jhkaine
2021-08-02
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Expedia: Perfectly Valued, Perfectly Situated<blockquote>Expedia：物超所值，地理位置优越</blockquote>
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Now, they are t","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Expedia's income plunged after lockdowns shut down travel across the world. Now, they are trading above pre-pandemic levels with travel not yet recovered.</li> <li>With business and international travel expected to pick up in late 2020 or early 2021, I believe the company is perfectly valued and situated to take advantage of steady growth.</li> <li>I am bullish on the company's 5-year prospects.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c936ae728a0a5e399ec9eb9f9d5a71d\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ArtMarie/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>封锁导致全球旅行关闭后，Expedia 的收入暴跌。现在，他们的交易价格高于大流行前的水平，旅游业尚未恢复。</li><li>随着商务和国际旅行预计将在 2020 年底或 2021 年初复苏，我相信该公司的估值非常高，并且有能力利用稳定增长。</li><li>我看好公司5年的前景。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ArtMarie/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Travel, in all of its forms, has taken the biggest hit from closures and lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic as flights were cancelled, hotels shuttered and individuals and companies reducing travel to near zero for nearly a year.</p><p><blockquote>在 COVID-19 大流行期间，各种形式的旅行都受到了关闭和封锁的最大打击，航班被取消，酒店关闭，个人和公司在近一年的时间里将旅行减少到接近于零。</blockquote></p><p> Expedia (EXPE), through its various offerings, is a major player in the travel industry, where it offers a database of flights, hotels, car rentals, short-term apartment rentals, cruise bookings and more. During the pandemic, they've seen their revenues plunge from over $12 billion in 2019 to just over $5 billion in 2020 and subsequently suspended their dividend and reported a wide loss of over $1.5 billion for 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Expedia（EXPE）通过其各种产品，是旅游业的主要参与者，它提供航班、酒店、汽车租赁、短期公寓租赁、邮轮预订等数据库。在疫情期间，他们的收入从2019年的120多亿美元暴跌至2020年的50多亿美元，随后暂停了股息，并报告2020年的巨额亏损超过15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Now, with the recovery underway and retail travel reaching record reopening numbers, there are several positives and negatives to consider with Expedia. The negative one being share price, with them currently trading at roughly double where they were before the pandemic even started, yet travel is not expected to return to those levels for quite some time. The positive side of this is that we now have a clear indication that travel growth is expected to remain high for quite some time, allowing for higher industry valuations. Let's explore these catalysts and see where the company stands relative to the industry and its closest peers.</p><p><blockquote>现在，随着复苏的进行和零售旅游达到创纪录的重新开放数量，Expedia有几个积极和消极的方面需要考虑。不利因素是股价，目前股价约为疫情爆发前的两倍，但预计旅游业在相当长的一段时间内不会恢复到这些水平。积极的一面是，我们现在有明确的迹象表明，旅游业增长预计将在相当长一段时间内保持高位，从而导致行业估值更高。让我们探索这些催化剂，看看该公司相对于行业及其最接近的同行的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Negative Approach: Overvalued? Competition?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消极方法：高估？竞争？</b></blockquote></p><p> Before getting to the share price and competitive parts of the conversation, let's explore some other negative elements to Expedia.</p><p><blockquote>在进入股价和对话的竞争部分之前，让我们探讨一下 Expedia 的其他一些负面因素。</blockquote></p><p> Debt and interest expense had surged in2019following expansion into various industries and consolidation. Debt went from $4.2 billion in 2019 to $8.2 billion in 2020 and interest expense nearlydoubledas well, from under $200 million to $408 million in the most recent company update. This may have been a strategic mistake on behalf of the company since we're now expecting interest rates to increase over the coming years, meaning that the company can see interest expense nearly double and approach $750 million by 2023 if they don't put a plan to retire or restructure some of the debt.</p><p><blockquote>在向各个行业扩张和整合后，2019年债务和利息支出激增。债务从2019年的42亿美元增加到2020年的82亿美元，利息支出几乎翻了一番，在最近的公司更新中，从不到2亿美元增加到4.08亿美元。这对公司来说可能是一个战略错误，因为我们现在预计未来几年利率将会上升，这意味着如果他们不制定计划，到 2023 年，该公司的利息支出可能会增加近一倍，接近 7.5 亿美元退休或重组部分债务。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, the company does have a high cash position and they can, in theory, use it to pay down some of their high interest debt earlier than expected to avoid this charge. I'll discuss their cash situation later in the article.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，该公司确实拥有较高的现金头寸，理论上，他们可以用它来比预期更早偿还一些高息债务，以避免这笔费用。我将在文章后面讨论他们的现金状况。