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2021-07-30
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Apple Stock Is Cheap, Here Is Why<blockquote>苹果股票很便宜，原因如下</blockquote>
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The Apple Maven argues that AAPL is a","content":"<p>Apple delivered strong Q3 results, but the stock went nowhere. The Apple Maven argues that AAPL is attractively valued once again. Here is why.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公布了强劲的第三季度业绩，但该股一事无成。这位苹果专家认为，AAPL 的估值再次具有吸引力。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> DespiteApple’s outstanding fiscal third quarter numbers, reported on July 27, Apple stock failed to find support. Shares were down -1.2% after the quarterly report, after having dipped another -1.5% on earnings day itself.</p><p><blockquote>尽管苹果公司在 7 月 27 日公布了出色的第三财季业绩，但苹果股价未能找到支撑。季度报告发布后，股价下跌 -1.2%，财报日当天又下跌 -1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Some, including BMO Capital’s Tim Long, have argued that AAPL has reached fair valuation. I, on the other hand, believe that the stock has returned to being attractively priced. I present below the calculations that support my thesis.</p><p><blockquote>包括 BMO Capital 的蒂姆-朗（Tim Long）在内的一些人认为，AAPL 的估值已经达到了公平。另一方面，我相信该股的定价已经恢复到有吸引力的水平。我在下面提出了支持我论文的计算。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3facec59ae76a6c28f4c5847600b4de\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"886\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: New York Apple Store (Fifth Avenue).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约苹果店（第五大道）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Great business, good valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>生意好，估值好</b></blockquote></p><p> I can not start a debate about Apple stock price and valuations without emphasizing what seems obvious to me. Apple has been executing flawlessly as of late, both during the COVID-19 crisis and through the messy post-pandemic environment of supply chain challenges, limited access to physical stores, etc.</p><p><blockquote>我不能在不强调对我来说显而易见的事情的情况下开始关于苹果股价和估值的辩论。苹果最近一直完美地执行，无论是在新冠肺炎危机期间，还是在供应链挑战、实体店访问受限等混乱的大流行后环境中。</blockquote></p><p> That said, my main concern regarding Apple stock, if at all, tends to be valuations. Around mid-May, I presented the graph below as a key reason to “confidently buy Apple” on year-to-date weakness. Since the day of that article, AAPL has climbed 14% in just short of 12 weeks against the S&P 500’s 5% rise.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我对苹果股票的主要担忧（如果有的话）往往是估值。大约在 5 月中旬，我将下图作为 “自信买入苹果 ”年初至今疲软的关键原因。自那篇文章发表之日起，AAPL 在不到 12 周的时间里上涨了 14%，而标普500的涨幅仅为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac0b08108dea875dd3255e8f75f0987\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"518\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL - Historical valuation multiples.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AAPL - 历史估值倍数。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Counterintuitively, despite the recent rally, I think that Apple shares have started to head towards undervaluation once again. Think of current year P/E of 28 times as a starting point, which seems rich at first glance. This multiple is based on pre-earnings EPS consensus of $5.18 for fiscal 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与直觉相反，尽管最近上涨，但我认为苹果股票已经开始再次走向低估。以当年28倍的市盈率作为起点，乍一看似乎很丰厚。该倍数基于 2021 财年盈利前每股收益共识 5.18 美元。</blockquote></p><p> After July 27, Apple’s management team presented investors with two new pieces of information. First, fiscal Q3 consensus EPS of $1.01 proved to be understated by 29 cents. Mathematically, and adjusting only for the most recent earnings beat, full-year EPS estimates should have been closer to $5.47.</p><p><blockquote>7 月 27 日之后，苹果的管理团队向投资者提供了两条新信息。首先，第三财季 1.01 美元的共识每股收益被低估了 29 美分。从数学角度来看，仅根据最近的盈利数据进行调整，全年每股收益预期应该接近 5.47 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The other part was fiscal Q4 outlook. While Apple did not provide specific guidance on revenues, it offered directional commentary on sales and offered projections on other P&L items (see below):</p><p><blockquote>另一部分是第四季度财政展望。