littlekitten
2021-12-27
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DraftKings Stock: Down 60% From Its High, A Great Long-Term Buy Opportunity Has Emerged<blockquote>DraftKings 股票：较高点下跌 60%，长期买入机会出现</blockquote>
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(NASDAQ:DKNG) is one of the most contentious companies that we have covered. The short-sellers favorite has also been discussed in the media lately, as Jim Chanos called out DraftKings' business model as \"flawed.\" He also derided that DraftKings' sales and marketing spend was \"completely and totally insane.\"</p><p><blockquote>DraftKings Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：DKNG）是我们报道过的最具争议的公司之一。最近，媒体也讨论了卖空者的最爱，吉姆·查诺斯称 DraftKings 的商业模式“有缺陷”。他还嘲笑 DraftKings 的销售和营销支出“完全疯狂”。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, the short-sellers seem to have the momentum on their side as the price has declined 60% from its 2021 all-time high (ATH). In addition, S3 Partners have tracked consistent short-selling activity this year compared to the previous year. As of 15 December, DKNG's short percent of float reached 12.2%.</p><p><blockquote>目前，卖空者似乎势头强劲，价格已从 2021 年历史高点 (ATH) 下跌了 60%。此外，与上一年相比，S3 合作伙伴今年的卖空活动保持一致。截至12月15日，DKNG的空头流通量百分比达到12.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, DKNG stock has been holding at its crucial support level even as the short-selling activity intensified in recent weeks. We have been observing the price action closely and believe that if the current level continues to hold, the stock can consolidate moving forward. It would then allow the market makers to accumulate quietly before forcing the shorts to cover and subsequently drive up the stock's momentum.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，尽管最近几周卖空活动加剧，DKNG 股票仍保持在其关键支撑位。我们一直在密切关注价格走势，并相信如果当前水平继续保持，该股可以进一步盘整。然后，它将允许做市商在迫使空头回补之前安静地积累，随后推动股票的势头。</blockquote></p><p> The momentum in the market also seems to have swung back in favor of growth stocks lately. Coupled with the recent insider purchases, its price action, and the high short-selling activity, we believe it's time for long-term investors to consider adding exposure.</p><p><blockquote>最近市场的势头似乎也有利于成长型股票。再加上最近的内部购买、价格走势和高卖空活动，我们认为长期投资者是时候考虑增加敞口了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DKNG Stock Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DKNG 股票表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29e4677c0da747eebf5dea1fdb15ebbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DKNG stock YTD performance (as of 23 December' 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DKNG 股票年初至今表现（截至 21 年 12 月 23 日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f7e17e7edeef4d8c825a43d1a8d85b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DKNG stock performance from 24 April '20 (as of 23 December' 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DKNG股票截至20年4月24日（截至21年12月23日）的表现。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly glean that DraftKings stock has significantly underperformed this year, as it returned -36.8% YTD. Its keen rival Flutter Entertainment(OTCPK:PDYPY)also had an underwhelming year with a YTD return of 24.5%. However, considering its performance since it went public last year, the stock returned 52.1% or a CAGR of 28.7%. It outperformed Flutter, although it's underperforming the broad market currently. Some investors could have taken the opportunity to cash in, given the stock's magnificent gains since it went public.</p><p><blockquote>读者很快就会发现，DraftKings 股票今年的表现明显不佳，年初至今的回报率为 -36.8%。其劲敌 Flutter Entertainment (OTCPK: PDYPY) 今年也表现平平，年初至今的回报率为 24.5%。然而，考虑到其去年上市以来的表现，该股的回报率为52.1%，复合年增长率为28.7%。它的表现优于 Flutter，尽管目前它的表现逊于大盘。鉴于该股自上市以来涨幅巨大，一些投资者可能会借此机会套现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can DraftKings Ever Turn Profitable?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DraftKings能盈利吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/489ffa9da624d285ae2038c5655323ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DraftKings SG&A margins (LTM). Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DraftKings SG&A 保证金 (LTM)。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bears often lamented that CEO Jason Robins & Co. will \"never\" turn profitable as it continues to spend an astronomical amount on customer acquisitions costs (CAC). Readers can easily refer to the above chart where DraftKings' SG&A margin has consistently been over 100% of its revenue over the past year from a last-twelve-months (LTM) basis.</p><p><blockquote>看空者经常哀叹，首席执行官杰森·罗宾斯公司“永远”不会盈利，因为它继续在客户获取成本（CAC）上花费天文数字。读者可以轻松参考上图，其中 DraftKings 的 SG&A 利润率在过去一年中一直超过其过去 12 个月 (LTM) 收入的 100%。</blockquote></p><p> The bears are right to question whether its business model makes sense. It comes even as DraftKings' has significantly strengthened its leadership in the online sports betting (OSB) and the iGaming market. For readers who are new to this company, DraftKings' is the #2 player in the OSB market behind Flutter's FanDuel. In the iGaming market, it's the #2 player behind BetMGM (MGM) (OTCPK:GMVHF) following its acquisition of Golden Nugget Online Gaming (GNOG), which is pending closure. Therefore, investors in DraftKings are investing in a pure-play online leader which has demonstrated its ability to compete with players with profitable legacy gaming assets or even its land-based peers.</p><p><blockquote>空头质疑其商业模式是否有意义是正确的。尽管 DraftKings' 已显着加强了其在在线体育博彩 (OSB) 和 iGaming 市场的领导地位。对于刚接触这家公司的读者来说，DraftKings是OSB市场的第二大玩家，仅次于Flutter的FanDuel。在 iGaming 市场，BetMGM (MGM) (OTCPK:GMVHF) 收购了即将关闭的 Golden Nugget Online Gaming (GNOG)，成为仅次于 BetMGM (MGM) (OTCPK:GMVHF) 的第二大玩家。