</blockquote></p><p> The main negative approach I had when I first saw the company's share price recovery in full effect is their valuation. Before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down worldwide travel, the company was trading around the $120.00 per share levels and are now trading around $170.00 per share, roughly 50% higher at various peaks. This is happening even as travel, and revenues, are not expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels until 24 months from now and even longer if we don't see the expected international travel pick up, since right now domestic travel surges are compensating for softer business and international travel.</p><p><blockquote>当我第一次看到公司股价全面复苏时，我的主要负面态度是他们的估值。在 COVID-19 大流行关闭 worldwide travel 之前，该公司的交易价格约为每股 120.00 美元，目前交易价格约为每股 170.00 美元，在不同峰值时高出约 50%。尽管旅行和收入预计要到从现在起的 24 个月才能恢复到大流行前的水平，如果我们没有看到预期的国际旅行回升，甚至会更长，因为目前国内旅行的激增正在补偿疲软的商务和国际旅行。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, a look at the company's valuation and multiples based off analyst projections, along with what I believe will be a better-than-expected actual results from the company, shows that the company is, for lack of a better term, perfectly and fairly valued.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，根据分析师的预测来看看该公司的估值和市盈率，以及我认为该公司的实际业绩将好于预期，就会发现，在没有更好的术语的情况下，该公司的估值是完美且公平的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Valuation: Perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司估值：完美</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the company's own projections isn't enough here, since competitive pressures remain high in this relatively saturated industry. Let's evaluate the company relative to Booking Holdings (BKNG), which is currently the world's largest online travel company and Expedia's closest competitor in the public markets.</p><p><blockquote>仅仅看该公司自己的预测是不够的，因为在这个相对饱和的行业中，竞争压力仍然很大。让我们相对于 Booking Holdings (BKNG) 来评估该公司，后者目前是全球最大的在线旅游公司，也是 Expedia 在公开市场上最接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> First, let's look at expected EPS growth through the next 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们看看未来5年的预期每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8564ffd38e826bfa96a0864185eba3f\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"351\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that Expedia is coming out of a loss per share while Booking managed to maintain a profit, it's important to look at the expected growth from 2022 to 2025 to get a sense of comparison. Over that time period, Expedia is set to grow EPS by 82% while Booking is set to grow EPS by 62%. This given Expedia an advantage, I believe, in valuation multiples when compared to Booking. Let's look at multiples.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于 Expedia 正在摆脱每股亏损，而 Booking 则设法保持盈利，因此了解 2022 年至 2025 年的预期增长以获得比较感非常重要。在此期间，Expedia 的每股收益将增长 82%，而 Booking 的每股收益将增长 62%。我相信，与 Booking 相比，这使得 Expedia 在估值倍数方面具有优势。让我们看看倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f8870ade9bafc30cdd64dcaa252ef94\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"213\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As we can see, even though Expedia is expected to grow at a slightly faster rate over the next 5 years than Booking is, they're trading at slightly lower to even multiples. Now, it's possible that Booking is slightly overvalued while Expedia is fairly valued, but I believe that based off the aforementioned factors and given that I believe Expedia can continue to enjoy higher margins (Expedia currently holds a 68% gross margin while Booking a 64% margin), that both cases are true and that Booking is slightly overvalued while Expedia is ever-so-slightly undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，尽管 Expedia 预计未来 5 年的增长速度将比 Booking 略快，但它们的交易价格略低至偶数倍。现在，Booking 的估值可能略有高估，而 Expedia 的估值相当合理，但我相信，基于上述因素，并且我相信 Expedia 可以继续享受更高的利润率（Expedia 目前拥有 68% 的毛利率，而 Booking 的利润率为 64%），这两种情况都是正确的，Booking 的估值略有高估，而 Expedia 的估值则略有低估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Balance Sheets and Other Competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资产负债表和其他竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> There are 2 more factors worth considering, one positive and one negative.</p><p><blockquote>还有两个因素值得考虑，一个积极，一个消极。</blockquote></p><p> The positive factor is the company's balance sheet. Even though they hold a large debt position of over $8 billion and are likely to see interest expense rise as interest rates do, they hold one of their largest cash positions they've even had, aided by cost cutting initiatives throughout the pandemic, including suspending their dividend, a factor I'll get into in the next segment.