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2021-08-03
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Can Bloated U.S. Large Caps Make Room For Small Caps?<blockquote>臃肿的美国大盘股能否为小盘股腾出空间？</blockquote>
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The S&P SmallCap 600 finished the first half strong, posting its best performance through the first six months of any year since it was created.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，小盘股还是今年的宠儿，随着经济复苏的显现，小盘股的表现轻松超过了大盘股。标准普尔小型股 600 指数上半年表现强劲，创下自成立以来上半年的最佳表现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>S&P SmallCap 600 - Return Through First 6 Months of the Year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>S&P SmallCap 600 - 今年前 6 个月的回报</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74af8ccc0d1010e404c1f6e38a1dde47\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But the proverbial tortoise caught up to the hare at the start of the second half, as the S&P 500 Index virtually erased its underperformance relative to the S&P SmallCap 600 over the last two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>但众所周知的乌龟在下半年开始时赶上了野兔，标普500指数几乎抹去了过去两周相对于标准普尔小型股 600 指数的表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> The change in market leadership is the result of a number of factors: surging cases of the COVID-19 delta variant, impressive Q2 earnings results from large-cap stalwarts and perhaps even some small-cap investors booking gains after a stellar first half.</p><p><blockquote>市场领导地位的变化是多种因素的结果：COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株病例激增、大盘股中坚力量令人印象深刻的第二季度盈利结果，甚至一些小盘股投资者在上半年表现出色后也实现了收益。</blockquote></p><p> No matter the narrative, however, there are already significant implications of the swift, sudden reversal. One cautionary flag is already being waved: after their recent rally, U.S. large caps are the most expensive they have ever been, relative to small caps, since the 2001 tech bubble.</p><p><blockquote>然而，无论叙述如何，这种迅速、突然的逆转已经有了重要的含义。一个警告信号已经在挥舞：在最近的反弹之后，美国大盘股相对于小盘股而言是自 2001 年科技泡沫以来最昂贵的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>S&P 500 Forward P/E / S&P 600 Forward P/E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500远期市盈率 / 标准普尔 600 远期市盈率</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39a4e15c427952c240d02916954deeeb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Specifically, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 relative to that of the S&P SmallCap 600 is measuring at levels last seen at the end of the 2001. Similar relative valuations temporarily spiked at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 but corrected quickly.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，标普500相对于标准普尔小型股 600 指数的远期市盈率处于 2001 年底的水平。类似的相对估值在 2020 年 3 月 COVID-19 大流行爆发时暂时飙升，但很快修正。</blockquote></p><p> The recent run-up would be less concerning if the gauge was less than 1. Historically, large caps often commanded a lower valuation than small caps, since the latter were perceived to be riskier (hence, lower earnings in the ratio’s denominator). The former, with higher earnings and perceived relative safety, had their valuations kept in check.</p><p><blockquote>如果指标小于 1，最近的上涨就不会那么令人担忧了。从历史上看，大盘股的估值往往低于小盘股，因为小盘股被认为风险更高（因此，该比率的分母收益较低）。前者收益更高，被认为相对安全，因此其估值受到控制。</blockquote></p><p> But this trend has also been reversed, with large caps now trading at a forward P/E premium to small caps of about 20%. If history is any indication, this may signal that there are frothy and bloated valuations in the large-cap market, with small caps perhaps due for a tailwind or the former for a correction.</p><p><blockquote>但这一趋势也发生了逆转，目前大盘股的远期市盈率比小盘股溢价约 20%。如果历史有任何迹象的话，这可能表明大盘股市场存在泡沫和臃肿的估值，小盘股可能会迎来顺风，或者前者会出现调整。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to ignore the opportunity that this creates for small caps, and only reinforces our optimism on the “reopening” trade: bullish on cyclical sectors, value and small caps. While fears over the surging COVID-19 delta variant have given investors pause, we think that this may just delay the economic recovery, rather than derail it.</p><p><blockquote>很难忽视这为小盘股创造的机会，这只会更加坚定我们对 “重新开放 ”交易的乐观态度：看好周期性板块、价值和小盘股。尽管对 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株飙升的担忧让投资者犹豫不决，但我们认为这可能只会推迟经济复苏，而不是破坏经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Once fears of the delta variant subside and the recovery continues, we believe that small caps may continue this year’s upward trajectory as important pieces of the economic recovery. Until then, be wary of prevailing large-cap valuations in your portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>一旦对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧消退，经济复苏得以持续，我们相信小盘股可能会继续保持今年的上升趋势，成为经济复苏的重要组成部分。在此之前，请警惕投资组合中盛行的大盘估值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Bloated U.S. Large Caps Make Room For Small Caps?<blockquote>臃肿的美国大盘股能否为小盘股腾出空间？