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2021-09-03

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August Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Miss, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>8 月份工资单预览：这将是一个失误，问题是有多大</blockquote>

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Other metrics, however, offer a gloomier assessment: the ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys allude to a cooling in labor market conditions, with the Delta variant being cited as a reason for the softer pace of hiring. Given that the jobs data will be framed within the context of the Fed's policy reaction, many analysts have been suggesting a'good data is bad for the prospects of further accommodation'playbook, and vice versa; however, this strategy was not seen in wake of the disappointing ADP data this week. Many argue that the market has already moved on from the timing of the taper announcement – assumed to be in Q4 before implementation late this year or early next – and focus is on the pace of the reductions and the duration of the taper, and the August jobs data is not likely to inform the latter two meaningfully.<blockquote><ul><li>总体非农就业人数预计将达到 72.5 万（之前为 94.3 万）。</li><li>失业率预计将下降0.2%至5.2%，尽管这一数字可能无法真实反映劳动力市场；</li><li>分析师将关注参与率（从 6 月份的 61.6% 升至 7 月份的 61.7%，而大流行前的 63.2%）、U6 就业不足指标（从 6 月份的 9.8% 降至 7 月份的 9.2%，而大流行前的 7.0%）和就业人口比率（从 6 月份的 58.0% 升至 7 月份的 58.4%，而大流行前的 61.1%）。</li><li>平均时薪预计环比增长 0.3%，低于 7 月份的 0.4%，同比增长 4.0%。</li></ul>八月份劳动力市场指标好坏参半：尽管 ADP 的私人就业人数（再次）低于预期，但每周首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请人数降至大流行后的新低。然而，其他指标提供了一个更悲观的评估：ISM 和 Markit 制造业调查暗示劳动力市场状况降温，德尔塔变异毒株被认为是招聘步伐放缓的原因。鉴于就业数据将在美联储政策反应的背景下制定，许多分析师一直建议“良好的数据不利于进一步住宿的前景”剧本，反之亦然；然而，在本周令人失望的ADP数据之后，这一策略并没有出现。许多人认为，市场已经从宣布缩减规模的时间开始——假设是在今年年底或明年初实施之前的第四季度——焦点是裁员的速度和缩减规模的持续时间，而8月份的就业数据不太可能对后两者有意义。</blockquote> While Consensus remains surprisingly bullish, Goldman's forecast was recently slashed to just 500K, about a third lower than consensus of 725K. As the bank explains, \"while the seasonal hurdle is relatively low in August, the monthly pace and cross-section of Big Data employment indicators are consistent with a sizeable drag from the Delta variant.\" Specifically, the bank notes that high-frequency data on the labor marketwere disappointing between the July and August survey weeks&nbsp;with all of the indicators we track consistent with a slowdown from the 943k July pace. Only one of the five measures Goldman tracks indicated an underlying job gain in excess of consensus (Census Small Business Pulse, +0.8mn). On the positive side, Goldman expects the reopening of schools to boost job growth by around 150k in tomorrow’s report.<blockquote>尽管共识仍然出人意料地乐观，但高盛的预测最近被下调至 50 万，比共识的72.5万低约三分之一。正如该银行解释的那样，“虽然 8 月份的季节性障碍相对较低，但大数据就业指标的月度速度和横截面与德尔塔变异毒株的相当大的拖累是一致的。”具体而言，该银行指出，劳动力市场的高频数据在 7 月和 8 月的调查周之间令人失望我们跟踪的所有指标都与 7 月份 943k 的增速相比有所放缓一致。高盛跟踪的五项指标中，只有一项显示潜在就业增长超过了共识（人口普查小企业脉冲，+80万）。从积极的一面来看，高盛在明天的报告中预计，学校的重新开放将推动约 15 万个就业岗位的增长。</blockquote> POLICY FOCUS: Many Fed officials want to see further accumulated evidence that the labor market is progressing towards its 'substantial further progress' threshold for tapering asset purchases before they commit to a timeline for scaling back these purchases, as well as the modalities of how the taper will look. The August jobs data will be eyed within this context, with analysts suggesting that a weak reading will allow the Fed more time to shape its views, while a stronger-than-expected report will add urgency to a process that some Fed officials want wrapped-up by mid-2022. The Fed has been framing the post-pandemic upside in inflation as transitory, although not everyone is convinced.<blockquote>政策重点：许多美联储官员希望看到进一步积累的证据表明，劳动力市场正在朝着缩减资产购买的“实质性进一步进展”门槛迈进，然后再承诺缩减这些购买的时间表，以及缩减规模的方式。8 月份就业数据将在此背景下进行审视，分析师表示，疲软的数据将使美联储有更多时间来塑造其观点，而强于预期的报告将增加一些美联储官员希望在 2022 年中期结束的进程的紧迫性。美联储一直将大流行后的通胀上升描述为暂时的，尽管并非所有人都相信。</blockquote> SLACK:&nbsp;Headline non-farm payrolls are expected to print 728k (prev. 943k) in August; private payrolls are seen at 665k (prev. 703k), and government payrolls are seen at 25k (prev. 27k). The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.2% from 5.4%; many officials do not think that the headline unemployment rate is truly indicative of the health of the labour market, and in recent months, have been monitoring measures like the participation rate (which rose to 61.7% in July from 61.6% in June vs 63.2% pre-pandemic), the U6 measure of underemployment (which fell to 9.2% in July from 9.8% in June vs 7.0% pre-pandemic), and the employment-population ratio (which rose to 58.4% in July from 58.0% in June vs 61.1% pre-pandemic) which all offer better insight into the progress being made in eroding the slack seen since the pandemic.<blockquote>松弛：8 月份非农就业人数预计将达到 72.8 万（之前为 94.3 万）；私人就业人数为66.5万（之前为70.3万），政府就业人数为2.5万（之前为2.7万）。失业率预计将从5.4%降至5.2%；许多官员并不认为总体失业率真正反映了劳动力市场的健康状况，近几个月来，他们一直在监测参与率（从6月份的61.6%上升到7月份的61.7%，而疫情前为63.2%）、U6就业不足指标（从6月份的9.8%下降到7月份的9.2%，而疫情前为7.0%）和就业与人口比率（从6月份的58.0%上升到7月份的58.4%，而疫情前为61.1%）等指标，所有这些都让我们更好地了解了在消除疫情以来的松懈方面取得的进展。</blockquote> TREND RATES:&nbsp;There are still 5.7mln fewer Americans in employment compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020. The Fed does not specifically quantify what 'substantial further progress' means; market participants have argued that, at minimum, it should mean a continuation of current trends, if not an improving trend rate. The short-term trends improved in the July data; the 3-month trend rate stood at 832k in July (vs 607k trend in the 3-months through June); the 6-month trend rate stood at 681k in July (vs the 563k in the 3-months through June); but the 12-month trend rate was 605k in July (vs 670k in the 12-months through June). If the August consensus expectation of 728k was realised, the 3- month and 6-month trend rates would improve again, possibly giving Fed officials evidence of accumulated progress towards the 'substantial further progress' threshold.<blockquote>趋势率：与2020年2月疫情前的水平相比，就业人数仍减少了570万。美联储没有具体量化“实质性进一步进展”的含义；市场参与者认为，至少，这应该意味着当前趋势的延续，如果不是趋势率的提高的话。7月数据短期趋势有所改善；7 月份的 3 个月趋势率为 832k（而截至 6 月份的 3 个月趋势率为 607k）；7 月份的 6 个月趋势利率为 68.1 万（而截至 6 月份的 3 个月为 56.3 万）；但 7 月份的 12 个月趋势率为 60.5 万（而截至 6 月份的 12 个月为 67 万）。如果8月份72.8万的共识预期得以实现，3个月和6个月趋势利率将再次改善，这可能为美联储官员提供朝着“实质性进一步进展”门槛累积进展的证据。</blockquote> WAGES:&nbsp;Average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.4% M/M), though the annualized measure is seen unchanged at 4.0% Y/Y; the average workweek is expected to be unchanged at 34.8hrs. Analysts will be carefully monitoring the average hourly earnings measures; the argument is that higher prices may stoke consumer inflation expectations, as seen in recent consumer confidence reports, and will result in higher compensation as workers demand more cash amid rising prices; analysts say that this would add to evidence that inflation is more persistent than the Fed is currently admitting to.<blockquote>工资：平均时薪环比增长 +0.3%（之前为 +0.4%），但年化指标保持不变，为 4.0%；平均工作周预计将保持在34.8小时不变。