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2021-12-27
Rally again!
Wall Street Bets S&P 500 Will Say Goodbye to Outsize Stock Gains in 2022<blockquote>华尔街押注标普500将在 2022 年告别股价大幅上涨</blockquote>
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Many investors aren’t expec","content":"<p>U.S. stocks are on track to end 2021 with another year of outsize gains. Many investors aren’t expecting a repeat in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市有望在 2021 年底迎来又一年大幅上涨。许多投资者预计 2022 年不会重演。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 has climbed 26% so far in 2021, after rising 16% in 2020. Rip-roaring corporate profits and easy monetary policy have fueled the run. Earnings growth is expected to moderate next year, and the Federal Reserve is pursuing plans to raise interest rates, chipping away at key supports for the stock market’s rally.</p><p><blockquote>继 2020 年上涨 16% 之后，2021 年迄今已上涨 26%。暴涨的企业利润和宽松的货币政策助长了这场挤兑。预计明年盈利增长将放缓，美联储正在推行加息计划，削弱股市反弹的关键支撑位。</blockquote></p><p> When rates are low, investors tend to load up on risk assets such as stocks to generate returns. When inflation accelerates and policy makers raise interest rates, the value of companies’ future earnings drops and investors have more alternatives for places to make money.</p><p><blockquote>当利率较低时，投资者倾向于买入股票等风险资产以产生回报。当通货膨胀加速，政策制定者提高利率时，公司未来盈利的价值就会下降，投资者就有了更多赚钱的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Rock-bottom interest rates early in 2020 helped propel equity valuations higher, and they have remained elevated in the months since. Many analysts and investors now believe that increasing rates are likely to keep valuations from rising further, and might cause them to fall.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年初的最低利率帮助推高了股票估值，并且在此后的几个月里一直保持在高位。许多分析师和投资者现在认为，加息可能会阻止估值进一步上升，并可能导致估值下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Though stock indexes often continue to rise early in a cycle of interest-rate increases, tighter monetary policy puts portfolio managers on a shorter leash and makes many of them guarded about taking on more risk.</p><p><blockquote>尽管在加息周期的早期，股票指数通常会继续上涨，但收紧的货币政策让投资组合经理的时间变得更短，并使他们中的许多人对承担更多风险持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> “We know there’s going to be a rate hike,” said Tiffany Wade, senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. “How soon before that do you start to position around valuations maybe coming off?”</p><p><blockquote>“Columbia Threadneedle Investments 高级投资组合经理蒂芙尼-韦德（Tiffany Wade）说：”我们知道将会加息。“在此之前，你多久会开始围绕可能下跌的估值进行定位？”</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 traded last week at about 21 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, above a five-year average of a little less than 19 times, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>根据 FactSet 的数据，标普500上周的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预期市盈率的 21 倍，高于略低于 19 倍的五年平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Some strategists think the shift in monetary policy could help limit stock gains to levels more in keeping with their long-term trend. The S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 8.4% from 1957, the year it was introduced, through last year. But it is coming off three much stronger years. The index jumped 29% in 2019, even more than its advances in 2020 and so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>一些策略师认为，货币政策的转变可能有助于将股票涨幅限制在更符合长期趋势的水平。从1957年推出的那一年到去年，标普500的平均年增长率为8.4%。但它即将迎来更加强劲的三年。该指数在2019年上涨了29%，甚至超过了2020年和2021年迄今为止的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s not normal,” said Joseph Amato, president and chief investment officer of equities at asset manager Neuberger Berman. “That’s been an extraordinary period of return, and our expectation is you’re not going to see that kind of market performance in ’22.”</p><p><blockquote>“资产管理公司 Neuberger Berman 总裁兼股票首席投资官约瑟夫-阿马托（Joseph Amato）说：”这不正常。“那是一个非同寻常的回报期，我们预计 22 年不会有这样的市场表现。”</blockquote></p><p> There is reason, of course, to be humble about stock predictions: Analysts can’t forecast world events, or even how the market will react to them. Many analysts thought stocks would plunge throughout 2020 after the Covid-19 pandemic hit the U.S. A year ago, analysts underestimated the strength of the market’s 2021 rally.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们有理由对股票预测保持谦逊： 分析师无法预测世界大事，甚至无法预测市场会如何反应。许多分析师认为，在 Covid-19 大流行袭击美国后，股市将在 2020 年全年暴跌。一年前，分析师低估了市场 2021 年反弹的力度。</blockquote></p><p> “One year is such a short period that it’s really hard to accurately forecast where stocks will be in a year from now,” said Aneet Chachra, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.