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2021-12-24
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SoFi Technologies: This Clearly Is A Bubble Valuation<blockquote>SoFi Technologies：这显然是一个泡沫估值</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":698132821,"tweetId":"698132821","gmtCreate":1640315558632,"gmtModify":1640315997992,"author":{"id":3576321881416814,"idStr":"3576321881416814","authorId":3576321881416814,"authorIdStr":"3576321881416814","name":"AxlChoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07cda5bcab8b688f3844cf237bffa55f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good</p></body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698132821","repostId":1173256947,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173256947","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640314716,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1173256947?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 10:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SoFi Technologies: This Clearly Is A Bubble Valuation<blockquote>SoFi Technologies：这显然是一个泡沫估值</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173256947","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDuring the pandemic, SoFi had an increase in customers, but growth is slowing.\nSoFi is not ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>During the pandemic, SoFi had an increase in customers, but growth is slowing.</li> <li>SoFi is not profitable, only on an adjusted EBITDA basis.</li> <li>The multiple placed on the company’s growth is unsustainable.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4546ff26ffc917fc02f1e9bf03bff9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>courtneyk/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在疫情期间，SoFi的客户有所增加，但增长正在放缓。</li><li>SoFi 仅在调整后的 EBITDA 基础上盈利。</li><li>公司增长的倍数是不可持续的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>courtneyk/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>SoFi Technologies, Inc.(SOFI)</b> has entered bubble territory due to overconfidence and excessive market euphoria regarding financial technology companies. Despite the fact that SoFi is successfully expanding its client base, the company has no real earnings, and the stock is highly overvalued.</p><p><blockquote><b>SoFi 技术公司 (SOFI)</b>由于市场对金融科技公司的过度信心和过度兴奋，已进入泡沫领域。尽管 SoFi 成功扩大了客户群，但该公司没有实际盈利，而且股票被严重高估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Growth' Alone Isn't Enough To Make A Stock Purchase</b></p><p><blockquote><b>仅仅“增长”不足以购买股票</b></blockquote></p><p> SoFi's user base approached 3 million in 3Q21, representing a 96% YoY growth rate. The increase in customers, on the other hand, is slowing. Most recently, in 2021, the company's growth has slowed, with YoY growth rates falling below 100%, possibly indicating that SoFi's period of rapid growth is coming to an end. As the pandemic fades, SoFi's customer and revenue growth may slow further.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi在2021年第三季度的用户群接近300万，同比增长率达96%。另一方面，客户的增长正在放缓。最近，在2021年，该公司的增长有所放缓，同比增长率降至100%以下，这可能表明SoFi的快速增长期即将结束。随着疫情的消退，SoFi 的客户和收入增长可能会进一步放缓。</blockquote></p><p> This is not to say that SoFi's achievements in terms of stellar platform growth should be overlooked. SoFi's business model was set on fire by Covid-19, but the risks to growth have increased significantly in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说SoFi在恒星平台增长方面的成就应该被忽视。SoFi 的商业模式因 Covid-19 而受到抨击，但 2021 年增长风险显着增加。</blockquote></p><p> But first, consider SoFi's phenomenal user growth over the last two years.</p><p><blockquote>但首先，考虑一下SoFi在过去两年中惊人的用户增长。</blockquote></p><p> Total users increased from less than a million at the end of 2019, just before the pandemic, to 2.9 million in the most recent quarter. Simultaneously, the number of SoFi products increased from 1.2 million in 4Q19 to 4.3 million in 3Q21, demonstrating that SoFi's growth has been directly related to the number of financial products available on its online banking platform, which offers student loan refinancing, private student loans, auto loan refinance, personal loans, mortgage and home loans, insurance products, and investments.