分析师将仔细监控平均每小时收益指标；论点是，正如最近的消费者信心报告所示，价格上涨可能会引发消费者通胀预期，并将导致更高的薪酬，因为工人在价格上涨的情况下需要更多现金；分析师表示，这将进一步证明通胀比美联储目前承认的更加持久。</blockquote> ADP:&nbsp;The private payrolls survey by ADP disappointed expectations, showing just 374k jobs were added to the US economy in August; analysts were expecting 613k, following the (also) disappointing 326k it reported in July. ADP attributed the weak August report to the Delta variant; Moody's Analytics said \"the Delta variant appears to have dented the job market recovery,\" but \"job growth remains strong, but well-off the pace of recent months, and job growth remains inextricably tied to the path of the pandemic.\" Fed officials have recently been more sanguine on the impact of Delta, although some officials have argued that the Fed is still capable of tweaking policy if the pandemic once again became more persistent.NOTE:The ADP data uses previous official BLS data within its methodology; that July BLS data was strong relative to expectations, so does allude to a more tepid pace of hiring in August, although desks continue to note the tenuous relationship that the ADP data has in signalling the official BLS data; last month, for instance, the ADP flagged a weaker jobs report, although the official data surprised to the upside.<blockquote>ADP：ADP的私人就业人数调查令人失望，显示8月份美国经济仅新增37.4万个就业岗位；分析师此前预计为 61.3 万人，而 7 月份报告的（同样）令人失望的 32.6 万人。ADP将8月份疲软的报告归因于德尔塔变异毒株；穆迪分析公司表示，“德尔塔变异毒株似乎削弱了就业市场的复苏”，但“就业增长仍然强劲，但低于近几个月的速度，而且就业增长仍然与大流行的路径密不可分。”美联储官员最近对三角洲的影响更加乐观，尽管一些官员认为，如果疫情再次变得更加持久，美联储仍然有能力调整政策。注：ADP数据在其方法中使用以前的官方BLS数据；7 月份 BLS 数据相对于预期强劲，因此确实暗示了 8 月份的招聘步伐更加不温不火，尽管 desks 继续注意到 ADP 数据在传递 BLS 官方数据方面的脆弱关系；例如，上个月，ADP 显示就业报告疲软，尽管官方数据令人惊讶地出现了上涨。</blockquote> INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: Weekly claims data that coincides with the traditional BLS survey window showed claims falling to a post-pandemic low at 349k; the four-week moving average also declined relative to the July survey window, both boding well for the official jobs report. The continuing claims data which coincides with the traditional BLS survey window also fell to a post-pandemic low at 2.862mln (vs 3.296mln heading into the July jobs data). Pantheon Macroeconomics said that the claims numbers are now finally free of the distortions caused by the automakers' retooling shutdowns and the trend is still falling, which suggests that the surge in COVID cases had not yet triggered an increase in layoffs. \"These data, however, tell us nothing about the pace of gross hiring, and it’s entirely possible that firms’&nbsp; first reaction to the Delta wave has been to slow the pace of recruitment, before taking the more difficult decision to let go existing staff,\" Pantheon said, \"still, these data are encouraging.\" Other desks also point out that the claims data only gives insight into workers being laid off (and is essentially corroborated by Challenger's lay-offs data, which fell to the lowest since June 1997), whereas some argue that the labour market weakness seen of late is likely a function of slowing hiring amid the spread of the Delta variant, which is more reflected in surveys.<blockquote>首次申请失业救济人数：与传统的 BLS 调查窗口相吻合的每周申请人数数据显示，申请人数降至大流行后的低点 34.9 万人；相对于7月份的调查窗口，四周移动平均值也有所下降，这都预示着官方就业报告的好兆头。与传统的 BLS 调查窗口相吻合的持续申请人数数据也降至大流行后的低点，为 286.2 万人（而 7 月份就业数据为 329.6 万人）。万神殿宏观经济学表示，索赔人数现在终于摆脱了汽车制造商重组关闭造成的扭曲，而且趋势仍在下降，这表明新冠病例的激增尚未引发裁员增加。“然而，这些数据并没有告诉我们任何关于总招聘速度的信息，企业对三角洲浪潮的第一反应完全有可能是放慢招聘速度，然后再做出更艰难的决定，即解雇现有员工，”潘神殿说，“尽管如此，这些数据还是令人鼓舞的。”其他部门还指出，索赔数据只能深入了解被解雇的工人（并且基本上得到了挑战者的裁员数据的证实，该数据降至1997年6月以来的最低水平），而一些人认为，最近看到的劳动力市场疲软可能是德尔塔变异毒株蔓延期间招聘放缓的结果，这在调查中得到了更多的反映。</blockquote> BUSINESS SURVEYS:&nbsp;The business survey data only offers a partial glimpse of the labour market this month, given that the Services ISM and Markit's Final Services PMI for August are both set for release after the jobs report (NOTE: the flash services data from Markit showed employment falling by 2.5 points to 50.8). The ISM manufacturing report saw its employment sub-index tumble by almost 4 points into contractionary territory at 49.0, with the survey noting that new surges of COVID-19 were adding to pandemic-related issues, like worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to parts shortages, as well as difficulties in filling open positions and overseas supply chain problems. That said, the report also said that companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but despite a contracting index, there were positive signs compared to recent months, partly mitigating the gloom implied by the index itself. Meanwhile, Markit's manufacturing PMI alluded to employment growth easing as firms struggled to retain staff and find suitable candidates for current vacancies.<blockquote>商业调查：商业调查数据仅提供了本月劳动力市场的部分一瞥，因为服务业ISM和Markit的8月份最终服务业PMI都将在就业报告后发布（注：Markit的快速服务业数据显示就业率下降了2.5个百分点至50.8）。ISM 制造业报告显示，其就业分项指数下跌近 4 点，至 49.0 的收缩区间，调查指出，新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 的新激增加剧了与大流行相关的问题，例如工人缺勤、零部件短缺导致的短期停工，以及填补空缺职位的困难和海外供应链问题。尽管如此，报告还表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但尽管指数收缩，但与最近几个月相比，仍有积极迹象，部分缓解了指数本身所暗示的悲观情绪。与此同时，Markit 的制造业 PMI 暗示，随着企业努力留住员工并为当前空缺职位寻找合适的候选人，就业增长放缓。</blockquote> ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:<blockquote>主张报告弱于预期：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Delta variant.&nbsp;Unlike in the first month of the covid resurgence, the Delta variant now appears to be affecting services consumption and the labor market. The revival of the CDC’s mask recommendation on July 27 occurred after the July payroll survey week had ended, which would be consistent with a drag in tomorrow’s report despite the strong gains in the previous one. As shown in the left panel of Exhibit 1, restaurant seatings on Open Table pulled back at the turn of the month, falling to 89% of their 2019 levels during the August survey week, compared to 95% in the July survey week. This would argue for a pause or pullback in US leisure and hospitality employment in tomorrow’s report. Additionally, as shown in the right panel, rising infection rates were associated with weaker employment growth in the state cross-section of the Homebase dataset, consistent with a negative Delta impact on labor demand, labor supply, or both.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6cda55cde31266e2ae8030d47c7fd2\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote><ul><li>德尔塔变异毒株.与新冠疫情复苏的第一个月不同，德尔塔变异毒株现在似乎正在影响服务消费和劳动力市场。疾病预防控制中心于 7 月 27 日恢复佩戴口罩的建议是在 7 月份的工资调查周结束后进行的，尽管上一份报告的涨幅很大，但这与明天报告的拖累是一致的。如附件1的左侧面板所示，开放式餐桌上的餐厅座位在本月初有所回落，在8月调查周期间降至2019年水平的89%，而7月调查周为95%。这将成为明天报告中暂停或缩减美国休闲和酒店业就业的理由。此外，如右图所示，在Homebase数据集的州横截面中，感染率上升与就业增长疲软相关，这与对劳动力需求、劳动力供应或两者的负Delta影响一致。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Big Data.&nbsp;High-frequency data on the labor market were disappointing between the July and August survey weeks (see Exhibit 2), with all of the indicators we track consistent with a slowdown from the 943k July pace. Only one of the five measures we track indicates an underlying job gain in excess of consensus (Census Small Business Pulse, +0.8mn), though we acknowledge that the track record for Big Data indicators during the crisis has been mixed.