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2021-07-27
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The Fed Meeting Kicks Off Today. Inflation Concerns and a Slowing Economy Will Take Center Stage.<blockquote>美联储会议今天开始。通货膨胀担忧和经济放缓将成为焦点。</blockquote>
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Inflation Concerns and a Slowing Economy Will Take Center Stage.<blockquote>美联储会议今天开始。通货膨胀担忧和经济放缓将成为焦点。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156597463","media":"Barrons","summary":"As the Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, it confronts dual si","content":"<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, it confronts dual situations that call for diametrically opposite policy reactions. Inflation has risen substantially more than the monetary authorities had expected, which is weighing on consumers and approval ratings for President Joe Biden.</p><p><blockquote>随着联邦公开市场委员会周二开始为期两天的政策会议，它面临着看涨期权截然相反的政策反应的双重情况。通货膨胀的涨幅远远超出了货币当局的预期，这给消费者和乔·拜登总统的支持率带来了压力。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the economy’s growth appears to be decelerating as spending on goods slows from its breakneck pace and the new burst of Covid-19 cases related to the Delta variant deters a recovery of spending on services. In particular, the much-anticipated return to the office by the millions still working at home may be pushed back, at least temporarily and perhaps permanently.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，随着商品支出从惊人的速度放缓，以及与德尔塔变异毒株有关的新一轮 Covid-19 病例的爆发阻碍了服务支出的复苏，经济增长似乎正在放缓。特别是，数百万仍在家工作的人期待已久的重返办公室可能会被推迟，至少是暂时的，也许是永久的。</blockquote></p><p> With the consumer-price index up 5.4% from a year ago, inflation is top of mind for consumers. As a result, 54% of Americans say the economy is in poor shape, according to a new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者价格指数同比上涨5.4%，通货膨胀是消费者最关心的问题。因此，根据美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心的一项新民意调查，54%的美国人认为经济状况不佳。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve still pins the price rises on transitory factors, to use the buzzword of the moment. Even so, increased costs are having a negative impact. Sales of new single-family homes fell to a 14-month low in June, the third straight monthly drop, as soaring prices for materials and labor hit both supplies and demand. The median price of a new home was 6.1% more expensive from a year ago, to $361,800.</p><p><blockquote>用目前的流行语来说，美联储仍然将价格上涨归咎于暂时因素。即便如此，成本增加还是产生了负面影响。由于材料和劳动力价格飙升打击了供需，6 月份新建单户住宅销量跌至 14 个月低点，连续第三个月下降。新房的中位价格比一年前上涨了6.1%，达到361,800美元。</blockquote></p><p> As this column discussed this past weekend, the Fed is exacerbating home-price inflation with its purchases of $120 billion of securities a month. That consists of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. Some would-be home buyers are giving up on the fruitless quest to buy a house as prices soar, the New York Times reported, a spiral made worse by the Fed’s injection of liquidity into the mortgage market.</p><p><blockquote>正如本专栏上周末讨论的那样，美联储每月购买 1200 亿美元的证券，正在加剧房价通胀。其中包括 800 亿美元的国债和 400 亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。据《纽约时报》报道，随着房价飙升，一些潜在购房者正在放弃徒劳无功的购房追求，而美联储向抵押贷款市场注入流动性加剧了这种螺旋式上升。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the economy has passed its peak growth and is expected to decelerate significantly from here on to 2022.Goldman Sachs on Monday reduced its GDP forecast, in line with the consensus of economists to 6.6% for the full year of 2021, but to a sharply lower trajectory next year, back to the prepandemic trend rate of just 1.5% to 2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，经济已经度过增长峰值，预计从现在到2022年将大幅放缓。高盛周一下调了GDP预测，与经济学家的共识一致，2021年全年GDP增长率为6.6%，但明年将大幅下降，回到疫情前的趋势率仅为1.5%至2%。</blockquote></p><p> That comes as no surprise to David Rosenberg, founder and head of Rosenberg Research,who said recently that the economy looked set to slow dramatically after the burst of consumer spending on durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances and durable goods diminished.</p><p><blockquote>罗森伯格研究公司创始人兼负责人大卫·罗森伯格对此并不感到意外，他最近表示，在汽车和家用电器等耐用品的消费者支出激增以及耐用品减少后，经济似乎将大幅放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s concern is a handoff from goods to services spending will be delayed or thwarted, especially as a slower return to offices continues to keep a lid on workers’ spending for commuting, work clothes and dry cleaning, and food away from home.