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2021-12-17

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Intel: Mobileye IPO Could Be A Masterstroke<blockquote>英特尔：Mobileye IPO 可能是一个绝妙的举动</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":699056069,"tweetId":"699056069","gmtCreate":1639727349043,"gmtModify":1639727349316,"author":{"id":3581903045598734,"idStr":"3581903045598734","authorId":3581903045598734,"authorIdStr":"3581903045598734","name":"Kong06","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":30,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>👌&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>👌&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"👌","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699056069","repostId":1169026598,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169026598","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639698567,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169026598?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel: Mobileye IPO Could Be A Masterstroke<blockquote>英特尔：Mobileye IPO 可能是一个绝妙的举动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169026598","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIntel is spinning off Mobileye via an IPO in mid 2022 to raise capital for its ambitious gr","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Intel is spinning off Mobileye via an IPO in mid 2022 to raise capital for its ambitious growth plans. In this note, we will discuss the logic of this transaction.</li> <li>Mobileye is one of the leading players in autonomous vehicle technology, which means it should command a much higher multiple than Intel.</li> <li>At ~9x Price-to-FCF, Intel is massively undervalued, and as such Mobileye's valuation is suppressed. The IPO is likely to act as a significant value unlocking event for Intel.</li> <li>According to my analysis, Mobileye could quite easily fetch a valuation of $50-100B in the current market environment. Hence, Intel could raise a significant sum by selling just a minor stake.</li> <li>Even after the IPO, Intel will continue to control Mobileye with a majority stake, and Intel's CEO, Pat Gelsinger, will be shaping Mobileye's future as the Chairman of its Board. Hence, Intel is getting the best of both worlds with this deal. I rate Intel a strong buy at $50.</li> <li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Beating the Market get exclusive access to our model portfolio.</li> </ul> Introduction<blockquote><ul><li>英特尔将于 2022 年中期通过 IPO 分拆 Mobileye，为其雄心勃勃的增长计划筹集资金。在本说明中，我们将讨论此交易的逻辑。</li><li>Mobileye 是自动驾驶汽车技术领域的领先企业之一，这意味着它的市盈率应该比英特尔高得多。</li><li>英特尔的市盈率约为 9 倍，被严重低估，因此 Mobileye 的估值受到抑制。此次IPO可能会成为英特尔的一个重要价值释放事件。</li><li>根据我的分析，在当前的市场环境下，Mobileye可以很容易地获得50-100B美元的估值。因此，英特尔只需出售少量股份就可以筹集一大笔钱。</li><li>即使在 IPO 之后，英特尔仍将继续以多数股权控制 Mobileye，英特尔首席执行官帕特·基辛格 (Pat Gelsinger) 将作为董事会主席塑造 Mobileye 的未来。因此，英特尔通过这笔交易获得了两全其美的结果。我以 50 美元的价格强力买入英特尔。</li><li>寻找像这样的创意组合？击败市场的成员可以独家访问我们的模型组合。</li></ul>介绍</blockquote> Despite the astounding rally in chip stocks over the last 18-24 months, Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) valuation (~12x P/FCF) continues to remain depressed. The semiconductor supply shortage is showing no signs of abating, with Intel selling all that it could make. In 2021, Intel is set to generate record revenues and operating cash flows. Although Intel is facing margin pressures due to heightened competition, its business fundamentals remain strong. Intel's balance sheet and free cash flow generation are robust. An inflationary environment is supposed to be supportive of cash flow machines like Intel. Hence, the weak price action in Intel is puzzling (even after considering Intel's manufacturing woes over the last few years).<blockquote>尽管芯片股在过去 18-24 个月中出现了惊人的反弹，但英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）的估值（约 12 倍市盈率/自由现金流）仍然低迷。半导体供应短缺没有缓解的迹象，英特尔出售了所有能生产的产品。2021年，英特尔将产生创纪录的收入和运营现金流。尽管英特尔因竞争加剧而面临利润率压力，但其业务基本面依然强劲。英特尔的资产负债表和自由现金流生成非常强劲。通货膨胀环境应该有利于英特尔等现金流机器。因此，英特尔疲软的价格走势令人费解（即使考虑到英特尔过去几年的制造困境）。</blockquote> In today's note, we will focus our discussion on Intel's upcoming spinoff Mobileye, which is likely to act as a value unlocking catalyst for this chip giant.<blockquote>在今天的报告中，我们将重点讨论英特尔即将推出的衍生产品 Mobileye，该产品可能会成为这家芯片巨头价值解锁的催化剂。</blockquote> Let's begin our analysis by deciphering the logic behind an IPO for Mobileye.<blockquote>让我们从解读 Mobileye IPO 背后的逻辑开始分析。</blockquote> Understanding The Motivation Behind Intel's Mobileye Spinoff<blockquote>了解英特尔分拆 Mobileye 背后的动机</blockquote> Soon after rejoining Intel as CEO, Pat Gelsinger outlined an aggressive hybrid-sourcing and foundry plan to take the semiconductor giant back to its past glory (after some woeful execution from previous management). On paper, Pat's strategy is very simple. Intel will outsource next-gen chip manufacturing to foundries like TSMC (NYSE:TSM), which would enable them to compete against rivals like AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). While Intel is working toward fixing its manufacturing woes and regaining the technological lead at the node level, the company also is opening up its manufacturing plants in the Western Hemisphere for other companies (i.e., entering the foundry business).<blockquote>在重新加入英特尔担任首席执行官后不久，帕特·基辛格概述了一项积极的混合采购和代工计划，旨在让这家半导体巨头重返昔日的辉煌（在前任管理层进行了一些糟糕的执行之后）。从纸面上看，帕特的策略非常简单。英特尔将把下一代芯片制造外包给台积电（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TSM）等代工厂，这将使他们能够与 AMD（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英伟达（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）等竞争对手竞争。虽然英特尔正在努力解决其制造困境，并在节点层面重新获得技术领先地位，但该公司也在向其他公司开放其在西半球的制造工厂（即进入代工业务）。</blockquote> The semiconductor industry is undergoing a painful supply crisis that has had far-reaching impacts across multiple industries. With the EV revolution, the demand for automotive chips is set to explode higher. Hence, the chip shortage could last for years and years. Only a handful of companies can solve this crisis, and Intel is probably the only company that could help abate this semiconductor shortage in the Western Hemisphere.