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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":804723561,"tweetId":"804723561","gmtCreate":1627981727553,"gmtModify":1631891852988,"author":{"id":3582885563104065,"idStr":"3582885563104065","authorId":3582885563104065,"authorIdStr":"3582885563104065","name":"SUSU","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12d6dec73af6ec3f990d144c7e967c0b","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>hi</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>hi</body></html>","text":"hi","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804723561","repostId":1126428821,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126428821","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627981590,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126428821?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 17:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How To Spot The Start Of The Tapering Cycle<blockquote>如何发现逐渐减少周期的开始</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126428821","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Job growth at pre-pandemic levels is the key to the start of tapering, according to Fed Chair Powell","content":"Job growth at pre-pandemic levels is the key to the start of tapering, according to Fed Chair Powell. The good news for fixed income traders worried about higher rates and bond bulls is we’re not there yet.<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔表示，就业增长达到大流行前的水平是开始缩减规模的关键。对于担心利率上升和债券多头的固定收益交易员来说，好消息是我们还没有到那一步。</blockquote> A good gauge for when we do get there,take a look at the spread between the labor participation rate and job openings (JOLTS).It’s nowhere near pre-pandemic levels. Looking back at where labor and job openings were when the Fed announced tapering in December 2013 serves as a decent indication of what this relationship needs to look like before tapering is a more convincing option for the central bank.<blockquote>一个很好的衡量我们何时到达那里，看看劳动参与率和职位空缺（JOLTS）之间的利差。远未达到大流行前的水平。回顾2013年12月美联储宣布缩减规模时劳动力和职位空缺的情况，可以很好地表明，在缩减规模成为央行更有说服力的选择之前，这种关系需要是什么样子。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84e3a3f692f7801c67928066e3bedbd6\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"246\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The question Fed Chair Powell is asked time and time again and the one he cannot seem to answer is “what does transitory mean and when will inflation point to the beginning of tapering?” The answer is likely not about inflation at all, but jobs. Remember, inflation is transitory for the Fed, or is it?<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔一次又一次地被问到这个问题，但他似乎无法回答的一个问题是“暂时性意味着什么？通胀何时会指向缩减规模的开始？”答案可能根本不是通货膨胀，而是就业。请记住，通货膨胀对美联储来说是暂时的，是吗？</blockquote> Take a look at another metric of jobs returning to pre-pandemic levels: payroll gains and jobless claims. It seems we’re already there and the Fed is indeed behind the curve. It’s likely to fall even further behind once inflation begins to percolate.<blockquote>看看就业恢复到大流行前水平的另一个指标：工资增长和初请失业金人数。似乎我们已经到了那里，而美联储确实落后了。一旦通货膨胀开始渗透，它可能会进一步落后。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be98f1ce03c5152b6f44c2bf52e81efb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"248\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">That means inflation and inflationary expectations are like a spring wound tight. It is only when you reach the tipping point that it unravels. For the Fed, it appears that time is when labor participation increases sufficiently to fill current job openings.<blockquote>这意味着通胀和通胀预期就像一个绷紧的弹簧。只有当你达到临界点时，它才会瓦解。对于美联储来说，似乎是劳动力参与率增加到足以填补当前职位空缺的时候。</blockquote> We may be closer than we think to that moment. School re-openings and the end of extended jobs benefits is right around the corner. That should produce an increase in the labor participation rate and result in fewer job openings. That’s when the first aforementioned metric may come into play.<blockquote>我们可能比我们想象的更接近那一刻。学校重新开放和延长工作福利的结束指日可待。这应该会提高劳动参与率，减少职位空缺。这时，上述第一个指标可能会发挥作用。</blockquote> For equity investors, it’s not a time to panic. The 2013 taper tantrum didn’t produce an extended selloff but it was a different story for bond traders. As the participation/job opening gap closes, the canary in the coal mine may stop singing. That’ll likely be a sign that tapering is at hand and signal the beginning of a substantial bond correction.<blockquote>对于股票投资者来说，现在不是恐慌的时候。2013年的缩减恐慌并没有导致长期抛售，但对于债券交易员来说，情况就不同了。随着参与/职位空缺差距的缩小，煤矿里的金丝雀可能会停止歌唱。这可能是缩减购债规模即将到来的迹象，也标志着债券大幅调整的开始。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How To Spot The Start Of The Tapering Cycle<blockquote>如何发现逐渐减少周期的开始</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow To Spot The Start Of The Tapering Cycle<blockquote>如何发现逐渐减少周期的开始</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-03 17:06\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nJob growth at pre-pandemic levels is the key to the start of tapering, according to Fed Chair Powell. The good news for fixed income traders worried about higher rates and bond bulls is we’re not there yet.<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔表示，就业增长达到大流行前的水平是开始缩减规模的关键。对于担心利率上升和债券多头的固定收益交易员来说，好消息是我们还没有到那一步。