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2021-12-24

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Block, Formerly Square, May Have Further To Fall<blockquote>街区（以前是方形的）可能会进一步下跌</blockquote>

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Thanks","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698142780","repostId":1181278306,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181278306","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640323826,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1181278306?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 13:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Block, Formerly Square, May Have Further To Fall<blockquote>街区（以前是方形的）可能会进一步下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181278306","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBlock faces both macro and comparable headwinds in 2022 as peers look more attractive.\nThe ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Block faces both macro and comparable headwinds in 2022 as peers look more attractive.</li> <li>The technical chart shows that a short-term rebound attempt has failed to materialize.</li> <li>Options traders see the stock trading below $160 through March.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b7f19058b1e0a0f2f27c36a4f25fb5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">simonkr/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>随着同行看起来更具吸引力，Block 在 2022 年面临宏观和类似的阻力。</li><li>技术图表显示短期反弹尝试未能实现。</li><li>期权交易员预计整个 3 月份该股交易价格将低于 160 美元。</li></ul>simonkr/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Square(NYSE:SQ)&nbsp;has changed its name to Block, and thus far, it hasn't helped benefit the stock. The stock has suffered since peaking in early August, dropping by nearly 45%. The odds are climbing that the performance doesn't get any better either, as the Fed turns its attention to inflation in 2022 and more hawkish monetary policy. That will likely lead to many of these high flyers struggling next year as multiple compression and valuations drop. Options traders are betting the stock doesn't rebound anytime soon.<blockquote>Square（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）已更名为 Block，但到目前为止，这并没有帮助该股受益。自 8 月初见顶以来，该股一直遭受重创，下跌近 45%。随着美联储将注意力转向 2022 年通胀和更加鹰派的货币政策，业绩也不会好转的可能性正在攀升。随着多重压缩和估值下降，这可能会导致许多雄心勃勃的人明年陷入困境。期权交易员押注该股不会很快反弹。</blockquote> Valuations Matter<blockquote>估值很重要</blockquote> Block is not cheap by any stretch of the imagination. Trading at 43.2 times 2023 EV/EBITDA and 57.5 times 2023 earnings estimates. The only reason the stock looks reasonably valued on a price-to-sales metric of 3.2 times 2023 forecast has to do with how it books its bitcoin revenue.<blockquote>无论你怎么想象，区块都不便宜。交易价格是 2023 年 EV/EBITDA 的 43.2 倍，是 2023 年盈利预期的 57.5 倍。该股在市销率指标为 2023 年预测的 3.2 倍时看起来合理的唯一原因是其比特币收入的记录方式。</blockquote> Growth in earnings and EBITDA is forecast to take a significant hit next year, with EBITDA rising by 10.8% to $1.08 billion and earnings climbing by 7.5% to $1.84. If everything goes right, analysts then see earnings climbing by 49.5% in 2023 to $2.76 per share, and EBITDA rising by 56.9% in 2023 to $1.69 billion.<blockquote>预计明年盈利和 EBITDA 的增长将受到重大打击，EBITDA 增长 10.8% 至 10.8 亿美元，盈利增长 7.5% 至 1.84 美元。如果一切顺利，分析师预计 2023 年每股收益将增长 49.5%，达到 2.76 美元，2023 年 EBITDA 将增长 56.9%，达到 16.9 亿美元。</blockquote> It will have to go right for Block because the growth forecast in 2022 comes nowhere close to what is needed to sustain the multiples on Block currently. In an environment where multiples are likely to compress, 2022 will need to be a year that provides plenty of upside reports and guidance. Especially when peer PayPal(NASDAQ:PYPL)trades with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 19.9 times 2023 estimates and 27.3 times 2023 earnings. Not only that but PayPal is expected to grow its EBITDA in 2022 by 15.5% and earnings by 14.4% in 2022. So the comparables favor PayPal over Block both in growth and valuations.<blockquote>对于 Block 来说，情况必须一切顺利，因为 2022 年的增长预测远未达到维持 Block 目前市盈率所需的水平。在市盈率可能会压缩的环境下，2022 年需要提供大量上行报告和指导。尤其是当同行PayPal（纳斯达克股票代码：PYPL）的 EV/EBITDA 倍数是 2023 年预期的 19.9 倍，是 2023 年收益的 27.3 倍时。不仅如此，PayPal预计 2022 年 EBITDA 将增长 15.5%，2022 年盈利将增长 14.4%。因此，无论是在增长还是估值方面，可比公司都更青睐PayPal而不是布洛克。