</p><p><blockquote>积极因素是公司的资产负债表。尽管他们持有超过 80 亿美元的巨额债务头寸，并且可能会看到利息支出随着利率上升而上升，但在整个疫情的成本削减举措的帮助下，他们持有有史以来最大的现金头寸之一，包括暂停他们的股息，这是我将在下一部分讨论的一个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Expedia currently holds almost$4.3 billionin cash and equivalents and another $23 million in short term investments. This puts their net debt position at under $4.5 billion with expected cash flows over the next few years being enough to cover interest and restructuring charges as interest rates inch higher.</p><p><blockquote>Expedia 目前持有近 43 亿美元现金及等价物，另有 2300 万美元短期投资。这使得他们的净债务头寸低于 45 亿美元，随着利率小幅上升，预计未来几年的现金流足以支付利息和重组费用。</blockquote></p><p> The negative factor here is direct and indirect competition. As mentioned earlier, companies like Booking are their main competitive headwinds but there is also the constant possibility that new websites with superior algorithms may spur up at any moment and take away business. An example of this are various sites like Skyscanner (TCOM), which does to sites like Expedia what Expedia does to hotel and airlines sites and occasionally can find significant savings by booking with one of Expedia's competitors. The emergence of these sites won't hurt their core sales stream but can put significant pressure on the company's margins.</p><p><blockquote>这里的负面因素是直接和间接竞争。如前所述，像Booking这样的公司是他们的主要竞争阻力，但也有一种持续的可能性，即拥有卓越算法的新网站可能会在任何时候出现并夺走业务。这方面的一个例子是Skyscanner（TCOM）等各种网站，它对Expedia等网站的作用就像Expedia对酒店和航空公司网站的作用一样，偶尔可以通过向Expedia的竞争对手之一预订来节省大量费用。这些网站的出现不会损害他们的核心销售流，但会给公司的利润率带来巨大压力。</blockquote></p><p> An inorganic way that the company faces competitive pressures is from the original airlines, hotel, car rental and cruise companies themselves, which in recent years have made a big push to develop their own websites, applications and rewards centers to incentivize customers to book directly with them, saving them the booking costs to these third party sites and apps like Expedia. As these competitive pressures grow, Expedia and other online travel booking companies can see their margin take a hit as they lower commissions and prices to adapt to the rising pressures.</p><p><blockquote>该公司面临竞争压力的一种无机方式来自原来的航空公司、酒店、汽车租赁和邮轮公司本身，这些公司近年来大力开发自己的网站、应用程序和奖励中心，以激励客户直接向他们预订，为他们节省了Expedia等第三方网站和应用程序的预订成本。随着这些竞争压力的增加，Expedia 和其他在线旅游预订公司可能会看到他们的利润率受到打击，因为他们降低了佣金和价格以适应不断增长的压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overall: Perfectly Situated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体：位置绝佳</b></blockquote></p><p> With the industry overall and Expedia in particular expected to grow steadily over the next 5 years, as they recover from the COVID-19 pandemic plunge, investors will likely enjoy a steady growth rate of around 8% annually from Expedia, which given current overall valuations, will almost certainly be higher than the overall market.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业，特别是 Expedia 从 COVID-19 大流行的暴跌中恢复过来，预计未来 5 年将稳步增长，投资者可能会从 Expedia 那里享受每年 8% 左右的稳定增长率，考虑到目前的整体估值，几乎肯定会高于整体市场。</blockquote></p><p> Another positive factor for Expedia is the return of their dividend. They suspended their dividend back in late 2020 to save costs as the pandemic raged on, keeping nearly $200 million annually in cash. As they stated in that same release, so this isn't just a wild speculation, I expect them to return the dividend as they recover and regain their cash flow generating capabilities.</p><p><blockquote>Expedia 的另一个积极因素是股息的回报。随着疫情的肆虐，他们在 2020 年底暂停了股息，以节省成本，每年保留近 2 亿美元的现金。正如他们在同一份新闻稿中所说，所以这不仅仅是一个疯狂的猜测，我预计他们会在恢复和重新获得现金流产生能力时返还股息。</blockquote></p><p> I don't know if they'll return to the $1.34 annual dividend for a yield of 0.83% annually, but I'll await further news related to their expected payout ratio. The speculative part of this is that we can see a jump in dividend payout given expected cash flows and it's possible we see a yield of over 1%, bringing total potential return closer to 10% annually, which can entice long term investors.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道他们是否会恢复 1.34 美元的年股息，年收益率为 0.83%，但我会等待与他们预期派息率相关的进一步消息。其中的投机部分是，考虑到预期现金流，我们可以看到股息支付的跃升，并且我们可能会看到收益率超过 1%，使总潜在年回报率接近 10%，这可以吸引长期投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I believe Expedia is perfectly valued and perfectly situated to take advantage of the steady growth back to and beyond levels we saw pre-pandemic as business and international travel bounces back late this year or early next year.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我相信 Expedia 的估值非常高，并且完全有能力利用稳定增长，恢复到并超越我们在今年年底或明年初看到的疫情前水平，因为商务和国际旅行将在今年年底或明年初反弹。</blockquote></p><p> I am bullish on Expedia's 5-year prospects.