Universe宇宙
2021-12-27
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Plug Power Trades Like A Story Stock And Smells Like An Early-Stage Tesla<blockquote>普拉格能源的交易就像一只故事股票，闻起来像早期特斯拉</blockquote>
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Plug Power (PLUG) is a pure-play hydrogen company that has yet to run a profit. Still, the stock has returned a total of almost 2,000% over the last 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>一家多年来不断烧钱的利基行业公司，怎么可能拥有超过17B美元的市值？普拉格能源 (PLUG) 是一家纯粹的氢公司，尚未实现盈利。尽管如此，该股在过去 5 年中的总回报率接近 2,000%。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I will investigate the promises and expectations behind Plug Power and compare the stock to another stock with large promises: Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将调查普拉格能源背后的承诺和预期，并将该股与另一只具有巨大承诺的股票进行比较：特斯拉（TSLA）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Great stock performance, but a lofty valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票表现出色，但估值很高</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power has behaved somewhat like a battleground stock during the last couple of years. Ever since the 2014 hydrogen rally, Plug Power has remained a stock that lured investors who believe in the technology, but also attracted quite some short-sellers, judged by its current short interest of almost 10 percent.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几年里，普拉格能源的表现有点像战场股票。自 2014 年氢能反弹以来，普拉格能源一直是一只吸引相信该技术的投资者的股票，但也吸引了相当多的卖空者，从其目前近 10% 的空头利息来看。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, the stock has experienced a huge liftoff, most likely fueled by the announcement of the Build Back Better Plan of president Biden. Since then, Plug Power's stock more or less came back to earth again, even though it is still trading at a very high price to sales ratio.</p><p><blockquote>最近，该股经历了大幅上涨，很可能是由拜登总统宣布的“重建更好”计划推动的。从那时起，Plug Power 的股票或多或少又回到了地球，尽管它的市销率仍然非常高。</blockquote></p><p> Please review the following charts for illustration of these metrics:</p><p><blockquote>请查看以下图表以说明这些指标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3664f73c0fc1fcd1b2673c8df4701be5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>Plug Power development of share price, short interest, and price to sales ratio during the last 10 years. (source: YCharts)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>普拉格能源过去10年股价、空头权益和市销率的发展情况。（来源：YCharts）</i></blockquote></p><p> A true story stock</p><p><blockquote>真实故事股票</blockquote></p><p> A story stock refers to a company's shares whose value reflects expected outperformance, the culmination of some new innovation, or favorable press coverage, rather than its market value being solely based on fundamentals like assets and income (Source:Investopedia) A story can be a powerful backbone of stock performance. Though the hydrogen market is still somewhat of a niche, the story of Plug is one of great expectations.</p><p><blockquote>故事股票是指公司的股票，其价值反映了预期的优异表现、一些新创新的顶峰或有利的媒体报道，而不是其市场价值仅基于资产和收入等基本面（来源：Investopedia）故事可以是股票表现的强大支柱。尽管氢市场在某种程度上仍然是一个利基市场，但插头的故事是一个巨大的期望。</blockquote></p><p> Hydrogen is indeed a promising market. Let us explore the potential benefits and promises of hydrogen:</p><p><blockquote>氢确实是一个有前途的市场。让我们探索氢的潜在优势和前景：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Green hydrogen can help to decarbonize multiple sectors in which it is difficult to reduce emissions, like long-haul transport, chemical industry, and iron and steel production.</li> <li>Green hydrogen can contribute to improvements in air quality and energy security.</li> <li>Hydrogen can be produced using a multitude of sources, such as renewables, nuclear energy, natural gas, oil, and even coal. Transportation can be done using pipelines or in liquefied form. It can be transformed into electricity very easily.</li> <li>Hydrogen can play an important role in coping with the variable outputs of renewable energy sources. Wind and solar energy output are not always in sync with electricity demand, and hydrogen can be used as a store or energy in times when renewable energy production outpaces demand. These storages can be used in times when renewable energy output is lower than demand, and can be saved for days, weeks, or even months, and can even be transported over long distances if needed.</li> <li>Clean hydrogen is currently used in an expanding number of projects worldwide, and it seems to be a matter of time before the technology is scaled up and costs are brought down.</li> <li>Currently, hydrogen is mostly used in oil refining processes and for the production of fertilizers. Sectors in which it is still hardly used, like transport, buildings, and power generation seem large untapped markets.</li> </ul> As such, hydrogen could play an important supporting role in the renewable energy transition, supplying markets that are difficult or impractical to reach for batteries.