Getting tougher...._老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-08-02

Getting tougher....

Inflation Is Hot Now, but Investors Are Betting That Won’t Last<blockquote>通货膨胀现在很严重，但投资者押注这种情况不会持续下去</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":805211877,"tweetId":"805211877","gmtCreate":1627882974499,"gmtModify":1633755616369,"author":{"id":3578612626332852,"idStr":"3578612626332852","authorId":3578612626332852,"authorIdStr":"3578612626332852","name":"KRIS0330","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66660a5496fad25bd4bfe7c228b1cef","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Getting tougher....&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Getting tougher....&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Getting tougher....","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805211877","repostId":1149048645,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149048645","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627881957,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149048645?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 13:25","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Inflation Is Hot Now, but Investors Are Betting That Won’t Last<blockquote>通货膨胀现在很严重，但投资者押注这种情况不会持续下去</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149048645","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Investors are betting the inflationary streak that has sent prices of everything from used cars to l","content":"Investors are betting the inflationary streak that has sent prices of everything from used cars to lumber soaring will fade in the coming years, a reassuring sign for markets struggling to find direction.<blockquote>投资者押注，导致从二手车到木材等各种商品价格飙升的通胀趋势将在未来几年消退，这对于努力寻找方向的市场来说是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote> Few issues have vexed money managers more this year than inflation. As the global economy has regained its footing, prices for goods and services have risen—in many casesfar fasterthan economists had anticipated.&nbsp;Labor shortages&nbsp;and&nbsp;supply-chain disruptions&nbsp;snarling the global shipping industry have added to inflationary pressures.<blockquote>今年，很少有问题比通胀更让基金经理烦恼。随着全球经济重新站稳脚跟，商品和服务价格上涨——在许多情况下上涨速度远远快于经济学家的预期。困扰全球航运业的劳动力短缺和供应链中断加剧了通胀压力。</blockquote> The trend has worried many investors, since inflation can chip into&nbsp;companies’ profit margins, pressuring share prices. It can also eat away at the purchasing power of government bonds’ fixed returns. In the days ahead, investors will get a look at fresh economic data including factory orders, vehicle sales and the monthly employment report.<blockquote>这一趋势令许多投资者感到担忧，因为通货膨胀可能会影响公司的利润率，从而给股价带来压力。也能蚕食国债固定收益的购买力。未来几天，投资者将看到最新的经济数据，包括工厂订单、汽车销售和月度就业报告。</blockquote> Yet markets are starting to signal that investors may be growing less fearful.<blockquote>然而，市场开始发出信号，表明投资者可能不再那么恐惧。</blockquote> Take the break-even rate. Calculated by measuring the difference in yields between Treasurys and their inflation-protected counterparts, or TIPS, the break-even rate shows how much inflation traders anticipate over a period of time. Since peaking for the year in May, the break-even rates for five-, seven-, and 10-year Treasurys have all fallen—suggesting traders are pricing in a moderation in inflation in coming years.<blockquote>以盈亏平衡率为例。盈亏平衡率通过衡量美国国债与通胀保值国债（TIPS）之间的收益率差异来计算，显示了交易者在一段时间内预期的通胀程度。自5月份达到年内峰值以来，5年期、7年期和10年期国债的盈亏平衡利率均有所下降，这表明交易员预计未来几年通胀将放缓。</blockquote> Traders expect inflation will be higher in thenext couple of years than in the longer term, adeparture from the past decade.<blockquote>交易员预计，未来几年的通胀率将高于长期水平，与过去十年不同。</blockquote> Break-even inflation rate<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c06c321234ab4172078be469b05f55\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"543\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote>盈亏平衡通货膨胀率</blockquote> Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via St.Louis Fed<blockquote>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行，来自圣路易斯联储</blockquote> In another twist, the five-year break-even rate, which currently trades around 2.58%, has surpassed the 10-year rate, which sits around 2.43%. In contrast, the Labor Department’s main gauge ofconsumer prices jumped 5.4% in Junefrom the 12 months prior—the biggest rise in prices recorded since August 2008.