LiJi
2021-07-29
anyone invested?
Tilray: Same Tired Story<blockquote>Tilray：同样令人厌倦的故事</blockquote>
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Unfortunately, the Canadian cannabis company failed to provide pro-forma numbers for the combination. My investment thesis remains Bearish on the stock after the 20% rally in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>开市前，<b>蒂尔雷</b>(TLRY)报告了第四季度业绩，提供了Aphria和Tilray业务合并后的第一个季度业绩。不幸的是，加拿大大麻公司未能提供合并的预计数据。在早盘上涨20%后，我的投资论点仍然看跌该股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Confusing Quarter</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人困惑的季度</b></blockquote></p><p> The new Tilray reported May quarterly numbers that only included four weeks of results from the old Tilray. Revenues were reported as reaching $142.2 million for 25% growth from last FQ4, but the numbers are absolutely worthless without the pro-forma numbers. Last FQ4, the new Tilray reported revenue of $159.8 million without even including revenues from SweetWater which now accounts for over $15 million of net revenues.</p><p><blockquote>新Tilray报告的5月份季度数据仅包括旧Tilray四周的业绩。据报道，收入达到1.422亿美元，较上一季度增长25%，但如果没有预计数据，这些数字绝对毫无价值。去年第四季度，新款Tilray报告的收入为1.598亿美元，甚至不包括来自SweetWater的收入，该公司目前的净收入超过1500万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined companies reported prior-quarter revenue of $167.3 million. Those revenues were down from $180.2 million in FQ2 so FQ4 revenues of $142.2 million aren't impressive on first look without parsing out the additional 9 weeks of revenues from Tilray. Unless Tilray had over $30 million in revenue from the unreported period, the combined company wouldn't have generated organic growth in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>合并后的公司上一季度营收为1.673亿美元。这些收入低于第二季度的1.802亿美元，因此如果不分析Tilray额外9周的收入，第四季度1.422亿美元的收入乍一看并不令人印象深刻。除非Tilray在未报告期间的收入超过3000万美元，否则合并后的公司不会在本季度实现有机增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c0dd681f62e6505699e94e0c8ca9517\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tilray FQ4'21演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tilray continues to face lockdown issues in both Canada and Europe. Cannabis and wellness net revenues both peaked in the November quarter as lockdowns started restricting sales in their key cannabis markets.</p><p><blockquote>Tilray在加拿大和欧洲继续面临封锁问题。由于封锁开始限制其主要大麻市场的销售，大麻和健康净收入均在11月份季度达到顶峰。</blockquote></p><p> What the market does know is that beverage alcohol net revenues reached $15.9 million in the quarter, up from $11.9 million in the prior quarter. The distribution revenue from CC Pharma in Germany dipped again to $66.8 million from $70.3 million in the prior quarter.</p><p><blockquote>市场所知道的是，本季度酒精饮料净收入达到1590万美元，高于上一季度的1190万美元。CC Pharma在德国的分销收入从上一季度的7030万美元再次下降至6680万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those revenues were both from the Aphria side where the new Tilray reported full revenue amounts for the period. The Wellness revenue came from the old Tilray and was $5.8 million in the May quarter while revenues were $16.6 million in the pro-forma February quarter results above. These revenues appeared to slightly grow from the prior quarter, but the May quarter numbers aren't fully known.</p><p><blockquote>这些收入均来自Aphria方面，新Tilray报告了该期间的全部收入金额。健康收入来自旧Tilray，5月份季度为580万美元，而上述预计2月份季度业绩中的收入为1660万美元。这些收入似乎比上一季度略有增长，但5月份季度的数据尚不完全清楚。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest question is the combined cannabis revenues where the business overlapped with both prior companies. The new Tilray reported May quarterly net cannabis revenue of $53.7 million. The combined company reported February net cannabis revenues of $68.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是大麻的综合收入，该业务与之前的两家公司重叠。新Tilray报告5月份季度大麻净收入为5370万美元。合并后的公司报告2月份大麻净收入为6850万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The standalone Aphria reported February net cannabis revenue of $41.2 million (C$51. million) leaving just $27.3 million net revenues from Tilray. The amount would suggest Tilray only contributed ~$9 million in monthly net cannabis revenues or somewhere around $18 million to $20 million for the missing revenues from March and April.</p><p><blockquote>独立的Aphria报告称，2月份大麻净收入为4120万美元（5100万加元），Tilray的净收入仅为2730万美元。这一数额表明Tilray每月仅贡献了约900万美元的大麻净收入，即3月和4月缺失的收入约为1800万至2000万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The big unknown are the full quarter revenues for Tilray, but the numbers would support the new company reporting relatively flat quarterly revenues when adding in the missing Tilray cannabis and wellness revenues.</p><p><blockquote>最大的未知数是Tilray的整个季度收入，但如果加上缺失的Tilray大麻和健康收入，这些数字将支持新公司报告相对持平的季度收入。</blockquote></p><p> While the company talks about $35 million in synergies, the adjusted EBITDA for FQ4 was just $12.3 million. The amount was up from the prior quarter of $10.2 million, but the numbers don't include a full quarter of the Tilray EBITDA losses which hit $6.3 million in the February quarter.