</p><p><blockquote>“Janus Henderson Investors 投资组合经理 Aneet Chachra 说：”一年的时间很短，很难准确预测一年后股市的走势。</blockquote></p><p> Still, many of the structures that have supported the market will fade next year. Gains in 2020 and 2021 have been propped up by government spending and central-bank interventions, including the near-zero interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多支撑市场的结构将在明年消失。2020 年和 2021 年的收益受到政府支出和央行干预（包括接近于零的利率）的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> This month the Fed laid the groundwork for interest-rate increases starting as early as next spring and approved plans to wind down a bond-buying stimulus program more quickly. Democrats’ roughly $2 trillion education, healthcare and climate package faces an uncertain future after Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.) said last week he would oppose it.</p><p><blockquote>本月，美联储为最早明年春季开始加息奠定了基础，并批准了更快结束债券购买刺激计划的计划。民主党约2万亿美元的教育、医疗和气候一揽子计划面临着不确定的未来，因为参议员乔-曼钦（Joe Manchin，民主党，西弗吉尼亚州）上周表示他将反对该计划。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street strategists are forecasting smaller gains for the S&P 500 in 2022. Among 13 banks and financial services firms whose analysts have published 2022 forecasts, the average target for the S&P 500 to end next year is 4940, about 4.5% above where the index closed Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街策略师预测标普500 2022 年涨幅将较小。在分析师发布 2022 年预测的 13 家银行和金融服务公司中，明年年底标普500的平均目标为 4940 点，比周四指数收盘价高出约 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> On the high end of next year’s projections, strategists at BMO Capital Markets are forecasting the S&P 500 will finish 2022 at 5300, 12% above its current level. The BMO team expects company earnings growth will help push stocks higher.</p><p><blockquote>蒙特利尔银行资本市场（BMO Capital Markets）的策略师预测，标普500 2022年底将达到5300点，比目前水平高出12%。BMO 团队预计公司盈利增长将有助于推高股价。</blockquote></p><p> Strategists at Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, said their central scenario was for the S&P 500 to end the year at 4400, a drop of 6.9%. They expect price/earnings multiples to fall next year as bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根士丹利的策略师表示，他们的中心情景是标普500年底收于 4400 点，下跌 6.9%。他们预计，随着债券收益率上升，明年市盈率将下降。</blockquote></p><p> Slimmed-down valuations would be especially significant for a stock index such as the S&P 500, since it is driven by big tech stocks that often trade at high multiples.Microsoft Corp.,Nvidia Corp.,Apple Inc.,Alphabet Inc.andTeslaInc.recently accounted for about one-third of the benchmark’s gains this year. Tesla traded last week at about 123 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, while Nvidia traded at about 58 times.</p><p><blockquote>微软公司、英伟达公司、苹果公司、Alphabet公司和特斯拉公司最近约占该基准今年涨幅的三分之一。特斯拉上周的市盈率约为其未来 12 个月预期市盈率的 123 倍，而英伟达的市盈率约为 58 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Profits at big U.S. companies are expected to grow next year, though at a slower pace than this year’s surge. Analysts estimate that earnings from S&P 500 companies will rise 9.2% in 2022, according to FactSet, down from the predicted 45% profit growth in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>美国大公司的利润预计明年将增长，但增长速度将低于今年的增长速度。FactSet 的数据显示，分析师预计 2022 年标普500公司的盈利将增长 9.2%，低于 2021 年 45% 的利润增长预测。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Still, many investors said that earnings are a reason to be confident that the market rally can last.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多投资者表示，盈利是对市场反弹能够持续充满信心的一个理由。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s easy to find a lot of things that can go wrong,” said Steve Kolano, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Investor Solutions. “At the end of the day, earnings drive the equity markets.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约梅隆银行投资者解决方案公司首席投资官史蒂夫-科拉诺（Steve Kolano）说：”很容易发现很多可能出错的事情。“归根结底，盈利推动股市走势。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Bets S&P 500 Will Say Goodbye to Outsize Stock Gains in 2022<blockquote>华尔街押注标普500将在 2022 年告别股价大幅上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Bets S&P 500 Will Say Goodbye to Outsize Stock Gains in 2022<blockquote>华尔街押注标普500将在 2022 年告别股价大幅上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-27 07:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks are on track to end 2021 with another year of outsize gains. Many investors aren’t expecting a repeat in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市有望在 2021 年底迎来又一年大幅上涨。许多投资者预计 2022 年不会重演。