SkylerTan
2021-12-17
Daily mission, like pls thanks
Uber: Ugly Duckling Is Growing Up<blockquote>优步：丑小鸭正在长大</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
1
6
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":699066029,"tweetId":"699066029","gmtCreate":1639724262921,"gmtModify":1639724263259,"author":{"id":3577269269445542,"idStr":"3577269269445542","authorId":3577269269445542,"authorIdStr":"3577269269445542","name":"SkylerTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7599105f5c2badfffd8c14fb075b48b","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":27,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Daily mission, like pls thanks</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Daily mission, like pls thanks</p></body></html>","text":"Daily mission, like pls thanks","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699066029","repostId":1108936663,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108936663","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639723361,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108936663?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 14:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber: Ugly Duckling Is Growing Up<blockquote>优步：丑小鸭正在长大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108936663","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nUber's delivery business is booming and expanding resulting in the company leveraging econo","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Uber's delivery business is booming and expanding resulting in the company leveraging economies of scale to reach profitability.</li> <li>Mobility business is fast recovering from the pandemic as the economies reopen.</li> <li>Future lockdowns and covid restrictions that were seen before are not likely.</li> <li>Therefore, Uber may be the ugly duckling waiting to become a swan.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b93f3ad8b1091da22c151e759153e2\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MOZCO Mateusz Szymanski/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>优步的送货业务正在蓬勃发展并不断扩大，导致该公司利用规模经济实现盈利。</li><li>随着经济重新开放，移动业务正在从疫情迅速复苏。</li><li>未来不太可能出现以前看到的封锁和covid限制。</li><li>因此，Uber可能是等待变成天鹅的丑小鸭。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MOZCO Mateusz Szymanski/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction and Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>导言和论文</b></blockquote></p><p> I am starting to believe that Uber's(NYSE:UBER)story is unfolding like the story of the ugly duckling. In the early days of going public, Uber suffered ignorance and unfavorable views from the investing community just like the ugly duckling, but today, I believe Uber is just around the corner from blossoming into a beautiful and successful swan.</p><p><blockquote>我开始相信优步（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UBER）的故事正在像丑小鸭的故事一样展开。在上市初期，Uber就像丑小鸭一样遭受着投资界的无知和不利看法，但今天，我相信Uber离绽放成一只美丽而成功的天鹅指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> Uber's business is turning around as the underlying trend forms in favor of the company. From the depths of the pandemic to the pace of recovery seen today, the world changed for good, at least for Uber. One of those changes is food delivery. During the pandemic, consumers could not comfortably leave their houses and dine out resulting in those consumers turning to food delivery permanently growing a business that has been the primary reason for Uber's continuous losses. Thus, as the trend of food delivery continues to grow from the pandemic, Uber's business through economies of scale has been enjoying the favorable trend, and I believe that the convenience of food delivery will allow permanent penetration of delivery in our daily lives. Further, as mobility recovers as well from the pandemic in all aspects, Uber is likely to report a profitable 2022 fiscal year. Although there are risks of dilution,Covid and macroeconomic risks, I believe now is finally the time to consider investing in the ugly duckling.</p><p><blockquote>随着潜在趋势对该公司有利，优步的业务正在好转。从疫情的深渊到今天的复苏步伐，世界变得更好了，至少对优步来说是这样。其中一个变化是食品配送。在疫情期间，消费者无法舒适地离开家外出就餐，导致这些消费者转向送餐业务，这是优步持续亏损的主要原因。因此，随着外卖趋势从疫情持续增长，优步通过规模经济的业务一直在享受有利趋势，我相信外卖的便利性将使外卖永久渗透到我们的日常生活中。此外，随着出行在各个方面都从疫情中恢复，Uber可能会在2022财年实现盈利。