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0f0682fdbf5a6c87c665c82c2c192e\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"570\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote><ul><li>大数据。7 月至 8 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据令人失望（见图 2），我们跟踪的所有指标都与 7 月 94.3 万的速度相比有所放缓一致。我们跟踪的五项指标中只有一项表明潜在就业增长超过了共识（人口普查小企业脉冲，+80万），尽管我们承认危机期间大数据指标的跟踪记录好坏参半。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>ADP.&nbsp;Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 374k in August, below consensus expectations for a 625k gain. Because the statistical inputs to the ADP model probably boosted their jobs estimate, we believe the underlying ADP sample showed only modest gains in the month.</li> </ul> ARGUING FOR A STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT<blockquote><ul><li>ADP。ADP报告显示，8月份私营部门就业人数增加了37.4万人，低于市场普遍预期的62.5万人。由于 ADP 模型的统计输入可能提高了他们的就业估计，我们认为基础 ADP 样本在本月仅显示适度增长。</li></ul>主张一份强于预期的报告</blockquote> <ul> <li>School reopening.&nbsp;We expect a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools, as many teachers and support staff return for the fall school year (some of whom were not working at the end of the prior one). While a pace of reopening similar to August 2020would contribute nearly 300k jobs (mom sa), the level of education employment is 600khigher a year later, and we believe some janitors and support staff did not return due to capacity restrictions and hybrid teaching models.</li> <li>Wind-down of Top-ups.&nbsp;The expiration of federal benefits in some states has boosted labor supply and job-finding rates. Federal benefits were partially or fully curtailed in half of US states (representing 29% of the outstanding job losses since the start of the pandemic) in June and early July. And encouragingly, continuing claims have continued to decline more quickly in these states (by roughly 150k relative to the trend in all other states in the August payroll month).</li> <li>Seasonality.&nbsp;The August seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 100-200k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools),compared to +0.5mn over the previous four months.</li> <li>Job availability.&nbsp;The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—decreased by 1.3pt to +42.8 in August but remains at a high level. Additionally, job openings increased by 590k to a record high in June, according to the JOLTS report.</li> <li>Jobless claims.&nbsp;Initial jobless claims edged down during the August payroll month,averaging 355k per week vs. 393k in July. Continuing claims also decreased, averaging2,840k in August vs. 3,140k in July. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims remained roughly unchanged between the payroll survey weeks.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0f0682fdbf5a6c87c665c82c2c192e\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"570\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote><ul><li>学校重新开学。我们预计学校重新开放将增加大约15万人，因为许多教师和辅助人员将在秋季学年返回（其中一些人在上一学年结束时没有工作）。虽然类似于2020年8月的重新开放速度将提供近30万个工作岗位（mom sa），但一年后教育就业水平高出60万个，我们认为由于容量限制和混合教学模式，一些清洁工和辅助人员没有返回。</li><li>充值结束。一些州联邦福利的到期提高了劳动力供应和就业率。6 月和 7 月初，美国一半州的联邦福利部分或全部削减（占疫情开始以来未解决失业人数的 29%）。令人鼓舞的是，这些州的持续申请人数继续以更快的速度下降（相对于 8 月份所有其他州的趋势，下降了约 15 万人）。</li><li>季节性。8月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降10-20万，而前四个月为+50万。</li><li>工作可用性。世界大型企业联合会的劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——在8月份下降了1.3个百分点，至+42.8，但仍处于高水平。此外，根据JOLTS报告，6月份职位空缺增加59万个，创历史新高。</li><li>申请失业救济金。8 月份首次申请失业救济人数略有下降，平均每周申请失业救济人数为 35.5 万人，而 7 月份为 39.3 万人。持续申请人数也有所下降，8 月份平均为 2,84 万人，而 7 月份为 3,14 万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔在工资调查周之间大致保持不变。</li></ul></blockquote> NEUTRAL/MIXED FACTORS:<blockquote>中性/混合因素：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Employer surveys.&nbsp;The employment component of the ISM Manufacturing Index fell into contractionary territory (-3.9pt to 49.0). The employment component of our manufacturing survey tracker also decreased (-0.8pt to 58.3), but the employment component of our services survey tracker increased (+0.1pt to 54.9). The employment component of the GSAI increased by 2.8pt to 70.0.</li> <li>Job cuts.&nbsp;Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas decreased by1% in August after decreasing by 13% in July (mom, SA by GS). Layoffs were at the lowest level since 1993.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9338be1c37fd2c7e922fa0e54d4b6aa\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"544\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">REACTION:&nbsp;Citi argues that given still net-long broader USD positions, any miss relative to the consensus may buoy Treasuries (as traders reason that the Fed would remain accommodative for longer), and any decline in yields would likely accelerate the Dollar's recent underperformance. \"A'goldilocks'release that entails a slight miss would be most ideal for risk assets heading into an extended weekend,\" but the bigger picture Citi says is that \"the broader taper narrative will not have long-lasting market implications given broad expectations for a Q4 conclusion; nonetheless, the interim run-up will see taper talk as a persistent albeit fading influence on market moves.\"<blockquote><ul><li>雇主调查。ISM 制造业指数的就业成分跌至收缩区域（-3.9 点至 49.0）。我们的制造业调查跟踪器的就业部分也下降了（-0.8 个百分点至 58.3），但我们的服务业调查跟踪器的就业部分增加了（+0.1 个百分点至 54.9）。GSAI的就业部分上升了2.8个百分点，达到70.0。</li><li>裁员。Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员继 7 月份下降 13% 后，8 月份下降了 1%（mom、SA by GS）。裁员人数处于1993年以来的最低水平。</li></ul>反应：花旗认为，鉴于美元头寸仍然是净多头，任何相对于共识的偏差都可能提振美国国债（因为交易员认为美联储将在更长时间内保持宽松），而收益率的任何下降都可能加速美元近期的表现不佳。“一《金发姑娘》对于进入长周末的风险资产来说，出现轻微失误的发布将是最理想的，”但花旗表示，更大的情况是，“鉴于对第四季度结论的广泛预期，更广泛的缩减规模叙述不会产生持久的市场影响；尽管如此，中期上涨将看到缩减规模的言论对市场走势的影响持续存在，尽管正在减弱。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>August Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Miss, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>8 月份工资单预览：这将是一个失误，问题是有多大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAugust Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Miss, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>8 月份工资单预览：这将是一个失误，问题是有多大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-03 09:04\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary:The consensus looks for the pace of hiring to cool in August, especially after Wednesday's disastrous ADP report, although the short-term trend rates are still likely to improve; if the consensus is correct, it may offer further accumulated evidence that the labor market is making progress towards the Fed's 'substantial' threshold where it will feel comfortable in scaling back its asset purchases, according toNewsquawk..<blockquote>总结：共识预计 8 月份招聘速度将放缓，尤其是在周三灾难性的 ADP 报告发布之后，尽管短期趋势率仍可能改善；toNewsquawk 表示，如果共识是正确的，它可能会提供进一步积累的证据，表明劳动力市场正在朝着美联储的“实质性”门槛取得进展，美联储将放心缩减资产购买规模。</blockquote> Key expectations:<blockquote>主要预期：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Headline non-farm payrolls are expected to print 725k (prev. 943k).