</p><p><blockquote>高盛担心的是，从商品到服务支出的转移将被推迟或受阻，尤其是在重返办公室的速度放缓继续限制员工在通勤、工作服和干洗以及外出就餐方面的支出。</blockquote></p><p> Chair Jerome Powell has said all along that Fed policy will depend on the path of the pandemic, which isn’t over, as shown by the upsurge of Covid cases and less than half the population vaccinated, Rosenberg wrote in an email. At the same time, if the FOMC indicates it is moving toward announcing the wind-down of asset purchases, this move to a more accommodative policy could be short-lived, he added.</p><p><blockquote>罗森伯格在一封电子邮件中写道，美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）一直表示，美联储的政策将取决于大流行病的发展轨迹，而大流行病还没有结束，Covid病例激增和接种疫苗的人口不到一半就证明了这一点。他补充说，与此同时，如果联邦公开市场委员会表示将宣布逐步缩减资产购买，那么这种采取更加宽松政策的举措可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> Rosenberg recalled the Fed shifted to a tightening bias in mid-2008, thinking the worst of the mortgage crisis was over when Bear Stearns was folded into JPMorgan Chase(ticker: JPM) the previous March. Of course, the Fed then had to reverse itself radically by the time the crisis deepened, culminating in the failure of Lehman Brothers and the bailout of American International Group that September.</p><p><blockquote>罗森伯格回忆说，美联储在 2008 年中期转向紧缩倾向，认为去年 3 月贝尔斯登并入摩根大通（股票代码：JPM）时，抵押贷款危机最严重的时期已经过去。当然，当危机加深时，美联储不得不彻底改变自己，最终导致雷曼兄弟倒闭和美国国际集团的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Nobody is suggesting the Fed is about to raise its key federal funds interest rate target from its current rock-bottom 0-0.25%, however. But the FOMC faces conflicting forces about continuing its massive liquidity injections that were initiated at the height of the pandemic crisis in March 2020 as the economy is passing from its peak growth phase and inflation is causing consternation on Main Street.</p><p><blockquote>然而，没有人暗示美联储即将从目前的底部 0-0.25% 上调其关键联邦基金利率目标。但联邦公开市场委员会在继续大规模流动性注入方面面临着相互矛盾的力量，这些注入是在 2020 年 3 月大流行危机最严重时启动的，当时经济正从增长高峰阶段过渡，通货膨胀正在引起主街的恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever it decides, Powell will have some explaining to do Wednesday at his post-confab press conference.</p><p><blockquote>无论它做出什么决定，鲍威尔都将在周三的会议后新闻发布会上做出一些解释。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Meeting Kicks Off Today. Inflation Concerns and a Slowing Economy Will Take Center Stage.<blockquote>美联储会议今天开始。通货膨胀担忧和经济放缓将成为焦点。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Meeting Kicks Off Today. Inflation Concerns and a Slowing Economy Will Take Center Stage.<blockquote>美联储会议今天开始。通货膨胀担忧和经济放缓将成为焦点。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 16:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, it confronts dual situations that call for diametrically opposite policy reactions. Inflation has risen substantially more than the monetary authorities had expected, which is weighing on consumers and approval ratings for President Joe Biden.</p><p><blockquote>随着联邦公开市场委员会周二开始为期两天的政策会议，它面临着看涨期权截然相反的政策反应的双重情况。通货膨胀的涨幅远远超出了货币当局的预期，这给消费者和乔·拜登总统的支持率带来了压力。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the economy’s growth appears to be decelerating as spending on goods slows from its breakneck pace and the new burst of Covid-19 cases related to the Delta variant deters a recovery of spending on services. In particular, the much-anticipated return to the office by the millions still working at home may be pushed back, at least temporarily and perhaps permanently.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，随着商品支出从惊人的速度放缓，以及与德尔塔变异毒株有关的新一轮 Covid-19 病例的爆发阻碍了服务支出的复苏，经济增长似乎正在放缓。特别是，数百万仍在家工作的人期待已久的重返办公室可能会被推迟，至少是暂时的，也许是永久的。</blockquote></p><p> With the consumer-price index up 5.4% from a year ago, inflation is top of mind for consumers. As a result, 54% of Americans say the economy is in poor shape, according to a new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者价格指数同比上涨5.4%，通货膨胀是消费者最关心的问题。因此，根据美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心的一项新民意调查，54%的美国人认为经济状况不佳。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve still pins the price rises on transitory factors, to use the buzzword of the moment. Even so, increased costs are having a negative impact. Sales of new single-family homes fell to a 14-month low in June, the third straight monthly drop, as soaring prices for materials and labor hit both supplies and demand. The median price of a new home was 6.1% more expensive from a year ago, to $361,800.