尽管存在稀释风险、新冠疫情和宏观经济风险，但我相信现在终于是考虑投资丑小鸭的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favorable Trend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有利趋势</b></blockquote></p><p> Pandemic brought devastation across nearly all industries and aspects of our lives; however, for Uber, I believe pandemic turned out to be beneficial for the company. Uber's major businesses are delivery and mobility. Before the pandemic, while the mobility business was starting to report positive adjusted EBTIDA, the delivery business continued to struggle. The market was relatively smaller and competitive leading to Uber spending immense amounts of capital on sales, marketing, and development. Even worse, the economies of scale were not seen at the time. However, times have changed for the delivery business. First, the food delivery industry exploded in popularity. For example, Uber's delivery business grew almost 3 fold from 2019Q4. This massive growth in the industry allowed Uber to leverage economies of scale leading to improving bottom lines. Further, the adaption of the delivery culture in the daily lives of the people allowed Uber to expand its business to more than delivering foods. The company is currently delivering groceries, Christmas trees, and even alcoholic beverages. Therefore, as the market continues to mature, Uber can leverage economies of scale to turn around its loss-leading delivery business into a profitable giant.</p><p><blockquote>疫情给我们生活的几乎所有行业和方方面面带来了破坏；然而，对于优步来说，我相信疫情对公司有利。Uber的主要业务是送货和移动出行。在大流行之前，虽然移动业务开始报告积极的调整后EBTIDA，但交付业务继续陷入困境。市场相对较小且竞争激烈，导致优步在销售、营销和开发上花费了大量资金。更糟糕的是，当时没有看到规模经济。然而，对于快递业务来说，时代已经变了。一是外卖行业爆火。例如，Uber的配送业务较2019年第四季度增长了近3倍。该行业的巨大增长使Uber能够利用规模经济来提高利润。此外，外卖文化在人们日常生活中的适应使优步能够将其业务扩展到外卖之外。该公司目前正在运送食品杂货、圣诞树，甚至酒精饮料。因此，随着市场的不断成熟，Uber可以利用规模经济将亏损领先的外卖业务扭亏为盈。</blockquote></p><p> Some critics may argue that delivery was only successful because consumers were not comfortable going outside during the pandemic. I would like to argue otherwise. A pandemic may have been the driving factor behind the adaption of the delivery service by the public; however, convenience was what is and will sustain this business model. Through innovation seen in the past decades, we have seen how much consumers care about convenience through the rise of Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms(NASDAQ:FB), and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL). Why socialize digitally when you can meet others physically? Why order packages online and wait days when you can simply go buy that product today? Why use smartphones when you already had mobile phones? Consumers will never go back to the more inconvenient way of life.</p><p><blockquote>一些批评者可能会认为，送货之所以成功，只是因为消费者在疫情期间不愿意外出。我想提出不同的观点。疫情可能是公众适应送货服务背后的驱动因素；然而，便利性是维持这种商业模式的动力。通过过去几十年的创新，我们看到了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）、Meta Platforms（纳斯达克：FB）和苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）的崛起，消费者是多么关心便利性。当你可以与他人见面时，为什么还要进行数字社交呢？当你今天就可以去购买产品的时候，为什么要在网上订购套餐，然后等上几天呢？既然已经有了手机，为什么还要用智能手机呢？消费者永远不会回到更不方便的生活方式。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike the delivery business, the mobility business was damaged by the pandemic, but it is expected that the mobility business will return to 2019 levels as the impact of the pandemic wanes. As the picture below shows, the mobility business in the world's biggest cities has almost returned to normalcy after the lockdown showing that the demand for ride-hailing services is still present. Further, as pandemic subsides and offices re-open, the mobility business will continue to grow.</p><p><blockquote>与配送业务不同，移动出行业务受到了疫情的损害，但预计随着疫情影响的减弱，移动出行业务将恢复到2019年的水平。如下图所示，全球最大城市的移动业务在封锁后几乎恢复正常，这表明对网约车服务的需求仍然存在。此外，随着疫情的消退和办公室的重新开放，移动业务将继续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a5ee8af7dd1261e2686a20efa4d3b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Covid Fears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新冠恐惧</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Although pandemic was the leading cause of the delivery business success, a worsening pandemic will most likely damage my bullish thesis. A mobility business, a business segment set to lead profitability, will be heavily damaged; however, contrary to the mainstream media's opinion, I believe this scenario is unlikely to unfold due to vaccines and public sentiments.</p><p><blockquote>尽管疫情是快递业务成功的主要原因，但不断恶化的疫情很可能会损害我的看涨论点。移动业务是一个将引领盈利能力的业务部门，将受到严重损害；然而，与主流媒体的观点相反，我认为由于疫苗和公众情绪，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer(NYSE:PFE) on December 8th confirmed that theirCovid vaccines are still effective against the Omicron variant. The company said that a preliminary study \"demonstrates that three doses [of the vaccines] neutralize the Omicron variant while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers.\" The company's claims are backed by Omicron orCovid outbreak unfolding in many European nations including Italy, France, the UK, and more.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PFE）12月8日证实，他们的新冠疫苗对奥密克戎变种仍然有效。该公司表示，一项初步研究“表明，三剂[疫苗]可以中和奥密克戎变种，而两剂则显示中和滴度显着降低。”该公司的说法得到了奥密克戎或新冠疫情在许多欧洲国家爆发的支持，包括义大利、法、英等。