</p><p><blockquote>我看好 Expedia 的 5 年前景。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expedia: Perfectly Valued, Perfectly Situated<blockquote>Expedia：物超所值，地理位置优越</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpedia: Perfectly Valued, Perfectly Situated<blockquote>Expedia：物超所值，地理位置优越</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 11:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Expedia's income plunged after lockdowns shut down travel across the world. Now, they are trading above pre-pandemic levels with travel not yet recovered.</li> <li>With business and international travel expected to pick up in late 2020 or early 2021, I believe the company is perfectly valued and situated to take advantage of steady growth.</li> <li>I am bullish on the company's 5-year prospects.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c936ae728a0a5e399ec9eb9f9d5a71d\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ArtMarie/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>封锁导致全球旅行关闭后，Expedia 的收入暴跌。现在，他们的交易价格高于大流行前的水平，旅游业尚未恢复。</li><li>随着商务和国际旅行预计将在 2020 年底或 2021 年初复苏，我相信该公司的估值非常高，并且有能力利用稳定增长。</li><li>我看好公司5年的前景。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ArtMarie/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Travel, in all of its forms, has taken the biggest hit from closures and lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic as flights were cancelled, hotels shuttered and individuals and companies reducing travel to near zero for nearly a year.</p><p><blockquote>在 COVID-19 大流行期间，各种形式的旅行都受到了关闭和封锁的最大打击，航班被取消，酒店关闭，个人和公司在近一年的时间里将旅行减少到接近于零。</blockquote></p><p> Expedia (EXPE), through its various offerings, is a major player in the travel industry, where it offers a database of flights, hotels, car rentals, short-term apartment rentals, cruise bookings and more. During the pandemic, they've seen their revenues plunge from over $12 billion in 2019 to just over $5 billion in 2020 and subsequently suspended their dividend and reported a wide loss of over $1.5 billion for 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Expedia（EXPE）通过其各种产品，是旅游业的主要参与者，它提供航班、酒店、汽车租赁、短期公寓租赁、邮轮预订等数据库。在疫情期间，他们的收入从2019年的120多亿美元暴跌至2020年的50多亿美元，随后暂停了股息，并报告2020年的巨额亏损超过15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Now, with the recovery underway and retail travel reaching record reopening numbers, there are several positives and negatives to consider with Expedia. The negative one being share price, with them currently trading at roughly double where they were before the pandemic even started, yet travel is not expected to return to those levels for quite some time. The positive side of this is that we now have a clear indication that travel growth is expected to remain high for quite some time, allowing for higher industry valuations. Let's explore these catalysts and see where the company stands relative to the industry and its closest peers.</p><p><blockquote>现在，随着复苏的进行和零售旅游达到创纪录的重新开放数量，Expedia有几个积极和消极的方面需要考虑。不利因素是股价，目前股价约为疫情爆发前的两倍，但预计旅游业在相当长的一段时间内不会恢复到这些水平。积极的一面是，我们现在有明确的迹象表明，旅游业增长预计将在相当长一段时间内保持高位，从而导致行业估值更高。让我们探索这些催化剂，看看该公司相对于行业及其最接近的同行的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Negative Approach: Overvalued? Competition?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消极方法：高估？竞争？</b></blockquote></p><p> Before getting to the share price and competitive parts of the conversation, let's explore some other negative elements to Expedia.</p><p><blockquote>在进入股价和对话的竞争部分之前，让我们探讨一下 Expedia 的其他一些负面因素。</blockquote></p><p> Debt and interest expense had surged in2019following expansion into various industries and consolidation. Debt went from $4.2 billion in 2019 to $8.2 billion in 2020 and interest expense nearlydoubledas well, from under $200 million to $408 million in the most recent company update. This may have been a strategic mistake on behalf of the company since we're now expecting interest rates to increase over the coming years, meaning that the company can see interest expense nearly double and approach $750 million by 2023 if they don't put a plan to retire or restructure some of the debt.</p><p><blockquote>在向各个行业扩张和整合后，2019年债务和利息支出激增。债务从2019年的42亿美元增加到2020年的82亿美元，利息支出几乎翻了一番，在最近的公司更新中，从不到2亿美元增加到4.08亿美元。这对公司来说可能是一个战略错误，因为我们现在预计未来几年利率将会上升，这意味着如果他们不制定计划，到 2023 年，该公司的利息支出可能会增加近一倍，接近 7.5 亿美元退休或重组部分债务。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, the company does have a high cash position and they can, in theory, use it to pay down some of their high interest debt earlier than expected to avoid this charge. I'll discuss their cash situation later in the article.