LohYK
2021-12-29
Definitely the stock for the future, but for now, one got to be patient
UiPath: Our Latest Strong Buy<blockquote>UiPath：我们最新的强力买入</blockquote>
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The business increases consumers' operational efficiency substantially. The management estimates more than $60 billion TAM. Our valuation models indicate that the stock is undervalued and represents strong growth opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath (PATH) 在快速增长的机器人过程自动化行业运营，并在竞争对手中处于领先地位。该业务大大提高了消费者的运营效率。管理层估计 TAM 超过 600 亿美元。我们的估值模型表明该股被低估，并代表着强劲的增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Currently working process includes lots of repetitive and time-consuming tasks, which hurt employee productivity substantially and cost enterprises huge profit losses. Automation processes are intended to solve the issue as AI technology \"learns\" task executing techniques and facilitates working process significantly. UiPath technology helps employees to automate processes like extraction of information from documents, updating databases, filling in forms, logging into applications etc. The services enable firms to cut employee-hours spent on mechanical, repetitive works and use their workforce for creative tasks with heightened productivity.</p><p><blockquote>目前的工作流程包括大量重复性和耗时的任务，这极大地损害了员工的生产力，并给企业带来了巨大的利润损失。自动化流程旨在解决这个问题，因为人工智能技术“学习”任务执行技术并显著促进工作流程。UiPath技术帮助员工自动化流程，如从文档中提取信息、更新数据库、填写表格、登录应用程序等。这些服务使公司能够减少员工花在机械、重复性工作上的时间，并将他们的劳动力用于提高生产率的创造性任务。</blockquote></p><p> UiPath offers 4 main solutions which are intended to help users to automate their working processes.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath提供4个主要解决方案，旨在帮助用户实现工作流程自动化。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>Discover</i> part allows users to find out new automation opportunities to reduce time spent on repetitive tasks and increase performance.</li> <li><i>Build</i> part enables to automate processes which are being discovered in the 1st phase. Users can create new processes form scratch or can use ready-to-use automation tools presented on marketplace.</li> <li><i>Manage</i> part enables users to manage processes, test new automation tools and conduct automation analysis.</li> <li><i>Engage</i> part provides an action center where developers can determine directions and interact with automation tools.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9831c394da1ecc63d7263c7a9bc97e0e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"629\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>发现</i>part允许用户发现新的自动化机会，以减少花费在重复性任务上的时间并提高性能。</li><li><i>建立</i>part支持在第一阶段发现的流程自动化。用户可以从头开始创建新流程，也可以使用市场上提供的现成自动化工具。</li><li><i>管理</i>part使用户能够管理流程、测试新的自动化工具和进行自动化分析。</li><li><i>从事</i>part提供了一个行动中心，开发人员可以在这里确定方向并与自动化工具进行交互。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Utility of the product is well presented in an example which indicates 5x increase of productivity of insurance claim processing team. Before the adoption of the product the 4 FTEs were able to process 5,300 claims per month while the number increased to 27,000 claims after adopting RPA solutions. RPA technology automated about 80% of the total work process as employees need to just review and approve the actions completed by the technology.</p><p><blockquote>该产品的实用性在一个例子中得到了很好的展示，该例子表明保险索赔处理团队的生产率提高了5倍。在采用该产品之前，4个FTE每月能够处理5,300份索赔，而在采用RPA解决方案后，这一数字增加到27,000份索赔。RPA技术自动化了大约80%的总工作流程，因为员工只需要审查和批准技术完成的操作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1afb0dab9f347a1210f4b0bd8f2d4726\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p> UiPath is the leader in the robotic process automation market which is estimated to be $1.57 billion total market in 2020. According to Grand View Research the industry will grow at a strong double digit growth rate recording 32.8% revenue CAGR until 2028. Increasing spending on RPA solutions is essential for businesses as it allows to cut overhead labor costs and improve productivity.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath 是机器人流程自动化市场的领导者，预计 2020 年总市场规模将达到 15.7 亿美元。根据Grand View Research的数据，到2028年，该行业将以强劲的两位数增长率增长，收入CAGR将达到32.8%。增加RPA解决方案的支出对企业来说至关重要，因为它可以削减间接劳动力成本并提高生产率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28b81100d6d29adbf59d797c97c95f2\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Grand View Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：大观研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to Gartner research UiPath is the leader in RPA industry. Gartner gave UiPath the highest ranking for the \"Ability to Execute\" and the third ranking for \"Completeness of Vision\".</p><p><blockquote>根据Gartner research，UiPath是RPA行业的领导者。Gartner给UiPath的“执行能力”排名最高，“愿景完整性”排名第三。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8240bc4d47eb71f3ead11113348d8ac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"707\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Forrester Wave also ranked UiPath as the leader in RPA industry. According to the research the company has the strongest strategy, the strongest current offerings and has larger presence in market than competitors.</p><p><blockquote>Forrester Wave还将UiPath列为RPA行业的领导者。根据研究，该公司拥有最强大的战略、最强大的当前产品，并且比竞争对手在市场上拥有更大的影响力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5290e9a785194f38c7121622f28f1a08\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"798\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, according to IDC research, the Intelligence Process Automation industry represents $17 billion market opportunity which is expected to grow at 16% CAGR until 2024, reaching a $30 billion level. UiPath management considers that the total addressable market is much larger with $60 billion opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，根据IDC research的数据，智能过程自动化行业代表着170亿美元的市场机会，预计到2024年将以16%的CAGR增长，达到300亿美元的水平。