LEEQF
2021-12-17
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Plug Power: Shaky Business Model, First-Mover Advantage Is A Myth<blockquote>普拉格能源：商业模式摇摇欲坠，先发优势是神话</blockquote>
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Can help like this comment?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699027836","repostId":1186509817,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186509817","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639726182,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186509817?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 15:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Plug Power: Shaky Business Model, First-Mover Advantage Is A Myth<blockquote>普拉格能源：商业模式摇摇欲坠，先发优势是神话</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186509817","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe more PLUG sells, the more it burns cash, raising profitability concerns.\nHydrogen is a ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The more PLUG sells, the more it burns cash, raising profitability concerns.</li> <li>Hydrogen is a commodity with thin margins, lowering PLUG's commercial appeal.</li> <li>The company is overvalued based on the industrial sector price multiples.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4bd37a3f323fbb395573c8f96229688\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Morsa Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PLUG销量越多，烧钱就越多，引发盈利能力担忧。</li><li>氢气是一种利润微薄的商品，降低了PLUG的商业吸引力。</li><li>根据工业部门价格倍数，该公司被高估。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Morsa Images/DigitalVision来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Since my latest article covering Plug Power (PLUG), which carried a hold rating, shares increased 24%, powered by a revenue momentum bound to new acquisitions and an accommodative regulatory environment that push corporations to seek solutions lowering carbon footprint. These revenue trends will likely continue, but I don't see this creating value for shareholders. Competitive dynamics force PLUG to sell its products at thin margins, and in many cases, below cost. </p><p><blockquote>自从我上一篇报道普拉格能源(PLUG)并给予持有评级以来，在新收购带来的收入势头以及推动企业寻求降低碳足迹的解决方案的宽松监管环境的推动下，该公司股价上涨了24%。这些收入趋势可能会持续下去，但我认为这不会为股东创造价值。竞争动态迫使PLUG以微薄的利润（在许多情况下甚至低于成本）销售其产品。</blockquote></p><p> PLUG utilizes a 200 years old technology, lacking a competitive edge or industrial moat. Despite that, its market cap is equivalent to BAE Systems (OTCPK:BAESF), Europe's largest defense contractor and a pillar of global security. Warren Buffett's test for assessing an investment rationale is to ask if you'd be willing to buy the entire company if given the opportunity instead of its shares. In this case, the question is, if you had $20 billion, would you choose to own the co-developer of the F-35 fighter jets or a fuel cell \"FC\" company using the same battery you built in science class while in middle school? Given its low, competitive moat, thin margins, and high price multiples, I believe PLUG will struggle to provide sustainable capital gains to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>PLUG利用了一项有200年历史的技术，缺乏竞争优势或工业护城河。尽管如此，其市值仍相当于欧洲最大的国防承包商、全球安全支柱BAE Systems（OTCPK：BAESF）。沃伦·巴菲特评估投资理由的测试是，如果有机会，你是否愿意购买整个公司而不是其股票。在这种情况下，问题是，如果你有200亿美元，你会选择拥有F-35战斗机的联合开发商，还是使用你在中学科学课上制造的相同电池的燃料电池“FC”公司？鉴于其较低、具有竞争力的护城河、微薄的利润率和较高的市盈率，我相信PLUG将难以为股东提供可持续的资本收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Moat</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争护城河</b></blockquote></p><p> There is absolutely nothing that PLUG does that General Electric (GE), Honeywell (HON), or Siemens (OTCPK:SIEGY) can't do. PLUG's flagship product is a fuel cell battery relying on a decades-long technology that remained largely the same. It is fair to say that PLUG lacks a competitive moat, and for regulatory purposes, the company discloses this notion in its annual report.</p><p><blockquote>PLUG绝对没有什么是通用电气(GE)、霍尼韦尔(HON)或西门子(OTCPK：SIEGY)做不到的。PLUG的旗舰产品是一种燃料电池，该电池依赖于几十年来基本保持不变的技术。公平地说，PLUG缺乏竞争护城河，出于监管目的，该公司在其年度报告中披露了这一概念。