StephanieCCH
2021-08-27
Interesting
Where Will IBM Stock Be In 5 Years? The Sum Vs. The Parts<blockquote>5年后IBM股票会在哪里？总和与部分</blockquote>
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The Sum Vs. The Parts<blockquote>5年后IBM股票会在哪里？总和与部分</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105148569","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM has seen sequential revenue declines for 9 out of the last 10 years, and its shareholde","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>IBM has seen sequential revenue declines for 9 out of the last 10 years, and its shareholders over this time have gotten to know pain and disappointment.</li> <li>The company now has a plan to spin off the low-growth/declining parts of the business into a new company called Kyndryl, while retaining the high-growth parts (cloud, AI, etc) at IBM.</li> <li>IBM is a cheap stock with a heavy debt load, declining revenue and margins, and a high dividend to pay. The spinoff could be their last hope at returning to greatness.</li> <li>Of course, the devil will be in the details with the spinoff, which is expected to close before year end.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/313d3fa3ce4a7636843bc498f8f8c2b8\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在过去10年中，IBM有9年的收入连续下降，在此期间，其股东已经感受到了痛苦和失望。</li><li>该公司现在计划将业务的低增长/下降部分剥离到一家名为Kyndryl的新公司，同时将高增长部分（云、人工智能等）保留在IBM。</li><li>IBM是一只廉价股票，债务负担沉重，收入和利润率下降，股息也很高。分拆可能是他们重返伟大的最后希望。</li><li>当然，细节问题将在于分拆，预计将在年底前完成。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Can IBM Grow?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM能成长吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM(NYSE:IBM), formally known as International Business Machines Corporation, is one of America's oldest and most venerable technology companies. However, over the past couple of decades, the company has struggled to compete with newer tech companies like Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN). As such, despite a futile decades-long effort to boost earnings per share via layoffs and debt-funded acquisitions and share buybacks, IBM has been unable to escape the reality of its declining revenue. As such, the market has slowly but surely punished IBM with a lower share price.</p><p><blockquote>IBM（纽约证券交易所代码：IBM），正式名称为国际商业机器公司，是美国历史最悠久、最受尊敬的科技公司之一。然而，在过去的几十年里，该公司一直在努力与亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）等新兴科技公司竞争。因此，尽管IBM几十年来通过裁员、债务融资收购和股票回购来提高每股收益的努力徒劳无功，但仍无法摆脱收入下降的现实。因此，市场缓慢但肯定地用较低的股价惩罚了IBM。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's management team has a new plan to turn it all around, and this time it just might work. The idea, spin-off the slow-growth parts of the business into a new company called Kyndryl while retaining high-growth divisions like cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and software (including Red Hat) at IBM. Kyndryl is certainly an odd choice for a company name. The name sounds like a cross between some kind of comic book villain and the antihistamine drug Benadryl, but that's the new entity where IBM appears set to dump most of their underperforming businesses into. The deal is expected to close before year-end.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的管理团队有一个新的计划来扭转局面，这一次它可能会奏效。这个想法是，将业务增长缓慢的部分分拆为一家名为Kyndryl的新公司，同时保留IBM的云计算、人工智能和软件（包括红帽）等高增长部门。Kyndryl对于公司名称来说无疑是一个奇怪的选择。这个名字听起来像是某种漫画书中的反派和抗组胺药物苯那君的结合体，但这是IBM似乎准备将其大部分表现不佳的业务倾销到的新实体中。该交易预计将在年底前完成。</blockquote></p><p> The logic here is that the software and cloud business would be worth more as an independent company without being bogged down by a shrinking legacy business with ~100,000 employees. In other words, the investment bankers behind the deal would surely tell you that the sum should be worth more than the parts, but a lot of whether this deal works depends on the details. For example, how will the debt be split up among the companies? Will unprofitable divisions be closed, retained at IBM, or spun-off to the new company? IBM has said that they intend to maintain the dividend, but AT&T(NYSE:T)was cornered by a lack of cash into breaking a similar promise with their recent spinoff announcement. We'll know more when Kyndryl files its initial Form 10 with the SEC. At least initially, the earnings power of the combined company should equal the sum of the two separate ones. Whether the tactic makes a meaningful change in the overall valuation of IBM will be an interesting case study. With this in mind, let's look at some financial and valuation metrics for IBM.