UiPath管理层认为，总潜在市场要大得多，有600亿美元的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23ef91945b197549e3e530ecd8b22b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The use of UiPath services attracts businesses to increase their spent on the platform as case studies indicate that companies start from minimal budgets and increase their expenses in 1-2 year period. A global pharmaceutical company spent $100K in Q1 2020 while the number increased 32x in Q4 2021. A Canadian public sector agency spent $30K in FY 2020, while its expenses increased by 69x in Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath服务的使用吸引了企业增加在该平台上的支出，因为案例研究表明，公司从最低预算开始，并在1-2年内增加支出。一家全球制药公司在2020年第一季度花费了10万美元，而在2021年第四季度，这一数字增加了32倍。一家加拿大公共部门机构在2020财年花费了3万美元，而在2021年第四季度其支出增加了69倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce02b8e5f55838665438fb3564638420\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nielsen (NLSN) is one of UiPath's consumers. The company provides information, data and market measurement services in more than 100 countries. The company needs to collect and analyze huge amount of data in a short period of time to stay competitive in its market. The company has already deployed UiPath RPA solutions in more than 40 countries and has saved approximately 350,000 working hours during the last 18 months. Nielsen expects to cut more than 500,000 working hours per year using UiPath services. The VP of global automation and head of Center of Excellence Oleg Royz expressed his opinion about UiPath RPA solutions.</p><p><blockquote>尼尔森（NLSN）是UiPath的消费者之一。该公司在100多个国家提供信息、数据和市场测量服务。该公司需要在短时间内收集和分析大量数据，以保持市场竞争力。该公司已经在40多个国家部署了UiPath RPA解决方案，并在过去18个月中节省了约350,000个工作小时。尼尔森预计每年使用 UiPath 服务减少超过 50 万小时的工作时间。全球自动化副总裁兼卓越中心负责人Oleg Royz表达了他对UiPath RPA解决方案的看法。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, people didn’t realize that they were like the glue, managing all of these processes, and we’re changing that narrative. We tell them, don’t be the glue; be the value, and let the robots be the glue that connects the dots. So when you come to work, data is extracted and ready for you to make your analysis and provide your insights. Global audit firm PwC also uses UiPath platform which helped the company to automate more than 200 operations. The company has already deployed 40K robots and saved more than 5 million working hours. Kevin Kroen - Partner, Intelligent Automation and Digital Upskilling Leader of PwC US shared his insights about the services of the company.</p><p><blockquote>过去，人们没有意识到他们就像胶水一样，管理着所有这些过程，而我们正在改变这种说法。我们告诉他们，不要做胶水；成为价值，让机器人成为连接点的胶水。因此，当您开始工作时，数据会被提取出来，并准备好供您进行分析和提供见解。全球审计公司普华永道也使用UiPath平台，该平台帮助该公司实现了200多项业务的自动化。该公司已经部署了4万台机器人，节省了500多万工时。普华永道美国合伙人、智能自动化和数字技能提升负责人Kevin Kroen分享了他对公司服务的见解。</blockquote></p><p> In our first year of using UiPath’s platform, we automated about five million hours of non-value-added work. We strongly believe that with the right approach RPA can transform any organization. UiPath services satisfy the majority of users as the platform has 4.5 rating out of 5 on gartner.com. The score is based on 1,700+ reviews. 98% of reviewers ranked the business 5 or 4, while none of them ranked 1 or 2. Users give quite high rating for product capabilities and for service support. On g2.com the company has 4.6 rating out of 5. The rating is based on 5,000+ reviews as more than 99% of reviewers ranked 5 or 4. The high satisfaction of consumers help the company to increase revenues from large enterprises as the number of consumers with $100K ARR increased from 899 to 1,363 YoY. At the same time the number of consumers with $1 million+ ARR increased from 74 to 135 YoY. The total number of consumers increased from 7,830 to 9,630.</p><p><blockquote>在使用 UiPath 平台的第一年，我们自动化了大约 500 万小时的非增值工作。我们坚信，通过正确的方法，RPA可以改变任何组织。UiPath服务满足了大多数用户，因为该平台在gartner.com上的评分为4.5分（满分5分）。该分数基于1700多条评论。98% 的评论者将企业排在 5 或 4 位，而没有人排在 1 或 2 位。用户对产品功能和服务支持给予了相当高的评价。在g2.com上，该公司的评分为4.6分（满分5分）。该评级基于5000多条评论，超过99%的评论者排名5或4。消费者的高满意度有助于公司增加来自大型企业的收入，因为拥有 10 万美元 ARR 的消费者数量从同比 899 人增加到 1,363 人。与此同时，ARR超过100万美元的消费者数量同比从74人增加到135人。消费者总数从7,830人增加到9,630人。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7aefeb5bbf20cf74a8a9400037bc189\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a result the company achieved 62% ARR CAGR in recent 2-year period while the revenue recorded 65% CAGR.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司在最近两年期间实现了 62% 的 ARR CAGR，而收入则录得 65% 的 CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Profitability</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利能力</b></blockquote></p><p> The company generates quite high gross profit margin which exceeded 80% level during the last 5 quarters. The EBITDA margin is currently better than in 2019 but it is in deep negative territory recording -52.2% result. Meanwhile the management was able to improve the operating cash flow level which is near 0% level.</p><p><blockquote>该公司产生了相当高的毛利率，在过去5个季度超过了80%的水平。EBITDA利润率目前好于2019年，但处于深度负值区域，录得-52.2%的结果。同时，管理层能够改善接近0%水平的经营现金流量水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1246d38f8fc1f298222299113a2fb457\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"215\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model, data from finbox.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型，数据来自finbox.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The negative EBITDA margin is attributed to substantial expense on selling and marketing. In 2019 the management spent more than 140% of revenues on S&M activity while the number declined to 76.8% by Q3 2021. UiPath business model doesn't require too much marketing expense in long-term horizon thus we think that the margin will improve substantially in upcoming years. At the same time the management spends 30% of revenues on R&D activities which is intended to offer advanced solutions to consumers.</p><p><blockquote>负 EBITDA 利润率归因于大量销售和营销费用。2019年，管理层将超过140%的收入用于S&M活动，而到2021年第三季度，这一数字下降至76.8%。从长远来看，UiPath 商业模式不需要太多的营销费用，因此我们认为未来几年利润率将大幅提高。与此同时，管理层将30%的收入用于研发活动，旨在为消费者提供先进的解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/942b96423184a0bd9f5996ee7c7b2ae4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model, data from finbox.