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>绿色氢可以帮助多个难以减排的行业脱碳，例如长途运输、化学工业和钢铁生产。</li><li>绿色氢有助于改善空气质量和能源安全。</li><li>氢气可以使用多种来源生产，例如可再生能源、核能、天然气、石油，甚至煤炭。运输可以使用管道或以液化形式进行。它可以很容易地转化为电力。</li><li>氢可以在应对可再生能源的可变输出方面发挥重要作用。风能和太阳能输出并不总是与电力需求同步，当可再生能源产量超过需求时，氢可以用作储存或能源。这些存储可以在可再生能源输出低于需求的时候使用，可以保存几天、几周甚至几个月，如果需要，甚至可以长距离运输。</li><li>目前，全球越来越多的项目正在使用清洁氢，该技术扩大规模并降低成本似乎只是时间问题。</li><li>目前，氢气主要用于炼油过程和化肥生产。交通运输、建筑和发电等仍然很少使用它的行业似乎是尚未开发的巨大市场。</li></ul>因此，氢可以在可再生能源转型中发挥重要的支持作用，为电池难以或不切实际进入的市场供应。</blockquote></p><p> Plug Power has a focused strategy, is already an established business in the hydrogen market, and has a large growing number of commercial relationships. This might mean that the company has the potential to become one of the first pure-play hydrogen companies which could transition from a story stock to a large positive cash flow company.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源拥有专注的战略，已经是氢市场的成熟企业，并且拥有大量不断增长的商业关系。这可能意味着该公司有潜力成为首批从故事股转型为大型正现金流公司的纯氢公司之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The commercial relationships and collaborations which Plug is undertaking are among the most important future drivers of growth for the company, among which are collaborations with Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF),Phillips66(PSX),Acciona(OTCPK:ACXIF),BAE Systems(OTCPK:BAESF),Baker Hughes(BKR), and Brookfield Renewable(BEP).</p><p><blockquote>Plug 正在开展的商业关系和合作是公司未来最重要的增长动力之一，其中包括与空中客车公司 (OTCPK:EADSF)、Phillips66 (PSX)、Acciona (OTCPK:ACXIF)、BAE Systems (OTCPK:BAESF)、贝克休斯 (BKR) 和布鲁克菲尔德可再生能源 (BEP) 的合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Parallels with early-stage Tesla</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与早期特斯拉的相似之处</b></blockquote></p><p> I think it is very interesting to compare Plug Power with Tesla. This seems to make sense since they were both one of the largest first movers in big markets: EV for Tesla and hydrogen for Plug. Tesla also was (and might still be) a good example of a story stock, with their large promises of electrifying the automotive sector.</p><p><blockquote>我认为将普拉格能源与特斯拉进行比较是非常有趣的。这似乎是有道理的，因为它们都是大型市场中最大的先行者之一：特斯拉的电动汽车和插头的氢。特斯拉也是（而且可能仍然是）故事股的一个很好的例子，它们对汽车行业的电气化做出了巨大承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Let us look at the share price development, short percentage, and PS ratio of Tesla during the period from 2010 to the end of 2019:</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看看2010年至2019年底期间特斯拉的股价走势、空头百分比和市盈率：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9911b4514f3c0a566dffcd28c188e1c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>Tesla's development of share price, short interest, and price to sales ratio between 2010 and the end of 2019. (source: YCharts)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2010年至2019年底特斯拉股价、空头权益和市销率的发展情况。（来源：YCharts）</i></blockquote></p><p> There are some noticeable differences between the share price development of Plug Power and an earlier-stage Tesla. First of all, from 2012 to 2019, the percentage of Tesla's stock sold short has consistently oscillated around 20%. Plug Power is already under 10% and has moved around 15% for the largest part of the last couple of years. But the biggest difference between the two stocks is probably that the price to sales ratio of Tesla has trended down quickly between 2010 and the end of 2019. Since Plug Power's price to sales ratio is heavily influenced by its recent outlier, let us take a look at a graph comparing the two between 2010 and September of this year:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源的股价发展与早期阶段的特斯拉之间存在一些明显的差异。首先，从2012年到2019年，特斯拉股票被卖空的比例一直在20%左右波动。普拉格能源已经低于 10%，并且在过去几年的大部分时间里一直徘徊在 15% 左右。但两只股票最大的区别可能在于，特斯拉的市销率在2010年至2019年底之间呈快速下降趋势。由于 Plug Power 的市销率受到最近异常值的严重影响，让我们看一下 2010 年至今年 9 月期间两者的比较图表：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d46be5e658002b2f45b8c5ca43559b93\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>Tesla and Plug Power development price to sales ratio between 2010 and September 2021. (source: YCharts)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2010年至2021年9月期间特斯拉和普拉格能源开发价格销售比。（来源：YCharts）</i></blockquote></p><p> These two ratios look to have a lot more in common. But as we can already see, after the end of 2019, Tesla's price to sales ratio went sharply up again. The reason for this was, of course, the almost unprecedented skyrocketing of the Tesla stock starting from the end of 2019. This is illustrated in the following graph of what happened to Tesla shares from September 2019 until now:</p><p><blockquote>这两个比率看起来有更多的共同点。但正如我们已经看到的，2019年底后，特斯拉的市销比再次大幅上升。原因当然是特斯拉股票从2019年底开始几乎前所未有的暴涨。下图说明了从 2019 年 9 月至今特斯拉股票的走势：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d29232b1b3d9ff99e1edb6e4eac33901\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>Development of Tesla share price, short interest, and price to sales ratio between September 2019 and now. (source: YCharts)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2019年9月至今特斯拉股价、空头权益和市销率的发展。