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，该公司确实拥有较高的现金头寸，理论上，他们可以用它来比预期更早偿还一些高息债务，以避免这笔费用。我将在文章后面讨论他们的现金状况。</blockquote></p><p> The main negative approach I had when I first saw the company's share price recovery in full effect is their valuation. Before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down worldwide travel, the company was trading around the $120.00 per share levels and are now trading around $170.00 per share, roughly 50% higher at various peaks. This is happening even as travel, and revenues, are not expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels until 24 months from now and even longer if we don't see the expected international travel pick up, since right now domestic travel surges are compensating for softer business and international travel.</p><p><blockquote>当我第一次看到公司股价全面复苏时，我的主要负面态度是他们的估值。在 COVID-19 大流行关闭 worldwide travel 之前，该公司的交易价格约为每股 120.00 美元，目前交易价格约为每股 170.00 美元，在不同峰值时高出约 50%。尽管旅行和收入预计要到从现在起的 24 个月才能恢复到大流行前的水平，如果我们没有看到预期的国际旅行回升，甚至会更长，因为目前国内旅行的激增正在补偿疲软的商务和国际旅行。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, a look at the company's valuation and multiples based off analyst projections, along with what I believe will be a better-than-expected actual results from the company, shows that the company is, for lack of a better term, perfectly and fairly valued.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，根据分析师的预测来看看该公司的估值和市盈率，以及我认为该公司的实际业绩将好于预期，就会发现，在没有更好的术语的情况下，该公司的估值是完美且公平的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Valuation: Perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司估值：完美</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the company's own projections isn't enough here, since competitive pressures remain high in this relatively saturated industry. Let's evaluate the company relative to Booking Holdings (BKNG), which is currently the world's largest online travel company and Expedia's closest competitor in the public markets.</p><p><blockquote>仅仅看该公司自己的预测是不够的，因为在这个相对饱和的行业中，竞争压力仍然很大。让我们相对于 Booking Holdings (BKNG) 来评估该公司，后者目前是全球最大的在线旅游公司，也是 Expedia 在公开市场上最接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> First, let's look at expected EPS growth through the next 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们看看未来5年的预期每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8564ffd38e826bfa96a0864185eba3f\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"351\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that Expedia is coming out of a loss per share while Booking managed to maintain a profit, it's important to look at the expected growth from 2022 to 2025 to get a sense of comparison. Over that time period, Expedia is set to grow EPS by 82% while Booking is set to grow EPS by 62%. This given Expedia an advantage, I believe, in valuation multiples when compared to Booking. Let's look at multiples.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于 Expedia 正在摆脱每股亏损，而 Booking 则设法保持盈利，因此了解 2022 年至 2025 年的预期增长以获得比较感非常重要。在此期间，Expedia 的每股收益将增长 82%，而 Booking 的每股收益将增长 62%。我相信，与 Booking 相比，这使得 Expedia 在估值倍数方面具有优势。让我们看看倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f8870ade9bafc30cdd64dcaa252ef94\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"213\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As we can see, even though Expedia is expected to grow at a slightly faster rate over the next 5 years than Booking is, they're trading at slightly lower to even multiples. Now, it's possible that Booking is slightly overvalued while Expedia is fairly valued, but I believe that based off the aforementioned factors and given that I believe Expedia can continue to enjoy higher margins (Expedia currently holds a 68% gross margin while Booking a 64% margin), that both cases are true and that Booking is slightly overvalued while Expedia is ever-so-slightly undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，尽管 Expedia 预计未来 5 年的增长速度将比 Booking 略快，但它们的交易价格略低至偶数倍。现在，Booking 的估值可能略有高估，而 Expedia 的估值相当合理，但我相信，基于上述因素，并且我相信 Expedia 可以继续享受更高的利润率（Expedia 目前拥有 68% 的毛利率，而 Booking 的利润率为 64%），这两种情况都是正确的，Booking 的估值略有高估，而 Expedia 的估值则略有低估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Balance Sheets and Other Competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资产负债表和其他竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> There are 2 more factors worth considering, one positive and one negative.</p><p><blockquote>还有两个因素值得考虑，一个积极，一个消极。</blockquote></p><p> The positive factor is the company's balance sheet. Even though they hold a large debt position of over $8 billion and are likely to see interest expense rise as interest rates do, they hold one of their largest cash positions they've even had, aided by cost cutting initiatives throughout the pandemic, including suspending their dividend, a factor I'll get into in the next segment.