Lourdu
2021-07-31
Hi every one grad day
This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的分歧是对自满的警告</blockquote>
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This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数的表现与 “平均 ”股票大相径庭。这种情况已经持续了一段时间，不一定是牛市的 “杀手”，但肯定不是最健康的环境。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P,the NASDAQ-100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔、纳斯达克100指数和道琼斯工业平均指数都处于或接近历史高点。但罗素2000指数表现落后，反映出整体市场的内部实力较弱。内部测量显示，看跌期权买入相当多，许多日子的宽度较差，52周新低甚至多于新高。</blockquote></p><p> What is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.</p><p><blockquote>推动SPX和窄基指数的是数量相对较少的大型科技股。</blockquote></p><p> Similar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.</p><p><blockquote>类似的故事在过去已经上演过很多次——有些市场结果很糟糕，有些则没那么糟糕。但在大多数股票落后的情况下，维持牛市是极其困难的。</blockquote></p><p> Two rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there never<i>was</i>much of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.</p><p><blockquote>两个相当引人注目但肯定不是最近发生的事件是：1) 1973 年的“漂亮五十只”股票，它们似乎“无视地心引力”，在市场其他股票跌跌撞撞时继续上涨；最终，这种情况恶化为 1974 年的熊市，以及 2) 1994 年的“隐形熊市”，小盘股在这一年的大部分时间里都在下跌，但 SPX 在此期间基本持平；从来没有<i>什么</i>该指数大幅下降，直到年底一场不相关的丑闻（奥兰治县惨案）使其短暂下跌。</blockquote></p><p> This situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况并非不可逆转。如果要提高宽度，它可以 “纠正 ”自己。这仍然是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍处于看涨模式，因为它正在上升并高于支撑位。本周低点 4370 点附近有小幅支撑。然后在4233（7月低点）下方还有更重要的支撑。只要SPX保持在该水平之上，图表仍将呈现看涨态势。4160 和 4060 的进一步支撑位已经过充分测试，但远低于当前水平，用处不大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033187b97fbfadb4f302aff6d1e0e8c6\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.</p><p><blockquote>如随附的 SPX 图表所示，出现了麦克米伦波动带 (MVB) 卖出信号（图表右上角的绿色“S”）。此外，由于标准普尔指数的 20 天历史波动率已升至 11% 以上，现在也出现了已实现的波动率卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.</p><p><blockquote>纯股票看跌看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号，因为它们仍在上升。这表明过去一个月的看跌期权买入相对较多。从随附的图表中可以看出，标准比率的上升速度快于加权比率——但两者都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f1634f122ad3efa266cde27ddd8599\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786b9a1f7118e239186772ceb365b513\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.</p><p><blockquote>广度是当前市场正在经历的内部麻烦的最突出指标。当 SPX 创下历史新高时，它已经连续很多天为负值。因此，我们的宽度振荡器落后于市场。是的，它们发出了买入信号，但远未达到人们预期的纳斯达克 100 指数、标普500指数和陶氏工业指数处于或接近高点的积极水平。</blockquote></p><p> There was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，周三这里有一丝小小的改善，当时大盘当天持平，但宽度是积极的。我们最近没有看到那么多，但如果这种情况继续下去，这将利好股市。</blockquote></p><p> The cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.<i>That</i>is a negative divergence.</p><p><blockquote>累积宽度振荡指标继续滞后，这是负背离的“官方”衡量标准。在6月11日之前（包括6月11日）的13个交易日中，有10个交易日创下历史新高。从那以后，他们再也没有创下历史新高。与此同时，自该日起，SPX 已连续 13 个交易日创下历史新高。<i>那个</i>是负发散。</blockquote></p><p> It can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过改善累积宽度指标来克服——这是今年早些时候实现的。但是，就目前而言，这种负面分歧仍然是一个警告信号，提醒我们保持警惕，不要自满。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Over the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一周里，就纳斯达克数据和 “仅限股票 ”数据而言，52 周新低多于 52 周新高。然而，我们使用的指标是纽约证券交易所，新高设法在新低上保持了微弱领先优势。因此，该指标虽然走弱，但仍处于看涨状态。</blockquote></p><p> The one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>市场中没有表现出这些负面趋势的一个领域是隐含波动率——VIX及其交易产品。7 月 20 日的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。事实上，自 5 月 21 日以来，除了两个交易日外，一直存在连续的 “尖峰 ”买入信号。此外，由于200日移动平均线仍在下降，VIX的趋势仍然向下，并且远高于VIX 20日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647dc26baa4fe92b852e1a1585a5cc18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构对股票来说仍然是积极的。近月 8 月 VIX 期货交易价格较 VIX 溢价相当大，VIX 期货期限结构呈上升趋势。此外，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数期限结构向上倾斜。这些都构成了股市的看涨情景。8 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 9 月份 VIX 期货价格，预示着大盘面临的任何危险，但这并不迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p> So, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于 SPX 和 VIX 的趋势，市场的 “核心 ”前景仍然看涨。是的，内部人士警告不要自满，因此我们可以针对这一 “核心 ”看涨头寸发出卖出信号，但只要 SPX 保持在 4233 的支撑位上方，多头仍然占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: D.R. Horton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：D.R。霍顿</b></blockquote></p><p> D.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.