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2021-09-07

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Morgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories<blockquote>摩根士丹利：大宗商品发现自己处于 2021 年最重要故事的中心</blockquote>

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2021-09-07
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":817204433,"tweetId":"817204433","gmtCreate":1630965777822,"gmtModify":1631891649785,"author":{"id":3571129545109571,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorId":3571129545109571,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":23,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Please like and comment. Thx</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Please like and comment. Thx</body></html>","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817204433","repostId":1183504703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183504703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630932846,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183504703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories<blockquote>摩根士丹利：大宗商品发现自己处于 2021 年最重要故事的中心</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183504703","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Commodities Tie the Year Together\n2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline i","content":"Commodities Tie the Year Together<blockquote>大宗商品将这一年联系在一起</blockquote> 2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline indices imply. It’s been a year where ‘ESG’ and ‘Quant’ remain key structural trends in the investment community. And it’s been a year that has seen an almost constant, running debate over the outlook for growth and inflation.&nbsp;Commodities, it just so happens, find themselves at the center of all these stories.<blockquote>对于许多投资者来说，2021 年比主要指数所暗示的要艰难. 在这一年里，'ESG'和'量化'仍然是投资界的关键结构性趋势。在这一年里，关于增长和通胀前景的争论几乎一直在进行。大宗商品恰好是所有这些故事的中心。</blockquote> Let’s start with the challenging year.&nbsp;The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that 2021 has been a walk in the park, with global equities returning 16% through September 1, with historically low volatility.<blockquote>让我们从充满挑战的一年开始。这位不经意的观察者认为 2021 年是一次漫步，截至 9 月 1 日，全球股市回报率为 16%，波动性处于历史低位，这是情有可原的。</blockquote> But under the surface, it’s been hard. It’s been hard in a ‘good’ market like US equities, where major rotations have led to sharp swings in relative performance (US small caps rose +20% through mid-March, and are lower since). And it’s been hard in global equities, where MSCI China has fallen 26% since February 14, while MSCI Europe is up 14% over the same period. Many active managers are lagging their benchmarks.<blockquote>但在表面之下，这很艰难. 在美国股市这样一个 “良好 ”的市场中，情况一直很艰难，因为美国股市的重大轮动导致了相对表现的急剧波动（美国小盘股在 3 月中旬上涨了 20%，此后一直在走低）。全球股市表现不佳，MSCI 中国指数自 2 月 14 日以来已下跌 26%，而 MSCI 欧洲指数同期上涨 14%。许多活跃的经理落后于他们的基准。</blockquote> Yet quantitatively, it may be an even harder year in rates and FX. We run a&nbsp;Cross-Asset Systematic Trading tool, or CAST, which aims to identify what factors matter for cross-asset performance, and systematically invest based on how those factors look at a given moment. CAST asks “if I do what has historically worked in the market, given current information, what should I do?”.<blockquote>然而，从数量上看，这可能是利率和外汇更加艰难的一年。我们运行跨资产系统交易工具（CAST），旨在确定哪些因素对跨资产表现至关重要，并根据这些因素在特定时刻的表现进行系统性投资。演员阵容问道：“如果我做的是市场上历史上行之有效的事情，根据目前的信息，我该怎么做？”</blockquote> Year-to-date, following these historical patterns has led to poorer outcomes in interest rates and FX compared with all other asset classes.&nbsp;Where have historical patterns done better? Commodities. A lot better.<blockquote>今年迄今为止，与所有其他资产类别相比，遵循这些历史模式导致利率和外汇表现更差。历史模式在哪里做得更好？商品。好多了。