yeelyn18
2021-08-04
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NIO: Growth Is Set To Accelerate<blockquote>蔚来：增长将加速</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":807438323,"tweetId":"807438323","gmtCreate":1628048610062,"gmtModify":1633754042705,"author":{"id":3574914526090483,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorId":3574914526090483,"authorIdStr":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":14,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Cool</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Cool</p></body></html>","text":"Cool","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807438323","repostId":1123278856,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123278856","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628046173,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123278856?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 11:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: Growth Is Set To Accelerate<blockquote>蔚来：增长将加速</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123278856","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNIO’s delivery growth in July accelerated over the previous month.\nBecause of this strong s","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO’s delivery growth in July accelerated over the previous month.</li> <li>Because of this strong start to Q3, I am updating my FY 2021 delivery estimate.</li> <li>As the semiconductor supply shortage eases, NIO’s delivery growth should further accelerate.</li> <li>Based on valuation and estimated sales growth, NIO is a buy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241262452bbefb6f4187cbdc8ada9bef\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SimonSkafar/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来7月交付量环比增速加快。</li><li>由于第三季度开局强劲，我正在更新2021财年的交付预估。</li><li>随着半导体供应短缺的缓解，蔚来的交付增长应该会进一步加快。</li><li>根据估值和预计销售增长，蔚来值得买入。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SimonSkafar/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO (NIO) saw impressive delivery growth in July which indicates stronger than expected growth for the second half of the year… which should also see a normalization in production as the chip supply shortage eases. NIO is not cheap, but impressive delivery and sales growth justify a high sales multiplier factor.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）7月份的交付量增长令人印象深刻，这表明下半年的增长强于预期……随着芯片供应短缺的缓解，生产也应该会正常化。蔚来并不便宜，但令人印象深刻的交付和销售增长证明了高销售乘数因素的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's delivery growth may accelerate toward the end of the year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>临近年底蔚来交付量增速或将加速</b></blockquote></p><p> For the month of July, NIO reported124.5% Y/Y delivery growth. The Chinese EV maker delivered 7,931 vehicles last month, the majority of which were NIO's five-seater smart electric SUV, the ES6. NIO delivered 3,669 ES6s (46% of total deliveries), 2,560 EC6s vehicles (32% of deliveries), which is NIO's five-seater electric coupe sport utility vehicle, and 1,702 ES8s (21% of deliveries), which is NIO's six or seven-seater smart electric SUV. NIO's ES6 is the best-selling EV SUV in the Chinese maker's product line-up and it has the highest delivery volume. If we break down the growth rate by model, then the ES6 saw 41% Y/Y delivery growth and the ES8 saw 84% Y/Y growth. In July 2020, NIO delivered just 3,533 ES8s and ES6s and deliveries of the EC6 coupe SUV commenced only in September 2020. NIO's 124.5% Y/Y growth rate reported for July, although impressive on its own, may underestimate NIO's total delivery growth for the second half of the year as production returns to normal and EC6 sales start to make a larger impact.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来报告7月份交付量同比增长124.5%。这家中国电动汽车制造商上个月交付了7,931辆汽车，其中大部分是蔚来的五座智能电动SUV ES6。