Liuliusg
2021-12-24
Noted
XPeng: Forecasting Its Expansion Into Robotaxi<blockquote>小鹏汽车：预测其向机器人出租车领域的扩张</blockquote>
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This announcement generated multiple positive news articles, and the company's valuation rose in response. However, most if not all articles failed to appreciate a significant implication. XPeng will be the first vehicle manufacturer to enter the autonomous ride-hailing market with its mass-market production vehicles. With this announcement, XPeng implies their privately-owned vehicles will be able to match the autonomous capabilities of robotaxi firms like Waymo, Cruise, or Baidu (BIDU), and that XPeng can generate similar revenues without the added cost of robotaxi retrofit and potentially the cost of the vehicles themselves. With its substantial cost advantages, the company is poised to capture a large portion of the ride-hailing market and realize a significant valuation upside.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>小鹏汽车准备颠覆现有的机器人出租车和网约车公司。</li><li>使用以人工智能为中心的方法和小型传感器，小鹏汽车将能够以低得多的成本运营。</li><li>赢得网约车行业的市场份额意味着XPEV的估值有巨大的上行潜力。</li></ul>小鹏汽车（XPEV）最近宣布，该公司将于2022年下半年启动自动驾驶网约车服务试点计划。这一公告催生了多篇利好消息，公司估值应声上涨。然而，大多数（如果不是全部的话）文章未能理解一个重要的含义。小鹏汽车将成为第一家凭借其量产车辆进入自动驾驶网约车市场的汽车制造商。通过这一公告，小鹏汽车暗示他们的私人车辆将能够与Waymo、Cruise或百度（BIDU）等机器人出租车公司的自动驾驶能力相匹配，并且小鹏汽车可以产生类似的收入，而无需增加机器人出租车改造和潜在成本。车辆本身的成本。凭借其巨大的成本优势，该公司有望占领网约车市场的很大一部分，并实现大幅的估值上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设</b></blockquote></p><p> Here, I make a large assumption that the pilot program will take two years to complete, and full-scale commercial operations and revenue generations will begin at the start of 2025. There exists a large degree of uncertainty with this timeline. It is largely dependent on the pace of ADAS technology development and regulatory approvals.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我做了一个很大的假设，试点项目需要两年时间才能完成，全面的商业运营和创收将在2025年初开始。这个时间表存在很大程度的不确定性。这在很大程度上取决于ADAS技术开发和监管批准的步伐。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng has recently released the Xpilot 3.5 system with the model P5. There are multiple YouTube videos where professional reviewers ride the city NGP (Navigation Guided Pilot) 3.5 system. Here's a video clip during the XPeng Tech Day. The demonstrations consistently navigated challenging routes with few disengagements. The reviewers unanimously found the system impressive. XPeng also announced the release of the Xpilot 4.0 system with its new SUV model G9. The company expects that the 4.0 system will be live in 2023 and will be able to autonomously pilot almost all roads in China with zero disengagements. Such performance will be technologically sufficient to operate a robotaxi business.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最近发布了Xpilot 3.5系统，车型为P5。YouTube上有多个视频，其中专业评论者乘坐城市NGP（导航引导飞行员）3.5系统。这是小鹏科技日期间的视频剪辑。示威活动始终沿着具有挑战性的路线行驶，很少脱离接触。评论者一致认为该系统令人印象深刻。小鹏汽车还宣布在旗下全新SUV车型G9上发布Xpilot 4.0系统。该公司预计4.0系统将于2023年上线，并能够在中国几乎所有道路上实现零脱离的自动驾驶。这样的性能在技术上足以运营机器人出租车业务。</blockquote></p><p> We have seen past timelines with Baidu Apollo and Pony.ai services. In November, the city of Beijing granted full commercial operation licenses to robotaxi services. It had taken a little over two years from pilot debut to limited commercialization. Baidu expects other major cities to follow Beijing's lead early next year. If XPeng is to follow the timeline, it can expect to receive commercial licenses for revenue generation in early 2025. However, Baidu and regulators have been exploring a nascent industry and building a regulatory framework. I believe it is likely that the approval of XPeng robotaxis will be considerably faster, as the approval process can take advantage of existing guidelines.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经看到了百度Apollo和Pony.ai服务过去的时间表。11月，北京市授予机器人出租车服务全面商业运营许可。从试点首次亮相到有限商业化，用了两年多一点的时间。百度预计明年初其他主要城市也将效仿北京的做法。如果小鹏汽车按照时间表进行，预计将在2025年初获得商业许可以产生收入。然而，百度和监管机构一直在探索一个新兴行业并建立监管框架。我相信小鹏机器人出租车的审批速度可能会快得多，因为审批流程可以利用现有的指导方针。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the trends of XPeng's ADAS technology and China's regulatory framework both support the assumption of 2025 revenue realization, and this assumption may be conservative.</p><p><blockquote>因此，小鹏ADAS技术和中国监管框架的趋势都支持2025年收入实现的假设，而这一假设可能偏保守。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue and CostRobotaxi Economics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入和成本出租车经济学</b></blockquote></p><p> After receiving commercial licenses, Baidu has announced that it is charging above-market fees. Baidu has a limited number of commercial licenses, and the demand is excessive due to the novelty factor. As it scales into larger operations, the fee structure is likely to come down and undercut the main competitor DiDi (DIDI), which charges $.7 - $2/mile depending on a variety of factors and level of service. For comparable service to Baidu Apollo cars in operation, DiDi charges about $1/mile, according to Lux Research Inc's articleThe Economics of Robotaxis.</p><p><blockquote>在获得商业许可后，百度宣布收取高于市场的费用。百度商用牌照数量有限，新奇因素导致需求过度。随着其规模扩大到更大的业务，费用结构可能会下降，并削弱主要竞争对手滴滴（DIDI），后者根据各种因素和服务水平收取0.7-2美元/英里的费用。根据Lux Research Inc.的文章《机器人出租车的经济学》，对于与运营中的百度Apollo汽车相当的服务，滴滴的收费约为1美元/英里。</blockquote></p><p> The article also estimates a robotaxi costs $0.28/mile to operate in China. On paper, Baidu should be able to maintain a healthy profit margin, charge lower than DiDi, and gain significant market share. If we examine the cost trends, the advantages of robotaxi widen even further. The largest cost driver of DiDi is labor, which is rising in China and around the world. Out of the operation costs of robotaxis, maintenance cost is expected to trend down as EV quality improves. Insurance cost is expected to trend down as large robotaxi firms can insure their own operations. Added value cost is expected to trend down as the autonomous driving sensors are falling sharply in prices. Vehicle cost may rise moderately but the economy of scale should keep the rate of materials inflation under that of wage inflation. Therefore, Lux Research Inc concludes, and I agree, that robotaxi operations will be disruptive to incumbent ride-hailing companies. However, how does XPeng fit into this picture?</p><p><blockquote>文章还估计，robotaxi在中国的运营成本为0.28美元/英里。理论上，百度应该能够保持健康的利润率，收费低于滴滴，并获得显著的市场份额。如果我们考察成本趋势，robotaxi的优势会进一步扩大。滴滴最大的成本驱动因素是劳动力，劳动力在中国和全球都在上升。在机器人出租车的运营成本中，随着电动汽车质量的提高，维护成本预计将呈下降趋势。随着大型机器人出租车公司可以为自己的运营投保，保险费用预计将呈下降趋势。随着自动驾驶传感器价格大幅下降，附加值成本预计将呈下降趋势。车辆成本可能会适度上升，但规模经济应使材料通胀率低于工资通胀率。因此，Lux Research Inc的结论是，我也同意，机器人出租车运营将对现有的网约车公司造成颠覆性影响。然而，小鹏汽车如何融入这幅图景？</blockquote></p><p> <b>XPeng Disruptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小鹏汽车的颠覆</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost analysis shows XPeng's robotaxis will further disrupt the nascent robotaxi companies. XPeng vehicles with Xpilot 4.0 do not require retrofit to operate as a robotaxi. Lux Research estimates the robotaxis like the Baidu Apollo cost about $0.15/mile to operate in terms of vehicle and added value retrofit costs. In June 2021, Baidu announced its Apollo Moon robotaxi will cost 480,000 yuan ($75,000) to produce, according to thisNikkei articleand other publications. On the other hand, the XPeng G9 with XPilot 4.0 is expected to cost between 350,000 to 400,000 yuan to the consumers. If we roughly estimate 15% profit margin and 15% selling and marketing costs, the G9 costs XPeng approximately between 245,000 to 280,000 yuan to produce. Therefore, XPeng will be able to operate with 42-49% less vehicle cost compared to Baidu Apollo.