（来源：YCharts）</i></blockquote></p><p> As the stock price of Tesla skyrocketed, the short percentage went down sharply and the PS ratio went up.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉股价暴涨，空头百分比大幅下降，PS比率上升。</blockquote></p><p> The million-dollar question is of course, could this happen to Plug Power as well? Technically, if we look solely at the metrics of Plug compared with the metrics of Tesla just before the stock price exploded, the P/S ratio of Plug is still much too high to expect that the stock could go in the same direction in short order. I also believe that fundamentally, Plug would need to experience some serious growth for the stock to be able to regain its recent upward momentum.</p><p><blockquote>当然，百万美元的问题是，这也会发生在普拉格能源身上吗？从技术上讲，如果我们只看 Plug 的指标与特斯拉在股价爆炸前的指标进行比较，Plug 的市盈率仍然太高，无法指望该股在短期内会朝着相同的方向发展。我还认为，从根本上来说，Plug 需要经历一些严重的增长，该股才能重新获得近期的上涨势头。</blockquote></p><p> Another similarity between Plug and Tesla is that negative earnings surprises have been many at Plug recently, this happened to Tesla as well in 2019. At the time, Tesla's stock price was not negatively impacted by those surprises. Currently, the market seems to shake off Plug Power's results as well, though the stock did drop by more than 50% since last year.</p><p><blockquote>Plug 和特斯拉之间的另一个相似之处是，Plug 最近出现了很多负盈利意外，2019 年特斯拉也发生了这种情况。当时，特斯拉的股价并未受到这些意外的负面影响。目前，市场似乎也摆脱了Plug Power的业绩，尽管该股自去年以来确实下跌了50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Currently, expectations still beat metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>目前，预期仍超出指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Like Tesla, Plug's share price seems to be governed more by growth expectations than by current stock metrics. This<i>could</i>mean that Plug would be able to go in the same direction as Tesla if enough investors remain convinced that their business model is profitable for the future and if growth can be expected to continue. Also, as for Tesla, in the long term, fundamental metrics will need to correspond with their lofty valuations. This means that the companies will need to deliver on their expectations.</p><p><blockquote>与特斯拉一样，Plug 的股价似乎更多地受增长预期而不是当前股票指标的影响。这个<i>可以</i>这意味着，如果有足够多的投资者仍然相信他们的商业模式在未来是有利可图的，并且增长可以持续，那么 Plug 将能够与特斯拉走上相同的方向。此外，至于特斯拉，从长远来看，基本面指标需要与其高估值相匹配。这意味着这些公司需要实现他们的期望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>These are some very large ifs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这些是一些非常大的如果。</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the hydrogen market is different from the EV market. Since the energy density of hydrogen is very high, it will likely be able to compete in markets where batteries still have issues, like long-haul transport. On the other hand, on an energy efficiency level, batteries have some large benefits over hydrogen for smaller transport purposes. On aggregate, I am skeptical about hydrogen being able to be a strong competitor in the EV space, but it will likely play a large role in other modes of transport, as in energy storage.</p><p><blockquote>当然，氢市场与电动汽车市场不同。由于氢的能量密度非常高，它很可能能够在电池仍然存在问题的市场上竞争，例如长途运输。另一方面，在能源效率水平上，对于小型运输目的，电池比氢有一些很大的优势。总体而言，我对氢能否成为电动汽车领域的强有力竞争对手持怀疑态度，但它可能会在其他交通方式（例如能源存储）中发挥重要作用。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Plug Power has been trading like a stock for believers, which shows some strong parallels with Tesla. Theoretically, the stock could follow the same direction as Tesla did, but this is anyone's guess and I believe it would take more growth to continue its upward momentum.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源的交易就像信徒的股票，这与特斯拉有一些强烈的相似之处。理论上，该股可能会遵循与特斯拉相同的方向，但这只是任何人的猜测，我相信需要更多的增长才能继续其上涨势头。</blockquote></p><p> Plug Power is a promising business, but the company had some bad results recently. This did not impact the stock much during the last 2 years. In the short term, the stock price seems to be most impacted by sentiment and not by fundamentals. This makes it a wonderful stock for traders, but as a long-term investor, I am staying on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源是一家很有前途的企业，但该公司最近业绩不佳。这在过去两年中并没有对股票产生太大影响。短期来看，股价似乎受情绪影响最大，而不是基本面。这使得它成为交易者的绝佳股票，但作为一名长期投资者，我持观望态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Plug Power Trades Like A Story Stock And Smells Like An Early-Stage Tesla<blockquote>普拉格能源的交易就像一只故事股票，闻起来像早期特斯拉</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPlug Power Trades Like A Story Stock And Smells Like An Early-Stage Tesla<blockquote>普拉格能源的交易就像一只故事股票，闻起来像早期特斯拉</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-27 21:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The stock of Plug Power enjoyed some great appreciation during the last years, which seems hard to explain when purely looking at the fundamentals.</li> <li>The stock performance of almost 2,000% over the last 5 years is an illustration of the increased momentum of the hydrogen market.