</p><p><blockquote>这里的逻辑是，作为一家独立公司，软件和云业务的价值会更高，而不会因拥有约10万名员工的传统业务萎缩而陷入困境。换句话说，这笔交易背后的投资银行家肯定会告诉你，总和应该比部分更有价值，但这笔交易是否有效很大程度上取决于细节。例如，债务将如何在公司之间分配？不盈利的部门会被关闭、保留在IBM，还是分拆到新公司？IBM曾表示，他们打算维持股息，但AT&T(NYSE：T)因缺乏现金而陷入困境，在最近的分拆公告中违背了类似的承诺。当Kyndryl向SEC提交初始表格10时，我们将了解更多信息。至少在最初，合并后的公司的盈利能力应该等于两个独立公司的总和。该策略是否会对IBM的整体估值产生有意义的变化将是一个有趣的案例研究。考虑到这一点，让我们看看IBM的一些财务和估值指标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IBM Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股价</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eee324f760e76c8ac959f7ee715b5e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IBM Stock PriceData by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>IBM股价数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned earlier, IBM has not been able to grow its share price with financial engineering. The picture improves when you look at IBM from a total return perspective, but companies that pay dividends out of retained earnings while the share price falls like IBM has are simply just machines for turning the return of initial shareholder capital into taxable dividends. This creates unnecessary taxes for shareholders while the company's payout ratio and debt ratios deteriorate—a pointless, lose-lose situation.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，IBM一直未能通过金融工程来提高股价。当你从总回报的角度来看IBM时，情况会有所改善，但像IBM一样在股价下跌时从留存收益中支付股息的公司只是将初始股东资本回报转化为应税股息的机器。这给股东带来了不必要的税收，同时公司的派息率和债务比率恶化——这是一种毫无意义的双输局面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe790a96a6683b2f1a0704eebe48ff8f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts IBM Financials</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts IBM Financials</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>IBM Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM财务</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is IBM's revenue, (trailing 12 months by quarter) over the last 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>以下是IBM过去10年的收入（按季度连续12个月）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b9826ec419f86a8ceabaaadfeee6a6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now here's a look at IBM's operating margins, again for the last 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>现在来看看IBM过去10年的营业利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f9cd7d5bc1e17fe0d818f5ff86e0238\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And IBM's debt load.</p><p><blockquote>以及IBM的债务负担。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf23d4b9026a4201b443db26491d106a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking at IBM's balance sheet and income statement shows an unambiguous picture of a business in decline. This has been known for a long time. It's likely only a matter of time before the 4.7 percent dividend yield comes under pressure. Despite this, there are some signs of a turnaround. The past couple of quarterly earnings came in higher than estimates, and the dividend should be covered by expected earnings of $10.70for this year (the dividend wasn't covered last year).</p><p><blockquote>看看IBM的资产负债表和损益表，就可以清楚地看到该业务正在下滑。这一点早已为人所知。4.7%的股息收益率面临压力可能只是时间问题。尽管如此，还是有一些好转的迹象。过去几个季度的收益高于预期，今年10.70美元的预期收益应该可以支付股息（去年没有支付股息）。</blockquote></p><p> For next year, analysts expect earnings of nearly $12, but their revenue estimates are far more subdued, calling for about only a two-percent increase. There are a lot of things that companies can do to make earnings temporarily better, but revenue and revenue per share are much harder numbers to smooth out. To this point, I don't love IBM's accounting, the whole thing has a feel to it like they're robbing Peter to pay Paul, every quarter, for years on end.