</p><p><blockquote>成本分析显示，小鹏汽车的机器人出租车将进一步颠覆新兴的机器人出租车公司。配备Xpilot 4.0的小鹏汽车无需改装即可作为机器人出租车运行。Lux Research估计，就车辆和增值改造成本而言，像百度Apollo这样的机器人出租车的运营成本约为0.15美元/英里。据《日经新闻》的这篇文章和其他出版物报道，2021年6月，百度宣布其Apollo Moon机器人出租车的生产成本为48万元人民币（75,000美元）。另一方面，搭载XPilot 4.0的小鹏G9预计消费者的售价在35-40万元之间。如果我们粗略估计15%的利润率和15%的销售和营销成本，G9的生产成本约为24.5万至28万元。因此，与百度Apollo相比，小鹏汽车的运营成本将降低42-49%。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, XPeng robotaxi can potentially operate without a vehicle cost at all. By 2025, there are expected to be hundreds of thousands of XPeng EVs on the road that can operate as robotaxi with an OTA update. Just as Uber and DiDi hire gig drivers, XPeng can theoretically hire private autonomous cars and pay the owners a share of the revenue.</p><p><blockquote>此外，小鹏机器人出租车有可能在没有任何车辆成本的情况下运营。到2025年，预计将有数十万辆小鹏电动汽车上路，通过OTA更新可以作为robotaxi运行。就像Uber和滴滴雇佣零工司机一样，小鹏汽车理论上可以雇佣私人自动驾驶汽车，并向车主支付一部分收入。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, robotaxi companies like Baidu must maintain high margins to bear its significant overhead costs in R&D and SGA. XPeng Motors vehicle sales bear the majority of the R&D and SGA costs. Additional indirect costs from robotaxi business should be a small fraction of the cost structure of incumbent ride-hailing companies. If XPeng is to launch robotaxi today, it can theoretically charge $0.50/mile at a cost of $0.205/mile. (Its vehicle cost is $0.075/mile cheaper than Baidu, which cost about $0.28/mile to operate.) Such a price point cannot be matched by Baidu or DiDi and will substantially displace their market share. In fact, DiDi's breakeven price point is most likely higher than $0.90/mile. Therefore, I conclude it is likely that XPeng will be charge half of the fees of Baidu and DiDi and still maintain healthy profit margins.</p><p><blockquote>最后，像百度这样的机器人出租车公司必须保持高利润率，以承担其在研发和SGA方面的巨额管理费用。小鹏汽车汽车销售承担了大部分研发和SGA成本。robotaxi业务的额外间接成本应该只占现有网约车公司成本结构的一小部分。如果小鹏今天要推出robotaxi，理论上可以以0.205美元/英里的成本收费0.50美元/英里。（其车辆成本比百度便宜0.075美元/英里，后者的运营成本约为0.28美元/英里。）这样的价位是百度或滴滴无法比拟的，将大大取代他们的市场份额。事实上，滴滴的盈亏平衡价位大概率高于0.90美元/英里。因此，我的结论是，小鹏汽车很可能会收取百度和滴滴一半的费用，但仍保持健康的利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Trends and Projections</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场趋势和预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Robotaxis are expected to disrupt the ride-hailing industry. Major players like DiDi and Uber (UBER) are aware of this future trend and have spent billions developing autonomy technology themselves. As technologies mature, autonomous vehicles will also be able to encroach into the food delivery business. As a side note, XPeng holds a unique advantage with its advanced robotics division. It is in the process of bringing to market a robotic pony with autonomous terrain navigation capabilities. An online video shows it is currently able to deliver objects around XPeng's office by voice command. Robotics can enable a robotaxi to bridge the gap between the road and the delivery destination.</p><p><blockquote>机器人出租车有望颠覆网约车行业。滴滴和优步（Uber）等主要参与者意识到了这一未来趋势，并花费数十亿美元自行开发自动驾驶技术。随着技术的成熟，自动驾驶汽车也将能够蚕食外卖业务。顺便说一句，小鹏汽车凭借其先进机器人部门拥有独特的优势。它正在向市场推出一款具有自主地形导航功能的机器人小马。一段在线视频显示，它目前能够通过语音命令在小鹏办公室周围运送物品。机器人技术可以让机器人出租车弥合道路和送货目的地之间的差距。</blockquote></p><p> Following is a graph of the estimated Total Addressable Market of ride-hailing and food delivery in China, according to statista.com.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4bc4ab7e29a5f0b49cfd35d781f4597\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the assumption that XPeng gains regulatory licenses in 2025, I estimate XPeng Robotaxi business will grow rapidly and hold significant market share in the ride-hailing market and substantial market share in the food delivery market by 2028. Thereafter, XPeng may experience slower growth once other vehicle systems reach sufficient autonomy. I expect XPeng Robotaxi's profit margins will be lower than DiDi's as XPeng pushes a low-cost strategy to displace incumbents. I expect as much as 90% of earnings after taxes will be pure free cash flow, as R&D and SGA costs attributed to the robotaxi division will be low.</p><p><blockquote>根据statista.com的数据，下图是中国网约车和食品配送的预计总目标市场。假设小鹏汽车在2025年获得监管许可，我估计到2028年，小鹏机器人出租车业务将快速增长，并在网约车市场占据重要市场份额，在外卖市场占据重要市场份额。此后，一旦其他车辆系统达到足够的自主性，小鹏汽车的增长可能会放缓。我预计小鹏机器人出租车的利润率将低于滴滴，因为小鹏汽车推行低成本战略来取代现有企业。我预计多达90%的税后收益将是纯自由现金流，因为robotaxi部门的研发和SGA成本将很低。</blockquote></p><p> I use the following assumptions for a valuation projection. There are high degrees of uncertainty and conjecture, as I forecast the first business of its kind in 2025, in an industry that is still nascent today. I expect XPeng to gain a 5% market share in robotaxi and a 2.5% market share in food delivery in 2025. It will grow at a 30% CAGR through 2028. Thereafter, the growth slows gradually to 10% by 2031 and continues at the terminal growth rate of 5%. I assume XPeng will capture 50% of sales as FCF. I use a 13% discount rate to arrive at the discounted present value of future cash flow.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d26c909caf45b9ea96b0960fd37dcd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The critical assumptions in market shares and a 30% CAGR, I believe, are conservative. I arrive at a $133.5B USD valuation for the XPeng Robotaxi business, a 350% upside to its current valuations and in addition to its vehicle sales business. I would argue that only $9B is priced in when the stock appreciated after the robotaxi announcement. Long-term investors can consider attractive points to enter. As we approach the pilot launch in 2022, more and more of the upside may be priced in with additional announcements.</p><p><blockquote>我使用以下假设进行估值预测。存在高度的不确定性和猜测，因为我预测2025年将出现第一个此类业务，而这个行业至今仍处于萌芽阶段。我预计小鹏汽车在2025年将在robotaxi领域获得5%的市场份额，在食品配送领域获得2.5%的市场份额。到2028年，它将以30%的复合年增长率增长。此后，到2031年，增长逐渐放缓至10%，并继续保持5%的最终增长率。我假设小鹏汽车将获得50%的销售额作为自由现金流。我使用13%的贴现率来得出未来现金流的贴现现值。我认为，市场份额和30%复合年增长率的关键假设是保守的。我对小鹏汽车出租车业务的估值为1335亿美元，比其当前估值上涨350%，此外还有汽车销售业务。我认为，当robotaxi发布后该股升值时，定价中只有90亿美元。长线投资者可以考虑有吸引力的点位入场。随着2022年试点发布的临近，越来越多的上行空间可能会随着更多公告而被定价。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Additional Bull Notes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他牛市票据</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng's core business is currently undervalued relative to its peers. As of 12/9/2021, Tesla is valued at 25 times XPeng and is on track to delivery approximately 7 times more car than XPeng in Q4. Tesla in Q3 grew at a pace of 73% YoY, which XPeng in Q3 grew 199% YoY. Considering XPeng's exceptional growth rate, it is clear XPeng is trading at a substantial discount.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车的核心业务目前相对于同行被低估。