</blockquote> Betting Shares Fall Further<blockquote>博彩股进一步下跌</blockquote> On Dec. 21, the open interest for the March 18 $170 calls increased by roughly 4700 contracts, while the $170 puts jumped by around 4,300 contracts. The data shows that 5,000 contracts call contracts were sold on the BID for $13.15, while 5,000 of the puts contracts were bought on the ASK for $22.35. In total, the trader paid around $8.20 per contract to bet that Block will be trading below $170 by the middle of March. The trader would need Blocks stock to be below $161.80 by the expiration to earn a profit.<blockquote>12月21日，3月18日170美元评级的未平仓合约增加了约4700份合约，而170美元看跌期权增加了约4300份合约。数据显示，5000份看涨期权合约以13.15美元的买入价卖出，而5000份看跌期权合约以22.35美元的卖出价买入。交易员总共为每份合约支付了约 8.20 美元，押注该区块到 3 月中旬的交易价格将低于 170 美元。交易者需要Blocks股票在到期前低于161.80美元才能获利。</blockquote> Short-Term Rally<blockquote>短期反弹</blockquote> The technical chart shows that Block tried to break out of a falling wedge pattern. To this point, it has been unable to mount a meaningful rebound. If the stock should fall below support at $154 it is likely to lead to a bigger drop, potentially back to $133, a price the stock has seen since September 2020.<blockquote>技术图表显示，布洛克试图突破下跌楔形形态。到目前为止，它还未能实现有意义的反弹。如果该股跌破 154 美元的支撑位，可能会导致更大的跌幅，可能会回到 133 美元，这是该股自 2020 年 9 月以来的价格。</blockquote> The relative strength index is attempting to flash a bullish divergence with the stock making a lower low and the RSI making a higher low. If the stock is able to advance beyond $175 it is likely to move all the way back to $199.<blockquote>相对强弱指数正试图闪现看涨背离，股票低点较低，RSI低点较高。如果该股能够突破 175 美元，则可能会一路回到 199 美元。</blockquote> However, given the shifting macro backdrop and the lack of the stocks ability to participate in this week's rally doesn't support the idea of the stock rising anytime soon.<blockquote>然而，鉴于宏观背景的变化以及该股缺乏参与本周反弹的能力，并不支持该股很快上涨的想法。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2fd84000c84d301e6ceba53c4ecc86e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Block will have a much more challenging year, both from comparable earnings and valuation standpoint. On top of that market, the dynamics are changing. Which likely means the stocks that have been favored over the past 18 months may now be turning out of favor as valuations begin to matter. Based on that, Block may still have a lot further to fall by the time this is all said and done.<blockquote>从可比盈利和估值的角度来看，布洛克今年将面临更具挑战性的一年。在这个市场之上，动态正在发生变化。这可能意味着，随着估值开始变得重要，过去 18 个月受到青睐的股票现在可能会失去青睐。基于此，到这些都说了，做了，布洛克可能还有很长的路要走。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Block, Formerly Square, May Have Further To Fall<blockquote>街区（以前是方形的）可能会进一步下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlock, Formerly Square, May Have Further To Fall<blockquote>街区（以前是方形的）可能会进一步下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-24 13:30\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Block faces both macro and comparable headwinds in 2022 as peers look more attractive.</li> <li>The technical chart shows that a short-term rebound attempt has failed to materialize.</li> <li>Options traders see the stock trading below $160 through March.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b7f19058b1e0a0f2f27c36a4f25fb5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">simonkr/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>随着同行看起来更具吸引力，Block 在 2022 年面临宏观和类似的阻力。</li><li>技术图表显示短期反弹尝试未能实现。</li><li>期权交易员预计整个 3 月份该股交易价格将低于 160 美元。</li></ul>simonkr/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Square(NYSE:SQ)&nbsp;has changed its name to Block, and thus far, it hasn't helped benefit the stock. The stock has suffered since peaking in early August, dropping by nearly 45%. The odds are climbing that the performance doesn't get any better either, as the Fed turns its attention to inflation in 2022 and more hawkish monetary policy. That will likely lead to many of these high flyers struggling next year as multiple compression and valuations drop. Options traders are betting the stock doesn't rebound anytime soon.<blockquote>Square（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）已更名为 Block，但到目前为止，这并没有帮助该股受益。自 8 月初见顶以来，该股一直遭受重创，下跌近 45%。随着美联储将注意力转向 2022 年通胀和更加鹰派的货币政策，业绩也不会好转的可能性正在攀升。随着多重压缩和估值下降，这可能会导致许多雄心勃勃的人明年陷入困境。期权交易员押注该股不会很快反弹。