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计明年的收益将接近12美元，但他们的收入预期要低得多，仅增长约2%。公司可以做很多事情来暂时改善盈利，但收入和每股收益是更难平滑的数字。在这一点上，我不喜欢IBM的会计，整个事情给人一种他们连续几年每个季度都在拆东墙补西墙的感觉。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will IBM Be in 5 Years?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5年后IBM会在哪里？</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing we know is that IBM is highly likely to be two companies instead of one. IBM itself could likely trade for a higher multiple, perhaps in line with the S&P's P/E ratio in the low 20s, while Kyndryl is likely to trade somewhere below 10x earnings. Of the two, IBM is likely to be the better investment. I would expect that the earnings per share would slowly decline for Kyndryl while growing 5-10 percent annually for IBM. One wild card here is how the debt for the two companies is split up. There is going to be a temptation to place more of the debt in Kyndryl to turn the new IBM into a star performer. This is the stuff of corporate law firms who make a lot more money per hour than I do, but my feeling is that the long-term bonds issued by IBM probably are going to have to be guaranteed by both companies going forward in some capacity, depending on the debt covenants. Some recent debt covenant cases with Hewlett Packard(NYSE:HPQ)and Penn National(NASDAQ:PENN)are worth reading.</p><p><blockquote>我们知道的一件事是，IBM极有可能是两家公司，而不是一家。IBM本身的市盈率可能会更高，或许与标准普尔20多倍的市盈率一致，而Kyndryl的市盈率可能会低于10倍。在这两者中，IBM可能是更好的投资。我预计Kyndryl的每股收益将缓慢下降，而IBM的每股收益将每年增长5-10%。这里的一个不确定因素是两家公司的债务如何分割。将会有一种诱惑，将更多的债务放在Kyndryl，以将新的IBM变成一个明星。这是公司律师事务所的东西，他们每小时赚的钱比我多得多，但我的感觉是，IBM发行的长期债券可能必须由两家公司以某种身份担保，这取决于债务契约。最近与惠普（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）和宾夕法尼亚国民银行（纳斯达克股票代码：PENN）的一些债务契约案例值得一读。</blockquote></p><p> Just ballparking the combined company and recent earnings, my best estimate for 5-year returns is 0-2 percent annually if you hold both. Kyndryl probably will have to cut its dividend at some point if revenue doesn't start growing, while IBM itself can grow earnings handsomely on the software side and could possibly become a dividend growth stock. After the spinoff, I would expect high-single-digit annual returns for IBM proper and low-single-digit negative returns for Kyndryl. These would be subject to the valuations of both companies, but that's my best estimate at this point. What are your thoughts? Feel free to share your take in the comment section!</p><p><blockquote>如果您同时持有合并后的公司和最近的收益，我对5年回报率的最佳估计是每年0-2%。如果收入没有开始增长，Kyndryl可能不得不在某个时候削减股息，而IBM本身在软件方面的盈利可以大幅增长，并可能成为股息增长股。分拆后，我预计IBM proper的年回报率为高个位数，Kyndryl的年回报率为低个位数。这些将取决于两家公司的估值，但这是我目前最好的估计。你有什么想法？欢迎在评论区分享你的观点！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will IBM Stock Be In 5 Years? The Sum Vs. The Parts<blockquote>5年后IBM股票会在哪里？总和与部分</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will IBM Stock Be In 5 Years? The Sum Vs. The Parts<blockquote>5年后IBM股票会在哪里？总和与部分</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-26 23:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>IBM has seen sequential revenue declines for 9 out of the last 10 years, and its shareholders over this time have gotten to know pain and disappointment.</li> <li>The company now has a plan to spin off the low-growth/declining parts of the business into a new company called Kyndryl, while retaining the high-growth parts (cloud, AI, etc) at IBM.</li> <li>IBM is a cheap stock with a heavy debt load, declining revenue and margins, and a high dividend to pay. The spinoff could be their last hope at returning to greatness.</li> <li>Of course, the devil will be in the details with the spinoff, which is expected to close before year end.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/313d3fa3ce4a7636843bc498f8f8c2b8\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在过去10年中，IBM有9年的收入连续下降，在此期间，其股东已经感受到了痛苦和失望。</li><li>该公司现在计划将业务的低增长/下降部分剥离到一家名为Kyndryl的新公司，同时将高增长部分（云、人工智能等）保留在IBM。</li><li>IBM是一只廉价股票，债务负担沉重，收入和利润率下降，股息也很高。分拆可能是他们重返伟大的最后希望。</li><li>当然，细节问题将在于分拆，预计将在年底前完成。