Lewis1983
2021-07-29
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Fed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减规模的时间表。</blockquote>
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Most of the focus is likely to center on Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what to watch:</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于美国东部时间下午2点发布政策声明。下午 2:30，杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）主席的新闻发布会将成为大部分焦点：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Taper timing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>锥度定时</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials are likely to receive a formal staff briefing around when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them.</p><p><blockquote>官员们可能会收到一份正式的员工简报，内容涉及何时开始削减每月购买的 800 亿美元国债和 400 亿美元抵押贷款证券，以及如何快速减少或缩减这些证券。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed began buying large quantities of the securities in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a near-meltdown in financial markets. With the Fed’s short-term interest rate at zero, the purchases are designed to provide additional stimulus by holding down long-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于 2020 年 3 月开始购买大量证券，当时 Covid-19 大流行引发了金融市场近乎崩溃。由于美联储的短期利率为零，这些购买旨在通过压低长期利率来提供额外的刺激。</blockquote></p><p> Some officials are concerned that a burst of inflation this year from bottlenecks associated with reopening the economy will prove more durable than previously anticipated. These policy makers are eager to start the taper, in part because they and their colleagues have said they aren’t likely to consider raising interest rates from near zero until they are done tapering the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>一些官员担心，今年因经济重新开放相关的瓶颈而爆发的通胀将比之前预期的更持久。这些政策制定者急于开始缩减利率，部分原因是他们和他们的同事们表示，在缩减资产购买规模之前，他们不太可能考虑从接近于零的利率上调利率。</blockquote></p><p> Another camp thinks recent price pressures will subside and could leave the Fed in the same position that it faced for much of the past decade, in which global forces kept inflation below 2% even with historically low interest rates. They are worried that accelerating plans to wind down the asset purchases could raise questions among investors about the Fed’s commitment to achieving its economic goals.</p><p><blockquote>另一个阵营认为，最近的价格压力将会消退，并可能使美联储处于过去十年大部分时间所面临的同样境地，当时全球力量即使利率处于历史低位，也将通胀率保持在 2% 以下。他们担心，加速缩减资产购买计划可能会让投资者对美联储实现经济目标的承诺产生质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Because Mr. Powell has pledged to provide ample notice to financial markets before the Fed starts tapering to avoid catching investors by surprise, the central bank looks unlikely to start the process now or at its next meeting in September. Mr. Powell’s press conference will be heavily scrutinized for clues on how officials judge recent economic progress. In April, he said the Fed was “a long way from” its tapering goals, and he characterized the economy as “still a ways off” from them in June.</p><p><blockquote>由于鲍威尔承诺在美联储开始缩减规模之前向金融市场提供充分通知，以避免让投资者措手不及，因此美联储现在或9月份的下次会议上似乎不太可能启动这一进程。鲍威尔先生的新闻发布会将受到严格审查，以寻找官员们如何判断近期经济进展的线索。今年 4 月，他表示美联储 “距离 ”缩减规模的目标还有很长的路要走，他认为经济在 6 月份离这些目标 “还有很长的路要走”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Purchase pace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>采购速度</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials also must consider the pace of any reductions. Some officials have discussed concluding the purchases around October 2022 so they could lift rates soon thereafter if the recovery is stronger or inflation is higher than now anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>官员们还必须考虑任何削减的步伐。一些官员已讨论在 2022 年 10 月左右结束购买，以便如果经济复苏更强劲或通胀高于目前预期，他们可能会在此后不久加息。</blockquote></p><p> During a prior asset-purchase program that ended in 2014, the Fed shrank its purchases in modest, equal amounts over the course of 10 months. It then waited another 14 months before raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>在 2014 年结束的之前的资产购买计划中，美联储在 10 个月内适度、等量地缩减了购买规模。然后它又等了14个月才加息。</blockquote></p><p> Another tactical question centers on whether to reduce the pace of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities equally. Some officials have raised concerns about rising home prices and are pressing to stop purchases of mortgage bonds sooner.</p><p><blockquote>另一个战术性问题集中在是否同样放慢国债和抵押贷款支持证券的步伐上。一些官员对房价上涨表示担忧，并敦促尽快停止购买抵押贷款债券。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Powell and other officials have poured cold water on those concerns in recent weeks. They have said mortgage buying, by purchasing longer-dated assets, provides a way to more broadly stimulate the economy and isn’t focused squarely on housing markets.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔和其他官员最近几周对这些担忧泼了一盆冷水。