特征组合使其值得购买。</blockquote> Memory Industry Factors<blockquote>存储器行业因素</blockquote> Before looking at MU’s own fundamentals we need to look at the industry the company operates in. Micron forecasts that its growth will follow industry trends, so we need to know what the memory industry looks like.<blockquote>在研究 MU 自身的基本面之前，我们需要先看看该公司所处的行业。美光预测其增长将遵循行业趋势，因此我们需要知道内存行业是什么样子。</blockquote> The DRAM industry is basically an oligopoly between Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix. According to&nbsp;Statista, Samsung leads with 42%, SK Hynix is in second with 29%, and Micron is in third with 23%. There are other players but their market share is too small to be worth mentioning, the largest of them having 3.3%. The picture is a little different for NAND flash storage, with&nbsp;more major players, but Micron has a healthy 10% share there, too.<blockquote>DRAM行业基本上是美光、三星和SK海力士之间的寡头垄断。根据Statista的数据，三星以42%领先，SK海力士以29%位居第二，美光以23%位居第三。还有其他参与者，但他们的市场份额太小，不值得一提，其中最大的只有3.3%。NAND闪存存储的情况略有不同，有更多的主要参与者，但美光在那里也有10%的健康份额。</blockquote> So, Micron is a top player in the memory industry. It’s not #1, but it is one of the top two pure plays in the space. Its strong position in the industry isn’t disputed. The question is whether the industry’s own prospects are strong.<blockquote>因此，美光是内存行业的顶级玩家。虽然不是第一名，但却是该领域排名前两名的纯游戏之一。其在业内的强势地位毋庸置疑。问题是该行业本身的前景是否强劲。</blockquote> Micron, unsurprisingly, thinks that they are. In addition to forecasting 20%-30% growth in its verticals, the company also expects long-term CAGR growth ranging from the mid-teens to 30%. That would be great news if it materialized. With that said, you’d expect a company to say that its industry is strong. So we might want to look at some third-party opinions here.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，美光认为他们是。除了预测其垂直行业将增长 20%-30% 外，该公司还预计长期复合年增长率将在十几岁到 30% 之间。如果它成为现实，那将是一个好消息。话虽如此，你还是会期待一家公司说它的行业很强大。所以我们可能想在这里看看一些第三方的意见。</blockquote> The market research firm Verified Market Research&nbsp;expects the DRAM industry to grow at 8.7%. This is a little over half Micron’s internal forecast for DRAM demand. At 8.7% CAGR growth Micron would be growing slower than it is now, although that isn’t bad growth for a stock with a P/E of 11. Many bank stocks are more expensive than that and 8.7% revenue growth is a banner year for a bank.<blockquote>市场研究公司Verified Market Research预计DRAM行业将增长8.7%。这比美光公司对 DRAM 需求量的内部预测略高于一半。按照 8.7% 的复合年增长率计算，美光的增长速度将比现在慢，不过对于一只市盈率为 11 的股票来说，这样的增长还不错。许多银行股比这更贵，8.7% 的收入增长对于一家银行来说是一个辉煌的一年。</blockquote> As for NAND, I was able to find forecasts anywhere from 11% CAGR (Mordor Intelligence) to 22% (Valuates Reports). Again these don’t match Micron’s rosy forecasts, but are pretty optimistic themselves. Barely anybody is expecting the memory industry to decline, and most organizations are forecasting double digit growth. This makes sense when you consider who these companies serve. In addition to producing sticks of RAM and SD cards/personal SSDs for consumers, they also produce:<blockquote>至于NAND，我能够找到从11%的CAGR（魔多情报）到22%（估值报告）的预测。同样，这些数据与美光的乐观预测并不相符，但本身也相当乐观。几乎没有人预计内存行业会衰落，大多数组织预测内存行业将出现两位数的增长。当你考虑到这些公司为谁服务时，这是有道理的。除了为消费者生产内存条和SD卡/个人固态硬盘外，他们还生产：</blockquote> <ul> <li>RAM for 5G smartphones.<blockquote><ul><li>5G智能手机内存。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>SSDs for data centers.<blockquote><li>数据中心用固态硬盘。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Components for computer manufacturers.<blockquote><li>计算机制造商的组件。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> These are all strong growth sectors. Smartphone growth didslow down a bit from 2018 to 2020, but picked up again in 2021. Cloud computing is currently a huge growth driver for pretty much all of the companies in the space.Amazon(AMZN),Microsoft(MSFT) and&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOG) (GOOGL) are all seeing&nbsp;high double-digit growth in their cloud businesses. Companies like&nbsp;Meta Platforms(FB), which don’t operate cloud businesses, nevertheless rely heavily on data centers to run their own services. So there is massive and growing demand for DRAM and NAND from internet companies.<blockquote>这些都是强劲增长的板块。从2018年到2020年，智能手机的增长确实有所放缓，但在2021年再次回升。云计算目前是该领域几乎所有公司的巨大增长动力。亚马逊（亚马逊），微软（MSFT）和Alphabet（GOOG）（GOOGL）的云业务都实现了两位数的高增长。公司喜欢元平台(FB) 虽然不运营云业务，但却严重依赖数据中心来运营自己的服务。因此，互联网公司对DRAM和NAND的需求巨大且不断增长。