</p><p><blockquote>用户总数从疫情爆发前的2019年底不到100万增加到最近一个季度的290万。与此同时，SoFi产品数量从2019年第四季度的120万件增加到2021年第三季度的430万件，这表明SoFi的增长与其网上银行平台上提供的金融产品数量直接相关，该平台提供学生贷款再融资、私人学生贷款、汽车贷款再融资、个人贷款、抵押贷款和住房贷款、保险产品和投资。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad79d09a4b7ea546136d9b3e1d3cc9c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SoFi Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SoFi公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SoFi's user and product growth resulted in an increase in revenue as well: On a rolling four-quarter basis, the company earned $443 million in net revenues in 2019, a figure that has since risen to $871 million in 3Q21.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi 的用户和产品增长也导致了收入的增长：按四个季度的滚动计算，该公司 2019 年的净收入为 4.43 亿美元，此后这一数字在2021年第三季度上升到 8.71 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No Profitability, Unless You Look At Adjusted EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>除非你看调整后的 EBITDA，否则没有盈利能力</b></blockquote></p><p> The increase in users and revenues appears to be enticing, but it only tells half the story. SoFi doesn't have any real profits unless you look at adjusted EBITDA, which I believe is a problem. Adjusted EBITDA is not a useful figure to use to evaluate operational performance because it is one of those gimmicky accounting figures that can be manipulated to show profits where none exist.</p><p><blockquote>用户和收入的增长看起来很诱人，但这只说明了故事的一半。除非你看调整后的 EBITDA，否则 SoFi 没有任何实际利润，我认为这是一个问题。调整后的 EBITDA 不是一个用于评估运营业绩的有用数字，因为它是那些可以被操纵以显示不存在利润的花哨会计数字之一。</blockquote></p><p> SoFi earned just $37 million in adjusted EBITDA on $912 million in revenue over the previous four quarters, from 2Q20 to 3Q21. SoFi's adjusted EBITDA increased in 2020, but the level of profitability is still far below what is required to provide investors with competitive capital returns.</p><p><blockquote>从2020年第二季度到2021年第三季度，SoFi 在过去四个季度的收入为 9.12 亿美元，调整后 EBITDA 仅获得 3700 万美元。SoFi的调整后EBITDA在2020年有所增长，但盈利水平仍远低于为投资者提供有竞争力的资本回报所需的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd68643c05ce397e0b47d99a98306b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SoFi Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SoFi公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to SoFi's definition of adjusted EBITDA, the company can boost its 'profit figure' in a variety of ways:</p><p><blockquote>根据 SoFi 对调整后 EBITDA 的定义，该公司可以通过多种方式提高其“利润数字”：</blockquote></p><p> Adjusted EBITDA is defined as net income (loss), adjusted to exclude: (i) corporate borrowing-based interest expense, (ii) income taxes, (iii) depreciation and amortization, (iv) stock-based expense (inclusive of equity-based payments to non-employees), (v) impairment expense (inclusive of goodwill impairment and property, equipment and software abandonments), (vi) transaction-related expenses, (vii) warrant fair value adjustments, and (viii) fair value changes in servicing rights and residual interests classified as debt due to valuation assumptions. Because companies have so many options for classifying or inflating expenses, \"adjusted EBITDA\" is not a figure to rely on to judge operational performance. SoFi's net-loss-to-adjusted EBITDA reconciliation for the most recent quarter and for 2021, YTD, is shown below. It's worth noting that achieving a positive adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in 2021 YTD would require $399 million in 'adjustments'. Adjustments included a whopping $162 million for stock-based compensation. SoFi's accumulated business losses are $373 million if no adjustments are made. A $373 million loss on adjusted net revenues of $730 million is not insignificant; the platform is highly unprofitable.</p><p><blockquote>调整后 EBITDA 定义为净利润（亏损），调整后不包括：(i) 基于公司借款的利息支出，(ii) 所得税，(iii) 折旧和摊销，(iv) 基于股票的支出（包括向非员工支付的股权），(v) 减值费用（包括商誉减值以及财产、设备和软件废弃），(vi) 交易相关费用，(vii) 认股权证公允价值调整，以及 (viii) 服务权和剩余权益的公允价值变动由于估值假设而分类为债务。由于公司有很多对费用进行分类或夸大的选择，因此“调整后 EBITDA”不是一个可以依赖的数字来判断运营业绩。SoFi 最近一个季度和 2021 年（年初至今）的净亏损与调整后 EBITDA 对账如下所示。值得注意的是，要在 2021 年年初至今实现 2600 万美元的正调整后 EBITDA，需要 3.99 亿美元的“调整”。调整包括高达 1.62 亿美元的股票薪酬。如果不进行调整，SoFi的累计业务亏损为3.73亿美元。调整后净收入为 7.3 亿美元，亏损 3.73 亿美元并非微不足道；该平台高度无利可图。