</p><p><blockquote>积极因素是公司的资产负债表。尽管他们持有超过 80 亿美元的巨额债务头寸，并且可能会看到利息支出随着利率上升而上升，但在整个疫情的成本削减举措的帮助下，他们持有有史以来最大的现金头寸之一，包括暂停他们的股息，这是我将在下一部分讨论的一个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Expedia currently holds almost$4.3 billionin cash and equivalents and another $23 million in short term investments. This puts their net debt position at under $4.5 billion with expected cash flows over the next few years being enough to cover interest and restructuring charges as interest rates inch higher.</p><p><blockquote>Expedia 目前持有近 43 亿美元现金及等价物，另有 2300 万美元短期投资。这使得他们的净债务头寸低于 45 亿美元，随着利率小幅上升，预计未来几年的现金流足以支付利息和重组费用。</blockquote></p><p> The negative factor here is direct and indirect competition. As mentioned earlier, companies like Booking are their main competitive headwinds but there is also the constant possibility that new websites with superior algorithms may spur up at any moment and take away business. An example of this are various sites like Skyscanner (TCOM), which does to sites like Expedia what Expedia does to hotel and airlines sites and occasionally can find significant savings by booking with one of Expedia's competitors. The emergence of these sites won't hurt their core sales stream but can put significant pressure on the company's margins.</p><p><blockquote>这里的负面因素是直接和间接竞争。如前所述，像Booking这样的公司是他们的主要竞争阻力，但也有一种持续的可能性，即拥有卓越算法的新网站可能会在任何时候出现并夺走业务。这方面的一个例子是Skyscanner（TCOM）等各种网站，它对Expedia等网站的作用就像Expedia对酒店和航空公司网站的作用一样，偶尔可以通过向Expedia的竞争对手之一预订来节省大量费用。这些网站的出现不会损害他们的核心销售流，但会给公司的利润率带来巨大压力。</blockquote></p><p> An inorganic way that the company faces competitive pressures is from the original airlines, hotel, car rental and cruise companies themselves, which in recent years have made a big push to develop their own websites, applications and rewards centers to incentivize customers to book directly with them, saving them the booking costs to these third party sites and apps like Expedia. As these competitive pressures grow, Expedia and other online travel booking companies can see their margin take a hit as they lower commissions and prices to adapt to the rising pressures.</p><p><blockquote>该公司面临竞争压力的一种无机方式来自原来的航空公司、酒店、汽车租赁和邮轮公司本身，这些公司近年来大力开发自己的网站、应用程序和奖励中心，以激励客户直接向他们预订，为他们节省了Expedia等第三方网站和应用程序的预订成本。随着这些竞争压力的增加，Expedia 和其他在线旅游预订公司可能会看到他们的利润率受到打击，因为他们降低了佣金和价格以适应不断增长的压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overall: Perfectly Situated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体：位置绝佳</b></blockquote></p><p> With the industry overall and Expedia in particular expected to grow steadily over the next 5 years, as they recover from the COVID-19 pandemic plunge, investors will likely enjoy a steady growth rate of around 8% annually from Expedia, which given current overall valuations, will almost certainly be higher than the overall market.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业，特别是 Expedia 从 COVID-19 大流行的暴跌中恢复过来，预计未来 5 年将稳步增长，投资者可能会从 Expedia 那里享受每年 8% 左右的稳定增长率，考虑到目前的整体估值，几乎肯定会高于整体市场。</blockquote></p><p> Another positive factor for Expedia is the return of their dividend. They suspended their dividend back in late 2020 to save costs as the pandemic raged on, keeping nearly $200 million annually in cash. As they stated in that same release, so this isn't just a wild speculation, I expect them to return the dividend as they recover and regain their cash flow generating capabilities.</p><p><blockquote>Expedia 的另一个积极因素是股息的回报。随着疫情的肆虐，他们在 2020 年底暂停了股息，以节省成本，每年保留近 2 亿美元的现金。正如他们在同一份新闻稿中所说，所以这不仅仅是一个疯狂的猜测，我预计他们会在恢复和重新获得现金流产生能力时返还股息。</blockquote></p><p> I don't know if they'll return to the $1.34 annual dividend for a yield of 0.83% annually, but I'll await further news related to their expected payout ratio. The speculative part of this is that we can see a jump in dividend payout given expected cash flows and it's possible we see a yield of over 1%, bringing total potential return closer to 10% annually, which can entice long term investors.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道他们是否会恢复 1.34 美元的年股息，年收益率为 0.83%，但我会等待与他们预期派息率相关的进一步消息。其中的投机部分是，考虑到预期现金流，我们可以看到股息支付的跃升，并且我们可能会看到收益率超过 1%，使总潜在年回报率接近 10%，这可以吸引长期投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I believe Expedia is perfectly valued and perfectly situated to take advantage of the steady growth back to and beyond levels we saw pre-pandemic as business and international travel bounces back late this year or early next year.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我相信 Expedia 的估值非常高，并且完全有能力利用稳定增长，恢复到并超越我们在今年年底或明年初看到的疫情前水平，因为商务和国际旅行将在今年年底或明年初反弹。