</blockquote> Investing systematically based on attractive factors (carry, momentum, valuation, supportive fundamentals) has been working better in commodities than any other asset class (credit is second). Why? We have a few theories:<blockquote>基于有吸引力的因素（利差、动量、估值、支持性基本面）进行系统性投资，在大宗商品中的效果比任何其他资产类别都要好（信贷次之）。为什么？我们有几个理论：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Natural inefficiencies in the commodity market create risk premium.<blockquote><ul><li>商品市场的自然低效率会产生风险溢价。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>The tendency of commodities to move in longer cycles means that momentum is more effective.<blockquote><li>大宗商品变动周期更长的趋势意味着动能更有效。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Central banks aren’t intervening in these markets (and investor flows have been more muted), allowing more ‘normal’ dynamics to play out.<blockquote><li>各国央行没有干预这些市场（投资者流动也更加平静），让更多 “正常 ”的动态得以发挥。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Given the prominence of quant and systematic investing as themes in investment management, this is pretty important. To the extent one can, go where these types of strategies are working.<blockquote>鉴于量化投资和系统投资作为投资管理主题的突出地位，这一点非常重要。在可能的情况下，去这些类型的策略起作用的地方。</blockquote> Commodities also tie into a second big investment theme, ESG.&nbsp;The underlying reality and seriousness of climate change remains constant, and indeed, looks even more pressing following the&nbsp;release from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while ESG-linked equities have seen pronounced swings in 2021, commodity markets have delivered a far more consistent message.<blockquote>大宗商品还与第二个大投资主题ESG息息相关。气候变化的潜在现实和严重性仍然不变，事实上，在政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布报告后，气候变化看起来更加紧迫。然而，尽管与 ESG 相关的股票在 2021 年出现了明显波动，但大宗商品市场传递了更加一致的信息。</blockquote> The price for&nbsp;EU Carbon emissions, for example (MO1 Comdty), has risen 88% year-to-date. My colleague Robert Pulleyn has been bullish on the belief that a higher price on emissions is essential to meet the EU’s climate goals. Near term, he sees the risk of a decline given recent gains, before prices resume their upward trend toward €102/ton by 2027 (see&nbsp;Utilities: Carbon: Softness Risk Ahead? Before Upwards March Resumes, August 9, 2021).<blockquote>例如，欧盟碳排放价格（MO1 Comdty）今年迄今已上涨 88%。我的同事罗伯特-普林（Robert Pulleyn）一直认为，提高排放价格对于实现欧盟的气候目标至关重要。短期内，鉴于最近的涨幅，他认为在价格到 2027 年恢复上升趋势至 102 欧元/吨之前，存在下跌风险（参见公用事业：碳：未来的疲软风险？在 2021 年 8 月 9 日 3 月恢复上涨之前）。</blockquote> Wait, you might say. If commodity markets are so focused on the realities of climate change, why are oil prices higher this year, not lower? Again, we think the market is actually pretty rational. Shareholder pressure and the threat of future EV adoption is causing oil producers to dramatically reduce their capex plans, a development that my colleague Martijn Rats believes will help limit supply and keep prices elevated (see&nbsp;Podcast | Thoughts on the Market: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil, September 2, 2021).<blockquote>等等，你可能会说。如果大宗商品市场如此关注气候变化的现实，为什么今年的油价更高而不是更低？同样，我们认为市场实际上是相当理性的。股东压力和未来电动汽车采用的威胁正在导致石油生产商大幅减少其资本支出计划，我的同事 Martijn Rats 认为这一发展将有助于限制供应并保持价格上涨（参见播客 | 市场思考：挪威的奇怪案例、电动汽车和石油，2021 年 9 月 2 日）。</blockquote> ESG and systematic investing are major industry themes. 2021 being harder than the headline indices suggest is something we’re all aware of. But the biggest story of the year is&nbsp;the debate around growth and inflation. What, it seems fair to say, do commodities have to say about that?<blockquote>ESG和系统化投资是主要的行业主题。我们都知道，2021 年的情况比头条指数所显示的要艰难。但今年最大的新闻是围绕增长和通货膨胀的辩论。公平地说，大宗商品对此有什么看法？