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> SoFi adjusts net revenues to account for changes in the valuation of certain assets, such as servicing rights, to arrive at a figure known as adjusted net revenues. Because SoFi makes a lot of adjustments, it can show a profit on an adjusted EBITDA basis even though its losses are massive. Of course, SoFi's business lost money in 2020 and the previous year as well.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi 调整净收入，以考虑某些资产（例如服务权）估值的变化，从而得出称为调整后净收入的数字。由于 SoFi 进行了大量调整，因此即使亏损巨大，它也可以在调整后的 EBITDA 基础上显示利润。当然，SoFi的业务在2020年和前一年也是亏损的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb4a265d20c33088e3f3509dba6a594\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SoFi Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SoFi公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The 4Q21 outlook assumes $2 - $5 million in adjusted EBITDA and $272 - $282 million in adjusted net revenues. The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to range between 1% and 2%. SoFi will lose money again on a net loss basis. It will almost certainly continue to lose money next year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第四季度展望假设调整后 EBITDA 为 2 至 500 万美元，调整后净收入为 2.72 至 2.82 亿美元。调整后的 EBITDA 利润率预计在 1% 至 2% 之间。SoFi将在净亏损的基础上再次亏损。明年几乎肯定会继续亏损。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aacbbe368974d446e280811897f30d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SoFi Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SoFi公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>So, What Do Sofi's High Multiples Get You?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，Sofi的高倍数给你带来了什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> It is undeniable that SoFi's business is expanding. What bothers me is the exorbitant sales multiple that this \"growth stock\" displays on the board. If you want to be a part of SoFi's growth story, you'll have to pay 20 times sales, even though the stock has already lost 40% of its value in the last month.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，SoFi的业务正在扩大。困扰我的是这只“成长股”在板上显示的过高的销售倍数。如果你想成为 SoFi 增长故事的一部分，你必须支付 20 倍的销售额，尽管该股在上个月已经损失了 40% 的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the fact that SoFi is increasing its user base and revenue, investors must consider whether the price they pay for this expansion is justified. Today, many investors will buy any stock that makes even a hazy promise of future growth. In the case of this company, SoFi, growth is priced at nosebleed levels, which significantly reduces the stock's attractiveness.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SoFi正在增加其用户群和收入，但投资者必须考虑他们为这种扩张付出的代价是否合理。如今，许多投资者会购买任何对未来增长做出模糊承诺的股票。就 SoFi 公司而言，growth 的定价高得离谱，这大大降低了该股的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27302385807fe51b83b6fd15e4bae28d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>My Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的结论</b></blockquote></p><p> SoFi is one of those growth stocks that has a wildly inflated sales multiple simply because it grew so quickly during the pandemic. However, SoFi's high multiple does not appear to be sustainable, and a significant contraction can be expected once growth rates slow, which is very likely. Paying 20 times sales for a company with no real profits is illogical, and the inflated valuation suggests that SoFi is in bubble territory.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi 是那些销售倍数大幅膨胀的成长型股票之一，仅仅是因为它在疫情期间增长如此之快。然而，SoFi 的高市盈率似乎不可持续，一旦增长率放缓，预计会出现大幅收缩，这是很有可能的。为一家没有实际利润的公司支付20倍销售额是不合逻辑的，虚高的估值表明SoFi处于泡沫领域。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SoFi Technologies: This Clearly Is A Bubble Valuation<blockquote>SoFi Technologies：这显然是一个泡沫估值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoFi Technologies: This Clearly Is A Bubble Valuation<blockquote>SoFi Technologies：这显然是一个泡沫估值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 10:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>During the pandemic, SoFi had an increase in customers, but growth is slowing.</li> <li>SoFi is not profitable, only on an adjusted EBITDA basis.</li> <li>The multiple placed on the company’s growth is unsustainable.