因此，DraftKings 的投资者正在投资一家纯粹的在线领导者，该公司已经证明了其有能力与拥有有利可图的传统游戏资产甚至陆基同行的玩家竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we believe it's vital for DraftKings to address its runway to profitability, which it did. It has also attracted significant interest from the Street. Therefore, it has also allowed the company to address it multiple times in the past. Yes, the company has already addressed it numerous times, but the question kept propping up. Moreover, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins articulated (edited): \"We are focused on people who are true believers.Some people will say anything to make a buck. Obviously, it's annoying when people come and make stuff up and do that at their own service, but there's not much you can do about it.\"</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们认为 DraftKings 解决盈利问题至关重要，而且它确实做到了。它也引起了街头的极大兴趣。因此，它也允许公司在过去多次解决这个问题。是的，该公司已经多次解决这个问题，但这个问题一直存在。此外，DraftKings 首席执行官杰森·罗宾斯 (Jason Robins) 表示（编辑）：“我们专注于真正的信徒。有些人会说任何话来赚钱。显然，当人们来编造东西并为自己服务时，这很烦人，但你对此无能为力。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> DraftKings has presented its road to profitability clearly. It emphasized that it takes two to three years to achieve profitability upon entering a newly legalized state. Technically, CFO Jason Park explained (edited):</p><p><blockquote>DraftKings 清楚地展示了其盈利之路。它强调，进入一个新的合法化国家后，需要两到三年才能实现盈利。从技术上讲，首席财务官 Jason Park 解释道（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> So, what we've said from the beginning is that DraftKings enterprise profitability will be a function of the profitability of every state that we're operating in. We acquire customers on a 2- to 3-year gross margin payback period that's sort of a truncated lifetime value (LTV) to CAC. As long as you have the conviction that we can be profitable in every state in 2 to 3 years, then the enterprise will turn profitable. (Jefferies Sports Betting & iGaming Summit) DraftKings has also emphasized many times in its past conference calls that it achieved profitability in one of its most important states New Jersey in just two years upon entry. Notably, the company also added that it's observing a similar profitability trajectory in other states. Therefore, DraftKings has made significant efforts to discuss investors' most pressing concerns and never avoided addressing them. Of course, the landscape is highly dynamic. The company highlighted that its most critical assumptions consider continued OSB and iGaming legalization. That forms the foundational basis of the company's business model. As of now, we haven't observed anything suspicious that the secular trend towards OSB and iGaming is slowing down.Goldman Sachs estimates that the OSB market could be worth $39B annually by 2033. Consumers are also moving towards online betting as mobile handle accounted for 84% of the total sports betting handle in October. The push towards OSB and iGaming legalization has gained momentum, and we don't think it would reverse course moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们从一开始就说过，DraftKings企业盈利能力将取决于我们运营所在的每个州的盈利能力。我们在 2 到 3 年的毛利率回收期内获得客户，这相当于 CAC 的截断终身价值 (LTV)。只要你坚信我们可以在2到3年内在每个州都盈利，那么企业就会盈利。（杰富瑞体育博彩和iGaming峰会）DraftKings在过去的会议评级中也多次强调，它在进入后的短短两年内就在其最重要的州之一新泽西州实现了盈利。值得注意的是，该公司还补充说，它正在其他州观察到类似的盈利轨迹。因此，DraftKings 做出了巨大努力来讨论投资者最紧迫的问题，并且从未回避解决这些问题。当然，景观是高度动态的。该公司强调，其最关键的假设考虑持续的OSB和iGaming合法化。这构成了公司商业模式的基础。到目前为止，我们还没有观察到任何可疑的迹象，表明定向刨花板和 iGaming 的长期趋势正在放缓。高盛估计，到 2033 年，定向刨花板市场每年的价值可能达到 39B 美元。消费者也在转向在线博彩，因为移动手柄占10月份体育博彩手柄总数的84%。推动OSB和iGaming合法化的势头已经增强，我们认为这不会逆转前进的进程。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, it's essential for investors to note that DraftKings is still in the early innings of its massive opportunity. The company is still ramping up in states they entered recently while moving towards profitability in earlier entries like New Jersey. Therefore, the mix is evolving, and investors should not expect the company to reach profitability in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者有必要注意到DraftKings仍处于其巨大机会的早期阶段。该公司仍在最近进入的州扩张，同时在新泽西州等早期进入的州实现盈利。因此，这种组合正在演变，投资者不应期望该公司在短期内实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep in Mind that DraftKings is Estimated to Achieve Significant Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>请记住，DraftKings 预计将实现显著的运营杠杆</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f4a60a8de564c1cf9283cc793a1312\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DraftKings revenue and adjusted EBITDA mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DraftKings 收入和调整后 EBITDA 均值共识估计。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f0d476974ed5ee4c6202a4cf49b72b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DraftKings adjusted EPS revision trend. Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DraftKings调整了每股收益修正趋势。来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can observe from the chart above that DraftKings is still estimated to grow its revenue through FY26 rapidly. Its revenue is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 29.2% through FY26. Meanwhile, it's also expected to continue gaining operating leverage significantly. Therefore, DraftKings is estimated to turn profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis from FY24.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以从上图中观察到，DraftKings 预计在 26 财年仍将快速增长其收入。预计到 26 财年，其收入将以 29.2% 的复合年增长率增长。同时，预计运营杠杆也将继续大幅提升。