</blockquote></p><p> I am bullish on Expedia's 5-year prospects.</p><p><blockquote>我看好 Expedia 的 5 年前景。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443422-expedia-perfectly-valued-perfectly-situated\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EXPE":"Expedia"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443422-expedia-perfectly-valued-perfectly-situated","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190185935","content_text":"Summary\n\nExpedia's income plunged after lockdowns shut down travel across the world. Now, they are trading above pre-pandemic levels with travel not yet recovered.\nWith business and international travel expected to pick up in late 2020 or early 2021, I believe the company is perfectly valued and situated to take advantage of steady growth.\nI am bullish on the company's 5-year prospects.\n\nArtMarie/E+ via Getty Images\nTravel, in all of its forms, has taken the biggest hit from closures and lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic as flights were cancelled, hotels shuttered and individuals and companies reducing travel to near zero for nearly a year.\nExpedia (EXPE), through its various offerings, is a major player in the travel industry, where it offers a database of flights, hotels, car rentals, short-term apartment rentals, cruise bookings and more. During the pandemic, they've seen their revenues plunge from over $12 billion in 2019 to just over $5 billion in 2020 and subsequently suspended their dividend and reported a wide loss of over $1.5 billion for 2020.\nNow, with the recovery underway and retail travel reaching record reopening numbers, there are several positives and negatives to consider with Expedia. The negative one being share price, with them currently trading at roughly double where they were before the pandemic even started, yet travel is not expected to return to those levels for quite some time. The positive side of this is that we now have a clear indication that travel growth is expected to remain high for quite some time, allowing for higher industry valuations. Let's explore these catalysts and see where the company stands relative to the industry and its closest peers.\nNegative Approach: Overvalued? Competition?\nBefore getting to the share price and competitive parts of the conversation, let's explore some other negative elements to Expedia.\nDebt and interest expense had surged in2019following expansion into various industries and consolidation. Debt went from $4.2 billion in 2019 to $8.2 billion in 2020 and interest expense nearlydoubledas well, from under $200 million to $408 million in the most recent company update. This may have been a strategic mistake on behalf of the company since we're now expecting interest rates to increase over the coming years, meaning that the company can see interest expense nearly double and approach $750 million by 2023 if they don't put a plan to retire or restructure some of the debt.\nEven so, the company does have a high cash position and they can, in theory, use it to pay down some of their high interest debt earlier than expected to avoid this charge. I'll discuss their cash situation later in the article.\nThe main negative approach I had when I first saw the company's share price recovery in full effect is their valuation. Before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down worldwide travel, the company was trading around the $120.00 per share levels and are now trading around $170.00 per share, roughly 50% higher at various peaks. This is happening even as travel, and revenues, are not expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels until 24 months from now and even longer if we don't see the expected international travel pick up, since right now domestic travel surges are compensating for softer business and international travel.\nEven so, a look at the company's valuation and multiples based off analyst projections, along with what I believe will be a better-than-expected actual results from the company, shows that the company is, for lack of a better term, perfectly and fairly valued.\nCompany Valuation: Perfection\nLooking at the company's own projections isn't enough here, since competitive pressures remain high in this relatively saturated industry. Let's evaluate the company relative to Booking Holdings (BKNG), which is currently the world's largest online travel company and Expedia's closest competitor in the public markets.\nFirst, let's look at expected EPS growth through the next 5 years.