</li> <li>Plug Power shows some important parallels with Tesla, on which I will elaborate in this article.</li> <li>If the sentiment can remain positive while growth continues, short-term fundamentals might not matter much.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80405c7f3988b402597ce18944c15c47\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"683\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>http://www.fotogestoeber.de/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>普拉格能源的股票在过去几年中获得了一些巨大的升值，纯粹从基本面来看，这似乎很难解释。</li><li>过去 5 年近 2,000% 的股票表现说明了氢市场势头的增强。</li><li>普拉格能源与特斯拉有一些重要的相似之处，我将在本文中详细阐述。</li><li>如果市场情绪能够在持续增长的同时保持乐观，那么短期基本面可能并不重要。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>http://www.fotogestoeber.de/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> How can a company in a niche sector which has continuously burned cash over the years have a market capitalization of over $17B? Plug Power (PLUG) is a pure-play hydrogen company that has yet to run a profit. Still, the stock has returned a total of almost 2,000% over the last 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>一家多年来不断烧钱的利基行业公司，怎么可能拥有超过17B美元的市值？普拉格能源 (PLUG) 是一家纯粹的氢公司，尚未实现盈利。尽管如此，该股在过去 5 年中的总回报率接近 2,000%。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I will investigate the promises and expectations behind Plug Power and compare the stock to another stock with large promises: Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将调查普拉格能源背后的承诺和预期，并将该股与另一只具有巨大承诺的股票进行比较：特斯拉（TSLA）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Great stock performance, but a lofty valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票表现出色，但估值很高</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power has behaved somewhat like a battleground stock during the last couple of years. Ever since the 2014 hydrogen rally, Plug Power has remained a stock that lured investors who believe in the technology, but also attracted quite some short-sellers, judged by its current short interest of almost 10 percent.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几年里，普拉格能源的表现有点像战场股票。自 2014 年氢能反弹以来，普拉格能源一直是一只吸引相信该技术的投资者的股票，但也吸引了相当多的卖空者，从其目前近 10% 的空头利息来看。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, the stock has experienced a huge liftoff, most likely fueled by the announcement of the Build Back Better Plan of president Biden. Since then, Plug Power's stock more or less came back to earth again, even though it is still trading at a very high price to sales ratio.</p><p><blockquote>最近，该股经历了大幅上涨，很可能是由拜登总统宣布的“重建更好”计划推动的。从那时起，Plug Power 的股票或多或少又回到了地球，尽管它的市销率仍然非常高。</blockquote></p><p> Please review the following charts for illustration of these metrics:</p><p><blockquote>请查看以下图表以说明这些指标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3664f73c0fc1fcd1b2673c8df4701be5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>Plug Power development of share price, short interest, and price to sales ratio during the last 10 years. (source: YCharts)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>普拉格能源过去10年股价、空头权益和市销率的发展情况。（来源：YCharts）</i></blockquote></p><p> A true story stock</p><p><blockquote>真实故事股票</blockquote></p><p> A story stock refers to a company's shares whose value reflects expected outperformance, the culmination of some new innovation, or favorable press coverage, rather than its market value being solely based on fundamentals like assets and income (Source:Investopedia) A story can be a powerful backbone of stock performance. Though the hydrogen market is still somewhat of a niche, the story of Plug is one of great expectations.</p><p><blockquote>故事股票是指公司的股票，其价值反映了预期的优异表现、一些新创新的顶峰或有利的媒体报道，而不是其市场价值仅基于资产和收入等基本面（来源：Investopedia）故事可以是股票表现的强大支柱。尽管氢市场在某种程度上仍然是一个利基市场，但插头的故事是一个巨大的期望。</blockquote></p><p> Hydrogen is indeed a promising market. Let us explore the potential benefits and promises of hydrogen:</p><p><blockquote>氢确实是一个有前途的市场。让我们探索氢的潜在优势和前景：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Green hydrogen can help to decarbonize multiple sectors in which it is difficult to reduce emissions, like long-haul transport, chemical industry, and iron and steel production.</li> <li>Green hydrogen can contribute to improvements in air quality and energy security.</li> <li>Hydrogen can be produced using a multitude of sources, such as renewables, nuclear energy, natural gas, oil, and even coal. Transportation can be done using pipelines or in liquefied form. It can be transformed into electricity very easily.</li> <li>Hydrogen can play an important role in coping with the variable outputs of renewable energy sources. Wind and solar energy output are not always in sync with electricity demand, and hydrogen can be used as a store or energy in times when renewable energy production outpaces demand. These storages can be used in times when renewable energy output is lower than demand, and can be saved for days, weeks, or even months, and can even be transported over long distances if needed.