因此，DraftKings 预计将从 2024 财年起按调整后 EBITDA 基准实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we are aware that its adjusted EPS has been revised downwards throughout 2021. Consequently, its timeline towards achieving profitability has gotten stretched further. However, we believe that the company is trading short-term profitability for long-term operating leverage. In addition, DraftKings has often highlighted that its business model is highly data-driven. Therefore, management relies strongly on its data analytics to inform its spending patterns and maintain capital discipline. Consequently, they are not just simply burning cash in the hope of gaining market share.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们知道其调整后每股收益在 2021 年已向下修正。因此，其实现盈利的时间表进一步延长。但我们认为，公司是在用短期盈利换取长期经营杠杆。此外，DraftKings经常强调其商业模式是高度数据驱动的。因此，管理层严重依赖其数据分析来告知其支出模式并维持资本纪律。因此，他们不仅仅是为了获得市场份额而烧钱。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the company is counting on building a superior product and technology platform that it believes will give it a competitive advantage against its peers. Robins emphasized (edited):</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司还指望建立一个卓越的产品和技术平台，相信这将使其相对于同行具有竞争优势。罗宾斯强调（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> I think definitely convenience is important, the ease of use. So that's everything from making it simple for people by having a shared wallet across our products. They can easily navigate our products when they're in different states, and they can use the app. They can use the same account, the same wallet. It goes to having a very simple and intuitive user interface, having great service and customer support, being able to curate bets for people, based on the data that we have and personalization that our Data Science team does. I think all those things are really important. (Canaccord Genuity 2021 Digital Gaming Summit) <b>So, is DKNG Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote>我认为绝对方便是重要的，易用性。因此，这包括通过在我们的产品中共享钱包让人们变得简单。当他们处于不同的状态时，他们可以轻松地浏览我们的产品，并且他们可以使用该应用程序。他们可以使用同一个账户，同一个钱包。它拥有非常简单和直观的用户界面，拥有出色的服务和客户支持，能够根据我们拥有的数据和我们数据科学团队所做的个性化为人们策划投注。我认为所有这些事情都非常重要。（Canaccord Genuity 2021数字游戏峰会）<b>那么，DKNG 股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1febf75ef806df48d2e82c747652031\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DKNG stock EV/NTM Revenue trend.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DKNG 股票 EV/NTM 收入趋势。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db12c1447b06db9837c1605c8b139a81\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"228\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DKNG EV/NTM Revenue comps. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DKNG EV/NTM收入比较。资料来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> DKNG stock has undoubtedly been battered, and its valuation gap has closed with its legacy peers. It's trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 6.5x, against its mean since going public of 19.2x. Therefore, it's clear that the market has not been satisfied with the adjusted EPS revisions over the past year while the stock was trading at a premium.</p><p><blockquote>DKNG 股票无疑遭受重创，其估值差距已缩小，与传统同行的估值差距。该公司的 EV/NTM 收入为 6.5 倍，而上市以来的平均水平为 19.2 倍。因此，很明显，当该股溢价交易时，市场对过去一年调整后的每股收益修正并不满意。</blockquote></p><p> We concur that DraftKings need to show improvement in its operating leverage moving forward. However, we also emphasized that its enterprise profitability is complicated by the mix of new and mature states. Therefore, we believe that investors should evaluate the company profitability runway on a state-by-state basis.</p><p><blockquote>我们同意 DraftKings 未来需要提高其运营杠杆。然而，我们也强调，由于新国家和成熟国家的混合，其企业盈利能力变得复杂。因此，我们认为投资者应该逐州评估公司的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, given that DraftKings is still primed to achieve significant operating leverage, we believe that its premium valuation is justified. Its valuation should also help the company acquire companies with an equity deal instead of relying on cash offers. It would allow the company to realize capital flexibility in potential M&A offers, which could intensify moving forward. We believe that the competitive landscape would likely continue to consolidate, with more competitors and consumers coalescing towards OSB and iGaming. Therefore, scale, consumer data, and the tech stack are of paramount importance. It's also where DraftKings can exercise its competitive advantage. Moreover, compared to its heavily-indebted arch-rival Flutter, DraftKings is in a net cash position, further accentuating its capital flexibility.</p><p><blockquote>此外，鉴于 DraftKings 仍有望实现可观的运营杠杆，我们认为其溢价估值是合理的。其估值还应有助于该公司通过股权交易收购公司，而不是依赖现金要约。这将使该公司在潜在的并购要约中实现资本灵活性，这可能会加强前进。我们相信，竞争格局可能会继续巩固，更多竞争对手和消费者会聚集到定向刨花板和iGaming。因此，规模、消费者数据和技术堆栈至关重要。这也是DraftKings可以发挥竞争优势的地方。此外，与其负债累累的主要竞争对手 Flutter 相比，DraftKings 处于净现金状况，进一步凸显了其资本灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> We are confident that DraftKings management would leverage its leadership in OSB and iGaming as the legalization momentum carries on. Therefore, we encourage long-term investors to capitalize on its current weakness to add exposure to the online betting leader.</p><p><blockquote>我们相信，随着合法化势头的持续，DraftKings管理层将利用其在OSB和iGaming领域的领导地位。因此，我们鼓励长期投资者利用其当前的弱点，增加对在线博彩领导者的投资。</blockquote></p><p> As such, we reiterate our Buy rating on DKNG stock for long-term investors only.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们重申仅针对长期投资者对 DKNG 股票的买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p><p><blockquote>编者注：本文讨论了一种或多种不在美国主要交易所交易的证券。请注意与这些股票相关的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DraftKings Stock: Down 60% From Its High, A Great Long-Term Buy Opportunity Has Emerged<blockquote>DraftKings 股票：较高点下跌 60%，长期买入机会出现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDraftKings Stock: Down 60% From Its High, A Great Long-Term Buy Opportunity Has Emerged<blockquote>DraftKings 股票：较高点下跌 60%，长期买入机会出现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-27 16:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>DraftKings stock has collapsed 60% from its 2021 high.