Greed foot in the door_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-07-26

Greed foot in the door

Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":800611028,"tweetId":"800611028","gmtCreate":1627297137464,"gmtModify":1633766418449,"author":{"id":3573708491598785,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorId":3573708491598785,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Greed foot in the door</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Greed foot in the door</body></html>","text":"Greed foot in the door","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800611028","repostId":1175108896,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175108896","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627290545,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175108896?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175108896","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li> <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li> <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li> <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉表示正在转向类似Adobe的订阅商业模式，事实证明这种模式可以大幅提高收入。</li><li>通过这种方式，特斯拉再次成为先行者，并将在未来几十年为该行业设定标准。</li><li>从技术上讲，最近的走势是一种相当正常的模式，往往会带来更多收益。</li><li>我建议特斯拉多头在盈利前在其头寸中添加信贷策略，以获得保护和额外收入。</li></ul>jetcityimage/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.<blockquote>我上次写关于特斯拉(TSLA)的文章是在2019年，当时我建议在回调时买入。表示回调是回调至47美元，特斯拉可能永远不会再触及这个数字。如今，TSLA的股价超过了1,000美元，而且理由很充分。</blockquote> And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a&nbsp;full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.<blockquote>如今，特斯拉还有另一个理由来证明其高昂的价格是合理的。该公司推出了全自动驾驶（FSD）订阅。这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。</blockquote> Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model<blockquote>订阅：终极盈利模式</blockquote> Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.<blockquote>软件——以及更广泛的技术——已经转向基于订阅的商业模式，事实证明，就盈利能力而言，这种模式远远优于旧的经营方式（直接销售产品）。曾经我们为Adobe(ADBE)Photoshop等产品支付一次性费用，现在几乎可以肯定，我们在产品的整个生命周期内支付的费用远远超过一次性费用。对于技术落后的汽车行业来说，理解订阅商业模式比传统模式可以从客户那里吸走更多的钱只是时间问题，而且对于通常被视为更多的特斯拉来说，我并不感到惊讶一家科技公司而不是汽车公司，将成为第一家采用这一策略的公司。</blockquote> I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:<blockquote>我相信皮埃尔·费拉古明白这一点。来自SA上面链接的有关FSD订阅的新闻：</blockquote> One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.” Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):<blockquote>New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu是特斯拉FSD上涨的最大多头之一。他认为，到2030年，特斯拉将从销售一辆汽车中获得约7,000美元的利润，从销售同一辆车的FSD订阅中获得近23,000美元的利润。如果Ferragu是正确的，那么整个行业有望转向自主订阅服务模式。”Ferragu的预测符合我对基于订阅的商业模式的想法。特斯拉的收入和订阅模式很容易变得像Adobe一样，该公司的绝大多数收入都来自订阅。（有关这种商业模式如何运作的更多信息，请参阅我最近关于Adobe的文章。）通过Adobe的结果可以轻松看出这种商业模式对收入的潜在影响（尽管许多其他公司也看到了同样的结果）：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Of course, the stock sees results too:<blockquote>当然，该股也看到了结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.<blockquote>重要的是，费拉古指出，整个行业将转向订阅商业模式，我同意这一观点。有些人可能会说，汽车行业不是软件行业，当涉及到汽车时，最好以合理的价格提供高质量的产品。但历史将证明这是不正确的：看看通用汽车(GM)如何将福特(F)这家以制造经久耐用、优质汽车为基础的公司推入计划淘汰范式（每年为每个产品进行设计升级）该行业已陷入的产品线）。</blockquote> In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.<blockquote>未来，特斯拉的大宗收入应该不是来自汽车销售，而是来自订阅。这是大多数行业向前发展的新经济，特斯拉将成为汽车行业这种商业模式的先驱。我们已经看到这如何有利于软件和电影（迪士尼和Netflix等流媒体服务）的盈利能力，汽车也应该如此。