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2021-07-30

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Here's why the 10-year yield is so low, and the summer event that could change it, from Bank of America<blockquote>这就是美国银行10年期国债收益率如此之低的原因，以及可能改变这种情况的夏季事件</blockquote>

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There also also has been some damage-control moves by Chinese officials after a series of regulatory blows sent investors in technology and other shares from the country running for cover.<blockquote>周四交易中，股票期货涨跌互现，亚马逊的业绩将成为稍后的焦点。在一系列监管打击导致中国科技和其他股票投资者寻求庇护后，中国官员也采取了一些损害控制举措。</blockquote> Investors are also considering over the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, which left the status quo in place for interest rates and asset buys. That's as some, like Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team, \"see the beginning of an initial nod toward a tapering of asset purchases at some point.\"<blockquote>投资者还在考虑美联储会议的结果，该会议维持了利率和资产购买的现状。德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）和他的团队等一些人“认为在某个时候开始初步同意缩减资产购买。”</blockquote> Another burning question for investors right now, why are 10-year rates so low? Our call of the day comes from Bank of America strategists who think they've cracked it.<blockquote>目前投资者面临的另一个紧迫问题是，为什么10年期利率如此之低？我们今天的看涨期权来自美银策略师，他们认为自己已经破解了这个问题。</blockquote> \"Clients point to strong growth -- currently tracking 4.1% for 3Q -- and CPI inflation running above 5%. But we think the rates market is focused on 2023 and beyond, and are increasingly questioning the ability of the Fed to deliver a substantial hiking cycle,\" wrote lead strategist Ralph Axel and the team.<blockquote>“客户指出增长强劲——目前第三季度增长4.1%——CPI通胀率高于5%。但我们认为利率市场关注的是2023年及以后，并且越来越多地质疑美联储实现大幅加息的能力。首席策略师拉尔夫·阿克塞尔及其团队写道：“加息周期”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4dde25f0e3848e31e9420ff3ff2277\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"351\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Traders don't see the Fed repeating the 2015-2018 hiking cycle, which brought the policy rate band to 2.25%-2.50% in December 2018, and a peak 10 year rate of 3.2% in November 2018, said the strategists.<blockquote>策略师表示，交易员认为美联储不会重复2015-2018年的加息周期，该周期在2018年12月将政策利率区间提高至2.25%-2.50%，并在2018年11月达到3.2%的10年期峰值。</blockquote> For equity investors, the yield is important as lower levels help to boost tech stocks in particular as they make borrowing easier for those types of companies. If rates start going up, some could fear it will draw money out of the stock market as investors seek better returns.<blockquote>对于股票投资者来说，收益率很重要，因为较低的收益率有助于提振科技股，特别是因为它们使这类公司更容易借贷。如果利率开始上升，一些人可能担心，随着投资者寻求更好的回报，这将导致资金撤出股市。</blockquote> Bank of America doesn't see a sharp rise in rates such as was seen in the first quarter -- driven by positive vaccine surprises and fiscal stimulus -- but they see scope for modestly higher rates in the next six to 12 months. \"We have not changed our forecast for 10y rates at 1.9% by year-end, but downside risks to our forecast have increased,\" he said.<blockquote>在积极的疫苗意外和财政刺激的推动下，美国银行预计利率不会像第一季度那样大幅上升，但他们认为未来6至12个月利率还有小幅上升的空间。他表示：“我们没有改变年底前10年期利率1.9%的预测，但我们预测的下行风险有所增加。”</blockquote> Axel said they are keeping a keen eye on next week's payroll reports that is said will help \"set the tone for the rest of the summer.\"<blockquote>阿克塞尔表示，他们正在密切关注下周的就业报告，据说这将有助于“为夏季剩余时间定下基调”。</blockquote> \"If jobs are strong and inflation becomes more widespread across the CPI basket, and the Fed does not react hawkishly to strong data, we think there is scope for higher rates as long as disruptions due to COVID-19 remain well contained. These are the fundamental ingredients we will need to regain confidence in our 1.9% call for 10y rates,\" they said.<blockquote>“如果就业强劲，通胀在CPI篮子中变得更加普遍，并且美联储没有对强劲数据做出强硬反应，我们认为，只要COVID-19造成的干扰得到很好的控制，利率就有上升的空间。