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司谈论的协同效应为3500万美元，但第四季度调整后的EBITDA仅为1230万美元。该金额较上一季度的1,020万美元有所增加，但这些数字不包括Tilray EBITDA亏损的整个季度，该亏损在2月份季度达到630万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/301bd9351f458a2c2868e9816d0c90f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tilray FQ4'21演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The inability to fully compare the quarterly results makes this quarterly report incomplete. The new Tilray is targeting $80 million in cost synergies which in theory would build upon the above EBITDA profits of the prior 12-month period.</p><p><blockquote>由于无法对季度业绩进行充分比较，使得本季度报告不完整。新Tilray的目标是实现8000万美元的成本协同效应，理论上这将建立在前12个月期间的上述EBITDA利润的基础上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Good Story, Not Great Value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>故事不错，价值不大</b></blockquote></p><p> While the company tells a good story, Tilray doesn't have much in the way of growth. The company still has the massive opportunity in Europe where the market size is forecast at $3.9 billion in 2025, but the company doesn't have the growth to support any expected major growth driver as the market is highly competitive.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司讲述了一个很好的故事，但Tilray并没有太多的增长空间。该公司在欧洲仍然拥有巨大的机会，预计2025年市场规模将达到39亿美元，但由于市场竞争激烈，该公司没有足够的增长来支持任何预期的主要增长动力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Tilray lists a market share leader position in Canada based on TTM sales, but a lot of deals in the sector will make this category more competitive going forward.<b>HEXO</b>(HEXO) recently announced a deal for Redecan to make the company the claimed leader in the Canadian recreational cannabis market share. Redecan alone generated Q1 revenues of C$24.7 million.</p><p><blockquote>根据TTM销售额，Tilray在加拿大的市场份额处于领先地位，但该行业的许多交易将使该类别未来更具竞争力。<b>己糖</b>(HEXO)最近宣布了一项收购Redecan的交易，使该公司成为加拿大休闲大麻市场份额的领导者。仅Redecan一项就创造了第一季度2470万加元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3934fcca920ff31b8421b8a8322afaf0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tilray FQ4'21演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tilray now has a market cap of $7 billion following the closure of theAphriadeal. The issue with the stock valuation is the $66 million in quarterly distribution revenue has limited value. The total cannabis/beverages/wellness revenue is reduced to only $100 million to $110 million per quarter.</p><p><blockquote>theAphriadeal关闭后，Tilray目前的市值为70亿美元。股票估值的问题在于6600万美元的季度分销收入价值有限。大麻/饮料/健康总收入减少至每季度仅1亿至1.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company only has $400+ million of revenues in these valuable categories. The stock trades at ~17x these valuable cannabis related revenues, yet Tilray has reported no organic growth in several quarters.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在这些有价值的类别中只有4亿多美元的收入。该股的交易价格约为这些有价值的大麻相关收入的17倍，但Tilray报告称几个季度没有有机增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> The key investor takeaway is that Tilray still hasn't achieved any growth in over a year. The company has a forecast for large revenue by FY24, but most of the gains will come from acquisitions in the U.S. A better investment is to target the multi-state operators in the U.S. targeted by Tilray, not the stock in the Canadian cannabis company looking to make major deals likely at premium valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的主要收获是，Tilray在一年多的时间里仍然没有实现任何增长。该公司预计到2024财年将实现巨额收入，但大部分收益将来自美国的收购。更好的投资是瞄准Tilray瞄准的美国多州运营商，而不是这家希望以溢价进行重大交易的加拿大大麻公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tilray: Same Tired Story<blockquote>Tilray：同样令人厌倦的故事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTilray: Same Tired Story<blockquote>Tilray：同样令人厌倦的故事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 21:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Tilray reported misleading revenue growth in FQ4 due to not comparing pro-forma revenue from the merger for the quarter.</li> <li>The Canadian cannabis company is still struggling to grow due to lockdowns in Canada and Germany.</li> <li>The stock trades at substantial premium P/S multiple while risks exist on a U.S. acquisition plan.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1993e3b20ddec8572a2197dc22222ad9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1126\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>dvulikaia/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Tilray报告称，由于没有比较该季度合并后的预计收入，第四季度的收入增长具有误导性。</li><li>由于加拿大和德国的封锁，这家加拿大大麻公司仍在努力发展。</li><li>该股的市盈率大幅溢价，而美国收购计划存在风险。