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2021-12-24
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The Fed Has Created the Monster Market: What's in Store for 2022?<blockquote>美联储创造了怪物市场：2022 年将会发生什么？</blockquote>
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T","content":"<p>The year 2021 should be labeled as the one that confounded even the most experienced of investors. Two years after the pandemic where the global central banks flushed the market with unimaginable liquidity in a short period of time to boost an economy that came to a grinding halt, one wonders why the U.S. central bank is still adding net liquidity to the market today, albeit at a slower pace. The Fed's mantra all throughout 2021 has been that \"inflation is transitory.\" But up until recently, when inflation is seen in everything from milk, coffee, rents, lumber, gas, construction, steel... to anything consumer related, even the Fed cannot use this word with a straight face. Using the word transitory loosely can still work if the horizon is anywhere from three months to two years. It seems the bond and rates markets have now forced the hand of the Fed to realize that inflation is certainly not transitory and they need to do something about it.</p><p><blockquote>2021年应该被称为连最有经验的投资者都感到困惑的一年。疫情爆发两年后，全球央行在短时间内向市场注入了难以想象的流动性，以提振陷入停滞的经济，人们不禁要问，为什么美国央行今天仍在向市场增加净流动性，尽管速度较慢。美联储在 2021 年全年的口号一直是“通胀是暂时的”。但直到最近，通货膨胀出现在从牛奶、咖啡、租金、木材、天然气、建筑、钢铁的一切领域……对于任何与消费者相关的事情，即使是美联储也不能板着脸使用这个词。如果时间范围在三个月到两年之间，松散地使用“短暂”这个词仍然有效。债券和利率市场现在似乎迫使美联储意识到通胀肯定不是暂时的，他们需要对此采取措施。</blockquote></p><p> The last two years has seen an \"everything bubble.\" Whether we like to believe it or not, all asset classes have risen with the same tide that the Fed created via its liquidity injection, some just a bit more based on beta and leverage. Many fund managers can use the word \"alpha\" to justify their returns, but in short, this Fed liquidity has distorted a host of asset prices and taking some of the larger ones way beyond their own fundamental value given what real yields and rates had done. A good example is the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and racy tech growth stocks, after rallying in excess of 100%+, they have all now fallen over 50%+ the past few months, when the fundamental picture has not changed.</p><p><blockquote>过去两年出现了“一切泡沫”。不管我们是否愿意相信，所有资产类别都随着美联储通过注入流动性创造的相同浪潮而上涨，有些资产类别只是基于贝塔系数和杠杆率。许多基金经理可以使用“阿尔法”一词来证明他们的回报是合理的，但简而言之，美联储的这种流动性扭曲了大量资产价格，并考虑到实际收益率和利率的影响，使一些较大的资产价格超出了其自身的基本价值。一个很好的例子是 ARK 下一代互联网 ETF (ARKW) 和活跃的科技成长型股票，在上涨超过 100% 以上后，在过去几个月中，它们现在都下跌了 50% 以上，而基本面并没有改变。</blockquote></p><p> And the simple reason is that liquidity is getting less and less in the market as the Fed is slowing down its asset purchases. Most emerging markets central banks and some developed ones have started raising rates, yet the Fed is still buying up to $90B-$100B of assets each month, two years after the pandemic. This at a time when jobless claims are at lows and the economy has recovered close to pre-pandemic levels from the demand side, if not from the employment side. The Fed's target for QE was to get employment back to pre Covid levels, but that goal post is much further now as participation rate has lagged. A lot of people have permanently retired from the workforce and this is something that the Fed is realizing just now.</p><p><blockquote>原因很简单，随着美联储放缓资产购买速度，市场上的流动性越来越少。大多数新兴市场央行和一些发达国家央行已经开始加息，但在大流行两年后，美联储每月仍购买高达 900 亿至 1000 亿美元的资产。此时，申请失业救济人数处于较低水平，经济从需求方面（如果不是从就业方面）已恢复接近大流行前的水平。美联储量化宽松的目标是让就业回到新冠疫情前的水平，但由于参与率滞后，这一目标现在要远得多。许多人已经永久退出劳动力市场，这是美联储现在正在意识到的事情。</blockquote></p><p> The latest FOMC meeting presided by the Fed announced that they would reduce their asset purchases even more aggressively by $30B per month instead of $15B. At this rate, the Fed will end its QE around March 2022. The bigger question now is how soon and how fast will the Fed start to raise rates? The market is pricing in about three rate hikes just in 2022 alone. If supply chain shortages persist, inflation is not expected to come down any time soon. As we enter 2022, we are entering an economy that is robust but at risk of plateauing post the liquidity induced demand surge, and with heightened inflation not seen since the 1980s! The year over year CPI rate is averaging between 6%-7% now, and it is at an alarmingly uncomfortable level. We are entering 2022 in a slight stagflationary environment, one that has not been seen or traded by the majority of traders that now exist in the market.