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Can IBM Grow?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM能成长吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM(NYSE:IBM), formally known as International Business Machines Corporation, is one of America's oldest and most venerable technology companies. However, over the past couple of decades, the company has struggled to compete with newer tech companies like Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN). As such, despite a futile decades-long effort to boost earnings per share via layoffs and debt-funded acquisitions and share buybacks, IBM has been unable to escape the reality of its declining revenue. As such, the market has slowly but surely punished IBM with a lower share price.</p><p><blockquote>IBM（纽约证券交易所代码：IBM），正式名称为国际商业机器公司，是美国历史最悠久、最受尊敬的科技公司之一。然而，在过去的几十年里，该公司一直在努力与亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）等新兴科技公司竞争。因此，尽管IBM几十年来通过裁员、债务融资收购和股票回购来提高每股收益的努力徒劳无功，但仍无法摆脱收入下降的现实。因此，市场缓慢但肯定地用较低的股价惩罚了IBM。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's management team has a new plan to turn it all around, and this time it just might work. The idea, spin-off the slow-growth parts of the business into a new company called Kyndryl while retaining high-growth divisions like cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and software (including Red Hat) at IBM. Kyndryl is certainly an odd choice for a company name. The name sounds like a cross between some kind of comic book villain and the antihistamine drug Benadryl, but that's the new entity where IBM appears set to dump most of their underperforming businesses into. The deal is expected to close before year-end.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的管理团队有一个新的计划来扭转局面，这一次它可能会奏效。这个想法是，将业务增长缓慢的部分分拆为一家名为Kyndryl的新公司，同时保留IBM的云计算、人工智能和软件（包括红帽）等高增长部门。Kyndryl对于公司名称来说无疑是一个奇怪的选择。这个名字听起来像是某种漫画书中的反派和抗组胺药物苯那君的结合体，但这是IBM似乎准备将其大部分表现不佳的业务倾销到的新实体中。该交易预计将在年底前完成。</blockquote></p><p> The logic here is that the software and cloud business would be worth more as an independent company without being bogged down by a shrinking legacy business with ~100,000 employees. In other words, the investment bankers behind the deal would surely tell you that the sum should be worth more than the parts, but a lot of whether this deal works depends on the details. For example, how will the debt be split up among the companies? Will unprofitable divisions be closed, retained at IBM, or spun-off to the new company? IBM has said that they intend to maintain the dividend, but AT&T(NYSE:T)was cornered by a lack of cash into breaking a similar promise with their recent spinoff announcement. We'll know more when Kyndryl files its initial Form 10 with the SEC. At least initially, the earnings power of the combined company should equal the sum of the two separate ones. Whether the tactic makes a meaningful change in the overall valuation of IBM will be an interesting case study. With this in mind, let's look at some financial and valuation metrics for IBM.</p><p><blockquote>这里的逻辑是，作为一家独立公司，软件和云业务的价值会更高，而不会因拥有约10万名员工的传统业务萎缩而陷入困境。换句话说，这笔交易背后的投资银行家肯定会告诉你，总和应该比部分更有价值，但这笔交易是否有效很大程度上取决于细节。例如，债务将如何在公司之间分配？不盈利的部门会被关闭、保留在IBM，还是分拆到新公司？IBM曾表示，他们打算维持股息，但AT&T(NYSE：T)因缺乏现金而陷入困境，在最近的分拆公告中违背了类似的承诺。当Kyndryl向SEC提交初始表格10时，我们将了解更多信息。至少在最初，合并后的公司的盈利能力应该等于两个独立公司的总和。该策略是否会对IBM的整体估值产生有意义的变化将是一个有趣的案例研究。考虑到这一点，让我们看看IBM的一些财务和估值指标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IBM Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股价</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eee324f760e76c8ac959f7ee715b5e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IBM Stock PriceData by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>IBM股价数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned earlier, IBM has not been able to grow its share price with financial engineering. The picture improves when you look at IBM from a total return perspective, but companies that pay dividends out of retained earnings while the share price falls like IBM has are simply just machines for turning the return of initial shareholder capital into taxable dividends. This creates unnecessary taxes for shareholders while the company's payout ratio and debt ratios deteriorate—a pointless, lose-lose situation.