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe98b474db7223afa7617f0cb8545e42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8849809f79a66a367009de9b31677d63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/415cdc534da7dc5a6d6f9e754adf099e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Using France as an example, the first picture above shows theCovid cases rising exponentially while the second picture shows the death rate is range-bound. The vaccination rate, shown in the third picture, backs up Pfizer's claim regarding the efficacy of its vaccines because while infections are rising, fatalities are limited due to the vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>以法国为例，上面的第一张图显示了Covid病例呈指数级上升，而第二张图显示了死亡率在一定范围内。第三张图所示的疫苗接种率支持了辉瑞关于其疫苗功效的说法，因为虽然感染率在上升，但疫苗导致的死亡人数有限。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the public's resent for more lockdowns and extreme restrictions are most likely to make Uber's mobility segment of the business more resilient than previous outbreaks.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公众对更多封锁和极端限制的不满很可能会使优步的移动业务部门比之前的疫情爆发更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Uber's balance sheet along with valuation is great. According to Uber's quarterly report, Uber reported revenue growth of 72% year-over-year to $4.8 billion dollars with $8 million positive adjusted EBITDA. After years of losses, the delivery businesses reached a near breakeven level to -0.1% adjusted EBITDA margin. Further, the company's mobility or mobility business had a 5.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, which was on par with the pre-pandemic margins. Overall, the continual improvement of the company's business is resulting in decreasing losses and a stronger balance sheet. Uber has about $5.6 billion in cash and about $33 billion in total assets while the total liabilities were about $20 billion bringing total liability to asset ratio (L/A) to about 60%. All in all, I believe Uber's balance sheet is strong enough to sustain the company's operation given no major changes.</p><p><blockquote>Uber的资产负债表和估值都很棒。根据Uber的季度报告，Uber报告收入同比增长72%，达到48亿美元，调整后EBITDA为800万美元。经过多年的亏损后，快递业务达到了接近盈亏平衡的水平，调整后EBITDA利润率为-0.1%。此外，该公司的移动或移动业务调整后EBITDA利润率为5.5%，与大流行前的利润率持平。总体而言，公司业务的持续改善导致亏损减少和资产负债表更加强劲。优步拥有约56亿美元现金和约330亿美元总资产，而总负债约为200亿美元，总资产负债率(L/A)约为60%。总而言之，我相信在没有重大变化的情况下，Uber的资产负债表足以维持公司的运营。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation of Uber is slightly high. Uber, still unprofitable, trades at about 4.7 times price to sales ratio and about 3 times the forward price to sales ratio. These numbers may seem minimal in comparison with other companies, but because the margin expansion for Uber is questionable, I would say that Uber's valuation today is slightly high. However, as the business turns to reach profitability in the near future, I think the slightly high valuation seen in Uber may be manageable for some investors.</p><p><blockquote>Uber的估值略高。仍未盈利的Uber的市销率约为4.7倍，远期市销率约为3倍。与其他公司相比，这些数字似乎很小，但由于Uber的利润率扩张值得怀疑，我想说Uber目前的估值略高。然而，随着该业务在不久的将来实现盈利，我认为优步略高的估值对于一些投资者来说可能是可以控制的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Investing in Uber comes with significant risks including dilution risks and macroeconomic risks. Uber has been extremely unprofitable for the past years resulting in massive dilution.Uber's outstanding shares increased 12.35% in 2018, 160.62% in 2019, 40.42% in 2020, and 8.2% to date in 2021. As such, to maintain the company's operations, Uber continuously diluted its existing shareholders. Thus, any hurdles to reaching profitability may result in even more dilution in the future. Also, the reason for Uber's financial health today is because of the massive dilution. Further, macroeconomic risks beyond Uber's control may impact the company. Inflation is already at historical highs, and it may continue to stay at these levels resulting in an even faster pace of tapering and rising rates by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, because Uber is still not profitable, raising rates will most likely affect the company negatively.</p><p><blockquote>投资优步会带来重大风险，包括稀释风险和宏观经济风险。Uber过去几年一直极度无利可图，导致大规模稀释。Uber的流通股在2018年上涨了12.35%，2019年上涨了160.62%，2020年上涨了40.42%，2021年迄今上涨了8.2%。因此，为了维持公司的运营，Uber不断稀释现有股东。因此，实现盈利的任何障碍都可能导致未来更多的稀释。此外，Uber如今财务状况良好的原因是大规模稀释。此外，优步无法控制的宏观经济风险可能会影响该公司。通胀已经处于历史高位，可能会继续保持在这些水平，导致美联储更快地缩减和加息。因此，由于Uber仍未盈利，提高费率很可能会对公司产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> No one knows for sure if Uber will blossom into a beautiful swan from an ugly duckling, but today, I am starting to be cautiously bullish on Uber. Pandemic ultimately benefited the company's overall operations leading to a boom in the delivery business, which aided in Uber reaching unit economics. Further, the delivery business is expected to expand as consumers adapt to a more convenient way of life. For the mobility business, there were significant damages; however, as Uber has shown, the mobility business is strongly recovering to 2019 levels as the economies reopen. Therefore, as Uber attempts to turn around its business, I believe investors should worth consider investing in Uber. After all, Uber may blossom into a beautiful swan.