</li> <li>Investors are concerned whether the company can ever turn profitable.</li> <li>We discuss these concerns in the article.</li> <li>We also discuss why we think the opportunity for long-term investors is looking fantastic now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfae22a6401434242d4306d5de9fdf7\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Darren McCollester/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>DraftKings 股价已较 2021 年高点暴跌 60%。</li><li>投资者担心该公司能否实现盈利。</li><li>我们在文章中讨论了这些问题。</li><li>我们还讨论了为什么我们认为长期投资者的机会现在看起来非常好。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>达伦·麦考莱斯特/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) is one of the most contentious companies that we have covered. The short-sellers favorite has also been discussed in the media lately, as Jim Chanos called out DraftKings' business model as \"flawed.\" He also derided that DraftKings' sales and marketing spend was \"completely and totally insane.\"</p><p><blockquote>DraftKings Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：DKNG）是我们报道过的最具争议的公司之一。最近，媒体也讨论了卖空者的最爱，吉姆·查诺斯称 DraftKings 的商业模式“有缺陷”。他还嘲笑 DraftKings 的销售和营销支出“完全疯狂”。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, the short-sellers seem to have the momentum on their side as the price has declined 60% from its 2021 all-time high (ATH). In addition, S3 Partners have tracked consistent short-selling activity this year compared to the previous year. As of 15 December, DKNG's short percent of float reached 12.2%.</p><p><blockquote>目前，卖空者似乎势头强劲，价格已从 2021 年历史高点 (ATH) 下跌了 60%。此外，与上一年相比，S3 合作伙伴今年的卖空活动保持一致。截至12月15日，DKNG的空头流通量百分比达到12.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, DKNG stock has been holding at its crucial support level even as the short-selling activity intensified in recent weeks. We have been observing the price action closely and believe that if the current level continues to hold, the stock can consolidate moving forward. It would then allow the market makers to accumulate quietly before forcing the shorts to cover and subsequently drive up the stock's momentum.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，尽管最近几周卖空活动加剧，DKNG 股票仍保持在其关键支撑位。我们一直在密切关注价格走势，并相信如果当前水平继续保持，该股可以进一步盘整。然后，它将允许做市商在迫使空头回补之前安静地积累，随后推动股票的势头。</blockquote></p><p> The momentum in the market also seems to have swung back in favor of growth stocks lately. Coupled with the recent insider purchases, its price action, and the high short-selling activity, we believe it's time for long-term investors to consider adding exposure.</p><p><blockquote>最近市场的势头似乎也有利于成长型股票。再加上最近的内部购买、价格走势和高卖空活动，我们认为长期投资者是时候考虑增加敞口了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DKNG Stock Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DKNG 股票表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29e4677c0da747eebf5dea1fdb15ebbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DKNG stock YTD performance (as of 23 December' 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DKNG 股票年初至今表现（截至 21 年 12 月 23 日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f7e17e7edeef4d8c825a43d1a8d85b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DKNG stock performance from 24 April '20 (as of 23 December' 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DKNG股票截至20年4月24日（截至21年12月23日）的表现。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly glean that DraftKings stock has significantly underperformed this year, as it returned -36.8% YTD. Its keen rival Flutter Entertainment(OTCPK:PDYPY)also had an underwhelming year with a YTD return of 24.5%. However, considering its performance since it went public last year, the stock returned 52.1% or a CAGR of 28.7%. It outperformed Flutter, although it's underperforming the broad market currently. Some investors could have taken the opportunity to cash in, given the stock's magnificent gains since it went public.</p><p><blockquote>读者很快就会发现，DraftKings 股票今年的表现明显不佳，年初至今的回报率为 -36.8%。其劲敌 Flutter Entertainment (OTCPK: PDYPY) 今年也表现平平，年初至今的回报率为 24.5%。然而，考虑到其去年上市以来的表现，该股的回报率为52.1%，复合年增长率为28.7%。它的表现优于 Flutter，尽管目前它的表现逊于大盘。鉴于该股自上市以来涨幅巨大，一些投资者可能会借此机会套现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can DraftKings Ever Turn Profitable?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DraftKings能盈利吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/489ffa9da624d285ae2038c5655323ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DraftKings SG&A margins (LTM). Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DraftKings SG&A 保证金 (LTM)。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bears often lamented that CEO Jason Robins & Co. will \"never\" turn profitable as it continues to spend an astronomical amount on customer acquisitions costs (CAC). Readers can easily refer to the above chart where DraftKings' SG&A margin has consistently been over 100% of its revenue over the past year from a last-twelve-months (LTM) basis.</p><p><blockquote>看空者经常哀叹，首席执行官杰森·罗宾斯公司“永远”不会盈利，因为它继续在客户获取成本（CAC）上花费天文数字。读者可以轻松参考上图，其中 DraftKings 的 SG&A 利润率在过去一年中一直超过其过去 12 个月 (LTM) 收入的 100%。</blockquote></p><p> The bears are right to question whether its business model makes sense. It comes even as DraftKings' has significantly strengthened its leadership in the online sports betting (OSB) and the iGaming market. For readers who are new to this company, DraftKings' is the #2 player in the OSB market behind Flutter's FanDuel. In the iGaming market, it's the #2 player behind BetMGM (MGM) (OTCPK:GMVHF) following its acquisition of Golden Nugget Online Gaming (GNOG), which is pending closure. Therefore, investors in DraftKings are investing in a pure-play online leader which has demonstrated its ability to compete with players with profitable legacy gaming assets or even its land-based peers.