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2021-07-27

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Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15000就在附近。我听到3万了吗？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":803019421,"tweetId":"803019421","gmtCreate":1627396171263,"gmtModify":1631889103024,"author":{"id":3575889967244102,"idStr":"3575889967244102","authorId":3575889967244102,"authorIdStr":"3575889967244102","name":"Daffn3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17dacfbb92b1435740ae069588894b04","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[Smile]&nbsp; </body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[Smile]&nbsp; </body></html>","text":"[Smile]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803019421","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15000就在附近。我听到3万了吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在 10 年内超过道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去 12 个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023 年 7 月）达到这一难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，这款游戏的灵感来源于纳斯达克复合材料公司的非凡表现，使其达到了 15,000 点大关。就在 2020 年 3 月，该指数还低于 7,000 点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数之所以人为地高，是因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克数量达到 30,000 辆的速度。如果我们推断纳斯达克在过去五年中的回报率，它只会略微增加它所需的时间--达到 3.3 年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超过道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为随着纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数，道琼斯指数本身也会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准指数各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在 9.9 年后--2031 年夏天--超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>问题来了</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在你对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，你应该知道有一个问题： 这些预测在很大程度上取决于你选择推断到未来的时间段。并非所有这些都能带来乐观的预测。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期来推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶端，就在泡沫破灭时，纳斯达克综合指数贬值近 80% 之前。假设纳斯达克自 2000 年 3 月见顶以来的增长率将在 14 年内达到 30,000 点大关，而且永远不会超过道琼斯指数--因为事实上，这些蓝筹股在过去 21 年多的时间里一直优于纳斯达克指数。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正目的应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现比我们有权预期的要好得多。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实的？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到了市场目前的极端高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去推断到未来，而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地看过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，以下是我对纳斯达克未来几年表现的预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自 1793 年以来的整体市场年化回报率：年化高于通货膨胀率 6.1%</li><li>未来十年的预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化减 0.1%（根据达特茅斯大学教授肯-弗伦奇（Ken French）自 1926 年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近纳斯达克综合指数的主导股票）</li></ul>最终结果：未来几年的名义年化回报率为 7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去 12 个月 41.8% 的回报率，或过去五年 23.8% 的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6% 的年化收益率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶峰以来的平均回报率好多少。按年化 7.6% 计算，该指数需要 9.7 年才能达到 30,000 点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数要达到 30,000 点还需要更长的时间。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树木不会长到天空。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15000就在附近。我听到3万了吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15000就在附近。我听到3万了吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在 10 年内超过道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去 12 个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023 年 7 月）达到这一难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，这款游戏的灵感来源于纳斯达克复合材料公司的非凡表现，使其达到了 15,000 点大关。就在 2020 年 3 月，该指数还低于 7,000 点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数之所以人为地高，是因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克数量达到 30,000 辆的速度。如果我们推断纳斯达克在过去五年中的回报率，它只会略微增加它所需的时间--达到 3.3 年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超过道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为随着纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数，道琼斯指数本身也会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准指数各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在 9.9 年后--2031 年夏天--超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>问题来了</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在你对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，你应该知道有一个问题： 这些预测在很大程度上取决于你选择推断到未来的时间段。并非所有这些都能带来乐观的预测。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期来推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶端，就在泡沫破灭时，纳斯达克综合指数贬值近 80% 之前。假设纳斯达克自 2000 年 3 月见顶以来的增长率将在 14 年内达到 30,000 点大关，而且永远不会超过道琼斯指数--因为事实上，这些蓝筹股在过去 21 年多的时间里一直优于纳斯达克指数。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正目的应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现比我们有权预期的要好得多。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实的？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到了市场目前的极端高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去推断到未来，而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地看过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，以下是我对纳斯达克未来几年表现的预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自 1793 年以来的整体市场年化回报率：年化高于通货膨胀率 6.1%</li><li>未来十年的预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化减 0.1%（根据达特茅斯大学教授肯-弗伦奇（Ken French）自 1926 年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近纳斯达克综合指数的主导股票）</li></ul>最终结果：未来几年的名义年化回报率为 7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去 12 个月 41.8% 的回报率，或过去五年 23.8% 的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6% 的年化收益率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶峰以来的平均回报率好多少。按年化 7.6% 计算，该指数需要 9.7 年才能达到 30,000 点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数要达到 30,000 点还需要更长的时间。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树木不会长到天空。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3572,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/803019421"}