Chororo
2021-12-29
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Lucid Stock: Down 33% From Its November High, It's Time To Turn Bullish<blockquote>Lucid 股票：较 11 月高点下跌 33%，是时候转为看涨了</blockquote>
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We also discussed our thesis in detail, so readers can refer to it if they need a primer.</p><p><blockquote>自我们上一篇文章（中性评级）发表以来，Lucid Group (LCID) 的股价已下跌 26%，因为我们鼓励投资者保持耐心。我们还详细讨论了我们的论文，所以读者如果需要入门可以参考一下。</blockquote></p><p>Its stock was battered as it suffered the double whammy of growth stock retracement and the recent SEC scrutiny over its SPAC combination.</p><p><blockquote>其股票遭受了成长型股票回调和美国证券交易委员会最近对其特殊目的收购公司合并的审查的双重打击，因此遭受了重创。</blockquote></p><p>While the stock is still priced at a premium, we believe that it seems more reasonably valued now. Moreover, being priced at a premium has not deterred institutional investors from fully snapping up its convertible notes offering, plus its option.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该股定价仍存在溢价，但我们认为它现在的估值似乎更加合理。此外，定价溢价并没有阻止机构投资者完全抢购其可转换票据及其期权。</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, we believe it's apt to discuss why we have revised our rating to Buy.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为讨论为什么我们将评级修改为买入是合适的。</blockquote></p><p>Why We Are Turning Bullish on LCID Now</p><p><blockquote>为什么我们现在看好 LCID</blockquote></p><p>Lucid Group estimates that it will produce 500K vehicles by 2030. However, it has planned for only 20K and 50K units by 2022 and 2023, respectively. Therefore, we believe that LCID's long-term production forecast is highly speculative at best for now. Nevertheless, readers should be clear that it doesn't mean that Lucid cannot meet its target. The company has clearly demonstrated the engineering expertise to produce a world-class luxury EV. Having its Air Dream winning the 2022 MotorTrend Car of the Year was just the start of its objective towards the $25K mass-market EV. Being the newly crowned "range king" is certainly no mean feat. It's a hallmark of world-class engineering talent that we should give sufficient due credit to CEO Peter Rawlinson & Co. It shows the clear supremacy of Lucid's amazing powertrain efficiency. While its base model Air Pure is priced at a significant premium (from $77.4K), we should expect more iterations moving forward. Rawlinson's strategy of "moving down the chain" is a well-proven model that Tesla (TSLA) has perfected. While one can argue that Lucid is no Tesla (at least not yet), we also can argue that the strategy can work. Moreover, Lucid's vertically-integrated stack gives the company the critical advantage to work wonders with its powertrain efficiency. Rawlinson emphasized (edited):</p><p><blockquote>Lucid Group 估计到 2030 年将生产 50 万辆汽车。然而，它计划到2022年和2023年分别只生产2万辆和5万辆。因此，我们认为LCID的长期产量预测目前充其量是高度投机性的。尽管如此，读者应该清楚，这并不意味着Lucid无法实现其目标。该公司清楚地展示了生产世界级豪华电动汽车的工程专业知识。让 Air Dream 赢得 2022 年 MotorTrend 年度汽车奖只是其迈向 2.5 万美元大众市场电动汽车目标的开始。成为新加冕的“范围之王”当然不是一个简单的壮举。这是世界级工程人才的标志，我们应该给予首席执行官彼得·罗林森公司足够的荣誉。它显示了 Lucid 惊人的动力系统效率的明显优势。虽然其基本型号 Air Pure 的定价要高得多（7.74 万美元起），但我们应该期待未来会有更多迭代。罗林森的“向下移动”策略是特斯拉（TSLA）完善的一个久经考验的模型。虽然有人可以说Lucid不是特斯拉（至少现在还不是），但我们也可以说这个策略是可行的。此外，Lucid 的垂直集成堆栈为该公司提供了在动力总成效率方面创造奇迹的关键优势。罗林森强调（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p>Lexus did it. Tesla did it. Great brands have started with a high-end product and gradually made that more accessible.<i>Step one of that plan is we use efficiency to create long-range</i>. Then, we can then produce a product like Air Pure. We still need to get the cost of the battery pack and battery cells down through mass industrialization through the economy of scale. Because the battery pack is the most expensive single component in an electric car, it means that we can go for a competitive range — say, at 400 miles in the future — with a smaller pack, which is going to cost us less. In the future, I could buy cells at, say, under $100 a kilowatt-hour, maybe $90. I could then buy the cells for that pack for $2,300. I could build a pack for under $3,000. And then I could have a $25,000 car. That's the future. (Insider)Nevertheless,BloombergNEF estimates that we will observe a slight increase in lithium-ion battery pack cost to $135 in 2022, up from $132 this year. It also will mark the first time we see a nominal increase in battery pack prices in the last ten years due to the spike in raw material costs. Notably, it expects prices to be half of what we observe today by 2030. Hence, we trust that Rawlinson will get that mass-market car out in due course as it ramps production.</p><p><blockquote>雷克萨斯做到了。特斯拉做到了。伟大的品牌从高端产品开始，并逐渐使其更容易获得。<i>该计划第一步是利用效率创造长期</i>然后，我们就可以生产出像Air Pure这样的产品。我们仍然需要通过规模经济，通过大规模产业化来降低电池组和电芯的成本。由于电池组是电动汽车中最昂贵的单个组件，这意味着我们可以使用较小的电池组来实现有竞争力的续航里程（例如，未来 400 英里），这将使我们花费更低。未来，我可以以每千瓦时 100 美元以下的价格购买电池，也许是 90 美元。然后我可以花2300美元买那个包的电池。我可以花不到3000美元做一个包。然后我就可以拥有一辆价值 25,000 美元的汽车。这就是未来。