蔚来交付了3,669辆ES6（占总交付量的46%）、2,560辆EC6s（占交付量的32%），这是蔚来的五座电动轿跑车运动型多功能车，以及1,702辆ES8（占交付量的21%），这是蔚来的六座或七座智能电动SUV。蔚来的ES6是这家中国制造商产品线中最畅销的电动SUV，也是交付量最高的。如果我们按车型细分增长率，那么ES6的交付量同比增长41%，ES8的交付量同比增长84%。2020年7月，蔚来仅交付了3,533辆ES8和ES6，EC6轿跑车SUV直到2020年9月才开始交付。蔚来公布的7月份124.5%的同比增长率虽然本身令人印象深刻，但随着生产恢复正常和EC6销售开始产生更大影响，可能会低估蔚来下半年的总交付量增长。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ES6 and the EC6 deliveries saw a small delivery dip in July, which may be attributable to the chip supply shortage rather than slowing demand. However, the drop in deliveries for these two models was countered by an increase in ES8 deliveries. The net effect was that NIO delivered 152 fewer vehicles in July than it delivered in June. I expect ES6 and EC6 models to resume growth throughout Q3'21 and NIO, like other car brands, should benefit from an improving flow of semiconductors in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来ES6和EC6 7月份交付量小幅下降，这可能归因于芯片供应短缺，而不是需求放缓。然而，这两款车型交付量的下降被ES8交付量的增加所抵消。净影响是蔚来7月份的汽车交付量比6月份减少了152辆。我预计ES6和EC6车型将在21年第三季度恢复增长，蔚来与其他汽车品牌一样，应该会受益于下半年半导体流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aac41720554953fda9f50597692affe\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"559\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> Despite supply problems with semiconductors, NIO's growth accelerated in July. NIO's July delivery growth rate of 124.5% exceeded delivery growth in June, a month that saw 116.1% growth over last year. In July 2020, NIO's Y/Y delivery growth rate was 322.1% because the delivery volume was much lower in FY 2019, making for a very favorable Y/Y comparison.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>尽管半导体存在供应问题，但蔚来的增长在7月份加速。蔚来7月份的交付增长率为124.5%，超过了6月份的交付增长率，6月份的交付增长率比去年增长了116.1%。2020年7月，蔚来的同比交付增长率为322.1%，因为2019财年的交付量要低得多，这使得同比比较非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's EV rivals, XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI), did better. XPeng delivered 8,040 vehicles in July 2021, showing 228% Y/Y growth. Delivery growth was driven by XPeng's P7s, the Company's sports smart sedan, of which the Chinese EV maker sold 6,054 models. XPeng also sold 1,986 G3s, its compact SUV, which competes against NIO's range of sport utility vehicles. Li Auto also delivered record results with 8,589 Li ONEs delivered in July 2021. The delivery numbers showed 251.3% Y/Y growth. The Li ONE is Li Auto's six-seater electric SUV and it competes for buyers against NIO's ES8. It was the first time for Li Auto to cross the milestone of 8,000 monthly deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电动汽车竞争对手小鹏汽车（XPEV）和理想汽车（LI）表现更好。小鹏汽车2021年7月交付汽车8,040辆，同比增长228%。交付量增长是由小鹏汽车的运动型智能轿车P7s推动的，这家中国电动汽车制造商售出了6,054辆。小鹏汽车还售出了1,986辆G3，这是一款紧凑型SUV，可与蔚来的运动型多用途车系列竞争。理想汽车也取得了创纪录的成绩，2021年7月交付了8,589辆Li One。交付数量同比增长251.3%。Li ONE是理想汽车的六座电动SUV，它与蔚来的ES8争夺买家。这是理想汽车首次突破每月交付量8,000辆的里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the delivery reports, XPeng and Li Auto have stronger delivery growth rates and each EV maker sold more vehicles than NIO in July. NIO lagged its rivals in July deliveries, but its SUV-centric line-up products nevertheless impressive growth. Because of an expected return to normal production in the second half of the year, I expect NIO's growth to continue to accelerate in the remaining five months of the year. Ford said last week that it sees an improving semiconductor supply situation although chips will continue to be in short supply at least until the end of the year. I expect similar comments from NIO next week when earnings are due at which point management may give a new production/delivery guidance.</p><p><blockquote>根据交付报告，小鹏汽车和理想汽车的交付增长率更强劲，每家电动汽车制造商7月份的汽车销量都超过了蔚来。蔚来7月份的交付量落后于竞争对手，但其以SUV为中心的产品线仍取得了令人印象深刻的增长。由于预计下半年生产将恢复正常，我预计蔚来的增长将在今年剩余的五个月内继续加速。福特上周表示，尽管芯片至少在今年年底前仍将持续短缺，但它认为半导体供应形势正在改善。