</blockquote> Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:<blockquote>考虑一下：特斯拉在2020年售出了约50万辆汽车。随着柏林、上海和德克萨斯工厂今年的投产，特斯拉将在2021年额外生产30万辆汽车。按照这个速度，到2022年底，特斯拉将超过每年100万大关（可能在150万左右）。假设每年生产的汽车中只有一半最终购买了FSD订阅，那么，就像Adobe一样，订阅收入很快就会接近与传统模式的收入相等-请注意，该模式非常保守，因为它忽略了所有2020年之前生产的汽车：</blockquote> Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year<blockquote>每年FSD订阅收入</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.<blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>很难判断订阅收入何时会超过车辆销售收入，因为该模型中存在许多未知数，例如订阅FSD的特斯拉驾驶员的百分比以及2023年Model 3在渗透“平价”汽车市场方面的成功。然而，订阅收入的增长率是几何到指数级的，在未来几年内将达到两位数的百分比，并且到本十年末很可能成为特斯拉收入来源的大部分。</blockquote> Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.<blockquote>特斯拉在这方面迈出了正确的一步，我们很可能会看到该公司克服困扰汽车行业数十年的障碍。如果是这样的话，我们可以看到针对汽车行业的政治政策案例中的收益差异较低。例如，FSD订阅的收入可能不会受到新关税和环境政策的影响，这两个监管来源通常针对汽车本身，而不是所使用的软件。这仍然是猜测，但到目前为止，我们没有理由怀疑政府会在其碳减排法规或税收政策中专门针对FSD订阅。</blockquote> Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.<blockquote>一旦成功推出，FSD订阅很可能成为该公司可靠的收入来源。随着订阅收入增长到超过销售收入，投资者将越来越多地将特斯拉视为一项安全的投资。随着订阅收入超过传统销售收入，TSLA的IV应该会下降，而IV的下降往往与股价上涨相关。</blockquote> From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.<blockquote>无论从基本面还是股票角度来看，FSD认购公告都是高度利多的。我认为这是特斯拉多头在任何重大回调时买入的理由。</blockquote> Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.<blockquote>然而，我们必须承认，与所有新的商业模式一样，投资者也有固有的风险。虽然订阅模式本身利润丰厚，但特斯拉司机是否会接受FSD订阅仍然是成功采用该模式的关键因素。虽然我相信——由于其业绩记录——特斯拉最终会解决其自动驾驶功能中的技术问题，但我可以看到FSD可能失败的两大原因。</blockquote> First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.<blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能无法将FSD提升到承诺的5级，这可能会导致订户提起集体诉讼。FSD的技术方面超出了我的专业知识，尽管我的人工智能背景确实告诉我，达到5级是一项巨大的努力。马斯克过去成功地做出了巨大的努力，但也许那些比我拥有更多人工智能知识的人有充分的理由相信，这是马斯克将死在的山上。</blockquote> Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.<blockquote>其次，价格可能太高。每月200美元，您可以租赁一辆全新的本田汽车，或者您可以进入特斯拉正在进行的FSD作为beta测试人员。随着我们进入2023年，这对特斯拉来说应该是重要的一年，其25,000美元的Model 2使该公司能够接触到新的客户群，我们需要重新考虑每月200美元的订阅是否会吸引特斯拉的普通用户群。从长远来看，定价过高的订阅模式很容易得到解决，因此不应被视为牛市论点的巨大风险，但过高的价格可能会阻止特斯拉开创订阅即订阅所需的初始市场渗透。汽车行业的模型实施。</blockquote> Technical Bullishness<blockquote>技术看涨</blockquote> From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:<blockquote>从技术角度来看，特斯拉看起来也很看涨。尽管与过去几年相比，特斯拉经常被认为定价过高，但特斯拉并没有做出与该股不同的走势。最近的走势模式实际上看起来很像2020年初，就在大幅反弹之前：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)<blockquote>（来源：Damon Verial；数据来自Tiingo）</blockquote> Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:<blockquote>一旦你控制了交易日，走势看起来相对保守。它是关于给定季度的中值变动：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)<blockquote>（来源：Damon Verial；数据来自Tiingo）</blockquote> If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:<blockquote>如果你将其外推到200个交易日，你会发现TSLA往往会以相当平均的波动性再上涨10%。2020年的运动只是规模上的一个异常值；这种模式本身与特斯拉通常的年度走势没有太大区别：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)<blockquote>（来源：Damon Verial；数据来自Tiingo）</blockquote> With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.<blockquote>随着特斯拉即将盈利，一份令人印象深刻的盈利报告可能会给我们带来类似的上涨趋势。当然，玩TSLA而不是收益是相当危险的，这就是为什么我们在我的收益交易组（暴露收益）中通常不会玩TSLA而不是收益。因此，我建议那些对TSLA感兴趣的人在FSD订阅消息的支持下买入，因为这是看涨的基本面催化剂。</blockquote> Options Strategy<blockquote>期权策略</blockquote> If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:<blockquote>然而，如果你在玩期权，你可能希望等到盈利之后，这样你就不会面临波动性挤压（期权IV迅速下跌，从而降低多头期权的价值，因为多头期权也是多头织女星）。不过，如果您想采取期权策略来对冲盈利风险，以下是我的建议。