（内部人士）尽管如此，彭博新能源财经估计，2022 年锂离子电池组成本将从今年的 132 美元小幅上涨至 135 美元。这也将标志着由于原材料成本飙升，我们在过去十年中首次看到电池组价格名义上涨。值得注意的是，它预计到 2030 年价格将是我们今天观察到的一半。因此，我们相信罗林森将在适当的时候推出大众市场汽车，因为它的产量增加。</blockquote></p><p><b>Can Lucid Ramp Production Successfully?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid能成功提高产量吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Let's put it this way. We think Lucid still needs to prove its production ramp. Getting to 50K by 2023 will be a good start. It has proven its technology, but it still needs to prove its manufacturing expertise. But, Lucid has got all the ingredients to be successful. It's riding the green tidal wave of mainstream EV adoption in the US from 2022. The regulatory climate is positive toward EVs. General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) will ramp their EV deliveries from 2022. Rivian (RIVN) is ramping production of their amazing EV trucks. Tesla is estimated to reach a 2M production run rate next year. Some investors believe that more intense competition will crush new upstarts like Lucid, which has not proven their volume production expertise. The concerns are valid. Manufacturing is a different ball game. And we're not saying that Lucid will not meet production hurdles along the way. Investors should assume that the company will suffer from hiccups and bottlenecks. But, importantly, the competitive landscape is actually conducive for Lucid and not prohibitive. The US EV penetration rate is just under 3%. Furthermore, according to IHS Markit, the US EV share of new car sales is estimated to reach 5% in 2022. The estimates also are in line with Bloomberg NEF's 5.2% penetration rate. The EV penetration rates in the No. 1 market (China) and the No. 2 market (Europe) are already in double digits. Therefore, the US EV market is really still in its infancy. Yes, there will be competition. But to say that the competition will stifle Lucid, which has proven its automobile technology is not credible, we think. The US EV market is just getting started, and Lucid can certainly ride the secular trend well if it can ramp production successfully.</p><p><blockquote>这么说吧。我们认为 Lucid 仍需证明其产量增长。到2023年达到5万将是一个好的开始。它已经证明了自己的技术，但仍需要证明自己的制造专业知识。但是，Lucid拥有成功的所有要素。从 2022 年起，它将乘着美国主流电动汽车采用的绿色浪潮。监管环境对电动汽车有利。通用汽车 (GM) 和福特 (F) 将从 2022 年开始增加电动汽车的交付量。Rivian (RIVN) 正在加大其令人惊叹的电动卡车的生产。预计特斯拉明年的产量将达到 200 万台。一些投资者认为，更激烈的竞争将压垮像 Lucid 这样的新贵，该公司尚未证明其批量生产专业知识。这些担忧是合理的。制造业是一个不同的球类运动。我们并不是说 Lucid 不会遇到生产障碍。投资者应该假设该公司将遭受打嗝和瓶颈。但是，重要的是，竞争格局实际上有利于清醒，而不是禁止。美国电动汽车普及率略低于3%。此外，根据IHS Markit的数据，预计2022年美国电动汽车在新车销量中的份额将达到5%。这些估计也与彭博 NEF 5.2% 的渗透率一致。第一大市场（中国）和第二大市场（欧洲）的电动汽车渗透率已经达到两位数。因此，美国电动汽车市场确实仍处于起步阶段。是的，会有竞争。但要说竞争会扼杀 Lucid，我们认为，Lucid 已经证明其汽车技术不可信。美国电动汽车市场才刚刚起步，如果Lucid能够成功提高产量，它肯定可以很好地驾驭长期趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Notably, institutional investors are very confident that Lucid can do it. The company emphasized recently that its convertible notes offering, including its option, has been fully subscribed. Therefore, the company has managed to raise $1.99B in net proceeds, which will be used to ramp production, among other uses. It's important to note that its conversion price of $54.78 per share is 41.7% above its last closing price, which must be converted by December 2026. Therefore, we believe it's a clear vote of confidence the institutional community has given Lucid. The company was debt free coming into the transaction, with a cash and short-term investments balance of $4.8B. It has given Lucid tremendous financial flexibility to price its offering to benefit shareholders and the company at the same time. Investors should note that "the notes will accrue interest at a rate of 1.25% per annum." Therefore, it's a great and affordable offering, we think. CFO Sherry House had also emphasized the company's rock-solid balance sheet in its recent earnings. It would help the company get the affordable funding it needs to ramp CapEx for production, as she added (edited):</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，机构投资者对Lucid能够做到这一点非常有信心。该公司最近强调，其可转换票据发行（包括其期权）已全部认购。因此，该公司成功筹集了 1.99B 美元的净收益，这笔钱将用于提高产量等用途。值得注意的是，其每股 54.78 美元的转换价比其最后收盘价高出 41.7%，该收盘价必须在 2026 年 12 月之前转换。因此，我们相信这是机构界对 Lucid 的明确信任投票。该公司在交易中没有债务，现金和短期投资余额为$4.8B。它为 Lucid 提供了巨大的财务灵活性，可以为其发行定价，同时使股东和公司受益。投资者应注意，“票据将按年利率 1.25% 计息。”因此，我们认为这是一个伟大且实惠的产品。首席财务官 Sherry House 也在最近的财报中强调了该公司坚如磐石的资产负债表。她补充道（编辑），这将有助于该公司获得增加生产资本支出所需的负担得起的资金：</blockquote></p><p>So, we're sitting in a terrific place today with $4.8 billion as of September 30, that's going to get us well through 2022. You're going to see a large capex increase happening next year. Actually, multiples ofcapexare going to be deployed next year vs. this year. So we're already doing that acceleration.<i>We do think that there is increasing availability of capital to us today from a lot of different sources</i>. You'll note that we still haven't even taken debt on.