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型，数据来自finbox.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Considering historic valuation of the stock since its IPO, we see the multiples are gradually declining. Currently the P/S TTM multiple is at 28.8 level, while since IPO average is 42.2. Price to Gross Profit ratio is at 35.2 level while the average is 50.8.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股自IPO以来的历史估值，我们看到市盈率正在逐渐下降。目前，市盈率TTM倍数为28.8，而自IPO以来的平均水平为42.2。市盈率为35.2，平均水平为50.8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9a895cda5ca5589c1c09de02ebddf5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model, data from finbox.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型，数据来自finbox.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To calculate the relative value of the stock we have collected data of top 100 tech stocks and built a regression model. We have regressed P/S FWD multiples against forecasted 3-year revenue CAGRs and TTM gross margins. As a result we have a model with R square of 69.3% and F stat of 108.5. The outputs generated by the software yield implied P/S FWD ratio of 32.1 which indicates stock value of $54. So the growth pace and the TTM profitability indicate undervaluation.</p><p><blockquote>为了计算股票的相对价值，我们收集了前 100 只科技股的数据并建立了回归模型。我们已将市盈率 FWD 倍数与预测的 3 年收入复合年增长率和 TTM 毛利率进行了回归。因此，我们有一个R平方为69.3%，F统计为108.5的模型。软件收益率产生的输出隐含市盈率为32.1，表明股票价值为54美元。因此，增长率和 TTM 盈利能力表明估值被低估。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ead34ddb414517239431c96bb5a88a9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"155\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model, data from finbox.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型，数据来自finbox.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To calculate the intrinsic value of the stock we have built a DCF model. First we calculate the WACC. To calculate beta coefficient we have regressed since IPO weekly price returns against S&P 500 (SPY) returns during the same period. As a result we have a beta of 1.7.</p><p><blockquote>为了计算股票的内在价值，我们建立了一个DCF模型。首先，我们计算WACC。为了计算贝塔系数，我们回归了自 IPO 以来的每周价格回报与同期标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）回报的对比。因此，我们有了1.7的测试版。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4317eb20db2015f6a5a5a65f10aef195\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For equity risk premium we have used 4.53% level and for risk-free rate we have used 2% input. As a result we have a WACC of 9.67%.</p><p><blockquote>对于股权风险溢价，我们使用了4.53%的水平，对于无风险利率，我们使用了2%的输入。因此，我们的WACC为9.67%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511cfff1a2f271be62b203e5e442f4ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"146\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the upcoming decade we anticipate revenue CAGR of 35% while our 2031 EBITDA estimate is 35%. In our model we anticipate gradual improvement to 2031 EBITDA target.</p><p><blockquote>对于未来十年，我们预计收入CAGR为35%，而我们对2031年EBITDA的估计为35%。在我们的模型中，我们预计 2031 年 EBITDA 目标将逐步改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3aa81ae8565e0df48b3ceab6fddc8d8\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a result our model yields intrinsic value of $62.3 which is 40% higher than the current stock price.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的模型产生的内在价值为 62.3 美元，比当前股价高出 40%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d101c5530c5824b58cec9b0e02116467\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"217\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the upcoming decade we anticipate 50% share count dilution and for 2031 we anticipate Price to FCF ratio of 35. The estimates yield 15% annual return opportunity during the upcoming decade.</p><p><blockquote>对于未来十年，我们预计股票数量稀释 50%，对于 2031 年，我们预计市盈率为 35。预计未来十年将产生 15% 的年回报机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f6fc0974a858b19a93b85dd1877a4a6\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"169\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also conducted scenario analysis to asses expected returns based on different EBITDA and revenue growth estimates. As a result our model indicates that we can expect double digit returns even if the company achieves 30% revenue CAGR.</p><p><blockquote>我们还进行了情景分析，以根据不同的EBITDA和收入增长估计评估预期回报。因此，我们的模型表明，即使公司实现 30% 的收入复合年增长率，我们也可以预期两位数的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d8129c7211d6b66b0ae0f775f79482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"74\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So our valuation models indicate that the stock value is quite attractive at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的估值模型表明，股票价值在当前水平上相当有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c032ca3bf90aafe1fcd37e592692577\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"68\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> UiPath's business has substantial growth opportunity. Consumers can increase the efficiency of their working processes substantially using company services. The company has quite a large total addressable market where it can capture significant market share given its competitive advantages. According to researches, UiPath has leading position in its industry. Consumers are highly satisfied from the services of the company. Our valuation models indicate that the growth potential of the business is not reflected in the stock price and investors can anticipate strong double-digit returns in upcoming decade. Thus we assign Strong Buy rating to the stock.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath的业务有巨大的增长机会。消费者可以通过使用公司服务大大提高其工作流程的效率。该公司拥有相当大的总潜在市场，鉴于其竞争优势，它可以在其中占据大量市场份额。根据研究，UiPath在其行业中处于领先地位。消费者对公司的服务非常满意。我们的估值模型表明，该业务的增长潜力并未反映在股价中，投资者可以预期未来十年将获得强劲的两位数回报。因此，我们对该股给予强烈买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> This article was written by Growth Analyst.</p><p><blockquote>本文由增长分析师撰写。