我假设您持有100股TSLA股票，使其成为具有额外多头盈利能力的对冲：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li> <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li> </ol> Net credit: $7000<blockquote><ol><li>7月30日卖出1x$700看跌期权</li><li>7月30日买入2倍650美元看跌期权</li></ol>净信贷：7000美元</blockquote> This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.<blockquote>这是一个不稳定的策略，这意味着它允许我们在任何一方获利。主要风险是如果TSLA盘整，在7月剩余时间内交易价格严格在650美元至700美元之间。否则，我们将从任何一方获利，要么通过下行的净多头看跌期权，要么通过股票加上多头策略赚取的信用。</blockquote> Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.<blockquote>即使您确信TSLA不会因盈利而抛售，该策略也会为您带来每100股额外7000美元的利润。你也有下行保护的附加值。请在评论区告诉我你的想法。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.<blockquote>特斯拉增加FSD订阅极大地提高了公司的最大收入潜力。事实证明，订阅服务可以迅速而彻底地改变公司的主要收入来源，并且可以轻松地将特斯拉转变为一家软件公司，而不是一家汽车公司。既然如此，我们需要考虑这样一种可能性：特斯拉进入电动汽车市场只是这家公司的开始，而特斯拉的财务未来在于其FSD服务。如果是这样，我们就低估了这家公司的价值，就像我们用EV镜头来判断一家软件公司一样。</blockquote> I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.<blockquote>由于FSD的前景，我长期高度看好TSLA。从短期来看，我认为技术面暗示着上行。随着7月26日的财报发布，您可能想要对冲TSLA波动性带来的下行风险。但总体而言，即使出现短期回调，以这个价格做多特斯拉也可能是一个有利可图的决定。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-07-26 17:09\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li> <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li> <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li> <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉表示正在转向类似Adobe的订阅商业模式，事实证明这种模式可以大幅提高收入。</li><li>通过这种方式，特斯拉再次成为先行者，并将在未来几十年为该行业设定标准。</li><li>从技术上讲，最近的走势是一种相当正常的模式，往往会带来更多收益。</li><li>我建议特斯拉多头在盈利前在其头寸中添加信贷策略，以获得保护和额外收入。</li></ul>jetcityimage/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.<blockquote>我上次写关于特斯拉(TSLA)的文章是在2019年，当时我建议在回调时买入。表示回调是回调至47美元，特斯拉可能永远不会再触及这个数字。如今，TSLA的股价超过了1,000美元，而且理由很充分。</blockquote> And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a&nbsp;full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.<blockquote>如今，特斯拉还有另一个理由来证明其高昂的价格是合理的。该公司推出了全自动驾驶（FSD）订阅。这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。</blockquote> Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model<blockquote>订阅：终极盈利模式</blockquote> Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.<blockquote>软件——以及更广泛的技术——已经转向基于订阅的商业模式，事实证明，就盈利能力而言，这种模式远远优于旧的经营方式（直接销售产品）。曾经我们为Adobe(ADBE)Photoshop等产品支付一次性费用，现在几乎可以肯定，我们在产品的整个生命周期内支付的费用远远超过一次性费用。对于技术落后的汽车行业来说，理解订阅商业模式比传统模式可以从客户那里吸走更多的钱只是时间问题，而且对于通常被视为更多的特斯拉来说，我并不感到惊讶一家科技公司而不是汽车公司，将成为第一家采用这一策略的公司。</blockquote> I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:<blockquote>我相信皮埃尔·费拉古明白这一点。来自SA上面链接的有关FSD订阅的新闻：</blockquote> One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.” Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):<blockquote>New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu是特斯拉FSD上涨的最大多头之一。他认为，到2030年，特斯拉将从销售一辆汽车中获得约7,000美元的利润，从销售同一辆车的FSD订阅中获得近23,000美元的利润。如果Ferragu是正确的，那么整个行业有望转向自主订阅服务模式。”Ferragu的预测符合我对基于订阅的商业模式的想法。特斯拉的收入和订阅模式很容易变得像Adobe一样，该公司的绝大多数收入都来自订阅。（有关这种商业模式如何运作的更多信息，请参阅我最近关于Adobe的文章。）通过Adobe的结果可以轻松看出这种商业模式对收入的潜在影响（尽管许多其他公司也看到了同样的结果）：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Of course, the stock sees results too:<blockquote>当然，该股也看到了结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.<blockquote>重要的是，费拉古指出，整个行业将转向订阅商业模式，我同意这一观点。有些人可能会说，汽车行业不是软件行业，当涉及到汽车时，最好以合理的价格提供高质量的产品。但历史将证明这是不正确的：看看通用汽车(GM)如何将福特(F)这家以制造经久耐用、优质汽车为基础的公司推入计划淘汰范式（每年为每个产品进行设计升级）该行业已陷入的产品线）。</blockquote> In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.