</blockquote></p><p> We believe that neither we nor our competitors can achieve a significant proprietary position on the basic technologies currently used in PEM fuel cell systems - PLUG Annual Report The main problem with FC is running costs. The system is fragile, and corrosion of the battery means the FC stack needs to be changed often. Hydrogen is also expensive, more than electricity and fossil fuels. What PLUG and other hydrogen companies do, in varying degrees of success, is to find ways to lower these costs. There is some value in the know-how PLUG accumulated as a \"leading\" hydrogen company. For the sake of objectivity, one must acknowledge that there might be some intellectual property value in PLUG's product designs. However, I don't see its engineering prowess anywhere close to industrial giants, or enough to meet customers' expectations.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，我们和我们的竞争对手都无法在目前用于PEM燃料电池系统的基础技术上取得重要的专有地位-PLUG年度报告FC的主要问题是运行成本。该系统很脆弱，电池的腐蚀意味着FC堆需要经常更换。氢气也很昂贵，比电力和化石燃料还要昂贵。PLUG和其他氢能公司所做的就是找到降低这些成本的方法，并取得了不同程度的成功。作为一家“领先”的氢能公司，PLUG积累的专有技术具有一定的价值。为了客观起见，人们必须承认PLUG的产品设计可能存在一些知识产权价值。然而，我认为它的工程实力无法接近工业巨头，也不足以满足客户的期望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利润</b></blockquote></p><p> FC has to compete with electric and combustion engines. I don't think the science behind FC allows it to be less expensive than solar or wind, which saw rapid tech advancement that reduced costs significantly over the past years. The steps of producing hydrogen carry multiple energy conversion stages, leading to wasted energy, which lowers efficiency. Most stationary FC that PLUG makes have internal converters that transform natural gas to hydrogen to power the FC, making Gas Turbines directly utilizing natural gas more efficient.</p><p><blockquote>FC必须与电动和内燃机竞争。我不认为FC背后的科学允许它比太阳能或风能更便宜，太阳能或风能在过去几年中见证了快速的技术进步，大大降低了成本。生产氢气的步骤携带多个能量转换阶段，导致能量浪费，从而降低效率。PLUG制造的大多数固定式FC都有内部转换器，可将天然气转化为氢气为FC提供动力，从而使直接利用天然气的燃气轮机更加高效。</blockquote></p><p> The same goes for Green hydrogen, which uses renewable energy to provide electricity to power an electrolyzer, producing the hydrogen used to fuel an FC to produce electricity. Again, multiple conversion processes lead to wasted energy that results in inefficiency. This might be the reason why Elon Musk described FC as \"Mind Bogglingly Stupid.\"</p><p><blockquote>绿色氢也是如此，它使用可再生能源提供电力为电解槽供电，产生用于为FC提供燃料的氢来发电。同样，多个转换过程导致能量浪费，从而导致效率低下。这可能就是埃隆·马斯克将FC描述为“愚蠢得令人难以置信”的原因。</blockquote></p><p> The science of FC also makes it impossible for it to compete on price. For this reason, it is common for hydrogen companies to sell their products at a loss, hoping to find other ways to make a profit, such as maintenance, services, orfueling. Last quarter, PLUG waived the conditions on its Amazon (AMZN) share warrants, which it handed to the company in return for GenDrive contracts. As share prices rose, AMZN warrants' costs exceeded revenue, creating a rare situation where revenue is negative. Take a look at PLUGs gross margins below.</p><p><blockquote>FC的科学性也让它无法在价格上竞争。因此，氢能公司亏本出售产品的情况很常见，希望找到其他方式来盈利，例如维护、服务或加油。上个季度，PLUG放弃了亚马逊(AMZN)认股权证的条件，并将认股权证交给该公司以换取GenDrive合同。随着股价上涨，AMZN认股权证的成本超过了收入，出现了收入为负的罕见情况。看看下面的插头毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4d9493c2496a46f56a009c0ebf063a5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"571\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Position</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务状况</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> PLUG management capitalized on the meme stock bonanza, raising a significant amount of cash. Overnight, the company turned from a penny stock on the blink of bankruptcy to a multibillion-dollar company with a market cap comparable to top aerospace and defense manufacturers. PLUG ended the quarter with $3.4 billion in cash and a TTM cash burn of $350 million. I believe that the company will increase its cash burn as it expands operations, reaching $1 billion in the first half of 2023, before raising additional capital.</p><p><blockquote>PLUG management利用了meme股票的繁荣，筹集了大量现金。一夜之间，该公司从濒临破产的细价股变成了市值数十亿美元的公司，市值可与顶级航空航天和国防制造商相媲美。PLUG本季度末拥有34亿美元现金，TTM现金消耗为3.5亿美元。