截至2021年12月9日，特斯拉的估值是小鹏汽车的25倍，并有望在第四季度交付比小鹏汽车多约7倍的汽车。特斯拉第三季度同比增长73%，其中小鹏汽车第三季度同比增长199%。考虑到小鹏汽车非凡的增长率，很明显小鹏汽车的交易价格大幅折扣。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the robotaxi business and vehicle manufacturing are complementary businesses. Ride-hailing revenue share can incentivize more sales. If forced to own the vehicles, XPeng Motors can sell to XPeng Robotaxi at cost, giving it a substantial cost advantage over competitors.</p><p><blockquote>此外，机器人出租车业务和车辆制造是互补的业务。网约车收入份额可以激励更多销售。如果被迫拥有这些车辆，小鹏汽车可以以成本价出售给小鹏机器人出租车，使其相对于竞争对手具有巨大的成本优势。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to valuations from vehicle sales and robotaxi revenue, other potential valuation upsides exist. XPeng users currently pay monthly subscription fees to use its NGP system. We can expect the subscription uptake rate to improve as more autonomous functions are introduced. With a growing user base and its highly profitable margins, NGP subscription cash flows may grow to rival vehicle sales. We can also expect revenues from eVOTL and robotic pony sales by 2024. These revenues can be significant and are not currently priced in.</p><p><blockquote>除了汽车销量和robotaxi收入的估值外，还存在其他潜在的估值上行空间。小鹏用户目前每月支付订阅费才能使用其NGP系统。随着更多自主功能的引入，我们可以预期订阅率将会提高。随着用户群的不断增长及其高利润率，NGP订阅现金流可能会增长到与汽车销量相媲美的水平。我们还可以预计到2024年，eVOTL和机器人小马的销售收入。这些收入可能很大，但目前尚未计入价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While I believe the technology and cost structure support my bull thesis, uncertainties exist. The revenue is largely dependent on the number of vehicle licenses Chinese regulators will be willing to authorize. Regulatory approvals may be slowed to reduce disruptions to the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我相信技术和成本结构支持我的看涨论点，但不确定性是存在的。收入在很大程度上取决于中国监管机构愿意授权的车辆牌照数量。监管审批可能会放缓，以减少对劳动力市场的干扰。</blockquote></p><p> In the most bearish case, regulators may decline to grant ride-hailing licenses to private autonomous vehicles. This case is highly unlikely. China would be stifling one of its leading-edge industries. There is little rationale for denying XPeng, as both private ride-hailing vehicles and autonomous ride-hailing vehicles are already authorized. However, some cities may require XPeng to own its robotaxi fleet, which will reduce its competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>在最悲观的情况下，监管机构可能会拒绝向私人自动驾驶汽车发放网约车牌照。这种情况极不可能发生。中国将扼杀其领先行业之一。拒绝小鹏汽车的理由很少，因为私人网约车和自动驾驶网约车都已经获得授权。然而，一些城市可能会要求小鹏汽车拥有其robotaxi车队，这将降低其竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> Tiger Securities gave a bearish review of XPeng, citing that the current laws prohibit autonomous operations, and other players \"might have time to catch up.\" It is important to study the autonomy capabilities of other players and estimate that likelihood. Judging from FSD beta tester videos, Tesla (TSLA) autonomy is somewhat behind that of XPeng's. Though with its wealth of data, Tesla may be able to quickly catch up. Regardless, Tesla FSD and XPeng NGP are coded for different driving environments. They most likely will not directly compete in robotaxi until later in the decade and in other markets than US or China. In China, Huawei Harmony intelligent driving system has also demonstrated a high level of autonomy. Huawei however is not a vehicle manufacturer. Its EV partner BAIC Arcfox is lagging quite far behind in sales compared to other EV peers. Current robotaxi firms like Baidu and Pony.ai may be able to substantially reduce the retrofit cost and may even adapt their system to a mass-market vehicle. It is unclear if it is possible for a hardware-centric robotaxi system based on powerful roof sensors to adapt to an array of weaker sensors that require greater AI logic.</p><p><blockquote>老虎证券对小鹏汽车给出了看跌评级，理由是现行法律禁止自动驾驶，其他玩家“可能有时间赶上”。研究其他参与者的自主能力并估计这种可能性是很重要的。从FSD beta测试人员视频来看，特斯拉（TSLA）的自主性有些落后于小鹏汽车。尽管凭借丰富的数据，特斯拉或许能够迅速赶上。无论如何，特斯拉FSD和小鹏NGP都是针对不同的驾驶环境进行编码的。他们很可能要到本世纪晚些时候才会在机器人出租车领域以及美国或中国以外的其他市场直接竞争。在中国，华为Harmony智能驾驶系统也展现了高度的自动驾驶水平。然而，华为不是一家汽车制造商。与其他电动汽车同行相比，其电动汽车合作伙伴北汽Arcfox的销量远远落后。百度和小马智行等当前的机器人出租车公司可能能够大幅降低改造成本，甚至可能使其系统适应大众市场车辆。目前尚不清楚基于强大车顶传感器的以硬件为中心的robotaxi系统是否有可能适应一系列需要更强人工智能逻辑的较弱传感器。</blockquote></p><p> Capturing a share of the ride-hailing and delivery market in China is highly dependent upon XPeng maintaining technology and cost advantage. It would be fair to attribute a large risk discount to the valuation. Though any shortfall in market share can be supplemented by international markets.</p><p><blockquote>在中国网约车和送货市场占据份额高度依赖于小鹏汽车保持技术和成本优势。将较大的风险折扣归因于估值是公平的。尽管市场份额的任何不足都可以通过国际市场来补充。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, there are geopolitical and specific delisting risks to investing in Chinese stocks in the form of ADRs. XPeng and some other US-listed ADRs have also listed in Hong Kong to hedge against the possibilities of delisting. In the event of delisting, US shareholders will be able to trade their shares for Hong Kong-listed shares. Those who cannot or are not willing to bank in Hong Kong will exist long positions. Share prices may be moderately depressed in the short and medium-term. It is fair to attribute some risk premium to Chinese ADRs. Though I would argue that such discounts are already priced, and in fact, the market has overreacted to recent news.</p><p><blockquote>最后，以ADR形式投资中国股票存在地缘政治和特定的退市风险。小鹏汽车和其他一些在美国上市的美国存托凭证也在香港上市，以对冲退市的可能性。如果退市，美国股东将能够将其股票交易为香港上市股票。那些不能或不愿意在香港办理银行业务的人将持有多头头寸。中短期内股价可能会适度低迷。将部分风险溢价归因于中国ADR是公平的。尽管我认为这种折扣已经定价，事实上，市场对最近的消息反应过度了。</blockquote></p><p> To Conclude</p><p><blockquote>得出结论</blockquote></p><p> XPEV has earned an average consensus of \"Buy\" recommendations from analysts. XPeng is also one of the fastest-growing pure-play EV companies in the world, growing at the rate of 188% YoY for Q3 2021 and 270% YoY for the month of November 2021. Considering its tremendous growth rate, its share price is undervalued and attractive to own. Furthermore, I argue in this article that XPeng is poised to realize an additional 350% upside to its valuation, as the company enters the ride-hailing market through its autonomous driving technology. While it may take several years for XPeng to fully realize its robotaxi ambitions, time may be running out to buy XPEV at a cheap price. Therefore, I advise investors to buy and hold for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV获得了分析师平均一致的“买入”建议。小鹏汽车也是全球增长最快的纯电动汽车公司之一，2021年第三季度同比增长188%，2021年11月同比增长270%。考虑到其巨大的增长率，其股价被低估且具有吸引力。此外，我在本文中认为，随着小鹏汽车通过自动驾驶技术进入网约车市场，其估值有望实现350%的额外上涨。虽然小鹏汽车可能需要几年时间才能完全实现其robotaxi雄心，但以低廉的价格购买XPEV的时间可能已经不多了。因此，我建议投资者买入并长期持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng: Forecasting Its Expansion Into Robotaxi<blockquote>小鹏汽车：预测其向机器人出租车领域的扩张</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng: Forecasting Its Expansion Into Robotaxi<blockquote>小鹏汽车：预测其向机器人出租车领域的扩张</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 14:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>XPeng is poised to disrupt the incumbent robotaxi and ride-hailing firms.</li> <li>Using an AI-centric approach with small sensors, XPeng will be able to operate at a substantially lower cost.</li> <li>Winning a market share of the ride-hailing industry implies significant upside valuation potential for XPEV.