KRIS0330
2021-08-02
Getting tougher....
Inflation Is Hot Now, but Investors Are Betting That Won’t Last<blockquote>通货膨胀现在很热，但投资者押注这种情况不会持续太久</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
1
5
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":805211877,"tweetId":"805211877","gmtCreate":1627882974499,"gmtModify":1633755616369,"author":{"id":3578612626332852,"idStr":"3578612626332852","authorId":3578612626332852,"authorIdStr":"3578612626332852","name":"KRIS0330","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66660a5496fad25bd4bfe7c228b1cef","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Getting tougher.... </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Getting tougher.... </p></body></html>","text":"Getting tougher....","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805211877","repostId":1149048645,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149048645","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627881957,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149048645?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 13:25","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Inflation Is Hot Now, but Investors Are Betting That Won’t Last<blockquote>通货膨胀现在很热，但投资者押注这种情况不会持续太久</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149048645","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Investors are betting the inflationary streak that has sent prices of everything from used cars to l","content":"<p>Investors are betting the inflationary streak that has sent prices of everything from used cars to lumber soaring will fade in the coming years, a reassuring sign for markets struggling to find direction.</p><p><blockquote>投资者押注，导致从二手车到木材等各种商品价格飙升的通货膨胀趋势将在未来几年消退，这对于努力寻找方向的市场来说是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Few issues have vexed money managers more this year than inflation. As the global economy has regained its footing, prices for goods and services have risen—in many casesfar fasterthan economists had anticipated. Labor shortages and supply-chain disruptions snarling the global shipping industry have added to inflationary pressures.</p><p><blockquote>今年，很少有问题比通货膨胀更困扰基金经理了。随着全球经济重新站稳脚跟，商品和服务价格上涨——在许多情况下，上涨速度远远超过经济学家的预期。劳动力短缺和供应链中断困扰着全球航运业，加剧了通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> The trend has worried many investors, since inflation can chip into companies’ profit margins, pressuring share prices. It can also eat away at the purchasing power of government bonds’ fixed returns. In the days ahead, investors will get a look at fresh economic data including factory orders, vehicle sales and the monthly employment report.</p><p><blockquote>这一趋势令许多投资者感到担忧，因为通货膨胀会侵蚀公司的利润率，给股价带来压力。它还会蚕食政府债券固定收益的购买力。未来几天，投资者将看到新的经济数据，包括工厂订单、汽车销量和月度就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> Yet markets are starting to signal that investors may be growing less fearful.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场开始发出信号，表明投资者的恐惧可能会越来越少。</blockquote></p><p> Take the break-even rate. Calculated by measuring the difference in yields between Treasurys and their inflation-protected counterparts, or TIPS, the break-even rate shows how much inflation traders anticipate over a period of time. Since peaking for the year in May, the break-even rates for five-, seven-, and 10-year Treasurys have all fallen—suggesting traders are pricing in a moderation in inflation in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>以盈亏平衡率为例。盈亏平衡利率是通过衡量美国国债与其通胀保值国债（TIPS）之间的收益率差异计算得出的，它显示了交易者对一段时间内通胀的预期。自 5 月份达到年内峰值以来，5 年期、7 年期和 10 年期国债的盈亏平衡利率均有所下降，这表明交易员预计未来几年通胀将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Traders expect inflation will be higher in thenext couple of years than in the longer term, adeparture from the past decade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>交易员预计未来几年通胀将高于长期，这与过去十年有所不同。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Break-even inflation rate</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c06c321234ab4172078be469b05f55\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"543\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><b>盈亏平衡通货膨胀率</b></blockquote></p><p> Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via St.Louis Fed</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行通过圣路易斯联储</blockquote></p><p> In another twist, the five-year break-even rate, which currently trades around 2.58%, has surpassed the 10-year rate, which sits around 2.43%. In contrast, the Labor Department’s main gauge ofconsumer prices jumped 5.4% in Junefrom the 12 months prior—the biggest rise in prices recorded since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>另一个转折是，目前约为 2.58% 的五年期收支平衡利率已经超过了 2.43% 左右的 10 年期收支平衡利率。