</p><p><blockquote>没有人确切知道Uber是否会从丑小鸭绽放成美丽的天鹅，但今天，我开始谨慎看好Uber。疫情最终使公司的整体运营受益，导致配送业务蓬勃发展，这有助于优步实现单位经济效益。此外，随着消费者适应更便捷的生活方式，快递业务预计将扩大。对于移动业务来说，损失惨重；然而，正如Uber所展示的那样，随着经济重新开放，移动业务正在强劲复苏至2019年的水平。因此，随着Uber试图扭转业务，我相信投资者应该值得考虑投资Uber。毕竟，Uber可能会绽放成一只美丽的天鹅。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber: Ugly Duckling Is Growing Up<blockquote>优步：丑小鸭正在长大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber: Ugly Duckling Is Growing Up<blockquote>优步：丑小鸭正在长大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-17 14:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Uber's delivery business is booming and expanding resulting in the company leveraging economies of scale to reach profitability.</li> <li>Mobility business is fast recovering from the pandemic as the economies reopen.</li> <li>Future lockdowns and covid restrictions that were seen before are not likely.</li> <li>Therefore, Uber may be the ugly duckling waiting to become a swan.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b93f3ad8b1091da22c151e759153e2\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MOZCO Mateusz Szymanski/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>优步的送货业务正在蓬勃发展并不断扩大，导致该公司利用规模经济实现盈利。</li><li>随着经济重新开放，移动业务正在从疫情迅速复苏。</li><li>未来不太可能出现以前看到的封锁和covid限制。</li><li>因此，Uber可能是等待变成天鹅的丑小鸭。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MOZCO Mateusz Szymanski/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction and Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>导言和论文</b></blockquote></p><p> I am starting to believe that Uber's(NYSE:UBER)story is unfolding like the story of the ugly duckling. In the early days of going public, Uber suffered ignorance and unfavorable views from the investing community just like the ugly duckling, but today, I believe Uber is just around the corner from blossoming into a beautiful and successful swan.</p><p><blockquote>我开始相信优步（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UBER）的故事正在像丑小鸭的故事一样展开。在上市初期，Uber就像丑小鸭一样遭受着投资界的无知和不利看法，但今天，我相信Uber离绽放成一只美丽而成功的天鹅指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> Uber's business is turning around as the underlying trend forms in favor of the company. From the depths of the pandemic to the pace of recovery seen today, the world changed for good, at least for Uber. One of those changes is food delivery. During the pandemic, consumers could not comfortably leave their houses and dine out resulting in those consumers turning to food delivery permanently growing a business that has been the primary reason for Uber's continuous losses. Thus, as the trend of food delivery continues to grow from the pandemic, Uber's business through economies of scale has been enjoying the favorable trend, and I believe that the convenience of food delivery will allow permanent penetration of delivery in our daily lives. Further, as mobility recovers as well from the pandemic in all aspects, Uber is likely to report a profitable 2022 fiscal year. Although there are risks of dilution,Covid and macroeconomic risks, I believe now is finally the time to consider investing in the ugly duckling.</p><p><blockquote>随着潜在趋势对该公司有利，优步的业务正在好转。从疫情的深渊到今天的复苏步伐，世界变得更好了，至少对优步来说是这样。其中一个变化是食品配送。在疫情期间，消费者无法舒适地离开家外出就餐，导致这些消费者转向送餐业务，这是优步持续亏损的主要原因。因此，随着外卖趋势从疫情持续增长，优步通过规模经济的业务一直在享受有利趋势，我相信外卖的便利性将使外卖永久渗透到我们的日常生活中。此外，随着出行在各个方面都从疫情中恢复，Uber可能会在2022财年实现盈利。尽管存在稀释风险、新冠疫情和宏观经济风险，但我相信现在终于是考虑投资丑小鸭的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favorable Trend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有利趋势</b></blockquote></p><p> Pandemic brought devastation across nearly all industries and aspects of our lives; however, for Uber, I believe pandemic turned out to be beneficial for the company. Uber's major businesses are delivery and mobility. Before the pandemic, while the mobility business was starting to report positive adjusted EBTIDA, the delivery business continued to struggle. The market was relatively smaller and competitive leading to Uber spending immense amounts of capital on sales, marketing, and development. Even worse, the economies of scale were not seen at the time. However, times have changed for the delivery business. First, the food delivery industry exploded in popularity. For example, Uber's delivery business grew almost 3 fold from 2019Q4. This massive growth in the industry allowed Uber to leverage economies of scale leading to improving bottom lines. Further, the adaption of the delivery culture in the daily lives of the people allowed Uber to expand its business to more than delivering foods. The company is currently delivering groceries, Christmas trees, and even alcoholic beverages. Therefore, as the market continues to mature, Uber can leverage economies of scale to turn around its loss-leading delivery business into a profitable giant.