</li> <li>Clean hydrogen is currently used in an expanding number of projects worldwide, and it seems to be a matter of time before the technology is scaled up and costs are brought down.</li> <li>Currently, hydrogen is mostly used in oil refining processes and for the production of fertilizers. Sectors in which it is still hardly used, like transport, buildings, and power generation seem large untapped markets.</li> </ul> As such, hydrogen could play an important supporting role in the renewable energy transition, supplying markets that are difficult or impractical to reach for batteries.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>绿色氢可以帮助多个难以减排的行业脱碳，例如长途运输、化学工业和钢铁生产。</li><li>绿色氢有助于改善空气质量和能源安全。</li><li>氢气可以使用多种来源生产，例如可再生能源、核能、天然气、石油，甚至煤炭。运输可以使用管道或以液化形式进行。它可以很容易地转化为电力。</li><li>氢可以在应对可再生能源的可变输出方面发挥重要作用。风能和太阳能输出并不总是与电力需求同步，当可再生能源产量超过需求时，氢可以用作储存或能源。这些存储可以在可再生能源输出低于需求的时候使用，可以保存几天、几周甚至几个月，如果需要，甚至可以长距离运输。</li><li>目前，全球越来越多的项目正在使用清洁氢，该技术扩大规模并降低成本似乎只是时间问题。</li><li>目前，氢气主要用于炼油过程和化肥生产。交通运输、建筑和发电等仍然很少使用它的行业似乎是尚未开发的巨大市场。</li></ul>因此，氢可以在可再生能源转型中发挥重要的支持作用，为电池难以或不切实际进入的市场供应。</blockquote></p><p> Plug Power has a focused strategy, is already an established business in the hydrogen market, and has a large growing number of commercial relationships. This might mean that the company has the potential to become one of the first pure-play hydrogen companies which could transition from a story stock to a large positive cash flow company.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源拥有专注的战略，已经是氢市场的成熟企业，并且拥有大量不断增长的商业关系。这可能意味着该公司有潜力成为首批从故事股转型为大型正现金流公司的纯氢公司之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The commercial relationships and collaborations which Plug is undertaking are among the most important future drivers of growth for the company, among which are collaborations with Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF),Phillips66(PSX),Acciona(OTCPK:ACXIF),BAE Systems(OTCPK:BAESF),Baker Hughes(BKR), and Brookfield Renewable(BEP).</p><p><blockquote>Plug 正在开展的商业关系和合作是公司未来最重要的增长动力之一，其中包括与空中客车公司 (OTCPK:EADSF)、Phillips66 (PSX)、Acciona (OTCPK:ACXIF)、BAE Systems (OTCPK:BAESF)、贝克休斯 (BKR) 和布鲁克菲尔德可再生能源 (BEP) 的合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Parallels with early-stage Tesla</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与早期特斯拉的相似之处</b></blockquote></p><p> I think it is very interesting to compare Plug Power with Tesla. This seems to make sense since they were both one of the largest first movers in big markets: EV for Tesla and hydrogen for Plug. Tesla also was (and might still be) a good example of a story stock, with their large promises of electrifying the automotive sector.</p><p><blockquote>我认为将普拉格能源与特斯拉进行比较是非常有趣的。这似乎是有道理的，因为它们都是大型市场中最大的先行者之一：特斯拉的电动汽车和插头的氢。特斯拉也是（而且可能仍然是）故事股的一个很好的例子，它们对汽车行业的电气化做出了巨大承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Let us look at the share price development, short percentage, and PS ratio of Tesla during the period from 2010 to the end of 2019:</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看看2010年至2019年底期间特斯拉的股价走势、空头百分比和市盈率：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9911b4514f3c0a566dffcd28c188e1c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>Tesla's development of share price, short interest, and price to sales ratio between 2010 and the end of 2019. (source: YCharts)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2010年至2019年底特斯拉股价、空头权益和市销率的发展情况。（来源：YCharts）</i></blockquote></p><p> There are some noticeable differences between the share price development of Plug Power and an earlier-stage Tesla. First of all, from 2012 to 2019, the percentage of Tesla's stock sold short has consistently oscillated around 20%. Plug Power is already under 10% and has moved around 15% for the largest part of the last couple of years. But the biggest difference between the two stocks is probably that the price to sales ratio of Tesla has trended down quickly between 2010 and the end of 2019. Since Plug Power's price to sales ratio is heavily influenced by its recent outlier, let us take a look at a graph comparing the two between 2010 and September of this year:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源的股价发展与早期阶段的特斯拉之间存在一些明显的差异。首先，从2012年到2019年，特斯拉股票被卖空的比例一直在20%左右波动。普拉格能源已经低于 10%，并且在过去几年的大部分时间里一直徘徊在 15% 左右。但两只股票最大的区别可能在于，特斯拉的市销率在2010年至2019年底之间呈快速下降趋势。由于 Plug Power 的市销率受到最近异常值的严重影响，让我们看一下 2010 年至今年 9 月期间两者的比较图表：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d46be5e658002b2f45b8c5ca43559b93\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>Tesla and Plug Power development price to sales ratio between 2010 and September 2021. (source: YCharts)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2010年至2021年9月期间特斯拉和普拉格能源开发价格销售比。