<blockquote>半导体行业正在经历一场痛苦的供应危机，这场危机对多个行业产生了深远影响。随着电动汽车革命，对汽车芯片的需求将会爆炸式增长。因此，芯片短缺可能会持续很多年。只有少数几家公司能够解决这场危机，而英特尔可能是唯一一家能够帮助缓解西半球半导体短缺问题的公司。</blockquote> Pat Gelsinger has put forward an aggressive growth plan for Intel, which could see the company growing at ~10-12% CAGR from 2023-2027. However, Pat's plan is highly capital intensive, and so Intel needs more capital.<blockquote>帕特·基辛格 (Pat Gelsinger) 为英特尔提出了一项积极的增长计划，预计该公司从 2023 年到 2027 年的复合年增长率将达到约 10-12%。然而，帕特的计划是高度资本密集型的，因此英特尔需要更多的资本。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/469130405b455b41aba450a41af1ccd1\" tg-width=\"1122\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Intel is set to enter a heavy capex-spending cycle with plans to increase capex for 2022 to ~$25B-$28B. With Intel's stock trading close to record low valuation (by P/FCF) from the past 10 years, raising capital through fresh equity issuance would be highly dilutionary for Intel's shareholders. Intel is one of the most-hated stocks on Wall Street, and the management certainly is not interested in alienating more of its investor base. Hence, a capital raise through equity is ruled out.<blockquote>英特尔将进入一个繁重的资本支出周期，计划将 2022 年的资本支出增加到约 $25B-$28B。由于英特尔股票交易接近过去10年的历史最低估值（按市盈率计算），通过新的股票发行筹集资金对英特尔股东来说将是高度稀释的。英特尔是华尔街最令人憎恨的股票之一，管理层当然没有兴趣疏远更多的投资者基础。因此，排除了通过股权融资的可能性。</blockquote> Another way to raise capital would be through debt issuance, and Intel's balance sheet and free cash flow generation are strong enough to allow for more debt. However, Intel's margins are set to come under pressure due to a potential price war with the likes of AMD, and with increased CAPEX-spending, Intel's free cash flows may suffer too in the near term. Hence, Intel's management could be unwilling to raise more capital via debt (which already stands at ~$40B).<blockquote>另一种筹集资金的方式是通过发债，而英特尔的资产负债表和自由现金流产生足够强劲，可以承担更多债务。然而，由于与 AMD 等公司潜在的价格战，英特尔的利润率将面临压力，而且随着资本支出的增加，英特尔的自由现金流在短期内也可能受到影响。因此，英特尔管理层可能不愿意通过债务筹集更多资本（债务已经达到约 40B 美元）。</blockquote> Asset monetization was probably the only viable alternative for raising capital to fund Intel's growth plan. And if we look at Intel's business, Mobileye is probably the most under-appreciated asset buried under a steep conglomerate discount. Mobileye is a category-leading business in autonomous driving (one of the hottest spaces in the market), and it would undoubtedly command a much higher trading multiple in the current market environment than what Intel paid for it back in 2017. Hence, the Mobileye spinoff is a very sound and logical decision from Intel's management.<blockquote>资产货币化可能是筹集资金为英特尔增长计划提供资金的唯一可行选择。如果我们看看英特尔的业务，Mobileye 可能是被企业集团大幅折扣掩盖的最被低估的资产。Mobileye是自动驾驶领域的领先企业（市场上最热门的领域之一），在当前的市场环境下，它的交易倍数无疑会比英特尔在2017年支付的价格高得多。因此，Mobileye分拆是英特尔管理层做出的一个非常明智和合乎逻辑的决定。</blockquote> Pat Says Mobileye Is Comparable To Tesla! Is It Though?<blockquote>帕特说Mobileye堪比特斯拉!是吗？</blockquote> In 2017, Intel acquired Mobileye for an eye-watering sum of ~$15.3B. Since this acquisition, Mobileye has delivered significant revenue growth, achieved numerous technical innovations, and invested capital toward solving the most critical problems in the scaled deployment of autonomous driving technology. Unlike most IPOs, Mobileye is already a highly-profitable company. Hence, Intel could get a big return on its investment by selling a minority stake in Mobileye.<blockquote>2017 年，英特尔以约 15.3B 美元的惊人价格收购了 Mobileye。自此次收购以来，Mobileye实现了显著的收入增长，实现了众多技术创新，并投入资金解决了自动驾驶技术大规模部署中最关键的问题。与大多数 IPO 不同，Mobileye 已经是一家高利润的公司。因此，英特尔可以通过出售Mobileye的少数股权获得丰厚的投资回报。</blockquote> In the last 12 months, Mobileye has generated revenues of $1.36B, with operating profits coming in at $471M (operating margin of ~35%). Also, Mobileye achieved the milestone of delivering its 100 millionth EyeQ SOC, unveiled its production robotaxi (network coming live in 2022) and won 41 new ADAS and full self-driving programs with 30 legacy automakers. In a nutshell, Mobileye has taken tremendous strides both from a technical and financial standpoint.<blockquote>过去 12 个月，Mobileye 的收入为 13.6 亿美元，营业利润为 4.71 亿美元（营业利润率约为 35%）。此外，Mobileye 实现了交付第 1 亿台 EyeQ SOC 的里程碑，推出了量产版 robotaxi（网络将于 2022 年上线），并与 30 家传统汽车制造商合作赢得了 41 个新的 ADAS 和全自动驾驶项目。简而言之，Mobileye 从技术和财务角度都取得了巨大的进步。</blockquote> Since Mobileye has always operated as an independent subsidiary within Intel, the separation won't be hard. The strategic partnership with Intel will remain in place, and higher visibility should enable Mobileye to win more partners across the globe. With its robotaxi network set to go live in 2022, Mobileye is probably going to be the first to market in L3/L4 AV technology.<blockquote>由于 Mobileye 一直作为英特尔内部的独立子公司运营，因此分离并不困难。与英特尔的战略合作伙伴关系将继续存在，更高的知名度将使Mobileye能够在全球赢得更多合作伙伴。随着其机器人出租车网络将于2022年上线，Mobileye可能会成为第一个推出L3/L4 AV技术的公司。</blockquote> Mobileye is truly at an inflection point, and its future looks as bright as ever. Some critics would say that Intel is selling its future to chase the past. However, we must acknowledge the realities around us. The hype around autonomous driving and EVs has never been higher, and Mobileye's spectacular growth story is buried under Intel's umbrella. By bringing Mobileye to the public markets as a standalone entity, Intel is likely to receive a cash boost (at a rich trading multiple), whilst it will also maintain its majority stake (control) in the company.<blockquote>Mobileye确实处于拐点，它的未来看起来一如既往地光明。一些批评者会说，英特尔正在出卖自己的未来来追逐过去。然而，我们必须承认我们周围的现实。围绕自动驾驶和电动汽车的炒作从未如此之高，Mobileye 惊人的增长故事被埋没在英特尔的保护伞下。通过将 Mobileye 作为一个独立实体推向公开市场，英特尔可能会获得现金增长（以丰富的交易倍数），同时还将保持其在该公司的多数股权（控制权）。