虽然苹果没有提供有关收入的具体指导，但它对销售提供了指导性评论，并对其他损益项目提供了预测（见下文）：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Revenue</b>: Double-digit growth, absent a COVID-19 comeback, but at a rate lower than the 36% seen in June quarter due to foreign exchange, normalization of services trend, and even worse supply constraints on iPhone and iPad.</li> <li><b>Below revenue line</b>: GM between 41.5% and 42.5%, opex between $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion, other income zero, tax rate of 16%.</li> </ul> I went ahead and plugged in the numbers. Wall Street projects revenue growth of 30% in fiscal Q4, which is in line with Apple’s vague outlook. Assuming the mid-point of the guidance range on all other P&L items, I estimate that next quarter’s EPS consensus should settle at $1.21 – about ten cents above where it currently stands.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收入</b>: 两位数的增长，没有 COVID-19 卷土重来，但由于外汇、服务正常化趋势以及 iPhone 和 iPad 更严重的供应限制，增长率低于 6 月份季度的 36%。</li><li><b>低于收入线</b>：GM在41.5%到42.5%之间，opex在113亿美元到115亿美元之间，其他收入为零，税率为16%。</li></ul>我继续输入数字。华尔街预计第四财季收入将增长 30%，这与苹果的模糊前景一致。假设所有其他损益项目的指导范围处于中点，我估计下一季度的每股收益共识应为 1.21 美元，比目前高出约 10 美分。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, consider that Apple has topped EPS consensus by 14 cents each quarter for the past ten periods. Add ten plus fourteen cents to the $5.47 mentioned above, and we are looking at a reasonable estimate of $5.71 in EPS for the current fiscal year. This represents a current P/E of only 25 times on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>最后，考虑一下苹果在过去十个时期的每个季度的每股收益都比市场预期高出 14 美分。在上述 5.47 美元的基础上加上 10 加 14 美分，我们对本财年每股收益的合理估计为 5.71 美元。这意味着该股目前的市盈率仅为 25 倍。</blockquote></p><p> This could be just an interesting coincidence, but a current-year P/E of 25 times was precisely the multiple that AAPL commanded in early May, before it leaped to nearly $150 per share last week. If I considered the stock a “confident buy” back then, I should have the same opinion now, at least for the sake of consistency.</p><p><blockquote>这可能只是一个有趣的巧合，但当年 25 倍的市盈率正是 AAPL 在上周跃升至近每股 150 美元之前 5 月初的倍数。如果我当时认为这只股票值得 “有信心买入”，那么现在我也应该有同样的看法，至少为了保持一致。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Is Cheap, Here Is Why<blockquote>苹果股票很便宜，原因如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Is Cheap, Here Is Why<blockquote>苹果股票很便宜，原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-30 17:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple delivered strong Q3 results, but the stock went nowhere. The Apple Maven argues that AAPL is attractively valued once again. Here is why.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公布了强劲的第三季度业绩，但该股一事无成。这位苹果专家认为，AAPL 的估值再次具有吸引力。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> DespiteApple’s outstanding fiscal third quarter numbers, reported on July 27, Apple stock failed to find support. Shares were down -1.2% after the quarterly report, after having dipped another -1.5% on earnings day itself.</p><p><blockquote>尽管苹果公司在 7 月 27 日公布了出色的第三财季业绩，但苹果股价未能找到支撑。季度报告发布后，股价下跌 -1.2%，财报日当天又下跌 -1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Some, including BMO Capital’s Tim Long, have argued that AAPL has reached fair valuation. I, on the other hand, believe that the stock has returned to being attractively priced. I present below the calculations that support my thesis.</p><p><blockquote>包括 BMO Capital 的蒂姆-朗（Tim Long）在内的一些人认为，AAPL 的估值已经达到了公平。另一方面，我相信该股的定价已经恢复到有吸引力的水平。我在下面提出了支持我论文的计算。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3facec59ae76a6c28f4c5847600b4de\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"886\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: New York Apple Store (Fifth Avenue).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约苹果店（第五大道）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Great business, good valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>生意好，估值好</b></blockquote></p><p> I can not start a debate about Apple stock price and valuations without emphasizing what seems obvious to me. Apple has been executing flawlessly as of late, both during the COVID-19 crisis and through the messy post-pandemic environment of supply chain challenges, limited access to physical stores, etc.