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主持的最新联邦公开市场委员会会议宣布，他们将更积极地每月减少 300 亿美元的资产购买，而不是 150 亿美元。按照这个速度，美联储将在2022年3月左右结束量化宽松。现在更大的问题是美联储多久、多快开始加息？市场预计仅在 2022 年就会加息约三次。如果供应链短缺持续，通胀预计不会很快下降。随着我们进入 2022 年，我们正在进入一个强劲的经济，但在流动性引发的需求激增后面临趋于平稳的风险，并且通胀加剧，这是自 20 世纪 80 年代以来从未见过的!CPI同比增长率目前平均在6%-7%之间，处于令人担忧的水平。我们将在轻微的滞胀环境中进入2022年，这是目前市场上的大多数交易者没有看到或交易的环境。</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there is still net liquidity being added to the market, and that could be one of the main reasons why the S&P 500 will hold up well here, but one wonders whether it can hold these levels in Q1 when fed balance sheet stops increasing altogether. Perhaps it is time for investors to stop focusing on Meme stocks or bankrupt stocks trying \"to make a quick buck\", squeezing out shorts via buying upside calls. Perhaps the market will return to some sort of rational behavior and display some economics 101 characteristics. One thing is for sure, asset allocation will need to shift into assets that are more inflation protected, hard assets like precious metals. Will 2022 finally be the year for gold?</p><p><blockquote>目前，市场仍有净流动性增加，这可能是标普500在这里表现良好的主要原因之一，但人们不禁要问，当美联储资产负债表完全停止增长时，它是否能在第一季度保持这些水平。也许投资者是时候停止关注模因股票或试图“赚快钱”的破产股票，通过购买上行评级来挤出空头了。也许市场会回到某种理性行为，并表现出一些经济学101的特征。有一点是肯定的，资产配置需要转向更受通胀保护的资产，如贵金属。2022年最终会成为黄金之年吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619508253632","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Has Created the Monster Market: What's in Store for 2022?<blockquote>美联储创造了怪物市场：2022 年将会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Has Created the Monster Market: What's in Store for 2022?<blockquote>美联储创造了怪物市场：2022 年将会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Realmoney</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 17:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The year 2021 should be labeled as the one that confounded even the most experienced of investors. Two years after the pandemic where the global central banks flushed the market with unimaginable liquidity in a short period of time to boost an economy that came to a grinding halt, one wonders why the U.S. central bank is still adding net liquidity to the market today, albeit at a slower pace. The Fed's mantra all throughout 2021 has been that \"inflation is transitory.\" But up until recently, when inflation is seen in everything from milk, coffee, rents, lumber, gas, construction, steel... to anything consumer related, even the Fed cannot use this word with a straight face. Using the word transitory loosely can still work if the horizon is anywhere from three months to two years. It seems the bond and rates markets have now forced the hand of the Fed to realize that inflation is certainly not transitory and they need to do something about it.</p><p><blockquote>2021年应该被称为连最有经验的投资者都感到困惑的一年。疫情爆发两年后，全球央行在短时间内向市场注入了难以想象的流动性，以提振陷入停滞的经济，人们不禁要问，为什么美国央行今天仍在向市场增加净流动性，尽管速度较慢。美联储在 2021 年全年的口号一直是“通胀是暂时的”。但直到最近，通货膨胀出现在从牛奶、咖啡、租金、木材、天然气、建筑、钢铁的一切领域……对于任何与消费者相关的事情，即使是美联储也不能板着脸使用这个词。如果时间范围在三个月到两年之间，松散地使用“短暂”这个词仍然有效。债券和利率市场现在似乎迫使美联储意识到通胀肯定不是暂时的，他们需要对此采取措施。</blockquote></p><p> The last two years has seen an \"everything bubble.\" Whether we like to believe it or not, all asset classes have risen with the same tide that the Fed created via its liquidity injection, some just a bit more based on beta and leverage. Many fund managers can use the word \"alpha\" to justify their returns, but in short, this Fed liquidity has distorted a host of asset prices and taking some of the larger ones way beyond their own fundamental value given what real yields and rates had done. A good example is the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and racy tech growth stocks, after rallying in excess of 100%+, they have all now fallen over 50%+ the past few months, when the fundamental picture has not changed.