</p><p><blockquote>空头质疑其商业模式是否有意义是正确的。尽管 DraftKings' 已显着加强了其在在线体育博彩 (OSB) 和 iGaming 市场的领导地位。对于刚接触这家公司的读者来说，DraftKings是OSB市场的第二大玩家，仅次于Flutter的FanDuel。在 iGaming 市场，BetMGM (MGM) (OTCPK:GMVHF) 收购了即将关闭的 Golden Nugget Online Gaming (GNOG)，成为仅次于 BetMGM (MGM) (OTCPK:GMVHF) 的第二大玩家。因此，DraftKings 的投资者正在投资一家纯粹的在线领导者，该公司已经证明了其有能力与拥有有利可图的传统游戏资产甚至陆基同行的玩家竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we believe it's vital for DraftKings to address its runway to profitability, which it did. It has also attracted significant interest from the Street. Therefore, it has also allowed the company to address it multiple times in the past. Yes, the company has already addressed it numerous times, but the question kept propping up. Moreover, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins articulated (edited): \"We are focused on people who are true believers.Some people will say anything to make a buck. Obviously, it's annoying when people come and make stuff up and do that at their own service, but there's not much you can do about it.\"</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们认为 DraftKings 解决盈利问题至关重要，而且它确实做到了。它也引起了街头的极大兴趣。因此，它也允许公司在过去多次解决这个问题。是的，该公司已经多次解决这个问题，但这个问题一直存在。此外，DraftKings 首席执行官杰森·罗宾斯 (Jason Robins) 表示（编辑）：“我们专注于真正的信徒。有些人会说任何话来赚钱。显然，当人们来编造东西并为自己服务时，这很烦人，但你对此无能为力。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> DraftKings has presented its road to profitability clearly. It emphasized that it takes two to three years to achieve profitability upon entering a newly legalized state. Technically, CFO Jason Park explained (edited):</p><p><blockquote>DraftKings 清楚地展示了其盈利之路。它强调，进入一个新的合法化国家后，需要两到三年才能实现盈利。从技术上讲，首席财务官 Jason Park 解释道（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> So, what we've said from the beginning is that DraftKings enterprise profitability will be a function of the profitability of every state that we're operating in. We acquire customers on a 2- to 3-year gross margin payback period that's sort of a truncated lifetime value (LTV) to CAC. As long as you have the conviction that we can be profitable in every state in 2 to 3 years, then the enterprise will turn profitable. (Jefferies Sports Betting & iGaming Summit) DraftKings has also emphasized many times in its past conference calls that it achieved profitability in one of its most important states New Jersey in just two years upon entry. Notably, the company also added that it's observing a similar profitability trajectory in other states. Therefore, DraftKings has made significant efforts to discuss investors' most pressing concerns and never avoided addressing them. Of course, the landscape is highly dynamic. The company highlighted that its most critical assumptions consider continued OSB and iGaming legalization. That forms the foundational basis of the company's business model. As of now, we haven't observed anything suspicious that the secular trend towards OSB and iGaming is slowing down.Goldman Sachs estimates that the OSB market could be worth $39B annually by 2033. Consumers are also moving towards online betting as mobile handle accounted for 84% of the total sports betting handle in October. The push towards OSB and iGaming legalization has gained momentum, and we don't think it would reverse course moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们从一开始就说过，DraftKings企业盈利能力将取决于我们运营所在的每个州的盈利能力。我们在 2 到 3 年的毛利率回收期内获得客户，这相当于 CAC 的截断终身价值 (LTV)。只要你坚信我们可以在2到3年内在每个州都盈利，那么企业就会盈利。（杰富瑞体育博彩和iGaming峰会）DraftKings在过去的会议评级中也多次强调，它在进入后的短短两年内就在其最重要的州之一新泽西州实现了盈利。值得注意的是，该公司还补充说，它正在其他州观察到类似的盈利轨迹。因此，DraftKings 做出了巨大努力来讨论投资者最紧迫的问题，并且从未回避解决这些问题。当然，景观是高度动态的。该公司强调，其最关键的假设考虑持续的OSB和iGaming合法化。这构成了公司商业模式的基础。到目前为止，我们还没有观察到任何可疑的迹象，表明定向刨花板和 iGaming 的长期趋势正在放缓。高盛估计，到 2033 年，定向刨花板市场每年的价值可能达到 39B 美元。消费者也在转向在线博彩，因为移动手柄占10月份体育博彩手柄总数的84%。推动OSB和iGaming合法化的势头已经增强，我们认为这不会逆转前进的进程。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, it's essential for investors to note that DraftKings is still in the early innings of its massive opportunity. The company is still ramping up in states they entered recently while moving towards profitability in earlier entries like New Jersey. Therefore, the mix is evolving, and investors should not expect the company to reach profitability in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者有必要注意到DraftKings仍处于其巨大机会的早期阶段。该公司仍在最近进入的州扩张，同时在新泽西州等早期进入的州实现盈利。因此，这种组合正在演变，投资者不应期望该公司在短期内实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep in Mind that DraftKings is Estimated to Achieve Significant Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>请记住，DraftKings 预计将实现显著的运营杠杆</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f4a60a8de564c1cf9283cc793a1312\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DraftKings revenue and adjusted EBITDA mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DraftKings 收入和调整后 EBITDA 均值共识估计。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f0d476974ed5ee4c6202a4cf49b72b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DraftKings adjusted EPS revision trend. Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DraftKings调整了每股收益修正趋势。来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can observe from the chart above that DraftKings is still estimated to grow its revenue through FY26 rapidly. Its revenue is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 29.2% through FY26. Meanwhile, it's also expected to continue gaining operating leverage significantly. Therefore, DraftKings is estimated to turn profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis from FY24.