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2021-08-03
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Gold, Crude Oil Forecast: XAU Eyes NFPs to Gauge Taper Timeline Appetite<blockquote>黄金、原油预测：XAU关注NFP来衡量缩减时间表的胃口</blockquote>
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Last week, gold prices rallied after Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered hawkish expectations for tapering later this year. The Fed Chief cited the labor market specifically, which seemed to imply that for now, inflation data will be thrown to the wayside. That makes sense after months of driving home the transitory narrative. Now that the markets appear to have capitulated on that view, Fed commentary is more keenly focused on jobs.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>金价关注周五美国非农就业报告寻找方向</li><li>NFP打印是美联储经济前景的关键，杰克逊霍尔在望</li><li>原油价格下跌至关键移动平均线支撑</li></ul>尽管美元表现不佳，但本周金价基本保持不变。上周，在美联储主席鲍威尔缓和了对今年晚些时候缩减规模的鹰派预期后，金价上涨。这位美联储主席特别提到了劳动力市场，这似乎意味着目前通胀数据将被搁置一旁。在经历了几个月的短暂叙述之后，这是有道理的。既然市场似乎已经屈服于这一观点，美联储的评论更加关注就业。</blockquote></p><p> That said, this week’s non-farm payrolls report, slated to cross the wires on Friday, may be of particular importance to commodity prices. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect an addition of 875k jobs in July. That would see 25k more jobs added compared to June’s 850k figure. The same survey sees the unemployment rate dropping to 5.7% from 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，定于周五发布的本周非农就业报告可能对大宗商品价格特别重要。根据彭博社的一项调查，分析师预计7月份将增加87.5万个就业岗位。与6月份的85万个数字相比，这将增加2.5万个就业岗位。同一项调查显示失业率从5.9%降至5.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s focus is on jobs, which makes this NFP report of particular importance to gold prices. That may translate to relatively outsized volatility if the data is well off the mark concerning estimates. Beyond the jobs data, markets will turn their eyes to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium scheduled for August 26-28. Mr. Powell is slated to speak, where many expect a potential signal on the Fed’s taper timeline. With that in mind, a miss on Friday’s numbers could feed the view that the Fed will hold off on announcing such a timeline. Alternatively, a better-than-expected print could fuel hawkish bets, which would bode poorly for gold prices.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的重点是就业，这使得这份NFP报告对金价尤为重要。如果数据与估计值相差甚远，这可能会转化为相对较大的波动。除了就业数据之外，市场还将把目光转向定于8月26日至28日举行的杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会。鲍威尔定于发表讲话，许多人预计这将是美联储缩减时间表的潜在信号。考虑到这一点，周五数据的失误可能会助长美联储将推迟宣布这样的时间表的观点。或者，好于预期的数据可能会助长鹰派押注，这对金价来说是个坏兆头。</blockquote></p><p> Elsewhere,crude oil pricesfell to start the week. The drop comes amid demand-side worries, which were amplified at the start of the week when a purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed a growth slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity. That coincided with poor PMI data from other Asian economic hubs, including Thailand and Malaysia.</p><p><blockquote>在其他地方，原油价格本周初下跌。这一下降是在需求方面的担忧之际发生的，本周初，当采购经理人指数（PMI）显示中国制造业活动增长放缓时，这种担忧被放大。与此同时，包括泰国和马来西亚在内的其他亚洲经济中心的PMI数据也不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GOLD TECHNICAL FORECAST:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>黄金技术预测：</b></blockquote></p><p> Gold prices are trading closely below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). An area of congestion, which has affected prices on both the support and resistance side, appears to be proving a degree of support currently. A bullish move would need to clear the 200-day SMA before moving higher. on the downside, a major level could be the psychologically imposing 1800 level.</p><p><blockquote>金价交易价格接近200日简单移动平均线（SMA）。拥堵区域影响了支撑位和阻力位的价格，目前似乎提供了一定程度的支撑。看涨走势需要清除200日移动平均线才能走高。不利的一面是，一个主要水平可能是心理上令人印象深刻的1800点水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GOLD DAILY CHART</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c429fe46fb0dad8dad6862370c47a1\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart created withTradingView</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金日线图</b>使用TradingView创建的图表</blockquote></p><p> <b>CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL FORECAST</b></p><p><blockquote><b>原油技术面预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Crude oil prices pulled back to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has offered a level of support earlier in the year. A degree of confluent support from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is seen on the daily chart. A move higher would turn the focus back to the 76.90 October 2018 high that price failed to maintain above in July.</p><p><blockquote>原油价格回落至50日简单移动平均线(SMA)，该平均线在今年早些时候提供了支撑位。日线图上可以看到38.2%斐波那契回撤位的一定程度的汇合支撑。