相比之下，劳工部衡量消费者价格的主要指标 6 月份比前 12 个月跃升了 5.4%，这是自 2008 年 8 月以来的最大价格涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Put in other words: traders know inflation is hot now; but they are betting that price pressures will ease up significantly, not just in the next few years but over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说：交易员知道现在通胀很热；但他们押注价格压力将显著缓解，不仅是在未来几年，而是在未来十年。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets seem to be taking it in stride,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, noting stock indexes from the U.S. to Europe have managed to climb to records in the past month.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席全球投资策略师杰弗里-克莱因托普（Jeffrey Kleintop）说：“市场似乎正在泰然处之，”他指出，从美国到欧洲的股指在过去一个月里都成功攀升至历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While some of his peers continue to fear inflation will rise at levels that might force the Federal Reserve to step in and sharply rein in its easy-money policies, Mr. Kleintop isn’t as concerned. If there is anything he’s worried about these days, it is that thefast-spreading Delta variantof Covid-19 might wind up disrupting the U.S. recovery.</p><p><blockquote>虽然他的一些同行仍然担心通胀会上升到可能迫使美联储介入并大幅收紧宽松货币政策的水平，但克莱因托普先生并不那么担心。如果说他最近有什么担心的话，那就是迅速传播的 Covid-19 三角洲变种可能会扰乱美国的复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Recent swings in stock and bond markets “seem more driven by prospects for a downturn driven by more [pandemic-related] lockdowns, rather than downturns from withdrawn support from the Fed,” Mr. Kleintop said.</p><p><blockquote>克莱因托普先生说，最近股票和债券市场的波动 “似乎更多是由更多（与大流行病相关的）封锁导致的经济衰退前景驱动的，而不是美联储撤回支持导致的经济衰退”。</blockquote></p><p> Economists had expected inflation numbers to be elevated this spring and summer thanks to comparisons to deeply depressed prices a year earlier. But they have far exceeded even those expectations.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家此前预计，由于与一年前严重低迷的物价相比，今年春季和夏季的通胀数据将会上升。但它们甚至远远超出了这些预期。</blockquote></p><p> In April, May and June, the consumer-price index rose a non-seasonally adjusted 0.9% on average, 0.6 percentage point higher than the average over that period from 2010 through 2019.</p><p><blockquote>4月、5月和6月，未经季节性调整的居民消费价格指数平均上涨0.9%，高于2010年至2019年同期平均水平0.6个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, though, have hardly been rattled.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者几乎没有感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> CPI inflation swaps—derivatives used by traders to make precise inflation bets—indicate investors are looking for just one or two more months of eye-popping inflation, with the non-seasonally adjusted CPI index expected to rise 0.6% in July—a month in which, on average, it didn’t rise at all in the 2010-2019 period. After August, monthly inflation is expected to be only a little above average, though year-over-year readings could still exceed 5% before dropping sharply next year.</p><p><blockquote>CPI 通胀掉期--交易员用来进行精确通胀押注的衍生品--表明投资者只需要再看到一两个月令人瞠目的通胀，未经季节性调整的 CPI 指数预计将在 7 月份上涨 0.6%--在 2010-2019 年期间，CPI 指数的平均涨幅为 0.6%。8 月份之后，月度通胀率预计仅略高于平均水平，但同比读数仍可能超过 5%，然后明年将大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> Used cars and trucksplay a major partin investors’ thinking. In June, their prices rose 10.5% from the previous month, driving a third of the rise in overall CPI. Many, though, believe used-car prices could rise more slowly later in the year or even decline, as auto companies ramp up the supply of new cars and consumers start shopping more carefully.</p><p><blockquote>二手车和卡车是投资者思考的重要组成部分。6月份，它们的价格比上月上涨了10.5%，推动了整体CPI涨幅的三分之一。不过，许多人认为，随着汽车公司增加新车供应以及消费者开始更加谨慎地购物，二手车价格可能会在今年晚些时候上涨得更慢，甚至下降。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the consensus on Wall Street is that different supply shortages will, one by one, eventually be resolved; at the same time, consumer demand will normalize as the government sends less money to households with the expiration of coronavirus-relief programs.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，华尔街的共识是，不同的供应短缺问题最终会逐一得到解决；与此同时，随着冠状病毒救助计划的到期，政府向家庭发放的资金减少，消费者需求将恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are saying “yes, we might get some strong inflation, but it’s not likely to be structural inflation,” said Michael Pond, head of global inflation-linked research atBarclays.</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱银行（Barclays）全球通胀相关研究主管迈克尔-庞德（Michael Pond）说：“是的，我们可能会出现一些强劲的通胀，但不太可能是结构性通胀。