这些是我们需要重新对10年期利率1.9%的看涨期权充满信心的基本要素，”他们表示。</blockquote> A weak jobs report next week, though would fuel worries of \"moving past peak growth, peak inflation, peak stimulus and perhaps even peak interest rates.\"<blockquote>不过，下周疲弱的就业报告将加剧人们对“超越增长峰值、通胀峰值、刺激峰值甚至利率峰值”的担忧。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's why the 10-year yield is so low, and the summer event that could change it, from Bank of America<blockquote>这就是美国银行10年期国债收益率如此之低的原因，以及可能改变这种情况的夏季事件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's why the 10-year yield is so low, and the summer event that could change it, from Bank of America<blockquote>这就是美国银行10年期国债收益率如此之低的原因，以及可能改变这种情况的夏季事件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-29 19:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStock futures are a mixed bag headed into Thursday's session, with Amazon.com's results in the spotlight for later. There also also has been some damage-control moves by Chinese officials after a series of regulatory blows sent investors in technology and other shares from the country running for cover.<blockquote>周四交易中，股票期货涨跌互现，亚马逊的业绩将成为稍后的焦点。在一系列监管打击导致中国科技和其他股票投资者寻求庇护后，中国官员也采取了一些损害控制举措。</blockquote> Investors are also considering over the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, which left the status quo in place for interest rates and asset buys. That's as some, like Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team, \"see the beginning of an initial nod toward a tapering of asset purchases at some point.\"<blockquote>投资者还在考虑美联储会议的结果，该会议维持了利率和资产购买的现状。德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）和他的团队等一些人“认为在某个时候开始初步同意缩减资产购买。”</blockquote> Another burning question for investors right now, why are 10-year rates so low? Our call of the day comes from Bank of America strategists who think they've cracked it.<blockquote>目前投资者面临的另一个紧迫问题是，为什么10年期利率如此之低？我们今天的看涨期权来自美银策略师，他们认为自己已经破解了这个问题。</blockquote> \"Clients point to strong growth -- currently tracking 4.1% for 3Q -- and CPI inflation running above 5%. But we think the rates market is focused on 2023 and beyond, and are increasingly questioning the ability of the Fed to deliver a substantial hiking cycle,\" wrote lead strategist Ralph Axel and the team.<blockquote>“客户指出增长强劲——目前第三季度增长4.1%——CPI通胀率高于5%。但我们认为利率市场关注的是2023年及以后，并且越来越多地质疑美联储实现大幅加息的能力。首席策略师拉尔夫·阿克塞尔及其团队写道：“加息周期”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4dde25f0e3848e31e9420ff3ff2277\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"351\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Traders don't see the Fed repeating the 2015-2018 hiking cycle, which brought the policy rate band to 2.25%-2.50% in December 2018, and a peak 10 year rate of 3.2% in November 2018, said the strategists.<blockquote>策略师表示，交易员认为美联储不会重复2015-2018年的加息周期，该周期在2018年12月将政策利率区间提高至2.25%-2.50%，并在2018年11月达到3.2%的10年期峰值。</blockquote> For equity investors, the yield is important as lower levels help to boost tech stocks in particular as they make borrowing easier for those types of companies. If rates start going up, some could fear it will draw money out of the stock market as investors seek better returns.<blockquote>对于股票投资者来说，收益率很重要，因为较低的收益率有助于提振科技股，特别是因为它们使这类公司更容易借贷。如果利率开始上升，一些人可能担心，随着投资者寻求更好的回报，这将导致资金撤出股市。</blockquote> Bank of America doesn't see a sharp rise in rates such as was seen in the first quarter -- driven by positive vaccine surprises and fiscal stimulus -- but they see scope for modestly higher rates in the next six to 12 months. \"We have not changed our forecast for 10y rates at 1.9% by year-end, but downside risks to our forecast have increased,\" he said.<blockquote>在积极的疫苗意外和财政刺激的推动下，美国银行预计利率不会像第一季度那样大幅上升，但他们认为未来6至12个月利率还有小幅上升的空间。他表示：“我们没有改变年底前10年期利率1.9%的预测，但我们预测的下行风险有所增加。”</blockquote> Axel said they are keeping a keen eye on next week's payroll reports that is said will help \"set the tone for the rest of the summer.