<i>So we have the opportunity to provide terrific loan to value there if we chose to take on debt</i>. So we're feeling really good about what we could do, and we feel like we are increasing the company's ability to deploy capital efficiently and quickly. (Lucid's FQ3'21 earnings call)<b>Why Buy LCID Stock at Such a High Premium?</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，截至 9 月 30 日，我们今天处于一个非常好的位置，拥有 48 亿美元，这将使我们顺利度过 2022 年。明年你将会看到资本支出大幅增加。事实上，与今年相比，明年将部署数倍的资本。所以我们已经在做加速了。<i>我们确实认为，今天我们从许多不同来源获得的资本越来越多</i>你会注意到，我们甚至还没有负债。<i>因此，如果我们选择承担债务，我们有机会提供极好的贷款来增值</i>.因此，我们对自己能做的事情感到非常满意，我们觉得我们正在提高公司高效、快速部署资本的能力。（Lucid 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）<b>为什么要以如此高的溢价购买LCID股票？</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba3124f31c4a9080cab2f9604eef1e35\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Lucid stock & peers EV/FY23 Revenue comps. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Lucid 股票和同行电动汽车/2023财年收入比较。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Lucid stock's valuation (EV/FY23 Revenue) has dropped significantly from the previous time we covered it. Although still ahead of Tesla stock's valuation, it has dropped back broadly in line with its pure-play peers. Also, it's no longer trading at 18x FY23 revenue, as we noted previously. Moreover, readers should note that Lucid has committed to a run rate of just 50K vehicles by 2023. Therefore, even if we consider its FY23 revenue multiple as a basis, it might even understate its medium-term run rate when it successfully ramps.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid 股票的估值（电动汽车/2023财年收入）与我们上次报道时相比大幅下降。尽管仍领先于特斯拉股票的估值，但其回落幅度与纯游戏同行大致一致。此外，正如我们之前指出的，它的交易价格不再是2023财年收入的 18 倍。此外，读者应该注意，Lucid 已承诺到 2023 年车辆的运行率仅为 5 万辆。因此，即使我们以其2023财年收入倍数为基础，当它成功爬坡时，它甚至可能低估其中期运行率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Moreover, the "green tidal wave" is expected to lift the momentum of EV stocks in the US market from 2022, given its massive opportunity. Therefore, we think valuations will continue to stay high for the pure-play EV makers, who don't have to transit their ICE production lines. Valuations like this are "perfect" to issue convertible notes or equity offerings.</p><p><blockquote>此外，鉴于其巨大的机遇，“绿色浪潮”预计将从2022年起提振美国市场电动汽车股票的势头。因此，我们认为纯电动汽车制造商的估值将继续保持在高位，因为他们不必转移内燃机生产线。这样的估值对于发行可转换票据或股票发行来说是“完美的”。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America also highlighted that an elevated valuation environment creates a flywheel effect on the pure-play makers' stock prices. It helps them to fund growth cheaply. And in turn, it can help drive up the stock price as they realize their production growth. BofA added (edited):</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还强调，估值环境升高会对纯粹游戏制造商的股价产生飞轮效应。这有助于他们以低成本为增长提供资金。反过来，当他们实现产量增长时，它可以帮助推高股价。美国银行补充道（已编辑）：</blockquote></p><p>Capital for EV OEMs is widely available and cheap in current market conditions. Therefore, momentum/support for many of the stocks, especially Tesla and Lucid, will persist. A 10% dilutive equity raise for Lucid, meanwhile, could fund over three incremental plants and more than 750,000 incremental units of capacity, making the company a relatively large global luxury automaker. (Benzinga)Hence, we believe Lucid investors should not be worried about its premium valuation. Instead, Lucid has capitalized on its premium valuation with its highly successful notes offering. It proves that the institutional support for Lucid's business model is very robust, and that's critical.</p><p><blockquote>在当前的市场条件下，电动汽车原始设备制造商的资金随处可见且便宜。因此，对许多股票，尤其是特斯拉和Lucid的动力/支撑将持续存在。与此同时，Lucid 稀释性 10% 的股权融资可以为三个以上的增量工厂和超过 750,000 台增量产能提供资金，使该公司成为相对大型的全球豪华汽车制造商。（Benzinga）因此，我们认为清醒的投资者不应担心其溢价估值。相反，Lucid 通过非常成功的票据发行利用了其溢价估值。这证明了Lucid商业模式的机构支持非常强大，这一点至关重要。</blockquote></p><p>Nevertheless, the company still needs to prove its production ramp capability. However, we think its valuation, coupled with its success in acquiring cheap funding, makes its current price a Buy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司仍需证明其产量提升能力。然而，我们认为其估值，加上其成功获得廉价资金，使其目前的价格值得买入。</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, we revise our rating on LCID stock to Buy for speculative investors only.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们修改了对 LCID 股票的评级，仅供投机投资者买入。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid Stock: Down 33% From Its November High, It's Time To Turn Bullish<blockquote>Lucid 股票：较 11 月高点下跌 33%，是时候转为看涨了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid Stock: Down 33% From Its November High, It's Time To Turn Bullish<blockquote>Lucid 股票：较 11 月高点下跌 33%，是时候转为看涨了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-29 16:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Lucid stock has dropped 33% from its November high.</li><li>The company recently completed a highly successful convertible notes offering, which was fully subscribed.</li><li>We discuss why we think it's time for EV investors to turn bullish on Lucid stock.