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>dvulikaia/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Before the market open,<b>Tilray</b>(TLRY) reported FQ4 results to provide the first quarterly results of the combined Aphria and Tilray operations. Unfortunately, the Canadian cannabis company failed to provide pro-forma numbers for the combination. My investment thesis remains Bearish on the stock after the 20% rally in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>开市前，<b>蒂尔雷</b>(TLRY)报告了第四季度业绩，提供了Aphria和Tilray业务合并后的第一个季度业绩。不幸的是，加拿大大麻公司未能提供合并的预计数据。在早盘上涨20%后，我的投资论点仍然看跌该股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Confusing Quarter</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人困惑的季度</b></blockquote></p><p> The new Tilray reported May quarterly numbers that only included four weeks of results from the old Tilray. Revenues were reported as reaching $142.2 million for 25% growth from last FQ4, but the numbers are absolutely worthless without the pro-forma numbers. Last FQ4, the new Tilray reported revenue of $159.8 million without even including revenues from SweetWater which now accounts for over $15 million of net revenues.</p><p><blockquote>新Tilray报告的5月份季度数据仅包括旧Tilray四周的业绩。据报道，收入达到1.422亿美元，较上一季度增长25%，但如果没有预计数据，这些数字绝对毫无价值。去年第四季度，新款Tilray报告的收入为1.598亿美元，甚至不包括来自SweetWater的收入，该公司目前的净收入超过1500万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined companies reported prior-quarter revenue of $167.3 million. Those revenues were down from $180.2 million in FQ2 so FQ4 revenues of $142.2 million aren't impressive on first look without parsing out the additional 9 weeks of revenues from Tilray. Unless Tilray had over $30 million in revenue from the unreported period, the combined company wouldn't have generated organic growth in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>合并后的公司上一季度营收为1.673亿美元。这些收入低于第二季度的1.802亿美元，因此如果不分析Tilray额外9周的收入，第四季度1.422亿美元的收入乍一看并不令人印象深刻。除非Tilray在未报告期间的收入超过3000万美元，否则合并后的公司不会在本季度实现有机增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c0dd681f62e6505699e94e0c8ca9517\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tilray FQ4'21演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tilray continues to face lockdown issues in both Canada and Europe. Cannabis and wellness net revenues both peaked in the November quarter as lockdowns started restricting sales in their key cannabis markets.</p><p><blockquote>Tilray在加拿大和欧洲继续面临封锁问题。由于封锁开始限制其主要大麻市场的销售，大麻和健康净收入均在11月份季度达到顶峰。</blockquote></p><p> What the market does know is that beverage alcohol net revenues reached $15.9 million in the quarter, up from $11.9 million in the prior quarter. The distribution revenue from CC Pharma in Germany dipped again to $66.8 million from $70.3 million in the prior quarter.</p><p><blockquote>市场所知道的是，本季度酒精饮料净收入达到1590万美元，高于上一季度的1190万美元。CC Pharma在德国的分销收入从上一季度的7030万美元再次下降至6680万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those revenues were both from the Aphria side where the new Tilray reported full revenue amounts for the period. The Wellness revenue came from the old Tilray and was $5.8 million in the May quarter while revenues were $16.6 million in the pro-forma February quarter results above. These revenues appeared to slightly grow from the prior quarter, but the May quarter numbers aren't fully known.</p><p><blockquote>这些收入均来自Aphria方面，新Tilray报告了该期间的全部收入金额。健康收入来自旧Tilray，5月份季度为580万美元，而上述预计2月份季度业绩中的收入为1660万美元。这些收入似乎比上一季度略有增长，但5月份季度的数据尚不完全清楚。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest question is the combined cannabis revenues where the business overlapped with both prior companies. The new Tilray reported May quarterly net cannabis revenue of $53.7 million. The combined company reported February net cannabis revenues of $68.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是大麻的综合收入，该业务与之前的两家公司重叠。新Tilray报告5月份季度大麻净收入为5370万美元。合并后的公司报告2月份大麻净收入为6850万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The standalone Aphria reported February net cannabis revenue of $41.2 million (C$51. million) leaving just $27.3 million net revenues from Tilray. The amount would suggest Tilray only contributed ~$9 million in monthly net cannabis revenues or somewhere around $18 million to $20 million for the missing revenues from March and April.</p><p><blockquote>独立的Aphria报告称，2月份大麻净收入为4120万美元（5100万加元），Tilray的净收入仅为2730万美元。这一数额表明Tilray每月仅贡献了约900万美元的大麻净收入，即3月和4月缺失的收入约为1800万至2000万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The big unknown are the full quarter revenues for Tilray, but the numbers would support the new company reporting relatively flat quarterly revenues when adding in the missing Tilray cannabis and wellness revenues.</p><p><blockquote>最大的未知数是Tilray的整个季度收入，但如果加上缺失的Tilray大麻和健康收入，这些数字将支持新公司报告相对持平的季度收入。</blockquote></p><p> While the company talks about $35 million in synergies, the adjusted EBITDA for FQ4 was just $12.3 million. The amount was up from the prior quarter of $10.2 million, but the numbers don't include a full quarter of the Tilray EBITDA losses which hit $6.3 million in the February quarter.