</p><p><blockquote>我不能在不强调对我来说显而易见的事情的情况下开始关于苹果股价和估值的辩论。苹果最近一直完美地执行，无论是在新冠肺炎危机期间，还是在供应链挑战、实体店访问受限等混乱的大流行后环境中。</blockquote></p><p> That said, my main concern regarding Apple stock, if at all, tends to be valuations. Around mid-May, I presented the graph below as a key reason to “confidently buy Apple” on year-to-date weakness. Since the day of that article, AAPL has climbed 14% in just short of 12 weeks against the S&P 500’s 5% rise.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我对苹果股票的主要担忧（如果有的话）往往是估值。大约在 5 月中旬，我将下图作为 “自信买入苹果 ”年初至今疲软的关键原因。自那篇文章发表之日起，AAPL 在不到 12 周的时间里上涨了 14%，而标普500的涨幅仅为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac0b08108dea875dd3255e8f75f0987\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"518\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL - Historical valuation multiples.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AAPL - 历史估值倍数。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Counterintuitively, despite the recent rally, I think that Apple shares have started to head towards undervaluation once again. Think of current year P/E of 28 times as a starting point, which seems rich at first glance. This multiple is based on pre-earnings EPS consensus of $5.18 for fiscal 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与直觉相反，尽管最近上涨，但我认为苹果股票已经开始再次走向低估。以当年28倍的市盈率作为起点，乍一看似乎很丰厚。该倍数基于 2021 财年盈利前每股收益共识 5.18 美元。</blockquote></p><p> After July 27, Apple’s management team presented investors with two new pieces of information. First, fiscal Q3 consensus EPS of $1.01 proved to be understated by 29 cents. Mathematically, and adjusting only for the most recent earnings beat, full-year EPS estimates should have been closer to $5.47.</p><p><blockquote>7 月 27 日之后，苹果的管理团队向投资者提供了两条新信息。首先，第三财季 1.01 美元的共识每股收益被低估了 29 美分。从数学角度来看，仅根据最近的盈利数据进行调整，全年每股收益预期应该接近 5.47 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The other part was fiscal Q4 outlook. While Apple did not provide specific guidance on revenues, it offered directional commentary on sales and offered projections on other P&L items (see below):</p><p><blockquote>另一部分是第四季度财政展望。虽然苹果没有提供有关收入的具体指导，但它对销售提供了指导性评论，并对其他损益项目提供了预测（见下文）：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Revenue</b>: Double-digit growth, absent a COVID-19 comeback, but at a rate lower than the 36% seen in June quarter due to foreign exchange, normalization of services trend, and even worse supply constraints on iPhone and iPad.</li> <li><b>Below revenue line</b>: GM between 41.5% and 42.5%, opex between $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion, other income zero, tax rate of 16%.</li> </ul> I went ahead and plugged in the numbers. Wall Street projects revenue growth of 30% in fiscal Q4, which is in line with Apple’s vague outlook. Assuming the mid-point of the guidance range on all other P&L items, I estimate that next quarter’s EPS consensus should settle at $1.21 – about ten cents above where it currently stands.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收入</b>: 两位数的增长，没有 COVID-19 卷土重来，但由于外汇、服务正常化趋势以及 iPhone 和 iPad 更严重的供应限制，增长率低于 6 月份季度的 36%。</li><li><b>低于收入线</b>：GM在41.5%到42.5%之间，opex在113亿美元到115亿美元之间，其他收入为零，税率为16%。</li></ul>我继续输入数字。华尔街预计第四财季收入将增长 30%，这与苹果的模糊前景一致。假设所有其他损益项目的指导范围处于中点，我估计下一季度的每股收益共识应为 1.21 美元，比目前高出约 10 美分。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, consider that Apple has topped EPS consensus by 14 cents each quarter for the past ten periods. Add ten plus fourteen cents to the $5.47 mentioned above, and we are looking at a reasonable estimate of $5.71 in EPS for the current fiscal year. This represents a current P/E of only 25 times on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>最后，考虑一下苹果在过去十个时期的每个季度的每股收益都比市场预期高出 14 美分。在上述 5.47 美元的基础上加上 10 加 14 美分，我们对本财年每股收益的合理估计为 5.71 美元。这意味着该股目前的市盈率仅为 25 倍。</blockquote></p><p> This could be just an interesting coincidence, but a current-year P/E of 25 times was precisely the multiple that AAPL commanded in early May, before it leaped to nearly $150 per share last week. If I considered the stock a “confident buy” back then, I should have the same opinion now, at least for the sake of consistency.