<blockquote>未来，特斯拉的大宗收入应该不是来自汽车销售，而是来自订阅。这是大多数行业向前发展的新经济，特斯拉将成为汽车行业这种商业模式的先驱。我们已经看到这如何有利于软件和电影（迪士尼和Netflix等流媒体服务）的盈利能力，汽车也应该如此。</blockquote> Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:<blockquote>考虑一下：特斯拉在2020年售出了约50万辆汽车。随着柏林、上海和德克萨斯工厂今年的投产，特斯拉将在2021年额外生产30万辆汽车。按照这个速度，到2022年底，特斯拉将超过每年100万大关（可能在150万左右）。假设每年生产的汽车中只有一半最终购买了FSD订阅，那么，就像Adobe一样，订阅收入很快就会接近与传统模式的收入相等-请注意，该模式非常保守，因为它忽略了所有2020年之前生产的汽车：</blockquote> Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year<blockquote>每年FSD订阅收入</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.<blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>很难判断订阅收入何时会超过车辆销售收入，因为该模型中存在许多未知数，例如订阅FSD的特斯拉驾驶员的百分比以及2023年Model 3在渗透“平价”汽车市场方面的成功。然而，订阅收入的增长率是几何到指数级的，在未来几年内将达到两位数的百分比，并且到本十年末很可能成为特斯拉收入来源的大部分。</blockquote> Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.<blockquote>特斯拉在这方面迈出了正确的一步，我们很可能会看到该公司克服困扰汽车行业数十年的障碍。如果是这样的话，我们可以看到针对汽车行业的政治政策案例中的收益差异较低。例如，FSD订阅的收入可能不会受到新关税和环境政策的影响，这两个监管来源通常针对汽车本身，而不是所使用的软件。这仍然是猜测，但到目前为止，我们没有理由怀疑政府会在其碳减排法规或税收政策中专门针对FSD订阅。</blockquote> Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.<blockquote>一旦成功推出，FSD订阅很可能成为该公司可靠的收入来源。随着订阅收入增长到超过销售收入，投资者将越来越多地将特斯拉视为一项安全的投资。随着订阅收入超过传统销售收入，TSLA的IV应该会下降，而IV的下降往往与股价上涨相关。</blockquote> From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.<blockquote>无论从基本面还是股票角度来看，FSD认购公告都是高度利多的。我认为这是特斯拉多头在任何重大回调时买入的理由。</blockquote> Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.<blockquote>然而，我们必须承认，与所有新的商业模式一样，投资者也有固有的风险。虽然订阅模式本身利润丰厚，但特斯拉司机是否会接受FSD订阅仍然是成功采用该模式的关键因素。虽然我相信——由于其业绩记录——特斯拉最终会解决其自动驾驶功能中的技术问题，但我可以看到FSD可能失败的两大原因。</blockquote> First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.<blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能无法将FSD提升到承诺的5级，这可能会导致订户提起集体诉讼。FSD的技术方面超出了我的专业知识，尽管我的人工智能背景确实告诉我，达到5级是一项巨大的努力。马斯克过去成功地做出了巨大的努力，但也许那些比我拥有更多人工智能知识的人有充分的理由相信，这是马斯克将死在的山上。</blockquote> Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.<blockquote>其次，价格可能太高。每月200美元，您可以租赁一辆全新的本田汽车，或者您可以进入特斯拉正在进行的FSD作为beta测试人员。随着我们进入2023年，这对特斯拉来说应该是重要的一年，其25,000美元的Model 2使该公司能够接触到新的客户群，我们需要重新考虑每月200美元的订阅是否会吸引特斯拉的普通用户群。从长远来看，定价过高的订阅模式很容易得到解决，因此不应被视为牛市论点的巨大风险，但过高的价格可能会阻止特斯拉开创订阅即订阅所需的初始市场渗透。汽车行业的模型实施。</blockquote> Technical Bullishness<blockquote>技术看涨</blockquote> From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:<blockquote>从技术角度来看，特斯拉看起来也很看涨。尽管与过去几年相比，特斯拉经常被认为定价过高，但特斯拉并没有做出与该股不同的走势。最近的走势模式实际上看起来很像2020年初，就在大幅反弹之前：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)<blockquote>（来源：Damon Verial；数据来自Tiingo）</blockquote> Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:<blockquote>一旦你控制了交易日，走势看起来相对保守。它是关于给定季度的中值变动：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)<blockquote>（来源：Damon Verial；数据来自Tiingo）</blockquote> If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:<blockquote>如果你将其外推到200个交易日，你会发现TSLA往往会以相当平均的波动性再上涨10%。2020年的运动只是规模上的一个异常值；这种模式本身与特斯拉通常的年度走势没有太大区别：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)<blockquote>（来源：Damon Verial；数据来自Tiingo）</blockquote> With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.<blockquote>随着特斯拉即将盈利，一份令人印象深刻的盈利报告可能会给我们带来类似的上涨趋势。当然，玩TSLA而不是收益是相当危险的，这就是为什么我们在我的收益交易组（暴露收益）中通常不会玩TSLA而不是收益。因此，我建议那些对TSLA感兴趣的人在FSD订阅消息的支持下买入，因为这是看涨的基本面催化剂。</blockquote> Options Strategy<blockquote>期权策略</blockquote> If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:<blockquote>然而，如果你在玩期权，你可能希望等到盈利之后，这样你就不会面临波动性挤压（期权IV迅速下跌，从而降低多头期权的价值，因为多头期权也是多头织女星）。