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UiPath: Our Latest Strong Buy<blockquote>UiPath：我们最新的强力买入</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUiPath: Our Latest Strong Buy<blockquote>UiPath：我们最新的强力买入</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-28 16:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>UiPath RPA technology automates more than 80% of working processes.</li> <li>The company estimates more than $60 billion total addressable market opportunity.</li> <li>The company generates 80%+ gross margins.</li> <li>Buy below $62.3.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8276e37c7c48ba1ae10537dde9d34dfd\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"611\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>UiPath RPA技术自动化了80%以上的工作流程。</li><li>该公司估计潜在市场机会总额超过 600 亿美元。</li><li>该公司毛利率超过 80%。</li><li>低于 62.3 美元买入。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> UiPath (PATH) operates in a fast growing robotic process automation industry and has leading position against its competitors. The business increases consumers' operational efficiency substantially. The management estimates more than $60 billion TAM. Our valuation models indicate that the stock is undervalued and represents strong growth opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath (PATH) 在快速增长的机器人过程自动化行业运营，并在竞争对手中处于领先地位。该业务大大提高了消费者的运营效率。管理层估计 TAM 超过 600 亿美元。我们的估值模型表明该股被低估，并代表着强劲的增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Currently working process includes lots of repetitive and time-consuming tasks, which hurt employee productivity substantially and cost enterprises huge profit losses. Automation processes are intended to solve the issue as AI technology \"learns\" task executing techniques and facilitates working process significantly. UiPath technology helps employees to automate processes like extraction of information from documents, updating databases, filling in forms, logging into applications etc. The services enable firms to cut employee-hours spent on mechanical, repetitive works and use their workforce for creative tasks with heightened productivity.</p><p><blockquote>目前的工作流程包括大量重复性和耗时的任务，这极大地损害了员工的生产力，并给企业带来了巨大的利润损失。自动化流程旨在解决这个问题，因为人工智能技术“学习”任务执行技术并显著促进工作流程。UiPath技术帮助员工自动化流程，如从文档中提取信息、更新数据库、填写表格、登录应用程序等。这些服务使公司能够减少员工花在机械、重复性工作上的时间，并将他们的劳动力用于提高生产率的创造性任务。</blockquote></p><p> UiPath offers 4 main solutions which are intended to help users to automate their working processes.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath提供4个主要解决方案，旨在帮助用户实现工作流程自动化。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>Discover</i> part allows users to find out new automation opportunities to reduce time spent on repetitive tasks and increase performance.</li> <li><i>Build</i> part enables to automate processes which are being discovered in the 1st phase. Users can create new processes form scratch or can use ready-to-use automation tools presented on marketplace.</li> <li><i>Manage</i> part enables users to manage processes, test new automation tools and conduct automation analysis.</li> <li><i>Engage</i> part provides an action center where developers can determine directions and interact with automation tools.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9831c394da1ecc63d7263c7a9bc97e0e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"629\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>发现</i>part允许用户发现新的自动化机会，以减少花费在重复性任务上的时间并提高性能。</li><li><i>建立</i>part支持在第一阶段发现的流程自动化。用户可以从头开始创建新流程，也可以使用市场上提供的现成自动化工具。</li><li><i>管理</i>part使用户能够管理流程、测试新的自动化工具和进行自动化分析。</li><li><i>从事</i>part提供了一个行动中心，开发人员可以在这里确定方向并与自动化工具进行交互。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Utility of the product is well presented in an example which indicates 5x increase of productivity of insurance claim processing team. Before the adoption of the product the 4 FTEs were able to process 5,300 claims per month while the number increased to 27,000 claims after adopting RPA solutions. RPA technology automated about 80% of the total work process as employees need to just review and approve the actions completed by the technology.</p><p><blockquote>该产品的实用性在一个例子中得到了很好的展示，该例子表明保险索赔处理团队的生产率提高了5倍。在采用该产品之前，4个FTE每月能够处理5,300份索赔，而在采用RPA解决方案后，这一数字增加到27,000份索赔。RPA技术自动化了大约80%的总工作流程，因为员工只需要审查和批准技术完成的操作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1afb0dab9f347a1210f4b0bd8f2d4726\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p> UiPath is the leader in the robotic process automation market which is estimated to be $1.57 billion total market in 2020. According to Grand View Research the industry will grow at a strong double digit growth rate recording 32.8% revenue CAGR until 2028. Increasing spending on RPA solutions is essential for businesses as it allows to cut overhead labor costs and improve productivity.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath 是机器人流程自动化市场的领导者，预计 2020 年总市场规模将达到 15.7 亿美元。根据Grand View Research的数据，到2028年，该行业将以强劲的两位数增长率增长，收入CAGR将达到32.8%。增加RPA解决方案的支出对企业来说至关重要，因为它可以削减间接劳动力成本并提高生产率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28b81100d6d29adbf59d797c97c95f2\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Grand View Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：大观研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to Gartner research UiPath is the leader in RPA industry. Gartner gave UiPath the highest ranking for the \"Ability to Execute\" and the third ranking for \"Completeness of Vision\".</p><p><blockquote>根据Gartner research，UiPath是RPA行业的领导者。Gartner给UiPath的“执行能力”排名最高，“愿景完整性”排名第三。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8240bc4d47eb71f3ead11113348d8ac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"707\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Forrester Wave also ranked UiPath as the leader in RPA industry. According to the research the company has the strongest strategy, the strongest current offerings and has larger presence in market than competitors.