</blockquote> Although Pat compared Mobileye to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) due to its AV technology (and future Robotaxi business), I think it's more comparable to Nvidia. For the purpose of this note, we shall create a guesstimate for Mobileye's valuation using trading multiples for both Tesla and Nvidia. Due to its relatively small size, I would expect Mobileye to command a higher multiple than these companies.<blockquote>尽管 Pat 因其 AV 技术（以及未来的机器人出租车业务）而将 Mobileye 与特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）进行了比较，但我认为它与 Nvidia 更具可比性。出于本说明的目的，我们将使用特斯拉和英伟达的交易倍数来创建 Mobileye 估值的猜测。由于其规模相对较小，我预计 Mobileye 的市盈率会高于这些公司。</blockquote> Looking through the lens of relative valuation, Mobileye's IPO could be valued anywhere in the range of ~$50B to $70B. However, let us also determine Mobileye's absolute valuation using its financials.<blockquote>从相对估值的角度来看，Mobileye 的 IPO 估值可能在约 $50B 到 $70B 之间。然而，让我们也利用 Mobileye 的财务数据来确定其绝对估值。</blockquote> Estimating Mobileye's Fair Value<blockquote>估计 Mobileye 的公允价值</blockquote> To determine Mobileye's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:<blockquote>为厘定Mobileye的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。以下是它需要的内容：</blockquote> <ul> <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</li> <li></li> <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</li> <li></li> <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</li> <li></li> <li>In step 4, the model accounts for dividends.</li> </ul> Assumptions:<blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流被我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li><li></li><li>在步骤2中，该模型考虑了流通股变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li><li></li><li>在第三步中，我们在十年结束时对未来增长前景进行估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和 10 年底的预计股价得出 CAGR。如果这比市场有足够的优势，我们就会投资。如果没有，我们等待更好的切入点。</li><li></li><li>在步骤4中，模型考虑了股息。</li></ul>假设：</blockquote> Mobileye is a rapidly-growing, highly-profitable business. With a massive TAM and leading ADAS &amp; Autonomous Vehicle [AV] technology, Mobileye is set to ride an enormous secular growth trend as the shift to autonomous-driving EVs accelerates over the 2020s. Hence, a 10-year CAGR growth rate of 25% could be highly conservative. As the MoovitAV robotaxi network grows, Mobileye's margins are likely to head higher. Therefore, Mobileye's FCF margin could quite comfortably hover at more than 30% when the business matures, and growth slows down (not going to happen for another decade or two).<blockquote>Mobileye是一项快速增长、高利润的业务。凭借庞大的TAM和领先的ADAS和自动驾驶汽车[AV]技术，随着2020年代向自动驾驶电动汽车的加速转变，Mobileye将迎来巨大的长期增长趋势。因此，25%的10年CAGR增长率可能是高度保守的。随着 MoovitAV 机器人出租车网络的发展，Mobileye 的利润率可能会更高。因此，当业务成熟且增长放缓时，Mobileye 的自由现金流利润率可以相当轻松地徘徊在 30% 以上（这种情况在未来一二十年内不会发生）。</blockquote> As you can see, Mobileye is worth ~$15 per share or ~$60B market cap. The assumptions utilized in this valuation exercise are conservative, which means Mobileye could be worth even more than $60B.<blockquote>如您所见，Mobileye 每股价值约 15 美元，市值约为 60B 美元。本次估值工作中使用的假设是保守的，这意味着 Mobileye 的价值可能超过 $60B。</blockquote> If Mobileye's 10-year CAGR revenue growth rate were to be in the 30%-50% range (instead of our estimate of 25%), Mobileye's fair value would come out to be ~$88B to ~$340B. At a $1T valuation, Tesla's implied 10-year CAGR revenue growth rate is ~50%. Since Mobileye is growing from a much smaller base, and considering the fact that it could become the industry standard for AV technology (by leveraging existing relationships with legacy automakers like Ford, BMW, and many others), I would imagine Mobileye has a better chance of delivering such hyper-growth than Tesla.<blockquote>如果 Mobileye 的 10 年 CAGR 收入增长率在 30%-50% 范围内（而不是我们估计的 25%），则 Mobileye 的公允价值将达到约 $88B 至约 $340B。按 1 万美元估值计算，特斯拉隐含 10 年复合年增长率收入增长率约为 50%。由于 Mobileye 的基础要小得多，并且考虑到它可能成为 AV 技术的行业标准（通过利用与福特、宝马等传统汽车制造商的现有关系），我认为 Mobileye 比特斯拉更有机会实现这种高速增长。</blockquote> Even after the spinoff of Mobileye, Intel would generate revenues of ~$73B in 2022 with virtually zero impact on its cash flow generation. Although Intel will lose one of its key assets in this transaction (not really, as Intel will still control Mobileye through a majority stake), the proceeds will help Intel's management execute its ambitious growth plans. Using conservative estimates, Intel (minus Mobileye) is still worth ~$70 per share (~$280B market cap) (this valuation exercise is available in my previous articles on Intel). Therefore, the Mobileye spinoff is very likely to unlock hidden value for Intel's shareholders.<blockquote>即使在 Mobileye 分拆之后，英特尔在 2022 年仍将产生约 73B 美元的收入，对其现金流产生的影响几乎为零。尽管英特尔将在此次交易中失去一项关键资产（实际上并非如此，因为英特尔仍将通过多数股权控制 Mobileye），但所得收益将帮助英特尔管理层执行其雄心勃勃的增长计划。根据保守估计，英特尔（减去 Mobileye）每股仍价值约 70 美元（市值约 280B 美元）（此估值练习可在我之前关于英特尔的文章中找到）。因此，Mobileye 分拆很可能为英特尔股东释放隐藏的价值。</blockquote> Concluding Thoughts<blockquote>结束语</blockquote> With Intel's market cap hovering at just about $200B, raising capital through stock issuance is not viable. Although Intel's balance sheet and free cash flow generation remain robust, the company is entering a heavy capex-spending cycle, which makes an additional debt raise troublesome. Mobileye is one of the faster-growing business lines at Intel. However, selling a small piece of it could yield a massive sum for Intel, which could be utilized toward Pat Gelsinger's ambitious growth plan for the company. According to my analysis, Mobileye could fetch a valuation of $50B-$100B in the current market environment, and I think Intel will end up raising ~$10B-$15B from the Mobileye IPO while retaining control of the company. I like this move from Intel's management as I can see significant value unlocking from this spinoff.<blockquote>由于英特尔的市值徘徊在2000亿美元左右，通过发行股票筹集资金是不可行的。尽管英特尔的资产负债表和自由现金流生成仍然强劲，但该公司正在进入一个沉重的资本支出周期，这使得额外的债务筹集变得麻烦。Mobileye是英特尔发展最快的业务线之一。然而，出售其中的一小部分可能会为英特尔带来一大笔钱，这笔钱可以用于帕特·基辛格雄心勃勃的公司增长计划。根据我的分析，在当前的市场环境下，Mobileye 的估值可能达到 500 亿美元至 1000 亿美元，我认为英特尔最终将从 Mobileye IPO 中筹集约 100 亿美元至 150 亿美元，同时保留对公司的控制权。我喜欢英特尔管理层的这一举措，因为我可以看到这次分拆带来的巨大价值。