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4546ff26ffc917fc02f1e9bf03bff9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>courtneyk/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在疫情期间，SoFi的客户有所增加，但增长正在放缓。</li><li>SoFi 仅在调整后的 EBITDA 基础上盈利。</li><li>公司增长的倍数是不可持续的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>courtneyk/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>SoFi Technologies, Inc.(SOFI)</b> has entered bubble territory due to overconfidence and excessive market euphoria regarding financial technology companies. Despite the fact that SoFi is successfully expanding its client base, the company has no real earnings, and the stock is highly overvalued.</p><p><blockquote><b>SoFi 技术公司 (SOFI)</b>由于市场对金融科技公司的过度信心和过度兴奋，已进入泡沫领域。尽管 SoFi 成功扩大了客户群，但该公司没有实际盈利，而且股票被严重高估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Growth' Alone Isn't Enough To Make A Stock Purchase</b></p><p><blockquote><b>仅仅“增长”不足以购买股票</b></blockquote></p><p> SoFi's user base approached 3 million in 3Q21, representing a 96% YoY growth rate. The increase in customers, on the other hand, is slowing. Most recently, in 2021, the company's growth has slowed, with YoY growth rates falling below 100%, possibly indicating that SoFi's period of rapid growth is coming to an end. As the pandemic fades, SoFi's customer and revenue growth may slow further.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi在2021年第三季度的用户群接近300万，同比增长率达96%。另一方面，客户的增长正在放缓。最近，在2021年，该公司的增长有所放缓，同比增长率降至100%以下，这可能表明SoFi的快速增长期即将结束。随着疫情的消退，SoFi 的客户和收入增长可能会进一步放缓。</blockquote></p><p> This is not to say that SoFi's achievements in terms of stellar platform growth should be overlooked. SoFi's business model was set on fire by Covid-19, but the risks to growth have increased significantly in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说SoFi在恒星平台增长方面的成就应该被忽视。SoFi 的商业模式因 Covid-19 而受到抨击，但 2021 年增长风险显着增加。</blockquote></p><p> But first, consider SoFi's phenomenal user growth over the last two years.</p><p><blockquote>但首先，考虑一下SoFi在过去两年中惊人的用户增长。</blockquote></p><p> Total users increased from less than a million at the end of 2019, just before the pandemic, to 2.9 million in the most recent quarter. Simultaneously, the number of SoFi products increased from 1.2 million in 4Q19 to 4.3 million in 3Q21, demonstrating that SoFi's growth has been directly related to the number of financial products available on its online banking platform, which offers student loan refinancing, private student loans, auto loan refinance, personal loans, mortgage and home loans, insurance products, and investments.</p><p><blockquote>用户总数从疫情爆发前的2019年底不到100万增加到最近一个季度的290万。与此同时，SoFi产品数量从2019年第四季度的120万件增加到2021年第三季度的430万件，这表明SoFi的增长与其网上银行平台上提供的金融产品数量直接相关，该平台提供学生贷款再融资、私人学生贷款、汽车贷款再融资、个人贷款、抵押贷款和住房贷款、保险产品和投资。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad79d09a4b7ea546136d9b3e1d3cc9c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SoFi Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SoFi公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SoFi's user and product growth resulted in an increase in revenue as well: On a rolling four-quarter basis, the company earned $443 million in net revenues in 2019, a figure that has since risen to $871 million in 3Q21.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi 的用户和产品增长也导致了收入的增长：按四个季度的滚动计算，该公司 2019 年的净收入为 4.43 亿美元，此后这一数字在2021年第三季度上升到 8.71 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No Profitability, Unless You Look At Adjusted EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>除非你看调整后的 EBITDA，否则没有盈利能力</b></blockquote></p><p> The increase in users and revenues appears to be enticing, but it only tells half the story. SoFi doesn't have any real profits unless you look at adjusted EBITDA, which I believe is a problem. Adjusted EBITDA is not a useful figure to use to evaluate operational performance because it is one of those gimmicky accounting figures that can be manipulated to show profits where none exist.</p><p><blockquote>用户和收入的增长看起来很诱人，但这只说明了故事的一半。除非你看调整后的 EBITDA，否则 SoFi 没有任何实际利润，我认为这是一个问题。调整后的 EBITDA 不是一个用于评估运营业绩的有用数字，因为它是那些可以被操纵以显示不存在利润的花哨会计数字之一。</blockquote></p><p> SoFi earned just $37 million in adjusted EBITDA on $912 million in revenue over the previous four quarters, from 2Q20 to 3Q21. SoFi's adjusted EBITDA increased in 2020, but the level of profitability is still far below what is required to provide investors with competitive capital returns.