</blockquote> What all this means is that powerful industry forces are driving the increase in demand for memory. It’s not just that the industry itself is growing, but the much larger industries it sells to are growing. This means there’s a basis for thinking that the memory industry’s strong growth will continue. As long as smartphones remain popular and data centers remain necessary, there’ll be a need for memory. And Micron is one of the three leading companies supplying it.<blockquote>这一切意味着强大的行业力量正在推动内存需求的增长。不仅仅是该行业本身在发展壮大，它销售给的更大的行业也在发展壮大。这意味着有理由认为内存行业的强劲增长将继续下去。只要智能手机继续流行，数据中心仍然必要，内存就会有需求。美光是提供 it 的三家领先公司之一。</blockquote> Financials and Valuation<blockquote>财务及估值</blockquote> Having looked at Micron’s industry position, we can now turn to its financials and valuation.<blockquote>在了解了美光的行业地位之后，我们现在可以看看它的财务状况和估值了。</blockquote> Micron Technology is, broadly, a highly profitable, fast-growing business with an attractive valuation. It’s one of the few stocks I’ve come across that scores ‘A’ or higher on four of Seeking Alpha Quant’s factors (growth, profitability, momentum and valuation), and a quick glance at the company’s financials shows why that’s the case.<blockquote>总的来说，美光科技是一家高利润、快速增长的企业，具有有吸引力的估值。这是我遇到的少数几只在 Seeking Alpha Quant 的四个因素（增长、盈利能力、势头和估值）上得分为 'A' 或更高的股票之一，快速浏览一下该公司的财务数据就会明白为什么会这样。</blockquote> First, let’s look at earnings for the most recent quarter. In the first quarter, Micron delivered:<blockquote>首先，让我们来看看最近一个季度的收益。第一季度，美光交付：</blockquote> <ul> <li>$7.68 billion in revenue, up 33% year over year (but down 7% sequentially).<blockquote><ul><li>收入76.8亿美元，同比增长33%（但环比下降7%）。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>$2.6 billion in operating income, up 203% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>经营利润26亿美元，同比增长203%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Net income: $2.3 billion, up 176% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>净利润：23亿美元，同比增长176%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Diluted EPS: $2.16, up 176% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>稀释每股收益：2.16美元，同比增长176%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Cash from operations: $3.9 billion, up 100% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>运营现金：39亿美元，同比增长100%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> These were pretty solid results. Not only was the growth strong, the profitability was strong as well. $2.6 billion in earnings on $7.6 billion in revenue gives us a 33% net margin. Extremely high. The company had $45 billion in equity for the period. That produces a somewhat unimpressive return on equity of 5.77%, althoughSeeking Alpha Quantshows a healthy 17% ROE for the full trailing 12 month period. So we’ve got decent earnings and profitability in the most recent period.<blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。不仅增长强劲，盈利能力也强劲。76 亿美元的收入中，26 亿美元的利润使我们的净利润率达到 33%。极高。该公司在此期间拥有 450 亿美元的股本。尽管 Seeking Alpha Quants 在过去 12 个月期间的净资产收益率为 17%，但这导致了 5.77% 的股本回报率有些不那么令人印象深刻。因此，我们在最近一段时间获得了不错的收益和盈利能力。</blockquote> The same holds true for the last five years as well. For the past five years, MU’s CAGR growth rates in select metrics have been:<blockquote>过去五年也是如此。在过去五年中，MU 在部分指标中的复合年增长率为：</blockquote> <ul> <li>18% in revenue.<blockquote><ul><li>收入的18%。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>90% in operating income.<blockquote><li>90%在经营利润。</li></blockquote></li> <li>118% in ROE.<blockquote><li>净资产收益率 118%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Unfortunately we can’t do the five-year CAGR calculation for net income or EPS because those figures were&nbsp;negative in 2016. However, if we start from 2015 and do a six year CAGR calculation, we get 16% six-year CAGR growth in EPS. Not quite as strong as the most recent quarter, but still very strong.<blockquote>遗憾的是，我们无法对净利润或每股收益进行五年复合年增长率计算，因为这些数字在 2016 年为负值。然而，如果我们从2015年开始进行六年CAGR计算，我们将获得16%的六年CAGR增长。不像最近一个季度那么强劲，但仍然非常强劲。</blockquote> So we’ve got very strong financials and growth from Micron. One strike the company has against it is earnings volatility. As you’ll note from above, earnings were negative in 2016. Also, they hit a peak in 2018 and then declined in 2019 and again in 2020–mostly due to the loss of Huawei. This is all reflected in the stock’s price history: it’s&nbsp;more volatile than average, with a 1.15 beta coefficient. Put simply, the stock isn’t for the faint of heart. Micron’s earnings have swung up and down dramatically throughout its history and that isn’t stopping any time soon. RAM prices arevery volatile, subject to massive booms and bust. This is part of RAM’s&nbsp;status as a commodity: companies buy it up in bulk from all suppliers and often stop buying when they have too much. This leads prices to go up and down as orders abruptly start and stop. Much like oil or coal, companies are sometimes just sitting on too much RAM to buy more.