</p><p><blockquote>Forrester Wave还将UiPath列为RPA行业的领导者。根据研究，该公司拥有最强大的战略、最强大的当前产品，并且比竞争对手在市场上拥有更大的影响力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5290e9a785194f38c7121622f28f1a08\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"798\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, according to IDC research, the Intelligence Process Automation industry represents $17 billion market opportunity which is expected to grow at 16% CAGR until 2024, reaching a $30 billion level. UiPath management considers that the total addressable market is much larger with $60 billion opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，根据IDC research的数据，智能过程自动化行业代表着170亿美元的市场机会，预计到2024年将以16%的CAGR增长，达到300亿美元的水平。UiPath管理层认为，总潜在市场要大得多，有600亿美元的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23ef91945b197549e3e530ecd8b22b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The use of UiPath services attracts businesses to increase their spent on the platform as case studies indicate that companies start from minimal budgets and increase their expenses in 1-2 year period. A global pharmaceutical company spent $100K in Q1 2020 while the number increased 32x in Q4 2021. A Canadian public sector agency spent $30K in FY 2020, while its expenses increased by 69x in Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath服务的使用吸引了企业增加在该平台上的支出，因为案例研究表明，公司从最低预算开始，并在1-2年内增加支出。一家全球制药公司在2020年第一季度花费了10万美元，而在2021年第四季度，这一数字增加了32倍。一家加拿大公共部门机构在2020财年花费了3万美元，而在2021年第四季度其支出增加了69倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce02b8e5f55838665438fb3564638420\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nielsen (NLSN) is one of UiPath's consumers. The company provides information, data and market measurement services in more than 100 countries. The company needs to collect and analyze huge amount of data in a short period of time to stay competitive in its market. The company has already deployed UiPath RPA solutions in more than 40 countries and has saved approximately 350,000 working hours during the last 18 months. Nielsen expects to cut more than 500,000 working hours per year using UiPath services. The VP of global automation and head of Center of Excellence Oleg Royz expressed his opinion about UiPath RPA solutions.</p><p><blockquote>尼尔森（NLSN）是UiPath的消费者之一。该公司在100多个国家提供信息、数据和市场测量服务。该公司需要在短时间内收集和分析大量数据，以保持市场竞争力。该公司已经在40多个国家部署了UiPath RPA解决方案，并在过去18个月中节省了约350,000个工作小时。尼尔森预计每年使用 UiPath 服务减少超过 50 万小时的工作时间。全球自动化副总裁兼卓越中心负责人Oleg Royz表达了他对UiPath RPA解决方案的看法。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, people didn’t realize that they were like the glue, managing all of these processes, and we’re changing that narrative. We tell them, don’t be the glue; be the value, and let the robots be the glue that connects the dots. So when you come to work, data is extracted and ready for you to make your analysis and provide your insights. Global audit firm PwC also uses UiPath platform which helped the company to automate more than 200 operations. The company has already deployed 40K robots and saved more than 5 million working hours. Kevin Kroen - Partner, Intelligent Automation and Digital Upskilling Leader of PwC US shared his insights about the services of the company.</p><p><blockquote>过去，人们没有意识到他们就像胶水一样，管理着所有这些过程，而我们正在改变这种说法。我们告诉他们，不要做胶水；成为价值，让机器人成为连接点的胶水。因此，当您开始工作时，数据会被提取出来，并准备好供您进行分析和提供见解。全球审计公司普华永道也使用UiPath平台，该平台帮助该公司实现了200多项业务的自动化。该公司已经部署了4万台机器人，节省了500多万工时。普华永道美国合伙人、智能自动化和数字技能提升负责人Kevin Kroen分享了他对公司服务的见解。</blockquote></p><p> In our first year of using UiPath’s platform, we automated about five million hours of non-value-added work. We strongly believe that with the right approach RPA can transform any organization. UiPath services satisfy the majority of users as the platform has 4.5 rating out of 5 on gartner.com. The score is based on 1,700+ reviews. 98% of reviewers ranked the business 5 or 4, while none of them ranked 1 or 2. Users give quite high rating for product capabilities and for service support. On g2.com the company has 4.6 rating out of 5. The rating is based on 5,000+ reviews as more than 99% of reviewers ranked 5 or 4. The high satisfaction of consumers help the company to increase revenues from large enterprises as the number of consumers with $100K ARR increased from 899 to 1,363 YoY. At the same time the number of consumers with $1 million+ ARR increased from 74 to 135 YoY. The total number of consumers increased from 7,830 to 9,630.</p><p><blockquote>在使用 UiPath 平台的第一年，我们自动化了大约 500 万小时的非增值工作。我们坚信，通过正确的方法，RPA可以改变任何组织。UiPath服务满足了大多数用户，因为该平台在gartner.com上的评分为4.5分（满分5分）。该分数基于1700多条评论。98% 的评论者将企业排在 5 或 4 位，而没有人排在 1 或 2 位。用户对产品功能和服务支持给予了相当高的评价。在g2.com上，该公司的评分为4.6分（满分5分）。该评级基于5000多条评论，超过99%的评论者排名5或4。消费者的高满意度有助于公司增加来自大型企业的收入，因为拥有 10 万美元 ARR 的消费者数量从同比 899 人增加到 1,363 人。与此同时，ARR超过100万美元的消费者数量同比从74人增加到135人。消费者总数从7,830人增加到9,630人。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7aefeb5bbf20cf74a8a9400037bc189\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UiPath</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：UiPath</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a result the company achieved 62% ARR CAGR in recent 2-year period while the revenue recorded 65% CAGR.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司在最近两年期间实现了 62% 的 ARR CAGR，而收入则录得 65% 的 CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Profitability</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利能力</b></blockquote></p><p> The company generates quite high gross profit margin which exceeded 80% level during the last 5 quarters. The EBITDA margin is currently better than in 2019 but it is in deep negative territory recording -52.2% result. Meanwhile the management was able to improve the operating cash flow level which is near 0% level.</p><p><blockquote>该公司产生了相当高的毛利率，在过去5个季度超过了80%的水平。EBITDA利润率目前好于2019年，但处于深度负值区域，录得-52.2%的结果。同时，管理层能够改善接近0%水平的经营现金流量水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1246d38f8fc1f298222299113a2fb457\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"215\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model, data from finbox.