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以从上图中观察到，DraftKings 预计在 26 财年仍将快速增长其收入。预计到 26 财年，其收入将以 29.2% 的复合年增长率增长。同时，预计运营杠杆也将继续大幅提升。因此，DraftKings 预计将从 2024 财年起按调整后 EBITDA 基准实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we are aware that its adjusted EPS has been revised downwards throughout 2021. Consequently, its timeline towards achieving profitability has gotten stretched further. However, we believe that the company is trading short-term profitability for long-term operating leverage. In addition, DraftKings has often highlighted that its business model is highly data-driven. Therefore, management relies strongly on its data analytics to inform its spending patterns and maintain capital discipline. Consequently, they are not just simply burning cash in the hope of gaining market share.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们知道其调整后每股收益在 2021 年已向下修正。因此，其实现盈利的时间表进一步延长。但我们认为，公司是在用短期盈利换取长期经营杠杆。此外，DraftKings经常强调其商业模式是高度数据驱动的。因此，管理层严重依赖其数据分析来告知其支出模式并维持资本纪律。因此，他们不仅仅是为了获得市场份额而烧钱。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the company is counting on building a superior product and technology platform that it believes will give it a competitive advantage against its peers. Robins emphasized (edited):</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司还指望建立一个卓越的产品和技术平台，相信这将使其相对于同行具有竞争优势。罗宾斯强调（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> I think definitely convenience is important, the ease of use. So that's everything from making it simple for people by having a shared wallet across our products. They can easily navigate our products when they're in different states, and they can use the app. They can use the same account, the same wallet. It goes to having a very simple and intuitive user interface, having great service and customer support, being able to curate bets for people, based on the data that we have and personalization that our Data Science team does. I think all those things are really important. (Canaccord Genuity 2021 Digital Gaming Summit) <b>So, is DKNG Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote>我认为绝对方便是重要的，易用性。因此，这包括通过在我们的产品中共享钱包让人们变得简单。当他们处于不同的状态时，他们可以轻松地浏览我们的产品，并且他们可以使用该应用程序。他们可以使用同一个账户，同一个钱包。它拥有非常简单和直观的用户界面，拥有出色的服务和客户支持，能够根据我们拥有的数据和我们数据科学团队所做的个性化为人们策划投注。我认为所有这些事情都非常重要。（Canaccord Genuity 2021数字游戏峰会）<b>那么，DKNG 股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1febf75ef806df48d2e82c747652031\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DKNG stock EV/NTM Revenue trend.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DKNG 股票 EV/NTM 收入趋势。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db12c1447b06db9837c1605c8b139a81\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"228\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DKNG EV/NTM Revenue comps. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DKNG EV/NTM收入比较。资料来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> DKNG stock has undoubtedly been battered, and its valuation gap has closed with its legacy peers. It's trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 6.5x, against its mean since going public of 19.2x. Therefore, it's clear that the market has not been satisfied with the adjusted EPS revisions over the past year while the stock was trading at a premium.</p><p><blockquote>DKNG 股票无疑遭受重创，其估值差距已缩小，与传统同行的估值差距。该公司的 EV/NTM 收入为 6.5 倍，而上市以来的平均水平为 19.2 倍。因此，很明显，当该股溢价交易时，市场对过去一年调整后的每股收益修正并不满意。</blockquote></p><p> We concur that DraftKings need to show improvement in its operating leverage moving forward. However, we also emphasized that its enterprise profitability is complicated by the mix of new and mature states. Therefore, we believe that investors should evaluate the company profitability runway on a state-by-state basis.</p><p><blockquote>我们同意 DraftKings 未来需要提高其运营杠杆。然而，我们也强调，由于新国家和成熟国家的混合，其企业盈利能力变得复杂。因此，我们认为投资者应该逐州评估公司的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, given that DraftKings is still primed to achieve significant operating leverage, we believe that its premium valuation is justified. Its valuation should also help the company acquire companies with an equity deal instead of relying on cash offers. It would allow the company to realize capital flexibility in potential M&A offers, which could intensify moving forward. We believe that the competitive landscape would likely continue to consolidate, with more competitors and consumers coalescing towards OSB and iGaming. Therefore, scale, consumer data, and the tech stack are of paramount importance. It's also where DraftKings can exercise its competitive advantage. Moreover, compared to its heavily-indebted arch-rival Flutter, DraftKings is in a net cash position, further accentuating its capital flexibility.</p><p><blockquote>此外，鉴于 DraftKings 仍有望实现可观的运营杠杆，我们认为其溢价估值是合理的。其估值还应有助于该公司通过股权交易收购公司，而不是依赖现金要约。这将使该公司在潜在的并购要约中实现资本灵活性，这可能会加强前进。我们相信，竞争格局可能会继续巩固，更多竞争对手和消费者会聚集到定向刨花板和iGaming。因此，规模、消费者数据和技术堆栈至关重要。这也是DraftKings可以发挥竞争优势的地方。此外，与其负债累累的主要竞争对手 Flutter 相比，DraftKings 处于净现金状况，进一步凸显了其资本灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> We are confident that DraftKings management would leverage its leadership in OSB and iGaming as the legalization momentum carries on. Therefore, we encourage long-term investors to capitalize on its current weakness to add exposure to the online betting leader.</p><p><blockquote>我们相信，随着合法化势头的持续，DraftKings管理层将利用其在OSB和iGaming领域的领导地位。因此，我们鼓励长期投资者利用其当前的弱点，增加对在线博彩领导者的投资。