<blockquote>另一个变化是，目前约为2.58%的五年期盈亏平衡利率已超过约为2.43%的10年期盈亏平衡利率。相比之下，劳工部6月份消费者价格主要指标较12个月前上涨5.4%，这是自2008年8月以来的最大价格涨幅。</blockquote> Put in other words: traders know inflation is hot now; but they are betting that price pressures will ease up significantly, not just in the next few years but over the next decade.<blockquote>换句话说：交易者知道现在通胀很热；但他们押注价格压力将显着缓解，不仅是在未来几年，而是在未来十年。</blockquote> “Markets seem to be taking it in stride,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, noting stock indexes from the U.S. to Europe have managed to climb to records in the past month.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)表示：“市场似乎泰然处之。”他指出，从美国到欧洲的股指在过去一个月已成功攀升至创纪录水平。</blockquote> While some of his peers continue to fear inflation will rise at levels that might force the Federal Reserve to step in and sharply rein in its easy-money policies, Mr. Kleintop isn’t as concerned. If there is anything he’s worried about these days, it is that thefast-spreading Delta variantof Covid-19 might wind up disrupting the U.S. recovery.<blockquote>尽管他的一些同行仍然担心通胀将上升到可能迫使美联储介入并大幅控制其宽松货币政策的水平，但克莱恩托普先生并不那么担心。如果说这些天他担心什么的话，那就是快速传播的新冠肺炎三角洲变种可能最终会扰乱美国的复苏。</blockquote> Recent swings in stock and bond markets “seem more driven by prospects for a downturn driven by more [pandemic-related] lockdowns, rather than downturns from withdrawn support from the Fed,” Mr. Kleintop said.<blockquote>克莱因托普表示，最近股票和债券市场的波动“似乎更多地是由更多（与大流行相关的）封锁导致的经济低迷前景驱动的，而不是美联储撤回支持导致的经济低迷”。</blockquote> Economists had expected inflation numbers to be elevated this spring and summer thanks to comparisons to deeply depressed prices a year earlier. But they have far exceeded even those expectations.<blockquote>经济学家此前预计，由于与一年前严重低迷的价格相比，今年春季和夏季的通胀数据将会上升。但他们甚至远远超出了这些预期。</blockquote> In April, May and June, the consumer-price index rose a non-seasonally adjusted 0.9% on average, 0.6 percentage point higher than the average over that period from 2010 through 2019.<blockquote>4月、5月和6月，居民消费价格指数未经季节调整平均上涨0.9%，比2010年至2019年同期平均上涨0.6个百分点。</blockquote> Investors, though, have hardly been rattled.<blockquote>不过，投资者并没有感到惊慌。</blockquote> CPI inflation swaps—derivatives used by traders to make precise inflation bets—indicate investors are looking for just one or two more months of eye-popping inflation, with the non-seasonally adjusted CPI index expected to rise 0.6% in July—a month in which, on average, it didn’t rise at all in the 2010-2019 period. After August, monthly inflation is expected to be only a little above average, though year-over-year readings could still exceed 5% before dropping sharply next year.<blockquote>CPI通胀掉期（交易员用来进行精确通胀押注的衍生品）表明，投资者预计通胀只会再出现一两个月令人瞠目结舌的情况，未经季节性调整的CPI指数预计将在7月份上涨0.6%，平均而言，2010年至2019年期间根本没有上涨。8月份之后，月度通胀率预计仅略高于平均水平，但同比读数仍可能超过5%，然后明年大幅下降。</blockquote> Used cars and trucksplay a major partin investors’ thinking. In June, their prices rose 10.5% from the previous month, driving a third of the rise in overall CPI. Many, though, believe used-car prices could rise more slowly later in the year or even decline, as auto companies ramp up the supply of new cars and consumers start shopping more carefully.<blockquote>二手车和卡车在投资者的思考中发挥着重要作用。6月份，它们的价格环比上涨了10.5%，拉动了整体CPI上涨的三分之一。不过，许多人认为，随着汽车公司增加新车供应以及消费者开始更加谨慎地购物，二手车价格在今年晚些时候可能会上涨放缓，甚至下降。</blockquote> Overall, the consensus on Wall Street is that different supply shortages will, one by one, eventually be resolved; at the same time, consumer demand will normalize as the government sends less money to households with the expiration of coronavirus-relief programs.<blockquote>总体而言，华尔街的共识是，不同的供应短缺最终会一个接一个地得到解决；与此同时，随着冠状病毒救助计划的到期，政府向家庭发放的资金减少，消费者需求将正常化。</blockquote> Markets are saying “yes, we might get some strong inflation, but it’s not likely to be structural inflation,” said Michael Pond, head of global inflation-linked research atBarclays.<blockquote>巴克莱全球通胀相关研究主管迈克尔·庞德表示，市场表示“是的，我们可能会出现一些强劲的通胀，但不太可能是结构性通胀”。</blockquote> Betting on short-term inflation—whether through swaps or off-the-run Treasury-inflation protected securities—has offered unusual opportunities this year. An&nbsp;ICE&nbsp;BofA index of TIPS with remaining maturities of one to nearly five years has returned 4.4% this year, compared with negative 0.1% for non-inflation protected Treasurys of the same maturity range.