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Bloated U.S. Large Caps Make Room For Small Caps?<blockquote>臃肿的美国大盘股能否为小盘股腾出空间？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-03 15:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Until recently, small caps were this year’s darling, comfortably outperforming their large-cap brethren as the economic recovery manifested.</li> <li>The S&P SmallCap 600 finished the first half strong, posting its best performance through the first six months of any year since it was created.</li> <li>But the proverbial tortoise caught up to the hare at the start of the second half, as the S&P 500 Index virtually erased its underperformance relative to the S&P SmallCap 600 over the last two weeks.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefa76b6b80fbad76b9427f757e402bd\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>primeimages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>直到最近，小盘股还是今年的宠儿，随着经济复苏的显现，小盘股的表现轻松超过了大盘股。</li><li>标准普尔小型股 600 指数上半年表现强劲，创下自成立以来上半年的最佳表现。</li><li>但众所周知的乌龟在下半年开始时赶上了野兔，标普500指数几乎抹去了过去两周相对于标准普尔小型股 600 指数的表现不佳。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>primeimages/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the last few weeks, U.S. equities have staged a reversal within the very markets that have been this year’s most reliable trade.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几周里，美国股市在今年最可靠的交易市场中出现了逆转。</blockquote></p><p> Until recently, small caps were this year’s darling, comfortably outperforming their large-cap brethren as the economic recovery manifested. The S&P SmallCap 600 finished the first half strong, posting its best performance through the first six months of any year since it was created.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，小盘股还是今年的宠儿，随着经济复苏的显现，小盘股的表现轻松超过了大盘股。标准普尔小型股 600 指数上半年表现强劲，创下自成立以来上半年的最佳表现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>S&P SmallCap 600 - Return Through First 6 Months of the Year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>S&P SmallCap 600 - 今年前 6 个月的回报</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74af8ccc0d1010e404c1f6e38a1dde47\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But the proverbial tortoise caught up to the hare at the start of the second half, as the S&P 500 Index virtually erased its underperformance relative to the S&P SmallCap 600 over the last two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>但众所周知的乌龟在下半年开始时赶上了野兔，标普500指数几乎抹去了过去两周相对于标准普尔小型股 600 指数的表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> The change in market leadership is the result of a number of factors: surging cases of the COVID-19 delta variant, impressive Q2 earnings results from large-cap stalwarts and perhaps even some small-cap investors booking gains after a stellar first half.</p><p><blockquote>市场领导地位的变化是多种因素的结果：COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株病例激增、大盘股中坚力量令人印象深刻的第二季度盈利结果，甚至一些小盘股投资者在上半年表现出色后也实现了收益。</blockquote></p><p> No matter the narrative, however, there are already significant implications of the swift, sudden reversal. One cautionary flag is already being waved: after their recent rally, U.S. large caps are the most expensive they have ever been, relative to small caps, since the 2001 tech bubble.</p><p><blockquote>然而，无论叙述如何，这种迅速、突然的逆转已经有了重要的含义。一个警告信号已经在挥舞：在最近的反弹之后，美国大盘股相对于小盘股而言是自 2001 年科技泡沫以来最昂贵的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>S&P 500 Forward P/E / S&P 600 Forward P/E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500远期市盈率 / 标准普尔 600 远期市盈率</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39a4e15c427952c240d02916954deeeb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Specifically, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 relative to that of the S&P SmallCap 600 is measuring at levels last seen at the end of the 2001. Similar relative valuations temporarily spiked at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 but corrected quickly.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，标普500相对于标准普尔小型股 600 指数的远期市盈率处于 2001 年底的水平。类似的相对估值在 2020 年 3 月 COVID-19 大流行爆发时暂时飙升，但很快修正。</blockquote></p><p> The recent run-up would be less concerning if the gauge was less than 1. Historically, large caps often commanded a lower valuation than small caps, since the latter were perceived to be riskier (hence, lower earnings in the ratio’s denominator). The former, with higher earnings and perceived relative safety, had their valuations kept in check.</p><p><blockquote>如果指标小于 1，最近的上涨就不会那么令人担忧了。从历史上看，大盘股的估值往往低于小盘股，因为小盘股被认为风险更高（因此，该比率的分母收益较低）。前者收益更高，被认为相对安全，因此其估值受到控制。</blockquote></p><p> But this trend has also been reversed, with large caps now trading at a forward P/E premium to small caps of about 20%. If history is any indication, this may signal that there are frothy and bloated valuations in the large-cap market, with small caps perhaps due for a tailwind or the former for a correction.</p><p><blockquote>但这一趋势也发生了逆转，目前大盘股的远期市盈率比小盘股溢价约 20%。