</p><p><blockquote>从2020年第二季度到2021年第三季度，SoFi 在过去四个季度的收入为 9.12 亿美元，调整后 EBITDA 仅获得 3700 万美元。SoFi的调整后EBITDA在2020年有所增长，但盈利水平仍远低于为投资者提供有竞争力的资本回报所需的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cd68643c05ce397e0b47d99a98306b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SoFi Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SoFi公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to SoFi's definition of adjusted EBITDA, the company can boost its 'profit figure' in a variety of ways:</p><p><blockquote>根据 SoFi 对调整后 EBITDA 的定义，该公司可以通过多种方式提高其“利润数字”：</blockquote></p><p> Adjusted EBITDA is defined as net income (loss), adjusted to exclude: (i) corporate borrowing-based interest expense, (ii) income taxes, (iii) depreciation and amortization, (iv) stock-based expense (inclusive of equity-based payments to non-employees), (v) impairment expense (inclusive of goodwill impairment and property, equipment and software abandonments), (vi) transaction-related expenses, (vii) warrant fair value adjustments, and (viii) fair value changes in servicing rights and residual interests classified as debt due to valuation assumptions. Because companies have so many options for classifying or inflating expenses, \"adjusted EBITDA\" is not a figure to rely on to judge operational performance. SoFi's net-loss-to-adjusted EBITDA reconciliation for the most recent quarter and for 2021, YTD, is shown below. It's worth noting that achieving a positive adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in 2021 YTD would require $399 million in 'adjustments'. Adjustments included a whopping $162 million for stock-based compensation. SoFi's accumulated business losses are $373 million if no adjustments are made. A $373 million loss on adjusted net revenues of $730 million is not insignificant; the platform is highly unprofitable.</p><p><blockquote>调整后 EBITDA 定义为净利润（亏损），调整后不包括：(i) 基于公司借款的利息支出，(ii) 所得税，(iii) 折旧和摊销，(iv) 基于股票的支出（包括向非员工支付的股权），(v) 减值费用（包括商誉减值以及财产、设备和软件废弃），(vi) 交易相关费用，(vii) 认股权证公允价值调整，以及 (viii) 服务权和剩余权益的公允价值变动由于估值假设而分类为债务。由于公司有很多对费用进行分类或夸大的选择，因此“调整后 EBITDA”不是一个可以依赖的数字来判断运营业绩。SoFi 最近一个季度和 2021 年（年初至今）的净亏损与调整后 EBITDA 对账如下所示。值得注意的是，要在 2021 年年初至今实现 2600 万美元的正调整后 EBITDA，需要 3.99 亿美元的“调整”。调整包括高达 1.62 亿美元的股票薪酬。如果不进行调整，SoFi的累计业务亏损为3.73亿美元。调整后净收入为 7.3 亿美元，亏损 3.73 亿美元并非微不足道；该平台高度无利可图。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> SoFi adjusts net revenues to account for changes in the valuation of certain assets, such as servicing rights, to arrive at a figure known as adjusted net revenues. Because SoFi makes a lot of adjustments, it can show a profit on an adjusted EBITDA basis even though its losses are massive. Of course, SoFi's business lost money in 2020 and the previous year as well.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi 调整净收入，以考虑某些资产（例如服务权）估值的变化，从而得出称为调整后净收入的数字。由于 SoFi 进行了大量调整，因此即使亏损巨大，它也可以在调整后的 EBITDA 基础上显示利润。当然，SoFi的业务在2020年和前一年也是亏损的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb4a265d20c33088e3f3509dba6a594\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SoFi Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SoFi公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The 4Q21 outlook assumes $2 - $5 million in adjusted EBITDA and $272 - $282 million in adjusted net revenues. The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to range between 1% and 2%. SoFi will lose money again on a net loss basis. It will almost certainly continue to lose money next year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第四季度展望假设调整后 EBITDA 为 2 至 500 万美元，调整后净收入为 2.72 至 2.82 亿美元。调整后的 EBITDA 利润率预计在 1% 至 2% 之间。SoFi将在净亏损的基础上再次亏损。明年几乎肯定会继续亏损。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aacbbe368974d446e280811897f30d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SoFi Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SoFi公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>So, What Do Sofi's High Multiples Get You?