</p><p><blockquote>疫情给我们生活的几乎所有行业和方方面面带来了破坏；然而，对于优步来说，我相信疫情对公司有利。Uber的主要业务是送货和移动出行。在大流行之前，虽然移动业务开始报告积极的调整后EBTIDA，但交付业务继续陷入困境。市场相对较小且竞争激烈，导致优步在销售、营销和开发上花费了大量资金。更糟糕的是，当时没有看到规模经济。然而，对于快递业务来说，时代已经变了。一是外卖行业爆火。例如，Uber的配送业务较2019年第四季度增长了近3倍。该行业的巨大增长使Uber能够利用规模经济来提高利润。此外，外卖文化在人们日常生活中的适应使优步能够将其业务扩展到外卖之外。该公司目前正在运送食品杂货、圣诞树，甚至酒精饮料。因此，随着市场的不断成熟，Uber可以利用规模经济将亏损领先的外卖业务扭亏为盈。</blockquote></p><p> Some critics may argue that delivery was only successful because consumers were not comfortable going outside during the pandemic. I would like to argue otherwise. A pandemic may have been the driving factor behind the adaption of the delivery service by the public; however, convenience was what is and will sustain this business model. Through innovation seen in the past decades, we have seen how much consumers care about convenience through the rise of Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms(NASDAQ:FB), and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL). Why socialize digitally when you can meet others physically? Why order packages online and wait days when you can simply go buy that product today? Why use smartphones when you already had mobile phones? Consumers will never go back to the more inconvenient way of life.</p><p><blockquote>一些批评者可能会认为，送货之所以成功，只是因为消费者在疫情期间不愿意外出。我想提出不同的观点。疫情可能是公众适应送货服务背后的驱动因素；然而，便利性是维持这种商业模式的动力。通过过去几十年的创新，我们看到了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）、Meta Platforms（纳斯达克：FB）和苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）的崛起，消费者是多么关心便利性。当你可以与他人见面时，为什么还要进行数字社交呢？当你今天就可以去购买产品的时候，为什么要在网上订购套餐，然后等上几天呢？既然已经有了手机，为什么还要用智能手机呢？消费者永远不会回到更不方便的生活方式。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike the delivery business, the mobility business was damaged by the pandemic, but it is expected that the mobility business will return to 2019 levels as the impact of the pandemic wanes. As the picture below shows, the mobility business in the world's biggest cities has almost returned to normalcy after the lockdown showing that the demand for ride-hailing services is still present. Further, as pandemic subsides and offices re-open, the mobility business will continue to grow.</p><p><blockquote>与配送业务不同，移动出行业务受到了疫情的损害，但预计随着疫情影响的减弱，移动出行业务将恢复到2019年的水平。如下图所示，全球最大城市的移动业务在封锁后几乎恢复正常，这表明对网约车服务的需求仍然存在。此外，随着疫情的消退和办公室的重新开放，移动业务将继续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a5ee8af7dd1261e2686a20efa4d3b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Covid Fears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新冠恐惧</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Although pandemic was the leading cause of the delivery business success, a worsening pandemic will most likely damage my bullish thesis. A mobility business, a business segment set to lead profitability, will be heavily damaged; however, contrary to the mainstream media's opinion, I believe this scenario is unlikely to unfold due to vaccines and public sentiments.</p><p><blockquote>尽管疫情是快递业务成功的主要原因，但不断恶化的疫情很可能会损害我的看涨论点。移动业务是一个将引领盈利能力的业务部门，将受到严重损害；然而，与主流媒体的观点相反，我认为由于疫苗和公众情绪，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer(NYSE:PFE) on December 8th confirmed that theirCovid vaccines are still effective against the Omicron variant. The company said that a preliminary study \"demonstrates that three doses [of the vaccines] neutralize the Omicron variant while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers.\" The company's claims are backed by Omicron orCovid outbreak unfolding in many European nations including Italy, France, the UK, and more.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PFE）12月8日证实，他们的新冠疫苗对奥密克戎变种仍然有效。该公司表示，一项初步研究“表明，三剂[疫苗]可以中和奥密克戎变种，而两剂则显示中和滴度显着降低。”该公司的说法得到了奥密克戎或新冠疫情在许多欧洲国家爆发的支持，包括义大利、法、英等。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe98b474db7223afa7617f0cb8545e42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8849809f79a66a367009de9b31677d63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/415cdc534da7dc5a6d6f9e754adf099e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Using France as an example, the first picture above shows theCovid cases rising exponentially while the second picture shows the death rate is range-bound. The vaccination rate, shown in the third picture, backs up Pfizer's claim regarding the efficacy of its vaccines because while infections are rising, fatalities are limited due to the vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>以法国为例，上面的第一张图显示了Covid病例呈指数级上升，而第二张图显示了死亡率在一定范围内。