</li> <li>The unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.2% to 5.2%, although this figure may not give a true reflection of the labor market;</li> <li>Analysts will be focused on the participation rate (which rose to 61.7% in July from 61.6% in June vs 63.2% pre-pandemic), the U6 measure of underemployment (which fell to 9.2% in July from 9.8% in June vs 7.0% pre-pandemic), and the employment-population ratio (which rose to 58.4% in July from 58.0% in June vs 61.1% pre-pandemic).</li> <li>Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, down from 0.4% in July, and 4.0% Y/Y.</li> </ul> Labor market gauges have been mixed in August:&nbsp;while ADP's private payrolls disappointed expectations (again), the weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims fell to a new post-pandemic low. Other metrics, however, offer a gloomier assessment: the ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys allude to a cooling in labor market conditions, with the Delta variant being cited as a reason for the softer pace of hiring. Given that the jobs data will be framed within the context of the Fed's policy reaction, many analysts have been suggesting a'good data is bad for the prospects of further accommodation'playbook, and vice versa; however, this strategy was not seen in wake of the disappointing ADP data this week. Many argue that the market has already moved on from the timing of the taper announcement – assumed to be in Q4 before implementation late this year or early next – and focus is on the pace of the reductions and the duration of the taper, and the August jobs data is not likely to inform the latter two meaningfully.<blockquote><ul><li>总体非农就业人数预计将达到 72.5 万（之前为 94.3 万）。</li><li>失业率预计将下降0.2%至5.2%，尽管这一数字可能无法真实反映劳动力市场；</li><li>分析师将关注参与率（从 6 月份的 61.6% 升至 7 月份的 61.7%，而大流行前的 63.2%）、U6 就业不足指标（从 6 月份的 9.8% 降至 7 月份的 9.2%，而大流行前的 7.0%）和就业人口比率（从 6 月份的 58.0% 升至 7 月份的 58.4%，而大流行前的 61.1%）。</li><li>平均时薪预计环比增长 0.3%，低于 7 月份的 0.4%，同比增长 4.0%。</li></ul>八月份劳动力市场指标好坏参半：尽管 ADP 的私人就业人数（再次）低于预期，但每周首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请人数降至大流行后的新低。然而，其他指标提供了一个更悲观的评估：ISM 和 Markit 制造业调查暗示劳动力市场状况降温，德尔塔变异毒株被认为是招聘步伐放缓的原因。鉴于就业数据将在美联储政策反应的背景下制定，许多分析师一直建议“良好的数据不利于进一步住宿的前景”剧本，反之亦然；然而，在本周令人失望的ADP数据之后，这一策略并没有出现。许多人认为，市场已经从宣布缩减规模的时间开始——假设是在今年年底或明年初实施之前的第四季度——焦点是裁员的速度和缩减规模的持续时间，而8月份的就业数据不太可能对后两者有意义。</blockquote> While Consensus remains surprisingly bullish, Goldman's forecast was recently slashed to just 500K, about a third lower than consensus of 725K. As the bank explains, \"while the seasonal hurdle is relatively low in August, the monthly pace and cross-section of Big Data employment indicators are consistent with a sizeable drag from the Delta variant.\" Specifically, the bank notes that high-frequency data on the labor marketwere disappointing between the July and August survey weeks&nbsp;with all of the indicators we track consistent with a slowdown from the 943k July pace. Only one of the five measures Goldman tracks indicated an underlying job gain in excess of consensus (Census Small Business Pulse, +0.8mn). On the positive side, Goldman expects the reopening of schools to boost job growth by around 150k in tomorrow’s report.<blockquote>尽管共识仍然出人意料地乐观，但高盛的预测最近被下调至 50 万，比共识的72.5万低约三分之一。正如该银行解释的那样，“虽然 8 月份的季节性障碍相对较低，但大数据就业指标的月度速度和横截面与德尔塔变异毒株的相当大的拖累是一致的。”具体而言，该银行指出，劳动力市场的高频数据在 7 月和 8 月的调查周之间令人失望我们跟踪的所有指标都与 7 月份 943k 的增速相比有所放缓一致。高盛跟踪的五项指标中，只有一项显示潜在就业增长超过了共识（人口普查小企业脉冲，+80万）。从积极的一面来看，高盛在明天的报告中预计，学校的重新开放将推动约 15 万个就业岗位的增长。</blockquote> POLICY FOCUS: Many Fed officials want to see further accumulated evidence that the labor market is progressing towards its 'substantial further progress' threshold for tapering asset purchases before they commit to a timeline for scaling back these purchases, as well as the modalities of how the taper will look. The August jobs data will be eyed within this context, with analysts suggesting that a weak reading will allow the Fed more time to shape its views, while a stronger-than-expected report will add urgency to a process that some Fed officials want wrapped-up by mid-2022. The Fed has been framing the post-pandemic upside in inflation as transitory, although not everyone is convinced.<blockquote>政策重点：许多美联储官员希望看到进一步积累的证据表明，劳动力市场正在朝着缩减资产购买的“实质性进一步进展”门槛迈进，然后再承诺缩减这些购买的时间表，以及缩减规模的方式。8 月份就业数据将在此背景下进行审视，分析师表示，疲软的数据将使美联储有更多时间来塑造其观点，而强于预期的报告将增加一些美联储官员希望在 2022 年中期结束的进程的紧迫性。美联储一直将大流行后的通胀上升描述为暂时的，尽管并非所有人都相信。</blockquote> SLACK:&nbsp;Headline non-farm payrolls are expected to print 728k (prev. 943k) in August; private payrolls are seen at 665k (prev. 703k), and government payrolls are seen at 25k (prev. 27k). The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.2% from 5.4%; many officials do not think that the headline unemployment rate is truly indicative of the health of the labour market, and in recent months, have been monitoring measures like the participation rate (which rose to 61.7% in July from 61.6% in June vs 63.2% pre-pandemic), the U6 measure of underemployment (which fell to 9.2% in July from 9.8% in June vs 7.0% pre-pandemic), and the employment-population ratio (which rose to 58.4% in July from 58.0% in June vs 61.1% pre-pandemic) which all offer better insight into the progress being made in eroding the slack seen since the pandemic.<blockquote>松弛：8 月份非农就业人数预计将达到 72.8 万（之前为 94.3 万）；私人就业人数为66.5万（之前为70.3万），政府就业人数为2.5万（之前为2.7万）。失业率预计将从5.4%降至5.2%；许多官员并不认为总体失业率真正反映了劳动力市场的健康状况，近几个月来，他们一直在监测参与率（从6月份的61.6%上升到7月份的61.7%，而疫情前为63.2%）、U6就业不足指标（从6月份的9.8%下降到7月份的9.2%，而疫情前为7.0%）和就业与人口比率（从6月份的58.0%上升到7月份的58.4%，而疫情前为61.1%）等指标，所有这些都让我们更好地了解了在消除疫情以来的松懈方面取得的进展。</blockquote> TREND RATES:&nbsp;There are still 5.7mln fewer Americans in employment compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020. The Fed does not specifically quantify what 'substantial further progress' means; market participants have argued that, at minimum, it should mean a continuation of current trends, if not an improving trend rate. The short-term trends improved in the July data; the 3-month trend rate stood at 832k in July (vs 607k trend in the 3-months through June); the 6-month trend rate stood at 681k in July (vs the 563k in the 3-months through June); but the 12-month trend rate was 605k in July (vs 670k in the 12-months through June). If the August consensus expectation of 728k was realised, the 3- month and 6-month trend rates would improve again, possibly giving Fed officials evidence of accumulated progress towards the 'substantial further progress' threshold.<blockquote>趋势率：与2020年2月疫情前的水平相比，就业人数仍减少了570万。美联储没有具体量化“实质性进一步进展”的含义；市场参与者认为，至少，这应该意味着当前趋势的延续，如果不是趋势率的提高的话。7月数据短期趋势有所改善；7 月份的 3 个月趋势率为 832k（而截至 6 月份的 3 个月趋势率为 607k）；7 月份的 6 个月趋势利率为 68.1 万（而截至 6 月份的 3 个月为 56.3 万）；但 7 月份的 12 个月趋势率为 60.5 万（而截至 6 月份的 12 个月为 67 万）。如果8月份72.8万的共识预期得以实现，3个月和6个月趋势利率将再次改善，这可能为美联储官员提供朝着“实质性进一步进展”门槛累积进展的证据。