</li> </ul> XPeng Motors (XPEV) recently announced the company will launch a pilot program for autonomous driving ride-hailing service in the second half of 2022. This announcement generated multiple positive news articles, and the company's valuation rose in response. However, most if not all articles failed to appreciate a significant implication. XPeng will be the first vehicle manufacturer to enter the autonomous ride-hailing market with its mass-market production vehicles. With this announcement, XPeng implies their privately-owned vehicles will be able to match the autonomous capabilities of robotaxi firms like Waymo, Cruise, or Baidu (BIDU), and that XPeng can generate similar revenues without the added cost of robotaxi retrofit and potentially the cost of the vehicles themselves. With its substantial cost advantages, the company is poised to capture a large portion of the ride-hailing market and realize a significant valuation upside.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>小鹏汽车准备颠覆现有的机器人出租车和网约车公司。</li><li>使用以人工智能为中心的方法和小型传感器，小鹏汽车将能够以低得多的成本运营。</li><li>赢得网约车行业的市场份额意味着XPEV的估值有巨大的上行潜力。</li></ul>小鹏汽车（XPEV）最近宣布，该公司将于2022年下半年启动自动驾驶网约车服务试点计划。这一公告催生了多篇利好消息，公司估值应声上涨。然而，大多数（如果不是全部的话）文章未能理解一个重要的含义。小鹏汽车将成为第一家凭借其量产车辆进入自动驾驶网约车市场的汽车制造商。通过这一公告，小鹏汽车暗示他们的私人车辆将能够与Waymo、Cruise或百度（BIDU）等机器人出租车公司的自动驾驶能力相匹配，并且小鹏汽车可以产生类似的收入，而无需增加机器人出租车改造和潜在成本。车辆本身的成本。凭借其巨大的成本优势，该公司有望占领网约车市场的很大一部分，并实现大幅的估值上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设</b></blockquote></p><p> Here, I make a large assumption that the pilot program will take two years to complete, and full-scale commercial operations and revenue generations will begin at the start of 2025. There exists a large degree of uncertainty with this timeline. It is largely dependent on the pace of ADAS technology development and regulatory approvals.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我做了一个很大的假设，试点项目需要两年时间才能完成，全面的商业运营和创收将在2025年初开始。这个时间表存在很大程度的不确定性。这在很大程度上取决于ADAS技术开发和监管批准的步伐。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng has recently released the Xpilot 3.5 system with the model P5. There are multiple YouTube videos where professional reviewers ride the city NGP (Navigation Guided Pilot) 3.5 system. Here's a video clip during the XPeng Tech Day. The demonstrations consistently navigated challenging routes with few disengagements. The reviewers unanimously found the system impressive. XPeng also announced the release of the Xpilot 4.0 system with its new SUV model G9. The company expects that the 4.0 system will be live in 2023 and will be able to autonomously pilot almost all roads in China with zero disengagements. Such performance will be technologically sufficient to operate a robotaxi business.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最近发布了Xpilot 3.5系统，车型为P5。YouTube上有多个视频，其中专业评论者乘坐城市NGP（导航引导飞行员）3.5系统。这是小鹏科技日期间的视频剪辑。示威活动始终沿着具有挑战性的路线行驶，很少脱离接触。评论者一致认为该系统令人印象深刻。小鹏汽车还宣布在旗下全新SUV车型G9上发布Xpilot 4.0系统。该公司预计4.0系统将于2023年上线，并能够在中国几乎所有道路上实现零脱离的自动驾驶。这样的性能在技术上足以运营机器人出租车业务。</blockquote></p><p> We have seen past timelines with Baidu Apollo and Pony.ai services. In November, the city of Beijing granted full commercial operation licenses to robotaxi services. It had taken a little over two years from pilot debut to limited commercialization. Baidu expects other major cities to follow Beijing's lead early next year. If XPeng is to follow the timeline, it can expect to receive commercial licenses for revenue generation in early 2025. However, Baidu and regulators have been exploring a nascent industry and building a regulatory framework. I believe it is likely that the approval of XPeng robotaxis will be considerably faster, as the approval process can take advantage of existing guidelines.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经看到了百度Apollo和Pony.ai服务过去的时间表。11月，北京市授予机器人出租车服务全面商业运营许可。从试点首次亮相到有限商业化，用了两年多一点的时间。百度预计明年初其他主要城市也将效仿北京的做法。如果小鹏汽车按照时间表进行，预计将在2025年初获得商业许可以产生收入。然而，百度和监管机构一直在探索一个新兴行业并建立监管框架。我相信小鹏机器人出租车的审批速度可能会快得多，因为审批流程可以利用现有的指导方针。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the trends of XPeng's ADAS technology and China's regulatory framework both support the assumption of 2025 revenue realization, and this assumption may be conservative.</p><p><blockquote>因此，小鹏ADAS技术和中国监管框架的趋势都支持2025年收入实现的假设，而这一假设可能偏保守。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue and CostRobotaxi Economics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入和成本出租车经济学</b></blockquote></p><p> After receiving commercial licenses, Baidu has announced that it is charging above-market fees. Baidu has a limited number of commercial licenses, and the demand is excessive due to the novelty factor. As it scales into larger operations, the fee structure is likely to come down and undercut the main competitor DiDi (DIDI), which charges $.7 - $2/mile depending on a variety of factors and level of service. For comparable service to Baidu Apollo cars in operation, DiDi charges about $1/mile, according to Lux Research Inc's articleThe Economics of Robotaxis.</p><p><blockquote>在获得商业许可后，百度宣布收取高于市场的费用。百度商用牌照数量有限，新奇因素导致需求过度。随着其规模扩大到更大的业务，费用结构可能会下降，并削弱主要竞争对手滴滴（DIDI），后者根据各种因素和服务水平收取0.7-2美元/英里的费用。根据Lux Research Inc.的文章《机器人出租车的经济学》，对于与运营中的百度Apollo汽车相当的服务，滴滴的收费约为1美元/英里。</blockquote></p><p> The article also estimates a robotaxi costs $0.28/mile to operate in China. On paper, Baidu should be able to maintain a healthy profit margin, charge lower than DiDi, and gain significant market share. If we examine the cost trends, the advantages of robotaxi widen even further. The largest cost driver of DiDi is labor, which is rising in China and around the world. Out of the operation costs of robotaxis, maintenance cost is expected to trend down as EV quality improves. Insurance cost is expected to trend down as large robotaxi firms can insure their own operations. Added value cost is expected to trend down as the autonomous driving sensors are falling sharply in prices. Vehicle cost may rise moderately but the economy of scale should keep the rate of materials inflation under that of wage inflation. Therefore, Lux Research Inc concludes, and I agree, that robotaxi operations will be disruptive to incumbent ride-hailing companies. However, how does XPeng fit into this picture?</p><p><blockquote>文章还估计，robotaxi在中国的运营成本为0.28美元/英里。理论上，百度应该能够保持健康的利润率，收费低于滴滴，并获得显著的市场份额。如果我们考察成本趋势，robotaxi的优势会进一步扩大。滴滴最大的成本驱动因素是劳动力，劳动力在中国和全球都在上升。在机器人出租车的运营成本中，随着电动汽车质量的提高，维护成本预计将呈下降趋势。随着大型机器人出租车公司可以为自己的运营投保，保险费用预计将呈下降趋势。随着自动驾驶传感器价格大幅下降，附加值成本预计将呈下降趋势。车辆成本可能会适度上升，但规模经济应使材料通胀率低于工资通胀率。因此，Lux Research Inc的结论是，我也同意，机器人出租车运营将对现有的网约车公司造成颠覆性影响。然而，小鹏汽车如何融入这幅图景？