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2021-08-26
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Taper, Delta, Inflation, and Powell’s Tough Task. What to Expect From Jackson Hole
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":810271769,"tweetId":"810271769","gmtCreate":1629984626151,"gmtModify":1631892318495,"author":{"id":3585350696038563,"idStr":"3585350696038563","authorId":3585350696038563,"authorIdStr":"3585350696038563","name":"JPTL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6dde4c2c1d83e8d80141b547948419","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810271769","repostId":1133915135,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133915135","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629976741,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133915135?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-26 19:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taper, Delta, Inflation, and Powell’s Tough Task. What to Expect From Jackson Hole","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133915135","media":"Barrons","summary":"Mum may be the word on tapering when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a central-bank","content":"<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d826a15e99bed01d05b4c5191464bb8\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"620\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Mum may be the word on tapering when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a central-bank symposium later this week.</span></p>\n<p>When he speaks at the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium Friday, Chairman Jerome Powell will try to balance conflicting forces that have grown more complicated since officials last met.</p>\n<p>The Fed’s Jackson Hole conference, which flipped to a virtual one late last week because of rising Covid-19 infections, brings together dozens of central bankers, policy makers and economists. Often a venue used by Fed chiefs to make major policy announcements, what isn’t said at this year’s conference may matter more than what is.</p>\n<p>Heading into the Jackson Hole summit, the stock market has been running higher, with the S&P 500up 1% and the more interest-rate-sensitive Nasdaq 100 higher by 2% this week. That’s as investors expect Powell to sound sufficiently dovish, and it’s after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last Friday voiced her support in Powell’s renomination as Fed chief by President Biden. That move, strategists say, makes it even less likely that Powell will be replaced when his four-year term expires in February.</p>\n<p>But Powell’s task is fraught. His speech, scheduled for 10 a.m. Eastern time Friday, is hotly anticipated and comes as economic growth seems to have peaked; minutes of the last Fed meeting showed how far apart the committee is on the state of the economy; and the Delta variant threatens to dash September back-to-school and back-to-work plans.</p>\n<p>That lack of consensus makes it tough for Powell to demonstrate conviction when he speaks Friday, says James McCann, economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “If there’s no clear signal coming from the committee, then there’s no clear signal that Powell can give at this stage. And markets like clear signals much more than delicate nuance,” McCann says.</p>\n<p>From clear signals to nuance, here is a rundown of what to watch for when Powell speaks Friday.</p>\n<p><b>Taper Talk</b></p>\n<p>Market strategists and economists across Wall Street expect some discussion around an eventual reduction in the emergency bond-buying program the Fed launched in response to the pandemic. Recently, however, expectations have shifted. Hardly anyone expects Powell to outline a fall start to tapering the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, and some who have been expecting a November announcement think 2022 is becoming more likely.</p>\n<p>Peter Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital, is looking for a loose, noncommittal plan, and he thinks Powell may suggest a slower wind-down than investors expect—meaning reductions might not be on monthly autopilot as in the last bond-buying wind-down.</p>\n<p>There are two main reasons some observers don’t expect to hear firm taper plans this week. First, there is the Delta-variant wildcard. Second, Powell will be reluctant to front-run the policy-making committee, which next meets Sept. 21-22.</p>\n<p>Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, points to one specific line in the July meeting minutes which he says is a tip that Fed watchers shouldn’t expect much in the way of tapering plans. When the Fed said “no decisions regarding future adjustments to asset purchases were made at this meeting,”it was a signal to seasoned Fed watchers to not expect much on tapering plans at Jackson Hole, Brusuelas says.</p>\n<p>Recent commentary out of Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan supports expectations for Powell to punt on taper specifics.The first official to say the Fed should start tapering soon, by which he meant this fall, Kaplan suggested the Delta variant could warrant a delay.