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b06efeb97c339c447478d616e8e4db7\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Eugene Gologursky/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Lucid 股价已较 11 月高点下跌 33%。</li><li>该公司最近完成了一次非常成功的可转换票据发行，并获得了全部认购。</li><li>我们讨论为什么我们认为电动汽车投资者是时候看好 Lucid 股票了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>尤金·戈洛古尔斯基/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Lucid Group(LCID) stock has fallen 26% since our previous article (Neutral rating) was published as we encouraged investors to be patient. We also discussed our thesis in detail, so readers can refer to it if they need a primer.</p><p><blockquote>自我们上一篇文章（中性评级）发表以来，Lucid Group (LCID) 的股价已下跌 26%，因为我们鼓励投资者保持耐心。我们还详细讨论了我们的论文，所以读者如果需要入门可以参考一下。</blockquote></p><p>Its stock was battered as it suffered the double whammy of growth stock retracement and the recent SEC scrutiny over its SPAC combination.</p><p><blockquote>其股票遭受了成长型股票回调和美国证券交易委员会最近对其特殊目的收购公司合并的审查的双重打击，因此遭受了重创。</blockquote></p><p>While the stock is still priced at a premium, we believe that it seems more reasonably valued now. Moreover, being priced at a premium has not deterred institutional investors from fully snapping up its convertible notes offering, plus its option.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该股定价仍存在溢价，但我们认为它现在的估值似乎更加合理。此外，定价溢价并没有阻止机构投资者完全抢购其可转换票据及其期权。</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, we believe it's apt to discuss why we have revised our rating to Buy.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为讨论为什么我们将评级修改为买入是合适的。</blockquote></p><p>Why We Are Turning Bullish on LCID Now</p><p><blockquote>为什么我们现在看好 LCID</blockquote></p><p>Lucid Group estimates that it will produce 500K vehicles by 2030. However, it has planned for only 20K and 50K units by 2022 and 2023, respectively. Therefore, we believe that LCID's long-term production forecast is highly speculative at best for now. Nevertheless, readers should be clear that it doesn't mean that Lucid cannot meet its target. The company has clearly demonstrated the engineering expertise to produce a world-class luxury EV. Having its Air Dream winning the 2022 MotorTrend Car of the Year was just the start of its objective towards the $25K mass-market EV. Being the newly crowned "range king" is certainly no mean feat. It's a hallmark of world-class engineering talent that we should give sufficient due credit to CEO Peter Rawlinson & Co. It shows the clear supremacy of Lucid's amazing powertrain efficiency. While its base model Air Pure is priced at a significant premium (from $77.4K), we should expect more iterations moving forward. Rawlinson's strategy of "moving down the chain" is a well-proven model that Tesla (TSLA) has perfected. While one can argue that Lucid is no Tesla (at least not yet), we also can argue that the strategy can work. Moreover, Lucid's vertically-integrated stack gives the company the critical advantage to work wonders with its powertrain efficiency. Rawlinson emphasized (edited):</p><p><blockquote>Lucid Group 估计到 2030 年将生产 50 万辆汽车。然而，它计划到2022年和2023年分别只生产2万辆和5万辆。因此，我们认为LCID的长期产量预测目前充其量是高度投机性的。尽管如此，读者应该清楚，这并不意味着Lucid无法实现其目标。该公司清楚地展示了生产世界级豪华电动汽车的工程专业知识。让 Air Dream 赢得 2022 年 MotorTrend 年度汽车奖只是其迈向 2.5 万美元大众市场电动汽车目标的开始。成为新加冕的“范围之王”当然不是一个简单的壮举。这是世界级工程人才的标志，我们应该给予首席执行官彼得·罗林森公司足够的荣誉。它显示了 Lucid 惊人的动力系统效率的明显优势。虽然其基本型号 Air Pure 的定价要高得多（7.74 万美元起），但我们应该期待未来会有更多迭代。罗林森的“向下移动”策略是特斯拉（TSLA）完善的一个久经考验的模型。虽然有人可以说Lucid不是特斯拉（至少现在还不是），但我们也可以说这个策略是可行的。此外，Lucid 的垂直集成堆栈为该公司提供了在动力总成效率方面创造奇迹的关键优势。罗林森强调（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p>Lexus did it. Tesla did it. Great brands have started with a high-end product and gradually made that more accessible.<i>Step one of that plan is we use efficiency to create long-range</i>. Then, we can then produce a product like Air Pure. We still need to get the cost of the battery pack and battery cells down through mass industrialization through the economy of scale. Because the battery pack is the most expensive single component in an electric car, it means that we can go for a competitive range — say, at 400 miles in the future — with a smaller pack, which is going to cost us less. In the future, I could buy cells at, say, under $100 a kilowatt-hour, maybe $90. I could then buy the cells for that pack for $2,300. I could build a pack for under $3,000. And then I could have a $25,000 car. That's the future. (Insider)Nevertheless,BloombergNEF estimates that we will observe a slight increase in lithium-ion battery pack cost to $135 in 2022, up from $132 this year. It also will mark the first time we see a nominal increase in battery pack prices in the last ten years due to the spike in raw material costs. Notably, it expects prices to be half of what we observe today by 2030. Hence, we trust that Rawlinson will get that mass-market car out in due course as it ramps production.