</blockquote></p><p> <b>XPeng Disruptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小鹏汽车的颠覆</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost analysis shows XPeng's robotaxis will further disrupt the nascent robotaxi companies. XPeng vehicles with Xpilot 4.0 do not require retrofit to operate as a robotaxi. Lux Research estimates the robotaxis like the Baidu Apollo cost about $0.15/mile to operate in terms of vehicle and added value retrofit costs. In June 2021, Baidu announced its Apollo Moon robotaxi will cost 480,000 yuan ($75,000) to produce, according to thisNikkei articleand other publications. On the other hand, the XPeng G9 with XPilot 4.0 is expected to cost between 350,000 to 400,000 yuan to the consumers. If we roughly estimate 15% profit margin and 15% selling and marketing costs, the G9 costs XPeng approximately between 245,000 to 280,000 yuan to produce. Therefore, XPeng will be able to operate with 42-49% less vehicle cost compared to Baidu Apollo.</p><p><blockquote>成本分析显示，小鹏汽车的机器人出租车将进一步颠覆新兴的机器人出租车公司。配备Xpilot 4.0的小鹏汽车无需改装即可作为机器人出租车运行。Lux Research估计，就车辆和增值改造成本而言，像百度Apollo这样的机器人出租车的运营成本约为0.15美元/英里。据《日经新闻》的这篇文章和其他出版物报道，2021年6月，百度宣布其Apollo Moon机器人出租车的生产成本为48万元人民币（75,000美元）。另一方面，搭载XPilot 4.0的小鹏G9预计消费者的售价在35-40万元之间。如果我们粗略估计15%的利润率和15%的销售和营销成本，G9的生产成本约为24.5万至28万元。因此，与百度Apollo相比，小鹏汽车的运营成本将降低42-49%。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, XPeng robotaxi can potentially operate without a vehicle cost at all. By 2025, there are expected to be hundreds of thousands of XPeng EVs on the road that can operate as robotaxi with an OTA update. Just as Uber and DiDi hire gig drivers, XPeng can theoretically hire private autonomous cars and pay the owners a share of the revenue.</p><p><blockquote>此外，小鹏机器人出租车有可能在没有任何车辆成本的情况下运营。到2025年，预计将有数十万辆小鹏电动汽车上路，通过OTA更新可以作为robotaxi运行。就像Uber和滴滴雇佣零工司机一样，小鹏汽车理论上可以雇佣私人自动驾驶汽车，并向车主支付一部分收入。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, robotaxi companies like Baidu must maintain high margins to bear its significant overhead costs in R&D and SGA. XPeng Motors vehicle sales bear the majority of the R&D and SGA costs. Additional indirect costs from robotaxi business should be a small fraction of the cost structure of incumbent ride-hailing companies. If XPeng is to launch robotaxi today, it can theoretically charge $0.50/mile at a cost of $0.205/mile. (Its vehicle cost is $0.075/mile cheaper than Baidu, which cost about $0.28/mile to operate.) Such a price point cannot be matched by Baidu or DiDi and will substantially displace their market share. In fact, DiDi's breakeven price point is most likely higher than $0.90/mile. Therefore, I conclude it is likely that XPeng will be charge half of the fees of Baidu and DiDi and still maintain healthy profit margins.</p><p><blockquote>最后，像百度这样的机器人出租车公司必须保持高利润率，以承担其在研发和SGA方面的巨额管理费用。小鹏汽车汽车销售承担了大部分研发和SGA成本。robotaxi业务的额外间接成本应该只占现有网约车公司成本结构的一小部分。如果小鹏今天要推出robotaxi，理论上可以以0.205美元/英里的成本收费0.50美元/英里。（其车辆成本比百度便宜0.075美元/英里，后者的运营成本约为0.28美元/英里。）这样的价位是百度或滴滴无法比拟的，将大大取代他们的市场份额。事实上，滴滴的盈亏平衡价位大概率高于0.90美元/英里。因此，我的结论是，小鹏汽车很可能会收取百度和滴滴一半的费用，但仍保持健康的利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Trends and Projections</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场趋势和预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Robotaxis are expected to disrupt the ride-hailing industry. Major players like DiDi and Uber (UBER) are aware of this future trend and have spent billions developing autonomy technology themselves. As technologies mature, autonomous vehicles will also be able to encroach into the food delivery business. As a side note, XPeng holds a unique advantage with its advanced robotics division. It is in the process of bringing to market a robotic pony with autonomous terrain navigation capabilities. An online video shows it is currently able to deliver objects around XPeng's office by voice command. Robotics can enable a robotaxi to bridge the gap between the road and the delivery destination.</p><p><blockquote>机器人出租车有望颠覆网约车行业。滴滴和优步（Uber）等主要参与者意识到了这一未来趋势，并花费数十亿美元自行开发自动驾驶技术。随着技术的成熟，自动驾驶汽车也将能够蚕食外卖业务。顺便说一句，小鹏汽车凭借其先进机器人部门拥有独特的优势。它正在向市场推出一款具有自主地形导航功能的机器人小马。一段在线视频显示，它目前能够通过语音命令在小鹏办公室周围运送物品。机器人技术可以让机器人出租车弥合道路和送货目的地之间的差距。</blockquote></p><p> Following is a graph of the estimated Total Addressable Market of ride-hailing and food delivery in China, according to statista.com.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4bc4ab7e29a5f0b49cfd35d781f4597\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the assumption that XPeng gains regulatory licenses in 2025, I estimate XPeng Robotaxi business will grow rapidly and hold significant market share in the ride-hailing market and substantial market share in the food delivery market by 2028. Thereafter, XPeng may experience slower growth once other vehicle systems reach sufficient autonomy. I expect XPeng Robotaxi's profit margins will be lower than DiDi's as XPeng pushes a low-cost strategy to displace incumbents. I expect as much as 90% of earnings after taxes will be pure free cash flow, as R&D and SGA costs attributed to the robotaxi division will be low.</p><p><blockquote>根据statista.com的数据，下图是中国网约车和食品配送的预计总目标市场。假设小鹏汽车在2025年获得监管许可，我估计到2028年，小鹏机器人出租车业务将快速增长，并在网约车市场占据重要市场份额，在外卖市场占据重要市场份额。此后，一旦其他车辆系统达到足够的自主性，小鹏汽车的增长可能会放缓。我预计小鹏机器人出租车的利润率将低于滴滴，因为小鹏汽车推行低成本战略来取代现有企业。我预计多达90%的税后收益将是纯自由现金流，因为robotaxi部门的研发和SGA成本将很低。</blockquote></p><p> I use the following assumptions for a valuation projection. There are high degrees of uncertainty and conjecture, as I forecast the first business of its kind in 2025, in an industry that is still nascent today. I expect XPeng to gain a 5% market share in robotaxi and a 2.5% market share in food delivery in 2025. It will grow at a 30% CAGR through 2028. Thereafter, the growth slows gradually to 10% by 2031 and continues at the terminal growth rate of 5%. I assume XPeng will capture 50% of sales as FCF. I use a 13% discount rate to arrive at the discounted present value of future cash flow.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d26c909caf45b9ea96b0960fd37dcd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The critical assumptions in market shares and a 30% CAGR, I believe, are conservative. I arrive at a $133.5B USD valuation for the XPeng Robotaxi business, a 350% upside to its current valuations and in addition to its vehicle sales business. I would argue that only $9B is priced in when the stock appreciated after the robotaxi announcement. Long-term investors can consider attractive points to enter. As we approach the pilot launch in 2022, more and more of the upside may be priced in with additional announcements.</p><p><blockquote>我使用以下假设进行估值预测。存在高度的不确定性和猜测，因为我预测2025年将出现第一个此类业务，而这个行业至今仍处于萌芽阶段。我预计小鹏汽车在2025年将在robotaxi领域获得5%的市场份额，在食品配送领域获得2.5%的市场份额。到2028年，它将以30%的复合年增长率增长。此后，到2031年，增长逐渐放缓至10%，并继续保持5%的最终增长率。我假设小鹏汽车将获得50%的销售额作为自由现金流。我使用13%的贴现率来得出未来现金流的贴现现值。我认为，市场份额和30%复合年增长率的关键假设是保守的。我对小鹏汽车出租车业务的估值为1335亿美元，比其当前估值上涨350%，此外还有汽车销售业务。我认为，当robotaxi发布后该股升值时，定价中只有90亿美元。长线投资者可以考虑有吸引力的点位入场。随着2022年试点发布的临近，越来越多的上行空间可能会随着更多公告而被定价。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Additional Bull Notes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他牛市票据</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng's core business is currently undervalued relative to its peers. As of 12/9/2021, Tesla is valued at 25 times XPeng and is on track to delivery approximately 7 times more car than XPeng in Q4. Tesla in Q3 grew at a pace of 73% YoY, which XPeng in Q3 grew 199% YoY. Considering XPeng's exceptional growth rate, it is clear XPeng is trading at a substantial discount.