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型，数据来自finbox.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The negative EBITDA margin is attributed to substantial expense on selling and marketing. In 2019 the management spent more than 140% of revenues on S&M activity while the number declined to 76.8% by Q3 2021. UiPath business model doesn't require too much marketing expense in long-term horizon thus we think that the margin will improve substantially in upcoming years. At the same time the management spends 30% of revenues on R&D activities which is intended to offer advanced solutions to consumers.</p><p><blockquote>负 EBITDA 利润率归因于大量销售和营销费用。2019年，管理层将超过140%的收入用于S&M活动，而到2021年第三季度，这一数字下降至76.8%。从长远来看，UiPath 商业模式不需要太多的营销费用，因此我们认为未来几年利润率将大幅提高。与此同时，管理层将30%的收入用于研发活动，旨在为消费者提供先进的解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/942b96423184a0bd9f5996ee7c7b2ae4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model, data from finbox.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型，数据来自finbox.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Considering historic valuation of the stock since its IPO, we see the multiples are gradually declining. Currently the P/S TTM multiple is at 28.8 level, while since IPO average is 42.2. Price to Gross Profit ratio is at 35.2 level while the average is 50.8.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股自IPO以来的历史估值，我们看到市盈率正在逐渐下降。目前，市盈率TTM倍数为28.8，而自IPO以来的平均水平为42.2。市盈率为35.2，平均水平为50.8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9a895cda5ca5589c1c09de02ebddf5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model, data from finbox.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型，数据来自finbox.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To calculate the relative value of the stock we have collected data of top 100 tech stocks and built a regression model. We have regressed P/S FWD multiples against forecasted 3-year revenue CAGRs and TTM gross margins. As a result we have a model with R square of 69.3% and F stat of 108.5. The outputs generated by the software yield implied P/S FWD ratio of 32.1 which indicates stock value of $54. So the growth pace and the TTM profitability indicate undervaluation.</p><p><blockquote>为了计算股票的相对价值，我们收集了前 100 只科技股的数据并建立了回归模型。我们已将市盈率 FWD 倍数与预测的 3 年收入复合年增长率和 TTM 毛利率进行了回归。因此，我们有一个R平方为69.3%，F统计为108.5的模型。软件收益率产生的输出隐含市盈率为32.1，表明股票价值为54美元。因此，增长率和 TTM 盈利能力表明估值被低估。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ead34ddb414517239431c96bb5a88a9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"155\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model, data from finbox.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型，数据来自finbox.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To calculate the intrinsic value of the stock we have built a DCF model. First we calculate the WACC. To calculate beta coefficient we have regressed since IPO weekly price returns against S&P 500 (SPY) returns during the same period. As a result we have a beta of 1.7.</p><p><blockquote>为了计算股票的内在价值，我们建立了一个DCF模型。首先，我们计算WACC。为了计算贝塔系数，我们回归了自 IPO 以来的每周价格回报与同期标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）回报的对比。因此，我们有了1.7的测试版。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4317eb20db2015f6a5a5a65f10aef195\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For equity risk premium we have used 4.53% level and for risk-free rate we have used 2% input. As a result we have a WACC of 9.67%.</p><p><blockquote>对于股权风险溢价，我们使用了4.53%的水平，对于无风险利率，我们使用了2%的输入。因此，我们的WACC为9.67%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511cfff1a2f271be62b203e5e442f4ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"146\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the upcoming decade we anticipate revenue CAGR of 35% while our 2031 EBITDA estimate is 35%. In our model we anticipate gradual improvement to 2031 EBITDA target.</p><p><blockquote>对于未来十年，我们预计收入CAGR为35%，而我们对2031年EBITDA的估计为35%。在我们的模型中，我们预计 2031 年 EBITDA 目标将逐步改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3aa81ae8565e0df48b3ceab6fddc8d8\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a result our model yields intrinsic value of $62.3 which is 40% higher than the current stock price.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的模型产生的内在价值为 62.3 美元，比当前股价高出 40%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d101c5530c5824b58cec9b0e02116467\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"217\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the upcoming decade we anticipate 50% share count dilution and for 2031 we anticipate Price to FCF ratio of 35. The estimates yield 15% annual return opportunity during the upcoming decade.</p><p><blockquote>对于未来十年，我们预计股票数量稀释 50%，对于 2031 年，我们预计市盈率为 35。预计未来十年将产生 15% 的年回报机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f6fc0974a858b19a93b85dd1877a4a6\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"169\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also conducted scenario analysis to asses expected returns based on different EBITDA and revenue growth estimates. As a result our model indicates that we can expect double digit returns even if the company achieves 30% revenue CAGR.</p><p><blockquote>我们还进行了情景分析，以根据不同的EBITDA和收入增长估计评估预期回报。