<blockquote>押注短期通胀——无论是通过掉期还是失控的国债——通胀保值证券——今年提供了不同寻常的机会。ICE美国银行剩余期限为一年至近五年的TIPS指数今年的回报率为4.4%，而相同期限范围的非通胀保值国债的回报率为负0.1%。</blockquote> Holders of TIPS are compensated with additional principal and coupon payments when CPI rises, meaning they outearn holders of nominal Treasurys if inflation exceeds expectations but earn less if prices don’t rise as much as expected.<blockquote>当CPI上涨时，TIPS持有者将获得额外的本金和息票支付，这意味着如果通胀超出预期，他们的收入将超过名义国债持有者，但如果价格涨幅没有预期那么高，他们的收入将会减少。</blockquote> “Short-term TIPS have done incredibly well mainly because the inflation compensation component is very large,” said Gemma Wright-Casparius, senior portfolio manager at Vanguard Group, who leads the firm’s actively managed Treasury and inflation bond funds.<blockquote>先锋集团(Vanguard Group)高级投资组合经理杰玛·赖特-卡斯帕里乌斯(Gemma Wright-Casparius)表示：“短期TIPS表现非常好，主要是因为通胀补偿成分非常大。”他负责该公司的主动管理国债和通胀债券基金。</blockquote> Ms. Wright-Casparius said her team added TIPS to Vanguard’s actively managed Treasury funds last year when inflation expectations were deeply depressed but is now more neutral on inflation, seeing the market as adequately priced for what lies ahead.<blockquote>Wright-Casparius女士表示，去年，当通胀预期严重低迷时，她的团队向先锋集团的主动管理型国债基金添加了TIPS，但现在对通胀更加中性，认为市场对未来的定价已经足够。</blockquote> Some investors and analysts still think high inflation could linger longer than many expect, thanks to both strong consumer demand and continued supply disruptions.<blockquote>一些投资者和分析师仍然认为，由于强劲的消费者需求和持续的供应中断，高通胀持续的时间可能比许多人预期的要长。</blockquote> Even if used-car prices decline, othercategories such as housing&nbsp;could push in the other direction with household balance sheets in their strongest position in decades, said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC.<blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies LLC)首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)表示，即使二手车价格下跌，住房等其他类别也可能会朝着另一个方向发展，家庭资产负债表将处于数十年来最强劲的位置。</blockquote> Long-term inflation expectations have been also closely linked with the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, typically rising whenever it seems the Fed will take a longer time to tighten monetary policy by tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates.<blockquote>长期通胀预期也与美联储政策前景密切相关，每当美联储似乎需要更长时间通过缩减债券购买和加息来收紧货币政策时，通胀预期通常会上升。</blockquote> Just in the past few days, the 10-year break-even rate has ticked higher after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had made no decision about when to start reducing bond purchases and would beunlikely to raise ratesuntil it was done with tapering.<blockquote>就在过去几天，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储尚未就何时开始减少债券购买做出决定，并且在完成缩减购债之前不太可能加息，10年期盈亏平衡利率小幅走高。</blockquote> Still, for many investors, the overall picture looks more benign than it did a few months ago.<blockquote>尽管如此，对于许多投资者来说，整体情况看起来比几个月前更加良性。</blockquote> “Our expectation is that inflation is going to settle into a two to three percent clip. And that’s not bad for the market,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth for Glenmede.<blockquote>Glenmede私人财富首席投资官贾森·普莱德(Jason Pride)表示：“我们的预期是，通胀率将稳定在2%至3%的水平。这对市场来说并不坏。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Is Hot Now, but Investors Are Betting That Won’t Last<blockquote>通货膨胀现在很严重，但投资者押注这种情况不会持续下去</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Is Hot Now, but Investors Are Betting That Won’t Last<blockquote>通货膨胀现在很严重，但投资者押注这种情况不会持续下去</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nThe Wall Street Journal2021-08-02 13:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors are betting the inflationary streak that has sent prices of everything from used cars to lumber soaring will fade in the coming years, a reassuring sign for markets struggling to find direction.<blockquote>投资者押注，导致从二手车到木材等各种商品价格飙升的通胀趋势将在未来几年消退，这对于努力寻找方向的市场来说是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote> Few issues have vexed money managers more this year than inflation. As the global economy has regained its footing, prices for goods and services have risen—in many casesfar fasterthan economists had anticipated.