</blockquote> WAGES:&nbsp;Average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.4% M/M), though the annualized measure is seen unchanged at 4.0% Y/Y; the average workweek is expected to be unchanged at 34.8hrs. Analysts will be carefully monitoring the average hourly earnings measures; the argument is that higher prices may stoke consumer inflation expectations, as seen in recent consumer confidence reports, and will result in higher compensation as workers demand more cash amid rising prices; analysts say that this would add to evidence that inflation is more persistent than the Fed is currently admitting to.<blockquote>工资：平均时薪环比增长 +0.3%（之前为 +0.4%），但年化指标保持不变，为 4.0%；平均工作周预计将保持在34.8小时不变。分析师将仔细监控平均每小时收益指标；论点是，正如最近的消费者信心报告所示，价格上涨可能会引发消费者通胀预期，并将导致更高的薪酬，因为工人在价格上涨的情况下需要更多现金；分析师表示，这将进一步证明通胀比美联储目前承认的更加持久。</blockquote> ADP:&nbsp;The private payrolls survey by ADP disappointed expectations, showing just 374k jobs were added to the US economy in August; analysts were expecting 613k, following the (also) disappointing 326k it reported in July. ADP attributed the weak August report to the Delta variant; Moody's Analytics said \"the Delta variant appears to have dented the job market recovery,\" but \"job growth remains strong, but well-off the pace of recent months, and job growth remains inextricably tied to the path of the pandemic.\" Fed officials have recently been more sanguine on the impact of Delta, although some officials have argued that the Fed is still capable of tweaking policy if the pandemic once again became more persistent.NOTE:The ADP data uses previous official BLS data within its methodology; that July BLS data was strong relative to expectations, so does allude to a more tepid pace of hiring in August, although desks continue to note the tenuous relationship that the ADP data has in signalling the official BLS data; last month, for instance, the ADP flagged a weaker jobs report, although the official data surprised to the upside.<blockquote>ADP：ADP的私人就业人数调查令人失望，显示8月份美国经济仅新增37.4万个就业岗位；分析师此前预计为 61.3 万人，而 7 月份报告的（同样）令人失望的 32.6 万人。ADP将8月份疲软的报告归因于德尔塔变异毒株；穆迪分析公司表示，“德尔塔变异毒株似乎削弱了就业市场的复苏”，但“就业增长仍然强劲，但低于近几个月的速度，而且就业增长仍然与大流行的路径密不可分。”美联储官员最近对三角洲的影响更加乐观，尽管一些官员认为，如果疫情再次变得更加持久，美联储仍然有能力调整政策。注：ADP数据在其方法中使用以前的官方BLS数据；7 月份 BLS 数据相对于预期强劲，因此确实暗示了 8 月份的招聘步伐更加不温不火，尽管 desks 继续注意到 ADP 数据在传递 BLS 官方数据方面的脆弱关系；例如，上个月，ADP 显示就业报告疲软，尽管官方数据令人惊讶地出现了上涨。</blockquote> INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: Weekly claims data that coincides with the traditional BLS survey window showed claims falling to a post-pandemic low at 349k; the four-week moving average also declined relative to the July survey window, both boding well for the official jobs report. The continuing claims data which coincides with the traditional BLS survey window also fell to a post-pandemic low at 2.862mln (vs 3.296mln heading into the July jobs data). Pantheon Macroeconomics said that the claims numbers are now finally free of the distortions caused by the automakers' retooling shutdowns and the trend is still falling, which suggests that the surge in COVID cases had not yet triggered an increase in layoffs. \"These data, however, tell us nothing about the pace of gross hiring, and it’s entirely possible that firms’&nbsp; first reaction to the Delta wave has been to slow the pace of recruitment, before taking the more difficult decision to let go existing staff,\" Pantheon said, \"still, these data are encouraging.\" Other desks also point out that the claims data only gives insight into workers being laid off (and is essentially corroborated by Challenger's lay-offs data, which fell to the lowest since June 1997), whereas some argue that the labour market weakness seen of late is likely a function of slowing hiring amid the spread of the Delta variant, which is more reflected in surveys.<blockquote>首次申请失业救济人数：与传统的 BLS 调查窗口相吻合的每周申请人数数据显示，申请人数降至大流行后的低点 34.9 万人；相对于7月份的调查窗口，四周移动平均值也有所下降，这都预示着官方就业报告的好兆头。与传统的 BLS 调查窗口相吻合的持续申请人数数据也降至大流行后的低点，为 286.2 万人（而 7 月份就业数据为 329.6 万人）。万神殿宏观经济学表示，索赔人数现在终于摆脱了汽车制造商重组关闭造成的扭曲，而且趋势仍在下降，这表明新冠病例的激增尚未引发裁员增加。“然而，这些数据并没有告诉我们任何关于总招聘速度的信息，企业对三角洲浪潮的第一反应完全有可能是放慢招聘速度，然后再做出更艰难的决定，即解雇现有员工，”潘神殿说，“尽管如此，这些数据还是令人鼓舞的。”其他部门还指出，索赔数据只能深入了解被解雇的工人（并且基本上得到了挑战者的裁员数据的证实，该数据降至1997年6月以来的最低水平），而一些人认为，最近看到的劳动力市场疲软可能是德尔塔变异毒株蔓延期间招聘放缓的结果，这在调查中得到了更多的反映。</blockquote> BUSINESS SURVEYS:&nbsp;The business survey data only offers a partial glimpse of the labour market this month, given that the Services ISM and Markit's Final Services PMI for August are both set for release after the jobs report (NOTE: the flash services data from Markit showed employment falling by 2.5 points to 50.8). The ISM manufacturing report saw its employment sub-index tumble by almost 4 points into contractionary territory at 49.0, with the survey noting that new surges of COVID-19 were adding to pandemic-related issues, like worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to parts shortages, as well as difficulties in filling open positions and overseas supply chain problems. That said, the report also said that companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but despite a contracting index, there were positive signs compared to recent months, partly mitigating the gloom implied by the index itself. Meanwhile, Markit's manufacturing PMI alluded to employment growth easing as firms struggled to retain staff and find suitable candidates for current vacancies.<blockquote>商业调查：商业调查数据仅提供了本月劳动力市场的部分一瞥，因为服务业ISM和Markit的8月份最终服务业PMI都将在就业报告后发布（注：Markit的快速服务业数据显示就业率下降了2.5个百分点至50.8）。ISM 制造业报告显示，其就业分项指数下跌近 4 点，至 49.0 的收缩区间，调查指出，新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 的新激增加剧了与大流行相关的问题，例如工人缺勤、零部件短缺导致的短期停工，以及填补空缺职位的困难和海外供应链问题。尽管如此，报告还表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但尽管指数收缩，但与最近几个月相比，仍有积极迹象，部分缓解了指数本身所暗示的悲观情绪。与此同时，Markit 的制造业 PMI 暗示，随着企业努力留住员工并为当前空缺职位寻找合适的候选人，就业增长放缓。</blockquote> ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:<blockquote>主张报告弱于预期：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Delta variant.&nbsp;Unlike in the first month of the covid resurgence, the Delta variant now appears to be affecting services consumption and the labor market. The revival of the CDC’s mask recommendation on July 27 occurred after the July payroll survey week had ended, which would be consistent with a drag in tomorrow’s report despite the strong gains in the previous one. As shown in the left panel of Exhibit 1, restaurant seatings on Open Table pulled back at the turn of the month, falling to 89% of their 2019 levels during the August survey week, compared to 95% in the July survey week. This would argue for a pause or pullback in US leisure and hospitality employment in tomorrow’s report. Additionally, as shown in the right panel, rising infection rates were associated with weaker employment growth in the state cross-section of the Homebase dataset, consistent with a negative Delta impact on labor demand, labor supply, or both.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6cda55cde31266e2ae8030d47c7fd2\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote><ul><li>德尔塔变异毒株.与新冠疫情复苏的第一个月不同，德尔塔变异毒株现在似乎正在影响服务消费和劳动力市场。疾病预防控制中心于 7 月 27 日恢复佩戴口罩的建议是在 7 月份的工资调查周结束后进行的，尽管上一份报告的涨幅很大，但这与明天报告的拖累是一致的。如附件1的左侧面板所示，开放式餐桌上的餐厅座位在本月初有所回落，在8月调查周期间降至2019年水平的89%，而7月调查周为95%。这将成为明天报告中暂停或缩减美国休闲和酒店业就业的理由。此外，如右图所示，在Homebase数据集的州横截面中，感染率上升与就业增长疲软相关，这与对劳动力需求、劳动力供应或两者的负Delta影响一致。