\"<blockquote>阿克塞尔表示，他们正在密切关注下周的就业报告，据说这将有助于“为夏季剩余时间定下基调”。</blockquote> \"If jobs are strong and inflation becomes more widespread across the CPI basket, and the Fed does not react hawkishly to strong data, we think there is scope for higher rates as long as disruptions due to COVID-19 remain well contained. These are the fundamental ingredients we will need to regain confidence in our 1.9% call for 10y rates,\" they said.<blockquote>“如果就业强劲，通胀在CPI篮子中变得更加普遍，并且美联储没有对强劲数据做出强硬反应，我们认为，只要COVID-19造成的干扰得到很好的控制，利率就有上升的空间。这些是我们需要重新对10年期利率1.9%的看涨期权充满信心的基本要素，”他们表示。</blockquote> A weak jobs report next week, though would fuel worries of \"moving past peak growth, peak inflation, peak stimulus and perhaps even peak interest rates.\"<blockquote>不过，下周疲弱的就业报告将加剧人们对“超越增长峰值、通胀峰值、刺激峰值甚至利率峰值”的担忧。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-10-year-yield-is-so-low-and-the-summer-event-that-could-change-it-from-bank-of-america-11627556870?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-10-year-yield-is-so-low-and-the-summer-event-that-could-change-it-from-bank-of-america-11627556870?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155090430","content_text":"Stock futures are a mixed bag headed into Thursday's session, with Amazon.com's results in the spotlight for later. There also also has been some damage-control moves by Chinese officials after a series of regulatory blows sent investors in technology and other shares from the country running for cover.\nInvestors are also considering over the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, which left the status quo in place for interest rates and asset buys. That's as some, like Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team, \"see the beginning of an initial nod toward a tapering of asset purchases at some point.\"\nAnother burning question for investors right now, why are 10-year rates so low? Our call of the day comes from Bank of America strategists who think they've cracked it.\n\"Clients point to strong growth -- currently tracking 4.1% for 3Q -- and CPI inflation running above 5%. But we think the rates market is focused on 2023 and beyond, and are increasingly questioning the ability of the Fed to deliver a substantial hiking cycle,\" wrote lead strategist Ralph Axel and the team.\n\nTraders don't see the Fed repeating the 2015-2018 hiking cycle, which brought the policy rate band to 2.25%-2.50% in December 2018, and a peak 10 year rate of 3.2% in November 2018, said the strategists.\nFor equity investors, the yield is important as lower levels help to boost tech stocks in particular as they make borrowing easier for those types of companies. If rates start going up, some could fear it will draw money out of the stock market as investors seek better returns.\nBank of America doesn't see a sharp rise in rates such as was seen in the first quarter -- driven by positive vaccine surprises and fiscal stimulus -- but they see scope for modestly higher rates in the next six to 12 months. \"We have not changed our forecast for 10y rates at 1.9% by year-end, but downside risks to our forecast have increased,\" he said.\nAxel said they are keeping a keen eye on next week's payroll reports that is said will help \"set the tone for the rest of the summer.\"\n\"If jobs are strong and inflation becomes more widespread across the CPI basket, and the Fed does not react hawkishly to strong data, we think there is scope for higher rates as long as disruptions due to COVID-19 remain well contained. These are the fundamental ingredients we will need to regain confidence in our 1.9% call for 10y rates,\" they said.\nA weak jobs report next week, though would fuel worries of \"moving past peak growth, peak inflation, peak stimulus and perhaps even peak interest rates.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/808202151"}