我相信，在筹集额外资本之前，该公司将随着业务的扩大而增加现金消耗，在2023年上半年达到10亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d42a84086dde1a3e79f104c88d1638b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Trends</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入趋势</b></blockquote></p><p> PLUG's main product line is GenDrive, its forklift FC engine, which saw rapid expansion in recent years. However, because of the fragility of the FC system, most PLUG clients opt for turn-key package deals that include fueling, maintenance, and in many cases, productivity warranties. These covenants extend to other product lines, including its stationary FC, marketed as GenSure, and have in the past restricted profitability. Now, with its coffins full, it has the luxury to choose the most profitable projects with less restrictive covenants. Strategically, the company will focus on Green Hydrogen production and electrolyzer sales in the short and medium run, and less on GenDrive, and GenSure (stationary FC), both of which face profitability issues.</p><p><blockquote>PLUG的主要产品线是其叉车FC发动机GenDrive，近年来扩张迅速。然而，由于FC系统的脆弱性，大多数PLUG客户选择交钥匙一揽子交易，其中包括加油、维护，在许多情况下还包括生产力保证。这些契约延伸到其他产品线，包括以GenSure销售的固定FC，过去盈利能力有限。现在，它的棺材已经装满了，它可以奢侈地选择最赚钱、契约限制较少的项目。从战略上讲，该公司将在中短期内专注于绿色氢生产和电解槽销售，而较少关注GenDrive和GenSure（固定式FC），这两家公司都面临盈利问题。</blockquote></p><p> On the positive side, because of the turn-key offerings, PLUG became the world's largest consumer and distributor of hydrogen. The natural trajectory was for the company to expand into hydrogen production, specifically green hydrogen, produced from renewables, and this is why it acquired United Hydrogen and Frames Group.</p><p><blockquote>从积极的一面来看，由于交钥匙产品，PLUG成为世界上最大的氢气消费者和分销商。该公司的自然轨迹是扩展到氢气生产领域，特别是由可再生能源生产的绿色氢气，这就是它收购United Hydrogen和Frames Group的原因。</blockquote></p><p> I do not doubt that PLUG will increase its revenues in the next several quarters. It expanded its technical war chest through acquisition, and this, combined with a hot electrolyzer market, will create revenue tailwinds. However, the industrial sector is characterized by thin margins, which is further constricted by competitive dynamics in the case of PLUG. The shares are fueled by speculative momentum, as demonstrated by today's premarket's reaction on the news PLUG signed a deal with Edison Motors to develop FC-fueled busses, despite GenDrive being its least profitable businessline.</p><p><blockquote>我毫不怀疑PLUG将在未来几个季度增加收入。它通过收购扩大了技术资金，再加上火热的电解槽市场，将创造收入推动力。然而，工业部门的特点是利润微薄，就PLUG而言，这进一步受到竞争动态的限制。该股受到投机势头的推动，正如今天盘前对PLUG与爱迪生汽车公司签署协议开发FC燃料公交车的消息的反应所证明的那样，尽管GenDrive是其利润最低的业务线。</blockquote></p><p> The company is also expanding into different areas too fast, which will lead to higher cash burn and higher execution risks. Roth Capital analyst captured this sentiment during the Q3 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>公司也在过快地向不同领域扩张，这将导致更高的现金消耗和更高的执行风险。罗斯资本分析师在第三季度收益看涨期权中捕捉到了这种情绪：</blockquote></p><p> I would say this last year, I think, there has been more progress and more changes at Plug than the prior two decades and that is tremendous. But I have a confession, right? My head is spinning, right? I have followed this Company forever. I know a lot of your partners, a lot of the key people in the supply chain. And when I talk to investors, there's a lot of different directions they're looking and they're - people are sometimes just a little bit confused <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote>我想说的是，我认为，与前二十年相比，Plug取得了更多的进步和变化，这是巨大的。但我要坦白，对吧？我的头在旋转，对吧？我一直关注这家公司。我认识你的很多合作伙伴，供应链中的很多关键人物。当我与投资者交谈时，他们正在寻找很多不同的方向，他们——人们有时只是有点困惑<b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> PLUG is expanding aggressively in thin-margined markets. Hydrogen is a commodity that can be easily produced once the market becomes profitable, weakening management's arguments of \"first-mover advantage.\" The company has been locking unprofitable long-term contracts, especially within GenDrive and GenSure business lines. The company lacks the competitive moat that would justify its price multiples. Once the hydrogen economy becomes profitable, all large industrials will enter the market. I expect the company to raise more equity in 2023. Last month, it acquired Frames Group, boarding more employees, lifting operational and overhead expenses.