他们表示，通过购买期限较长的资产，抵押贷款购买提供了一种更广泛地刺激经济的方式，并不完全关注房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> “If the housing market has you really worried, that’s an argument for just tapering everything sooner and faster,” said William English, a former senior Fed economist who is now a professor at the Yale School of Management.</p><p><blockquote>“前美联储高级经济学家、现任耶鲁大学管理学院教授威廉-英格利希（William English）说：”如果房地产市场真的让你担心，那么这就是一个更快更快地缩减一切规模的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀前景</b></blockquote></p><p> For a third straight month in June,inflation ran hotter than many economists had expected. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index increased 5.4% from a year ago, the highest 12-month rate since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>6月份，通胀连续第三个月高于许多经济学家的预期。劳工部的消费者价格指数比一年前上涨了 5.4%，是自 2008 年 8 月以来的最高 12 个月涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell said two weeks ago that many of the elevated price pressures can still be traced to goods and services affected by supply-chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-driven upheaval. As a result, he said it would be too soon for the Fed to abandon its earlier expectation that prices will return to their 2% target on their own and to raise rates to cool down demand and reduce inflation faster.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔两周前表示，许多价格上涨的压力仍然可以追溯到受供应链瓶颈和其他疫情引发的动荡影响的商品和服务。因此，他表示，美联储现在放弃早些时候的预期，即价格将自行回到2%的目标，并加息以冷却需求并更快地降低通胀，还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But Mr. Powell could face questions over how long the central bank and its 12-member rate-setting committee feels it would take to revisit their projections. Price pressures in some sectors of the economy where inflation had been subdued over the past year, including residential rents, have picked in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔可能会面临美联储及其12名成员组成的利率制定委员会认为需要多长时间才能重新审视其预测的问题。近几个月来，包括住宅租金在内的一些经济领域的价格压力有所加剧，这些领域的通胀在过去一年中得到了抑制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Delta variant</b></p><p><blockquote><b>德尔塔变异毒株</b></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell is also likely to be pressed on how the recent increase in Covid-19 cases among unvaccinated populations could reshape the central bank’s growth forecasts for the rest of the year. While a return to shutdowns and other state-mandated restrictions on activity seem less likely than a year ago, increased hesitancy on the part of consumers to return to normal spending routines could complicate the economic outlook.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔先生还可能面临压力，即最近未接种疫苗人群中 Covid-19 病例的增加会如何重塑央行对今年剩余时间的增长预测。虽然恢复停工和其他国家强制的活动限制的可能性似乎比一年前小，但消费者对恢复正常消费日常越来越犹豫可能会使经济前景复杂化。</blockquote></p><p> Since Fed officials last met in June, government-bond prices have jumped, a sign that investors are less confident about long-term growth prospects and less worried about inflation.</p><p><blockquote>自美联储官员上次于 6 月份开会以来，政府债券价格大幅上涨，这表明投资者对长期增长前景的信心减少，对通胀的担忧也减少了。</blockquote></p><p> Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed sharply earlier in the year, lifted by expectations that vaccinations and fiscal stimulus would spur an economic boom. After hitting a 13-month high of 1.75% at the end of March, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined—to 1.57% on June 16, after the Fed concluded its previous meeting, and to 1.24%, a five-month low, when the Fed’s meeting began on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>当债券价格下跌时，收益率会上升，但今年早些时候，由于疫苗接种和财政刺激将刺激经济繁荣的预期，收益率大幅攀升。10 年期国债收益率在 3 月底触及 1.75% 的 13 个月高点后有所下降--6 月 16 日美联储结束上次会议后降至 1.57%，周二美联储会议开始时降至 1.24%，创下五个月低点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减规模的时间表。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Meeting Will Focus on Tapering Timeline.<blockquote>美联储会议将重点讨论缩减规模的时间表。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-28 21:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases</p><p><blockquote>官员们正在寻求就如何以及何时最终减少资产购买达成共识</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b506b5e7aef3659e57731a13007a3078\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"859\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke at a Senate committee hearing earlier this month, has promised ample notice before reducing purchases of securities.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本月早些时候在参议院委员会听证会上发表讲话，承诺在减少证券购买之前会给予充分的通知。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve officials are set to resume deliberations Wednesday about how and when to begin paring their asset purchases amid an economic rebound clouded by supply-chain bottlenecks and rising Covid-19 cases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员将于周三恢复讨论如何以及何时开始削减资产购买，因为经济反弹受到供应链瓶颈和 Covid-19 病例增加的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank at the end of last year said it would continue to purchase $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities monthly until officials deemed they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of low unemployment and inflation reaching their 2% goal.