</p><p><blockquote>博士HortonDHI,+0.50% 从其看跌看涨期权比率图表中发出了新的买入信号，但我们也希望上行突破来证实这一点。从下图可以看出，在看跌看涨期权比率图上（绿色 “B”）的极高水平出现了局部最高值，这是对该股极度悲观的一个例子，尽管该股自 5 月初以来的回调幅度并没有那么大。</blockquote></p><p> Put-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.</p><p><blockquote>看跌看涨期权比率信号本质上是相反的，因此如果公众极度悲观，我们希望乐观。这将以看涨期权买入的形式实现，但前提是 DHI 能够收于 93 点的阻力位上方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF DHI closes above 93,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果DHI收盘高于93，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后购买 2 DHI 9 月 (17) 92.5 评级</b></blockquote></p><p> DHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.</p><p><blockquote>DHI 目前交易价格高于 93，但我们希望在建立多头看涨期权头寸之前看到它收盘价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/006888c3a8db8d4a3ffa406ebfc2b2e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote></p><p> That is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except for<b>Cerner Corp.</b>CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.</p><p><blockquote>这是唯一的新建议。最近没有太多的收购传闻活动，除了<b>塞纳公司。</b>CERN,+1.38%然而，我们最近才退出了 Cerner 的头寸，因为收购传闻已经存在了很长时间，已经超过了我们评级的到期日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 102.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙 3 DUK 8 月 (20) 100 评级：</b>将跟踪止损提高到102。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长 4 DBX 8 月（13 日）30.5 评级：</b>将追踪止损提高到30.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:</b>The stop yourself remains at 26.</p><p><blockquote><b>长1 RAPT 8月（20日）30日看涨期权：</b>停止你自己仍然是26。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:</b>This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.</p><p><blockquote><b>长 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月 (20) 431 看涨期权：</b>该头寸是根据 7 月 20 日 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号买入的。自该日起继续持有22天。如果 VIX 在任何三天内（使用收盘价）上涨 3.00 点或以上，则该头寸将被平仓。如果它被阻止，那么在随后的买入信号上用平价看涨期权重新进入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to the<b>Sept (17th) 75 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17) 65 评级：</b>将跟踪停止提升到68。此外，如果止损点在 75 点交易，则向上滚动至<b>9月（17日）75评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:</b>This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（20 日）433 看跌期权和空头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（20 日）408 看跌期权：</b>该价差是根据纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号购买的。这些卖出信号仍然存在，因此继续持有这个价差。我们将每周更新情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:</b>These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 0 AVCT 8 月 (20) 5 日 评级：</b>当 American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30% 于 7 月 26 日收盘价低于 5 时，这些评级被停止。由于债务削减的消息，该股开始走弱，然后在该公司申请出售更多股票后大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:</b>Raise the stop to 22.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长5星8月（20日）22.5评级：</b>将止损提高到22.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:</b>Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 5 MGI 8 月（20 日）10 日评级：</b>最初不间断地持有此头寸，看看收购要约是否能实现。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的分歧是对自满的警告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的分歧是对自满的警告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-30 22:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish</p><p><blockquote>标普500的核心前景仍然看涨</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9a9d5fb12a2f91c146699e5be54c5c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数的表现与 “平均 ”股票大相径庭。这种情况已经持续了一段时间，不一定是牛市的 “杀手”，但肯定不是最健康的环境。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P,the NASDAQ-100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔、纳斯达克100指数和道琼斯工业平均指数都处于或接近历史高点。但罗素2000指数表现落后，反映出整体市场的内部实力较弱。内部测量显示，看跌期权买入相当多，许多日子的宽度较差，52周新低甚至多于新高。</blockquote></p><p> What is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.</p><p><blockquote>推动SPX和窄基指数的是数量相对较少的大型科技股。</blockquote></p><p> Similar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.</p><p><blockquote>类似的故事在过去已经上演过很多次——有些市场结果很糟糕，有些则没那么糟糕。但在大多数股票落后的情况下，维持牛市是极其困难的。</blockquote></p><p> Two rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there never<i>was</i>much of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.