因此，我们的模型表明，即使公司实现 30% 的收入复合年增长率，我们也可以预期两位数的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d8129c7211d6b66b0ae0f775f79482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"74\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So our valuation models indicate that the stock value is quite attractive at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的估值模型表明，股票价值在当前水平上相当有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c032ca3bf90aafe1fcd37e592692577\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"68\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> UiPath's business has substantial growth opportunity. Consumers can increase the efficiency of their working processes substantially using company services. The company has quite a large total addressable market where it can capture significant market share given its competitive advantages. According to researches, UiPath has leading position in its industry. Consumers are highly satisfied from the services of the company. Our valuation models indicate that the growth potential of the business is not reflected in the stock price and investors can anticipate strong double-digit returns in upcoming decade. Thus we assign Strong Buy rating to the stock.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath的业务有巨大的增长机会。消费者可以通过使用公司服务大大提高其工作流程的效率。该公司拥有相当大的总潜在市场，鉴于其竞争优势，它可以在其中占据大量市场份额。根据研究，UiPath在其行业中处于领先地位。消费者对公司的服务非常满意。我们的估值模型表明，该业务的增长潜力并未反映在股价中，投资者可以预期未来十年将获得强劲的两位数回报。因此，我们对该股给予强烈买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> This article was written by Growth Analyst.</p><p><blockquote>本文由增长分析师撰写。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477008-uipath-our-latest-strong-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PATH":"UiPath"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477008-uipath-our-latest-strong-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179519193","content_text":"Summary\n\nUiPath RPA technology automates more than 80% of working processes.\nThe company estimates more than $60 billion total addressable market opportunity.\nThe company generates 80%+ gross margins.\nBuy below $62.3.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nUiPath (PATH) operates in a fast growing robotic process automation industry and has leading position against its competitors. The business increases consumers' operational efficiency substantially. The management estimates more than $60 billion TAM. Our valuation models indicate that the stock is undervalued and represents strong growth opportunity.\nCurrently working process includes lots of repetitive and time-consuming tasks, which hurt employee productivity substantially and cost enterprises huge profit losses. Automation processes are intended to solve the issue as AI technology \"learns\" task executing techniques and facilitates working process significantly. UiPath technology helps employees to automate processes like extraction of information from documents, updating databases, filling in forms, logging into applications etc. The services enable firms to cut employee-hours spent on mechanical, repetitive works and use their workforce for creative tasks with heightened productivity.\nUiPath offers 4 main solutions which are intended to help users to automate their working processes.\n\nDiscover part allows users to find out new automation opportunities to reduce time spent on repetitive tasks and increase performance.\nBuild part enables to automate processes which are being discovered in the 1st phase. Users can create new processes form scratch or can use ready-to-use automation tools presented on marketplace.\nManage part enables users to manage processes, test new automation tools and conduct automation analysis.\nEngage part provides an action center where developers can determine directions and interact with automation tools.\n\nSource: UiPath\nUtility of the product is well presented in an example which indicates 5x increase of productivity of insurance claim processing team. Before the adoption of the product the 4 FTEs were able to process 5,300 claims per month while the number increased to 27,000 claims after adopting RPA solutions. RPA technology automated about 80% of the total work process as employees need to just review and approve the actions completed by the technology.\nSource: UiPath\nUiPath is the leader in the robotic process automation market which is estimated to be $1.57 billion total market in 2020. According to Grand View Research the industry will grow at a strong double digit growth rate recording 32.8% revenue CAGR until 2028. Increasing spending on RPA solutions is essential for businesses as it allows to cut overhead labor costs and improve productivity.\nSource: Grand View Research\nAccording to Gartner research UiPath is the leader in RPA industry. Gartner gave UiPath the highest ranking for the \"Ability to Execute\" and the third ranking for \"Completeness of Vision\".\nSource: UiPath\nForrester Wave also ranked UiPath as the leader in RPA industry. According to the research the company has the strongest strategy, the strongest current offerings and has larger presence in market than competitors.\nSource: UiPath\nMeanwhile, according to IDC research, the Intelligence Process Automation industry represents $17 billion market opportunity which is expected to grow at 16% CAGR until 2024, reaching a $30 billion level. UiPath management considers that the total addressable market is much larger with $60 billion opportunity.\nSource: UiPath\nThe use of UiPath services attracts businesses to increase their spent on the platform as case studies indicate that companies start from minimal budgets and increase their expenses in 1-2 year period. A global pharmaceutical company spent $100K in Q1 2020 while the number increased 32x in Q4 2021. A Canadian public sector agency spent $30K in FY 2020, while its expenses increased by 69x in Q4 2021.\nSource: UiPath\nNielsen (NLSN) is one of UiPath's consumers. The company provides information, data and market measurement services in more than 100 countries. The company needs to collect and analyze huge amount of data in a short period of time to stay competitive in its market. The company has already deployed UiPath RPA solutions in more than 40 countries and has saved approximately 350,000 working hours during the last 18 months. Nielsen expects to cut more than 500,000 working hours per year using UiPath services. The VP of global automation and head of Center of Excellence Oleg Royz expressed his opinion about UiPath RPA solutions.