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2021-08-03
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Gold, Crude Oil Forecast: XAU Eyes NFPs to Gauge Taper Timeline Appetite<blockquote>黄金、原油预测：XAU 着眼于 NFP 来衡量缩减时间表的需求</blockquote>
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Last week, gold prices rallied after Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered hawkish expectations for tapering later this year. The Fed Chief cited the labor market specifically, which seemed to imply that for now, inflation data will be thrown to the wayside. That makes sense after months of driving home the transitory narrative. Now that the markets appear to have capitulated on that view, Fed commentary is more keenly focused on jobs.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>金价关注周五美国非农就业报告的走向</li><li>非农就业数据是美联储经济前景的关键，杰克逊霍尔在眼前</li><li>原油价格下跌至关键移动平均线支撑</li></ul>尽管美元疲软，但本周黄金价格基本保持不变。上周，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔缓和了今年晚些时候缩减规模的鹰派预期后，金价上涨。美联储主席特别提到了劳动力市场，这似乎意味着目前通胀数据将被搁置一边。在经历了几个月的短暂叙事之后，这是有道理的。既然市场似乎已经屈服于这一观点，美联储的评论更加关注就业。</blockquote></p><p> That said, this week’s non-farm payrolls report, slated to cross the wires on Friday, may be of particular importance to commodity prices. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect an addition of 875k jobs in July. That would see 25k more jobs added compared to June’s 850k figure. The same survey sees the unemployment rate dropping to 5.7% from 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，定于周五公布的本周非农就业报告可能对大宗商品价格尤为重要。根据彭博社的一项调查，分析师预计 7 月份将增加 87.5 万个就业岗位。与 6 月份的 85 万个相比，这将增加 2.5 万个工作岗位。同一项调查显示，失业率从 5.9% 降至 5.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s focus is on jobs, which makes this NFP report of particular importance to gold prices. That may translate to relatively outsized volatility if the data is well off the mark concerning estimates. Beyond the jobs data, markets will turn their eyes to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium scheduled for August 26-28. Mr. Powell is slated to speak, where many expect a potential signal on the Fed’s taper timeline. With that in mind, a miss on Friday’s numbers could feed the view that the Fed will hold off on announcing such a timeline. Alternatively, a better-than-expected print could fuel hawkish bets, which would bode poorly for gold prices.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的重点是就业，这使得这份非农就业报告对金价尤为重要。如果数据远远超出估计值，这可能会导致相对过大的波动性。除了就业数据，市场还将把目光转向定于 8 月 26 日至 28 日举行的杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会。鲍威尔先生定于发表讲话，许多人预计美联储的缩减规模时间表可能会发出一个潜在信号。有鉴于此，周五数据的失误可能会让人认为美联储将推迟宣布这一时间表。或者，好于预期的数据可能会引发鹰派押注，这对金价来说是个坏兆头。</blockquote></p><p> Elsewhere,crude oil pricesfell to start the week. The drop comes amid demand-side worries, which were amplified at the start of the week when a purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed a growth slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity. That coincided with poor PMI data from other Asian economic hubs, including Thailand and Malaysia.</p><p><blockquote>在其他地方，原油价格本周初下跌。本周初，采购经理人指数（PMI）显示中国制造业活动增长放缓，加剧了需求方面的担忧。与此同时，泰国和马来西亚等其他亚洲经济中心的PMI数据也不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GOLD TECHNICAL FORECAST:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>黄金技术预测：</b></blockquote></p><p> Gold prices are trading closely below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). An area of congestion, which has affected prices on both the support and resistance side, appears to be proving a degree of support currently. A bullish move would need to clear the 200-day SMA before moving higher. on the downside, a major level could be the psychologically imposing 1800 level.</p><p><blockquote>黄金价格接近 200 天简单移动平均线 (SMA) 下方。一个拥堵区域已经影响了支撑位和阻力位的价格，目前似乎正在证明一定程度的支撑。看涨走势需要突破 200 日移动平均线才能走高。不利的一面是，一个主要水平可能是心理上令人印象深刻的1800水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GOLD DAILY CHART</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c429fe46fb0dad8dad6862370c47a1\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart created withTradingView</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金日线图</b>使用TradingView创建的图表</blockquote></p><p> <b>CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL FORECAST</b></p><p><blockquote><b>原油技术预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Crude oil prices pulled back to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has offered a level of support earlier in the year. A degree of confluent support from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is seen on the daily chart. A move higher would turn the focus back to the 76.90 October 2018 high that price failed to maintain above in July.</p><p><blockquote>原油价格回落至 50 天简单移动平均线 (SMA)，该平均线在今年早些时候提供了一定程度的支撑。日线图上可以看到来自 38.2% 斐波那契回撤位的一定程度的汇合支撑。