</p><p><blockquote>用目前的流行语来说，美联储仍然将价格上涨归咎于暂时因素。即便如此，成本增加还是产生了负面影响。由于材料和劳动力价格飙升打击了供需，6 月份新建单户住宅销量跌至 14 个月低点，连续第三个月下降。新房的中位价格比一年前上涨了6.1%，达到361,800美元。</blockquote></p><p> As this column discussed this past weekend, the Fed is exacerbating home-price inflation with its purchases of $120 billion of securities a month. That consists of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. Some would-be home buyers are giving up on the fruitless quest to buy a house as prices soar, the New York Times reported, a spiral made worse by the Fed’s injection of liquidity into the mortgage market.</p><p><blockquote>正如本专栏上周末讨论的那样，美联储每月购买 1200 亿美元的证券，正在加剧房价通胀。其中包括 800 亿美元的国债和 400 亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。据《纽约时报》报道，随着房价飙升，一些潜在购房者正在放弃徒劳无功的购房追求，而美联储向抵押贷款市场注入流动性加剧了这种螺旋式上升。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the economy has passed its peak growth and is expected to decelerate significantly from here on to 2022.Goldman Sachs on Monday reduced its GDP forecast, in line with the consensus of economists to 6.6% for the full year of 2021, but to a sharply lower trajectory next year, back to the prepandemic trend rate of just 1.5% to 2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，经济已经度过增长峰值，预计从现在到2022年将大幅放缓。高盛周一下调了GDP预测，与经济学家的共识一致，2021年全年GDP增长率为6.6%，但明年将大幅下降，回到疫情前的趋势率仅为1.5%至2%。</blockquote></p><p> That comes as no surprise to David Rosenberg, founder and head of Rosenberg Research,who said recently that the economy looked set to slow dramatically after the burst of consumer spending on durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances and durable goods diminished.</p><p><blockquote>罗森伯格研究公司创始人兼负责人大卫·罗森伯格对此并不感到意外，他最近表示，在汽车和家用电器等耐用品的消费者支出激增以及耐用品减少后，经济似乎将大幅放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s concern is a handoff from goods to services spending will be delayed or thwarted, especially as a slower return to offices continues to keep a lid on workers’ spending for commuting, work clothes and dry cleaning, and food away from home.</p><p><blockquote>高盛担心的是，从商品到服务支出的转移将被推迟或受阻，尤其是在重返办公室的速度放缓继续限制员工在通勤、工作服和干洗以及外出就餐方面的支出。</blockquote></p><p> Chair Jerome Powell has said all along that Fed policy will depend on the path of the pandemic, which isn’t over, as shown by the upsurge of Covid cases and less than half the population vaccinated, Rosenberg wrote in an email. At the same time, if the FOMC indicates it is moving toward announcing the wind-down of asset purchases, this move to a more accommodative policy could be short-lived, he added.</p><p><blockquote>罗森伯格在一封电子邮件中写道，美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）一直表示，美联储的政策将取决于大流行病的发展轨迹，而大流行病还没有结束，Covid病例激增和接种疫苗的人口不到一半就证明了这一点。他补充说，与此同时，如果联邦公开市场委员会表示将宣布逐步缩减资产购买，那么这种采取更加宽松政策的举措可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> Rosenberg recalled the Fed shifted to a tightening bias in mid-2008, thinking the worst of the mortgage crisis was over when Bear Stearns was folded into JPMorgan Chase(ticker: JPM) the previous March. Of course, the Fed then had to reverse itself radically by the time the crisis deepened, culminating in the failure of Lehman Brothers and the bailout of American International Group that September.</p><p><blockquote>罗森伯格回忆说，美联储在 2008 年中期转向紧缩倾向，认为去年 3 月贝尔斯登并入摩根大通（股票代码：JPM）时，抵押贷款危机最严重的时期已经过去。当然，当危机加深时，美联储不得不彻底改变自己，最终导致雷曼兄弟倒闭和美国国际集团的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Nobody is suggesting the Fed is about to raise its key federal funds interest rate target from its current rock-bottom 0-0.25%, however. But the FOMC faces conflicting forces about continuing its massive liquidity injections that were initiated at the height of the pandemic crisis in March 2020 as the economy is passing from its peak growth phase and inflation is causing consternation on Main Street.</p><p><blockquote>然而，没有人暗示美联储即将从目前的底部 0-0.25% 上调其关键联邦基金利率目标。但联邦公开市场委员会在继续大规模流动性注入方面面临着相互矛盾的力量，这些注入是在 2020 年 3 月大流行危机最严重时启动的，当时经济正从增长高峰阶段过渡，通货膨胀正在引起主街的恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever it decides, Powell will have some explaining to do Wednesday at his post-confab press conference.</p><p><blockquote>无论它做出什么决定，鲍威尔都将在周三的会议后新闻发布会上做出一些解释。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-meeting-this-week-51627342935?