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Betting on short-term inflation—whether through swaps or off-the-run Treasury-inflation protected securities—has offered unusual opportunities this year. An ICE BofA index of TIPS with remaining maturities of one to nearly five years has returned 4.4% this year, compared with negative 0.1% for non-inflation protected Treasurys of the same maturity range.</p><p><blockquote>押注短期通胀——无论是通过掉期还是停产的国债通胀保值证券——今年都提供了不同寻常的机会。剩余期限为一至近五年的 ICE BofA TIPS 指数今年的回报率为 4.4%，而相同期限范围的非通胀保值国债的回报率为负 0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Holders of TIPS are compensated with additional principal and coupon payments when CPI rises, meaning they outearn holders of nominal Treasurys if inflation exceeds expectations but earn less if prices don’t rise as much as expected.</p><p><blockquote>当 CPI 上升时，TIPS 持有者将获得额外的本金和息票支付补偿，这意味着如果通货膨胀超出预期，他们的收入将超过名义国债持有者，但如果价格上涨幅度不如预期，他们的收入将减少。</blockquote></p><p> “Short-term TIPS have done incredibly well mainly because the inflation compensation component is very large,” said Gemma Wright-Casparius, senior portfolio manager at Vanguard Group, who leads the firm’s actively managed Treasury and inflation bond funds.</p><p><blockquote>“先锋集团（Vanguard Group）高级投资组合经理杰玛-赖特-卡斯帕里乌斯（Gemma Wright-Casparius）说：”短期TIPS的表现令人难以置信，主要是因为通胀补偿部分非常大。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Wright-Casparius said her team added TIPS to Vanguard’s actively managed Treasury funds last year when inflation expectations were deeply depressed but is now more neutral on inflation, seeing the market as adequately priced for what lies ahead.</p><p><blockquote>Wright-Casparius 女士说，去年通胀预期严重低迷时，她的团队在先锋集团的主动管理国库基金中增加了提示，但现在对通胀更加中性，认为市场对未来的定价充足。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors and analysts still think high inflation could linger longer than many expect, thanks to both strong consumer demand and continued supply disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者和分析师仍然认为，由于强劲的消费者需求和持续的供应中断，高通胀可能会比许多人预期的持续时间更长。</blockquote></p><p> Even if used-car prices decline, othercategories such as housing could push in the other direction with household balance sheets in their strongest position in decades, said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies LLC 首席经济学家 Aneta Markowska 表示，即使二手车价格下跌，住房等其他类别也可能会朝另一个方向发展，家庭资产负债表处于几十年来最强劲的位置。</blockquote></p><p> Long-term inflation expectations have been also closely linked with the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, typically rising whenever it seems the Fed will take a longer time to tighten monetary policy by tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>长期通胀预期也与美联储政策前景密切相关，每当美联储似乎需要更长时间通过缩减债券购买和加息来收紧货币政策时，通胀预期通常就会上升。</blockquote></p><p> Just in the past few days, the 10-year break-even rate has ticked higher after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had made no decision about when to start reducing bond purchases and would beunlikely to raise ratesuntil it was done with tapering.</p><p><blockquote>就在过去几天，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储尚未决定何时开始减少债券购买，并且很可能会加息，直到完成缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> Still, for many investors, the overall picture looks more benign than it did a few months ago.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，对于许多投资者来说，总体情况看起来比几个月前更加温和。</blockquote></p><p> “Our expectation is that inflation is going to settle into a two to three percent clip. And that’s not bad for the market,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth for Glenmede.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计通胀率将稳定在 2% 到 3% 的水平。这对市场来说并不坏，”Glenmede 私人财富公司首席投资官杰森-普莱德（Jason Pride）说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Is Hot Now, but Investors Are Betting That Won’t Last<blockquote>通货膨胀现在很热，但投资者押注这种情况不会持续太久</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Is Hot Now, but Investors Are Betting That Won’t Last<blockquote>通货膨胀现在很热，但投资者押注这种情况不会持续太久</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 13:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors are betting the inflationary streak that has sent prices of everything from used cars to lumber soaring will fade in the coming years, a reassuring sign for markets struggling to find direction.</p><p><blockquote>投资者押注，导致从二手车到木材等各种商品价格飙升的通货膨胀趋势将在未来几年消退，这对于努力寻找方向的市场来说是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Few issues have vexed money managers more this year than inflation. As the global economy has regained its footing, prices for goods and services have risen—in many casesfar fasterthan economists had anticipated. Labor shortages and supply-chain disruptions snarling the global shipping industry have added to inflationary pressures.