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2021-07-27

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Goldman Sachs slashes US economic growth forecast over weaker spending on services<blockquote>高盛因服务业支出疲软下调美国经济增长预期</blockquote>

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But fears around the Delta variant are keeping services spending down.<blockquote>高盛经济学家罗尼·沃克周一在给客户的一份报告中表示，这就是为什么人们使用现金的方式需要轮换。但对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧正在压低服务支出。</blockquote> \"The services categories where spending remains depressed are generally either associated with high virus risk, such as live entertainment events, or connected to office-based work, such as ground transportation or dry cleaners,\" Walker wrote.<blockquote>沃克写道：“支出仍然低迷的服务类别通常要么与高病毒风险有关，例如现场娱乐活动，要么与办公室工作有关，例如地面交通或干洗店。”</blockquote> In response, Goldman slashed its gross domestic product growth forecast, the widest measure of economic activity, by one percentage point in both the third and fourth quarters.<blockquote>作为回应，高盛将第三季度和第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期下调了一个百分点，这是衡量经济活动的最广泛指标。</blockquote> Between July and September, the Wall Street bank expected 8.5% annualized growth, before dropping to 5% in the last three months of the year. For the full year, Goldman predicts 6.6% GDP growth.<blockquote>7月至9月期间，这家华尔街银行预计年化增长率为8.5%，然后在今年最后三个月降至5%。高盛预测全年GDP增长6.6%。</blockquote> From 2022 on, the pace of expansion will slow further, trending back toward the 1.5% to 2% annualized growth what the nation typically saw before the pandemic.<blockquote>从2022年开始，扩张步伐将进一步放缓，回到疫情之前该国通常看到的1.5%至2%的年化增长率。</blockquote> Even though roughly half of Americans are fully vaccinated, cases are rising. In 48 states, the rate of new Covid-19 cases in the past week jumped by at least 10% compared to the previous week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In 34 of those states, the rate of new cases increased by more than 50%.<blockquote>尽管大约一半的美国人完全接种了疫苗，但病例仍在上升。约翰·霍普金斯大学的数据显示，在48个州，过去一周新增Covid-19病例的比率比前一周上升了至少10%。在其中34个州，新病例率增加了50%以上。</blockquote> The rise of infections through the variant is coming at an inopportune time: The economy is still not back to normal, and the resurgence of infections could keep people from fully participating in the economy.<blockquote>通过该变种感染的上升来得不合时宜：经济仍未恢复正常，感染的死灰复燃可能会使人们无法充分参与经济。</blockquote> \"While most consumers appear to be comfortable returning to high-contact services, some are still hesitant,\" said Walker. \"They are likely to remain cautious for now as the spread of the Delta variant keeps Covid fears alive, delaying a full recovery.\"<blockquote>沃克说：“虽然大多数消费者似乎对重返高接触服务感到满意，但有些人仍然犹豫不决。”“他们目前可能会保持谨慎，因为德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延使人们对新冠病毒的担忧持续存在，从而推迟了全面复苏。”</blockquote> At the same time, Goldman's economists believe the Delta variant's impact on the economy will be somewhat limited: \"Appetite for new government-mandated restrictions appears low; early state-level evidence shows little impact on consumer spending so far; and the virus situation already appears to be improving in the United Kingdom and other countries where it spread earliest,\" Walker wrote.<blockquote>与此同时，高盛的经济学家认为，德尔塔变异毒株对经济的影响将在一定程度上有限：“对政府强制实施的新限制措施的兴趣似乎很低；早期的州级证据显示，到目前为止，对消费者支出的影响很小；而且病毒情况在英国和其他传播最早的国家似乎正在改善，”沃克写道。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs slashes US economic growth forecast over weaker spending on services<blockquote>高盛因服务业支出疲软下调美国经济增长预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs slashes US economic growth forecast over weaker spending on services<blockquote>高盛因服务业支出疲软下调美国经济增长预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nCNN2021-07-27 11:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNew York (CNN Business)Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its forecast for US economic activity in the second half of the year, pointing to sluggish consumer spending on services as well as the threats posed by the Covid-19 Delta variant.<blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）高盛（GS）大幅下调了对美国下半年经济活动的预测，指出消费者服务业支出低迷以及Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株带来的威胁。</blockquote> During the pandemic and the start of the recovery, Americans spent big on goods: Used car prices soared, as did prices for furniture and other household items, in response to surging demand and shortages of materials.<blockquote>在疫情和复苏开始期间，美国人在商品上花了很多钱：二手车价格飙升，家具和其他家居用品的价格也是如此，以应对需求激增和材料短缺。</blockquote> But in normal times, consumers spend much more on services like concerts or dining out —and the big spending on goods that has defined the pandemic recovery so far isn't sustainable to keep the US economy growing.<blockquote>但在正常情况下，消费者在音乐会或外出就餐等服务上的支出要多得多，而迄今为止，疫情复苏的大宗商品支出无法持续保持美国经济增长。</blockquote> That's why rotation is necessary in how people spend their cash, said Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker on Monday in a note to clients. But fears around the Delta variant are keeping services spending down.<blockquote>高盛经济学家罗尼·沃克周一在给客户的一份报告中表示，这就是为什么人们使用现金的方式需要轮换。但对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧正在压低服务支出。</blockquote> \"The services categories where spending remains depressed are generally either associated with high virus risk, such as live entertainment events, or connected to office-based work, such as ground transportation or dry cleaners,\" Walker wrote.<blockquote>沃克写道：“支出仍然低迷的服务类别通常要么与高病毒风险有关，例如现场娱乐活动，要么与办公室工作有关，例如地面交通或干洗店。”</blockquote> In response, Goldman slashed its gross domestic product growth forecast, the widest measure of economic activity, by one percentage point in both the third and fourth quarters.