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车的核心业务目前相对于同行被低估。截至2021年12月9日，特斯拉的估值是小鹏汽车的25倍，并有望在第四季度交付比小鹏汽车多约7倍的汽车。特斯拉第三季度同比增长73%，其中小鹏汽车第三季度同比增长199%。考虑到小鹏汽车非凡的增长率，很明显小鹏汽车的交易价格大幅折扣。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the robotaxi business and vehicle manufacturing are complementary businesses. Ride-hailing revenue share can incentivize more sales. If forced to own the vehicles, XPeng Motors can sell to XPeng Robotaxi at cost, giving it a substantial cost advantage over competitors.</p><p><blockquote>此外，机器人出租车业务和车辆制造是互补的业务。网约车收入份额可以激励更多销售。如果被迫拥有这些车辆，小鹏汽车可以以成本价出售给小鹏机器人出租车，使其相对于竞争对手具有巨大的成本优势。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to valuations from vehicle sales and robotaxi revenue, other potential valuation upsides exist. XPeng users currently pay monthly subscription fees to use its NGP system. We can expect the subscription uptake rate to improve as more autonomous functions are introduced. With a growing user base and its highly profitable margins, NGP subscription cash flows may grow to rival vehicle sales. We can also expect revenues from eVOTL and robotic pony sales by 2024. These revenues can be significant and are not currently priced in.</p><p><blockquote>除了汽车销量和robotaxi收入的估值外，还存在其他潜在的估值上行空间。小鹏用户目前每月支付订阅费才能使用其NGP系统。随着更多自主功能的引入，我们可以预期订阅率将会提高。随着用户群的不断增长及其高利润率，NGP订阅现金流可能会增长到与汽车销量相媲美的水平。我们还可以预计到2024年，eVOTL和机器人小马的销售收入。这些收入可能很大，但目前尚未计入价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While I believe the technology and cost structure support my bull thesis, uncertainties exist. The revenue is largely dependent on the number of vehicle licenses Chinese regulators will be willing to authorize. Regulatory approvals may be slowed to reduce disruptions to the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我相信技术和成本结构支持我的看涨论点，但不确定性是存在的。收入在很大程度上取决于中国监管机构愿意授权的车辆牌照数量。监管审批可能会放缓，以减少对劳动力市场的干扰。</blockquote></p><p> In the most bearish case, regulators may decline to grant ride-hailing licenses to private autonomous vehicles. This case is highly unlikely. China would be stifling one of its leading-edge industries. There is little rationale for denying XPeng, as both private ride-hailing vehicles and autonomous ride-hailing vehicles are already authorized. However, some cities may require XPeng to own its robotaxi fleet, which will reduce its competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>在最悲观的情况下，监管机构可能会拒绝向私人自动驾驶汽车发放网约车牌照。这种情况极不可能发生。中国将扼杀其领先行业之一。拒绝小鹏汽车的理由很少，因为私人网约车和自动驾驶网约车都已经获得授权。然而，一些城市可能会要求小鹏汽车拥有其robotaxi车队，这将降低其竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> Tiger Securities gave a bearish review of XPeng, citing that the current laws prohibit autonomous operations, and other players \"might have time to catch up.\" It is important to study the autonomy capabilities of other players and estimate that likelihood. Judging from FSD beta tester videos, Tesla (TSLA) autonomy is somewhat behind that of XPeng's. Though with its wealth of data, Tesla may be able to quickly catch up. Regardless, Tesla FSD and XPeng NGP are coded for different driving environments. They most likely will not directly compete in robotaxi until later in the decade and in other markets than US or China. In China, Huawei Harmony intelligent driving system has also demonstrated a high level of autonomy. Huawei however is not a vehicle manufacturer. Its EV partner BAIC Arcfox is lagging quite far behind in sales compared to other EV peers. Current robotaxi firms like Baidu and Pony.ai may be able to substantially reduce the retrofit cost and may even adapt their system to a mass-market vehicle. It is unclear if it is possible for a hardware-centric robotaxi system based on powerful roof sensors to adapt to an array of weaker sensors that require greater AI logic.</p><p><blockquote>老虎证券对小鹏汽车给出了看跌评级，理由是现行法律禁止自动驾驶，其他玩家“可能有时间赶上”。研究其他参与者的自主能力并估计这种可能性是很重要的。从FSD beta测试人员视频来看，特斯拉（TSLA）的自主性有些落后于小鹏汽车。尽管凭借丰富的数据，特斯拉或许能够迅速赶上。无论如何，特斯拉FSD和小鹏NGP都是针对不同的驾驶环境进行编码的。他们很可能要到本世纪晚些时候才会在机器人出租车领域以及美国或中国以外的其他市场直接竞争。在中国，华为Harmony智能驾驶系统也展现了高度的自动驾驶水平。然而，华为不是一家汽车制造商。与其他电动汽车同行相比，其电动汽车合作伙伴北汽Arcfox的销量远远落后。百度和小马智行等当前的机器人出租车公司可能能够大幅降低改造成本，甚至可能使其系统适应大众市场车辆。目前尚不清楚基于强大车顶传感器的以硬件为中心的robotaxi系统是否有可能适应一系列需要更强人工智能逻辑的较弱传感器。</blockquote></p><p> Capturing a share of the ride-hailing and delivery market in China is highly dependent upon XPeng maintaining technology and cost advantage. It would be fair to attribute a large risk discount to the valuation. Though any shortfall in market share can be supplemented by international markets.</p><p><blockquote>在中国网约车和送货市场占据份额高度依赖于小鹏汽车保持技术和成本优势。将较大的风险折扣归因于估值是公平的。尽管市场份额的任何不足都可以通过国际市场来补充。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, there are geopolitical and specific delisting risks to investing in Chinese stocks in the form of ADRs. XPeng and some other US-listed ADRs have also listed in Hong Kong to hedge against the possibilities of delisting. In the event of delisting, US shareholders will be able to trade their shares for Hong Kong-listed shares. Those who cannot or are not willing to bank in Hong Kong will exist long positions. Share prices may be moderately depressed in the short and medium-term. It is fair to attribute some risk premium to Chinese ADRs. Though I would argue that such discounts are already priced, and in fact, the market has overreacted to recent news.</p><p><blockquote>最后，以ADR形式投资中国股票存在地缘政治和特定的退市风险。小鹏汽车和其他一些在美国上市的美国存托凭证也在香港上市，以对冲退市的可能性。如果退市，美国股东将能够将其股票交易为香港上市股票。那些不能或不愿意在香港办理银行业务的人将持有多头头寸。中短期内股价可能会适度低迷。将部分风险溢价归因于中国ADR是公平的。尽管我认为这种折扣已经定价，事实上，市场对最近的消息反应过度了。</blockquote></p><p> To Conclude</p><p><blockquote>得出结论</blockquote></p><p> XPEV has earned an average consensus of \"Buy\" recommendations from analysts. XPeng is also one of the fastest-growing pure-play EV companies in the world, growing at the rate of 188% YoY for Q3 2021 and 270% YoY for the month of November 2021. Considering its tremendous growth rate, its share price is undervalued and attractive to own. Furthermore, I argue in this article that XPeng is poised to realize an additional 350% upside to its valuation, as the company enters the ride-hailing market through its autonomous driving technology. While it may take several years for XPeng to fully realize its robotaxi ambitions, time may be running out to buy XPEV at a cheap price. Therefore, I advise investors to buy and hold for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV获得了分析师平均一致的“买入”建议。小鹏汽车也是全球增长最快的纯电动汽车公司之一，2021年第三季度同比增长188%，2021年11月同比增长270%。考虑到其巨大的增长率，其股价被低估且具有吸引力。此外，我在本文中认为，随着小鹏汽车通过自动驾驶技术进入网约车市场，其估值有望实现350%的额外上涨。虽然小鹏汽车可能需要几年时间才能完全实现其robotaxi雄心，但以低廉的价格购买XPEV的时间可能已经不多了。因此，我建议投资者买入并长期持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476638-xpeng-forecasting-its-expansion-into-robotaxi\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476638-xpeng-forecasting-its-expansion-into-robotaxi","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126351388","content_text":"Summary\n\nXPeng is poised to disrupt the incumbent robotaxi and ride-hailing firms.\nUsing an AI-centric approach with small sensors, XPeng will be able to operate at a substantially lower cost.\nWinning a market share of the ride-hailing industry implies significant upside valuation potential for XPEV.