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，IBM一直未能通过金融工程来提高股价。当你从总回报的角度来看IBM时，情况会有所改善，但像IBM一样在股价下跌时从留存收益中支付股息的公司只是将初始股东资本回报转化为应税股息的机器。这给股东带来了不必要的税收，同时公司的派息率和债务比率恶化——这是一种毫无意义的双输局面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe790a96a6683b2f1a0704eebe48ff8f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts IBM Financials</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts IBM Financials</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>IBM Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM财务</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is IBM's revenue, (trailing 12 months by quarter) over the last 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>以下是IBM过去10年的收入（按季度连续12个月）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b9826ec419f86a8ceabaaadfeee6a6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now here's a look at IBM's operating margins, again for the last 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>现在来看看IBM过去10年的营业利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f9cd7d5bc1e17fe0d818f5ff86e0238\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And IBM's debt load.</p><p><blockquote>以及IBM的债务负担。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf23d4b9026a4201b443db26491d106a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking at IBM's balance sheet and income statement shows an unambiguous picture of a business in decline. This has been known for a long time. It's likely only a matter of time before the 4.7 percent dividend yield comes under pressure. Despite this, there are some signs of a turnaround. The past couple of quarterly earnings came in higher than estimates, and the dividend should be covered by expected earnings of $10.70for this year (the dividend wasn't covered last year).</p><p><blockquote>看看IBM的资产负债表和损益表，就可以清楚地看到该业务正在下滑。这一点早已为人所知。4.7%的股息收益率面临压力可能只是时间问题。尽管如此，还是有一些好转的迹象。过去几个季度的收益高于预期，今年10.70美元的预期收益应该可以支付股息（去年没有支付股息）。</blockquote></p><p> For next year, analysts expect earnings of nearly $12, but their revenue estimates are far more subdued, calling for about only a two-percent increase. There are a lot of things that companies can do to make earnings temporarily better, but revenue and revenue per share are much harder numbers to smooth out. To this point, I don't love IBM's accounting, the whole thing has a feel to it like they're robbing Peter to pay Paul, every quarter, for years on end.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计明年的收益将接近12美元，但他们的收入预期要低得多，仅增长约2%。公司可以做很多事情来暂时改善盈利，但收入和每股收益是更难平滑的数字。在这一点上，我不喜欢IBM的会计，整个事情给人一种他们连续几年每个季度都在拆东墙补西墙的感觉。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will IBM Be in 5 Years?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5年后IBM会在哪里？</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing we know is that IBM is highly likely to be two companies instead of one. IBM itself could likely trade for a higher multiple, perhaps in line with the S&P's P/E ratio in the low 20s, while Kyndryl is likely to trade somewhere below 10x earnings. Of the two, IBM is likely to be the better investment. I would expect that the earnings per share would slowly decline for Kyndryl while growing 5-10 percent annually for IBM. One wild card here is how the debt for the two companies is split up. There is going to be a temptation to place more of the debt in Kyndryl to turn the new IBM into a star performer. This is the stuff of corporate law firms who make a lot more money per hour than I do, but my feeling is that the long-term bonds issued by IBM probably are going to have to be guaranteed by both companies going forward in some capacity, depending on the debt covenants. Some recent debt covenant cases with Hewlett Packard(NYSE:HPQ)and Penn National(NASDAQ:PENN)are worth reading.</p><p><blockquote>我们知道的一件事是，IBM极有可能是两家公司，而不是一家。