</p><p><blockquote>两个相当引人注目但肯定不是最近发生的事件是：1) 1973 年的“漂亮五十只”股票，它们似乎“无视地心引力”，在市场其他股票跌跌撞撞时继续上涨；最终，这种情况恶化为 1974 年的熊市，以及 2) 1994 年的“隐形熊市”，小盘股在这一年的大部分时间里都在下跌，但 SPX 在此期间基本持平；从来没有<i>什么</i>该指数大幅下降，直到年底一场不相关的丑闻（奥兰治县惨案）使其短暂下跌。</blockquote></p><p> This situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况并非不可逆转。如果要提高宽度，它可以 “纠正 ”自己。这仍然是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍处于看涨模式，因为它正在上升并高于支撑位。本周低点 4370 点附近有小幅支撑。然后在4233（7月低点）下方还有更重要的支撑。只要SPX保持在该水平之上，图表仍将呈现看涨态势。4160 和 4060 的进一步支撑位已经过充分测试，但远低于当前水平，用处不大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033187b97fbfadb4f302aff6d1e0e8c6\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.</p><p><blockquote>如随附的 SPX 图表所示，出现了麦克米伦波动带 (MVB) 卖出信号（图表右上角的绿色“S”）。此外，由于标准普尔指数的 20 天历史波动率已升至 11% 以上，现在也出现了已实现的波动率卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.</p><p><blockquote>纯股票看跌看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号，因为它们仍在上升。这表明过去一个月的看跌期权买入相对较多。从随附的图表中可以看出，标准比率的上升速度快于加权比率——但两者都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f1634f122ad3efa266cde27ddd8599\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786b9a1f7118e239186772ceb365b513\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.</p><p><blockquote>广度是当前市场正在经历的内部麻烦的最突出指标。当 SPX 创下历史新高时，它已经连续很多天为负值。因此，我们的宽度振荡器落后于市场。是的，它们发出了买入信号，但远未达到人们预期的纳斯达克 100 指数、标普500指数和陶氏工业指数处于或接近高点的积极水平。</blockquote></p><p> There was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，周三这里有一丝小小的改善，当时大盘当天持平，但宽度是积极的。我们最近没有看到那么多，但如果这种情况继续下去，这将利好股市。</blockquote></p><p> The cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.<i>That</i>is a negative divergence.</p><p><blockquote>累积宽度振荡指标继续滞后，这是负背离的“官方”衡量标准。在6月11日之前（包括6月11日）的13个交易日中，有10个交易日创下历史新高。从那以后，他们再也没有创下历史新高。与此同时，自该日起，SPX 已连续 13 个交易日创下历史新高。<i>那个</i>是负发散。</blockquote></p><p> It can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过改善累积宽度指标来克服——这是今年早些时候实现的。但是，就目前而言，这种负面分歧仍然是一个警告信号，提醒我们保持警惕，不要自满。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Over the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一周里，就纳斯达克数据和 “仅限股票 ”数据而言，52 周新低多于 52 周新高。然而，我们使用的指标是纽约证券交易所，新高设法在新低上保持了微弱领先优势。因此，该指标虽然走弱，但仍处于看涨状态。</blockquote></p><p> The one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>市场中没有表现出这些负面趋势的一个领域是隐含波动率——VIX及其交易产品。7 月 20 日的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。事实上，自 5 月 21 日以来，除了两个交易日外，一直存在连续的 “尖峰 ”买入信号。此外，由于200日移动平均线仍在下降，VIX的趋势仍然向下，并且远高于VIX 20日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647dc26baa4fe92b852e1a1585a5cc18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构对股票来说仍然是积极的。近月 8 月 VIX 期货交易价格较 VIX 溢价相当大，VIX 期货期限结构呈上升趋势。此外，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数期限结构向上倾斜。这些都构成了股市的看涨情景。8 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 9 月份 VIX 期货价格，预示着大盘面临的任何危险，但这并不迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p> So, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于 SPX 和 VIX 的趋势，市场的 “核心 ”前景仍然看涨。是的，内部人士警告不要自满，因此我们可以针对这一 “核心 ”看涨头寸发出卖出信号，但只要 SPX 保持在 4233 的支撑位上方，多头仍然占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: D.R. Horton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：D.R。霍顿</b></blockquote></p><p> D.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.</p><p><blockquote>博士HortonDHI,+0.50% 从其看跌看涨期权比率图表中发出了新的买入信号，但我们也希望上行突破来证实这一点。从下图可以看出，在看跌看涨期权比率图上（绿色 “B”）的极高水平出现了局部最高值，这是对该股极度悲观的一个例子，尽管该股自 5 月初以来的回调幅度并没有那么大。</blockquote></p><p> Put-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.</p><p><blockquote>看跌看涨期权比率信号本质上是相反的，因此如果公众极度悲观，我们希望乐观。这将以看涨期权买入的形式实现，但前提是 DHI 能够收于 93 点的阻力位上方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF DHI closes above 93,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果DHI收盘高于93，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后购买 2 DHI 9 月 (17) 92.5 评级</b></blockquote></p><p> DHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.</p><p><blockquote>DHI 目前交易价格高于 93，但我们希望在建立多头看涨期权头寸之前看到它收盘价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/006888c3a8db8d4a3ffa406ebfc2b2e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote></p><p> That is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except for<b>Cerner Corp.</b>CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.</p><p><blockquote>这是唯一的新建议。