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行在去年年底表示，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，直到官员们认为他们在实现低失业率和通胀率达到 2% 的目标方面取得了 “实质性的进一步进展”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT. Most of the focus is likely to center on Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what to watch:</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于美国东部时间下午2点发布政策声明。下午 2:30，杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）主席的新闻发布会将成为大部分焦点：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Taper timing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>锥度定时</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials are likely to receive a formal staff briefing around when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them.</p><p><blockquote>官员们可能会收到一份正式的员工简报，内容涉及何时开始削减每月购买的 800 亿美元国债和 400 亿美元抵押贷款证券，以及如何快速减少或缩减这些证券。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed began buying large quantities of the securities in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a near-meltdown in financial markets. With the Fed’s short-term interest rate at zero, the purchases are designed to provide additional stimulus by holding down long-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于 2020 年 3 月开始购买大量证券，当时 Covid-19 大流行引发了金融市场近乎崩溃。由于美联储的短期利率为零，这些购买旨在通过压低长期利率来提供额外的刺激。</blockquote></p><p> Some officials are concerned that a burst of inflation this year from bottlenecks associated with reopening the economy will prove more durable than previously anticipated. These policy makers are eager to start the taper, in part because they and their colleagues have said they aren’t likely to consider raising interest rates from near zero until they are done tapering the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>一些官员担心，今年因经济重新开放相关的瓶颈而爆发的通胀将比之前预期的更持久。这些政策制定者急于开始缩减利率，部分原因是他们和他们的同事们表示，在缩减资产购买规模之前，他们不太可能考虑从接近于零的利率上调利率。</blockquote></p><p> Another camp thinks recent price pressures will subside and could leave the Fed in the same position that it faced for much of the past decade, in which global forces kept inflation below 2% even with historically low interest rates. They are worried that accelerating plans to wind down the asset purchases could raise questions among investors about the Fed’s commitment to achieving its economic goals.</p><p><blockquote>另一个阵营认为，最近的价格压力将会消退，并可能使美联储处于过去十年大部分时间所面临的同样境地，当时全球力量即使利率处于历史低位，也将通胀率保持在 2% 以下。他们担心，加速缩减资产购买计划可能会让投资者对美联储实现经济目标的承诺产生质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Because Mr. Powell has pledged to provide ample notice to financial markets before the Fed starts tapering to avoid catching investors by surprise, the central bank looks unlikely to start the process now or at its next meeting in September. Mr. Powell’s press conference will be heavily scrutinized for clues on how officials judge recent economic progress. In April, he said the Fed was “a long way from” its tapering goals, and he characterized the economy as “still a ways off” from them in June.</p><p><blockquote>由于鲍威尔承诺在美联储开始缩减规模之前向金融市场提供充分通知，以避免让投资者措手不及，因此美联储现在或9月份的下次会议上似乎不太可能启动这一进程。鲍威尔先生的新闻发布会将受到严格审查，以寻找官员们如何判断近期经济进展的线索。今年 4 月，他表示美联储 “距离 ”缩减规模的目标还有很长的路要走，他认为经济在 6 月份离这些目标 “还有很长的路要走”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Purchase pace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>采购速度</b></blockquote></p><p> Officials also must consider the pace of any reductions. Some officials have discussed concluding the purchases around October 2022 so they could lift rates soon thereafter if the recovery is stronger or inflation is higher than now anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>官员们还必须考虑任何削减的步伐。一些官员已讨论在 2022 年 10 月左右结束购买，以便如果经济复苏更强劲或通胀高于目前预期，他们可能会在此后不久加息。</blockquote></p><p> During a prior asset-purchase program that ended in 2014, the Fed shrank its purchases in modest, equal amounts over the course of 10 months. It then waited another 14 months before raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>在 2014 年结束的之前的资产购买计划中，美联储在 10 个月内适度、等量地缩减了购买规模。然后它又等了14个月才加息。</blockquote></p><p> Another tactical question centers on whether to reduce the pace of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities equally. Some officials have raised concerns about rising home prices and are pressing to stop purchases of mortgage bonds sooner.</p><p><blockquote>另一个战术性问题集中在是否同样放慢国债和抵押贷款支持证券的步伐上。一些官员对房价上涨表示担忧，并敦促尽快停止购买抵押贷款债券。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Powell and other officials have poured cold water on those concerns in recent weeks. They have said mortgage buying, by purchasing longer-dated assets, provides a way to more broadly stimulate the economy and isn’t focused squarely on housing markets.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔和其他官员最近几周对这些担忧泼了一盆冷水。他们表示，通过购买期限较长的资产，抵押贷款购买提供了一种更广泛地刺激经济的方式，并不完全关注房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> “If the housing market has you really worried, that’s an argument for just tapering everything sooner and faster,” said William English, a former senior Fed economist who is now a professor at the Yale School of Management.