我预计蔚来下周财报发布时也会发表类似评论，届时管理层可能会给出新的生产/交付指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO lowered its Q1'21 production forecast because of the semiconductor shortage to 19,500 models, which indicated 1,000 fewer vehicles to be delivered than called for in its earlier guidance of 20,000-20,500 vehicles. NIO ultimately ended up delivering 20,060 in Q1'21. NIO's Q2 saw deliveries of 21,896, so the Chinese EV maker did better in deliveries than its guidance suggested. Because of this, I expect that production can ramp up significantly in Q3 and Q4 as the chip supply shortage becomes less of a production choke point for NIO. I estimate that NIO will edge closer to the 100,000-delivery milestone this year with growth being driven predominantly by the EC6 and ES8. For Q3'21, I expect NIO to average more than 8,000 monthly deliveries, with the average of monthly deliveries growing to a little bit above 10,000 in Q4'21. Compared to my previous guidance, the FY 2021 delivery estimate reflects an additional 1,840 vehicles to be sold in the second half of 2021. So far, NIO delivered 49,887 models in 2021 (including July deliveries) which is equivalent to 50.4% of my full year delivery estimate.</p><p><blockquote>由于半导体短缺，蔚来将21年第一季度的产量预测下调至19,500辆，这表明交付量比之前指导的20,000-20,500辆少1,000辆。蔚来最终在21年第一季度交付了20,060辆。蔚来第二季度的交付量为21,896辆，因此这家中国电动汽车制造商的交付量好于其指导建议。因此，我预计随着芯片供应短缺不再成为蔚来的生产瓶颈，第三季度和第四季度的产量可能会大幅增加。我估计蔚来今年的交付量将接近10万辆的里程碑，增长主要由EC6和ES8推动。对于21年第三季度，我预计蔚来的平均月交付量将超过8,000辆，21年第四季度的平均月交付量将增长至略高于10,000辆。与我之前的指导相比，2021财年的交付预期反映了2021年下半年将额外销售1,840辆汽车。到目前为止，蔚来在2021年交付了49,887辆车型（包括7月交付量），相当于我全年交付量预期的50.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb9b5de9002f17836d0c5fa3b3034f0\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"443\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author Projections)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's sales are expected to grow rapidly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来销量有望快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is expected to have sales of $8.9B next year, twice as much as XPeng… which has the same P-S ratio than NIO. Li Auto has the cheapest sales growth as FY 2022 revenues are valued with a 5.2 sales multiplier factor. Looking at estimated 5-year revenue growth, Li Auto is expected to grow sales the fastest, in part because of its smaller size. However, NIO will still have very impressive revenue growth of 310% until 2025 (based on next year's sales). Because of NIO's BaaS revenue opportunity (which is better than XPeng's battery lease model), I would choose NIO over the other two Chinese EV makers... despite the lower total sales growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来明年的销售额预计为$8.9 B，是小鹏汽车的两倍……小鹏汽车的市盈率与蔚来相同。理想汽车的销售增长最便宜，因为2022财年收入的销售乘数为5.2。从预计的5年收入增长来看，理想汽车预计销售额增长最快，部分原因是其规模较小。然而，蔚来在2025年之前仍将有310%的非常可观的收入增长（基于明年的销售额）。由于蔚来的BaaS收入机会（比小鹏的电池租赁模式更好），我会选择蔚来而不是其他两家中国电动汽车制造商……尽管总销售额增长率较低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c5132b85c6e35c18744ec71c7b2e85\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with NIO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The chip supply shortage will be the factor that decides how quickly NIO can return to full production and how quickly deliveries will grow. The EV maker will likely give an update next week when it opens its books for the second quarter. The status update will likely include a modified production guidance for the rest of the year which should be positive if management expects the semiconductor situation to improve, which is what I would expect. What would change my opinion on NIO, and perhaps NIO's valuation, is a slowdown in delivery growth rates which I don't consider in my full year delivery estimate. Slower delivery and revenue growth are the two biggest risks for NIO and the stock.</p><p><blockquote>芯片供应短缺将是决定蔚来恢复全面生产的速度以及交付量增长速度的因素。这家电动汽车制造商可能会在下周公布第二季度账目时提供最新信息。状态更新可能会包括修改后的今年剩余时间的生产指导，如果管理层预计半导体形势会有所改善，这应该是积极的，这也是我所期望的。改变我对蔚来的看法，或许还有蔚来估值的是交付增长率的放缓，我在全年交付预测中没有考虑到这一点。