</p><p><blockquote>过去两年出现了“一切泡沫”。不管我们是否愿意相信，所有资产类别都随着美联储通过注入流动性创造的相同浪潮而上涨，有些资产类别只是基于贝塔系数和杠杆率。许多基金经理可以使用“阿尔法”一词来证明他们的回报是合理的，但简而言之，美联储的这种流动性扭曲了大量资产价格，并考虑到实际收益率和利率的影响，使一些较大的资产价格超出了其自身的基本价值。一个很好的例子是 ARK 下一代互联网 ETF (ARKW) 和活跃的科技成长型股票，在上涨超过 100% 以上后，在过去几个月中，它们现在都下跌了 50% 以上，而基本面并没有改变。</blockquote></p><p> And the simple reason is that liquidity is getting less and less in the market as the Fed is slowing down its asset purchases. Most emerging markets central banks and some developed ones have started raising rates, yet the Fed is still buying up to $90B-$100B of assets each month, two years after the pandemic. This at a time when jobless claims are at lows and the economy has recovered close to pre-pandemic levels from the demand side, if not from the employment side. The Fed's target for QE was to get employment back to pre Covid levels, but that goal post is much further now as participation rate has lagged. A lot of people have permanently retired from the workforce and this is something that the Fed is realizing just now.</p><p><blockquote>原因很简单，随着美联储放缓资产购买速度，市场上的流动性越来越少。大多数新兴市场央行和一些发达国家央行已经开始加息，但在大流行两年后，美联储每月仍购买高达 900 亿至 1000 亿美元的资产。此时，申请失业救济人数处于较低水平，经济从需求方面（如果不是从就业方面）已恢复接近大流行前的水平。美联储量化宽松的目标是让就业回到新冠疫情前的水平，但由于参与率滞后，这一目标现在要远得多。许多人已经永久退出劳动力市场，这是美联储现在正在意识到的事情。</blockquote></p><p> The latest FOMC meeting presided by the Fed announced that they would reduce their asset purchases even more aggressively by $30B per month instead of $15B. At this rate, the Fed will end its QE around March 2022. The bigger question now is how soon and how fast will the Fed start to raise rates? The market is pricing in about three rate hikes just in 2022 alone. If supply chain shortages persist, inflation is not expected to come down any time soon. As we enter 2022, we are entering an economy that is robust but at risk of plateauing post the liquidity induced demand surge, and with heightened inflation not seen since the 1980s! The year over year CPI rate is averaging between 6%-7% now, and it is at an alarmingly uncomfortable level. We are entering 2022 in a slight stagflationary environment, one that has not been seen or traded by the majority of traders that now exist in the market.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主持的最新联邦公开市场委员会会议宣布，他们将更积极地每月减少 300 亿美元的资产购买，而不是 150 亿美元。按照这个速度，美联储将在2022年3月左右结束量化宽松。现在更大的问题是美联储多久、多快开始加息？市场预计仅在 2022 年就会加息约三次。如果供应链短缺持续，通胀预计不会很快下降。随着我们进入 2022 年，我们正在进入一个强劲的经济，但在流动性引发的需求激增后面临趋于平稳的风险，并且通胀加剧，这是自 20 世纪 80 年代以来从未见过的!CPI同比增长率目前平均在6%-7%之间，处于令人担忧的水平。我们将在轻微的滞胀环境中进入2022年，这是目前市场上的大多数交易者没有看到或交易的环境。</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there is still net liquidity being added to the market, and that could be one of the main reasons why the S&P 500 will hold up well here, but one wonders whether it can hold these levels in Q1 when fed balance sheet stops increasing altogether. Perhaps it is time for investors to stop focusing on Meme stocks or bankrupt stocks trying \"to make a quick buck\", squeezing out shorts via buying upside calls. Perhaps the market will return to some sort of rational behavior and display some economics 101 characteristics. One thing is for sure, asset allocation will need to shift into assets that are more inflation protected, hard assets like precious metals. Will 2022 finally be the year for gold?</p><p><blockquote>目前，市场仍有净流动性增加，这可能是标普500在这里表现良好的主要原因之一，但人们不禁要问，当美联储资产负债表完全停止增长时，它是否能在第一季度保持这些水平。也许投资者是时候停止关注模因股票或试图“赚快钱”的破产股票，通过购买上行评级来挤出空头了。也许市场会回到某种理性行为，并表现出一些经济学101的特征。有一点是肯定的，资产配置需要转向更受通胀保护的资产，如贵金属。2022年最终会成为黄金之年吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/the-fed-has-created-the-monster-market-what-s-in-store-for-2022--15869560\">Realmoney</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/the-fed-has-created-the-monster-market-what-s-in-store-for-2022--15869560","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168664020","content_text":"The year 2021 should be labeled as the one that confounded even the most experienced of investors. Two years after the pandemic where the global central banks flushed the market with unimaginable liquidity in a short period of time to boost an economy that came to a grinding halt, one wonders why the U.S. central bank is still adding net liquidity to the market today, albeit at a slower pace. The Fed's mantra all throughout 2021 has been that \"inflation is transitory.