（来源：YCharts）</i></blockquote></p><p> These two ratios look to have a lot more in common. But as we can already see, after the end of 2019, Tesla's price to sales ratio went sharply up again. The reason for this was, of course, the almost unprecedented skyrocketing of the Tesla stock starting from the end of 2019. This is illustrated in the following graph of what happened to Tesla shares from September 2019 until now:</p><p><blockquote>这两个比率看起来有更多的共同点。但正如我们已经看到的，2019年底后，特斯拉的市销比再次大幅上升。原因当然是特斯拉股票从2019年底开始几乎前所未有的暴涨。下图说明了从 2019 年 9 月至今特斯拉股票的走势：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d29232b1b3d9ff99e1edb6e4eac33901\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>Development of Tesla share price, short interest, and price to sales ratio between September 2019 and now. (source: YCharts)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2019年9月至今特斯拉股价、空头权益和市销率的发展。（来源：YCharts）</i></blockquote></p><p> As the stock price of Tesla skyrocketed, the short percentage went down sharply and the PS ratio went up.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉股价暴涨，空头百分比大幅下降，PS比率上升。</blockquote></p><p> The million-dollar question is of course, could this happen to Plug Power as well? Technically, if we look solely at the metrics of Plug compared with the metrics of Tesla just before the stock price exploded, the P/S ratio of Plug is still much too high to expect that the stock could go in the same direction in short order. I also believe that fundamentally, Plug would need to experience some serious growth for the stock to be able to regain its recent upward momentum.</p><p><blockquote>当然，百万美元的问题是，这也会发生在普拉格能源身上吗？从技术上讲，如果我们只看 Plug 的指标与特斯拉在股价爆炸前的指标进行比较，Plug 的市盈率仍然太高，无法指望该股在短期内会朝着相同的方向发展。我还认为，从根本上来说，Plug 需要经历一些严重的增长，该股才能重新获得近期的上涨势头。</blockquote></p><p> Another similarity between Plug and Tesla is that negative earnings surprises have been many at Plug recently, this happened to Tesla as well in 2019. At the time, Tesla's stock price was not negatively impacted by those surprises. Currently, the market seems to shake off Plug Power's results as well, though the stock did drop by more than 50% since last year.</p><p><blockquote>Plug 和特斯拉之间的另一个相似之处是，Plug 最近出现了很多负盈利意外，2019 年特斯拉也发生了这种情况。当时，特斯拉的股价并未受到这些意外的负面影响。目前，市场似乎也摆脱了Plug Power的业绩，尽管该股自去年以来确实下跌了50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Currently, expectations still beat metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>目前，预期仍超出指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Like Tesla, Plug's share price seems to be governed more by growth expectations than by current stock metrics. This<i>could</i>mean that Plug would be able to go in the same direction as Tesla if enough investors remain convinced that their business model is profitable for the future and if growth can be expected to continue. Also, as for Tesla, in the long term, fundamental metrics will need to correspond with their lofty valuations. This means that the companies will need to deliver on their expectations.</p><p><blockquote>与特斯拉一样，Plug 的股价似乎更多地受增长预期而不是当前股票指标的影响。这个<i>可以</i>这意味着，如果有足够多的投资者仍然相信他们的商业模式在未来是有利可图的，并且增长可以持续，那么 Plug 将能够与特斯拉走上相同的方向。此外，至于特斯拉，从长远来看，基本面指标需要与其高估值相匹配。这意味着这些公司需要实现他们的期望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>These are some very large ifs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这些是一些非常大的如果。</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the hydrogen market is different from the EV market. Since the energy density of hydrogen is very high, it will likely be able to compete in markets where batteries still have issues, like long-haul transport. On the other hand, on an energy efficiency level, batteries have some large benefits over hydrogen for smaller transport purposes. On aggregate, I am skeptical about hydrogen being able to be a strong competitor in the EV space, but it will likely play a large role in other modes of transport, as in energy storage.</p><p><blockquote>当然，氢市场与电动汽车市场不同。由于氢的能量密度非常高，它很可能能够在电池仍然存在问题的市场上竞争，例如长途运输。另一方面，在能源效率水平上，对于小型运输目的，电池比氢有一些很大的优势。总体而言，我对氢能否成为电动汽车领域的强有力竞争对手持怀疑态度，但它可能会在其他交通方式（例如能源存储）中发挥重要作用。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Plug Power has been trading like a stock for believers, which shows some strong parallels with Tesla. Theoretically, the stock could follow the same direction as Tesla did, but this is anyone's guess and I believe it would take more growth to continue its upward momentum.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源的交易就像信徒的股票，这与特斯拉有一些强烈的相似之处。理论上，该股可能会遵循与特斯拉相同的方向，但这只是任何人的猜测，我相信需要更多的增长才能继续其上涨势头。</blockquote></p><p> Plug Power is a promising business, but the company had some bad results recently. This did not impact the stock much during the last 2 years. In the short term, the stock price seems to be most impacted by sentiment and not by fundamentals. This makes it a wonderful stock for traders, but as a long-term investor, I am staying on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源是一家很有前途的企业，但该公司最近业绩不佳。这在过去两年中并没有对股票产生太大影响。短期来看，股价似乎受情绪影响最大，而不是基本面。