</p><p><blockquote>雷克萨斯做到了。特斯拉做到了。伟大的品牌从高端产品开始，并逐渐使其更容易获得。<i>该计划第一步是利用效率创造长期</i>然后，我们就可以生产出像Air Pure这样的产品。我们仍然需要通过规模经济，通过大规模产业化来降低电池组和电芯的成本。由于电池组是电动汽车中最昂贵的单个组件，这意味着我们可以使用较小的电池组来实现有竞争力的续航里程（例如，未来 400 英里），这将使我们花费更低。未来，我可以以每千瓦时 100 美元以下的价格购买电池，也许是 90 美元。然后我可以花2300美元买那个包的电池。我可以花不到3000美元做一个包。然后我就可以拥有一辆价值 25,000 美元的汽车。这就是未来。（内部人士）尽管如此，彭博新能源财经估计，2022 年锂离子电池组成本将从今年的 132 美元小幅上涨至 135 美元。这也将标志着由于原材料成本飙升，我们在过去十年中首次看到电池组价格名义上涨。值得注意的是，它预计到 2030 年价格将是我们今天观察到的一半。因此，我们相信罗林森将在适当的时候推出大众市场汽车，因为它的产量增加。</blockquote></p><p><b>Can Lucid Ramp Production Successfully?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid能成功提高产量吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Let's put it this way. We think Lucid still needs to prove its production ramp. Getting to 50K by 2023 will be a good start. It has proven its technology, but it still needs to prove its manufacturing expertise. But, Lucid has got all the ingredients to be successful. It's riding the green tidal wave of mainstream EV adoption in the US from 2022. The regulatory climate is positive toward EVs. General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) will ramp their EV deliveries from 2022. Rivian (RIVN) is ramping production of their amazing EV trucks. Tesla is estimated to reach a 2M production run rate next year. Some investors believe that more intense competition will crush new upstarts like Lucid, which has not proven their volume production expertise. The concerns are valid. Manufacturing is a different ball game. And we're not saying that Lucid will not meet production hurdles along the way. Investors should assume that the company will suffer from hiccups and bottlenecks. But, importantly, the competitive landscape is actually conducive for Lucid and not prohibitive. The US EV penetration rate is just under 3%. Furthermore, according to IHS Markit, the US EV share of new car sales is estimated to reach 5% in 2022. The estimates also are in line with Bloomberg NEF's 5.2% penetration rate. The EV penetration rates in the No. 1 market (China) and the No. 2 market (Europe) are already in double digits. Therefore, the US EV market is really still in its infancy. Yes, there will be competition. But to say that the competition will stifle Lucid, which has proven its automobile technology is not credible, we think. The US EV market is just getting started, and Lucid can certainly ride the secular trend well if it can ramp production successfully.</p><p><blockquote>这么说吧。我们认为 Lucid 仍需证明其产量增长。到2023年达到5万将是一个好的开始。它已经证明了自己的技术，但仍需要证明自己的制造专业知识。但是，Lucid拥有成功的所有要素。从 2022 年起，它将乘着美国主流电动汽车采用的绿色浪潮。监管环境对电动汽车有利。通用汽车 (GM) 和福特 (F) 将从 2022 年开始增加电动汽车的交付量。Rivian (RIVN) 正在加大其令人惊叹的电动卡车的生产。预计特斯拉明年的产量将达到 200 万台。一些投资者认为，更激烈的竞争将压垮像 Lucid 这样的新贵，该公司尚未证明其批量生产专业知识。这些担忧是合理的。制造业是一个不同的球类运动。我们并不是说 Lucid 不会遇到生产障碍。投资者应该假设该公司将遭受打嗝和瓶颈。但是，重要的是，竞争格局实际上有利于清醒，而不是禁止。美国电动汽车普及率略低于3%。此外，根据IHS Markit的数据，预计2022年美国电动汽车在新车销量中的份额将达到5%。这些估计也与彭博 NEF 5.2% 的渗透率一致。第一大市场（中国）和第二大市场（欧洲）的电动汽车渗透率已经达到两位数。因此，美国电动汽车市场确实仍处于起步阶段。是的，会有竞争。但要说竞争会扼杀 Lucid，我们认为，Lucid 已经证明其汽车技术不可信。美国电动汽车市场才刚刚起步，如果Lucid能够成功提高产量，它肯定可以很好地驾驭长期趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Notably, institutional investors are very confident that Lucid can do it. The company emphasized recently that its convertible notes offering, including its option, has been fully subscribed. Therefore, the company has managed to raise $1.99B in net proceeds, which will be used to ramp production, among other uses. It's important to note that its conversion price of $54.78 per share is 41.7% above its last closing price, which must be converted by December 2026. Therefore, we believe it's a clear vote of confidence the institutional community has given Lucid. The company was debt free coming into the transaction, with a cash and short-term investments balance of $4.8B. It has given Lucid tremendous financial flexibility to price its offering to benefit shareholders and the company at the same time. Investors should note that "the notes will accrue interest at a rate of 1.25% per annum." Therefore, it's a great and affordable offering, we think. CFO Sherry House had also emphasized the company's rock-solid balance sheet in its recent earnings. It would help the company get the affordable funding it needs to ramp CapEx for production, as she added (edited):</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，机构投资者对Lucid能够做到这一点非常有信心。该公司最近强调，其可转换票据发行（包括其期权）已全部认购。因此，该公司成功筹集了 1.99B 美元的净收益，这笔钱将用于提高产量等用途。值得注意的是，其每股 54.78 美元的转换价比其最后收盘价高出 41.7%，该收盘价必须在 2026 年 12 月之前转换。因此，我们相信这是机构界对 Lucid 的明确信任投票。该公司在交易中没有债务，现金和短期投资余额为$4.8B。它为 Lucid 提供了巨大的财务灵活性，可以为其发行定价，同时使股东和公司受益。投资者应注意，“票据将按年利率 1.25% 计息。”因此，我们认为这是一个伟大且实惠的产品。首席财务官 Sherry House 也在最近的财报中强调了该公司坚如磐石的资产负债表。她补充道（编辑），这将有助于该公司获得增加生产资本支出所需的负担得起的资金：</blockquote></p><p>So, we're sitting in a terrific place today with $4.8 billion as of September 30, that's going to get us well through 2022. You're going to see a large capex increase happening next year. Actually, multiples ofcapexare going to be deployed next year vs. this year. So we're already doing that acceleration.