&nbsp;Labor shortages&nbsp;and&nbsp;supply-chain disruptions&nbsp;snarling the global shipping industry have added to inflationary pressures.<blockquote>今年，很少有问题比通胀更让基金经理烦恼。随着全球经济重新站稳脚跟，商品和服务价格上涨——在许多情况下上涨速度远远快于经济学家的预期。困扰全球航运业的劳动力短缺和供应链中断加剧了通胀压力。</blockquote> The trend has worried many investors, since inflation can chip into&nbsp;companies’ profit margins, pressuring share prices. It can also eat away at the purchasing power of government bonds’ fixed returns. In the days ahead, investors will get a look at fresh economic data including factory orders, vehicle sales and the monthly employment report.<blockquote>这一趋势令许多投资者感到担忧，因为通货膨胀可能会影响公司的利润率，从而给股价带来压力。也能蚕食国债固定收益的购买力。未来几天，投资者将看到最新的经济数据，包括工厂订单、汽车销售和月度就业报告。</blockquote> Yet markets are starting to signal that investors may be growing less fearful.<blockquote>然而，市场开始发出信号，表明投资者可能不再那么恐惧。</blockquote> Take the break-even rate. Calculated by measuring the difference in yields between Treasurys and their inflation-protected counterparts, or TIPS, the break-even rate shows how much inflation traders anticipate over a period of time. Since peaking for the year in May, the break-even rates for five-, seven-, and 10-year Treasurys have all fallen—suggesting traders are pricing in a moderation in inflation in coming years.<blockquote>以盈亏平衡率为例。盈亏平衡率通过衡量美国国债与通胀保值国债（TIPS）之间的收益率差异来计算，显示了交易者在一段时间内预期的通胀程度。自5月份达到年内峰值以来，5年期、7年期和10年期国债的盈亏平衡利率均有所下降，这表明交易员预计未来几年通胀将放缓。</blockquote> Traders expect inflation will be higher in thenext couple of years than in the longer term, adeparture from the past decade.<blockquote>交易员预计，未来几年的通胀率将高于长期水平，与过去十年不同。</blockquote> Break-even inflation rate<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c06c321234ab4172078be469b05f55\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"543\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote>盈亏平衡通货膨胀率</blockquote> Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via St.Louis Fed<blockquote>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行，来自圣路易斯联储</blockquote> In another twist, the five-year break-even rate, which currently trades around 2.58%, has surpassed the 10-year rate, which sits around 2.43%. In contrast, the Labor Department’s main gauge ofconsumer prices jumped 5.4% in Junefrom the 12 months prior—the biggest rise in prices recorded since August 2008.<blockquote>另一个变化是，目前约为2.58%的五年期盈亏平衡利率已超过约为2.43%的10年期盈亏平衡利率。相比之下，劳工部6月份消费者价格主要指标较12个月前上涨5.4%，这是自2008年8月以来的最大价格涨幅。</blockquote> Put in other words: traders know inflation is hot now; but they are betting that price pressures will ease up significantly, not just in the next few years but over the next decade.<blockquote>换句话说：交易者知道现在通胀很热；但他们押注价格压力将显着缓解，不仅是在未来几年，而是在未来十年。</blockquote> “Markets seem to be taking it in stride,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, noting stock indexes from the U.S. to Europe have managed to climb to records in the past month.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)表示：“市场似乎泰然处之。”他指出，从美国到欧洲的股指在过去一个月已成功攀升至创纪录水平。</blockquote> While some of his peers continue to fear inflation will rise at levels that might force the Federal Reserve to step in and sharply rein in its easy-money policies, Mr. Kleintop isn’t as concerned. If there is anything he’s worried about these days, it is that thefast-spreading Delta variantof Covid-19 might wind up disrupting the U.S. recovery.<blockquote>尽管他的一些同行仍然担心通胀将上升到可能迫使美联储介入并大幅控制其宽松货币政策的水平，但克莱恩托普先生并不那么担心。如果说这些天他担心什么的话，那就是快速传播的新冠肺炎三角洲变种可能最终会扰乱美国的复苏。</blockquote> Recent swings in stock and bond markets “seem more driven by prospects for a downturn driven by more [pandemic-related] lockdowns, rather than downturns from withdrawn support from the Fed,” Mr. Kleintop said.<blockquote>克莱因托普表示，最近股票和债券市场的波动“似乎更多地是由更多（与大流行相关的）封锁导致的经济低迷前景驱动的，而不是美联储撤回支持导致的经济低迷”。</blockquote> Economists had expected inflation numbers to be elevated this spring and summer thanks to comparisons to deeply depressed prices a year earlier. But they have far exceeded even those expectations.<blockquote>经济学家此前预计，由于与一年前严重低迷的价格相比，今年春季和夏季的通胀数据将会上升。但他们甚至远远超出了这些预期。</blockquote> In April, May and June, the consumer-price index rose a non-seasonally adjusted 0.9% on average, 0.6 percentage point higher than the average over that period from 2010 through 2019.<blockquote>4月、5月和6月，居民消费价格指数未经季节调整平均上涨0.9%，比2010年至2019年同期平均上涨0.6个百分点。