这使得它成为交易者的绝佳股票，但作为一名长期投资者，我持观望态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476789-plug-power-stock-promising-business-parallels-with-tesla\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476789-plug-power-stock-promising-business-parallels-with-tesla","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111088353","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe stock of Plug Power enjoyed some great appreciation during the last years, which seems hard to explain when purely looking at the fundamentals.\nThe stock performance of almost 2,000% over the last 5 years is an illustration of the increased momentum of the hydrogen market.\nPlug Power shows some important parallels with Tesla, on which I will elaborate in this article.\nIf the sentiment can remain positive while growth continues, short-term fundamentals might not matter much.\n\nhttp://www.fotogestoeber.de/iStock via Getty Images\nHow can a company in a niche sector which has continuously burned cash over the years have a market capitalization of over $17B? Plug Power (PLUG) is a pure-play hydrogen company that has yet to run a profit. Still, the stock has returned a total of almost 2,000% over the last 5 years.\nIn this article, I will investigate the promises and expectations behind Plug Power and compare the stock to another stock with large promises: Tesla (TSLA).\nGreat stock performance, but a lofty valuation\nPlug Power has behaved somewhat like a battleground stock during the last couple of years. Ever since the 2014 hydrogen rally, Plug Power has remained a stock that lured investors who believe in the technology, but also attracted quite some short-sellers, judged by its current short interest of almost 10 percent.\nMore recently, the stock has experienced a huge liftoff, most likely fueled by the announcement of the Build Back Better Plan of president Biden. Since then, Plug Power's stock more or less came back to earth again, even though it is still trading at a very high price to sales ratio.\nPlease review the following charts for illustration of these metrics:\nData by YCharts\nPlug Power development of share price, short interest, and price to sales ratio during the last 10 years. (source: YCharts)\nA true story stock\n\n A story stock refers to a company's shares whose value reflects expected outperformance, the culmination of some new innovation, or favorable press coverage, rather than its market value being solely based on fundamentals like assets and income (Source:Investopedia)\n\nA story can be a powerful backbone of stock performance. Though the hydrogen market is still somewhat of a niche, the story of Plug is one of great expectations.\nHydrogen is indeed a promising market. Let us explore the potential benefits and promises of hydrogen:\n\nGreen hydrogen can help to decarbonize multiple sectors in which it is difficult to reduce emissions, like long-haul transport, chemical industry, and iron and steel production.\nGreen hydrogen can contribute to improvements in air quality and energy security.\nHydrogen can be produced using a multitude of sources, such as renewables, nuclear energy, natural gas, oil, and even coal. Transportation can be done using pipelines or in liquefied form. It can be transformed into electricity very easily.\nHydrogen can play an important role in coping with the variable outputs of renewable energy sources. Wind and solar energy output are not always in sync with electricity demand, and hydrogen can be used as a store or energy in times when renewable energy production outpaces demand. These storages can be used in times when renewable energy output is lower than demand, and can be saved for days, weeks, or even months, and can even be transported over long distances if needed.\nClean hydrogen is currently used in an expanding number of projects worldwide, and it seems to be a matter of time before the technology is scaled up and costs are brought down.\nCurrently, hydrogen is mostly used in oil refining processes and for the production of fertilizers. Sectors in which it is still hardly used, like transport, buildings, and power generation seem large untapped markets.\n\nAs such, hydrogen could play an important supporting role in the renewable energy transition, supplying markets that are difficult or impractical to reach for batteries.\nPlug Power has a focused strategy, is already an established business in the hydrogen market, and has a large growing number of commercial relationships. This might mean that the company has the potential to become one of the first pure-play hydrogen companies which could transition from a story stock to a large positive cash flow company.\nThe commercial relationships and collaborations which Plug is undertaking are among the most important future drivers of growth for the company, among which are collaborations with Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF),Phillips66(PSX),Acciona(OTCPK:ACXIF),BAE Systems(OTCPK:BAESF),Baker Hughes(BKR), and Brookfield Renewable(BEP).