交付放缓和收入增长是蔚来和该股面临的两个最大风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I expect NIO to return to a monthly production of at least 10,000 vehicles by Q4'21 as the chip supply situation eases in the next five months… that at least was the takeaway from Ford's Q2'21 earnings and NIO should similarly experience a better flow of semiconductors. This would clear a major production choke point, giving NIO room to ramp up production in 2021 and accelerate its growth.</p><p><blockquote>我预计，随着芯片供应情况在未来五个月内缓解，蔚来将在21年第4季度恢复到每月至少10,000辆汽车的产量……这至少是福特21年第2季度收益的结论，蔚来也应该同样经历更好的增长半导体的流动。这将消除一个主要的生产瓶颈，为蔚来在2021年提高产量并加速增长提供空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Growth Is Set To Accelerate<blockquote>蔚来：增长将加速</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Growth Is Set To Accelerate<blockquote>蔚来：增长将加速</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 11:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO’s delivery growth in July accelerated over the previous month.</li> <li>Because of this strong start to Q3, I am updating my FY 2021 delivery estimate.</li> <li>As the semiconductor supply shortage eases, NIO’s delivery growth should further accelerate.</li> <li>Based on valuation and estimated sales growth, NIO is a buy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241262452bbefb6f4187cbdc8ada9bef\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SimonSkafar/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来7月交付量环比增速加快。</li><li>由于第三季度开局强劲，我正在更新2021财年的交付预估。</li><li>随着半导体供应短缺的缓解，蔚来的交付增长应该会进一步加快。</li><li>根据估值和预计销售增长，蔚来值得买入。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SimonSkafar/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO (NIO) saw impressive delivery growth in July which indicates stronger than expected growth for the second half of the year… which should also see a normalization in production as the chip supply shortage eases. NIO is not cheap, but impressive delivery and sales growth justify a high sales multiplier factor.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）7月份的交付量增长令人印象深刻，这表明下半年的增长强于预期……随着芯片供应短缺的缓解，生产也应该会正常化。蔚来并不便宜，但令人印象深刻的交付和销售增长证明了高销售乘数因素的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's delivery growth may accelerate toward the end of the year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>临近年底蔚来交付量增速或将加速</b></blockquote></p><p> For the month of July, NIO reported124.5% Y/Y delivery growth. The Chinese EV maker delivered 7,931 vehicles last month, the majority of which were NIO's five-seater smart electric SUV, the ES6. NIO delivered 3,669 ES6s (46% of total deliveries), 2,560 EC6s vehicles (32% of deliveries), which is NIO's five-seater electric coupe sport utility vehicle, and 1,702 ES8s (21% of deliveries), which is NIO's six or seven-seater smart electric SUV. NIO's ES6 is the best-selling EV SUV in the Chinese maker's product line-up and it has the highest delivery volume. If we break down the growth rate by model, then the ES6 saw 41% Y/Y delivery growth and the ES8 saw 84% Y/Y growth. In July 2020, NIO delivered just 3,533 ES8s and ES6s and deliveries of the EC6 coupe SUV commenced only in September 2020. NIO's 124.5% Y/Y growth rate reported for July, although impressive on its own, may underestimate NIO's total delivery growth for the second half of the year as production returns to normal and EC6 sales start to make a larger impact.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来报告7月份交付量同比增长124.5%。这家中国电动汽车制造商上个月交付了7,931辆汽车，其中大部分是蔚来的五座智能电动SUV ES6。蔚来交付了3,669辆ES6（占总交付量的46%）、2,560辆EC6s（占交付量的32%），这是蔚来的五座电动轿跑车运动型多功能车，以及1,702辆ES8（占交付量的21%），这是蔚来的六座或七座智能电动SUV。蔚来的ES6是这家中国制造商产品线中最畅销的电动SUV，也是交付量最高的。如果我们按车型细分增长率，那么ES6的交付量同比增长41%，ES8的交付量同比增长84%。2020年7月，蔚来仅交付了3,533辆ES8和ES6，EC6轿跑车SUV直到2020年9月才开始交付。蔚来公布的7月份124.5%的同比增长率虽然本身令人印象深刻，但随着生产恢复正常和EC6销售开始产生更大影响，可能会低估蔚来下半年的总交付量增长。