</p><p><blockquote>PLUG正在利润微薄的市场积极扩张。氢气是一种商品，一旦市场盈利，就可以轻松生产，削弱了管理层关于“先发优势”的论点。该公司一直在锁定无利可图的长期合同，尤其是在GenDrive和GenSure业务线内。该公司缺乏证明其价格倍数合理的竞争护城河。一旦氢经济盈利，所有大型工业都将进入市场。我预计该公司将在2023年筹集更多股权。上个月，它收购了Frames Group，雇佣了更多员工，提高了运营和管理费用。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Plug Power: Shaky Business Model, First-Mover Advantage Is A Myth<blockquote>普拉格能源：商业模式摇摇欲坠，先发优势是神话</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPlug Power: Shaky Business Model, First-Mover Advantage Is A Myth<blockquote>普拉格能源：商业模式摇摇欲坠，先发优势是神话</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-17 15:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The more PLUG sells, the more it burns cash, raising profitability concerns.</li> <li>Hydrogen is a commodity with thin margins, lowering PLUG's commercial appeal.</li> <li>The company is overvalued based on the industrial sector price multiples.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4bd37a3f323fbb395573c8f96229688\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Morsa Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PLUG销量越多，烧钱就越多，引发盈利能力担忧。</li><li>氢气是一种利润微薄的商品，降低了PLUG的商业吸引力。</li><li>根据工业部门价格倍数，该公司被高估。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Morsa Images/DigitalVision来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Since my latest article covering Plug Power (PLUG), which carried a hold rating, shares increased 24%, powered by a revenue momentum bound to new acquisitions and an accommodative regulatory environment that push corporations to seek solutions lowering carbon footprint. These revenue trends will likely continue, but I don't see this creating value for shareholders. Competitive dynamics force PLUG to sell its products at thin margins, and in many cases, below cost. </p><p><blockquote>自从我上一篇报道普拉格能源(PLUG)并给予持有评级以来，在新收购带来的收入势头以及推动企业寻求降低碳足迹的解决方案的宽松监管环境的推动下，该公司股价上涨了24%。这些收入趋势可能会持续下去，但我认为这不会为股东创造价值。竞争动态迫使PLUG以微薄的利润（在许多情况下甚至低于成本）销售其产品。</blockquote></p><p> PLUG utilizes a 200 years old technology, lacking a competitive edge or industrial moat. Despite that, its market cap is equivalent to BAE Systems (OTCPK:BAESF), Europe's largest defense contractor and a pillar of global security. Warren Buffett's test for assessing an investment rationale is to ask if you'd be willing to buy the entire company if given the opportunity instead of its shares. In this case, the question is, if you had $20 billion, would you choose to own the co-developer of the F-35 fighter jets or a fuel cell \"FC\" company using the same battery you built in science class while in middle school? Given its low, competitive moat, thin margins, and high price multiples, I believe PLUG will struggle to provide sustainable capital gains to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>PLUG利用了一项有200年历史的技术，缺乏竞争优势或工业护城河。尽管如此，其市值仍相当于欧洲最大的国防承包商、全球安全支柱BAE Systems（OTCPK：BAESF）。沃伦·巴菲特评估投资理由的测试是，如果有机会，你是否愿意购买整个公司而不是其股票。在这种情况下，问题是，如果你有200亿美元，你会选择拥有F-35战斗机的联合开发商，还是使用你在中学科学课上制造的相同电池的燃料电池“FC”公司？鉴于其较低、具有竞争力的护城河、微薄的利润率和较高的市盈率，我相信PLUG将难以为股东提供可持续的资本收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Moat</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争护城河</b></blockquote></p><p> There is absolutely nothing that PLUG does that General Electric (GE), Honeywell (HON), or Siemens (OTCPK:SIEGY) can't do. PLUG's flagship product is a fuel cell battery relying on a decades-long technology that remained largely the same. It is fair to say that PLUG lacks a competitive moat, and for regulatory purposes, the company discloses this notion in its annual report.</p><p><blockquote>PLUG绝对没有什么是通用电气(GE)、霍尼韦尔(HON)或西门子(OTCPK：SIEGY)做不到的。PLUG的旗舰产品是一种燃料电池，该电池依赖于几十年来基本保持不变的技术。公平地说，PLUG缺乏竞争护城河，出于监管目的，该公司在其年度报告中披露了这一概念。</blockquote></p><p> We believe that neither we nor our competitors can achieve a significant proprietary position on the basic technologies currently used in PEM fuel cell systems - PLUG Annual Report The main problem with FC is running costs. The system is fragile, and corrosion of the battery means the FC stack needs to be changed often. Hydrogen is also expensive, more than electricity and fossil fuels. What PLUG and other hydrogen companies do, in varying degrees of success, is to find ways to lower these costs. There is some value in the know-how PLUG accumulated as a \"leading\" hydrogen company. For the sake of objectivity, one must acknowledge that there might be some intellectual property value in PLUG's product designs. However, I don't see its engineering prowess anywhere close to industrial giants, or enough to meet customers' expectations.