第三张图所示的疫苗接种率支持了辉瑞关于其疫苗功效的说法，因为虽然感染率在上升，但疫苗导致的死亡人数有限。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the public's resent for more lockdowns and extreme restrictions are most likely to make Uber's mobility segment of the business more resilient than previous outbreaks.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公众对更多封锁和极端限制的不满很可能会使优步的移动业务部门比之前的疫情爆发更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Uber's balance sheet along with valuation is great. According to Uber's quarterly report, Uber reported revenue growth of 72% year-over-year to $4.8 billion dollars with $8 million positive adjusted EBITDA. After years of losses, the delivery businesses reached a near breakeven level to -0.1% adjusted EBITDA margin. Further, the company's mobility or mobility business had a 5.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, which was on par with the pre-pandemic margins. Overall, the continual improvement of the company's business is resulting in decreasing losses and a stronger balance sheet. Uber has about $5.6 billion in cash and about $33 billion in total assets while the total liabilities were about $20 billion bringing total liability to asset ratio (L/A) to about 60%. All in all, I believe Uber's balance sheet is strong enough to sustain the company's operation given no major changes.</p><p><blockquote>Uber的资产负债表和估值都很棒。根据Uber的季度报告，Uber报告收入同比增长72%，达到48亿美元，调整后EBITDA为800万美元。经过多年的亏损后，快递业务达到了接近盈亏平衡的水平，调整后EBITDA利润率为-0.1%。此外，该公司的移动或移动业务调整后EBITDA利润率为5.5%，与大流行前的利润率持平。总体而言，公司业务的持续改善导致亏损减少和资产负债表更加强劲。优步拥有约56亿美元现金和约330亿美元总资产，而总负债约为200亿美元，总资产负债率(L/A)约为60%。总而言之，我相信在没有重大变化的情况下，Uber的资产负债表足以维持公司的运营。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation of Uber is slightly high. Uber, still unprofitable, trades at about 4.7 times price to sales ratio and about 3 times the forward price to sales ratio. These numbers may seem minimal in comparison with other companies, but because the margin expansion for Uber is questionable, I would say that Uber's valuation today is slightly high. However, as the business turns to reach profitability in the near future, I think the slightly high valuation seen in Uber may be manageable for some investors.</p><p><blockquote>Uber的估值略高。仍未盈利的Uber的市销率约为4.7倍，远期市销率约为3倍。与其他公司相比，这些数字似乎很小，但由于Uber的利润率扩张值得怀疑，我想说Uber目前的估值略高。然而，随着该业务在不久的将来实现盈利，我认为优步略高的估值对于一些投资者来说可能是可以控制的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Investing in Uber comes with significant risks including dilution risks and macroeconomic risks. Uber has been extremely unprofitable for the past years resulting in massive dilution.Uber's outstanding shares increased 12.35% in 2018, 160.62% in 2019, 40.42% in 2020, and 8.2% to date in 2021. As such, to maintain the company's operations, Uber continuously diluted its existing shareholders. Thus, any hurdles to reaching profitability may result in even more dilution in the future. Also, the reason for Uber's financial health today is because of the massive dilution. Further, macroeconomic risks beyond Uber's control may impact the company. Inflation is already at historical highs, and it may continue to stay at these levels resulting in an even faster pace of tapering and rising rates by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, because Uber is still not profitable, raising rates will most likely affect the company negatively.</p><p><blockquote>投资优步会带来重大风险，包括稀释风险和宏观经济风险。Uber过去几年一直极度无利可图，导致大规模稀释。Uber的流通股在2018年上涨了12.35%，2019年上涨了160.62%，2020年上涨了40.42%，2021年迄今上涨了8.2%。因此，为了维持公司的运营，Uber不断稀释现有股东。因此，实现盈利的任何障碍都可能导致未来更多的稀释。此外，Uber如今财务状况良好的原因是大规模稀释。此外，优步无法控制的宏观经济风险可能会影响该公司。通胀已经处于历史高位，可能会继续保持在这些水平，导致美联储更快地缩减和加息。因此，由于Uber仍未盈利，提高费率很可能会对公司产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> No one knows for sure if Uber will blossom into a beautiful swan from an ugly duckling, but today, I am starting to be cautiously bullish on Uber. Pandemic ultimately benefited the company's overall operations leading to a boom in the delivery business, which aided in Uber reaching unit economics. Further, the delivery business is expected to expand as consumers adapt to a more convenient way of life. For the mobility business, there were significant damages; however, as Uber has shown, the mobility business is strongly recovering to 2019 levels as the economies reopen. Therefore, as Uber attempts to turn around its business, I believe investors should worth consider investing in Uber. After all, Uber may blossom into a beautiful swan.</p><p><blockquote>没有人确切知道Uber是否会从丑小鸭绽放成美丽的天鹅，但今天，我开始谨慎看好Uber。疫情最终使公司的整体运营受益，导致配送业务蓬勃发展，这有助于优步实现单位经济效益。此外，随着消费者适应更便捷的生活方式，快递业务预计将扩大。对于移动业务来说，损失惨重；然而，正如Uber所展示的那样，随着经济重新开放，移动业务正在强劲复苏至2019年的水平。因此，随着Uber试图扭转业务，我相信投资者应该值得考虑投资Uber。