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ES6 and the EC6 deliveries saw a small delivery dip in July, which may be attributable to the chip supply shortage rather than slowing demand. However, the drop in deliveries for these two models was countered by an increase in ES8 deliveries. The net effect was that NIO delivered 152 fewer vehicles in July than it delivered in June. I expect ES6 and EC6 models to resume growth throughout Q3'21 and NIO, like other car brands, should benefit from an improving flow of semiconductors in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来ES6和EC6 7月份交付量小幅下降，这可能归因于芯片供应短缺，而不是需求放缓。然而，这两款车型交付量的下降被ES8交付量的增加所抵消。净影响是蔚来7月份的汽车交付量比6月份减少了152辆。我预计ES6和EC6车型将在21年第三季度恢复增长，蔚来与其他汽车品牌一样，应该会受益于下半年半导体流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aac41720554953fda9f50597692affe\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"559\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> Despite supply problems with semiconductors, NIO's growth accelerated in July. NIO's July delivery growth rate of 124.5% exceeded delivery growth in June, a month that saw 116.1% growth over last year. In July 2020, NIO's Y/Y delivery growth rate was 322.1% because the delivery volume was much lower in FY 2019, making for a very favorable Y/Y comparison.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>尽管半导体存在供应问题，但蔚来的增长在7月份加速。蔚来7月份的交付增长率为124.5%，超过了6月份的交付增长率，6月份的交付增长率比去年增长了116.1%。2020年7月，蔚来的同比交付增长率为322.1%，因为2019财年的交付量要低得多，这使得同比比较非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's EV rivals, XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI), did better. XPeng delivered 8,040 vehicles in July 2021, showing 228% Y/Y growth. Delivery growth was driven by XPeng's P7s, the Company's sports smart sedan, of which the Chinese EV maker sold 6,054 models. XPeng also sold 1,986 G3s, its compact SUV, which competes against NIO's range of sport utility vehicles. Li Auto also delivered record results with 8,589 Li ONEs delivered in July 2021. The delivery numbers showed 251.3% Y/Y growth. The Li ONE is Li Auto's six-seater electric SUV and it competes for buyers against NIO's ES8. It was the first time for Li Auto to cross the milestone of 8,000 monthly deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电动汽车竞争对手小鹏汽车（XPEV）和理想汽车（LI）表现更好。小鹏汽车2021年7月交付汽车8,040辆，同比增长228%。交付量增长是由小鹏汽车的运动型智能轿车P7s推动的，这家中国电动汽车制造商售出了6,054辆。小鹏汽车还售出了1,986辆G3，这是一款紧凑型SUV，可与蔚来的运动型多用途车系列竞争。理想汽车也取得了创纪录的成绩，2021年7月交付了8,589辆Li One。交付数量同比增长251.3%。Li ONE是理想汽车的六座电动SUV，它与蔚来的ES8争夺买家。这是理想汽车首次突破每月交付量8,000辆的里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the delivery reports, XPeng and Li Auto have stronger delivery growth rates and each EV maker sold more vehicles than NIO in July. NIO lagged its rivals in July deliveries, but its SUV-centric line-up products nevertheless impressive growth. Because of an expected return to normal production in the second half of the year, I expect NIO's growth to continue to accelerate in the remaining five months of the year. Ford said last week that it sees an improving semiconductor supply situation although chips will continue to be in short supply at least until the end of the year. I expect similar comments from NIO next week when earnings are due at which point management may give a new production/delivery guidance.</p><p><blockquote>根据交付报告，小鹏汽车和理想汽车的交付增长率更强劲，每家电动汽车制造商7月份的汽车销量都超过了蔚来。蔚来7月份的交付量落后于竞争对手，但其以SUV为中心的产品线仍取得了令人印象深刻的增长。由于预计下半年生产将恢复正常，我预计蔚来的增长将在今年剩余的五个月内继续加速。福特上周表示，尽管芯片至少在今年年底前仍将持续短缺，但它认为半导体供应形势正在改善。