What goes up will eventually c_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-09-03

What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall

What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":815352738,"tweetId":"815352738","gmtCreate":1630648763424,"gmtModify":1631883982194,"author":{"id":4090570965971460,"idStr":"4090570965971460","authorId":4090570965971460,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall</body></html>","text":"What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815352738","repostId":1115112299,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112299","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630641559,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115112299?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112299","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li> <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li> <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li> <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> Introduction<blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款忍耐即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022年股市盈利预期可能太高了。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报命题。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者萨姆·科瓦奇一起分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul>介绍</blockquote> Logan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.<blockquote>洛根-美国政府已经转向前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/驱逐暂停、PPP和提高失业福利。到目前为止，这一努力似乎是成功的，尽管批评者指出，这导致了通货膨胀的显著上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远保持3万亿美元的赤字，至少在每个人都没有通过高于其收入的消费者价格来隐性支付赤字的情况下。</blockquote> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.<blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，通过刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自身生产力而不是临时转移支付来运行时会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激措施，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入记录（2021年每股收入在200美元至205美元之间，而2019年的纪录为163美元）。此外，华尔街分析师预计标普500 2022年每股收益约为215美元，这将再创历史新高。当你计算生产率和经济产出的数字时，情况就不那么好了，这有助于解释为什么现在商品和服务如此短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能反映企业在中期内的收入（剔除消费者支出临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收入数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.<blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这有大约50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多轻松赚钱的投资者涌入低信心、高势头的股票，取消刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合平衡造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是同伴寻求阿尔法作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管住在德克萨斯州郊区，与我相隔半个地球，但我和萨姆对市场的看法却出奇地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote> Sam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.<blockquote>山姆-在美联储对疫情做出反应的头几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早取消刺激措施和通胀失控风险之间取得平衡绝非易事。政府回顾了之前的崩盘，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.<blockquote>不断告诉人们这是“暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但是任何学过经济学101的人都知道，通货膨胀是自我驱动的。起初，公司是反动的，但后来它们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:<blockquote>来自荷美尔(HRL)的最新电话：</blockquote> We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.<blockquote>我们在整个投资组合中采取了大量定价行动来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，并可能采取额外的定价行动。</blockquote> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:<blockquote>来自康尼格拉(CAG)的最新电话：</blockquote> And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.<blockquote>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的最初通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们还将推出更多定价。</blockquote> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.<blockquote>未来几个季度不会出现食品通胀。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比数据，这继续导致整体通胀率上升。</blockquote> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.<blockquote>食品、交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以提供学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.<blockquote>但刺激不可能永远持续下去。由于达美航空正在减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消退时会发生什么？这就是我们将在本文的其余部分中讨论的内容。</blockquote> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium<blockquote>暂停驱逐/取消抵押品赎回权</blockquote> Logan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.<blockquote>洛根-止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的驱逐禁令。根据我的最新统计，目前约有150万家庭处于延期计划中（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国的抵押贷款数量约为5000万。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠付款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终出售，收集他们的股权，并搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款为负资产，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在的情况并非如此——我不认为取消抵押品赎回权会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，一年大约有600-700万套房屋被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月的时间内出售，这对于那些为购买房屋短缺而苦苦挣扎的人和那些无法支付所拥有房屋的人来说是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回到过去10年的平均4%左右，同时人们正在抛售他们一直忍住的房子，价格将会进一步下跌。</blockquote> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.<blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠额外的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会大幅缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠租金，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽视刺激措施放松的盈利预测也没有正确考虑到这一点。</blockquote> Sam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.<blockquote>山姆-正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.<blockquote>联邦驱逐禁令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该涌入住宅房地产投资信托基金。正如下面埃塞克斯地产(ESS)的MAD图表所示，已经从严重低估回到历史高估。我们之前建议投资者出售ESS。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe<blockquote>资料来源：股息自由部落</blockquote> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.<blockquote>看看该街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也会出现同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities(AVB)历来也被高估。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe<blockquote>资料来源：股息自由部落</blockquote> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.<blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，似乎没有比卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)更高估的了，如果情绪发生变化，卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)很容易下跌1/3。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe<blockquote>资料来源：股息自由部落</blockquote> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.<blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经过去了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.<blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的：“买入谣言/卖出消息”。</blockquote> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.<blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆将给某一部分人口的消费带来压力。</blockquote> Student Loan Forbearance<blockquote>学生贷款延期</blockquote> Logan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.<blockquote>洛根-拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期限延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人拥有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在30岁以下，这个群体的支出占其收入的比例高于50岁的退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是税后美元，这就像是反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们因不偿还贷款而获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费、投资加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站(GME)等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上阶层的专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事贸易并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配到较高的社会阶层（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是1.7多万亿美元的美国学生贷款，这些贷款在这21个月内通常没有被那些欠债的人偿还。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在高。2022年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote> Sam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).<blockquote>山姆-当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最容易的刺激形式。由于大多数贷款都是联邦贷款，暂停付款不会对任何人造成足够的伤害来抱怨。由于施舍不是直接的，批评者不像对刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的资金，无论是股票还是加密货币，将在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时流出。这是否会产生足够的影响来推动市场值得怀疑，但随着很大一部分人必须恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算日。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人口来说将是严酷的。至少您仍然可以在AMC剧院(AMC)观看电影。</blockquote> Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks<blockquote>加强失业和刺激检查</blockquote> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.<blockquote>洛根——增强失业将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法领取失业救济金。联邦政府每周向失业者发放33亿美元，这比12个月前要少得多。当它消失时，它将成为抑制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普政府之前的付款外，一个收入中位数的4口之家在3月份还会看到5600美元的刺激支票。这些不会再出去了，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但目前的形式也将于12月到期。</blockquote> Sam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.<blockquote>山姆-失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们可能会看到800万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终在1000万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在未来几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote> Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?<blockquote>结论：接下来会发生什么？</blockquote> Logan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.<blockquote>洛根-亚马逊(AMZN)、Zoom Video(ZM)和Peloton(PTON)等公司的盈利大幅下滑表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于那些受益于暂时变化的公司来说，美好时光将永远持续下去。大流行。从宏观层面来看，这是否属实的可能性很大，而且取决于今年剩余时间的盈利结果，它最终可能会成为现实。虽然市场价格并不一定会因此大幅下跌，但很难否认市场的风险回报权衡在过去6-12个月中已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们看来，一个好的防御是投资于优质公司，而不是基本面中等的热门高动能股票，并从长远角度来看。</blockquote> Sam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.<blockquote>山姆-充气列车已经离开车站了。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激已经启动了通胀周期，通胀将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株削弱了外出就餐或旅行等一些经济指标，但随着该国病例数已经达到峰值，经济将继续升温。</blockquote> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.<blockquote>这将导致锥度。更高的利率，甚至更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润一文不值的奇特方式。</blockquote> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?<blockquote>投资者希望仔细审视他们的投资组合，并询问他们是否拥有被过度高估的头寸？</blockquote> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).<blockquote>无需关注市场中不起眼的部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.<blockquote>例如，我无法理解像Intuit(INTU)这样的股票目前的交易价格是销售额的16倍？即使按照通常8-9倍的销售额来衡量，这也是异常高的。将其与该股票的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.<blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、经营规模大、估值相对便宜的公司。</blockquote> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.<blockquote>前100名股票中我想到的是安进(AMGN)，该公司目前的收益率超过3%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe<blockquote>资料来源：股息自由部落</blockquote> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.<blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际（PM）、博通（AVGO）和摩根士丹利（MS.PK）相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.<blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格购买具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的取消将打击消费，从而影响盈利结果。估值过高的名字的重大失误会带来麻烦。负责任的做法是在股票估值过高时退出。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-09-03 11:59\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li> <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li> <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li> <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> Introduction<blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款忍耐即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022年股市盈利预期可能太高了。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报命题。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者萨姆·科瓦奇一起分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul>介绍</blockquote> Logan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.<blockquote>洛根-美国政府已经转向前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/驱逐暂停、PPP和提高失业福利。到目前为止，这一努力似乎是成功的，尽管批评者指出，这导致了通货膨胀的显著上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远保持3万亿美元的赤字，至少在每个人都没有通过高于其收入的消费者价格来隐性支付赤字的情况下。</blockquote> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.<blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，通过刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自身生产力而不是临时转移支付来运行时会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激措施，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入记录（2021年每股收入在200美元至205美元之间，而2019年的纪录为163美元）。此外，华尔街分析师预计标普500 2022年每股收益约为215美元，这将再创历史新高。当你计算生产率和经济产出的数字时，情况就不那么好了，这有助于解释为什么现在商品和服务如此短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能反映企业在中期内的收入（剔除消费者支出临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收入数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.<blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这有大约50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多轻松赚钱的投资者涌入低信心、高势头的股票，取消刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合平衡造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是同伴寻求阿尔法作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管住在德克萨斯州郊区，与我相隔半个地球，但我和萨姆对市场的看法却出奇地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote> Sam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.<blockquote>山姆-在美联储对疫情做出反应的头几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早取消刺激措施和通胀失控风险之间取得平衡绝非易事。政府回顾了之前的崩盘，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.<blockquote>不断告诉人们这是“暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但是任何学过经济学101的人都知道，通货膨胀是自我驱动的。起初，公司是反动的，但后来它们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:<blockquote>来自荷美尔(HRL)的最新电话：</blockquote> We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.<blockquote>我们在整个投资组合中采取了大量定价行动来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，并可能采取额外的定价行动。</blockquote> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:<blockquote>来自康尼格拉(CAG)的最新电话：</blockquote> And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.<blockquote>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的最初通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们还将推出更多定价。</blockquote> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.<blockquote>未来几个季度不会出现食品通胀。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比数据，这继续导致整体通胀率上升。</blockquote> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.<blockquote>食品、交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以提供学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.<blockquote>但刺激不可能永远持续下去。由于达美航空正在减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消退时会发生什么？这就是我们将在本文的其余部分中讨论的内容。</blockquote> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium<blockquote>暂停驱逐/取消抵押品赎回权</blockquote> Logan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.<blockquote>洛根-止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的驱逐禁令。根据我的最新统计，目前约有150万家庭处于延期计划中（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国的抵押贷款数量约为5000万。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠付款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终出售，收集他们的股权，并搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款为负资产，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在的情况并非如此——我不认为取消抵押品赎回权会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，一年大约有600-700万套房屋被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月的时间内出售，这对于那些为购买房屋短缺而苦苦挣扎的人和那些无法支付所拥有房屋的人来说是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回到过去10年的平均4%左右，同时人们正在抛售他们一直忍住的房子，价格将会进一步下跌。</blockquote> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.<blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠额外的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会大幅缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠租金，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽视刺激措施放松的盈利预测也没有正确考虑到这一点。</blockquote> Sam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.<blockquote>山姆-正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.<blockquote>联邦驱逐禁令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该涌入住宅房地产投资信托基金。正如下面埃塞克斯地产(ESS)的MAD图表所示，已经从严重低估回到历史高估。我们之前建议投资者出售ESS。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe<blockquote>资料来源：股息自由部落</blockquote> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.<blockquote>看看该街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也会出现同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities(AVB)历来也被高估。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe<blockquote>资料来源：股息自由部落</blockquote> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.<blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，似乎没有比卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)更高估的了，如果情绪发生变化，卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)很容易下跌1/3。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe<blockquote>资料来源：股息自由部落</blockquote> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.<blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经过去了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.<blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的：“买入谣言/卖出消息”。</blockquote> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.<blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆将给某一部分人口的消费带来压力。</blockquote> Student Loan Forbearance<blockquote>学生贷款延期</blockquote> Logan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.<blockquote>洛根-拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期限延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人拥有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在30岁以下，这个群体的支出占其收入的比例高于50岁的退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是税后美元，这就像是反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们因不偿还贷款而获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费、投资加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站(GME)等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上阶层的专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事贸易并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配到较高的社会阶层（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是1.7多万亿美元的美国学生贷款，这些贷款在这21个月内通常没有被那些欠债的人偿还。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在高。2022年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote> Sam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).