</blockquote></p><p> As such, we reiterate our Buy rating on DKNG stock for long-term investors only.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们重申仅针对长期投资者对 DKNG 股票的买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p><p><blockquote>编者注：本文讨论了一种或多种不在美国主要交易所交易的证券。请注意与这些股票相关的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476788-draftkings-dkng-stock-down-from-high-long-term-buy-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DKNG":"DraftKings Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476788-draftkings-dkng-stock-down-from-high-long-term-buy-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177527268","content_text":"Summary\n\nDraftKings stock has collapsed 60% from its 2021 high.\nInvestors are concerned whether the company can ever turn profitable.\nWe discuss these concerns in the article.\nWe also discuss why we think the opportunity for long-term investors is looking fantastic now.\n\nDarren McCollester/Getty Images Entertainment\nDraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) is one of the most contentious companies that we have covered. The short-sellers favorite has also been discussed in the media lately, as Jim Chanos called out DraftKings' business model as \"flawed.\" He also derided that DraftKings' sales and marketing spend was \"completely and totally insane.\"\nCurrently, the short-sellers seem to have the momentum on their side as the price has declined 60% from its 2021 all-time high (ATH). In addition, S3 Partners have tracked consistent short-selling activity this year compared to the previous year. As of 15 December, DKNG's short percent of float reached 12.2%.\nNotably, DKNG stock has been holding at its crucial support level even as the short-selling activity intensified in recent weeks. We have been observing the price action closely and believe that if the current level continues to hold, the stock can consolidate moving forward. It would then allow the market makers to accumulate quietly before forcing the shorts to cover and subsequently drive up the stock's momentum.\nThe momentum in the market also seems to have swung back in favor of growth stocks lately. Coupled with the recent insider purchases, its price action, and the high short-selling activity, we believe it's time for long-term investors to consider adding exposure.\nDKNG Stock Performance\nDKNG stock YTD performance (as of 23 December' 21).\nDKNG stock performance from 24 April '20 (as of 23 December' 21).\nReaders can quickly glean that DraftKings stock has significantly underperformed this year, as it returned -36.8% YTD. Its keen rival Flutter Entertainment(OTCPK:PDYPY)also had an underwhelming year with a YTD return of 24.5%. However, considering its performance since it went public last year, the stock returned 52.1% or a CAGR of 28.7%. It outperformed Flutter, although it's underperforming the broad market currently. Some investors could have taken the opportunity to cash in, given the stock's magnificent gains since it went public.\nCan DraftKings Ever Turn Profitable?\nDraftKings SG&A margins (LTM). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBears often lamented that CEO Jason Robins & Co. will \"never\" turn profitable as it continues to spend an astronomical amount on customer acquisitions costs (CAC). Readers can easily refer to the above chart where DraftKings' SG&A margin has consistently been over 100% of its revenue over the past year from a last-twelve-months (LTM) basis.\nThe bears are right to question whether its business model makes sense. It comes even as DraftKings' has significantly strengthened its leadership in the online sports betting (OSB) and the iGaming market. For readers who are new to this company, DraftKings' is the #2 player in the OSB market behind Flutter's FanDuel. In the iGaming market, it's the #2 player behind BetMGM (MGM) (OTCPK:GMVHF) following its acquisition of Golden Nugget Online Gaming (GNOG), which is pending closure. Therefore, investors in DraftKings are investing in a pure-play online leader which has demonstrated its ability to compete with players with profitable legacy gaming assets or even its land-based peers.\nNevertheless, we believe it's vital for DraftKings to address its runway to profitability, which it did. It has also attracted significant interest from the Street. Therefore, it has also allowed the company to address it multiple times in the past. Yes, the company has already addressed it numerous times, but the question kept propping up. Moreover, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins articulated (edited): \"We are focused on people who are true believers.Some people will say anything to make a buck. Obviously, it's annoying when people come and make stuff up and do that at their own service, but there's not much you can do about it.