走高将使焦点回到2018年10月高点76.90，该价格在7月份未能维持在该高点之上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4cbf40ccc68545c486afa32063b83a\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart created with TradingView</p><p><blockquote><b>原油日线图</b>使用TradingView创建的图表</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1568971417606","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold, Crude Oil Forecast: XAU Eyes NFPs to Gauge Taper Timeline Appetite<blockquote>黄金、原油预测：XAU关注NFP来衡量缩减时间表的胃口</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold, Crude Oil Forecast: XAU Eyes NFPs to Gauge Taper Timeline Appetite<blockquote>黄金、原油预测：XAU关注NFP来衡量缩减时间表的胃口</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">DailyFX</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-03 13:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>GOLD, CRUDE OIL, COMMODITIES – TALKING POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>黄金、原油、大宗商品-谈话要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Gold prices eye Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report for direction</li> <li>NFP print key to Fed’s economic outlook, Jackson Hole in view</li> <li>Crude oil prices trade down to support at key moving average</li> </ul> The price of gold is largely unchanged this week despite a lackluster US Dollar. Last week, gold prices rallied after Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered hawkish expectations for tapering later this year. The Fed Chief cited the labor market specifically, which seemed to imply that for now, inflation data will be thrown to the wayside. That makes sense after months of driving home the transitory narrative. Now that the markets appear to have capitulated on that view, Fed commentary is more keenly focused on jobs.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>金价关注周五美国非农就业报告寻找方向</li><li>NFP打印是美联储经济前景的关键，杰克逊霍尔在望</li><li>原油价格下跌至关键移动平均线支撑</li></ul>尽管美元表现不佳，但本周金价基本保持不变。上周，在美联储主席鲍威尔缓和了对今年晚些时候缩减规模的鹰派预期后，金价上涨。这位美联储主席特别提到了劳动力市场，这似乎意味着目前通胀数据将被搁置一旁。在经历了几个月的短暂叙述之后，这是有道理的。既然市场似乎已经屈服于这一观点，美联储的评论更加关注就业。</blockquote></p><p> That said, this week’s non-farm payrolls report, slated to cross the wires on Friday, may be of particular importance to commodity prices. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect an addition of 875k jobs in July. That would see 25k more jobs added compared to June’s 850k figure. The same survey sees the unemployment rate dropping to 5.7% from 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，定于周五发布的本周非农就业报告可能对大宗商品价格特别重要。根据彭博社的一项调查，分析师预计7月份将增加87.5万个就业岗位。与6月份的85万个数字相比，这将增加2.5万个就业岗位。同一项调查显示失业率从5.9%降至5.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s focus is on jobs, which makes this NFP report of particular importance to gold prices. That may translate to relatively outsized volatility if the data is well off the mark concerning estimates. Beyond the jobs data, markets will turn their eyes to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium scheduled for August 26-28. Mr. Powell is slated to speak, where many expect a potential signal on the Fed’s taper timeline. With that in mind, a miss on Friday’s numbers could feed the view that the Fed will hold off on announcing such a timeline. Alternatively, a better-than-expected print could fuel hawkish bets, which would bode poorly for gold prices.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的重点是就业，这使得这份NFP报告对金价尤为重要。如果数据与估计值相差甚远，这可能会转化为相对较大的波动。除了就业数据之外，市场还将把目光转向定于8月26日至28日举行的杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会。鲍威尔定于发表讲话，许多人预计这将是美联储缩减时间表的潜在信号。考虑到这一点，周五数据的失误可能会助长美联储将推迟宣布这样的时间表的观点。或者，好于预期的数据可能会助长鹰派押注，这对金价来说是个坏兆头。</blockquote></p><p> Elsewhere,crude oil pricesfell to start the week. The drop comes amid demand-side worries, which were amplified at the start of the week when a purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed a growth slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity. That coincided with poor PMI data from other Asian economic hubs, including Thailand and Malaysia.</p><p><blockquote>在其他地方，原油价格本周初下跌。这一下降是在需求方面的担忧之际发生的，本周初，当采购经理人指数（PMI）显示中国制造业活动增长放缓时，这种担忧被放大。与此同时，包括泰国和马来西亚在内的其他亚洲经济中心的PMI数据也不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GOLD TECHNICAL FORECAST:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>黄金技术预测：</b></blockquote></p><p> Gold prices are trading closely below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). An area of congestion, which has affected prices on both the support and resistance side, appears to be proving a degree of support currently. A bullish move would need to clear the 200-day SMA before moving higher. on the downside, a major level could be the psychologically imposing 1800 level.</p><p><blockquote>金价交易价格接近200日简单移动平均线（SMA）。拥堵区域影响了支撑位和阻力位的价格，目前似乎提供了一定程度的支撑。看涨走势需要清除200日移动平均线才能走高。