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，我们和我们的竞争对手都无法在目前用于PEM燃料电池系统的基础技术上取得重要的专有地位-PLUG年度报告FC的主要问题是运行成本。该系统很脆弱，电池的腐蚀意味着FC堆需要经常更换。氢气也很昂贵，比电力和化石燃料还要昂贵。PLUG和其他氢能公司所做的就是找到降低这些成本的方法，并取得了不同程度的成功。作为一家“领先”的氢能公司，PLUG积累的专有技术具有一定的价值。为了客观起见，人们必须承认PLUG的产品设计可能存在一些知识产权价值。然而，我认为它的工程实力无法接近工业巨头，也不足以满足客户的期望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利润</b></blockquote></p><p> FC has to compete with electric and combustion engines. I don't think the science behind FC allows it to be less expensive than solar or wind, which saw rapid tech advancement that reduced costs significantly over the past years. The steps of producing hydrogen carry multiple energy conversion stages, leading to wasted energy, which lowers efficiency. Most stationary FC that PLUG makes have internal converters that transform natural gas to hydrogen to power the FC, making Gas Turbines directly utilizing natural gas more efficient.</p><p><blockquote>FC必须与电动和内燃机竞争。我不认为FC背后的科学允许它比太阳能或风能更便宜，太阳能或风能在过去几年中见证了快速的技术进步，大大降低了成本。生产氢气的步骤携带多个能量转换阶段，导致能量浪费，从而降低效率。PLUG制造的大多数固定式FC都有内部转换器，可将天然气转化为氢气为FC提供动力，从而使直接利用天然气的燃气轮机更加高效。</blockquote></p><p> The same goes for Green hydrogen, which uses renewable energy to provide electricity to power an electrolyzer, producing the hydrogen used to fuel an FC to produce electricity. Again, multiple conversion processes lead to wasted energy that results in inefficiency. This might be the reason why Elon Musk described FC as \"Mind Bogglingly Stupid.\"</p><p><blockquote>绿色氢也是如此，它使用可再生能源提供电力为电解槽供电，产生用于为FC提供燃料的氢来发电。同样，多个转换过程导致能量浪费，从而导致效率低下。这可能就是埃隆·马斯克将FC描述为“愚蠢得令人难以置信”的原因。</blockquote></p><p> The science of FC also makes it impossible for it to compete on price. For this reason, it is common for hydrogen companies to sell their products at a loss, hoping to find other ways to make a profit, such as maintenance, services, orfueling. Last quarter, PLUG waived the conditions on its Amazon (AMZN) share warrants, which it handed to the company in return for GenDrive contracts. As share prices rose, AMZN warrants' costs exceeded revenue, creating a rare situation where revenue is negative. Take a look at PLUGs gross margins below.</p><p><blockquote>FC的科学性也让它无法在价格上竞争。因此，氢能公司亏本出售产品的情况很常见，希望找到其他方式来盈利，例如维护、服务或加油。上个季度，PLUG放弃了亚马逊(AMZN)认股权证的条件，并将认股权证交给该公司以换取GenDrive合同。随着股价上涨，AMZN认股权证的成本超过了收入，出现了收入为负的罕见情况。看看下面的插头毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4d9493c2496a46f56a009c0ebf063a5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"571\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Position</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务状况</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> PLUG management capitalized on the meme stock bonanza, raising a significant amount of cash. Overnight, the company turned from a penny stock on the blink of bankruptcy to a multibillion-dollar company with a market cap comparable to top aerospace and defense manufacturers. PLUG ended the quarter with $3.4 billion in cash and a TTM cash burn of $350 million. I believe that the company will increase its cash burn as it expands operations, reaching $1 billion in the first half of 2023, before raising additional capital.</p><p><blockquote>PLUG management利用了meme股票的繁荣，筹集了大量现金。一夜之间，该公司从濒临破产的细价股变成了市值数十亿美元的公司，市值可与顶级航空航天和国防制造商相媲美。PLUG本季度末拥有34亿美元现金，TTM现金消耗为3.5亿美元。