IBM本身的市盈率可能会更高，或许与标准普尔20多倍的市盈率一致，而Kyndryl的市盈率可能会低于10倍。在这两者中，IBM可能是更好的投资。我预计Kyndryl的每股收益将缓慢下降，而IBM的每股收益将每年增长5-10%。这里的一个不确定因素是两家公司的债务如何分割。将会有一种诱惑，将更多的债务放在Kyndryl，以将新的IBM变成一个明星。这是公司律师事务所的东西，他们每小时赚的钱比我多得多，但我的感觉是，IBM发行的长期债券可能必须由两家公司以某种身份担保，这取决于债务契约。最近与惠普（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）和宾夕法尼亚国民银行（纳斯达克股票代码：PENN）的一些债务契约案例值得一读。</blockquote></p><p> Just ballparking the combined company and recent earnings, my best estimate for 5-year returns is 0-2 percent annually if you hold both. Kyndryl probably will have to cut its dividend at some point if revenue doesn't start growing, while IBM itself can grow earnings handsomely on the software side and could possibly become a dividend growth stock. After the spinoff, I would expect high-single-digit annual returns for IBM proper and low-single-digit negative returns for Kyndryl. These would be subject to the valuations of both companies, but that's my best estimate at this point. What are your thoughts? Feel free to share your take in the comment section!</p><p><blockquote>如果您同时持有合并后的公司和最近的收益，我对5年回报率的最佳估计是每年0-2%。如果收入没有开始增长，Kyndryl可能不得不在某个时候削减股息，而IBM本身在软件方面的盈利可以大幅增长，并可能成为股息增长股。分拆后，我预计IBM proper的年回报率为高个位数，Kyndryl的年回报率为低个位数。这些将取决于两家公司的估值，但这是我目前最好的估计。你有什么想法？欢迎在评论区分享你的观点！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451811-ibm-stock-5-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451811-ibm-stock-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105148569","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM has seen sequential revenue declines for 9 out of the last 10 years, and its shareholders over this time have gotten to know pain and disappointment.\nThe company now has a plan to spin off the low-growth/declining parts of the business into a new company called Kyndryl, while retaining the high-growth parts (cloud, AI, etc) at IBM.\nIBM is a cheap stock with a heavy debt load, declining revenue and margins, and a high dividend to pay. The spinoff could be their last hope at returning to greatness.\nOf course, the devil will be in the details with the spinoff, which is expected to close before year end.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nCan IBM Grow?\nIBM(NYSE:IBM), formally known as International Business Machines Corporation, is one of America's oldest and most venerable technology companies. However, over the past couple of decades, the company has struggled to compete with newer tech companies like Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN). As such, despite a futile decades-long effort to boost earnings per share via layoffs and debt-funded acquisitions and share buybacks, IBM has been unable to escape the reality of its declining revenue. As such, the market has slowly but surely punished IBM with a lower share price.\nIBM's management team has a new plan to turn it all around, and this time it just might work. The idea, spin-off the slow-growth parts of the business into a new company called Kyndryl while retaining high-growth divisions like cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and software (including Red Hat) at IBM. Kyndryl is certainly an odd choice for a company name. The name sounds like a cross between some kind of comic book villain and the antihistamine drug Benadryl, but that's the new entity where IBM appears set to dump most of their underperforming businesses into. The deal is expected to close before year-end.\nThe logic here is that the software and cloud business would be worth more as an independent company without being bogged down by a shrinking legacy business with ~100,000 employees. In other words, the investment bankers behind the deal would surely tell you that the sum should be worth more than the parts, but a lot of whether this deal works depends on the details. For example, how will the debt be split up among the companies? Will unprofitable divisions be closed, retained at IBM, or spun-off to the new company? IBM has said that they intend to maintain the dividend, but AT&T(NYSE:T)was cornered by a lack of cash into breaking a similar promise with their recent spinoff announcement. We'll know more when Kyndryl files its initial Form 10 with the SEC. At least initially, the earnings power of the combined company should equal the sum of the two separate ones. Whether the tactic makes a meaningful change in the overall valuation of IBM will be an interesting case study. With this in mind, let's look at some financial and valuation metrics for IBM.