</p><p><blockquote>这可能只是一个有趣的巧合，但当年 25 倍的市盈率正是 AAPL 在上周跃升至近每股 150 美元之前 5 月初的倍数。如果我当时认为这只股票值得 “有信心买入”，那么现在我也应该有同样的看法，至少为了保持一致。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-is-cheap-here-is-why\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-is-cheap-here-is-why","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138453945","content_text":"Apple delivered strong Q3 results, but the stock went nowhere. The Apple Maven argues that AAPL is attractively valued once again. Here is why.\nDespiteApple’s outstanding fiscal third quarter numbers, reported on July 27, Apple stock failed to find support. Shares were down -1.2% after the quarterly report, after having dipped another -1.5% on earnings day itself.\nSome, including BMO Capital’s Tim Long, have argued that AAPL has reached fair valuation. I, on the other hand, believe that the stock has returned to being attractively priced. I present below the calculations that support my thesis.\nFigure 1: New York Apple Store (Fifth Avenue).\nGreat business, good valuation\nI can not start a debate about Apple stock price and valuations without emphasizing what seems obvious to me. Apple has been executing flawlessly as of late, both during the COVID-19 crisis and through the messy post-pandemic environment of supply chain challenges, limited access to physical stores, etc.\nThat said, my main concern regarding Apple stock, if at all, tends to be valuations. Around mid-May, I presented the graph below as a key reason to “confidently buy Apple” on year-to-date weakness. Since the day of that article, AAPL has climbed 14% in just short of 12 weeks against the S&P 500’s 5% rise.\nFigure 2: AAPL - Historical valuation multiples.\nCounterintuitively, despite the recent rally, I think that Apple shares have started to head towards undervaluation once again. Think of current year P/E of 28 times as a starting point, which seems rich at first glance. This multiple is based on pre-earnings EPS consensus of $5.18 for fiscal 2021.\nAfter July 27, Apple’s management team presented investors with two new pieces of information. First, fiscal Q3 consensus EPS of $1.01 proved to be understated by 29 cents. Mathematically, and adjusting only for the most recent earnings beat, full-year EPS estimates should have been closer to $5.47.\nThe other part was fiscal Q4 outlook. While Apple did not provide specific guidance on revenues, it offered directional commentary on sales and offered projections on other P&L items (see below):\n\nRevenue: Double-digit growth, absent a COVID-19 comeback, but at a rate lower than the 36% seen in June quarter due to foreign exchange, normalization of services trend, and even worse supply constraints on iPhone and iPad.\nBelow revenue line: GM between 41.5% and 42.5%, opex between $11.3 billion and $11.5 billion, other income zero, tax rate of 16%.\n\nI went ahead and plugged in the numbers. Wall Street projects revenue growth of 30% in fiscal Q4, which is in line with Apple’s vague outlook. Assuming the mid-point of the guidance range on all other P&L items, I estimate that next quarter’s EPS consensus should settle at $1.21 – about ten cents above where it currently stands.\nLastly, consider that Apple has topped EPS consensus by 14 cents each quarter for the past ten periods. Add ten plus fourteen cents to the $5.47 mentioned above, and we are looking at a reasonable estimate of $5.71 in EPS for the current fiscal year. This represents a current P/E of only 25 times on the stock.\nThis could be just an interesting coincidence, but a current-year P/E of 25 times was precisely the multiple that AAPL commanded in early May, before it leaped to nearly $150 per share last week. If I considered the stock a “confident buy” back then, I should have the same opinion now, at least for the sake of consistency.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3603,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/806103429"}
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