</p><p><blockquote>“前美联储高级经济学家、现任耶鲁大学管理学院教授威廉-英格利希（William English）说：”如果房地产市场真的让你担心，那么这就是一个更快更快地缩减一切规模的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀前景</b></blockquote></p><p> For a third straight month in June,inflation ran hotter than many economists had expected. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index increased 5.4% from a year ago, the highest 12-month rate since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>6月份，通胀连续第三个月高于许多经济学家的预期。劳工部的消费者价格指数比一年前上涨了 5.4%，是自 2008 年 8 月以来的最高 12 个月涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell said two weeks ago that many of the elevated price pressures can still be traced to goods and services affected by supply-chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-driven upheaval. As a result, he said it would be too soon for the Fed to abandon its earlier expectation that prices will return to their 2% target on their own and to raise rates to cool down demand and reduce inflation faster.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔两周前表示，许多价格上涨的压力仍然可以追溯到受供应链瓶颈和其他疫情引发的动荡影响的商品和服务。因此，他表示，美联储现在放弃早些时候的预期，即价格将自行回到2%的目标，并加息以冷却需求并更快地降低通胀，还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But Mr. Powell could face questions over how long the central bank and its 12-member rate-setting committee feels it would take to revisit their projections. Price pressures in some sectors of the economy where inflation had been subdued over the past year, including residential rents, have picked in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔可能会面临美联储及其12名成员组成的利率制定委员会认为需要多长时间才能重新审视其预测的问题。近几个月来，包括住宅租金在内的一些经济领域的价格压力有所加剧，这些领域的通胀在过去一年中得到了抑制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Delta variant</b></p><p><blockquote><b>德尔塔变异毒株</b></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Powell is also likely to be pressed on how the recent increase in Covid-19 cases among unvaccinated populations could reshape the central bank’s growth forecasts for the rest of the year. While a return to shutdowns and other state-mandated restrictions on activity seem less likely than a year ago, increased hesitancy on the part of consumers to return to normal spending routines could complicate the economic outlook.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔先生还可能面临压力，即最近未接种疫苗人群中 Covid-19 病例的增加会如何重塑央行对今年剩余时间的增长预测。虽然恢复停工和其他国家强制的活动限制的可能性似乎比一年前小，但消费者对恢复正常消费日常越来越犹豫可能会使经济前景复杂化。</blockquote></p><p> Since Fed officials last met in June, government-bond prices have jumped, a sign that investors are less confident about long-term growth prospects and less worried about inflation.</p><p><blockquote>自美联储官员上次于 6 月份开会以来，政府债券价格大幅上涨，这表明投资者对长期增长前景的信心减少，对通胀的担忧也减少了。</blockquote></p><p> Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed sharply earlier in the year, lifted by expectations that vaccinations and fiscal stimulus would spur an economic boom. After hitting a 13-month high of 1.75% at the end of March, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined—to 1.57% on June 16, after the Fed concluded its previous meeting, and to 1.24%, a five-month low, when the Fed’s meeting began on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>当债券价格下跌时，收益率会上升，但今年早些时候，由于疫苗接种和财政刺激将刺激经济繁荣的预期，收益率大幅攀升。10 年期国债收益率在 3 月底触及 1.75% 的 13 个月高点后有所下降--6 月 16 日美联储结束上次会议后降至 1.57%，周二美联储会议开始时降至 1.24%，创下五个月低点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-will-focus-on-tapering-timeline-11627464602?mod=hp_lead_pos2\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-will-focus-on-tapering-timeline-11627464602?mod=hp_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102922788","content_text":"Officials are looking to forge consensus on how and when to eventually reduce their asset purchases\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke at a Senate committee hearing earlier this month, has promised ample notice before reducing purchases of securities.\nFederal Reserve officials are set to resume deliberations Wednesday about how and when to begin paring their asset purchases amid an economic rebound clouded by supply-chain bottlenecks and rising Covid-19 cases.\nThe central bank at the end of last year said it would continue to purchase $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities monthly until officials deemed they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of low unemployment and inflation reaching their 2% goal.\nThe Fed will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EDT. Most of the focus is likely to center on Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. Here’s what to watch:\nTaper timing\nOfficials are likely to receive a formal staff briefing around when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them.