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Big Data.&nbsp;High-frequency data on the labor market were disappointing between the July and August survey weeks (see Exhibit 2), with all of the indicators we track consistent with a slowdown from the 943k July pace. Only one of the five measures we track indicates an underlying job gain in excess of consensus (Census Small Business Pulse, +0.8mn), though we acknowledge that the track record for Big Data indicators during the crisis has been mixed.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0f0682fdbf5a6c87c665c82c2c192e\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"570\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote><ul><li>大数据。7 月至 8 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据令人失望（见图 2），我们跟踪的所有指标都与 7 月 94.3 万的速度相比有所放缓一致。我们跟踪的五项指标中只有一项表明潜在就业增长超过了共识（人口普查小企业脉冲，+80万），尽管我们承认危机期间大数据指标的跟踪记录好坏参半。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>ADP.&nbsp;Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 374k in August, below consensus expectations for a 625k gain. Because the statistical inputs to the ADP model probably boosted their jobs estimate, we believe the underlying ADP sample showed only modest gains in the month.</li> </ul> ARGUING FOR A STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT<blockquote><ul><li>ADP。ADP报告显示，8月份私营部门就业人数增加了37.4万人，低于市场普遍预期的62.5万人。由于 ADP 模型的统计输入可能提高了他们的就业估计，我们认为基础 ADP 样本在本月仅显示适度增长。</li></ul>主张一份强于预期的报告</blockquote> <ul> <li>School reopening.&nbsp;We expect a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools, as many teachers and support staff return for the fall school year (some of whom were not working at the end of the prior one). While a pace of reopening similar to August 2020would contribute nearly 300k jobs (mom sa), the level of education employment is 600khigher a year later, and we believe some janitors and support staff did not return due to capacity restrictions and hybrid teaching models.</li> <li>Wind-down of Top-ups.&nbsp;The expiration of federal benefits in some states has boosted labor supply and job-finding rates. Federal benefits were partially or fully curtailed in half of US states (representing 29% of the outstanding job losses since the start of the pandemic) in June and early July. And encouragingly, continuing claims have continued to decline more quickly in these states (by roughly 150k relative to the trend in all other states in the August payroll month).</li> <li>Seasonality.&nbsp;The August seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 100-200k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools),compared to +0.5mn over the previous four months.</li> <li>Job availability.&nbsp;The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—decreased by 1.3pt to +42.8 in August but remains at a high level. Additionally, job openings increased by 590k to a record high in June, according to the JOLTS report.</li> <li>Jobless claims.&nbsp;Initial jobless claims edged down during the August payroll month,averaging 355k per week vs. 393k in July. Continuing claims also decreased, averaging2,840k in August vs. 3,140k in July. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims remained roughly unchanged between the payroll survey weeks.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0f0682fdbf5a6c87c665c82c2c192e\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"570\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote><ul><li>学校重新开学。我们预计学校重新开放将增加大约15万人，因为许多教师和辅助人员将在秋季学年返回（其中一些人在上一学年结束时没有工作）。虽然类似于2020年8月的重新开放速度将提供近30万个工作岗位（mom sa），但一年后教育就业水平高出60万个，我们认为由于容量限制和混合教学模式，一些清洁工和辅助人员没有返回。</li><li>充值结束。一些州联邦福利的到期提高了劳动力供应和就业率。6 月和 7 月初，美国一半州的联邦福利部分或全部削减（占疫情开始以来未解决失业人数的 29%）。令人鼓舞的是，这些州的持续申请人数继续以更快的速度下降（相对于 8 月份所有其他州的趋势，下降了约 15 万人）。</li><li>季节性。8月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降10-20万，而前四个月为+50万。</li><li>工作可用性。世界大型企业联合会的劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——在8月份下降了1.3个百分点，至+42.8，但仍处于高水平。此外，根据JOLTS报告，6月份职位空缺增加59万个，创历史新高。</li><li>申请失业救济金。8 月份首次申请失业救济人数略有下降，平均每周申请失业救济人数为 35.5 万人，而 7 月份为 39.3 万人。持续申请人数也有所下降，8 月份平均为 2,84 万人，而 7 月份为 3,14 万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔在工资调查周之间大致保持不变。</li></ul></blockquote> NEUTRAL/MIXED FACTORS:<blockquote>中性/混合因素：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Employer surveys.&nbsp;The employment component of the ISM Manufacturing Index fell into contractionary territory (-3.9pt to 49.0). The employment component of our manufacturing survey tracker also decreased (-0.8pt to 58.3), but the employment component of our services survey tracker increased (+0.1pt to 54.9). The employment component of the GSAI increased by 2.8pt to 70.0.</li> <li>Job cuts.&nbsp;Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas decreased by1% in August after decreasing by 13% in July (mom, SA by GS). Layoffs were at the lowest level since 1993.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9338be1c37fd2c7e922fa0e54d4b6aa\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"544\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">REACTION:&nbsp;Citi argues that given still net-long broader USD positions, any miss relative to the consensus may buoy Treasuries (as traders reason that the Fed would remain accommodative for longer), and any decline in yields would likely accelerate the Dollar's recent underperformance. \"A'goldilocks'release that entails a slight miss would be most ideal for risk assets heading into an extended weekend,\" but the bigger picture Citi says is that \"the broader taper narrative will not have long-lasting market implications given broad expectations for a Q4 conclusion; nonetheless, the interim run-up will see taper talk as a persistent albeit fading influence on market moves.\"<blockquote><ul><li>雇主调查。ISM 制造业指数的就业成分跌至收缩区域（-3.9 点至 49.0）。我们的制造业调查跟踪器的就业部分也下降了（-0.8 个百分点至 58.3），但我们的服务业调查跟踪器的就业部分增加了（+0.1 个百分点至 54.9）。GSAI的就业部分上升了2.8个百分点，达到70.0。</li><li>裁员。Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员继 7 月份下降 13% 后，8 月份下降了 1%（mom、SA by GS）。裁员人数处于1993年以来的最低水平。</li></ul>反应：花旗认为，鉴于美元头寸仍然是净多头，任何相对于共识的偏差都可能提振美国国债（因为交易员认为美联储将在更长时间内保持宽松），而收益率的任何下降都可能加速美元近期的表现不佳。“一《金发姑娘》对于进入长周末的风险资产来说，出现轻微失误的发布将是最理想的，”但花旗表示，更大的情况是，“鉴于对第四季度结论的广泛预期，更广泛的缩减规模叙述不会产生持久的市场影响；尽管如此，中期上涨将看到缩减规模的言论对市场走势的影响持续存在，尽管正在减弱。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/august-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-miss-question-how-big\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/august-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-miss-question-how-big","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109595556","content_text":"Summary:The consensus looks for the pace of hiring to cool in August, especially after Wednesday's disastrous ADP report, although the short-term trend rates are still likely to improve; if the consensus is correct, it may offer further accumulated evidence that the labor market is making progress towards the Fed's 'substantial' threshold where it will feel comfortable in scaling back its asset purchases, according toNewsquawk..