走高将使焦点回到 2018 年 10 月 76.90 点的高点，而该价格在 7 月份未能维持在该高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4cbf40ccc68545c486afa32063b83a\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart created with TradingView</p><p><blockquote><b>原油日线图</b>使用TradingView创建的图表</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1568971417606","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold, Crude Oil Forecast: XAU Eyes NFPs to Gauge Taper Timeline Appetite<blockquote>黄金、原油预测：XAU 着眼于 NFP 来衡量缩减时间表的需求</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold, Crude Oil Forecast: XAU Eyes NFPs to Gauge Taper Timeline Appetite<blockquote>黄金、原油预测：XAU 着眼于 NFP 来衡量缩减时间表的需求</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">DailyFX</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-03 13:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>GOLD, CRUDE OIL, COMMODITIES – TALKING POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>黄金、原油、大宗商品 – 谈话要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Gold prices eye Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report for direction</li> <li>NFP print key to Fed’s economic outlook, Jackson Hole in view</li> <li>Crude oil prices trade down to support at key moving average</li> </ul> The price of gold is largely unchanged this week despite a lackluster US Dollar. Last week, gold prices rallied after Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered hawkish expectations for tapering later this year. The Fed Chief cited the labor market specifically, which seemed to imply that for now, inflation data will be thrown to the wayside. That makes sense after months of driving home the transitory narrative. Now that the markets appear to have capitulated on that view, Fed commentary is more keenly focused on jobs.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>金价关注周五美国非农就业报告的走向</li><li>非农就业数据是美联储经济前景的关键，杰克逊霍尔在眼前</li><li>原油价格下跌至关键移动平均线支撑</li></ul>尽管美元疲软，但本周黄金价格基本保持不变。上周，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔缓和了今年晚些时候缩减规模的鹰派预期后，金价上涨。美联储主席特别提到了劳动力市场，这似乎意味着目前通胀数据将被搁置一边。在经历了几个月的短暂叙事之后，这是有道理的。既然市场似乎已经屈服于这一观点，美联储的评论更加关注就业。</blockquote></p><p> That said, this week’s non-farm payrolls report, slated to cross the wires on Friday, may be of particular importance to commodity prices. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect an addition of 875k jobs in July. That would see 25k more jobs added compared to June’s 850k figure. The same survey sees the unemployment rate dropping to 5.7% from 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，定于周五公布的本周非农就业报告可能对大宗商品价格尤为重要。根据彭博社的一项调查，分析师预计 7 月份将增加 87.5 万个就业岗位。与 6 月份的 85 万个相比，这将增加 2.5 万个工作岗位。同一项调查显示，失业率从 5.9% 降至 5.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s focus is on jobs, which makes this NFP report of particular importance to gold prices. That may translate to relatively outsized volatility if the data is well off the mark concerning estimates. Beyond the jobs data, markets will turn their eyes to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium scheduled for August 26-28. Mr. Powell is slated to speak, where many expect a potential signal on the Fed’s taper timeline. With that in mind, a miss on Friday’s numbers could feed the view that the Fed will hold off on announcing such a timeline. Alternatively, a better-than-expected print could fuel hawkish bets, which would bode poorly for gold prices.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的重点是就业，这使得这份非农就业报告对金价尤为重要。如果数据远远超出估计值，这可能会导致相对过大的波动性。除了就业数据，市场还将把目光转向定于 8 月 26 日至 28 日举行的杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会。鲍威尔先生定于发表讲话，许多人预计美联储的缩减规模时间表可能会发出一个潜在信号。有鉴于此，周五数据的失误可能会让人认为美联储将推迟宣布这一时间表。或者，好于预期的数据可能会引发鹰派押注，这对金价来说是个坏兆头。</blockquote></p><p> Elsewhere,crude oil pricesfell to start the week. The drop comes amid demand-side worries, which were amplified at the start of the week when a purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed a growth slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity. That coincided with poor PMI data from other Asian economic hubs, including Thailand and Malaysia.</p><p><blockquote>在其他地方，原油价格本周初下跌。本周初，采购经理人指数（PMI）显示中国制造业活动增长放缓，加剧了需求方面的担忧。与此同时，泰国和马来西亚等其他亚洲经济中心的PMI数据也不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GOLD TECHNICAL FORECAST:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>黄金技术预测：</b></blockquote></p><p> Gold prices are trading closely below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). An area of congestion, which has affected prices on both the support and resistance side, appears to be proving a degree of support currently. A bullish move would need to clear the 200-day SMA before moving higher. on the downside, a major level could be the psychologically imposing 1800 level.</p><p><blockquote>黄金价格接近 200 天简单移动平均线 (SMA) 下方。一个拥堵区域已经影响了支撑位和阻力位的价格，目前似乎正在证明一定程度的支撑。看涨走势需要突破 200 日移动平均线才能走高。