毕竟，Uber可能会绽放成一只美丽的天鹅。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475598-uber-ugly-duckling-is-growing-up\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UBER":"优步"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475598-uber-ugly-duckling-is-growing-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108936663","content_text":"Summary\n\nUber's delivery business is booming and expanding resulting in the company leveraging economies of scale to reach profitability.\nMobility business is fast recovering from the pandemic as the economies reopen.\nFuture lockdowns and covid restrictions that were seen before are not likely.\nTherefore, Uber may be the ugly duckling waiting to become a swan.\n\nMOZCO Mateusz Szymanski/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction and Thesis\nI am starting to believe that Uber's(NYSE:UBER)story is unfolding like the story of the ugly duckling. In the early days of going public, Uber suffered ignorance and unfavorable views from the investing community just like the ugly duckling, but today, I believe Uber is just around the corner from blossoming into a beautiful and successful swan.\nUber's business is turning around as the underlying trend forms in favor of the company. From the depths of the pandemic to the pace of recovery seen today, the world changed for good, at least for Uber. One of those changes is food delivery. During the pandemic, consumers could not comfortably leave their houses and dine out resulting in those consumers turning to food delivery permanently growing a business that has been the primary reason for Uber's continuous losses. Thus, as the trend of food delivery continues to grow from the pandemic, Uber's business through economies of scale has been enjoying the favorable trend, and I believe that the convenience of food delivery will allow permanent penetration of delivery in our daily lives. Further, as mobility recovers as well from the pandemic in all aspects, Uber is likely to report a profitable 2022 fiscal year. Although there are risks of dilution,Covid and macroeconomic risks, I believe now is finally the time to consider investing in the ugly duckling.\nFavorable Trend\nPandemic brought devastation across nearly all industries and aspects of our lives; however, for Uber, I believe pandemic turned out to be beneficial for the company. Uber's major businesses are delivery and mobility. Before the pandemic, while the mobility business was starting to report positive adjusted EBTIDA, the delivery business continued to struggle. The market was relatively smaller and competitive leading to Uber spending immense amounts of capital on sales, marketing, and development. Even worse, the economies of scale were not seen at the time. However, times have changed for the delivery business. First, the food delivery industry exploded in popularity. For example, Uber's delivery business grew almost 3 fold from 2019Q4. This massive growth in the industry allowed Uber to leverage economies of scale leading to improving bottom lines. Further, the adaption of the delivery culture in the daily lives of the people allowed Uber to expand its business to more than delivering foods. The company is currently delivering groceries, Christmas trees, and even alcoholic beverages. Therefore, as the market continues to mature, Uber can leverage economies of scale to turn around its loss-leading delivery business into a profitable giant.\nSome critics may argue that delivery was only successful because consumers were not comfortable going outside during the pandemic. I would like to argue otherwise. A pandemic may have been the driving factor behind the adaption of the delivery service by the public; however, convenience was what is and will sustain this business model. Through innovation seen in the past decades, we have seen how much consumers care about convenience through the rise of Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms(NASDAQ:FB), and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL). Why socialize digitally when you can meet others physically? Why order packages online and wait days when you can simply go buy that product today? Why use smartphones when you already had mobile phones? Consumers will never go back to the more inconvenient way of life.\nUnlike the delivery business, the mobility business was damaged by the pandemic, but it is expected that the mobility business will return to 2019 levels as the impact of the pandemic wanes. As the picture below shows, the mobility business in the world's biggest cities has almost returned to normalcy after the lockdown showing that the demand for ride-hailing services is still present. Further, as pandemic subsides and offices re-open, the mobility business will continue to grow.