\"\nDraftKings has presented its road to profitability clearly. It emphasized that it takes two to three years to achieve profitability upon entering a newly legalized state. Technically, CFO Jason Park explained (edited):\n\n So, what we've said from the beginning is that DraftKings enterprise profitability will be a function of the profitability of every state that we're operating in. We acquire customers on a 2- to 3-year gross margin payback period that's sort of a truncated lifetime value (LTV) to CAC. As long as you have the conviction that we can be profitable in every state in 2 to 3 years, then the enterprise will turn profitable. (Jefferies Sports Betting & iGaming Summit)\n\nDraftKings has also emphasized many times in its past conference calls that it achieved profitability in one of its most important states New Jersey in just two years upon entry. Notably, the company also added that it's observing a similar profitability trajectory in other states. Therefore, DraftKings has made significant efforts to discuss investors' most pressing concerns and never avoided addressing them. Of course, the landscape is highly dynamic. The company highlighted that its most critical assumptions consider continued OSB and iGaming legalization. That forms the foundational basis of the company's business model. As of now, we haven't observed anything suspicious that the secular trend towards OSB and iGaming is slowing down.Goldman Sachs estimates that the OSB market could be worth $39B annually by 2033. Consumers are also moving towards online betting as mobile handle accounted for 84% of the total sports betting handle in October. The push towards OSB and iGaming legalization has gained momentum, and we don't think it would reverse course moving forward.\nTherefore, it's essential for investors to note that DraftKings is still in the early innings of its massive opportunity. The company is still ramping up in states they entered recently while moving towards profitability in earlier entries like New Jersey. Therefore, the mix is evolving, and investors should not expect the company to reach profitability in the near term.\nKeep in Mind that DraftKings is Estimated to Achieve Significant Operating Leverage\nDraftKings revenue and adjusted EBITDA mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nDraftKings adjusted EPS revision trend. Source: Seeking Alpha\nReaders can observe from the chart above that DraftKings is still estimated to grow its revenue through FY26 rapidly. Its revenue is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 29.2% through FY26. Meanwhile, it's also expected to continue gaining operating leverage significantly. Therefore, DraftKings is estimated to turn profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis from FY24.\nNevertheless, we are aware that its adjusted EPS has been revised downwards throughout 2021. Consequently, its timeline towards achieving profitability has gotten stretched further. However, we believe that the company is trading short-term profitability for long-term operating leverage. In addition, DraftKings has often highlighted that its business model is highly data-driven. Therefore, management relies strongly on its data analytics to inform its spending patterns and maintain capital discipline. Consequently, they are not just simply burning cash in the hope of gaining market share.\nIn addition, the company is counting on building a superior product and technology platform that it believes will give it a competitive advantage against its peers. Robins emphasized (edited):\n\n I think definitely convenience is important, the ease of use. So that's everything from making it simple for people by having a shared wallet across our products. They can easily navigate our products when they're in different states, and they can use the app. They can use the same account, the same wallet. It goes to having a very simple and intuitive user interface, having great service and customer support, being able to curate bets for people, based on the data that we have and personalization that our Data Science team does. I think all those things are really important. (Canaccord Genuity 2021 Digital Gaming Summit)\n\nSo, is DKNG Stock a Buy Now?\nDKNG stock EV/NTM Revenue trend.\nDKNG EV/NTM Revenue comps. Source: TIKR\nDKNG stock has undoubtedly been battered, and its valuation gap has closed with its legacy peers. It's trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 6.5x, against its mean since going public of 19.2x. Therefore, it's clear that the market has not been satisfied with the adjusted EPS revisions over the past year while the stock was trading at a premium.\nWe concur that DraftKings need to show improvement in its operating leverage moving forward. However, we also emphasized that its enterprise profitability is complicated by the mix of new and mature states. Therefore, we believe that investors should evaluate the company profitability runway on a state-by-state basis.\nIn addition, given that DraftKings is still primed to achieve significant operating leverage, we believe that its premium valuation is justified. Its valuation should also help the company acquire companies with an equity deal instead of relying on cash offers. It would allow the company to realize capital flexibility in potential M&A offers, which could intensify moving forward. We believe that the competitive landscape would likely continue to consolidate, with more competitors and consumers coalescing towards OSB and iGaming. Therefore, scale, consumer data, and the tech stack are of paramount importance. It's also where DraftKings can exercise its competitive advantage. Moreover, compared to its heavily-indebted arch-rival Flutter, DraftKings is in a net cash position, further accentuating its capital flexibility.\nWe are confident that DraftKings management would leverage its leadership in OSB and iGaming as the legalization momentum carries on. Therefore, we encourage long-term investors to capitalize on its current weakness to add exposure to the online betting leader.\nAs such, we reiterate our Buy rating on DKNG stock for long-term investors only.\nEditor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DKNG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3332,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/696972577"}
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