<i>We do think that there is increasing availability of capital to us today from a lot of different sources</i>. You'll note that we still haven't even taken debt on.<i>So we have the opportunity to provide terrific loan to value there if we chose to take on debt</i>. So we're feeling really good about what we could do, and we feel like we are increasing the company's ability to deploy capital efficiently and quickly. (Lucid's FQ3'21 earnings call)<b>Why Buy LCID Stock at Such a High Premium?</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，截至 9 月 30 日，我们今天处于一个非常好的位置，拥有 48 亿美元，这将使我们顺利度过 2022 年。明年你将会看到资本支出大幅增加。事实上，与今年相比，明年将部署数倍的资本。所以我们已经在做加速了。<i>我们确实认为，今天我们从许多不同来源获得的资本越来越多</i>你会注意到，我们甚至还没有负债。<i>因此，如果我们选择承担债务，我们有机会提供极好的贷款来增值</i>.因此，我们对自己能做的事情感到非常满意，我们觉得我们正在提高公司高效、快速部署资本的能力。（Lucid 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）<b>为什么要以如此高的溢价购买LCID股票？</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba3124f31c4a9080cab2f9604eef1e35\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Lucid stock & peers EV/FY23 Revenue comps. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Lucid 股票和同行电动汽车/2023财年收入比较。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Lucid stock's valuation (EV/FY23 Revenue) has dropped significantly from the previous time we covered it. Although still ahead of Tesla stock's valuation, it has dropped back broadly in line with its pure-play peers. Also, it's no longer trading at 18x FY23 revenue, as we noted previously. Moreover, readers should note that Lucid has committed to a run rate of just 50K vehicles by 2023. Therefore, even if we consider its FY23 revenue multiple as a basis, it might even understate its medium-term run rate when it successfully ramps.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid 股票的估值（电动汽车/2023财年收入）与我们上次报道时相比大幅下降。尽管仍领先于特斯拉股票的估值，但其回落幅度与纯游戏同行大致一致。此外，正如我们之前指出的，它的交易价格不再是2023财年收入的 18 倍。此外，读者应该注意，Lucid 已承诺到 2023 年车辆的运行率仅为 5 万辆。因此，即使我们以其2023财年收入倍数为基础，当它成功爬坡时，它甚至可能低估其中期运行率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Moreover, the "green tidal wave" is expected to lift the momentum of EV stocks in the US market from 2022, given its massive opportunity. Therefore, we think valuations will continue to stay high for the pure-play EV makers, who don't have to transit their ICE production lines. Valuations like this are "perfect" to issue convertible notes or equity offerings.</p><p><blockquote>此外，鉴于其巨大的机遇，“绿色浪潮”预计将从2022年起提振美国市场电动汽车股票的势头。因此，我们认为纯电动汽车制造商的估值将继续保持在高位，因为他们不必转移内燃机生产线。这样的估值对于发行可转换票据或股票发行来说是“完美的”。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America also highlighted that an elevated valuation environment creates a flywheel effect on the pure-play makers' stock prices. It helps them to fund growth cheaply. And in turn, it can help drive up the stock price as they realize their production growth. BofA added (edited):</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还强调，估值环境升高会对纯粹游戏制造商的股价产生飞轮效应。这有助于他们以低成本为增长提供资金。反过来，当他们实现产量增长时，它可以帮助推高股价。美国银行补充道（已编辑）：</blockquote></p><p>Capital for EV OEMs is widely available and cheap in current market conditions. Therefore, momentum/support for many of the stocks, especially Tesla and Lucid, will persist. A 10% dilutive equity raise for Lucid, meanwhile, could fund over three incremental plants and more than 750,000 incremental units of capacity, making the company a relatively large global luxury automaker. (Benzinga)Hence, we believe Lucid investors should not be worried about its premium valuation. Instead, Lucid has capitalized on its premium valuation with its highly successful notes offering. It proves that the institutional support for Lucid's business model is very robust, and that's critical.</p><p><blockquote>在当前的市场条件下，电动汽车原始设备制造商的资金随处可见且便宜。因此，对许多股票，尤其是特斯拉和Lucid的动力/支撑将持续存在。与此同时，Lucid 稀释性 10% 的股权融资可以为三个以上的增量工厂和超过 750,000 台增量产能提供资金，使该公司成为相对大型的全球豪华汽车制造商。（Benzinga）因此，我们认为清醒的投资者不应担心其溢价估值。相反，Lucid 通过非常成功的票据发行利用了其溢价估值。这证明了Lucid商业模式的机构支持非常强大，这一点至关重要。</blockquote></p><p>Nevertheless, the company still needs to prove its production ramp capability. However, we think its valuation, coupled with its success in acquiring cheap funding, makes its current price a Buy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司仍需证明其产量提升能力。然而，我们认为其估值，加上其成功获得廉价资金，使其目前的价格值得买入。</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, we revise our rating on LCID stock to Buy for speculative investors only.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们修改了对 LCID 股票的评级，仅供投机投资者买入。