<blockquote>作为回应，高盛将第三季度和第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期下调了一个百分点，这是衡量经济活动的最广泛指标。</blockquote> Between July and September, the Wall Street bank expected 8.5% annualized growth, before dropping to 5% in the last three months of the year. For the full year, Goldman predicts 6.6% GDP growth.<blockquote>7月至9月期间，这家华尔街银行预计年化增长率为8.5%，然后在今年最后三个月降至5%。高盛预测全年GDP增长6.6%。</blockquote> From 2022 on, the pace of expansion will slow further, trending back toward the 1.5% to 2% annualized growth what the nation typically saw before the pandemic.<blockquote>从2022年开始，扩张步伐将进一步放缓，回到疫情之前该国通常看到的1.5%至2%的年化增长率。</blockquote> Even though roughly half of Americans are fully vaccinated, cases are rising. In 48 states, the rate of new Covid-19 cases in the past week jumped by at least 10% compared to the previous week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In 34 of those states, the rate of new cases increased by more than 50%.<blockquote>尽管大约一半的美国人完全接种了疫苗，但病例仍在上升。约翰·霍普金斯大学的数据显示，在48个州，过去一周新增Covid-19病例的比率比前一周上升了至少10%。在其中34个州，新病例率增加了50%以上。</blockquote> The rise of infections through the variant is coming at an inopportune time: The economy is still not back to normal, and the resurgence of infections could keep people from fully participating in the economy.<blockquote>通过该变种感染的上升来得不合时宜：经济仍未恢复正常，感染的死灰复燃可能会使人们无法充分参与经济。</blockquote> \"While most consumers appear to be comfortable returning to high-contact services, some are still hesitant,\" said Walker. \"They are likely to remain cautious for now as the spread of the Delta variant keeps Covid fears alive, delaying a full recovery.\"<blockquote>沃克说：“虽然大多数消费者似乎对重返高接触服务感到满意，但有些人仍然犹豫不决。”“他们目前可能会保持谨慎，因为德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延使人们对新冠病毒的担忧持续存在，从而推迟了全面复苏。”</blockquote> At the same time, Goldman's economists believe the Delta variant's impact on the economy will be somewhat limited: \"Appetite for new government-mandated restrictions appears low; early state-level evidence shows little impact on consumer spending so far; and the virus situation already appears to be improving in the United Kingdom and other countries where it spread earliest,\" Walker wrote.<blockquote>与此同时，高盛的经济学家认为，德尔塔变异毒株对经济的影响将在一定程度上有限：“对政府强制实施的新限制措施的兴趣似乎很低；早期的州级证据显示，到目前为止，对消费者支出的影响很小；而且病毒情况在英国和其他传播最早的国家似乎正在改善，”沃克写道。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/26/economy/goldman-sachs-services-economy-delta/index.html\">CNN</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/26/economy/goldman-sachs-services-economy-delta/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103996297","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its forecast for US economic activity in the second half of the year, pointing to sluggish consumer spending on services as well as the threats posed by the Covid-19 Delta variant.\nDuring the pandemic and the start of the recovery, Americans spent big on goods: Used car prices soared, as did prices for furniture and other household items, in response to surging demand and shortages of materials.\nBut in normal times, consumers spend much more on services like concerts or dining out —and the big spending on goods that has defined the pandemic recovery so far isn't sustainable to keep the US economy growing.\nThat's why rotation is necessary in how people spend their cash, said Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker on Monday in a note to clients. But fears around the Delta variant are keeping services spending down.\n\"The services categories where spending remains depressed are generally either associated with high virus risk, such as live entertainment events, or connected to office-based work, such as ground transportation or dry cleaners,\" Walker wrote.\nIn response, Goldman slashed its gross domestic product growth forecast, the widest measure of economic activity, by one percentage point in both the third and fourth quarters.\nBetween July and September, the Wall Street bank expected 8.5% annualized growth, before dropping to 5% in the last three months of the year. For the full year, Goldman predicts 6.6% GDP growth.\nFrom 2022 on, the pace of expansion will slow further, trending back toward the 1.5% to 2% annualized growth what the nation typically saw before the pandemic.\nEven though roughly half of Americans are fully vaccinated, cases are rising. In 48 states, the rate of new Covid-19 cases in the past week jumped by at least 10% compared to the previous week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In 34 of those states, the rate of new cases increased by more than 50%.\nThe rise of infections through the variant is coming at an inopportune time: The economy is still not back to normal, and the resurgence of infections could keep people from fully participating in the economy.\n\"While most consumers appear to be comfortable returning to high-contact services, some are still hesitant,\" said Walker. \"They are likely to remain cautious for now as the spread of the Delta variant keeps Covid fears alive, delaying a full recovery.\"\nAt the same time, Goldman's economists believe the Delta variant's impact on the economy will be somewhat limited: \"Appetite for new government-mandated restrictions appears low; early state-level evidence shows little impact on consumer spending so far; and the virus situation already appears to be improving in the United Kingdom and other countries where it spread earliest,\" Walker wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/809609226"}