\nIBM Stock Price\nIBM Stock PriceData by YCharts\nAs mentioned earlier, IBM has not been able to grow its share price with financial engineering. The picture improves when you look at IBM from a total return perspective, but companies that pay dividends out of retained earnings while the share price falls like IBM has are simply just machines for turning the return of initial shareholder capital into taxable dividends. This creates unnecessary taxes for shareholders while the company's payout ratio and debt ratios deteriorate—a pointless, lose-lose situation.\nData by YCharts IBM Financials\nIBM Financials\nHere is IBM's revenue, (trailing 12 months by quarter) over the last 10 years.\nData by YCharts\nNow here's a look at IBM's operating margins, again for the last 10 years.\nData by YCharts\nAnd IBM's debt load.\nData by YCharts\nLooking at IBM's balance sheet and income statement shows an unambiguous picture of a business in decline. This has been known for a long time. It's likely only a matter of time before the 4.7 percent dividend yield comes under pressure. Despite this, there are some signs of a turnaround. The past couple of quarterly earnings came in higher than estimates, and the dividend should be covered by expected earnings of $10.70for this year (the dividend wasn't covered last year).\nFor next year, analysts expect earnings of nearly $12, but their revenue estimates are far more subdued, calling for about only a two-percent increase. There are a lot of things that companies can do to make earnings temporarily better, but revenue and revenue per share are much harder numbers to smooth out. To this point, I don't love IBM's accounting, the whole thing has a feel to it like they're robbing Peter to pay Paul, every quarter, for years on end.\nWhere Will IBM Be in 5 Years?\nOne thing we know is that IBM is highly likely to be two companies instead of one. IBM itself could likely trade for a higher multiple, perhaps in line with the S&P's P/E ratio in the low 20s, while Kyndryl is likely to trade somewhere below 10x earnings. Of the two, IBM is likely to be the better investment. I would expect that the earnings per share would slowly decline for Kyndryl while growing 5-10 percent annually for IBM. One wild card here is how the debt for the two companies is split up. There is going to be a temptation to place more of the debt in Kyndryl to turn the new IBM into a star performer. This is the stuff of corporate law firms who make a lot more money per hour than I do, but my feeling is that the long-term bonds issued by IBM probably are going to have to be guaranteed by both companies going forward in some capacity, depending on the debt covenants. Some recent debt covenant cases with Hewlett Packard(NYSE:HPQ)and Penn National(NASDAQ:PENN)are worth reading.\nJust ballparking the combined company and recent earnings, my best estimate for 5-year returns is 0-2 percent annually if you hold both. Kyndryl probably will have to cut its dividend at some point if revenue doesn't start growing, while IBM itself can grow earnings handsomely on the software side and could possibly become a dividend growth stock. After the spinoff, I would expect high-single-digit annual returns for IBM proper and low-single-digit negative returns for Kyndryl. These would be subject to the valuations of both companies, but that's my best estimate at this point. What are your thoughts? Feel free to share your take in the comment section!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2788,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/810455334"}
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