如果历史有任何迹象的话，这可能表明大盘股市场存在泡沫和臃肿的估值，小盘股可能会迎来顺风，或者前者会出现调整。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to ignore the opportunity that this creates for small caps, and only reinforces our optimism on the “reopening” trade: bullish on cyclical sectors, value and small caps. While fears over the surging COVID-19 delta variant have given investors pause, we think that this may just delay the economic recovery, rather than derail it.</p><p><blockquote>很难忽视这为小盘股创造的机会，这只会更加坚定我们对 “重新开放 ”交易的乐观态度：看好周期性板块、价值和小盘股。尽管对 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株飙升的担忧让投资者犹豫不决，但我们认为这可能只会推迟经济复苏，而不是破坏经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Once fears of the delta variant subside and the recovery continues, we believe that small caps may continue this year’s upward trajectory as important pieces of the economic recovery. Until then, be wary of prevailing large-cap valuations in your portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>一旦对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧消退，经济复苏得以持续，我们相信小盘股可能会继续保持今年的上升趋势，成为经济复苏的重要组成部分。在此之前，请警惕投资组合中盛行的大盘估值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444194-can-bloated-us-large-caps-make-room-for-small-caps\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444194-can-bloated-us-large-caps-make-room-for-small-caps","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105113028","content_text":"Summary\n\nUntil recently, small caps were this year’s darling, comfortably outperforming their large-cap brethren as the economic recovery manifested.\nThe S&P SmallCap 600 finished the first half strong, posting its best performance through the first six months of any year since it was created.\nBut the proverbial tortoise caught up to the hare at the start of the second half, as the S&P 500 Index virtually erased its underperformance relative to the S&P SmallCap 600 over the last two weeks.\n\nprimeimages/E+ via Getty Images\nOver the last few weeks, U.S. equities have staged a reversal within the very markets that have been this year’s most reliable trade.\nUntil recently, small caps were this year’s darling, comfortably outperforming their large-cap brethren as the economic recovery manifested. The S&P SmallCap 600 finished the first half strong, posting its best performance through the first six months of any year since it was created.\nS&P SmallCap 600 - Return Through First 6 Months of the Year\n\nBut the proverbial tortoise caught up to the hare at the start of the second half, as the S&P 500 Index virtually erased its underperformance relative to the S&P SmallCap 600 over the last two weeks.\nThe change in market leadership is the result of a number of factors: surging cases of the COVID-19 delta variant, impressive Q2 earnings results from large-cap stalwarts and perhaps even some small-cap investors booking gains after a stellar first half.\nNo matter the narrative, however, there are already significant implications of the swift, sudden reversal. One cautionary flag is already being waved: after their recent rally, U.S. large caps are the most expensive they have ever been, relative to small caps, since the 2001 tech bubble.\nS&P 500 Forward P/E / S&P 600 Forward P/E\n\nSpecifically, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 relative to that of the S&P SmallCap 600 is measuring at levels last seen at the end of the 2001. Similar relative valuations temporarily spiked at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 but corrected quickly.\nThe recent run-up would be less concerning if the gauge was less than 1. Historically, large caps often commanded a lower valuation than small caps, since the latter were perceived to be riskier (hence, lower earnings in the ratio’s denominator). The former, with higher earnings and perceived relative safety, had their valuations kept in check.\nBut this trend has also been reversed, with large caps now trading at a forward P/E premium to small caps of about 20%. If history is any indication, this may signal that there are frothy and bloated valuations in the large-cap market, with small caps perhaps due for a tailwind or the former for a correction.\nIt’s hard to ignore the opportunity that this creates for small caps, and only reinforces our optimism on the “reopening” trade: bullish on cyclical sectors, value and small caps. While fears over the surging COVID-19 delta variant have given investors pause, we think that this may just delay the economic recovery, rather than derail it.\nOnce fears of the delta variant subside and the recovery continues, we believe that small caps may continue this year’s upward trajectory as important pieces of the economic recovery. Until then, be wary of prevailing large-cap valuations in your portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1123,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/804701413"}
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