\n\nCovid Fears\nAlthough pandemic was the leading cause of the delivery business success, a worsening pandemic will most likely damage my bullish thesis. A mobility business, a business segment set to lead profitability, will be heavily damaged; however, contrary to the mainstream media's opinion, I believe this scenario is unlikely to unfold due to vaccines and public sentiments.\nPfizer(NYSE:PFE) on December 8th confirmed that theirCovid vaccines are still effective against the Omicron variant. The company said that a preliminary study \"demonstrates that three doses [of the vaccines] neutralize the Omicron variant while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers.\" The company's claims are backed by Omicron orCovid outbreak unfolding in many European nations including Italy, France, the UK, and more.\n\nUsing France as an example, the first picture above shows theCovid cases rising exponentially while the second picture shows the death rate is range-bound. The vaccination rate, shown in the third picture, backs up Pfizer's claim regarding the efficacy of its vaccines because while infections are rising, fatalities are limited due to the vaccines.\nFurther, the public's resent for more lockdowns and extreme restrictions are most likely to make Uber's mobility segment of the business more resilient than previous outbreaks.\nFinancials and Valuation\nUber's balance sheet along with valuation is great. According to Uber's quarterly report, Uber reported revenue growth of 72% year-over-year to $4.8 billion dollars with $8 million positive adjusted EBITDA. After years of losses, the delivery businesses reached a near breakeven level to -0.1% adjusted EBITDA margin. Further, the company's mobility or mobility business had a 5.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, which was on par with the pre-pandemic margins. Overall, the continual improvement of the company's business is resulting in decreasing losses and a stronger balance sheet. Uber has about $5.6 billion in cash and about $33 billion in total assets while the total liabilities were about $20 billion bringing total liability to asset ratio (L/A) to about 60%. All in all, I believe Uber's balance sheet is strong enough to sustain the company's operation given no major changes.\nThe valuation of Uber is slightly high. Uber, still unprofitable, trades at about 4.7 times price to sales ratio and about 3 times the forward price to sales ratio. These numbers may seem minimal in comparison with other companies, but because the margin expansion for Uber is questionable, I would say that Uber's valuation today is slightly high. However, as the business turns to reach profitability in the near future, I think the slightly high valuation seen in Uber may be manageable for some investors.\nRisks\nInvesting in Uber comes with significant risks including dilution risks and macroeconomic risks. Uber has been extremely unprofitable for the past years resulting in massive dilution.Uber's outstanding shares increased 12.35% in 2018, 160.62% in 2019, 40.42% in 2020, and 8.2% to date in 2021. As such, to maintain the company's operations, Uber continuously diluted its existing shareholders. Thus, any hurdles to reaching profitability may result in even more dilution in the future. Also, the reason for Uber's financial health today is because of the massive dilution. Further, macroeconomic risks beyond Uber's control may impact the company. Inflation is already at historical highs, and it may continue to stay at these levels resulting in an even faster pace of tapering and rising rates by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, because Uber is still not profitable, raising rates will most likely affect the company negatively.\nSummary\nNo one knows for sure if Uber will blossom into a beautiful swan from an ugly duckling, but today, I am starting to be cautiously bullish on Uber. Pandemic ultimately benefited the company's overall operations leading to a boom in the delivery business, which aided in Uber reaching unit economics. Further, the delivery business is expected to expand as consumers adapt to a more convenient way of life. For the mobility business, there were significant damages; however, as Uber has shown, the mobility business is strongly recovering to 2019 levels as the economies reopen. Therefore, as Uber attempts to turn around its business, I believe investors should worth consider investing in Uber. After all, Uber may blossom into a beautiful swan.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBER":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":26,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/699066029"}
精彩评论