</blockquote> Intel is a deeply undervalued cash cow that pays out a healthy, growing dividend. With the Mobileye IPO set to unlock some of Intel's hidden value, I expect to see big capital appreciation in Intel over the next 12-24 months. Therefore, I continue to rate Intel a strong buy at $50.<blockquote>英特尔是一头被严重低估的摇钱树，支付健康、不断增长的股息。随着 Mobileye IPO 将释放英特尔的一些隐藏价值，我预计英特尔将在未来 12-24 个月内大幅增值。因此，我继续给予英特尔 50 美元的强力买入评级。</blockquote> Key Takeaway: I rate Intel a strong buy at $50.<blockquote>关键要点：我以 50 美元的价格强力买入英特尔。</blockquote> Thanks for reading, and happy investing. Please share your thoughts, concerns, and/or questions in the comments section below.<blockquote>感谢您的阅读，祝您投资愉快。请在下面的评论区分享您的想法、担忧和/或问题。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel: Mobileye IPO Could Be A Masterstroke<blockquote>英特尔：Mobileye IPO 可能是一个绝妙的举动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel: Mobileye IPO Could Be A Masterstroke<blockquote>英特尔：Mobileye IPO 可能是一个绝妙的举动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-12-17 07:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Intel is spinning off Mobileye via an IPO in mid 2022 to raise capital for its ambitious growth plans. In this note, we will discuss the logic of this transaction.</li> <li>Mobileye is one of the leading players in autonomous vehicle technology, which means it should command a much higher multiple than Intel.</li> <li>At ~9x Price-to-FCF, Intel is massively undervalued, and as such Mobileye's valuation is suppressed. The IPO is likely to act as a significant value unlocking event for Intel.</li> <li>According to my analysis, Mobileye could quite easily fetch a valuation of $50-100B in the current market environment. Hence, Intel could raise a significant sum by selling just a minor stake.</li> <li>Even after the IPO, Intel will continue to control Mobileye with a majority stake, and Intel's CEO, Pat Gelsinger, will be shaping Mobileye's future as the Chairman of its Board. Hence, Intel is getting the best of both worlds with this deal. I rate Intel a strong buy at $50.</li> <li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Beating the Market get exclusive access to our model portfolio.</li> </ul> Introduction<blockquote><ul><li>英特尔将于 2022 年中期通过 IPO 分拆 Mobileye，为其雄心勃勃的增长计划筹集资金。在本说明中，我们将讨论此交易的逻辑。</li><li>Mobileye 是自动驾驶汽车技术领域的领先企业之一，这意味着它的市盈率应该比英特尔高得多。</li><li>英特尔的市盈率约为 9 倍，被严重低估，因此 Mobileye 的估值受到抑制。此次IPO可能会成为英特尔的一个重要价值释放事件。</li><li>根据我的分析，在当前的市场环境下，Mobileye可以很容易地获得50-100B美元的估值。因此，英特尔只需出售少量股份就可以筹集一大笔钱。</li><li>即使在 IPO 之后，英特尔仍将继续以多数股权控制 Mobileye，英特尔首席执行官帕特·基辛格 (Pat Gelsinger) 将作为董事会主席塑造 Mobileye 的未来。因此，英特尔通过这笔交易获得了两全其美的结果。我以 50 美元的价格强力买入英特尔。</li><li>寻找像这样的创意组合？击败市场的成员可以独家访问我们的模型组合。</li></ul>介绍</blockquote> Despite the astounding rally in chip stocks over the last 18-24 months, Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) valuation (~12x P/FCF) continues to remain depressed. The semiconductor supply shortage is showing no signs of abating, with Intel selling all that it could make. In 2021, Intel is set to generate record revenues and operating cash flows. Although Intel is facing margin pressures due to heightened competition, its business fundamentals remain strong. Intel's balance sheet and free cash flow generation are robust. An inflationary environment is supposed to be supportive of cash flow machines like Intel. Hence, the weak price action in Intel is puzzling (even after considering Intel's manufacturing woes over the last few years).<blockquote>尽管芯片股在过去 18-24 个月中出现了惊人的反弹，但英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）的估值（约 12 倍市盈率/自由现金流）仍然低迷。半导体供应短缺没有缓解的迹象，英特尔出售了所有能生产的产品。2021年，英特尔将产生创纪录的收入和运营现金流。尽管英特尔因竞争加剧而面临利润率压力，但其业务基本面依然强劲。英特尔的资产负债表和自由现金流生成非常强劲。通货膨胀环境应该有利于英特尔等现金流机器。因此，英特尔疲软的价格走势令人费解（即使考虑到英特尔过去几年的制造困境）。</blockquote> In today's note, we will focus our discussion on Intel's upcoming spinoff Mobileye, which is likely to act as a value unlocking catalyst for this chip giant.<blockquote>在今天的报告中，我们将重点讨论英特尔即将推出的衍生产品 Mobileye，该产品可能会成为这家芯片巨头价值解锁的催化剂。</blockquote> Let's begin our analysis by deciphering the logic behind an IPO for Mobileye.<blockquote>让我们从解读 Mobileye IPO 背后的逻辑开始分析。</blockquote> Understanding The Motivation Behind Intel's Mobileye Spinoff<blockquote>了解英特尔分拆 Mobileye 背后的动机</blockquote> Soon after rejoining Intel as CEO, Pat Gelsinger outlined an aggressive hybrid-sourcing and foundry plan to take the semiconductor giant back to its past glory (after some woeful execution from previous management). On paper, Pat's strategy is very simple. Intel will outsource next-gen chip manufacturing to foundries like TSMC (NYSE:TSM), which would enable them to compete against rivals like AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). While Intel is working toward fixing its manufacturing woes and regaining the technological lead at the node level, the company also is opening up its manufacturing plants in the Western Hemisphere for other companies (i.e., entering the foundry business).<blockquote>在重新加入英特尔担任首席执行官后不久，帕特·基辛格概述了一项积极的混合采购和代工计划，旨在让这家半导体巨头重返昔日的辉煌（在前任管理层进行了一些糟糕的执行之后）。从纸面上看，帕特的策略非常简单。英特尔将把下一代芯片制造外包给台积电（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TSM）等代工厂，这将使他们能够与 AMD（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英伟达（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）等竞争对手竞争。虽然英特尔正在努力解决其制造困境，并在节点层面重新获得技术领先地位，但该公司也在向其他公司开放其在西半球的制造工厂（即进入代工业务）。</blockquote> The semiconductor industry is undergoing a painful supply crisis that has had far-reaching impacts across multiple industries. With the EV revolution, the demand for automotive chips is set to explode higher. Hence, the chip shortage could last for years and years. Only a handful of companies can solve this crisis, and Intel is probably the only company that could help abate this semiconductor shortage in the Western Hemisphere.<blockquote>半导体行业正在经历一场痛苦的供应危机，这场危机对多个行业产生了深远影响。随着电动汽车革命，对汽车芯片的需求将会爆炸式增长。因此，芯片短缺可能会持续很多年。只有少数几家公司能够解决这场危机，而英特尔可能是唯一一家能够帮助缓解西半球半导体短缺问题的公司。