</p><p><blockquote>今年，很少有问题比通货膨胀更困扰基金经理了。随着全球经济重新站稳脚跟，商品和服务价格上涨——在许多情况下，上涨速度远远超过经济学家的预期。劳动力短缺和供应链中断困扰着全球航运业，加剧了通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> The trend has worried many investors, since inflation can chip into companies’ profit margins, pressuring share prices. It can also eat away at the purchasing power of government bonds’ fixed returns. In the days ahead, investors will get a look at fresh economic data including factory orders, vehicle sales and the monthly employment report.</p><p><blockquote>这一趋势令许多投资者感到担忧，因为通货膨胀会侵蚀公司的利润率，给股价带来压力。它还会蚕食政府债券固定收益的购买力。未来几天，投资者将看到新的经济数据，包括工厂订单、汽车销量和月度就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> Yet markets are starting to signal that investors may be growing less fearful.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场开始发出信号，表明投资者的恐惧可能会越来越少。</blockquote></p><p> Take the break-even rate. Calculated by measuring the difference in yields between Treasurys and their inflation-protected counterparts, or TIPS, the break-even rate shows how much inflation traders anticipate over a period of time. Since peaking for the year in May, the break-even rates for five-, seven-, and 10-year Treasurys have all fallen—suggesting traders are pricing in a moderation in inflation in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>以盈亏平衡率为例。盈亏平衡利率是通过衡量美国国债与其通胀保值国债（TIPS）之间的收益率差异计算得出的，它显示了交易者对一段时间内通胀的预期。自 5 月份达到年内峰值以来，5 年期、7 年期和 10 年期国债的盈亏平衡利率均有所下降，这表明交易员预计未来几年通胀将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Traders expect inflation will be higher in thenext couple of years than in the longer term, adeparture from the past decade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>交易员预计未来几年通胀将高于长期，这与过去十年有所不同。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Break-even inflation rate</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c06c321234ab4172078be469b05f55\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"543\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><b>盈亏平衡通货膨胀率</b></blockquote></p><p> Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via St.Louis Fed</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行通过圣路易斯联储</blockquote></p><p> In another twist, the five-year break-even rate, which currently trades around 2.58%, has surpassed the 10-year rate, which sits around 2.43%. In contrast, the Labor Department’s main gauge ofconsumer prices jumped 5.4% in Junefrom the 12 months prior—the biggest rise in prices recorded since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>另一个转折是，目前约为 2.58% 的五年期收支平衡利率已经超过了 2.43% 左右的 10 年期收支平衡利率。相比之下，劳工部衡量消费者价格的主要指标 6 月份比前 12 个月跃升了 5.4%，这是自 2008 年 8 月以来的最大价格涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Put in other words: traders know inflation is hot now; but they are betting that price pressures will ease up significantly, not just in the next few years but over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说：交易员知道现在通胀很热；但他们押注价格压力将显著缓解，不仅是在未来几年，而是在未来十年。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets seem to be taking it in stride,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, noting stock indexes from the U.S. to Europe have managed to climb to records in the past month.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席全球投资策略师杰弗里-克莱因托普（Jeffrey Kleintop）说：“市场似乎正在泰然处之，”他指出，从美国到欧洲的股指在过去一个月里都成功攀升至历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While some of his peers continue to fear inflation will rise at levels that might force the Federal Reserve to step in and sharply rein in its easy-money policies, Mr. Kleintop isn’t as concerned. If there is anything he’s worried about these days, it is that thefast-spreading Delta variantof Covid-19 might wind up disrupting the U.S. recovery.</p><p><blockquote>虽然他的一些同行仍然担心通胀会上升到可能迫使美联储介入并大幅收紧宽松货币政策的水平，但克莱因托普先生并不那么担心。如果说他最近有什么担心的话，那就是迅速传播的 Covid-19 三角洲变种可能会扰乱美国的复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Recent swings in stock and bond markets “seem more driven by prospects for a downturn driven by more [pandemic-related] lockdowns, rather than downturns from withdrawn support from the Fed,” Mr. Kleintop said.</p><p><blockquote>克莱因托普先生说，最近股票和债券市场的波动 “似乎更多是由更多（与大流行病相关的）封锁导致的经济衰退前景驱动的，而不是美联储撤回支持导致的经济衰退”。</blockquote></p><p> Economists had expected inflation numbers to be elevated this spring and summer thanks to comparisons to deeply depressed prices a year earlier. But they have far exceeded even those expectations.