我相信，在筹集额外资本之前，该公司将随着业务的扩大而增加现金消耗，在2023年上半年达到10亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d42a84086dde1a3e79f104c88d1638b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Trends</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入趋势</b></blockquote></p><p> PLUG's main product line is GenDrive, its forklift FC engine, which saw rapid expansion in recent years. However, because of the fragility of the FC system, most PLUG clients opt for turn-key package deals that include fueling, maintenance, and in many cases, productivity warranties. These covenants extend to other product lines, including its stationary FC, marketed as GenSure, and have in the past restricted profitability. Now, with its coffins full, it has the luxury to choose the most profitable projects with less restrictive covenants. Strategically, the company will focus on Green Hydrogen production and electrolyzer sales in the short and medium run, and less on GenDrive, and GenSure (stationary FC), both of which face profitability issues.</p><p><blockquote>PLUG的主要产品线是其叉车FC发动机GenDrive，近年来扩张迅速。然而，由于FC系统的脆弱性，大多数PLUG客户选择交钥匙一揽子交易，其中包括加油、维护，在许多情况下还包括生产力保证。这些契约延伸到其他产品线，包括以GenSure销售的固定FC，过去盈利能力有限。现在，它的棺材已经装满了，它可以奢侈地选择最赚钱、契约限制较少的项目。从战略上讲，该公司将在中短期内专注于绿色氢生产和电解槽销售，而较少关注GenDrive和GenSure（固定式FC），这两家公司都面临盈利问题。</blockquote></p><p> On the positive side, because of the turn-key offerings, PLUG became the world's largest consumer and distributor of hydrogen. The natural trajectory was for the company to expand into hydrogen production, specifically green hydrogen, produced from renewables, and this is why it acquired United Hydrogen and Frames Group.</p><p><blockquote>从积极的一面来看，由于交钥匙产品，PLUG成为世界上最大的氢气消费者和分销商。该公司的自然轨迹是扩展到氢气生产领域，特别是由可再生能源生产的绿色氢气，这就是它收购United Hydrogen和Frames Group的原因。</blockquote></p><p> I do not doubt that PLUG will increase its revenues in the next several quarters. It expanded its technical war chest through acquisition, and this, combined with a hot electrolyzer market, will create revenue tailwinds. However, the industrial sector is characterized by thin margins, which is further constricted by competitive dynamics in the case of PLUG. The shares are fueled by speculative momentum, as demonstrated by today's premarket's reaction on the news PLUG signed a deal with Edison Motors to develop FC-fueled busses, despite GenDrive being its least profitable businessline.</p><p><blockquote>我毫不怀疑PLUG将在未来几个季度增加收入。它通过收购扩大了技术资金，再加上火热的电解槽市场，将创造收入推动力。然而，工业部门的特点是利润微薄，就PLUG而言，这进一步受到竞争动态的限制。该股受到投机势头的推动，正如今天盘前对PLUG与爱迪生汽车公司签署协议开发FC燃料公交车的消息的反应所证明的那样，尽管GenDrive是其利润最低的业务线。</blockquote></p><p> The company is also expanding into different areas too fast, which will lead to higher cash burn and higher execution risks. Roth Capital analyst captured this sentiment during the Q3 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>公司也在过快地向不同领域扩张，这将导致更高的现金消耗和更高的执行风险。罗斯资本分析师在第三季度收益看涨期权中捕捉到了这种情绪：</blockquote></p><p> I would say this last year, I think, there has been more progress and more changes at Plug than the prior two decades and that is tremendous. But I have a confession, right? My head is spinning, right? I have followed this Company forever. I know a lot of your partners, a lot of the key people in the supply chain. And when I talk to investors, there's a lot of different directions they're looking and they're - people are sometimes just a little bit confused <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote>我想说的是，我认为，与前二十年相比，Plug取得了更多的进步和变化，这是巨大的。但我要坦白，对吧？我的头在旋转，对吧？我一直关注这家公司。我认识你的很多合作伙伴，供应链中的很多关键人物。当我与投资者交谈时，他们正在寻找很多不同的方向，他们——人们有时只是有点困惑<b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> PLUG is expanding aggressively in thin-margined markets. Hydrogen is a commodity that can be easily produced once the market becomes profitable, weakening management's arguments of \"first-mover advantage.\" The company has been locking unprofitable long-term contracts, especially within GenDrive and GenSure business lines. The company lacks the competitive moat that would justify its price multiples. Once the hydrogen economy becomes profitable, all large industrials will enter the market. I expect the company to raise more equity in 2023. Last month, it acquired Frames Group, boarding more employees, lifting operational and overhead expenses.</p><p><blockquote>PLUG正在利润微薄的市场积极扩张。氢气是一种商品，一旦市场盈利，就可以轻松生产，削弱了管理层关于“先发优势”的论点。该公司一直在锁定无利可图的长期合同，尤其是在GenDrive和GenSure业务线内。该公司缺乏证明其价格倍数合理的竞争护城河。一旦氢经济盈利，所有大型工业都将进入市场。我预计该公司将在2023年筹集更多股权。上个月，它收购了Frames Group，雇佣了更多员工，提高了运营和管理费用。