我预计蔚来下周财报发布时也会发表类似评论，届时管理层可能会给出新的生产/交付指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO lowered its Q1'21 production forecast because of the semiconductor shortage to 19,500 models, which indicated 1,000 fewer vehicles to be delivered than called for in its earlier guidance of 20,000-20,500 vehicles. NIO ultimately ended up delivering 20,060 in Q1'21. NIO's Q2 saw deliveries of 21,896, so the Chinese EV maker did better in deliveries than its guidance suggested. Because of this, I expect that production can ramp up significantly in Q3 and Q4 as the chip supply shortage becomes less of a production choke point for NIO. I estimate that NIO will edge closer to the 100,000-delivery milestone this year with growth being driven predominantly by the EC6 and ES8. For Q3'21, I expect NIO to average more than 8,000 monthly deliveries, with the average of monthly deliveries growing to a little bit above 10,000 in Q4'21. Compared to my previous guidance, the FY 2021 delivery estimate reflects an additional 1,840 vehicles to be sold in the second half of 2021. So far, NIO delivered 49,887 models in 2021 (including July deliveries) which is equivalent to 50.4% of my full year delivery estimate.</p><p><blockquote>由于半导体短缺，蔚来将21年第一季度的产量预测下调至19,500辆，这表明交付量比之前指导的20,000-20,500辆少1,000辆。蔚来最终在21年第一季度交付了20,060辆。蔚来第二季度的交付量为21,896辆，因此这家中国电动汽车制造商的交付量好于其指导建议。因此，我预计随着芯片供应短缺不再成为蔚来的生产瓶颈，第三季度和第四季度的产量可能会大幅增加。我估计蔚来今年的交付量将接近10万辆的里程碑，增长主要由EC6和ES8推动。对于21年第三季度，我预计蔚来的平均月交付量将超过8,000辆，21年第四季度的平均月交付量将增长至略高于10,000辆。与我之前的指导相比，2021财年的交付预期反映了2021年下半年将额外销售1,840辆汽车。到目前为止，蔚来在2021年交付了49,887辆车型（包括7月交付量），相当于我全年交付量预期的50.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb9b5de9002f17836d0c5fa3b3034f0\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"443\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author Projections)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's sales are expected to grow rapidly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来销量有望快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is expected to have sales of $8.9B next year, twice as much as XPeng… which has the same P-S ratio than NIO. Li Auto has the cheapest sales growth as FY 2022 revenues are valued with a 5.2 sales multiplier factor. Looking at estimated 5-year revenue growth, Li Auto is expected to grow sales the fastest, in part because of its smaller size. However, NIO will still have very impressive revenue growth of 310% until 2025 (based on next year's sales). Because of NIO's BaaS revenue opportunity (which is better than XPeng's battery lease model), I would choose NIO over the other two Chinese EV makers... despite the lower total sales growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来明年的销售额预计为$8.9 B，是小鹏汽车的两倍……小鹏汽车的市盈率与蔚来相同。理想汽车的销售增长最便宜，因为2022财年收入的销售乘数为5.2。从预计的5年收入增长来看，理想汽车预计销售额增长最快，部分原因是其规模较小。然而，蔚来在2025年之前仍将有310%的非常可观的收入增长（基于明年的销售额）。由于蔚来的BaaS收入机会（比小鹏的电池租赁模式更好），我会选择蔚来而不是其他两家中国电动汽车制造商……尽管总销售额增长率较低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c5132b85c6e35c18744ec71c7b2e85\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with NIO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The chip supply shortage will be the factor that decides how quickly NIO can return to full production and how quickly deliveries will grow. The EV maker will likely give an update next week when it opens its books for the second quarter. The status update will likely include a modified production guidance for the rest of the year which should be positive if management expects the semiconductor situation to improve, which is what I would expect. What would change my opinion on NIO, and perhaps NIO's valuation, is a slowdown in delivery growth rates which I don't consider in my full year delivery estimate. Slower delivery and revenue growth are the two biggest risks for NIO and the stock.</p><p><blockquote>芯片供应短缺将是决定蔚来恢复全面生产的速度以及交付量增长速度的因素。这家电动汽车制造商可能会在下周公布第二季度账目时提供最新信息。状态更新可能会包括修改后的今年剩余时间的生产指导，如果管理层预计半导体形势会有所改善，这应该是积极的，这也是我所期望的。改变我对蔚来的看法，或许还有蔚来估值的是交付增长率的放缓，我在全年交付预测中没有考虑到这一点。交付放缓和收入增长是蔚来和该股面临的两个最大风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I expect NIO to return to a monthly production of at least 10,000 vehicles by Q4'21 as the chip supply situation eases in the next five months… that at least was the takeaway from Ford's Q2'21 earnings and NIO should similarly experience a better flow of semiconductors. This would clear a major production choke point, giving NIO room to ramp up production in 2021 and accelerate its growth.