\nParallels with early-stage Tesla\nI think it is very interesting to compare Plug Power with Tesla. This seems to make sense since they were both one of the largest first movers in big markets: EV for Tesla and hydrogen for Plug. Tesla also was (and might still be) a good example of a story stock, with their large promises of electrifying the automotive sector.\nLet us look at the share price development, short percentage, and PS ratio of Tesla during the period from 2010 to the end of 2019:\nData by YCharts\nTesla's development of share price, short interest, and price to sales ratio between 2010 and the end of 2019. (source: YCharts)\nThere are some noticeable differences between the share price development of Plug Power and an earlier-stage Tesla. First of all, from 2012 to 2019, the percentage of Tesla's stock sold short has consistently oscillated around 20%. Plug Power is already under 10% and has moved around 15% for the largest part of the last couple of years. But the biggest difference between the two stocks is probably that the price to sales ratio of Tesla has trended down quickly between 2010 and the end of 2019. Since Plug Power's price to sales ratio is heavily influenced by its recent outlier, let us take a look at a graph comparing the two between 2010 and September of this year:\nData by YCharts\nTesla and Plug Power development price to sales ratio between 2010 and September 2021. (source: YCharts)\nThese two ratios look to have a lot more in common. But as we can already see, after the end of 2019, Tesla's price to sales ratio went sharply up again. The reason for this was, of course, the almost unprecedented skyrocketing of the Tesla stock starting from the end of 2019. This is illustrated in the following graph of what happened to Tesla shares from September 2019 until now:\nData by YCharts\nDevelopment of Tesla share price, short interest, and price to sales ratio between September 2019 and now. (source: YCharts)\nAs the stock price of Tesla skyrocketed, the short percentage went down sharply and the PS ratio went up.\nThe million-dollar question is of course, could this happen to Plug Power as well? Technically, if we look solely at the metrics of Plug compared with the metrics of Tesla just before the stock price exploded, the P/S ratio of Plug is still much too high to expect that the stock could go in the same direction in short order. I also believe that fundamentally, Plug would need to experience some serious growth for the stock to be able to regain its recent upward momentum.\nAnother similarity between Plug and Tesla is that negative earnings surprises have been many at Plug recently, this happened to Tesla as well in 2019. At the time, Tesla's stock price was not negatively impacted by those surprises. Currently, the market seems to shake off Plug Power's results as well, though the stock did drop by more than 50% since last year.\nCurrently, expectations still beat metrics\nLike Tesla, Plug's share price seems to be governed more by growth expectations than by current stock metrics. Thiscouldmean that Plug would be able to go in the same direction as Tesla if enough investors remain convinced that their business model is profitable for the future and if growth can be expected to continue. Also, as for Tesla, in the long term, fundamental metrics will need to correspond with their lofty valuations. This means that the companies will need to deliver on their expectations.\nThese are some very large ifs.\nOf course, the hydrogen market is different from the EV market. Since the energy density of hydrogen is very high, it will likely be able to compete in markets where batteries still have issues, like long-haul transport. On the other hand, on an energy efficiency level, batteries have some large benefits over hydrogen for smaller transport purposes. On aggregate, I am skeptical about hydrogen being able to be a strong competitor in the EV space, but it will likely play a large role in other modes of transport, as in energy storage.\nPlug Power has been trading like a stock for believers, which shows some strong parallels with Tesla. Theoretically, the stock could follow the same direction as Tesla did, but this is anyone's guess and I believe it would take more growth to continue its upward momentum.\nPlug Power is a promising business, but the company had some bad results recently. This did not impact the stock much during the last 2 years. In the short term, the stock price seems to be most impacted by sentiment and not by fundamentals. This makes it a wonderful stock for traders, but as a long-term investor, I am staying on the sidelines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5426,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/696978060"}
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