</p>\n<p>“It’s unfolding rapidly,” Kaplan said on Fox Business Network last week, adding that the Delta variant is slowing down a return to the office and hiring and limiting production which is exacerbating supply constraints. “The thing that I am going to be watching very carefully over the next month, before the next meeting, is [whether] it is having a more material impact on slowing demand and slowing GDP growth. I’m going to keep an open mind on that, and if it is having a more negative effect that might cause me to adjust my views somewhat from ones that I’ve stated,” he said.</p>\n<p><b>Inflation Versus Delta</b></p>\n<p>In trying to thread the needle between acknowledging renewed economic risks from Covid-19 and satisfying hawks’ concerns about hot, persistent inflation, Powell runs the risk of disappointing one side.</p>\n<p>Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes, says he is worried Powell will leave markets unconvinced that the Fed is taking inflation seriously enough. “The Fed has been whistling past the graveyard on inflation for the better part of year,” he says. It was during last year’s Jackson Hole conference when Powell unveiled the Fed’s new policy framework, a major shift whereby the central bank tolerates higher inflation and prioritizes the full-employment side of its mandate.</p>\n<p>What does Orlando want to hear this year? “We get it. Inflation is here to stay and it’s time to pull back.” Still, Orlando wants assurance from Powell that tapering will be slow.</p>\n<p>Before Powell speaks Friday morning, the Fed’s favored inflation gauge will be reported for July. Economists polled by FactSet expect that the personal consumption expenditures index to have risen a tenth to 4.1% from a year earlier, with the measure excluding food and energy holding at 3.5%. The Fed’s longstanding inflation goal is 2%.</p>\n<p>How Powell frames uncertainty over the Delta variant’s economic impact is a difficult dance. On the one hand, plenty of investors will appreciate the excuse to delay tapering. On the other hand, expressing rising virus fear may spook investors already worried about economic growth and corporate earnings topping.</p>\n<p><b>Market Reactions</b></p>\n<p>Strategists are split on how they expect markets to respond to Powell on Friday, but most say volatility is likely.</p>\n<p>Orlando, for his part, thinks stocks will fall after Powell’s speech and is bracing for what he calls a 5-10% “air pocket” in stocks from Friday through October given mounting headwinds from inflation to Delta to geopolitics. A worst-case scenario, he says, could take the S&P 500 back down to the 200-day moving average of roughly 4000. (The S&P 500 was at 4498 at the time of writing.)</p>\n<p>Ahead of Friday’s speech, Orlando says he’s sticking with cyclical stocks over growth stocks, favoring financials, industrials, energy and materials.</p>\n<p>Brusuelas, meanwhile, says there is virtually no chance of a hawkish surprise and predicts a positive reaction to any perceived dovishness. That means higher for stocks and lower for Treasury yields, even if investors don’t get the clarity on the timing and magnitude of tapering that the market is craving, he says.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taper, Delta, Inflation, and Powell’s Tough Task. 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What to Expect From Jackson Hole\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-26 19:19 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/taper-delta-inflation-and-powells-tough-task-what-to-expect-from-jackson-hole-51629918449?mod=hp_LEAD_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Mum may be the word on tapering when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a central-bank symposium later this week.\nWhen he speaks at the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium Friday, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/taper-delta-inflation-and-powells-tough-task-what-to-expect-from-jackson-hole-51629918449?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/taper-delta-inflation-and-powells-tough-task-what-to-expect-from-jackson-hole-51629918449?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133915135","content_text":"Mum may be the word on tapering when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a central-bank symposium later this week.\nWhen he speaks at the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium Friday, Chairman Jerome Powell will try to balance conflicting forces that have grown more complicated since officials last met.\nThe Fed’s Jackson Hole conference, which flipped to a virtual one late last week because of rising Covid-19 infections, brings together dozens of central bankers, policy makers and economists. Often a venue used by Fed chiefs to make major policy announcements, what isn’t said at this year’s conference may matter more than what is.\nHeading into the Jackson Hole summit, the stock market has been running higher, with the S&P 500up 1% and the more interest-rate-sensitive Nasdaq 100 higher by 2% this week. That’s as investors expect Powell to sound sufficiently dovish, and it’s after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last Friday voiced her support in Powell’s renomination as Fed chief by President Biden. That move, strategists say, makes it even less likely that Powell will be replaced when his four-year term expires in February.\nBut Powell’s task is fraught. His speech, scheduled for 10 a.m. Eastern time Friday, is hotly anticipated and comes as economic growth seems to have peaked; minutes of the last Fed meeting showed how far apart the committee is on the state of the economy; and the Delta variant threatens to dash September back-to-school and back-to-work plans.