不利的一面是，一个主要水平可能是心理上令人印象深刻的1800水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GOLD DAILY CHART</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c429fe46fb0dad8dad6862370c47a1\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart created withTradingView</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金日线图</b>使用TradingView创建的图表</blockquote></p><p> <b>CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL FORECAST</b></p><p><blockquote><b>原油技术预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Crude oil prices pulled back to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has offered a level of support earlier in the year. A degree of confluent support from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is seen on the daily chart. A move higher would turn the focus back to the 76.90 October 2018 high that price failed to maintain above in July.</p><p><blockquote>原油价格回落至 50 天简单移动平均线 (SMA)，该平均线在今年早些时候提供了一定程度的支撑。日线图上可以看到来自 38.2% 斐波那契回撤位的一定程度的汇合支撑。走高将使焦点回到 2018 年 10 月 76.90 点的高点，而该价格在 7 月份未能维持在该高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4cbf40ccc68545c486afa32063b83a\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart created with TradingView</p><p><blockquote><b>原油日线图</b>使用TradingView创建的图表</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2021/08/03/Gold-Crude-Oil-Forecast-XAU-Eyes-NFPs-to-Gauge-Taper-Timeline-Appetite.html\">DailyFX</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2021/08/03/Gold-Crude-Oil-Forecast-XAU-Eyes-NFPs-to-Gauge-Taper-Timeline-Appetite.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158866167","content_text":"GOLD, CRUDE OIL, COMMODITIES – TALKING POINTS\n\nGold prices eye Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report for direction\nNFP print key to Fed’s economic outlook, Jackson Hole in view\nCrude oil prices trade down to support at key moving average\n\nThe price of gold is largely unchanged this week despite a lackluster US Dollar. Last week, gold prices rallied after Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered hawkish expectations for tapering later this year. The Fed Chief cited the labor market specifically, which seemed to imply that for now, inflation data will be thrown to the wayside. That makes sense after months of driving home the transitory narrative. Now that the markets appear to have capitulated on that view, Fed commentary is more keenly focused on jobs.\nThat said, this week’s non-farm payrolls report, slated to cross the wires on Friday, may be of particular importance to commodity prices. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect an addition of 875k jobs in July. That would see 25k more jobs added compared to June’s 850k figure. The same survey sees the unemployment rate dropping to 5.7% from 5.9%.\nThe Fed’s focus is on jobs, which makes this NFP report of particular importance to gold prices. That may translate to relatively outsized volatility if the data is well off the mark concerning estimates. Beyond the jobs data, markets will turn their eyes to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium scheduled for August 26-28. Mr. Powell is slated to speak, where many expect a potential signal on the Fed’s taper timeline. With that in mind, a miss on Friday’s numbers could feed the view that the Fed will hold off on announcing such a timeline. Alternatively, a better-than-expected print could fuel hawkish bets, which would bode poorly for gold prices.\nElsewhere,crude oil pricesfell to start the week. The drop comes amid demand-side worries, which were amplified at the start of the week when a purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed a growth slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity. That coincided with poor PMI data from other Asian economic hubs, including Thailand and Malaysia.\nGOLD TECHNICAL FORECAST:\nGold prices are trading closely below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). An area of congestion, which has affected prices on both the support and resistance side, appears to be proving a degree of support currently. A bullish move would need to clear the 200-day SMA before moving higher. on the downside, a major level could be the psychologically imposing 1800 level.\nGOLD DAILY CHARTChart created withTradingView\nCRUDE OIL TECHNICAL FORECAST\nCrude oil prices pulled back to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has offered a level of support earlier in the year. A degree of confluent support from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is seen on the daily chart. A move higher would turn the focus back to the 76.90 October 2018 high that price failed to maintain above in July.\nCRUDE OIL DAILY CHARTChart created with TradingView","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MCLmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"UKOILmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3560,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/804438012"}
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