</blockquote> Valuations Matter<blockquote>估值很重要</blockquote> Block is not cheap by any stretch of the imagination. Trading at 43.2 times 2023 EV/EBITDA and 57.5 times 2023 earnings estimates. The only reason the stock looks reasonably valued on a price-to-sales metric of 3.2 times 2023 forecast has to do with how it books its bitcoin revenue.<blockquote>无论你怎么想象，区块都不便宜。交易价格是 2023 年 EV/EBITDA 的 43.2 倍，是 2023 年盈利预期的 57.5 倍。该股在市销率指标为 2023 年预测的 3.2 倍时看起来合理的唯一原因是其比特币收入的记录方式。</blockquote> Growth in earnings and EBITDA is forecast to take a significant hit next year, with EBITDA rising by 10.8% to $1.08 billion and earnings climbing by 7.5% to $1.84. If everything goes right, analysts then see earnings climbing by 49.5% in 2023 to $2.76 per share, and EBITDA rising by 56.9% in 2023 to $1.69 billion.<blockquote>预计明年盈利和 EBITDA 的增长将受到重大打击，EBITDA 增长 10.8% 至 10.8 亿美元，盈利增长 7.5% 至 1.84 美元。如果一切顺利，分析师预计 2023 年每股收益将增长 49.5%，达到 2.76 美元，2023 年 EBITDA 将增长 56.9%，达到 16.9 亿美元。</blockquote> It will have to go right for Block because the growth forecast in 2022 comes nowhere close to what is needed to sustain the multiples on Block currently. In an environment where multiples are likely to compress, 2022 will need to be a year that provides plenty of upside reports and guidance. Especially when peer PayPal(NASDAQ:PYPL)trades with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 19.9 times 2023 estimates and 27.3 times 2023 earnings. Not only that but PayPal is expected to grow its EBITDA in 2022 by 15.5% and earnings by 14.4% in 2022. So the comparables favor PayPal over Block both in growth and valuations.<blockquote>对于 Block 来说，情况必须一切顺利，因为 2022 年的增长预测远未达到维持 Block 目前市盈率所需的水平。在市盈率可能会压缩的环境下，2022 年需要提供大量上行报告和指导。尤其是当同行PayPal（纳斯达克股票代码：PYPL）的 EV/EBITDA 倍数是 2023 年预期的 19.9 倍，是 2023 年收益的 27.3 倍时。不仅如此，PayPal预计 2022 年 EBITDA 将增长 15.5%，2022 年盈利将增长 14.4%。因此，无论是在增长还是估值方面，可比公司都更青睐PayPal而不是布洛克。</blockquote> Betting Shares Fall Further<blockquote>博彩股进一步下跌</blockquote> On Dec. 21, the open interest for the March 18 $170 calls increased by roughly 4700 contracts, while the $170 puts jumped by around 4,300 contracts. The data shows that 5,000 contracts call contracts were sold on the BID for $13.15, while 5,000 of the puts contracts were bought on the ASK for $22.35. In total, the trader paid around $8.20 per contract to bet that Block will be trading below $170 by the middle of March. The trader would need Blocks stock to be below $161.80 by the expiration to earn a profit.<blockquote>12月21日，3月18日170美元评级的未平仓合约增加了约4700份合约，而170美元看跌期权增加了约4300份合约。数据显示，5000份看涨期权合约以13.15美元的买入价卖出，而5000份看跌期权合约以22.35美元的卖出价买入。交易员总共为每份合约支付了约 8.20 美元，押注该区块到 3 月中旬的交易价格将低于 170 美元。交易者需要Blocks股票在到期前低于161.80美元才能获利。</blockquote> Short-Term Rally<blockquote>短期反弹</blockquote> The technical chart shows that Block tried to break out of a falling wedge pattern. To this point, it has been unable to mount a meaningful rebound. If the stock should fall below support at $154 it is likely to lead to a bigger drop, potentially back to $133, a price the stock has seen since September 2020.<blockquote>技术图表显示，布洛克试图突破下跌楔形形态。到目前为止，它还未能实现有意义的反弹。如果该股跌破 154 美元的支撑位，可能会导致更大的跌幅，可能会回到 133 美元，这是该股自 2020 年 9 月以来的价格。</blockquote> The relative strength index is attempting to flash a bullish divergence with the stock making a lower low and the RSI making a higher low. If the stock is able to advance beyond $175 it is likely to move all the way back to $199.<blockquote>相对强弱指数正试图闪现看涨背离，股票低点较低，RSI低点较高。如果该股能够突破 175 美元，则可能会一路回到 199 美元。</blockquote> However, given the shifting macro backdrop and the lack of the stocks ability to participate in this week's rally doesn't support the idea of the stock rising anytime soon.<blockquote>然而，鉴于宏观背景的变化以及该股缺乏参与本周反弹的能力，并不支持该股很快上涨的想法。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2fd84000c84d301e6ceba53c4ecc86e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Block will have a much more challenging year, both from comparable earnings and valuation standpoint. On top of that market, the dynamics are changing. Which likely means the stocks that have been favored over the past 18 months may now be turning out of favor as valuations begin to matter. Based on that, Block may still have a lot further to fall by the time this is all said and done.<blockquote>从可比盈利和估值的角度来看，布洛克今年将面临更具挑战性的一年。在这个市场之上，动态正在发生变化。