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475583-plug-power-first-mover-advantage-is-a-myth\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475583-plug-power-first-mover-advantage-is-a-myth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186509817","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe more PLUG sells, the more it burns cash, raising profitability concerns.\nHydrogen is a commodity with thin margins, lowering PLUG's commercial appeal.\nThe company is overvalued based on the industrial sector price multiples.\n\nMorsa Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nSince my latest article covering Plug Power (PLUG), which carried a hold rating, shares increased 24%, powered by a revenue momentum bound to new acquisitions and an accommodative regulatory environment that push corporations to seek solutions lowering carbon footprint. These revenue trends will likely continue, but I don't see this creating value for shareholders. Competitive dynamics force PLUG to sell its products at thin margins, and in many cases, below cost. \nPLUG utilizes a 200 years old technology, lacking a competitive edge or industrial moat. Despite that, its market cap is equivalent to BAE Systems (OTCPK:BAESF), Europe's largest defense contractor and a pillar of global security. Warren Buffett's test for assessing an investment rationale is to ask if you'd be willing to buy the entire company if given the opportunity instead of its shares. In this case, the question is, if you had $20 billion, would you choose to own the co-developer of the F-35 fighter jets or a fuel cell \"FC\" company using the same battery you built in science class while in middle school? Given its low, competitive moat, thin margins, and high price multiples, I believe PLUG will struggle to provide sustainable capital gains to shareholders.\nCompetitive Moat\nThere is absolutely nothing that PLUG does that General Electric (GE), Honeywell (HON), or Siemens (OTCPK:SIEGY) can't do. PLUG's flagship product is a fuel cell battery relying on a decades-long technology that remained largely the same. It is fair to say that PLUG lacks a competitive moat, and for regulatory purposes, the company discloses this notion in its annual report.\n\n We believe that neither we nor our competitors can achieve a significant proprietary position on the basic technologies currently used in PEM fuel cell systems - PLUG Annual Report\n\nThe main problem with FC is running costs. The system is fragile, and corrosion of the battery means the FC stack needs to be changed often. Hydrogen is also expensive, more than electricity and fossil fuels. What PLUG and other hydrogen companies do, in varying degrees of success, is to find ways to lower these costs. There is some value in the know-how PLUG accumulated as a \"leading\" hydrogen company. For the sake of objectivity, one must acknowledge that there might be some intellectual property value in PLUG's product designs. However, I don't see its engineering prowess anywhere close to industrial giants, or enough to meet customers' expectations.\nMargins\nFC has to compete with electric and combustion engines. I don't think the science behind FC allows it to be less expensive than solar or wind, which saw rapid tech advancement that reduced costs significantly over the past years. The steps of producing hydrogen carry multiple energy conversion stages, leading to wasted energy, which lowers efficiency. Most stationary FC that PLUG makes have internal converters that transform natural gas to hydrogen to power the FC, making Gas Turbines directly utilizing natural gas more efficient.\nThe same goes for Green hydrogen, which uses renewable energy to provide electricity to power an electrolyzer, producing the hydrogen used to fuel an FC to produce electricity. Again, multiple conversion processes lead to wasted energy that results in inefficiency. This might be the reason why Elon Musk described FC as \"Mind Bogglingly Stupid.