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家此前预计，由于与一年前严重低迷的物价相比，今年春季和夏季的通胀数据将会上升。但它们甚至远远超出了这些预期。</blockquote></p><p> In April, May and June, the consumer-price index rose a non-seasonally adjusted 0.9% on average, 0.6 percentage point higher than the average over that period from 2010 through 2019.</p><p><blockquote>4月、5月和6月，未经季节性调整的居民消费价格指数平均上涨0.9%，高于2010年至2019年同期平均水平0.6个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, though, have hardly been rattled.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者几乎没有感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> CPI inflation swaps—derivatives used by traders to make precise inflation bets—indicate investors are looking for just one or two more months of eye-popping inflation, with the non-seasonally adjusted CPI index expected to rise 0.6% in July—a month in which, on average, it didn’t rise at all in the 2010-2019 period. After August, monthly inflation is expected to be only a little above average, though year-over-year readings could still exceed 5% before dropping sharply next year.</p><p><blockquote>CPI 通胀掉期--交易员用来进行精确通胀押注的衍生品--表明投资者只需要再看到一两个月令人瞠目的通胀，未经季节性调整的 CPI 指数预计将在 7 月份上涨 0.6%--在 2010-2019 年期间，CPI 指数的平均涨幅为 0.6%。8 月份之后，月度通胀率预计仅略高于平均水平，但同比读数仍可能超过 5%，然后明年将大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> Used cars and trucksplay a major partin investors’ thinking. In June, their prices rose 10.5% from the previous month, driving a third of the rise in overall CPI. Many, though, believe used-car prices could rise more slowly later in the year or even decline, as auto companies ramp up the supply of new cars and consumers start shopping more carefully.</p><p><blockquote>二手车和卡车是投资者思考的重要组成部分。6月份，它们的价格比上月上涨了10.5%，推动了整体CPI涨幅的三分之一。不过，许多人认为，随着汽车公司增加新车供应以及消费者开始更加谨慎地购物，二手车价格可能会在今年晚些时候上涨得更慢，甚至下降。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the consensus on Wall Street is that different supply shortages will, one by one, eventually be resolved; at the same time, consumer demand will normalize as the government sends less money to households with the expiration of coronavirus-relief programs.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，华尔街的共识是，不同的供应短缺问题最终会逐一得到解决；与此同时，随着冠状病毒救助计划的到期，政府向家庭发放的资金减少，消费者需求将恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are saying “yes, we might get some strong inflation, but it’s not likely to be structural inflation,” said Michael Pond, head of global inflation-linked research atBarclays.</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱银行（Barclays）全球通胀相关研究主管迈克尔-庞德（Michael Pond）说：“是的，我们可能会出现一些强劲的通胀，但不太可能是结构性通胀。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Betting on short-term inflation—whether through swaps or off-the-run Treasury-inflation protected securities—has offered unusual opportunities this year. An ICE BofA index of TIPS with remaining maturities of one to nearly five years has returned 4.4% this year, compared with negative 0.1% for non-inflation protected Treasurys of the same maturity range.</p><p><blockquote>押注短期通胀——无论是通过掉期还是停产的国债通胀保值证券——今年都提供了不同寻常的机会。剩余期限为一至近五年的 ICE BofA TIPS 指数今年的回报率为 4.4%，而相同期限范围的非通胀保值国债的回报率为负 0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Holders of TIPS are compensated with additional principal and coupon payments when CPI rises, meaning they outearn holders of nominal Treasurys if inflation exceeds expectations but earn less if prices don’t rise as much as expected.</p><p><blockquote>当 CPI 上升时，TIPS 持有者将获得额外的本金和息票支付补偿，这意味着如果通货膨胀超出预期，他们的收入将超过名义国债持有者，但如果价格上涨幅度不如预期，他们的收入将减少。</blockquote></p><p> “Short-term TIPS have done incredibly well mainly because the inflation compensation component is very large,” said Gemma Wright-Casparius, senior portfolio manager at Vanguard Group, who leads the firm’s actively managed Treasury and inflation bond funds.</p><p><blockquote>“先锋集团（Vanguard Group）高级投资组合经理杰玛-赖特-卡斯帕里乌斯（Gemma Wright-Casparius）说：”短期TIPS的表现令人难以置信，主要是因为通胀补偿部分非常大。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Wright-Casparius said her team added TIPS to Vanguard’s actively managed Treasury funds last year when inflation expectations were deeply depressed but is now more neutral on inflation, seeing the market as adequately priced for what lies ahead.</p><p><blockquote>Wright-Casparius 女士说，去年通胀预期严重低迷时，她的团队在先锋集团的主动管理国库基金中增加了提示，但现在对通胀更加中性，认为市场对未来的定价充足。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors and analysts still think high inflation could linger longer than many expect, thanks to both strong consumer demand and continued supply disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者和分析师仍然认为，由于强劲的消费者需求和持续的供应中断，高通胀可能会比许多人预期的持续时间更长。