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，Sofi的高倍数给你带来了什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> It is undeniable that SoFi's business is expanding. What bothers me is the exorbitant sales multiple that this \"growth stock\" displays on the board. If you want to be a part of SoFi's growth story, you'll have to pay 20 times sales, even though the stock has already lost 40% of its value in the last month.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，SoFi的业务正在扩大。困扰我的是这只“成长股”在板上显示的过高的销售倍数。如果你想成为 SoFi 增长故事的一部分，你必须支付 20 倍的销售额，尽管该股在上个月已经损失了 40% 的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the fact that SoFi is increasing its user base and revenue, investors must consider whether the price they pay for this expansion is justified. Today, many investors will buy any stock that makes even a hazy promise of future growth. In the case of this company, SoFi, growth is priced at nosebleed levels, which significantly reduces the stock's attractiveness.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SoFi正在增加其用户群和收入，但投资者必须考虑他们为这种扩张付出的代价是否合理。如今，许多投资者会购买任何对未来增长做出模糊承诺的股票。就 SoFi 公司而言，growth 的定价高得离谱，这大大降低了该股的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27302385807fe51b83b6fd15e4bae28d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>My Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的结论</b></blockquote></p><p> SoFi is one of those growth stocks that has a wildly inflated sales multiple simply because it grew so quickly during the pandemic. However, SoFi's high multiple does not appear to be sustainable, and a significant contraction can be expected once growth rates slow, which is very likely. Paying 20 times sales for a company with no real profits is illogical, and the inflated valuation suggests that SoFi is in bubble territory.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi 是那些销售倍数大幅膨胀的成长型股票之一，仅仅是因为它在疫情期间增长如此之快。然而，SoFi 的高市盈率似乎不可持续，一旦增长率放缓，预计会出现大幅收缩，这是很有可能的。为一家没有实际利润的公司支付20倍销售额是不合逻辑的，虚高的估值表明SoFi处于泡沫领域。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476580-sofi-this-clearly-is-a-bubble-valuation\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476580-sofi-this-clearly-is-a-bubble-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173256947","content_text":"Summary\n\nDuring the pandemic, SoFi had an increase in customers, but growth is slowing.\nSoFi is not profitable, only on an adjusted EBITDA basis.\nThe multiple placed on the company’s growth is unsustainable.\n\ncourtneyk/E+ via Getty Images\nSoFi Technologies, Inc.(SOFI) has entered bubble territory due to overconfidence and excessive market euphoria regarding financial technology companies. Despite the fact that SoFi is successfully expanding its client base, the company has no real earnings, and the stock is highly overvalued.\n'Growth' Alone Isn't Enough To Make A Stock Purchase\nSoFi's user base approached 3 million in 3Q21, representing a 96% YoY growth rate. The increase in customers, on the other hand, is slowing. Most recently, in 2021, the company's growth has slowed, with YoY growth rates falling below 100%, possibly indicating that SoFi's period of rapid growth is coming to an end. As the pandemic fades, SoFi's customer and revenue growth may slow further.\nThis is not to say that SoFi's achievements in terms of stellar platform growth should be overlooked. SoFi's business model was set on fire by Covid-19, but the risks to growth have increased significantly in 2021.\nBut first, consider SoFi's phenomenal user growth over the last two years.\nTotal users increased from less than a million at the end of 2019, just before the pandemic, to 2.9 million in the most recent quarter. Simultaneously, the number of SoFi products increased from 1.2 million in 4Q19 to 4.3 million in 3Q21, demonstrating that SoFi's growth has been directly related to the number of financial products available on its online banking platform, which offers student loan refinancing, private student loans, auto loan refinance, personal loans, mortgage and home loans, insurance products, and investments.\nSource: SoFi Company\nSoFi's user and product growth resulted in an increase in revenue as well: On a rolling four-quarter basis, the company earned $443 million in net revenues in 2019, a figure that has since risen to $871 million in 3Q21.