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-meeting-this-week-51627342935?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156597463","content_text":"As the Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, it confronts dual situations that call for diametrically opposite policy reactions. Inflation has risen substantially more than the monetary authorities had expected, which is weighing on consumers and approval ratings for President Joe Biden.\nAt the same time, the economy’s growth appears to be decelerating as spending on goods slows from its breakneck pace and the new burst of Covid-19 cases related to the Delta variant deters a recovery of spending on services. In particular, the much-anticipated return to the office by the millions still working at home may be pushed back, at least temporarily and perhaps permanently.\nWith the consumer-price index up 5.4% from a year ago, inflation is top of mind for consumers. As a result, 54% of Americans say the economy is in poor shape, according to a new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll.\nThe Federal Reserve still pins the price rises on transitory factors, to use the buzzword of the moment. Even so, increased costs are having a negative impact. Sales of new single-family homes fell to a 14-month low in June, the third straight monthly drop, as soaring prices for materials and labor hit both supplies and demand. The median price of a new home was 6.1% more expensive from a year ago, to $361,800.\nAs this column discussed this past weekend, the Fed is exacerbating home-price inflation with its purchases of $120 billion of securities a month. That consists of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. Some would-be home buyers are giving up on the fruitless quest to buy a house as prices soar, the New York Times reported, a spiral made worse by the Fed’s injection of liquidity into the mortgage market.\nAt the same time, the economy has passed its peak growth and is expected to decelerate significantly from here on to 2022.Goldman Sachs on Monday reduced its GDP forecast, in line with the consensus of economists to 6.6% for the full year of 2021, but to a sharply lower trajectory next year, back to the prepandemic trend rate of just 1.5% to 2%.\nThat comes as no surprise to David Rosenberg, founder and head of Rosenberg Research,who said recently that the economy looked set to slow dramatically after the burst of consumer spending on durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances and durable goods diminished.\nGoldman’s concern is a handoff from goods to services spending will be delayed or thwarted, especially as a slower return to offices continues to keep a lid on workers’ spending for commuting, work clothes and dry cleaning, and food away from home.\nChair Jerome Powell has said all along that Fed policy will depend on the path of the pandemic, which isn’t over, as shown by the upsurge of Covid cases and less than half the population vaccinated, Rosenberg wrote in an email. At the same time, if the FOMC indicates it is moving toward announcing the wind-down of asset purchases, this move to a more accommodative policy could be short-lived, he added.\nRosenberg recalled the Fed shifted to a tightening bias in mid-2008, thinking the worst of the mortgage crisis was over when Bear Stearns was folded into JPMorgan Chase(ticker: JPM) the previous March. Of course, the Fed then had to reverse itself radically by the time the crisis deepened, culminating in the failure of Lehman Brothers and the bailout of American International Group that September.\nNobody is suggesting the Fed is about to raise its key federal funds interest rate target from its current rock-bottom 0-0.25%, however. But the FOMC faces conflicting forces about continuing its massive liquidity injections that were initiated at the height of the pandemic crisis in March 2020 as the economy is passing from its peak growth phase and inflation is causing consternation on Main Street.\nWhatever it decides, Powell will have some explaining to do Wednesday at his post-confab press conference.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3994,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/809538392"}
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