</blockquote></p><p> Even if used-car prices decline, othercategories such as housing could push in the other direction with household balance sheets in their strongest position in decades, said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies LLC 首席经济学家 Aneta Markowska 表示，即使二手车价格下跌，住房等其他类别也可能会朝另一个方向发展，家庭资产负债表处于几十年来最强劲的位置。</blockquote></p><p> Long-term inflation expectations have been also closely linked with the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, typically rising whenever it seems the Fed will take a longer time to tighten monetary policy by tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>长期通胀预期也与美联储政策前景密切相关，每当美联储似乎需要更长时间通过缩减债券购买和加息来收紧货币政策时，通胀预期通常就会上升。</blockquote></p><p> Just in the past few days, the 10-year break-even rate has ticked higher after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had made no decision about when to start reducing bond purchases and would beunlikely to raise ratesuntil it was done with tapering.</p><p><blockquote>就在过去几天，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储尚未决定何时开始减少债券购买，并且很可能会加息，直到完成缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> Still, for many investors, the overall picture looks more benign than it did a few months ago.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，对于许多投资者来说，总体情况看起来比几个月前更加温和。</blockquote></p><p> “Our expectation is that inflation is going to settle into a two to three percent clip. And that’s not bad for the market,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth for Glenmede.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计通胀率将稳定在 2% 到 3% 的水平。这对市场来说并不坏，”Glenmede 私人财富公司首席投资官杰森-普莱德（Jason Pride）说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-is-hot-now-but-investors-are-betting-that-wont-last-11627810380?mod=hp_lead_pos1\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-is-hot-now-but-investors-are-betting-that-wont-last-11627810380?mod=hp_lead_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149048645","content_text":"Investors are betting the inflationary streak that has sent prices of everything from used cars to lumber soaring will fade in the coming years, a reassuring sign for markets struggling to find direction.\nFew issues have vexed money managers more this year than inflation. As the global economy has regained its footing, prices for goods and services have risen—in many casesfar fasterthan economists had anticipated. Labor shortages and supply-chain disruptions snarling the global shipping industry have added to inflationary pressures.\nThe trend has worried many investors, since inflation can chip into companies’ profit margins, pressuring share prices. It can also eat away at the purchasing power of government bonds’ fixed returns. In the days ahead, investors will get a look at fresh economic data including factory orders, vehicle sales and the monthly employment report.\nYet markets are starting to signal that investors may be growing less fearful.\nTake the break-even rate. Calculated by measuring the difference in yields between Treasurys and their inflation-protected counterparts, or TIPS, the break-even rate shows how much inflation traders anticipate over a period of time. Since peaking for the year in May, the break-even rates for five-, seven-, and 10-year Treasurys have all fallen—suggesting traders are pricing in a moderation in inflation in coming years.\nTraders expect inflation will be higher in thenext couple of years than in the longer term, adeparture from the past decade.\nBreak-even inflation rate\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via St.Louis Fed\nIn another twist, the five-year break-even rate, which currently trades around 2.58%, has surpassed the 10-year rate, which sits around 2.43%. In contrast, the Labor Department’s main gauge ofconsumer prices jumped 5.4% in Junefrom the 12 months prior—the biggest rise in prices recorded since August 2008.\nPut in other words: traders know inflation is hot now; but they are betting that price pressures will ease up significantly, not just in the next few years but over the next decade.\n“Markets seem to be taking it in stride,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, noting stock indexes from the U.S. to Europe have managed to climb to records in the past month.\nWhile some of his peers continue to fear inflation will rise at levels that might force the Federal Reserve to step in and sharply rein in its easy-money policies, Mr. Kleintop isn’t as concerned. If there is anything he’s worried about these days, it is that thefast-spreading Delta variantof Covid-19 might wind up disrupting the U.S. recovery.