这可能意味着，随着估值开始变得重要，过去 18 个月受到青睐的股票现在可能会失去青睐。基于此，到这些都说了，做了，布洛克可能还有很长的路要走。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476625-block-formerly-square-may-have-further-to-fall\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476625-block-formerly-square-may-have-further-to-fall","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181278306","content_text":"Summary\n\nBlock faces both macro and comparable headwinds in 2022 as peers look more attractive.\nThe technical chart shows that a short-term rebound attempt has failed to materialize.\nOptions traders see the stock trading below $160 through March.\n\nsimonkr/E+ via Getty Images\nSquare(NYSE:SQ) has changed its name to Block, and thus far, it hasn't helped benefit the stock. The stock has suffered since peaking in early August, dropping by nearly 45%. The odds are climbing that the performance doesn't get any better either, as the Fed turns its attention to inflation in 2022 and more hawkish monetary policy. That will likely lead to many of these high flyers struggling next year as multiple compression and valuations drop. Options traders are betting the stock doesn't rebound anytime soon.\nValuations Matter\nBlock is not cheap by any stretch of the imagination. Trading at 43.2 times 2023 EV/EBITDA and 57.5 times 2023 earnings estimates. The only reason the stock looks reasonably valued on a price-to-sales metric of 3.2 times 2023 forecast has to do with how it books its bitcoin revenue.\nGrowth in earnings and EBITDA is forecast to take a significant hit next year, with EBITDA rising by 10.8% to $1.08 billion and earnings climbing by 7.5% to $1.84. If everything goes right, analysts then see earnings climbing by 49.5% in 2023 to $2.76 per share, and EBITDA rising by 56.9% in 2023 to $1.69 billion.\nIt will have to go right for Block because the growth forecast in 2022 comes nowhere close to what is needed to sustain the multiples on Block currently. In an environment where multiples are likely to compress, 2022 will need to be a year that provides plenty of upside reports and guidance. Especially when peer PayPal(NASDAQ:PYPL)trades with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 19.9 times 2023 estimates and 27.3 times 2023 earnings. Not only that but PayPal is expected to grow its EBITDA in 2022 by 15.5% and earnings by 14.4% in 2022. So the comparables favor PayPal over Block both in growth and valuations.\nBetting Shares Fall Further\nOn Dec. 21, the open interest for the March 18 $170 calls increased by roughly 4700 contracts, while the $170 puts jumped by around 4,300 contracts. The data shows that 5,000 contracts call contracts were sold on the BID for $13.15, while 5,000 of the puts contracts were bought on the ASK for $22.35. In total, the trader paid around $8.20 per contract to bet that Block will be trading below $170 by the middle of March. The trader would need Blocks stock to be below $161.80 by the expiration to earn a profit.\nShort-Term Rally\nThe technical chart shows that Block tried to break out of a falling wedge pattern. To this point, it has been unable to mount a meaningful rebound. If the stock should fall below support at $154 it is likely to lead to a bigger drop, potentially back to $133, a price the stock has seen since September 2020.\nThe relative strength index is attempting to flash a bullish divergence with the stock making a lower low and the RSI making a higher low. If the stock is able to advance beyond $175 it is likely to move all the way back to $199.\nHowever, given the shifting macro backdrop and the lack of the stocks ability to participate in this week's rally doesn't support the idea of the stock rising anytime soon.\n\nBlock will have a much more challenging year, both from comparable earnings and valuation standpoint. On top of that market, the dynamics are changing. Which likely means the stocks that have been favored over the past 18 months may now be turning out of favor as valuations begin to matter. Based on that, Block may still have a lot further to fall by the time this is all said and done.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1721,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":29,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/698142780"}