</blockquote> A good gauge for when we do get there,take a look at the spread between the labor participation rate and job openings (JOLTS).It’s nowhere near pre-pandemic levels. Looking back at where labor and job openings were when the Fed announced tapering in December 2013 serves as a decent indication of what this relationship needs to look like before tapering is a more convincing option for the central bank.<blockquote>一个很好的衡量我们何时到达那里，看看劳动参与率和职位空缺（JOLTS）之间的利差。远未达到大流行前的水平。回顾2013年12月美联储宣布缩减规模时劳动力和职位空缺的情况，可以很好地表明，在缩减规模成为央行更有说服力的选择之前，这种关系需要是什么样子。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84e3a3f692f7801c67928066e3bedbd6\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"246\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The question Fed Chair Powell is asked time and time again and the one he cannot seem to answer is “what does transitory mean and when will inflation point to the beginning of tapering?” The answer is likely not about inflation at all, but jobs. Remember, inflation is transitory for the Fed, or is it?<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔一次又一次地被问到这个问题，但他似乎无法回答的一个问题是“暂时性意味着什么？通胀何时会指向缩减规模的开始？”答案可能根本不是通货膨胀，而是就业。请记住，通货膨胀对美联储来说是暂时的，是吗？</blockquote> Take a look at another metric of jobs returning to pre-pandemic levels: payroll gains and jobless claims. It seems we’re already there and the Fed is indeed behind the curve. It’s likely to fall even further behind once inflation begins to percolate.<blockquote>看看就业恢复到大流行前水平的另一个指标：工资增长和初请失业金人数。似乎我们已经到了那里，而美联储确实落后了。一旦通货膨胀开始渗透，它可能会进一步落后。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be98f1ce03c5152b6f44c2bf52e81efb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"248\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">That means inflation and inflationary expectations are like a spring wound tight. It is only when you reach the tipping point that it unravels. For the Fed, it appears that time is when labor participation increases sufficiently to fill current job openings.<blockquote>这意味着通胀和通胀预期就像一个绷紧的弹簧。只有当你达到临界点时，它才会瓦解。对于美联储来说，似乎是劳动力参与率增加到足以填补当前职位空缺的时候。</blockquote> We may be closer than we think to that moment. School re-openings and the end of extended jobs benefits is right around the corner. That should produce an increase in the labor participation rate and result in fewer job openings. That’s when the first aforementioned metric may come into play.<blockquote>我们可能比我们想象的更接近那一刻。学校重新开放和延长工作福利的结束指日可待。这应该会提高劳动参与率，减少职位空缺。这时，上述第一个指标可能会发挥作用。</blockquote> For equity investors, it’s not a time to panic. The 2013 taper tantrum didn’t produce an extended selloff but it was a different story for bond traders. As the participation/job opening gap closes, the canary in the coal mine may stop singing. That’ll likely be a sign that tapering is at hand and signal the beginning of a substantial bond correction.<blockquote>对于股票投资者来说，现在不是恐慌的时候。2013年的缩减恐慌并没有导致长期抛售，但对于债券交易员来说，情况就不同了。随着参与/职位空缺差距的缩小，煤矿里的金丝雀可能会停止歌唱。这可能是缩减购债规模即将到来的迹象，也标志着债券大幅调整的开始。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-spot-start-tapering-cycle\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-spot-start-tapering-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126428821","content_text":"Job growth at pre-pandemic levels is the key to the start of tapering, according to Fed Chair Powell. The good news for fixed income traders worried about higher rates and bond bulls is we’re not there yet.\nA good gauge for when we do get there,take a look at the spread between the labor participation rate and job openings (JOLTS).It’s nowhere near pre-pandemic levels. Looking back at where labor and job openings were when the Fed announced tapering in December 2013 serves as a decent indication of what this relationship needs to look like before tapering is a more convincing option for the central bank.\nThe question Fed Chair Powell is asked time and time again and the one he cannot seem to answer is “what does transitory mean and when will inflation point to the beginning of tapering?” The answer is likely not about inflation at all, but jobs. Remember, inflation is transitory for the Fed, or is it?\nTake a look at another metric of jobs returning to pre-pandemic levels: payroll gains and jobless claims. It seems we’re already there and the Fed is indeed behind the curve. It’s likely to fall even further behind once inflation begins to percolate.\nThat means inflation and inflationary expectations are like a spring wound tight. It is only when you reach the tipping point that it unravels. For the Fed, it appears that time is when labor participation increases sufficiently to fill current job openings.\nWe may be closer than we think to that moment. School re-openings and the end of extended jobs benefits is right around the corner. That should produce an increase in the labor participation rate and result in fewer job openings. That’s when the first aforementioned metric may come into play.\nFor equity investors, it’s not a time to panic. The 2013 taper tantrum didn’t produce an extended selloff but it was a different story for bond traders. As the participation/job opening gap closes, the canary in the coal mine may stop singing. That’ll likely be a sign that tapering is at hand and signal the beginning of a substantial bond correction.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":435,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/804723561"}