<blockquote>因此，我们从美光公司获得了非常强劲的财务状况和增长。该公司面临的一个挑战是盈利波动。如上所述，2016 年的盈利为负。此外，它们在2018年达到顶峰，然后在2019年和2020年再次下降——主要是由于华为的损失。这一切都反映在该股的价格历史中： 该股的波动性高于平均水平，贝塔系数为 1.15。简而言之，这只股票不适合胆小的人。美光公司的盈利在其历史上一直大起大落，而且这种情况不会很快停止。公羊价格波动很大，会经历大规模的繁荣和萧条。这是 RAM 作为商品地位的一部分： 公司从所有供应商那里批量购买，当库存过多时，往往会停止购买。当订单突然开始和停止时，这会导致价格上下波动。就像石油或煤炭一样，公司有时只是坐拥太多公羊而无法购买更多。</blockquote> With all that said, these factors are well priced into Micron’s stock. At today’s prices, Micron trades at 12 times adjusted earnings, 14.6 times GAAP earnings, 3.57 times sales, 2.3 times book value and 7.3 times operating cash flow. These are basically dirt cheap multiples for a high-growth tech stock. And while a company like Micron can’t count on steadily climbing earnings that never dip, it should keep delivering more value to shareholders as demand for phones, data centers and laptops grows.<blockquote>综上所述，这些因素在美光的股票中都得到了很好的定价。按今天的价格计算，美光的市盈率是调整后市盈率的 12 倍，GAAP 市盈率的 14.6 倍，销售额的 3.57 倍，账面价值的 2.3 倍，运营现金流的 7.3 倍。对于一只高增长科技股来说，这些基本上是非常便宜的市盈率。虽然像美光这样的公司不能指望盈利稳步攀升，永不下降，但随着手机、数据中心和笔记本电脑需求的增长，它应该继续为股东提供更多价值。</blockquote> The Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Micron Technology’s 15.6% one-week rally was no fluke. It was the expected result of a cheap stock well positioned to profit off of current tech trends, beating on earnings while having low multiples. As of December 2021, demand for DRAM and NAND flash is expected to keep growing. Whether Micron’s internal 20%-30% forecast will be hit remains to be seen, but even more modest forecasts call for growth in the 10%+ range. So, Micron’s business should continue to grow from here. Earnings growth will of course slow from the recent 175%, but it should remain strong for at least a few years.<blockquote>美光科技单周上涨 15.6% 并非侥幸。这是一只廉价股票的预期结果，它处于有利地位，可以从当前的技术趋势中获利，在市盈率较低的同时超出预期。截至2021年12月，对DRAM和NAND闪存的需求预计将持续增长。美光公司内部 20%-30% 的预测是否会实现还有待观察，但更温和的预测显示，看涨期权的增长率将在 10% 以上。因此，美光的业务应该会从这里继续增长。盈利增长当然会从最近的 175% 放缓，但至少在几年内应该会保持强劲。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476781-micron-technology-expect-more-of-these-rallies\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476781-micron-technology-expect-more-of-these-rallies","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168370421","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicron Technology stock recently rallied 10.5% in a single day.\nThe rally was probably due to a stellar earnings release the company put out the day before.\nMost likely, Micron will see continued upside, as demand for its products is only growing.\n\nGeorgijevic/E+ via Getty Images\nMicron Technology(MU) stock went on a pronounced rally Tuesday, rising 10.5% in a single trading day. It rallied another 5% on Thursday, leading to 15.66% gains for the week. The rally came immediately after a strong earnings release that beat on both revenue and profit. For the quarter, revenue came in at $7.69 billion (beat by $10 million) and EPS came in at $2.16 (beat by $0.02). The growth in EPS was impressive because it showed that the previous quarter’s stunning growth was no fluke.\nFor the fourth quarter, Micron grew revenue by 37% and earnings by 175% year-over-year. It was an incredible achievement, one that few saw the company replicating. Fortunately, it did, with very similar results for the first quarter of fiscal 2022. Micron’s first quarter revenue growth was nearly as strong as its fourth quarter growth, and its earnings growth was actually slightly better, coming in at a whopping 177%.\nClearly, Micron has put a couple of great quarters behind it. Both the fourth and first quarters saw triple-digit growth in earnings, and the outlook was strong as well. The company forecast 20% growth in DRAM demand and 30% growth in demand for NAND. It expected its shipment growth for each category to be in-line with industry growth. It follows from this that Micron expects revenue growth between 20% and 30% assuming no price increases.