</blockquote> Pat Gelsinger has put forward an aggressive growth plan for Intel, which could see the company growing at ~10-12% CAGR from 2023-2027. However, Pat's plan is highly capital intensive, and so Intel needs more capital.<blockquote>帕特·基辛格 (Pat Gelsinger) 为英特尔提出了一项积极的增长计划，预计该公司从 2023 年到 2027 年的复合年增长率将达到约 10-12%。然而，帕特的计划是高度资本密集型的，因此英特尔需要更多的资本。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/469130405b455b41aba450a41af1ccd1\" tg-width=\"1122\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Intel is set to enter a heavy capex-spending cycle with plans to increase capex for 2022 to ~$25B-$28B. With Intel's stock trading close to record low valuation (by P/FCF) from the past 10 years, raising capital through fresh equity issuance would be highly dilutionary for Intel's shareholders. Intel is one of the most-hated stocks on Wall Street, and the management certainly is not interested in alienating more of its investor base. Hence, a capital raise through equity is ruled out.<blockquote>英特尔将进入一个繁重的资本支出周期，计划将 2022 年的资本支出增加到约 $25B-$28B。由于英特尔股票交易接近过去10年的历史最低估值（按市盈率计算），通过新的股票发行筹集资金对英特尔股东来说将是高度稀释的。英特尔是华尔街最令人憎恨的股票之一，管理层当然没有兴趣疏远更多的投资者基础。因此，排除了通过股权融资的可能性。</blockquote> Another way to raise capital would be through debt issuance, and Intel's balance sheet and free cash flow generation are strong enough to allow for more debt. However, Intel's margins are set to come under pressure due to a potential price war with the likes of AMD, and with increased CAPEX-spending, Intel's free cash flows may suffer too in the near term. Hence, Intel's management could be unwilling to raise more capital via debt (which already stands at ~$40B).<blockquote>另一种筹集资金的方式是通过发债，而英特尔的资产负债表和自由现金流产生足够强劲，可以承担更多债务。然而，由于与 AMD 等公司潜在的价格战，英特尔的利润率将面临压力，而且随着资本支出的增加，英特尔的自由现金流在短期内也可能受到影响。因此，英特尔管理层可能不愿意通过债务筹集更多资本（债务已经达到约 40B 美元）。</blockquote> Asset monetization was probably the only viable alternative for raising capital to fund Intel's growth plan. And if we look at Intel's business, Mobileye is probably the most under-appreciated asset buried under a steep conglomerate discount. Mobileye is a category-leading business in autonomous driving (one of the hottest spaces in the market), and it would undoubtedly command a much higher trading multiple in the current market environment than what Intel paid for it back in 2017. Hence, the Mobileye spinoff is a very sound and logical decision from Intel's management.<blockquote>资产货币化可能是筹集资金为英特尔增长计划提供资金的唯一可行选择。如果我们看看英特尔的业务，Mobileye 可能是被企业集团大幅折扣掩盖的最被低估的资产。Mobileye是自动驾驶领域的领先企业（市场上最热门的领域之一），在当前的市场环境下，它的交易倍数无疑会比英特尔在2017年支付的价格高得多。因此，Mobileye分拆是英特尔管理层做出的一个非常明智和合乎逻辑的决定。</blockquote> Pat Says Mobileye Is Comparable To Tesla! Is It Though?<blockquote>帕特说Mobileye堪比特斯拉!是吗？</blockquote> In 2017, Intel acquired Mobileye for an eye-watering sum of ~$15.3B. Since this acquisition, Mobileye has delivered significant revenue growth, achieved numerous technical innovations, and invested capital toward solving the most critical problems in the scaled deployment of autonomous driving technology. Unlike most IPOs, Mobileye is already a highly-profitable company. Hence, Intel could get a big return on its investment by selling a minority stake in Mobileye.<blockquote>2017 年，英特尔以约 15.3B 美元的惊人价格收购了 Mobileye。自此次收购以来，Mobileye实现了显著的收入增长，实现了众多技术创新，并投入资金解决了自动驾驶技术大规模部署中最关键的问题。与大多数 IPO 不同，Mobileye 已经是一家高利润的公司。因此，英特尔可以通过出售Mobileye的少数股权获得丰厚的投资回报。</blockquote> In the last 12 months, Mobileye has generated revenues of $1.36B, with operating profits coming in at $471M (operating margin of ~35%). Also, Mobileye achieved the milestone of delivering its 100 millionth EyeQ SOC, unveiled its production robotaxi (network coming live in 2022) and won 41 new ADAS and full self-driving programs with 30 legacy automakers. In a nutshell, Mobileye has taken tremendous strides both from a technical and financial standpoint.<blockquote>过去 12 个月，Mobileye 的收入为 13.6 亿美元，营业利润为 4.71 亿美元（营业利润率约为 35%）。此外，Mobileye 实现了交付第 1 亿台 EyeQ SOC 的里程碑，推出了量产版 robotaxi（网络将于 2022 年上线），并与 30 家传统汽车制造商合作赢得了 41 个新的 ADAS 和全自动驾驶项目。简而言之，Mobileye 从技术和财务角度都取得了巨大的进步。</blockquote> Since Mobileye has always operated as an independent subsidiary within Intel, the separation won't be hard. The strategic partnership with Intel will remain in place, and higher visibility should enable Mobileye to win more partners across the globe. With its robotaxi network set to go live in 2022, Mobileye is probably going to be the first to market in L3/L4 AV technology.<blockquote>由于 Mobileye 一直作为英特尔内部的独立子公司运营，因此分离并不困难。与英特尔的战略合作伙伴关系将继续存在，更高的知名度将使Mobileye能够在全球赢得更多合作伙伴。随着其机器人出租车网络将于2022年上线，Mobileye可能会成为第一个推出L3/L4 AV技术的公司。</blockquote> Mobileye is truly at an inflection point, and its future looks as bright as ever. Some critics would say that Intel is selling its future to chase the past. However, we must acknowledge the realities around us. The hype around autonomous driving and EVs has never been higher, and Mobileye's spectacular growth story is buried under Intel's umbrella. By bringing Mobileye to the public markets as a standalone entity, Intel is likely to receive a cash boost (at a rich trading multiple), whilst it will also maintain its majority stake (control) in the company.<blockquote>Mobileye确实处于拐点，它的未来看起来一如既往地光明。一些批评者会说，英特尔正在出卖自己的未来来追逐过去。然而，我们必须承认我们周围的现实。围绕自动驾驶和电动汽车的炒作从未如此之高，Mobileye 惊人的增长故事被埋没在英特尔的保护伞下。通过将 Mobileye 作为一个独立实体推向公开市场，英特尔可能会获得现金增长（以丰富的交易倍数），同时还将保持其在该公司的多数股权（控制权）。</blockquote> Although Pat compared Mobileye to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) due to its AV technology (and future Robotaxi business), I think it's more comparable to Nvidia. For the purpose of this note, we shall create a guesstimate for Mobileye's valuation using trading multiples for both Tesla and Nvidia. Due to its relatively small size, I would expect Mobileye to command a higher multiple than these companies.<blockquote>尽管 Pat 因其 AV 技术（以及未来的机器人出租车业务）而将 Mobileye 与特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）进行了比较，但我认为它与 Nvidia 更具可比性。出于本说明的目的，我们将使用特斯拉和英伟达的交易倍数来创建 Mobileye 估值的猜测。