</p><p><blockquote>我预计，随着芯片供应情况在未来五个月内缓解，蔚来将在21年第4季度恢复到每月至少10,000辆汽车的产量……这至少是福特21年第2季度收益的结论，蔚来也应该同样经历更好的增长半导体的流动。这将消除一个主要的生产瓶颈，为蔚来在2021年提高产量并加速增长提供空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444428-nio-growth-is-set-to-accelerate\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444428-nio-growth-is-set-to-accelerate","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123278856","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO’s delivery growth in July accelerated over the previous month.\nBecause of this strong start to Q3, I am updating my FY 2021 delivery estimate.\nAs the semiconductor supply shortage eases, NIO’s delivery growth should further accelerate.\nBased on valuation and estimated sales growth, NIO is a buy.\n\nSimonSkafar/iStock via Getty Images\nNIO (NIO) saw impressive delivery growth in July which indicates stronger than expected growth for the second half of the year… which should also see a normalization in production as the chip supply shortage eases. NIO is not cheap, but impressive delivery and sales growth justify a high sales multiplier factor.\nNIO's delivery growth may accelerate toward the end of the year\nFor the month of July, NIO reported124.5% Y/Y delivery growth. The Chinese EV maker delivered 7,931 vehicles last month, the majority of which were NIO's five-seater smart electric SUV, the ES6. NIO delivered 3,669 ES6s (46% of total deliveries), 2,560 EC6s vehicles (32% of deliveries), which is NIO's five-seater electric coupe sport utility vehicle, and 1,702 ES8s (21% of deliveries), which is NIO's six or seven-seater smart electric SUV. NIO's ES6 is the best-selling EV SUV in the Chinese maker's product line-up and it has the highest delivery volume. If we break down the growth rate by model, then the ES6 saw 41% Y/Y delivery growth and the ES8 saw 84% Y/Y growth. In July 2020, NIO delivered just 3,533 ES8s and ES6s and deliveries of the EC6 coupe SUV commenced only in September 2020. NIO's 124.5% Y/Y growth rate reported for July, although impressive on its own, may underestimate NIO's total delivery growth for the second half of the year as production returns to normal and EC6 sales start to make a larger impact.\nNIO's ES6 and the EC6 deliveries saw a small delivery dip in July, which may be attributable to the chip supply shortage rather than slowing demand. However, the drop in deliveries for these two models was countered by an increase in ES8 deliveries. The net effect was that NIO delivered 152 fewer vehicles in July than it delivered in June. I expect ES6 and EC6 models to resume growth throughout Q3'21 and NIO, like other car brands, should benefit from an improving flow of semiconductors in the second half of the year.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nDespite supply problems with semiconductors, NIO's growth accelerated in July. NIO's July delivery growth rate of 124.5% exceeded delivery growth in June, a month that saw 116.1% growth over last year. In July 2020, NIO's Y/Y delivery growth rate was 322.1% because the delivery volume was much lower in FY 2019, making for a very favorable Y/Y comparison.\nNIO's EV rivals, XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI), did better. XPeng delivered 8,040 vehicles in July 2021, showing 228% Y/Y growth. Delivery growth was driven by XPeng's P7s, the Company's sports smart sedan, of which the Chinese EV maker sold 6,054 models. XPeng also sold 1,986 G3s, its compact SUV, which competes against NIO's range of sport utility vehicles. Li Auto also delivered record results with 8,589 Li ONEs delivered in July 2021. The delivery numbers showed 251.3% Y/Y growth. The Li ONE is Li Auto's six-seater electric SUV and it competes for buyers against NIO's ES8. It was the first time for Li Auto to cross the milestone of 8,000 monthly deliveries.