\nRecent swings in stock and bond markets “seem more driven by prospects for a downturn driven by more [pandemic-related] lockdowns, rather than downturns from withdrawn support from the Fed,” Mr. Kleintop said.\nEconomists had expected inflation numbers to be elevated this spring and summer thanks to comparisons to deeply depressed prices a year earlier. But they have far exceeded even those expectations.\nIn April, May and June, the consumer-price index rose a non-seasonally adjusted 0.9% on average, 0.6 percentage point higher than the average over that period from 2010 through 2019.\nInvestors, though, have hardly been rattled.\nCPI inflation swaps—derivatives used by traders to make precise inflation bets—indicate investors are looking for just one or two more months of eye-popping inflation, with the non-seasonally adjusted CPI index expected to rise 0.6% in July—a month in which, on average, it didn’t rise at all in the 2010-2019 period. After August, monthly inflation is expected to be only a little above average, though year-over-year readings could still exceed 5% before dropping sharply next year.\nUsed cars and trucksplay a major partin investors’ thinking. In June, their prices rose 10.5% from the previous month, driving a third of the rise in overall CPI. Many, though, believe used-car prices could rise more slowly later in the year or even decline, as auto companies ramp up the supply of new cars and consumers start shopping more carefully.\nOverall, the consensus on Wall Street is that different supply shortages will, one by one, eventually be resolved; at the same time, consumer demand will normalize as the government sends less money to households with the expiration of coronavirus-relief programs.\nMarkets are saying “yes, we might get some strong inflation, but it’s not likely to be structural inflation,” said Michael Pond, head of global inflation-linked research atBarclays.\nBetting on short-term inflation—whether through swaps or off-the-run Treasury-inflation protected securities—has offered unusual opportunities this year. An ICE BofA index of TIPS with remaining maturities of one to nearly five years has returned 4.4% this year, compared with negative 0.1% for non-inflation protected Treasurys of the same maturity range.\nHolders of TIPS are compensated with additional principal and coupon payments when CPI rises, meaning they outearn holders of nominal Treasurys if inflation exceeds expectations but earn less if prices don’t rise as much as expected.\n“Short-term TIPS have done incredibly well mainly because the inflation compensation component is very large,” said Gemma Wright-Casparius, senior portfolio manager at Vanguard Group, who leads the firm’s actively managed Treasury and inflation bond funds.\nMs. Wright-Casparius said her team added TIPS to Vanguard’s actively managed Treasury funds last year when inflation expectations were deeply depressed but is now more neutral on inflation, seeing the market as adequately priced for what lies ahead.\nSome investors and analysts still think high inflation could linger longer than many expect, thanks to both strong consumer demand and continued supply disruptions.\nEven if used-car prices decline, othercategories such as housing could push in the other direction with household balance sheets in their strongest position in decades, said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC.\nLong-term inflation expectations have been also closely linked with the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, typically rising whenever it seems the Fed will take a longer time to tighten monetary policy by tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates.\nJust in the past few days, the 10-year break-even rate has ticked higher after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had made no decision about when to start reducing bond purchases and would beunlikely to raise ratesuntil it was done with tapering.\nStill, for many investors, the overall picture looks more benign than it did a few months ago.\n“Our expectation is that inflation is going to settle into a two to three percent clip. And that’s not bad for the market,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth for Glenmede.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":18,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/805211877"}
精彩评论