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477067-lucid-stock-down-33-percent-from-its-november-high-its-time-to-turn-bullish\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477067-lucid-stock-down-33-percent-from-its-november-high-its-time-to-turn-bullish","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168845751","content_text":"SummaryLucid stock has dropped 33% from its November high.The company recently completed a highly successful convertible notes offering, which was fully subscribed.We discuss why we think it's time for EV investors to turn bullish on Lucid stock.Eugene Gologursky/Getty Images EntertainmentLucid Group(LCID) stock has fallen 26% since our previous article (Neutral rating) was published as we encouraged investors to be patient. We also discussed our thesis in detail, so readers can refer to it if they need a primer.Its stock was battered as it suffered the double whammy of growth stock retracement and the recent SEC scrutiny over its SPAC combination.While the stock is still priced at a premium, we believe that it seems more reasonably valued now. Moreover, being priced at a premium has not deterred institutional investors from fully snapping up its convertible notes offering, plus its option.Therefore, we believe it's apt to discuss why we have revised our rating to Buy.Why We Are Turning Bullish on LCID NowLucid Group estimates that it will produce 500K vehicles by 2030. However, it has planned for only 20K and 50K units by 2022 and 2023, respectively. Therefore, we believe that LCID's long-term production forecast is highly speculative at best for now. Nevertheless, readers should be clear that it doesn't mean that Lucid cannot meet its target. The company has clearly demonstrated the engineering expertise to produce a world-class luxury EV. Having its Air Dream winning the 2022 MotorTrend Car of the Year was just the start of its objective towards the $25K mass-market EV. Being the newly crowned \"range king\" is certainly no mean feat. It's a hallmark of world-class engineering talent that we should give sufficient due credit to CEO Peter Rawlinson & Co. It shows the clear supremacy of Lucid's amazing powertrain efficiency. While its base model Air Pure is priced at a significant premium (from $77.4K), we should expect more iterations moving forward. Rawlinson's strategy of \"moving down the chain\" is a well-proven model that Tesla (TSLA) has perfected. While one can argue that Lucid is no Tesla (at least not yet), we also can argue that the strategy can work. Moreover, Lucid's vertically-integrated stack gives the company the critical advantage to work wonders with its powertrain efficiency. Rawlinson emphasized (edited):Lexus did it. Tesla did it. Great brands have started with a high-end product and gradually made that more accessible.Step one of that plan is we use efficiency to create long-range. Then, we can then produce a product like Air Pure. We still need to get the cost of the battery pack and battery cells down through mass industrialization through the economy of scale. Because the battery pack is the most expensive single component in an electric car, it means that we can go for a competitive range — say, at 400 miles in the future — with a smaller pack, which is going to cost us less. In the future, I could buy cells at, say, under $100 a kilowatt-hour, maybe $90. I could then buy the cells for that pack for $2,300. I could build a pack for under $3,000. And then I could have a $25,000 car. That's the future. (Insider)Nevertheless,BloombergNEF estimates that we will observe a slight increase in lithium-ion battery pack cost to $135 in 2022, up from $132 this year. It also will mark the first time we see a nominal increase in battery pack prices in the last ten years due to the spike in raw material costs. Notably, it expects prices to be half of what we observe today by 2030. Hence, we trust that Rawlinson will get that mass-market car out in due course as it ramps production.Can Lucid Ramp Production Successfully?Let's put it this way. We think Lucid still needs to prove its production ramp. Getting to 50K by 2023 will be a good start. It has proven its technology, but it still needs to prove its manufacturing expertise. But, Lucid has got all the ingredients to be successful. It's riding the green tidal wave of mainstream EV adoption in the US from 2022. The regulatory climate is positive toward EVs. General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) will ramp their EV deliveries from 2022. Rivian (RIVN) is ramping production of their amazing EV trucks. Tesla is estimated to reach a 2M production run rate next year. Some investors believe that more intense competition will crush new upstarts like Lucid, which has not proven their volume production expertise. The concerns are valid. Manufacturing is a different ball game. And we're not saying that Lucid will not meet production hurdles along the way. Investors should assume that the company will suffer from hiccups and bottlenecks. But, importantly, the competitive landscape is actually conducive for Lucid and not prohibitive. The US EV penetration rate is just under 3%. Furthermore, according to IHS Markit, the US EV share of new car