\nIt’s a pretty rosy picture. And some investors believe that this is only the beginning. Legendary value investors like Li Lu and Mohnish Pabrai are betting heavily on Micron, believing that the memory sector is undervalued. Indeed, it is, if Micron is any indication. The stock trades at just 12 times earnings even after Tuesday’s monster rally. By the standards of tech stocks, it’s super cheap. And it’s one of the few ways you can get exposure to the memory industry on its own, with no other tech stuff packaged in.Samsung(OTC:SSNLF) is the biggest memory player, but it’s not a pure play. SK Hynix (OTC:HXSCF) is a pure play and has multiples similar to Micron’s, with similar growth as well. That leaves us with basically two pure play memory stocks to choose from. And they’re both very cheap. So if you’re looking for dirt-cheap tech plays, memory is where you want to be.\nMicron is well positioned in the memory industry. It proved its mettle by withstanding the loss of Huawei’s business after the U.S. banned chip exports to China, coming back from the ordeal with a strong balance sheet. After seeing its revenue dip 8% in 2020,Micron is back to strong year-over-year growth, not only compared to 2020 but compared to 2019 as well. It looks like everything is full steam ahead for Micron. Accordingly I will develop a bullish thesis on the stock in this article, arguing that its unique mix of growth and value characteristics makes it a worthy buy.\nMemory Industry Factors\nBefore looking at MU’s own fundamentals we need to look at the industry the company operates in. Micron forecasts that its growth will follow industry trends, so we need to know what the memory industry looks like.\nThe DRAM industry is basically an oligopoly between Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix. According to Statista, Samsung leads with 42%, SK Hynix is in second with 29%, and Micron is in third with 23%. There are other players but their market share is too small to be worth mentioning, the largest of them having 3.3%. The picture is a little different for NAND flash storage, with more major players, but Micron has a healthy 10% share there, too.\nSo, Micron is a top player in the memory industry. It’s not #1, but it is one of the top two pure plays in the space. Its strong position in the industry isn’t disputed. The question is whether the industry’s own prospects are strong.\nMicron, unsurprisingly, thinks that they are. In addition to forecasting 20%-30% growth in its verticals, the company also expects long-term CAGR growth ranging from the mid-teens to 30%. That would be great news if it materialized. With that said, you’d expect a company to say that its industry is strong. So we might want to look at some third-party opinions here.\nThe market research firm Verified Market Research expects the DRAM industry to grow at 8.7%. This is a little over half Micron’s internal forecast for DRAM demand. At 8.7% CAGR growth Micron would be growing slower than it is now, although that isn’t bad growth for a stock with a P/E of 11. Many bank stocks are more expensive than that and 8.7% revenue growth is a banner year for a bank.\nAs for NAND, I was able to find forecasts anywhere from 11% CAGR (Mordor Intelligence) to 22% (Valuates Reports). Again these don’t match Micron’s rosy forecasts, but are pretty optimistic themselves. Barely anybody is expecting the memory industry to decline, and most organizations are forecasting double digit growth. This makes sense when you consider who these companies serve. In addition to producing sticks of RAM and SD cards/personal SSDs for consumers, they also produce:\n\nRAM for 5G smartphones.\nSSDs for data centers.\nComponents for computer manufacturers.\n\nThese are all strong growth sectors. Smartphone growth didslow down a bit from 2018 to 2020, but picked up again in 2021. Cloud computing is currently a huge growth driver for pretty much all of the companies in the space.Amazon(AMZN),Microsoft(MSFT) and Alphabet(GOOG) (GOOGL) are all seeing high double-digit growth in their cloud businesses. Companies like Meta Platforms(FB), which don’t operate cloud businesses, nevertheless rely heavily on data centers to run their own services. So there is massive and growing demand for DRAM and NAND from internet companies.