<blockquote>山姆-当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最容易的刺激形式。由于大多数贷款都是联邦贷款，暂停付款不会对任何人造成足够的伤害来抱怨。由于施舍不是直接的，批评者不像对刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的资金，无论是股票还是加密货币，将在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时流出。这是否会产生足够的影响来推动市场值得怀疑，但随着很大一部分人必须恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算日。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人口来说将是严酷的。至少您仍然可以在AMC剧院(AMC)观看电影。</blockquote> Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks<blockquote>加强失业和刺激检查</blockquote> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.<blockquote>洛根——增强失业将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法领取失业救济金。联邦政府每周向失业者发放33亿美元，这比12个月前要少得多。当它消失时，它将成为抑制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普政府之前的付款外，一个收入中位数的4口之家在3月份还会看到5600美元的刺激支票。这些不会再出去了，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但目前的形式也将于12月到期。</blockquote> Sam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.<blockquote>山姆-失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们可能会看到800万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终在1000万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在未来几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote> Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?<blockquote>结论：接下来会发生什么？</blockquote> Logan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.<blockquote>洛根-亚马逊(AMZN)、Zoom Video(ZM)和Peloton(PTON)等公司的盈利大幅下滑表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于那些受益于暂时变化的公司来说，美好时光将永远持续下去。大流行。从宏观层面来看，这是否属实的可能性很大，而且取决于今年剩余时间的盈利结果，它最终可能会成为现实。虽然市场价格并不一定会因此大幅下跌，但很难否认市场的风险回报权衡在过去6-12个月中已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们看来，一个好的防御是投资于优质公司，而不是基本面中等的热门高动能股票，并从长远角度来看。</blockquote> Sam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.<blockquote>山姆-充气列车已经离开车站了。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激已经启动了通胀周期，通胀将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株削弱了外出就餐或旅行等一些经济指标，但随着该国病例数已经达到峰值，经济将继续升温。</blockquote> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.<blockquote>这将导致锥度。更高的利率，甚至更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润一文不值的奇特方式。</blockquote> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?<blockquote>投资者希望仔细审视他们的投资组合，并询问他们是否拥有被过度高估的头寸？</blockquote> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).<blockquote>无需关注市场中不起眼的部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.<blockquote>例如，我无法理解像Intuit(INTU)这样的股票目前的交易价格是销售额的16倍？即使按照通常8-9倍的销售额来衡量，这也是异常高的。将其与该股票的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.<blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、经营规模大、估值相对便宜的公司。</blockquote> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.<blockquote>前100名股票中我想到的是安进(AMGN)，该公司目前的收益率超过3%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe<blockquote>资料来源：股息自由部落</blockquote> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.<blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际（PM）、博通（AVGO）和摩根士丹利（MS.PK）相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.<blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格购买具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的取消将打击消费，从而影响盈利结果。估值过高的名字的重大失误会带来麻烦。负责任的做法是在股票估值过高时退出。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112299","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.\nIn light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.\nI break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.\n\nIntroduction\nLogan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.\nThe weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.\nPutting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.\nSam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.\nKeep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.\nFrom Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:\nWe have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.\nFrom Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:\nAnd the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.\nThere will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.\nFood & transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.\nBut the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.\nThe Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium\nLogan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.\nEvictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.\nSam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.\nThe end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.\n\nSource:Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLooking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNone seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nI believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.\nTaking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.\nIf we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.\nStudent Loan Forbearance\nLogan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.\nSam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).\nEnhanced Unemployment & Stimulus Checks\nLogan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.\nSam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.\nConclusion: What Is Yet to Come?\nLogan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.\nSam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.\nThis will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.\nInvestors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?\nNo need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nFor instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.\nInvestors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.\nAmong those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nPhilip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.\nIn such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. 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