不过，如果您想采取期权策略来对冲盈利风险，以下是我的建议。我假设您持有100股TSLA股票，使其成为具有额外多头盈利能力的对冲：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li> <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li> </ol> Net credit: $7000<blockquote><ol><li>7月30日卖出1x$700看跌期权</li><li>7月30日买入2倍650美元看跌期权</li></ol>净信贷：7000美元</blockquote> This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.<blockquote>这是一个不稳定的策略，这意味着它允许我们在任何一方获利。主要风险是如果TSLA盘整，在7月剩余时间内交易价格严格在650美元至700美元之间。否则，我们将从任何一方获利，要么通过下行的净多头看跌期权，要么通过股票加上多头策略赚取的信用。</blockquote> Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.<blockquote>即使您确信TSLA不会因盈利而抛售，该策略也会为您带来每100股额外7000美元的利润。你也有下行保护的附加值。请在评论区告诉我你的想法。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.<blockquote>特斯拉增加FSD订阅极大地提高了公司的最大收入潜力。事实证明，订阅服务可以迅速而彻底地改变公司的主要收入来源，并且可以轻松地将特斯拉转变为一家软件公司，而不是一家汽车公司。既然如此，我们需要考虑这样一种可能性：特斯拉进入电动汽车市场只是这家公司的开始，而特斯拉的财务未来在于其FSD服务。如果是这样，我们就低估了这家公司的价值，就像我们用EV镜头来判断一家软件公司一样。</blockquote> I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.<blockquote>由于FSD的前景，我长期高度看好TSLA。从短期来看，我认为技术面暗示着上行。随着7月26日的财报发布，您可能想要对冲TSLA波动性带来的下行风险。但总体而言，即使出现短期回调，以这个价格做多特斯拉也可能是一个有利可图的决定。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175108896","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.\nTechnically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.\nI recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.\nAnd today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.\nSubscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model\nSoftware – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.\nI believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:\n\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n\nFerragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):\n\nOf course, the stock sees results too:\n\nImportantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.\nIn the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.\nConsider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:\nRevenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIt is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.\nTesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.\nOnce successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.\nFrom both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.\nYet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.\nFirst, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.\nSecond, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.\nTechnical Bullishness\nFrom a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nOnce you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nIf you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nWith TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.\nOptions Strategy\nIf you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:\n\nSell 1x Jul 30 $700 put\nBuy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts\n\nNet credit: $7000\nThis is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.\nEven if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.\nConclusion\nTesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.\nI am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":18,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/800611028"}