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司谈论的协同效应为3500万美元，但第四季度调整后的EBITDA仅为1230万美元。该金额较上一季度的1,020万美元有所增加，但这些数字不包括Tilray EBITDA亏损的整个季度，该亏损在2月份季度达到630万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/301bd9351f458a2c2868e9816d0c90f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tilray FQ4'21演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The inability to fully compare the quarterly results makes this quarterly report incomplete. The new Tilray is targeting $80 million in cost synergies which in theory would build upon the above EBITDA profits of the prior 12-month period.</p><p><blockquote>由于无法对季度业绩进行充分比较，使得本季度报告不完整。新Tilray的目标是实现8000万美元的成本协同效应，理论上这将建立在前12个月期间的上述EBITDA利润的基础上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Good Story, Not Great Value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>故事不错，价值不大</b></blockquote></p><p> While the company tells a good story, Tilray doesn't have much in the way of growth. The company still has the massive opportunity in Europe where the market size is forecast at $3.9 billion in 2025, but the company doesn't have the growth to support any expected major growth driver as the market is highly competitive.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司讲述了一个很好的故事，但Tilray并没有太多的增长空间。该公司在欧洲仍然拥有巨大的机会，预计2025年市场规模将达到39亿美元，但由于市场竞争激烈，该公司没有足够的增长来支持任何预期的主要增长动力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Tilray lists a market share leader position in Canada based on TTM sales, but a lot of deals in the sector will make this category more competitive going forward.<b>HEXO</b>(HEXO) recently announced a deal for Redecan to make the company the claimed leader in the Canadian recreational cannabis market share. Redecan alone generated Q1 revenues of C$24.7 million.</p><p><blockquote>根据TTM销售额，Tilray在加拿大的市场份额处于领先地位，但该行业的许多交易将使该类别未来更具竞争力。<b>己糖</b>(HEXO)最近宣布了一项收购Redecan的交易，使该公司成为加拿大休闲大麻市场份额的领导者。仅Redecan一项就创造了第一季度2470万加元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3934fcca920ff31b8421b8a8322afaf0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tilray FQ4'21演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tilray now has a market cap of $7 billion following the closure of theAphriadeal. The issue with the stock valuation is the $66 million in quarterly distribution revenue has limited value. The total cannabis/beverages/wellness revenue is reduced to only $100 million to $110 million per quarter.</p><p><blockquote>theAphriadeal关闭后，Tilray目前的市值为70亿美元。股票估值的问题在于6600万美元的季度分销收入价值有限。大麻/饮料/健康总收入减少至每季度仅1亿至1.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company only has $400+ million of revenues in these valuable categories. The stock trades at ~17x these valuable cannabis related revenues, yet Tilray has reported no organic growth in several quarters.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在这些有价值的类别中只有4亿多美元的收入。该股的交易价格约为这些有价值的大麻相关收入的17倍，但Tilray报告称几个季度没有有机增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> The key investor takeaway is that Tilray still hasn't achieved any growth in over a year. The company has a forecast for large revenue by FY24, but most of the gains will come from acquisitions in the U.S. A better investment is to target the multi-state operators in the U.S. targeted by Tilray, not the stock in the Canadian cannabis company looking to make major deals likely at premium valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者的主要收获是，Tilray在一年多的时间里仍然没有实现任何增长。该公司预计到2024财年将实现巨额收入，但大部分收益将来自美国的收购。更好的投资是瞄准Tilray瞄准的美国多州运营商，而不是这家希望以溢价进行重大交易的加拿大大麻公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442342-tilray-same-tired-story\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TLRY":"Tilray Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442342-tilray-same-tired-story","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147830889","content_text":"Summary\n\nTilray reported misleading revenue growth in FQ4 due to not comparing pro-forma revenue from the merger for the quarter.\nThe Canadian cannabis company is still struggling to grow due to lockdowns in Canada and Germany.\nThe stock trades at substantial premium P/S multiple while risks exist on a U.S. acquisition plan.\n\ndvulikaia/iStock via Getty Images\nBefore the market open,Tilray(TLRY) reported FQ4 results to provide the first quarterly results of the combined Aphria and Tilray operations. Unfortunately, the Canadian cannabis company failed to provide pro-forma numbers for the combination. My investment thesis remains Bearish on the stock after the 20% rally in early trading.\nConfusing Quarter\nThe new Tilray reported May quarterly numbers that only included four weeks of results from the old Tilray. Revenues were reported as reaching $142.2 million for 25% growth from last FQ4, but the numbers are absolutely worthless without the pro-forma numbers. Last FQ4, the new Tilray reported revenue of $159.8 million without even including revenues from SweetWater which now accounts for over $15 million of net revenues.