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 has climbed 26% so far in 2021, after rising 16% in 2020. Rip-roaring corporate profits and easy monetary policy have fueled the run. Earnings growth is expected to moderate next year, and the Federal Reserve is pursuing plans to raise interest rates, chipping away at key supports for the stock market’s rally.</p><p><blockquote>继 2020 年上涨 16% 之后，2021 年迄今已上涨 26%。暴涨的企业利润和宽松的货币政策助长了这场挤兑。预计明年盈利增长将放缓，美联储正在推行加息计划，削弱股市反弹的关键支撑位。</blockquote></p><p> When rates are low, investors tend to load up on risk assets such as stocks to generate returns. When inflation accelerates and policy makers raise interest rates, the value of companies’ future earnings drops and investors have more alternatives for places to make money.</p><p><blockquote>当利率较低时，投资者倾向于买入股票等风险资产以产生回报。当通货膨胀加速，政策制定者提高利率时，公司未来盈利的价值就会下降，投资者就有了更多赚钱的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Rock-bottom interest rates early in 2020 helped propel equity valuations higher, and they have remained elevated in the months since. Many analysts and investors now believe that increasing rates are likely to keep valuations from rising further, and might cause them to fall.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年初的最低利率帮助推高了股票估值，并且在此后的几个月里一直保持在高位。许多分析师和投资者现在认为，加息可能会阻止估值进一步上升，并可能导致估值下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Though stock indexes often continue to rise early in a cycle of interest-rate increases, tighter monetary policy puts portfolio managers on a shorter leash and makes many of them guarded about taking on more risk.</p><p><blockquote>尽管在加息周期的早期，股票指数通常会继续上涨，但收紧的货币政策让投资组合经理的时间变得更短，并使他们中的许多人对承担更多风险持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> “We know there’s going to be a rate hike,” said Tiffany Wade, senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. “How soon before that do you start to position around valuations maybe coming off?”</p><p><blockquote>“Columbia Threadneedle Investments 高级投资组合经理蒂芙尼-韦德（Tiffany Wade）说：”我们知道将会加息。“在此之前，你多久会开始围绕可能下跌的估值进行定位？”</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 traded last week at about 21 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, above a five-year average of a little less than 19 times, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>根据 FactSet 的数据，标普500上周的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预期市盈率的 21 倍，高于略低于 19 倍的五年平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Some strategists think the shift in monetary policy could help limit stock gains to levels more in keeping with their long-term trend. The S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 8.4% from 1957, the year it was introduced, through last year. But it is coming off three much stronger years. The index jumped 29% in 2019, even more than its advances in 2020 and so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>一些策略师认为，货币政策的转变可能有助于将股票涨幅限制在更符合长期趋势的水平。从1957年推出的那一年到去年，标普500的平均年增长率为8.4%。但它即将迎来更加强劲的三年。该指数在2019年上涨了29%，甚至超过了2020年和2021年迄今为止的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s not normal,” said Joseph Amato, president and chief investment officer of equities at asset manager Neuberger Berman. “That’s been an extraordinary period of return, and our expectation is you’re not going to see that kind of market performance in ’22.”</p><p><blockquote>“资产管理公司 Neuberger Berman 总裁兼股票首席投资官约瑟夫-阿马托（Joseph Amato）说：”这不正常。“那是一个非同寻常的回报期，我们预计 22 年不会有这样的市场表现。”</blockquote></p><p> There is reason, of course, to be humble about stock predictions: Analysts can’t forecast world events, or even how the market will react to them. Many analysts thought stocks would plunge throughout 2020 after the Covid-19 pandemic hit the U.S. A year ago, analysts underestimated the strength of the market’s 2021 rally.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们有理由对股票预测保持谦逊： 分析师无法预测世界大事，甚至无法预测市场会如何反应。许多分析师认为，在 Covid-19 大流行袭击美国后，股市将在 2020 年全年暴跌。一年前，分析师低估了市场 2021 年反弹的力度。</blockquote></p><p> “One year is such a short period that it’s really hard to accurately forecast where stocks will be in a year from now,” said Aneet Chachra, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.</p><p><blockquote>“Janus Henderson Investors 投资组合经理 Aneet Chachra 说：”一年的时间很短，很难准确预测一年后股市的走势。</blockquote></p><p> Still, many of the structures that have supported the market will fade next year. Gains in 2020 and 2021 have been propped up by government spending and central-bank interventions, including the near-zero interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多支撑市场的结构将在明年消失。