\n\nXPeng Motors (XPEV) recently announced the company will launch a pilot program for autonomous driving ride-hailing service in the second half of 2022. This announcement generated multiple positive news articles, and the company's valuation rose in response. However, most if not all articles failed to appreciate a significant implication. XPeng will be the first vehicle manufacturer to enter the autonomous ride-hailing market with its mass-market production vehicles. With this announcement, XPeng implies their privately-owned vehicles will be able to match the autonomous capabilities of robotaxi firms like Waymo, Cruise, or Baidu (BIDU), and that XPeng can generate similar revenues without the added cost of robotaxi retrofit and potentially the cost of the vehicles themselves. With its substantial cost advantages, the company is poised to capture a large portion of the ride-hailing market and realize a significant valuation upside.\nAssumptions\nHere, I make a large assumption that the pilot program will take two years to complete, and full-scale commercial operations and revenue generations will begin at the start of 2025. There exists a large degree of uncertainty with this timeline. It is largely dependent on the pace of ADAS technology development and regulatory approvals.\nXPeng has recently released the Xpilot 3.5 system with the model P5. There are multiple YouTube videos where professional reviewers ride the city NGP (Navigation Guided Pilot) 3.5 system. Here's a video clip during the XPeng Tech Day. The demonstrations consistently navigated challenging routes with few disengagements. The reviewers unanimously found the system impressive. XPeng also announced the release of the Xpilot 4.0 system with its new SUV model G9. The company expects that the 4.0 system will be live in 2023 and will be able to autonomously pilot almost all roads in China with zero disengagements. Such performance will be technologically sufficient to operate a robotaxi business.\nWe have seen past timelines with Baidu Apollo and Pony.ai services. In November, the city of Beijing granted full commercial operation licenses to robotaxi services. It had taken a little over two years from pilot debut to limited commercialization. Baidu expects other major cities to follow Beijing's lead early next year. If XPeng is to follow the timeline, it can expect to receive commercial licenses for revenue generation in early 2025. However, Baidu and regulators have been exploring a nascent industry and building a regulatory framework. I believe it is likely that the approval of XPeng robotaxis will be considerably faster, as the approval process can take advantage of existing guidelines.\nTherefore, the trends of XPeng's ADAS technology and China's regulatory framework both support the assumption of 2025 revenue realization, and this assumption may be conservative.\nRevenue and CostRobotaxi Economics\nAfter receiving commercial licenses, Baidu has announced that it is charging above-market fees. Baidu has a limited number of commercial licenses, and the demand is excessive due to the novelty factor. As it scales into larger operations, the fee structure is likely to come down and undercut the main competitor DiDi (DIDI), which charges $.7 - $2/mile depending on a variety of factors and level of service. For comparable service to Baidu Apollo cars in operation, DiDi charges about $1/mile, according to Lux Research Inc's articleThe Economics of Robotaxis.\nThe article also estimates a robotaxi costs $0.28/mile to operate in China. On paper, Baidu should be able to maintain a healthy profit margin, charge lower than DiDi, and gain significant market share. If we examine the cost trends, the advantages of robotaxi widen even further. The largest cost driver of DiDi is labor, which is rising in China and around the world. Out of the operation costs of robotaxis, maintenance cost is expected to trend down as EV quality improves. Insurance cost is expected to trend down as large robotaxi firms can insure their own operations. Added value cost is expected to trend down as the autonomous driving sensors are falling sharply in prices. Vehicle cost may rise moderately but the economy of scale should keep the rate of materials inflation under that of wage inflation. Therefore, Lux Research Inc concludes, and I agree, that robotaxi operations will be disruptive to incumbent ride-hailing companies. However, how does XPeng fit into this picture?\nXPeng Disruptions\nThe cost analysis shows XPeng's robotaxis will further disrupt the nascent robotaxi companies. XPeng vehicles with Xpilot 4.0 do not require retrofit to operate as a robotaxi. Lux Research estimates the robotaxis like the Baidu Apollo cost about $0.15/mile to operate in terms of vehicle and added value retrofit costs. In June 2021, Baidu announced its Apollo Moon robotaxi will cost 480,000 yuan ($75,000) to produce, according to thisNikkei articleand other publications. On the other hand, the XPeng G9 with XPilot 4.0 is expected to cost between 350,000 to 400,000 yuan to the consumers. If we roughly estimate 15% profit margin and 15% selling and marketing costs, the G9 costs XPeng approximately between 245,000 to 280,000 yuan to produce. Therefore, XPeng will be able to operate with 42-49% less vehicle cost compared to Baidu Apollo.\nFurthermore, XPeng robotaxi can potentially operate without a vehicle cost at all. By 2025, there are expected to be hundreds of thousands of XPeng EVs on the road that can operate as robotaxi with an OTA update. Just as Uber and DiDi hire gig drivers, XPeng can theoretically hire private autonomous cars and pay the owners a share of the revenue.\nFinally, robotaxi companies like Baidu must maintain high margins to bear its significant overhead costs in R&D and SGA. XPeng Motors vehicle sales bear the majority of the R&D and SGA costs. Additional indirect costs from robotaxi business should be a small fraction of the cost structure of incumbent ride-hailing companies. If XPeng is to launch robotaxi today, it can theoretically charge $0.50/mile at a cost of $0.205/mile. (Its vehicle cost is $0.075/mile cheaper than Baidu, which cost about $0.28/mile to operate.) Such a price point cannot be matched by Baidu or DiDi and will substantially displace their market share. In fact, DiDi's breakeven price point is most likely higher than $0.90/mile. Therefore, I conclude it is likely that XPeng will be charge half of the fees of Baidu and DiDi and still maintain healthy profit margins.\nMarket Trends and Projections\nRobotaxis are expected to disrupt the ride-hailing industry. Major players like DiDi and Uber (UBER) are aware of this future trend and have spent billions developing autonomy technology themselves. As technologies mature, autonomous vehicles will also be able to encroach into the food delivery business. As a side note, XPeng holds a unique advantage with its advanced robotics division. It is in the process of bringing to market a robotic pony with autonomous terrain navigation capabilities. An online video shows it is currently able to deliver objects around XPeng's office by voice command. Robotics can enable a robotaxi to bridge the gap between the road and the delivery destination.