由于其规模相对较小，我预计 Mobileye 的市盈率会高于这些公司。</blockquote> Looking through the lens of relative valuation, Mobileye's IPO could be valued anywhere in the range of ~$50B to $70B. However, let us also determine Mobileye's absolute valuation using its financials.<blockquote>从相对估值的角度来看，Mobileye 的 IPO 估值可能在约 $50B 到 $70B 之间。然而，让我们也利用 Mobileye 的财务数据来确定其绝对估值。</blockquote> Estimating Mobileye's Fair Value<blockquote>估计 Mobileye 的公允价值</blockquote> To determine Mobileye's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:<blockquote>为厘定Mobileye的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。以下是它需要的内容：</blockquote> <ul> <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</li> <li></li> <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</li> <li></li> <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</li> <li></li> <li>In step 4, the model accounts for dividends.</li> </ul> Assumptions:<blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流被我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li><li></li><li>在步骤2中，该模型考虑了流通股变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li><li></li><li>在第三步中，我们在十年结束时对未来增长前景进行估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和 10 年底的预计股价得出 CAGR。如果这比市场有足够的优势，我们就会投资。如果没有，我们等待更好的切入点。</li><li></li><li>在步骤4中，模型考虑了股息。</li></ul>假设：</blockquote> Mobileye is a rapidly-growing, highly-profitable business. With a massive TAM and leading ADAS &amp; Autonomous Vehicle [AV] technology, Mobileye is set to ride an enormous secular growth trend as the shift to autonomous-driving EVs accelerates over the 2020s. Hence, a 10-year CAGR growth rate of 25% could be highly conservative. As the MoovitAV robotaxi network grows, Mobileye's margins are likely to head higher. Therefore, Mobileye's FCF margin could quite comfortably hover at more than 30% when the business matures, and growth slows down (not going to happen for another decade or two).<blockquote>Mobileye是一项快速增长、高利润的业务。凭借庞大的TAM和领先的ADAS和自动驾驶汽车[AV]技术，随着2020年代向自动驾驶电动汽车的加速转变，Mobileye将迎来巨大的长期增长趋势。因此，25%的10年CAGR增长率可能是高度保守的。随着 MoovitAV 机器人出租车网络的发展，Mobileye 的利润率可能会更高。因此，当业务成熟且增长放缓时，Mobileye 的自由现金流利润率可以相当轻松地徘徊在 30% 以上（这种情况在未来一二十年内不会发生）。</blockquote> As you can see, Mobileye is worth ~$15 per share or ~$60B market cap. The assumptions utilized in this valuation exercise are conservative, which means Mobileye could be worth even more than $60B.<blockquote>如您所见，Mobileye 每股价值约 15 美元，市值约为 60B 美元。本次估值工作中使用的假设是保守的，这意味着 Mobileye 的价值可能超过 $60B。</blockquote> If Mobileye's 10-year CAGR revenue growth rate were to be in the 30%-50% range (instead of our estimate of 25%), Mobileye's fair value would come out to be ~$88B to ~$340B. At a $1T valuation, Tesla's implied 10-year CAGR revenue growth rate is ~50%. Since Mobileye is growing from a much smaller base, and considering the fact that it could become the industry standard for AV technology (by leveraging existing relationships with legacy automakers like Ford, BMW, and many others), I would imagine Mobileye has a better chance of delivering such hyper-growth than Tesla.<blockquote>如果 Mobileye 的 10 年 CAGR 收入增长率在 30%-50% 范围内（而不是我们估计的 25%），则 Mobileye 的公允价值将达到约 $88B 至约 $340B。按 1 万美元估值计算，特斯拉隐含 10 年复合年增长率收入增长率约为 50%。由于 Mobileye 的基础要小得多，并且考虑到它可能成为 AV 技术的行业标准（通过利用与福特、宝马等传统汽车制造商的现有关系），我认为 Mobileye 比特斯拉更有机会实现这种高速增长。</blockquote> Even after the spinoff of Mobileye, Intel would generate revenues of ~$73B in 2022 with virtually zero impact on its cash flow generation. Although Intel will lose one of its key assets in this transaction (not really, as Intel will still control Mobileye through a majority stake), the proceeds will help Intel's management execute its ambitious growth plans. Using conservative estimates, Intel (minus Mobileye) is still worth ~$70 per share (~$280B market cap) (this valuation exercise is available in my previous articles on Intel). Therefore, the Mobileye spinoff is very likely to unlock hidden value for Intel's shareholders.<blockquote>即使在 Mobileye 分拆之后，英特尔在 2022 年仍将产生约 73B 美元的收入，对其现金流产生的影响几乎为零。尽管英特尔将在此次交易中失去一项关键资产（实际上并非如此，因为英特尔仍将通过多数股权控制 Mobileye），但所得收益将帮助英特尔管理层执行其雄心勃勃的增长计划。根据保守估计，英特尔（减去 Mobileye）每股仍价值约 70 美元（市值约 280B 美元）（此估值练习可在我之前关于英特尔的文章中找到）。因此，Mobileye 分拆很可能为英特尔股东释放隐藏的价值。</blockquote> Concluding Thoughts<blockquote>结束语</blockquote> With Intel's market cap hovering at just about $200B, raising capital through stock issuance is not viable. Although Intel's balance sheet and free cash flow generation remain robust, the company is entering a heavy capex-spending cycle, which makes an additional debt raise troublesome. Mobileye is one of the faster-growing business lines at Intel. However, selling a small piece of it could yield a massive sum for Intel, which could be utilized toward Pat Gelsinger's ambitious growth plan for the company. According to my analysis, Mobileye could fetch a valuation of $50B-$100B in the current market environment, and I think Intel will end up raising ~$10B-$15B from the Mobileye IPO while retaining control of the company. I like this move from Intel's management as I can see significant value unlocking from this spinoff.<blockquote>由于英特尔的市值徘徊在2000亿美元左右，通过发行股票筹集资金是不可行的。尽管英特尔的资产负债表和自由现金流生成仍然强劲，但该公司正在进入一个沉重的资本支出周期，这使得额外的债务筹集变得麻烦。Mobileye是英特尔发展最快的业务线之一。然而，出售其中的一小部分可能会为英特尔带来一大笔钱，这笔钱可以用于帕特·基辛格雄心勃勃的公司增长计划。根据我的分析，在当前的市场环境下，Mobileye 的估值可能达到 500 亿美元至 1000 亿美元，我认为英特尔最终将从 Mobileye IPO 中筹集约 100 亿美元至 150 亿美元，同时保留对公司的控制权。我喜欢英特尔管理层的这一举措，因为我可以看到这次分拆带来的巨大价值。</blockquote> Intel is a deeply undervalued cash cow that pays out a healthy, growing dividend. With the Mobileye IPO set to unlock some of Intel's hidden value, I expect to see big capital appreciation in Intel over the next 12-24 months. Therefore, I continue to rate Intel a strong buy at $50.<blockquote>英特尔是一头被严重低估的摇钱树，支付健康、不断增长的股息。随着 Mobileye IPO 将释放英特尔的一些隐藏价值，我预计英特尔将在未来 12-24 个月内大幅增值。因此，我继续给予英特尔 50 美元的强力买入评级。</blockquote> Key Takeaway: I rate Intel a strong buy at $50.<blockquote>关键要点：我以 50 美元的价格强力买入英特尔。