\nWhat all this means is that powerful industry forces are driving the increase in demand for memory. It’s not just that the industry itself is growing, but the much larger industries it sells to are growing. This means there’s a basis for thinking that the memory industry’s strong growth will continue. As long as smartphones remain popular and data centers remain necessary, there’ll be a need for memory. And Micron is one of the three leading companies supplying it.\nFinancials and Valuation\nHaving looked at Micron’s industry position, we can now turn to its financials and valuation.\nMicron Technology is, broadly, a highly profitable, fast-growing business with an attractive valuation. It’s one of the few stocks I’ve come across that scores ‘A’ or higher on four of Seeking Alpha Quant’s factors (growth, profitability, momentum and valuation), and a quick glance at the company’s financials shows why that’s the case.\nFirst, let’s look at earnings for the most recent quarter. In the first quarter, Micron delivered:\n\n$7.68 billion in revenue, up 33% year over year (but down 7% sequentially).\n$2.6 billion in operating income, up 203% year-over-year.\nNet income: $2.3 billion, up 176% year-over-year.\nDiluted EPS: $2.16, up 176% year-over-year.\nCash from operations: $3.9 billion, up 100% year-over-year.\n\nThese were pretty solid results. Not only was the growth strong, the profitability was strong as well. $2.6 billion in earnings on $7.6 billion in revenue gives us a 33% net margin. Extremely high. The company had $45 billion in equity for the period. That produces a somewhat unimpressive return on equity of 5.77%, althoughSeeking Alpha Quantshows a healthy 17% ROE for the full trailing 12 month period. So we’ve got decent earnings and profitability in the most recent period.\nThe same holds true for the last five years as well. For the past five years, MU’s CAGR growth rates in select metrics have been:\n\n18% in revenue.\n90% in operating income.\n118% in ROE.\n\nUnfortunately we can’t do the five-year CAGR calculation for net income or EPS because those figures were negative in 2016. However, if we start from 2015 and do a six year CAGR calculation, we get 16% six-year CAGR growth in EPS. Not quite as strong as the most recent quarter, but still very strong.\nSo we’ve got very strong financials and growth from Micron. One strike the company has against it is earnings volatility. As you’ll note from above, earnings were negative in 2016. Also, they hit a peak in 2018 and then declined in 2019 and again in 2020–mostly due to the loss of Huawei. This is all reflected in the stock’s price history: it’s more volatile than average, with a 1.15 beta coefficient. Put simply, the stock isn’t for the faint of heart. Micron’s earnings have swung up and down dramatically throughout its history and that isn’t stopping any time soon. RAM prices arevery volatile, subject to massive booms and bust. This is part of RAM’s status as a commodity: companies buy it up in bulk from all suppliers and often stop buying when they have too much. This leads prices to go up and down as orders abruptly start and stop. Much like oil or coal, companies are sometimes just sitting on too much RAM to buy more.\nWith all that said, these factors are well priced into Micron’s stock. At today’s prices, Micron trades at 12 times adjusted earnings, 14.6 times GAAP earnings, 3.57 times sales, 2.3 times book value and 7.3 times operating cash flow. These are basically dirt cheap multiples for a high-growth tech stock. And while a company like Micron can’t count on steadily climbing earnings that never dip, it should keep delivering more value to shareholders as demand for phones, data centers and laptops grows.\nThe Bottom Line\nMicron Technology’s 15.6% one-week rally was no fluke. It was the expected result of a cheap stock well positioned to profit off of current tech trends, beating on earnings while having low multiples. As of December 2021, demand for DRAM and NAND flash is expected to keep growing. Whether Micron’s internal 20%-30% forecast will be hit remains to be seen, but even more modest forecasts call for growth in the 10%+ range. So, Micron’s business should continue to grow from here. Earnings growth will of course slow from the recent 175%, but it should remain strong for at least a few years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2601,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/696307405"}