</blockquote> Investors, though, have hardly been rattled.<blockquote>不过，投资者并没有感到惊慌。</blockquote> CPI inflation swaps—derivatives used by traders to make precise inflation bets—indicate investors are looking for just one or two more months of eye-popping inflation, with the non-seasonally adjusted CPI index expected to rise 0.6% in July—a month in which, on average, it didn’t rise at all in the 2010-2019 period. After August, monthly inflation is expected to be only a little above average, though year-over-year readings could still exceed 5% before dropping sharply next year.<blockquote>CPI通胀掉期（交易员用来进行精确通胀押注的衍生品）表明，投资者预计通胀只会再出现一两个月令人瞠目结舌的情况，未经季节性调整的CPI指数预计将在7月份上涨0.6%，平均而言，2010年至2019年期间根本没有上涨。8月份之后，月度通胀率预计仅略高于平均水平，但同比读数仍可能超过5%，然后明年大幅下降。</blockquote> Used cars and trucksplay a major partin investors’ thinking. In June, their prices rose 10.5% from the previous month, driving a third of the rise in overall CPI. Many, though, believe used-car prices could rise more slowly later in the year or even decline, as auto companies ramp up the supply of new cars and consumers start shopping more carefully.<blockquote>二手车和卡车在投资者的思考中发挥着重要作用。6月份，它们的价格环比上涨了10.5%，拉动了整体CPI上涨的三分之一。不过，许多人认为，随着汽车公司增加新车供应以及消费者开始更加谨慎地购物，二手车价格在今年晚些时候可能会上涨放缓，甚至下降。</blockquote> Overall, the consensus on Wall Street is that different supply shortages will, one by one, eventually be resolved; at the same time, consumer demand will normalize as the government sends less money to households with the expiration of coronavirus-relief programs.<blockquote>总体而言，华尔街的共识是，不同的供应短缺最终会一个接一个地得到解决；与此同时，随着冠状病毒救助计划的到期，政府向家庭发放的资金减少，消费者需求将正常化。</blockquote> Markets are saying “yes, we might get some strong inflation, but it’s not likely to be structural inflation,” said Michael Pond, head of global inflation-linked research atBarclays.<blockquote>巴克莱全球通胀相关研究主管迈克尔·庞德表示，市场表示“是的，我们可能会出现一些强劲的通胀，但不太可能是结构性通胀”。</blockquote> Betting on short-term inflation—whether through swaps or off-the-run Treasury-inflation protected securities—has offered unusual opportunities this year. An&nbsp;ICE&nbsp;BofA index of TIPS with remaining maturities of one to nearly five years has returned 4.4% this year, compared with negative 0.1% for non-inflation protected Treasurys of the same maturity range.<blockquote>押注短期通胀——无论是通过掉期还是失控的国债——通胀保值证券——今年提供了不同寻常的机会。ICE美国银行剩余期限为一年至近五年的TIPS指数今年的回报率为4.4%，而相同期限范围的非通胀保值国债的回报率为负0.1%。</blockquote> Holders of TIPS are compensated with additional principal and coupon payments when CPI rises, meaning they outearn holders of nominal Treasurys if inflation exceeds expectations but earn less if prices don’t rise as much as expected.<blockquote>当CPI上涨时，TIPS持有者将获得额外的本金和息票支付，这意味着如果通胀超出预期，他们的收入将超过名义国债持有者，但如果价格涨幅没有预期那么高，他们的收入将会减少。</blockquote> “Short-term TIPS have done incredibly well mainly because the inflation compensation component is very large,” said Gemma Wright-Casparius, senior portfolio manager at Vanguard Group, who leads the firm’s actively managed Treasury and inflation bond funds.<blockquote>先锋集团(Vanguard Group)高级投资组合经理杰玛·赖特-卡斯帕里乌斯(Gemma Wright-Casparius)表示：“短期TIPS表现非常好，主要是因为通胀补偿成分非常大。”他负责该公司的主动管理国债和通胀债券基金。</blockquote> Ms. Wright-Casparius said her team added TIPS to Vanguard’s actively managed Treasury funds last year when inflation expectations were deeply depressed but is now more neutral on inflation, seeing the market as adequately priced for what lies ahead.<blockquote>Wright-Casparius女士表示，去年，当通胀预期严重低迷时，她的团队向先锋集团的主动管理型国债基金添加了TIPS，但现在对通胀更加中性，认为市场对未来的定价已经足够。</blockquote> Some investors and analysts still think high inflation could linger longer than many expect, thanks to both strong consumer demand and continued supply disruptions.<blockquote>一些投资者和分析师仍然认为，由于强劲的消费者需求和持续的供应中断，高通胀持续的时间可能比许多人预期的要长。</blockquote> Even if used-car prices decline, othercategories such as housing&nbsp;could push in the other direction with household balance sheets in their strongest position in decades, said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC.<blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies LLC)首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)表示，即使二手车价格下跌，住房等其他类别也可能会朝着另一个方向发展，家庭资产负债表将处于数十年来最强劲的位置。