\"\nThe science of FC also makes it impossible for it to compete on price. For this reason, it is common for hydrogen companies to sell their products at a loss, hoping to find other ways to make a profit, such as maintenance, services, orfueling. Last quarter, PLUG waived the conditions on its Amazon (AMZN) share warrants, which it handed to the company in return for GenDrive contracts. As share prices rose, AMZN warrants' costs exceeded revenue, creating a rare situation where revenue is negative. Take a look at PLUGs gross margins below.\nData by YCharts\nFinancial Position\nPLUG management capitalized on the meme stock bonanza, raising a significant amount of cash. Overnight, the company turned from a penny stock on the blink of bankruptcy to a multibillion-dollar company with a market cap comparable to top aerospace and defense manufacturers. PLUG ended the quarter with $3.4 billion in cash and a TTM cash burn of $350 million. I believe that the company will increase its cash burn as it expands operations, reaching $1 billion in the first half of 2023, before raising additional capital.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue Trends\nPLUG's main product line is GenDrive, its forklift FC engine, which saw rapid expansion in recent years. However, because of the fragility of the FC system, most PLUG clients opt for turn-key package deals that include fueling, maintenance, and in many cases, productivity warranties. These covenants extend to other product lines, including its stationary FC, marketed as GenSure, and have in the past restricted profitability. Now, with its coffins full, it has the luxury to choose the most profitable projects with less restrictive covenants. Strategically, the company will focus on Green Hydrogen production and electrolyzer sales in the short and medium run, and less on GenDrive, and GenSure (stationary FC), both of which face profitability issues.\nOn the positive side, because of the turn-key offerings, PLUG became the world's largest consumer and distributor of hydrogen. The natural trajectory was for the company to expand into hydrogen production, specifically green hydrogen, produced from renewables, and this is why it acquired United Hydrogen and Frames Group.\nI do not doubt that PLUG will increase its revenues in the next several quarters. It expanded its technical war chest through acquisition, and this, combined with a hot electrolyzer market, will create revenue tailwinds. However, the industrial sector is characterized by thin margins, which is further constricted by competitive dynamics in the case of PLUG. The shares are fueled by speculative momentum, as demonstrated by today's premarket's reaction on the news PLUG signed a deal with Edison Motors to develop FC-fueled busses, despite GenDrive being its least profitable businessline.\nThe company is also expanding into different areas too fast, which will lead to higher cash burn and higher execution risks. Roth Capital analyst captured this sentiment during the Q3 earnings call:\n\n I would say this last year, I think, there has been more progress and more changes at Plug than the prior two decades and that is tremendous. But I have a confession, right? My head is spinning, right? I have followed this Company forever. I know a lot of your partners, a lot of the key people in the supply chain. And when I talk to investors, there's a lot of different directions they're looking and they're - people are sometimes just a little bit confused\n\nSummary\nPLUG is expanding aggressively in thin-margined markets. Hydrogen is a commodity that can be easily produced once the market becomes profitable, weakening management's arguments of \"first-mover advantage.\" The company has been locking unprofitable long-term contracts, especially within GenDrive and GenSure business lines. The company lacks the competitive moat that would justify its price multiples. Once the hydrogen economy becomes profitable, all large industrials will enter the market. I expect the company to raise more equity in 2023. Last month, it acquired Frames Group, boarding more employees, lifting operational and overhead expenses.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2995,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":26,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/699027836"}
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