\" But up until recently, when inflation is seen in everything from milk, coffee, rents, lumber, gas, construction, steel... to anything consumer related, even the Fed cannot use this word with a straight face. Using the word transitory loosely can still work if the horizon is anywhere from three months to two years. It seems the bond and rates markets have now forced the hand of the Fed to realize that inflation is certainly not transitory and they need to do something about it.\nThe last two years has seen an \"everything bubble.\" Whether we like to believe it or not, all asset classes have risen with the same tide that the Fed created via its liquidity injection, some just a bit more based on beta and leverage. Many fund managers can use the word \"alpha\" to justify their returns, but in short, this Fed liquidity has distorted a host of asset prices and taking some of the larger ones way beyond their own fundamental value given what real yields and rates had done. A good example is the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and racy tech growth stocks, after rallying in excess of 100%+, they have all now fallen over 50%+ the past few months, when the fundamental picture has not changed.\nAnd the simple reason is that liquidity is getting less and less in the market as the Fed is slowing down its asset purchases. Most emerging markets central banks and some developed ones have started raising rates, yet the Fed is still buying up to $90B-$100B of assets each month, two years after the pandemic. This at a time when jobless claims are at lows and the economy has recovered close to pre-pandemic levels from the demand side, if not from the employment side. The Fed's target for QE was to get employment back to pre Covid levels, but that goal post is much further now as participation rate has lagged. A lot of people have permanently retired from the workforce and this is something that the Fed is realizing just now.\nThe latest FOMC meeting presided by the Fed announced that they would reduce their asset purchases even more aggressively by $30B per month instead of $15B. At this rate, the Fed will end its QE around March 2022. The bigger question now is how soon and how fast will the Fed start to raise rates? The market is pricing in about three rate hikes just in 2022 alone. If supply chain shortages persist, inflation is not expected to come down any time soon. As we enter 2022, we are entering an economy that is robust but at risk of plateauing post the liquidity induced demand surge, and with heightened inflation not seen since the 1980s! The year over year CPI rate is averaging between 6%-7% now, and it is at an alarmingly uncomfortable level. We are entering 2022 in a slight stagflationary environment, one that has not been seen or traded by the majority of traders that now exist in the market.\nAt the moment, there is still net liquidity being added to the market, and that could be one of the main reasons why the S&P 500 will hold up well here, but one wonders whether it can hold these levels in Q1 when fed balance sheet stops increasing altogether. Perhaps it is time for investors to stop focusing on Meme stocks or bankrupt stocks trying \"to make a quick buck\", squeezing out shorts via buying upside calls. Perhaps the market will return to some sort of rational behavior and display some economics 101 characteristics. One thing is for sure, asset allocation will need to shift into assets that are more inflation protected, hard assets like precious metals. Will 2022 finally be the year for gold?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3738,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/698698203"}
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