</blockquote> Long-term inflation expectations have been also closely linked with the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, typically rising whenever it seems the Fed will take a longer time to tighten monetary policy by tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates.<blockquote>长期通胀预期也与美联储政策前景密切相关，每当美联储似乎需要更长时间通过缩减债券购买和加息来收紧货币政策时，通胀预期通常会上升。</blockquote> Just in the past few days, the 10-year break-even rate has ticked higher after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had made no decision about when to start reducing bond purchases and would beunlikely to raise ratesuntil it was done with tapering.<blockquote>就在过去几天，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储尚未就何时开始减少债券购买做出决定，并且在完成缩减购债之前不太可能加息，10年期盈亏平衡利率小幅走高。</blockquote> Still, for many investors, the overall picture looks more benign than it did a few months ago.<blockquote>尽管如此，对于许多投资者来说，整体情况看起来比几个月前更加良性。</blockquote> “Our expectation is that inflation is going to settle into a two to three percent clip. And that’s not bad for the market,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth for Glenmede.<blockquote>Glenmede私人财富首席投资官贾森·普莱德(Jason Pride)表示：“我们的预期是，通胀率将稳定在2%至3%的水平。这对市场来说并不坏。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-is-hot-now-but-investors-are-betting-that-wont-last-11627810380?mod=hp_lead_pos1\">The Wall Street Journal</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-is-hot-now-but-investors-are-betting-that-wont-last-11627810380?mod=hp_lead_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149048645","content_text":"Investors are betting the inflationary streak that has sent prices of everything from used cars to lumber soaring will fade in the coming years, a reassuring sign for markets struggling to find direction.\nFew issues have vexed money managers more this year than inflation. As the global economy has regained its footing, prices for goods and services have risen—in many casesfar fasterthan economists had anticipated. Labor shortages and supply-chain disruptions snarling the global shipping industry have added to inflationary pressures.\nThe trend has worried many investors, since inflation can chip into companies’ profit margins, pressuring share prices. It can also eat away at the purchasing power of government bonds’ fixed returns. In the days ahead, investors will get a look at fresh economic data including factory orders, vehicle sales and the monthly employment report.\nYet markets are starting to signal that investors may be growing less fearful.\nTake the break-even rate. Calculated by measuring the difference in yields between Treasurys and their inflation-protected counterparts, or TIPS, the break-even rate shows how much inflation traders anticipate over a period of time. Since peaking for the year in May, the break-even rates for five-, seven-, and 10-year Treasurys have all fallen—suggesting traders are pricing in a moderation in inflation in coming years.\nTraders expect inflation will be higher in thenext couple of years than in the longer term, adeparture from the past decade.\nBreak-even inflation rate\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via St.Louis Fed\nIn another twist, the five-year break-even rate, which currently trades around 2.58%, has surpassed the 10-year rate, which sits around 2.43%. In contrast, the Labor Department’s main gauge ofconsumer prices jumped 5.4% in Junefrom the 12 months prior—the biggest rise in prices recorded since August 2008.\nPut in other words: traders know inflation is hot now; but they are betting that price pressures will ease up significantly, not just in the next few years but over the next decade.\n“Markets seem to be taking it in stride,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, noting stock indexes from the U.S. to Europe have managed to climb to records in the past month.\nWhile some of his peers continue to fear inflation will rise at levels that might force the Federal Reserve to step in and sharply rein in its easy-money policies, Mr. Kleintop isn’t as concerned. If there is anything he’s worried about these days, it is that thefast-spreading Delta variantof Covid-19 might wind up disrupting the U.S. recovery.\nRecent swings in stock and bond markets “seem more driven by prospects for a downturn driven by more [pandemic-related] lockdowns, rather than downturns from withdrawn support from the Fed,” Mr. Kleintop said.