最近没有太多的收购传闻活动，除了<b>塞纳公司。</b>CERN,+1.38%然而，我们最近才退出了 Cerner 的头寸，因为收购传闻已经存在了很长时间，已经超过了我们评级的到期日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 102.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙 3 DUK 8 月 (20) 100 评级：</b>将跟踪止损提高到102。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长 4 DBX 8 月（13 日）30.5 评级：</b>将追踪止损提高到30.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:</b>The stop yourself remains at 26.</p><p><blockquote><b>长1 RAPT 8月（20日）30日看涨期权：</b>停止你自己仍然是26。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:</b>This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.</p><p><blockquote><b>长 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月 (20) 431 看涨期权：</b>该头寸是根据 7 月 20 日 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号买入的。自该日起继续持有22天。如果 VIX 在任何三天内（使用收盘价）上涨 3.00 点或以上，则该头寸将被平仓。如果它被阻止，那么在随后的买入信号上用平价看涨期权重新进入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to the<b>Sept (17th) 75 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17) 65 评级：</b>将跟踪停止提升到68。此外，如果止损点在 75 点交易，则向上滚动至<b>9月（17日）75评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:</b>This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（20 日）433 看跌期权和空头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（20 日）408 看跌期权：</b>该价差是根据纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号购买的。这些卖出信号仍然存在，因此继续持有这个价差。我们将每周更新情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:</b>These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 0 AVCT 8 月 (20) 5 日 评级：</b>当 American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30% 于 7 月 26 日收盘价低于 5 时，这些评级被停止。由于债务削减的消息，该股开始走弱，然后在该公司申请出售更多股票后大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:</b>Raise the stop to 22.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长5星8月（20日）22.5评级：</b>将止损提高到22.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:</b>Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头 5 MGI 8 月（20 日）10 日评级：</b>最初不间断地持有此头寸，看看收购要约是否能实现。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198838390","content_text":"S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.\nThe S&P,the NASDAQ-100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.\nWhat is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.\nSimilar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.\nTwo rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there neverwasmuch of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.\nThis situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.\nThe SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.\nThere was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.\nThe cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.Thatis a negative divergence.\nIt can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.\nOver the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.\nThe one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.\nSo, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.\nNew Recommendation: D.R. Horton\nD.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.\nPut-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.\nIF DHI closes above 93,\nTHEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls\nDHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThat is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except forCerner Corp.CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 102.\nLong 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.\nLong 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:The stop yourself remains at 26.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.\nLong 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to theSept (17th) 75 calls.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.\nLong 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.\nLong 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:Raise the stop to 22.20.\nLong 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":972,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["AONE","AONE.U"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/806561536"}
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