</blockquote> Thanks for reading, and happy investing. Please share your thoughts, concerns, and/or questions in the comments section below.<blockquote>感谢您的阅读，祝您投资愉快。请在下面的评论区分享您的想法、担忧和/或问题。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474906-intel-mobileye-ipo-masterstroke\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474906-intel-mobileye-ipo-masterstroke","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169026598","content_text":"Summary\n\nIntel is spinning off Mobileye via an IPO in mid 2022 to raise capital for its ambitious growth plans. In this note, we will discuss the logic of this transaction.\nMobileye is one of the leading players in autonomous vehicle technology, which means it should command a much higher multiple than Intel.\nAt ~9x Price-to-FCF, Intel is massively undervalued, and as such Mobileye's valuation is suppressed. The IPO is likely to act as a significant value unlocking event for Intel.\nAccording to my analysis, Mobileye could quite easily fetch a valuation of $50-100B in the current market environment. Hence, Intel could raise a significant sum by selling just a minor stake.\nEven after the IPO, Intel will continue to control Mobileye with a majority stake, and Intel's CEO, Pat Gelsinger, will be shaping Mobileye's future as the Chairman of its Board. Hence, Intel is getting the best of both worlds with this deal. I rate Intel a strong buy at $50.\nLooking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Beating the Market get exclusive access to our model portfolio.\n\nIntroduction\nDespite the astounding rally in chip stocks over the last 18-24 months, Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) valuation (~12x P/FCF) continues to remain depressed. The semiconductor supply shortage is showing no signs of abating, with Intel selling all that it could make. In 2021, Intel is set to generate record revenues and operating cash flows. Although Intel is facing margin pressures due to heightened competition, its business fundamentals remain strong. Intel's balance sheet and free cash flow generation are robust. An inflationary environment is supposed to be supportive of cash flow machines like Intel. Hence, the weak price action in Intel is puzzling (even after considering Intel's manufacturing woes over the last few years).\nIn today's note, we will focus our discussion on Intel's upcoming spinoff Mobileye, which is likely to act as a value unlocking catalyst for this chip giant.\nLet's begin our analysis by deciphering the logic behind an IPO for Mobileye.\nUnderstanding The Motivation Behind Intel's Mobileye Spinoff\nSoon after rejoining Intel as CEO, Pat Gelsinger outlined an aggressive hybrid-sourcing and foundry plan to take the semiconductor giant back to its past glory (after some woeful execution from previous management). On paper, Pat's strategy is very simple. Intel will outsource next-gen chip manufacturing to foundries like TSMC (NYSE:TSM), which would enable them to compete against rivals like AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). While Intel is working toward fixing its manufacturing woes and regaining the technological lead at the node level, the company also is opening up its manufacturing plants in the Western Hemisphere for other companies (i.e., entering the foundry business).\n\nThe semiconductor industry is undergoing a painful supply crisis that has had far-reaching impacts across multiple industries. With the EV revolution, the demand for automotive chips is set to explode higher. Hence, the chip shortage could last for years and years. Only a handful of companies can solve this crisis, and Intel is probably the only company that could help abate this semiconductor shortage in the Western Hemisphere.\nPat Gelsinger has put forward an aggressive growth plan for Intel, which could see the company growing at ~10-12% CAGR from 2023-2027. However, Pat's plan is highly capital intensive, and so Intel needs more capital.\n\nIntel is set to enter a heavy capex-spending cycle with plans to increase capex for 2022 to ~$25B-$28B. With Intel's stock trading close to record low valuation (by P/FCF) from the past 10 years, raising capital through fresh equity issuance would be highly dilutionary for Intel's shareholders. Intel is one of the most-hated stocks on Wall Street, and the management certainly is not interested in alienating more of its investor base. Hence, a capital raise through equity is ruled out.\nAnother way to raise capital would be through debt issuance, and Intel's balance sheet and free cash flow generation are strong enough to allow for more debt. However, Intel's margins are set to come under pressure due to a potential price war with the likes of AMD, and with increased CAPEX-spending, Intel's free cash flows may suffer too in the near term. Hence, Intel's management could be unwilling to raise more capital via debt (which already stands at ~$40B).\nAsset monetization was probably the only viable alternative for raising capital to fund Intel's growth plan. And if we look at Intel's business, Mobileye is probably the most under-appreciated asset buried under a steep conglomerate discount. Mobileye is a category-leading business in autonomous driving (one of the hottest spaces in the market), and it would undoubtedly command a much higher trading multiple in the current market environment than what Intel paid for it back in 2017. Hence, the Mobileye spinoff is a very sound and logical decision from Intel's management.\nPat Says Mobileye Is Comparable To Tesla! Is It Though?\nIn 2017, Intel acquired Mobileye for an eye-watering sum of ~$15.3B. Since this acquisition, Mobileye has delivered significant revenue growth, achieved numerous technical innovations, and invested capital toward solving the most critical problems in the scaled deployment of autonomous driving technology. Unlike most IPOs, Mobileye is already a highly-profitable company. Hence, Intel could get a big return on its investment by selling a minority stake in Mobileye.