\nEconomists had expected inflation numbers to be elevated this spring and summer thanks to comparisons to deeply depressed prices a year earlier. But they have far exceeded even those expectations.\nIn April, May and June, the consumer-price index rose a non-seasonally adjusted 0.9% on average, 0.6 percentage point higher than the average over that period from 2010 through 2019.\nInvestors, though, have hardly been rattled.\nCPI inflation swaps—derivatives used by traders to make precise inflation bets—indicate investors are looking for just one or two more months of eye-popping inflation, with the non-seasonally adjusted CPI index expected to rise 0.6% in July—a month in which, on average, it didn’t rise at all in the 2010-2019 period. After August, monthly inflation is expected to be only a little above average, though year-over-year readings could still exceed 5% before dropping sharply next year.\nUsed cars and trucksplay a major partin investors’ thinking. In June, their prices rose 10.5% from the previous month, driving a third of the rise in overall CPI. Many, though, believe used-car prices could rise more slowly later in the year or even decline, as auto companies ramp up the supply of new cars and consumers start shopping more carefully.\nOverall, the consensus on Wall Street is that different supply shortages will, one by one, eventually be resolved; at the same time, consumer demand will normalize as the government sends less money to households with the expiration of coronavirus-relief programs.\nMarkets are saying “yes, we might get some strong inflation, but it’s not likely to be structural inflation,” said Michael Pond, head of global inflation-linked research atBarclays.\nBetting on short-term inflation—whether through swaps or off-the-run Treasury-inflation protected securities—has offered unusual opportunities this year. An ICE BofA index of TIPS with remaining maturities of one to nearly five years has returned 4.4% this year, compared with negative 0.1% for non-inflation protected Treasurys of the same maturity range.\nHolders of TIPS are compensated with additional principal and coupon payments when CPI rises, meaning they outearn holders of nominal Treasurys if inflation exceeds expectations but earn less if prices don’t rise as much as expected.\n“Short-term TIPS have done incredibly well mainly because the inflation compensation component is very large,” said Gemma Wright-Casparius, senior portfolio manager at Vanguard Group, who leads the firm’s actively managed Treasury and inflation bond funds.\nMs. Wright-Casparius said her team added TIPS to Vanguard’s actively managed Treasury funds last year when inflation expectations were deeply depressed but is now more neutral on inflation, seeing the market as adequately priced for what lies ahead.\nSome investors and analysts still think high inflation could linger longer than many expect, thanks to both strong consumer demand and continued supply disruptions.\nEven if used-car prices decline, othercategories such as housing could push in the other direction with household balance sheets in their strongest position in decades, said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC.\nLong-term inflation expectations have been also closely linked with the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, typically rising whenever it seems the Fed will take a longer time to tighten monetary policy by tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates.\nJust in the past few days, the 10-year break-even rate has ticked higher after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had made no decision about when to start reducing bond purchases and would beunlikely to raise ratesuntil it was done with tapering.\nStill, for many investors, the overall picture looks more benign than it did a few months ago.\n“Our expectation is that inflation is going to settle into a two to three percent clip. And that’s not bad for the market,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth for Glenmede.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":18,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/805211877"}