\nFollowing is a graph of the estimated Total Addressable Market of ride-hailing and food delivery in China, according to statista.com.With the assumption that XPeng gains regulatory licenses in 2025, I estimate XPeng Robotaxi business will grow rapidly and hold significant market share in the ride-hailing market and substantial market share in the food delivery market by 2028. Thereafter, XPeng may experience slower growth once other vehicle systems reach sufficient autonomy. I expect XPeng Robotaxi's profit margins will be lower than DiDi's as XPeng pushes a low-cost strategy to displace incumbents. I expect as much as 90% of earnings after taxes will be pure free cash flow, as R&D and SGA costs attributed to the robotaxi division will be low.\nI use the following assumptions for a valuation projection. There are high degrees of uncertainty and conjecture, as I forecast the first business of its kind in 2025, in an industry that is still nascent today. I expect XPeng to gain a 5% market share in robotaxi and a 2.5% market share in food delivery in 2025. It will grow at a 30% CAGR through 2028. Thereafter, the growth slows gradually to 10% by 2031 and continues at the terminal growth rate of 5%. I assume XPeng will capture 50% of sales as FCF. I use a 13% discount rate to arrive at the discounted present value of future cash flow.The critical assumptions in market shares and a 30% CAGR, I believe, are conservative. I arrive at a $133.5B USD valuation for the XPeng Robotaxi business, a 350% upside to its current valuations and in addition to its vehicle sales business. I would argue that only $9B is priced in when the stock appreciated after the robotaxi announcement. Long-term investors can consider attractive points to enter. As we approach the pilot launch in 2022, more and more of the upside may be priced in with additional announcements.\nAdditional Bull Notes\nXPeng's core business is currently undervalued relative to its peers. As of 12/9/2021, Tesla is valued at 25 times XPeng and is on track to delivery approximately 7 times more car than XPeng in Q4. Tesla in Q3 grew at a pace of 73% YoY, which XPeng in Q3 grew 199% YoY. Considering XPeng's exceptional growth rate, it is clear XPeng is trading at a substantial discount.\nFurthermore, the robotaxi business and vehicle manufacturing are complementary businesses. Ride-hailing revenue share can incentivize more sales. If forced to own the vehicles, XPeng Motors can sell to XPeng Robotaxi at cost, giving it a substantial cost advantage over competitors.\nIn addition to valuations from vehicle sales and robotaxi revenue, other potential valuation upsides exist. XPeng users currently pay monthly subscription fees to use its NGP system. We can expect the subscription uptake rate to improve as more autonomous functions are introduced. With a growing user base and its highly profitable margins, NGP subscription cash flows may grow to rival vehicle sales. We can also expect revenues from eVOTL and robotic pony sales by 2024. These revenues can be significant and are not currently priced in.\nRisks and Challenges\nWhile I believe the technology and cost structure support my bull thesis, uncertainties exist. The revenue is largely dependent on the number of vehicle licenses Chinese regulators will be willing to authorize. Regulatory approvals may be slowed to reduce disruptions to the labor market.\nIn the most bearish case, regulators may decline to grant ride-hailing licenses to private autonomous vehicles. This case is highly unlikely. China would be stifling one of its leading-edge industries. There is little rationale for denying XPeng, as both private ride-hailing vehicles and autonomous ride-hailing vehicles are already authorized. However, some cities may require XPeng to own its robotaxi fleet, which will reduce its competitive advantage.\nTiger Securities gave a bearish review of XPeng, citing that the current laws prohibit autonomous operations, and other players \"might have time to catch up.\" It is important to study the autonomy capabilities of other players and estimate that likelihood. Judging from FSD beta tester videos, Tesla (TSLA) autonomy is somewhat behind that of XPeng's. Though with its wealth of data, Tesla may be able to quickly catch up. Regardless, Tesla FSD and XPeng NGP are coded for different driving environments. They most likely will not directly compete in robotaxi until later in the decade and in other markets than US or China. In China, Huawei Harmony intelligent driving system has also demonstrated a high level of autonomy. Huawei however is not a vehicle manufacturer. Its EV partner BAIC Arcfox is lagging quite far behind in sales compared to other EV peers. Current robotaxi firms like Baidu and Pony.ai may be able to substantially reduce the retrofit cost and may even adapt their system to a mass-market vehicle. It is unclear if it is possible for a hardware-centric robotaxi system based on powerful roof sensors to adapt to an array of weaker sensors that require greater AI logic.\nCapturing a share of the ride-hailing and delivery market in China is highly dependent upon XPeng maintaining technology and cost advantage. It would be fair to attribute a large risk discount to the valuation. Though any shortfall in market share can be supplemented by international markets.\nFinally, there are geopolitical and specific delisting risks to investing in Chinese stocks in the form of ADRs. XPeng and some other US-listed ADRs have also listed in Hong Kong to hedge against the possibilities of delisting. In the event of delisting, US shareholders will be able to trade their shares for Hong Kong-listed shares. Those who cannot or are not willing to bank in Hong Kong will exist long positions. Share prices may be moderately depressed in the short and medium-term. It is fair to attribute some risk premium to Chinese ADRs. Though I would argue that such discounts are already priced, and in fact, the market has overreacted to recent news.\nTo Conclude\nXPEV has earned an average consensus of \"Buy\" recommendations from analysts. XPeng is also one of the fastest-growing pure-play EV companies in the world, growing at the rate of 188% YoY for Q3 2021 and 270% YoY for the month of November 2021. Considering its tremendous growth rate, its share price is undervalued and attractive to own. Furthermore, I argue in this article that XPeng is poised to realize an additional 350% upside to its valuation, as the company enters the ride-hailing market through its autonomous driving technology. While it may take several years for XPeng to fully realize its robotaxi ambitions, time may be running out to buy XPEV at a cheap price. Therefore, I advise investors to buy and hold for the long term.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":768,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/698175927"}
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