sales is estimated to reach 5% in 2022. The estimates also are in line with Bloomberg NEF's 5.2% penetration rate. The EV penetration rates in the No. 1 market (China) and the No. 2 market (Europe) are already in double digits. Therefore, the US EV market is really still in its infancy. Yes, there will be competition. But to say that the competition will stifle Lucid, which has proven its automobile technology is not credible, we think. The US EV market is just getting started, and Lucid can certainly ride the secular trend well if it can ramp production successfully.Notably, institutional investors are very confident that Lucid can do it. The company emphasized recently that its convertible notes offering, including its option, has been fully subscribed. Therefore, the company has managed to raise $1.99B in net proceeds, which will be used to ramp production, among other uses. It's important to note that its conversion price of $54.78 per share is 41.7% above its last closing price, which must be converted by December 2026. Therefore, we believe it's a clear vote of confidence the institutional community has given Lucid. The company was debt free coming into the transaction, with a cash and short-term investments balance of $4.8B. It has given Lucid tremendous financial flexibility to price its offering to benefit shareholders and the company at the same time. Investors should note that \"the notes will accrue interest at a rate of 1.25% per annum.\" Therefore, it's a great and affordable offering, we think. CFO Sherry House had also emphasized the company's rock-solid balance sheet in its recent earnings. It would help the company get the affordable funding it needs to ramp CapEx for production, as she added (edited):So, we're sitting in a terrific place today with $4.8 billion as of September 30, that's going to get us well through 2022. You're going to see a large capex increase happening next year. Actually, multiples ofcapexare going to be deployed next year vs. this year. So we're already doing that acceleration.We do think that there is increasing availability of capital to us today from a lot of different sources. You'll note that we still haven't even taken debt on.So we have the opportunity to provide terrific loan to value there if we chose to take on debt. So we're feeling really good about what we could do, and we feel like we are increasing the company's ability to deploy capital efficiently and quickly. (Lucid's FQ3'21 earnings call)Why Buy LCID Stock at Such a High Premium?Lucid stock & peers EV/FY23 Revenue comps. Data source: S&P Capital IQLucid stock's valuation (EV/FY23 Revenue) has dropped significantly from the previous time we covered it. Although still ahead of Tesla stock's valuation, it has dropped back broadly in line with its pure-play peers. Also, it's no longer trading at 18x FY23 revenue, as we noted previously. Moreover, readers should note that Lucid has committed to a run rate of just 50K vehicles by 2023. Therefore, even if we consider its FY23 revenue multiple as a basis, it might even understate its medium-term run rate when it successfully ramps.Moreover, the \"green tidal wave\" is expected to lift the momentum of EV stocks in the US market from 2022, given its massive opportunity. Therefore, we think valuations will continue to stay high for the pure-play EV makers, who don't have to transit their ICE production lines. Valuations like this are \"perfect\" to issue convertible notes or equity offerings.Bank of America also highlighted that an elevated valuation environment creates a flywheel effect on the pure-play makers' stock prices. It helps them to fund growth cheaply. And in turn, it can help drive up the stock price as they realize their production growth. BofA added (edited):Capital for EV OEMs is widely available and cheap in current market conditions. Therefore, momentum/support for many of the stocks, especially Tesla and Lucid, will persist. A 10% dilutive equity raise for Lucid, meanwhile, could fund over three incremental plants and more than 750,000 incremental units of capacity, making the company a relatively large global luxury automaker. (Benzinga)Hence, we believe Lucid investors should not be worried about its premium valuation. Instead, Lucid has capitalized on its premium valuation with its highly successful notes offering. It proves that the institutional support for Lucid's business model is very robust, and that's critical.Nevertheless, the company still needs to prove its production ramp capability. However, we think its valuation, coupled with its success in acquiring cheap funding, makes its current price a Buy.Therefore, we revise our rating on LCID stock to Buy for speculative investors only.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3625,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/696718630"}
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