2020 年和 2021 年的收益受到政府支出和央行干预（包括接近于零的利率）的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> This month the Fed laid the groundwork for interest-rate increases starting as early as next spring and approved plans to wind down a bond-buying stimulus program more quickly. Democrats’ roughly $2 trillion education, healthcare and climate package faces an uncertain future after Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.) said last week he would oppose it.</p><p><blockquote>本月，美联储为最早明年春季开始加息奠定了基础，并批准了更快结束债券购买刺激计划的计划。民主党约2万亿美元的教育、医疗和气候一揽子计划面临着不确定的未来，因为参议员乔-曼钦（Joe Manchin，民主党，西弗吉尼亚州）上周表示他将反对该计划。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street strategists are forecasting smaller gains for the S&P 500 in 2022. Among 13 banks and financial services firms whose analysts have published 2022 forecasts, the average target for the S&P 500 to end next year is 4940, about 4.5% above where the index closed Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街策略师预测标普500 2022 年涨幅将较小。在分析师发布 2022 年预测的 13 家银行和金融服务公司中，明年年底标普500的平均目标为 4940 点，比周四指数收盘价高出约 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> On the high end of next year’s projections, strategists at BMO Capital Markets are forecasting the S&P 500 will finish 2022 at 5300, 12% above its current level. The BMO team expects company earnings growth will help push stocks higher.</p><p><blockquote>蒙特利尔银行资本市场（BMO Capital Markets）的策略师预测，标普500 2022年底将达到5300点，比目前水平高出12%。BMO 团队预计公司盈利增长将有助于推高股价。</blockquote></p><p> Strategists at Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, said their central scenario was for the S&P 500 to end the year at 4400, a drop of 6.9%. They expect price/earnings multiples to fall next year as bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根士丹利的策略师表示，他们的中心情景是标普500年底收于 4400 点，下跌 6.9%。他们预计，随着债券收益率上升，明年市盈率将下降。</blockquote></p><p> Slimmed-down valuations would be especially significant for a stock index such as the S&P 500, since it is driven by big tech stocks that often trade at high multiples.Microsoft Corp.,Nvidia Corp.,Apple Inc.,Alphabet Inc.andTeslaInc.recently accounted for about one-third of the benchmark’s gains this year. Tesla traded last week at about 123 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, while Nvidia traded at about 58 times.</p><p><blockquote>微软公司、英伟达公司、苹果公司、Alphabet公司和特斯拉公司最近约占该基准今年涨幅的三分之一。特斯拉上周的市盈率约为其未来 12 个月预期市盈率的 123 倍，而英伟达的市盈率约为 58 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Profits at big U.S. companies are expected to grow next year, though at a slower pace than this year’s surge. Analysts estimate that earnings from S&P 500 companies will rise 9.2% in 2022, according to FactSet, down from the predicted 45% profit growth in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>美国大公司的利润预计明年将增长，但增长速度将低于今年的增长速度。FactSet 的数据显示，分析师预计 2022 年标普500公司的盈利将增长 9.2%，低于 2021 年 45% 的利润增长预测。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Still, many investors said that earnings are a reason to be confident that the market rally can last.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多投资者表示，盈利是对市场反弹能够持续充满信心的一个理由。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s easy to find a lot of things that can go wrong,” said Steve Kolano, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Investor Solutions. “At the end of the day, earnings drive the equity markets.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约梅隆银行投资者解决方案公司首席投资官史蒂夫-科拉诺（Steve Kolano）说：”很容易发现很多可能出错的事情。“归根结底，盈利推动股市走势。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-bets-s-p-500-will-say-goodbye-to-outsize-stock-gains-in-2022-11640514607?mod=hp_lead_pos3\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-bets-s-p-500-will-say-goodbye-to-outsize-stock-gains-in-2022-11640514607?mod=hp_lead_pos3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152446317","content_text":"U.S. stocks are on track to end 2021 with another year of outsize gains. Many investors aren’t expecting a repeat in 2022.\nThe S&P 500 has climbed 26% so far in 2021, after rising 16% in 2020. Rip-roaring corporate profits and easy monetary policy have fueled the run. Earnings growth is expected to moderate next year, and the Federal Reserve is pursuing plans to raise interest rates, chipping away at key supports for the stock market’s rally.\nWhen rates are low, investors tend to load up on risk assets such as stocks to generate returns. When inflation accelerates and policy makers raise interest rates, the value of companies’ future earnings drops and investors have more alternatives for places to make money.