\nIn the last 12 months, Mobileye has generated revenues of $1.36B, with operating profits coming in at $471M (operating margin of ~35%). Also, Mobileye achieved the milestone of delivering its 100 millionth EyeQ SOC, unveiled its production robotaxi (network coming live in 2022) and won 41 new ADAS and full self-driving programs with 30 legacy automakers. In a nutshell, Mobileye has taken tremendous strides both from a technical and financial standpoint.\nSince Mobileye has always operated as an independent subsidiary within Intel, the separation won't be hard. The strategic partnership with Intel will remain in place, and higher visibility should enable Mobileye to win more partners across the globe. With its robotaxi network set to go live in 2022, Mobileye is probably going to be the first to market in L3/L4 AV technology.\nMobileye is truly at an inflection point, and its future looks as bright as ever. Some critics would say that Intel is selling its future to chase the past. However, we must acknowledge the realities around us. The hype around autonomous driving and EVs has never been higher, and Mobileye's spectacular growth story is buried under Intel's umbrella. By bringing Mobileye to the public markets as a standalone entity, Intel is likely to receive a cash boost (at a rich trading multiple), whilst it will also maintain its majority stake (control) in the company.\nAlthough Pat compared Mobileye to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) due to its AV technology (and future Robotaxi business), I think it's more comparable to Nvidia. For the purpose of this note, we shall create a guesstimate for Mobileye's valuation using trading multiples for both Tesla and Nvidia. Due to its relatively small size, I would expect Mobileye to command a higher multiple than these companies.\nLooking through the lens of relative valuation, Mobileye's IPO could be valued anywhere in the range of ~$50B to $70B. However, let us also determine Mobileye's absolute valuation using its financials.\nEstimating Mobileye's Fair Value\nTo determine Mobileye's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\n\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\n\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\n\nIn step 4, the model accounts for dividends.\n\nAssumptions:\nMobileye is a rapidly-growing, highly-profitable business. With a massive TAM and leading ADAS & Autonomous Vehicle [AV] technology, Mobileye is set to ride an enormous secular growth trend as the shift to autonomous-driving EVs accelerates over the 2020s. Hence, a 10-year CAGR growth rate of 25% could be highly conservative. As the MoovitAV robotaxi network grows, Mobileye's margins are likely to head higher. Therefore, Mobileye's FCF margin could quite comfortably hover at more than 30% when the business matures, and growth slows down (not going to happen for another decade or two).\nAs you can see, Mobileye is worth ~$15 per share or ~$60B market cap. The assumptions utilized in this valuation exercise are conservative, which means Mobileye could be worth even more than $60B.\nIf Mobileye's 10-year CAGR revenue growth rate were to be in the 30%-50% range (instead of our estimate of 25%), Mobileye's fair value would come out to be ~$88B to ~$340B. At a $1T valuation, Tesla's implied 10-year CAGR revenue growth rate is ~50%. Since Mobileye is growing from a much smaller base, and considering the fact that it could become the industry standard for AV technology (by leveraging existing relationships with legacy automakers like Ford, BMW, and many others), I would imagine Mobileye has a better chance of delivering such hyper-growth than Tesla.\nEven after the spinoff of Mobileye, Intel would generate revenues of ~$73B in 2022 with virtually zero impact on its cash flow generation. Although Intel will lose one of its key assets in this transaction (not really, as Intel will still control Mobileye through a majority stake), the proceeds will help Intel's management execute its ambitious growth plans. Using conservative estimates, Intel (minus Mobileye) is still worth ~$70 per share (~$280B market cap) (this valuation exercise is available in my previous articles on Intel). Therefore, the Mobileye spinoff is very likely to unlock hidden value for Intel's shareholders.\nConcluding Thoughts\nWith Intel's market cap hovering at just about $200B, raising capital through stock issuance is not viable. Although Intel's balance sheet and free cash flow generation remain robust, the company is entering a heavy capex-spending cycle, which makes an additional debt raise troublesome. Mobileye is one of the faster-growing business lines at Intel. However, selling a small piece of it could yield a massive sum for Intel, which could be utilized toward Pat Gelsinger's ambitious growth plan for the company. According to my analysis, Mobileye could fetch a valuation of $50B-$100B in the current market environment, and I think Intel will end up raising ~$10B-$15B from the Mobileye IPO while retaining control of the company. I like this move from Intel's management as I can see significant value unlocking from this spinoff.\nIntel is a deeply undervalued cash cow that pays out a healthy, growing dividend. With the Mobileye IPO set to unlock some of Intel's hidden value, I expect to see big capital appreciation in Intel over the next 12-24 months. Therefore, I continue to rate Intel a strong buy at $50.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Intel a strong buy at $50.\nThanks for reading, and happy investing. Please share your thoughts, concerns, and/or questions in the comments section below.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4063,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/699056069"}