\n\nGiven that Expedia is coming out of a loss per share while Booking managed to maintain a profit, it's important to look at the expected growth from 2022 to 2025 to get a sense of comparison. Over that time period, Expedia is set to grow EPS by 82% while Booking is set to grow EPS by 62%. This given Expedia an advantage, I believe, in valuation multiples when compared to Booking. Let's look at multiples.\n\nAs we can see, even though Expedia is expected to grow at a slightly faster rate over the next 5 years than Booking is, they're trading at slightly lower to even multiples. Now, it's possible that Booking is slightly overvalued while Expedia is fairly valued, but I believe that based off the aforementioned factors and given that I believe Expedia can continue to enjoy higher margins (Expedia currently holds a 68% gross margin while Booking a 64% margin), that both cases are true and that Booking is slightly overvalued while Expedia is ever-so-slightly undervalued.\nBalance Sheets and Other Competition\nThere are 2 more factors worth considering, one positive and one negative.\nThe positive factor is the company's balance sheet. Even though they hold a large debt position of over $8 billion and are likely to see interest expense rise as interest rates do, they hold one of their largest cash positions they've even had, aided by cost cutting initiatives throughout the pandemic, including suspending their dividend, a factor I'll get into in the next segment.\nExpedia currently holds almost$4.3 billionin cash and equivalents and another $23 million in short term investments. This puts their net debt position at under $4.5 billion with expected cash flows over the next few years being enough to cover interest and restructuring charges as interest rates inch higher.\nThe negative factor here is direct and indirect competition. As mentioned earlier, companies like Booking are their main competitive headwinds but there is also the constant possibility that new websites with superior algorithms may spur up at any moment and take away business. An example of this are various sites like Skyscanner (TCOM), which does to sites like Expedia what Expedia does to hotel and airlines sites and occasionally can find significant savings by booking with one of Expedia's competitors. The emergence of these sites won't hurt their core sales stream but can put significant pressure on the company's margins.\nAn inorganic way that the company faces competitive pressures is from the original airlines, hotel, car rental and cruise companies themselves, which in recent years have made a big push to develop their own websites, applications and rewards centers to incentivize customers to book directly with them, saving them the booking costs to these third party sites and apps like Expedia. As these competitive pressures grow, Expedia and other online travel booking companies can see their margin take a hit as they lower commissions and prices to adapt to the rising pressures.\nOverall: Perfectly Situated\nWith the industry overall and Expedia in particular expected to grow steadily over the next 5 years, as they recover from the COVID-19 pandemic plunge, investors will likely enjoy a steady growth rate of around 8% annually from Expedia, which given current overall valuations, will almost certainly be higher than the overall market.\nAnother positive factor for Expedia is the return of their dividend. They suspended their dividend back in late 2020 to save costs as the pandemic raged on, keeping nearly $200 million annually in cash. As they stated in that same release, so this isn't just a wild speculation, I expect them to return the dividend as they recover and regain their cash flow generating capabilities.\nI don't know if they'll return to the $1.34 annual dividend for a yield of 0.83% annually, but I'll await further news related to their expected payout ratio. The speculative part of this is that we can see a jump in dividend payout given expected cash flows and it's possible we see a yield of over 1%, bringing total potential return closer to 10% annually, which can entice long term investors.\nOverall, I believe Expedia is perfectly valued and perfectly situated to take advantage of the steady growth back to and beyond levels we saw pre-pandemic as business and international travel bounces back late this year or early next year.\nI am bullish on Expedia's 5-year prospects.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EXPE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":777,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/805660828"}
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