\nRock-bottom interest rates early in 2020 helped propel equity valuations higher, and they have remained elevated in the months since. Many analysts and investors now believe that increasing rates are likely to keep valuations from rising further, and might cause them to fall.\nThough stock indexes often continue to rise early in a cycle of interest-rate increases, tighter monetary policy puts portfolio managers on a shorter leash and makes many of them guarded about taking on more risk.\n“We know there’s going to be a rate hike,” said Tiffany Wade, senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. “How soon before that do you start to position around valuations maybe coming off?”\nThe S&P 500 traded last week at about 21 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, above a five-year average of a little less than 19 times, according to FactSet.\nSome strategists think the shift in monetary policy could help limit stock gains to levels more in keeping with their long-term trend. The S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 8.4% from 1957, the year it was introduced, through last year. But it is coming off three much stronger years. The index jumped 29% in 2019, even more than its advances in 2020 and so far in 2021.\n“That’s not normal,” said Joseph Amato, president and chief investment officer of equities at asset manager Neuberger Berman. “That’s been an extraordinary period of return, and our expectation is you’re not going to see that kind of market performance in ’22.”\nThere is reason, of course, to be humble about stock predictions: Analysts can’t forecast world events, or even how the market will react to them. Many analysts thought stocks would plunge throughout 2020 after the Covid-19 pandemic hit the U.S. A year ago, analysts underestimated the strength of the market’s 2021 rally.\n“One year is such a short period that it’s really hard to accurately forecast where stocks will be in a year from now,” said Aneet Chachra, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.\nStill, many of the structures that have supported the market will fade next year. Gains in 2020 and 2021 have been propped up by government spending and central-bank interventions, including the near-zero interest rates.\nThis month the Fed laid the groundwork for interest-rate increases starting as early as next spring and approved plans to wind down a bond-buying stimulus program more quickly. Democrats’ roughly $2 trillion education, healthcare and climate package faces an uncertain future after Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.) said last week he would oppose it.\nWall Street strategists are forecasting smaller gains for the S&P 500 in 2022. Among 13 banks and financial services firms whose analysts have published 2022 forecasts, the average target for the S&P 500 to end next year is 4940, about 4.5% above where the index closed Thursday.\nOn the high end of next year’s projections, strategists at BMO Capital Markets are forecasting the S&P 500 will finish 2022 at 5300, 12% above its current level. The BMO team expects company earnings growth will help push stocks higher.\nStrategists at Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, said their central scenario was for the S&P 500 to end the year at 4400, a drop of 6.9%. They expect price/earnings multiples to fall next year as bond yields rise.\nSlimmed-down valuations would be especially significant for a stock index such as the S&P 500, since it is driven by big tech stocks that often trade at high multiples.Microsoft Corp.,Nvidia Corp.,Apple Inc.,Alphabet Inc.andTeslaInc.recently accounted for about one-third of the benchmark’s gains this year. Tesla traded last week at about 123 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, while Nvidia traded at about 58 times.\nProfits at big U.S. companies are expected to grow next year, though at a slower pace than this year’s surge. Analysts estimate that earnings from S&P 500 companies will rise 9.2% in 2022, according to FactSet, down from the predicted 45% profit growth in 2021.\nStill, many investors said that earnings are a reason to be confident that the market rally can last.\n“It’s easy to find a lot of things that can go wrong,” said Steve Kolano, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Investor Solutions. “At the end of the day, earnings drive the equity markets.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3593,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/698724857"}
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