\nThat lack of consensus makes it tough for Powell to demonstrate conviction when he speaks Friday, says James McCann, economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “If there’s no clear signal coming from the committee, then there’s no clear signal that Powell can give at this stage. And markets like clear signals much more than delicate nuance,” McCann says.\nFrom clear signals to nuance, here is a rundown of what to watch for when Powell speaks Friday.\nTaper Talk\nMarket strategists and economists across Wall Street expect some discussion around an eventual reduction in the emergency bond-buying program the Fed launched in response to the pandemic. Recently, however, expectations have shifted. Hardly anyone expects Powell to outline a fall start to tapering the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, and some who have been expecting a November announcement think 2022 is becoming more likely.\nPeter Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital, is looking for a loose, noncommittal plan, and he thinks Powell may suggest a slower wind-down than investors expect—meaning reductions might not be on monthly autopilot as in the last bond-buying wind-down.\nThere are two main reasons some observers don’t expect to hear firm taper plans this week. First, there is the Delta-variant wildcard. Second, Powell will be reluctant to front-run the policy-making committee, which next meets Sept. 21-22.\nJoe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, points to one specific line in the July meeting minutes which he says is a tip that Fed watchers shouldn’t expect much in the way of tapering plans. When the Fed said “no decisions regarding future adjustments to asset purchases were made at this meeting,”it was a signal to seasoned Fed watchers to not expect much on tapering plans at Jackson Hole, Brusuelas says.\nRecent commentary out of Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan supports expectations for Powell to punt on taper specifics.The first official to say the Fed should start tapering soon, by which he meant this fall, Kaplan suggested the Delta variant could warrant a delay.\n“It’s unfolding rapidly,” Kaplan said on Fox Business Network last week, adding that the Delta variant is slowing down a return to the office and hiring and limiting production which is exacerbating supply constraints. “The thing that I am going to be watching very carefully over the next month, before the next meeting, is [whether] it is having a more material impact on slowing demand and slowing GDP growth. I’m going to keep an open mind on that, and if it is having a more negative effect that might cause me to adjust my views somewhat from ones that I’ve stated,” he said.\nInflation Versus Delta\nIn trying to thread the needle between acknowledging renewed economic risks from Covid-19 and satisfying hawks’ concerns about hot, persistent inflation, Powell runs the risk of disappointing one side.\nPhil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes, says he is worried Powell will leave markets unconvinced that the Fed is taking inflation seriously enough. “The Fed has been whistling past the graveyard on inflation for the better part of year,” he says. It was during last year’s Jackson Hole conference when Powell unveiled the Fed’s new policy framework, a major shift whereby the central bank tolerates higher inflation and prioritizes the full-employment side of its mandate.\nWhat does Orlando want to hear this year? “We get it. Inflation is here to stay and it’s time to pull back.” Still, Orlando wants assurance from Powell that tapering will be slow.\nBefore Powell speaks Friday morning, the Fed’s favored inflation gauge will be reported for July. Economists polled by FactSet expect that the personal consumption expenditures index to have risen a tenth to 4.1% from a year earlier, with the measure excluding food and energy holding at 3.5%. The Fed’s longstanding inflation goal is 2%.\nHow Powell frames uncertainty over the Delta variant’s economic impact is a difficult dance. On the one hand, plenty of investors will appreciate the excuse to delay tapering. On the other hand, expressing rising virus fear may spook investors already worried about economic growth and corporate earnings topping.\nMarket Reactions\nStrategists are split on how they expect markets to respond to Powell on Friday, but most say volatility is likely.\nOrlando, for his part, thinks stocks will fall after Powell’s speech and is bracing for what he calls a 5-10% “air pocket” in stocks from Friday through October given mounting headwinds from inflation to Delta to geopolitics. A worst-case scenario, he says, could take the S&P 500 back down to the 200-day moving average of roughly 4000. (The S&P 500 was at 4498 at the time of writing.)\nAhead of Friday’s speech, Orlando says he’s sticking with cyclical stocks over growth stocks, favoring financials, industrials, energy and materials.\nBrusuelas, meanwhile, says there is virtually no chance of a hawkish surprise and predicts a positive reaction to any perceived dovishness. That means higher for stocks and lower for Treasury yields, even if investors don’t get the clarity on the timing and magnitude of tapering that the market is craving, he says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/810271769"}
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