\nNo Profitability, Unless You Look At Adjusted EBITDA\nThe increase in users and revenues appears to be enticing, but it only tells half the story. SoFi doesn't have any real profits unless you look at adjusted EBITDA, which I believe is a problem. Adjusted EBITDA is not a useful figure to use to evaluate operational performance because it is one of those gimmicky accounting figures that can be manipulated to show profits where none exist.\nSoFi earned just $37 million in adjusted EBITDA on $912 million in revenue over the previous four quarters, from 2Q20 to 3Q21. SoFi's adjusted EBITDA increased in 2020, but the level of profitability is still far below what is required to provide investors with competitive capital returns.\nSource: SoFi Company\nAccording to SoFi's definition of adjusted EBITDA, the company can boost its 'profit figure' in a variety of ways:\n\n Adjusted EBITDA is defined as net income (loss), adjusted to exclude: (i) corporate borrowing-based interest expense, (ii) income taxes, (iii) depreciation and amortization, (iv) stock-based expense (inclusive of equity-based payments to non-employees), (v) impairment expense (inclusive of goodwill impairment and property, equipment and software abandonments), (vi) transaction-related expenses, (vii) warrant fair value adjustments, and (viii) fair value changes in servicing rights and residual interests classified as debt due to valuation assumptions.\n\nBecause companies have so many options for classifying or inflating expenses, \"adjusted EBITDA\" is not a figure to rely on to judge operational performance. SoFi's net-loss-to-adjusted EBITDA reconciliation for the most recent quarter and for 2021, YTD, is shown below. It's worth noting that achieving a positive adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in 2021 YTD would require $399 million in 'adjustments'. Adjustments included a whopping $162 million for stock-based compensation. SoFi's accumulated business losses are $373 million if no adjustments are made. A $373 million loss on adjusted net revenues of $730 million is not insignificant; the platform is highly unprofitable.\nSoFi adjusts net revenues to account for changes in the valuation of certain assets, such as servicing rights, to arrive at a figure known as adjusted net revenues. Because SoFi makes a lot of adjustments, it can show a profit on an adjusted EBITDA basis even though its losses are massive. Of course, SoFi's business lost money in 2020 and the previous year as well.\nSource: SoFi Company\nThe 4Q21 outlook assumes $2 - $5 million in adjusted EBITDA and $272 - $282 million in adjusted net revenues. The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to range between 1% and 2%. SoFi will lose money again on a net loss basis. It will almost certainly continue to lose money next year.\nSource: SoFi Company\nSo, What Do Sofi's High Multiples Get You?\nIt is undeniable that SoFi's business is expanding. What bothers me is the exorbitant sales multiple that this \"growth stock\" displays on the board. If you want to be a part of SoFi's growth story, you'll have to pay 20 times sales, even though the stock has already lost 40% of its value in the last month.\nDespite the fact that SoFi is increasing its user base and revenue, investors must consider whether the price they pay for this expansion is justified. Today, many investors will buy any stock that makes even a hazy promise of future growth. In the case of this company, SoFi, growth is priced at nosebleed levels, which significantly reduces the stock's attractiveness.\nData by YCharts\nMy Conclusion\nSoFi is one of those growth stocks that has a wildly inflated sales multiple simply because it grew so quickly during the pandemic. However, SoFi's high multiple does not appear to be sustainable, and a significant contraction can be expected once growth rates slow, which is very likely. Paying 20 times sales for a company with no real profits is illogical, and the inflated valuation suggests that SoFi is in bubble territory.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOFI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4057,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/698132821"}
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