\nBased on the delivery reports, XPeng and Li Auto have stronger delivery growth rates and each EV maker sold more vehicles than NIO in July. NIO lagged its rivals in July deliveries, but its SUV-centric line-up products nevertheless impressive growth. Because of an expected return to normal production in the second half of the year, I expect NIO's growth to continue to accelerate in the remaining five months of the year. Ford said last week that it sees an improving semiconductor supply situation although chips will continue to be in short supply at least until the end of the year. I expect similar comments from NIO next week when earnings are due at which point management may give a new production/delivery guidance.\nNIO lowered its Q1'21 production forecast because of the semiconductor shortage to 19,500 models, which indicated 1,000 fewer vehicles to be delivered than called for in its earlier guidance of 20,000-20,500 vehicles. NIO ultimately ended up delivering 20,060 in Q1'21. NIO's Q2 saw deliveries of 21,896, so the Chinese EV maker did better in deliveries than its guidance suggested. Because of this, I expect that production can ramp up significantly in Q3 and Q4 as the chip supply shortage becomes less of a production choke point for NIO. I estimate that NIO will edge closer to the 100,000-delivery milestone this year with growth being driven predominantly by the EC6 and ES8. For Q3'21, I expect NIO to average more than 8,000 monthly deliveries, with the average of monthly deliveries growing to a little bit above 10,000 in Q4'21. Compared to my previous guidance, the FY 2021 delivery estimate reflects an additional 1,840 vehicles to be sold in the second half of 2021. So far, NIO delivered 49,887 models in 2021 (including July deliveries) which is equivalent to 50.4% of my full year delivery estimate.\n(Source: Author Projections)\nNIO's sales are expected to grow rapidly\nNIO is expected to have sales of $8.9B next year, twice as much as XPeng… which has the same P-S ratio than NIO. Li Auto has the cheapest sales growth as FY 2022 revenues are valued with a 5.2 sales multiplier factor. Looking at estimated 5-year revenue growth, Li Auto is expected to grow sales the fastest, in part because of its smaller size. However, NIO will still have very impressive revenue growth of 310% until 2025 (based on next year's sales). Because of NIO's BaaS revenue opportunity (which is better than XPeng's battery lease model), I would choose NIO over the other two Chinese EV makers... despite the lower total sales growth rate.\n(Source: Author)\nRisks with NIO\nThe chip supply shortage will be the factor that decides how quickly NIO can return to full production and how quickly deliveries will grow. The EV maker will likely give an update next week when it opens its books for the second quarter. The status update will likely include a modified production guidance for the rest of the year which should be positive if management expects the semiconductor situation to improve, which is what I would expect. What would change my opinion on NIO, and perhaps NIO's valuation, is a slowdown in delivery growth rates which I don't consider in my full year delivery estimate. Slower delivery and revenue growth are the two biggest risks for NIO and the stock.\nFinal thoughts\nI expect NIO to return to a monthly production of at least 10,000 vehicles by Q4'21 as the chip supply situation eases in the next five months… that at least was the takeaway from Ford's Q2'21 earnings and NIO should similarly experience a better flow of semiconductors. This would clear a major production choke point, giving NIO room to ramp up production in 2021 and accelerate its growth.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/807438323"}
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