\n\n In the past, people didn’t realize that they were like the glue, managing all of these processes, and we’re changing that narrative. We tell them, don’t be the glue; be the value, and let the robots be the glue that connects the dots. So when you come to work, data is extracted and ready for you to make your analysis and provide your insights.\n\nGlobal audit firm PwC also uses UiPath platform which helped the company to automate more than 200 operations. The company has already deployed 40K robots and saved more than 5 million working hours. Kevin Kroen - Partner, Intelligent Automation and Digital Upskilling Leader of PwC US shared his insights about the services of the company.\n\n In our first year of using UiPath’s platform, we automated about five million hours of non-value-added work. We strongly believe that with the right approach RPA can transform any organization.\n\nUiPath services satisfy the majority of users as the platform has 4.5 rating out of 5 on gartner.com. The score is based on 1,700+ reviews. 98% of reviewers ranked the business 5 or 4, while none of them ranked 1 or 2. Users give quite high rating for product capabilities and for service support. On g2.com the company has 4.6 rating out of 5. The rating is based on 5,000+ reviews as more than 99% of reviewers ranked 5 or 4. The high satisfaction of consumers help the company to increase revenues from large enterprises as the number of consumers with $100K ARR increased from 899 to 1,363 YoY. At the same time the number of consumers with $1 million+ ARR increased from 74 to 135 YoY. The total number of consumers increased from 7,830 to 9,630.\nSource: UiPath\nAs a result the company achieved 62% ARR CAGR in recent 2-year period while the revenue recorded 65% CAGR.\nProfitability\nThe company generates quite high gross profit margin which exceeded 80% level during the last 5 quarters. The EBITDA margin is currently better than in 2019 but it is in deep negative territory recording -52.2% result. Meanwhile the management was able to improve the operating cash flow level which is near 0% level.\nSource: Author's Model, data from finbox.com\nThe negative EBITDA margin is attributed to substantial expense on selling and marketing. In 2019 the management spent more than 140% of revenues on S&M activity while the number declined to 76.8% by Q3 2021. UiPath business model doesn't require too much marketing expense in long-term horizon thus we think that the margin will improve substantially in upcoming years. At the same time the management spends 30% of revenues on R&D activities which is intended to offer advanced solutions to consumers.\nSource: Author's Model, data from finbox.com\nValuation\nConsidering historic valuation of the stock since its IPO, we see the multiples are gradually declining. Currently the P/S TTM multiple is at 28.8 level, while since IPO average is 42.2. Price to Gross Profit ratio is at 35.2 level while the average is 50.8.\nSource: Author's Model, data from finbox.com\nTo calculate the relative value of the stock we have collected data of top 100 tech stocks and built a regression model. We have regressed P/S FWD multiples against forecasted 3-year revenue CAGRs and TTM gross margins. As a result we have a model with R square of 69.3% and F stat of 108.5. The outputs generated by the software yield implied P/S FWD ratio of 32.1 which indicates stock value of $54. So the growth pace and the TTM profitability indicate undervaluation.\nSource: Author's Model, data from finbox.com\nTo calculate the intrinsic value of the stock we have built a DCF model. First we calculate the WACC. To calculate beta coefficient we have regressed since IPO weekly price returns against S&P 500 (SPY) returns during the same period. As a result we have a beta of 1.7.\nSource: Author's Model\nFor equity risk premium we have used 4.53% level and for risk-free rate we have used 2% input. As a result we have a WACC of 9.67%.\nSource: Author's Model\nFor the upcoming decade we anticipate revenue CAGR of 35% while our 2031 EBITDA estimate is 35%. In our model we anticipate gradual improvement to 2031 EBITDA target.\nSource: Author's Model\nAs a result our model yields intrinsic value of $62.3 which is 40% higher than the current stock price.\nSource: Author's Model\nFor the upcoming decade we anticipate 50% share count dilution and for 2031 we anticipate Price to FCF ratio of 35. The estimates yield 15% annual return opportunity during the upcoming decade.\nSource: Author's Model\nWe have also conducted scenario analysis to asses expected returns based on different EBITDA and revenue growth estimates. As a result our model indicates that we can expect double digit returns even if the company achieves 30% revenue CAGR.\nSource: Author's Model\nSo our valuation models indicate that the stock value is quite attractive at current levels.\nSource: Author's Model\nConclusion\nUiPath's business has substantial growth opportunity. Consumers can increase the efficiency of their working processes substantially using company services. The company has quite a large total addressable market where it can capture significant market share given its competitive advantages. According to researches, UiPath has leading position in its industry. Consumers are highly satisfied from the services of the company. Our valuation models indicate that the growth potential of the business is not reflected in the stock price and investors can anticipate strong double-digit returns in upcoming decade. Thus we assign Strong Buy rating to the stock.\nThis article was written by Growth Analyst.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PATH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4413,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["AONE.U"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":58,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/696531355"}
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