\nThe combined companies reported prior-quarter revenue of $167.3 million. Those revenues were down from $180.2 million in FQ2 so FQ4 revenues of $142.2 million aren't impressive on first look without parsing out the additional 9 weeks of revenues from Tilray. Unless Tilray had over $30 million in revenue from the unreported period, the combined company wouldn't have generated organic growth in the quarter.\nSource: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation\nTilray continues to face lockdown issues in both Canada and Europe. Cannabis and wellness net revenues both peaked in the November quarter as lockdowns started restricting sales in their key cannabis markets.\nWhat the market does know is that beverage alcohol net revenues reached $15.9 million in the quarter, up from $11.9 million in the prior quarter. The distribution revenue from CC Pharma in Germany dipped again to $66.8 million from $70.3 million in the prior quarter.\nThose revenues were both from the Aphria side where the new Tilray reported full revenue amounts for the period. The Wellness revenue came from the old Tilray and was $5.8 million in the May quarter while revenues were $16.6 million in the pro-forma February quarter results above. These revenues appeared to slightly grow from the prior quarter, but the May quarter numbers aren't fully known.\nThe biggest question is the combined cannabis revenues where the business overlapped with both prior companies. The new Tilray reported May quarterly net cannabis revenue of $53.7 million. The combined company reported February net cannabis revenues of $68.5 million.\nThe standalone Aphria reported February net cannabis revenue of $41.2 million (C$51. million) leaving just $27.3 million net revenues from Tilray. The amount would suggest Tilray only contributed ~$9 million in monthly net cannabis revenues or somewhere around $18 million to $20 million for the missing revenues from March and April.\nThe big unknown are the full quarter revenues for Tilray, but the numbers would support the new company reporting relatively flat quarterly revenues when adding in the missing Tilray cannabis and wellness revenues.\nWhile the company talks about $35 million in synergies, the adjusted EBITDA for FQ4 was just $12.3 million. The amount was up from the prior quarter of $10.2 million, but the numbers don't include a full quarter of the Tilray EBITDA losses which hit $6.3 million in the February quarter.\nSource: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation\nThe inability to fully compare the quarterly results makes this quarterly report incomplete. The new Tilray is targeting $80 million in cost synergies which in theory would build upon the above EBITDA profits of the prior 12-month period.\nGood Story, Not Great Value\nWhile the company tells a good story, Tilray doesn't have much in the way of growth. The company still has the massive opportunity in Europe where the market size is forecast at $3.9 billion in 2025, but the company doesn't have the growth to support any expected major growth driver as the market is highly competitive.\nTilray lists a market share leader position in Canada based on TTM sales, but a lot of deals in the sector will make this category more competitive going forward.HEXO(HEXO) recently announced a deal for Redecan to make the company the claimed leader in the Canadian recreational cannabis market share. Redecan alone generated Q1 revenues of C$24.7 million.\nSource: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation\nTilray now has a market cap of $7 billion following the closure of theAphriadeal. The issue with the stock valuation is the $66 million in quarterly distribution revenue has limited value. The total cannabis/beverages/wellness revenue is reduced to only $100 million to $110 million per quarter.\nThe company only has $400+ million of revenues in these valuable categories. The stock trades at ~17x these valuable cannabis related revenues, yet Tilray has reported no organic growth in several quarters.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that Tilray still hasn't achieved any growth in over a year. The company has a forecast for large revenue by FY24, but most of the gains will come from acquisitions in the U.S. A better investment is to target the multi-state operators in the U.S. targeted by Tilray, not the stock in the Canadian cannabis company looking to make major deals likely at premium valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLRY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2854,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/808163293"}
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