\nKey expectations:\n\nHeadline non-farm payrolls are expected to print 725k (prev. 943k).\nThe unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.2% to 5.2%, although this figure may not give a true reflection of the labor market;\nAnalysts will be focused on the participation rate (which rose to 61.7% in July from 61.6% in June vs 63.2% pre-pandemic), the U6 measure of underemployment (which fell to 9.2% in July from 9.8% in June vs 7.0% pre-pandemic), and the employment-population ratio (which rose to 58.4% in July from 58.0% in June vs 61.1% pre-pandemic).\nAverage hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, down from 0.4% in July, and 4.0% Y/Y.\n\nLabor market gauges have been mixed in August: while ADP's private payrolls disappointed expectations (again), the weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims fell to a new post-pandemic low. Other metrics, however, offer a gloomier assessment: the ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys allude to a cooling in labor market conditions, with the Delta variant being cited as a reason for the softer pace of hiring. Given that the jobs data will be framed within the context of the Fed's policy reaction, many analysts have been suggesting a'good data is bad for the prospects of further accommodation'playbook, and vice versa; however, this strategy was not seen in wake of the disappointing ADP data this week. Many argue that the market has already moved on from the timing of the taper announcement – assumed to be in Q4 before implementation late this year or early next – and focus is on the pace of the reductions and the duration of the taper, and the August jobs data is not likely to inform the latter two meaningfully.\nWhile Consensus remains surprisingly bullish, Goldman's forecast was recently slashed to just 500K, about a third lower than consensus of 725K. As the bank explains, \"while the seasonal hurdle is relatively low in August, the monthly pace and cross-section of Big Data employment indicators are consistent with a sizeable drag from the Delta variant.\" Specifically, the bank notes that high-frequency data on the labor marketwere disappointing between the July and August survey weeks with all of the indicators we track consistent with a slowdown from the 943k July pace. Only one of the five measures Goldman tracks indicated an underlying job gain in excess of consensus (Census Small Business Pulse, +0.8mn). On the positive side, Goldman expects the reopening of schools to boost job growth by around 150k in tomorrow’s report.\nPOLICY FOCUS: Many Fed officials want to see further accumulated evidence that the labor market is progressing towards its 'substantial further progress' threshold for tapering asset purchases before they commit to a timeline for scaling back these purchases, as well as the modalities of how the taper will look. The August jobs data will be eyed within this context, with analysts suggesting that a weak reading will allow the Fed more time to shape its views, while a stronger-than-expected report will add urgency to a process that some Fed officials want wrapped-up by mid-2022. The Fed has been framing the post-pandemic upside in inflation as transitory, although not everyone is convinced.\nSLACK: Headline non-farm payrolls are expected to print 728k (prev. 943k) in August; private payrolls are seen at 665k (prev. 703k), and government payrolls are seen at 25k (prev. 27k). The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.2% from 5.4%; many officials do not think that the headline unemployment rate is truly indicative of the health of the labour market, and in recent months, have been monitoring measures like the participation rate (which rose to 61.7% in July from 61.6% in June vs 63.2% pre-pandemic), the U6 measure of underemployment (which fell to 9.2% in July from 9.8% in June vs 7.0% pre-pandemic), and the employment-population ratio (which rose to 58.4% in July from 58.0% in June vs 61.1% pre-pandemic) which all offer better insight into the progress being made in eroding the slack seen since the pandemic.\nTREND RATES: There are still 5.7mln fewer Americans in employment compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020. The Fed does not specifically quantify what 'substantial further progress' means; market participants have argued that, at minimum, it should mean a continuation of current trends, if not an improving trend rate. The short-term trends improved in the July data; the 3-month trend rate stood at 832k in July (vs 607k trend in the 3-months through June); the 6-month trend rate stood at 681k in July (vs the 563k in the 3-months through June); but the 12-month trend rate was 605k in July (vs 670k in the 12-months through June). If the August consensus expectation of 728k was realised, the 3- month and 6-month trend rates would improve again, possibly giving Fed officials evidence of accumulated progress towards the 'substantial further progress' threshold.\nWAGES: Average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.4% M/M), though the annualized measure is seen unchanged at 4.0% Y/Y; the average workweek is expected to be unchanged at 34.8hrs. Analysts will be carefully monitoring the average hourly earnings measures; the argument is that higher prices may stoke consumer inflation expectations, as seen in recent consumer confidence reports, and will result in higher compensation as workers demand more cash amid rising prices; analysts say that this would add to evidence that inflation is more persistent than the Fed is currently admitting to.\nADP: The private payrolls survey by ADP disappointed expectations, showing just 374k jobs were added to the US economy in August; analysts were expecting 613k, following the (also) disappointing 326k it reported in July. ADP attributed the weak August report to the Delta variant; Moody's Analytics said \"the Delta variant appears to have dented the job market recovery,\" but \"job growth remains strong, but well-off the pace of recent months, and job growth remains inextricably tied to the path of the pandemic.\" Fed officials have recently been more sanguine on the impact of Delta, although some officials have argued that the Fed is still capable of tweaking policy if the pandemic once again became more persistent.NOTE:The ADP data uses previous official BLS data within its methodology; that July BLS data was strong relative to expectations, so does allude to a more tepid pace of hiring in August, although desks continue to note the tenuous relationship that the ADP data has in signalling the official BLS data; last month, for instance, the ADP flagged a weaker jobs report, although the official data surprised to the upside.\nINITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: Weekly claims data that coincides with the traditional BLS survey window showed claims falling to a post-pandemic low at 349k; the four-week moving average also declined relative to the July survey window, both boding well for the official jobs report. The continuing claims data which coincides with the traditional BLS survey window also fell to a post-pandemic low at 2.862mln (vs 3.296mln heading into the July jobs data). Pantheon Macroeconomics said that the claims numbers are now finally free of the distortions caused by the automakers' retooling shutdowns and the trend is still falling, which suggests that the surge in COVID cases had not yet triggered an increase in layoffs. \"These data, however, tell us nothing about the pace of gross hiring, and it’s entirely possible that firms’  first reaction to the Delta wave has been to slow the pace of recruitment, before taking the more difficult decision to let go existing staff,\" Pantheon said, \"still, these data are encouraging.\" Other desks also point out that the claims data only gives insight into workers being laid off (and is essentially corroborated by Challenger's lay-offs data, which fell to the lowest since June 1997), whereas some argue that the labour market weakness seen of late is likely a function of slowing hiring amid the spread of the Delta variant, which is more reflected in surveys.\nBUSINESS SURVEYS: The business survey data only offers a partial glimpse of the labour market this month, given that the Services ISM and Markit's Final Services PMI for August are both set for release after the jobs report (NOTE: the flash services data from Markit showed employment falling by 2.5 points to 50.8). The ISM manufacturing report saw its employment sub-index tumble by almost 4 points into contractionary territory at 49.0, with the survey noting that new surges of COVID-19 were adding to pandemic-related issues, like worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to parts shortages, as well as difficulties in filling open positions and overseas supply chain problems. That said, the report also said that companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but despite a contracting index, there were positive signs compared to recent months, partly mitigating the gloom implied by the index itself. Meanwhile, Markit's manufacturing PMI alluded to employment growth easing as firms struggled to retain staff and find suitable candidates for current vacancies.\nARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nDelta variant. Unlike in the first month of the covid resurgence, the Delta variant now appears to be affecting services consumption and the labor market. The revival of the CDC’s mask recommendation on July 27 occurred after the July payroll survey week had ended, which would be consistent with a drag in tomorrow’s report despite the strong gains in the previous one. As shown in the left panel of Exhibit 1, restaurant seatings on Open Table pulled back at the turn of the month, falling to 89% of their 2019 levels during the August survey week, compared to 95% in the July survey week. This would argue for a pause or pullback in US leisure and hospitality employment in tomorrow’s report. Additionally, as shown in the right panel, rising infection rates were associated with weaker employment growth in the state cross-section of the Homebase dataset, consistent with a negative Delta impact on labor demand, labor supply, or both.\n\n\n\nBig Data. High-frequency data on the labor market were disappointing between the July and August survey weeks (see Exhibit 2), with all of the indicators we track consistent with a slowdown from the 943k July pace. Only one of the five measures we track indicates an underlying job gain in excess of consensus (Census Small Business Pulse, +0.8mn), though we acknowledge that the track record for Big Data indicators during the crisis has been mixed.\n\n\n\nADP. Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 374k in August, below consensus expectations for a 625k gain. Because the statistical inputs to the ADP model probably boosted their jobs estimate, we believe the underlying ADP sample showed only modest gains in the month.\n\nARGUING FOR A STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT\n\nSchool reopening. We expect a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools, as many teachers and support staff return for the fall school year (some of whom were not working at the end of the prior one). While a pace of reopening similar to August 2020would contribute nearly 300k jobs (mom sa), the level of education employment is 600khigher a year later, and we believe some janitors and support staff did not return due to capacity restrictions and hybrid teaching models.\nWind-down of Top-ups. The expiration of federal benefits in some states has boosted labor supply and job-finding rates. Federal benefits were partially or fully curtailed in half of US states (representing 29% of the outstanding job losses since the start of the pandemic) in June and early July. And encouragingly, continuing claims have continued to decline more quickly in these states (by roughly 150k relative to the trend in all other states in the August payroll month).\nSeasonality. The August seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 100-200k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools),compared to +0.5mn over the previous four months.\nJob availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—decreased by 1.3pt to +42.8 in August but remains at a high level. Additionally, job openings increased by 590k to a record high in June, according to the JOLTS report.\nJobless claims. Initial jobless claims edged down during the August payroll month,averaging 355k per week vs. 393k in July. Continuing claims also decreased, averaging2,840k in August vs. 3,140k in July. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims remained roughly unchanged between the payroll survey weeks.\n\n\nNEUTRAL/MIXED FACTORS:\n\nEmployer surveys. The employment component of the ISM Manufacturing Index fell into contractionary territory (-3.9pt to 49.0). The employment component of our manufacturing survey tracker also decreased (-0.8pt to 58.3), but the employment component of our services survey tracker increased (+0.1pt to 54.9). The employment component of the GSAI increased by 2.8pt to 70.0.\nJob cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas decreased by1% in August after decreasing by 13% in July (mom, SA by GS). Layoffs were at the lowest level since 1993.\n\nREACTION: Citi argues that given still net-long broader USD positions, any miss relative to the consensus may buoy Treasuries (as traders reason that the Fed would remain accommodative for longer), and any decline in yields would likely accelerate the Dollar's recent underperformance. \"A'goldilocks'release that entails a slight miss would be most ideal for risk assets heading into an extended weekend,\" but the bigger picture Citi says is that \"the broader taper narrative will not have long-lasting market implications given broad expectations for a Q4 conclusion; nonetheless, the interim run-up will see taper talk as a persistent albeit fading influence on market moves.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/815937307"}