不利的一面是，一个主要水平可能是心理上令人印象深刻的1800点水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GOLD DAILY CHART</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c429fe46fb0dad8dad6862370c47a1\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart created withTradingView</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金日线图</b>使用TradingView创建的图表</blockquote></p><p> <b>CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL FORECAST</b></p><p><blockquote><b>原油技术面预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Crude oil prices pulled back to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has offered a level of support earlier in the year. A degree of confluent support from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is seen on the daily chart. A move higher would turn the focus back to the 76.90 October 2018 high that price failed to maintain above in July.</p><p><blockquote>原油价格回落至50日简单移动平均线(SMA)，该平均线在今年早些时候提供了支撑位。日线图上可以看到38.2%斐波那契回撤位的一定程度的汇合支撑。走高将使焦点回到2018年10月高点76.90，该价格在7月份未能维持在该高点之上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4cbf40ccc68545c486afa32063b83a\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart created with TradingView</p><p><blockquote><b>原油日线图</b>使用TradingView创建的图表</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2021/08/03/Gold-Crude-Oil-Forecast-XAU-Eyes-NFPs-to-Gauge-Taper-Timeline-Appetite.html\">DailyFX</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2021/08/03/Gold-Crude-Oil-Forecast-XAU-Eyes-NFPs-to-Gauge-Taper-Timeline-Appetite.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158866167","content_text":"GOLD, CRUDE OIL, COMMODITIES – TALKING POINTS\n\nGold prices eye Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report for direction\nNFP print key to Fed’s economic outlook, Jackson Hole in view\nCrude oil prices trade down to support at key moving average\n\nThe price of gold is largely unchanged this week despite a lackluster US Dollar. Last week, gold prices rallied after Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered hawkish expectations for tapering later this year. The Fed Chief cited the labor market specifically, which seemed to imply that for now, inflation data will be thrown to the wayside. That makes sense after months of driving home the transitory narrative. Now that the markets appear to have capitulated on that view, Fed commentary is more keenly focused on jobs.\nThat said, this week’s non-farm payrolls report, slated to cross the wires on Friday, may be of particular importance to commodity prices. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect an addition of 875k jobs in July. That would see 25k more jobs added compared to June’s 850k figure. The same survey sees the unemployment rate dropping to 5.7% from 5.9%.\nThe Fed’s focus is on jobs, which makes this NFP report of particular importance to gold prices. That may translate to relatively outsized volatility if the data is well off the mark concerning estimates. Beyond the jobs data, markets will turn their eyes to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium scheduled for August 26-28. Mr. Powell is slated to speak, where many expect a potential signal on the Fed’s taper timeline. With that in mind, a miss on Friday’s numbers could feed the view that the Fed will hold off on announcing such a timeline. Alternatively, a better-than-expected print could fuel hawkish bets, which would bode poorly for gold prices.\nElsewhere,crude oil pricesfell to start the week. The drop comes amid demand-side worries, which were amplified at the start of the week when a purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed a growth slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity. That coincided with poor PMI data from other Asian economic hubs, including Thailand and Malaysia.\nGOLD TECHNICAL FORECAST:\nGold prices are trading closely below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). An area of congestion, which has affected prices on both the support and resistance side, appears to be proving a degree of support currently. A bullish move would need to clear the 200-day SMA before moving higher. on the downside, a major level could be the psychologically imposing 1800 level.\nGOLD DAILY CHARTChart created withTradingView\nCRUDE OIL TECHNICAL FORECAST\nCrude oil prices pulled back to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has offered a level of support earlier in the year. A degree of confluent support from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is seen on the daily chart. A move higher would turn the focus back to the 76.90 October 2018 high that price failed to maintain above in July.\nCRUDE OIL DAILY CHARTChart created with TradingView","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UKOILmain":0.9,"MCLmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2569,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/804438012"}
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