\nThe Fed began buying large quantities of the securities in March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a near-meltdown in financial markets. With the Fed’s short-term interest rate at zero, the purchases are designed to provide additional stimulus by holding down long-term interest rates.\nSome officials are concerned that a burst of inflation this year from bottlenecks associated with reopening the economy will prove more durable than previously anticipated. These policy makers are eager to start the taper, in part because they and their colleagues have said they aren’t likely to consider raising interest rates from near zero until they are done tapering the asset purchases.\nAnother camp thinks recent price pressures will subside and could leave the Fed in the same position that it faced for much of the past decade, in which global forces kept inflation below 2% even with historically low interest rates. They are worried that accelerating plans to wind down the asset purchases could raise questions among investors about the Fed’s commitment to achieving its economic goals.\nBecause Mr. Powell has pledged to provide ample notice to financial markets before the Fed starts tapering to avoid catching investors by surprise, the central bank looks unlikely to start the process now or at its next meeting in September. Mr. Powell’s press conference will be heavily scrutinized for clues on how officials judge recent economic progress. In April, he said the Fed was “a long way from” its tapering goals, and he characterized the economy as “still a ways off” from them in June.\nPurchase pace\nOfficials also must consider the pace of any reductions. Some officials have discussed concluding the purchases around October 2022 so they could lift rates soon thereafter if the recovery is stronger or inflation is higher than now anticipated.\nDuring a prior asset-purchase program that ended in 2014, the Fed shrank its purchases in modest, equal amounts over the course of 10 months. It then waited another 14 months before raising interest rates.\nAnother tactical question centers on whether to reduce the pace of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities equally. Some officials have raised concerns about rising home prices and are pressing to stop purchases of mortgage bonds sooner.\nBut Mr. Powell and other officials have poured cold water on those concerns in recent weeks. They have said mortgage buying, by purchasing longer-dated assets, provides a way to more broadly stimulate the economy and isn’t focused squarely on housing markets.\n“If the housing market has you really worried, that’s an argument for just tapering everything sooner and faster,” said William English, a former senior Fed economist who is now a professor at the Yale School of Management.\nInflation outlook\nFor a third straight month in June,inflation ran hotter than many economists had expected. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index increased 5.4% from a year ago, the highest 12-month rate since August 2008.\nMr. Powell said two weeks ago that many of the elevated price pressures can still be traced to goods and services affected by supply-chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-driven upheaval. As a result, he said it would be too soon for the Fed to abandon its earlier expectation that prices will return to their 2% target on their own and to raise rates to cool down demand and reduce inflation faster.\nBut Mr. Powell could face questions over how long the central bank and its 12-member rate-setting committee feels it would take to revisit their projections. Price pressures in some sectors of the economy where inflation had been subdued over the past year, including residential rents, have picked in recent months.\nDelta variant\nMr. Powell is also likely to be pressed on how the recent increase in Covid-19 cases among unvaccinated populations could reshape the central bank’s growth forecasts for the rest of the year. While a return to shutdowns and other state-mandated restrictions on activity seem less likely than a year ago, increased hesitancy on the part of consumers to return to normal spending routines could complicate the economic outlook.\nSince Fed officials last met in June, government-bond prices have jumped, a sign that investors are less confident about long-term growth prospects and less worried about inflation.\nYields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed sharply earlier in the year, lifted by expectations that vaccinations and fiscal stimulus would spur an economic boom. After hitting a 13-month high of 1.75% at the end of March, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined—to 1.57% on June 16, after the Fed concluded its previous meeting, and to 1.24%, a five-month low, when the Fed’s meeting began on Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2619,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/801870562"}
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