</blockquote> While commodity prices are often synonymous with inflation, our forecasts suggest they’ll now play a smaller role. The biggest downside risk to prices is likely to come from core goods (where demand has been well-above trend), while the biggest risk to the upside is likely to come from rental growth (which is a large share of the basket, and strong). Nonetheless,recent stabilization in commodity prices should reinforce the transitory nature of headline inflation, which our economists expect to moderate into mid-2022.<blockquote>虽然大宗商品价格往往是通货膨胀的代名词，但我们的预测表明，大宗商品价格现在将发挥更小的作用。价格最大的下行风险可能来自核心商品（需求远高于趋势），而最大的上行风险可能来自租金增长（租金增长在篮子中占很大份额，而且强劲）。然而，近期大宗商品价格的稳定应该会强化总体通胀的暂时性，我们的经济学家预计总体通胀将在 2022 年中期放缓.</blockquote> On the growth debate, however, commodities are front and center.Our economists see a 3Q slowdown in both the&nbsp;US&nbsp;and&nbsp;China(but not Europe, which is a story for another time). Copper prices and the CRB RIND index, two key harbingers of cyclical strength, remain high, consistent with a view that this economic weakness will be temporary.<blockquote>然而，在增长辩论中，大宗商品是前沿和中心。我们的经济学家预计美国和中国第三季度经济将放缓（但不是欧洲，这是另一个时间的故事）。铜价和 CRB RIND 指数是周期性走强的两个关键先兆，它们仍然处于高位，这与这种经济疲软将是暂时的观点一致。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addcaef8407fdc8cf9f4efb87956bf0d\" tg-width=\"1258\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> We’ll be watching the resilience of these indicators as August data, reported in September, may look poor, and test the market's resolve.<blockquote>我们将关注这些指标的弹性，因为 9 月份公布的 8 月份数据可能看起来很差，并考验市场的决心。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories<blockquote>摩根士丹利：大宗商品发现自己处于 2021 年最重要故事的中心</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories<blockquote>摩根士丹利：大宗商品发现自己处于 2021 年最重要故事的中心</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-06 20:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nCommodities Tie the Year Together<blockquote>大宗商品将这一年联系在一起</blockquote> 2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline indices imply. It’s been a year where ‘ESG’ and ‘Quant’ remain key structural trends in the investment community. And it’s been a year that has seen an almost constant, running debate over the outlook for growth and inflation.&nbsp;Commodities, it just so happens, find themselves at the center of all these stories.<blockquote>对于许多投资者来说，2021 年比主要指数所暗示的要艰难. 在这一年里，'ESG'和'量化'仍然是投资界的关键结构性趋势。在这一年里，关于增长和通胀前景的争论几乎一直在进行。大宗商品恰好是所有这些故事的中心。</blockquote> Let’s start with the challenging year.&nbsp;The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that 2021 has been a walk in the park, with global equities returning 16% through September 1, with historically low volatility.<blockquote>让我们从充满挑战的一年开始。这位不经意的观察者认为 2021 年是一次漫步，截至 9 月 1 日，全球股市回报率为 16%，波动性处于历史低位，这是情有可原的。</blockquote> But under the surface, it’s been hard. It’s been hard in a ‘good’ market like US equities, where major rotations have led to sharp swings in relative performance (US small caps rose +20% through mid-March, and are lower since). And it’s been hard in global equities, where MSCI China has fallen 26% since February 14, while MSCI Europe is up 14% over the same period. Many active managers are lagging their benchmarks.<blockquote>但在表面之下，这很艰难. 在美国股市这样一个 “良好 ”的市场中，情况一直很艰难，因为美国股市的重大轮动导致了相对表现的急剧波动（美国小盘股在 3 月中旬上涨了 20%，此后一直在走低）。全球股市表现不佳，MSCI 中国指数自 2 月 14 日以来已下跌 26%，而 MSCI 欧洲指数同期上涨 14%。许多活跃的经理落后于他们的基准。</blockquote> Yet quantitatively, it may be an even harder year in rates and FX. We run a&nbsp;Cross-Asset Systematic Trading tool, or CAST, which aims to identify what factors matter for cross-asset performance, and systematically invest based on how those factors look at a given moment. CAST asks “if I do what has historically worked in the market, given current information, what should I do?”.<blockquote>然而，从数量上看，这可能是利率和外汇更加艰难的一年。我们运行跨资产系统交易工具（CAST），旨在确定哪些因素对跨资产表现至关重要，并根据这些因素在特定时刻的表现进行系统性投资。演员阵容问道：“如果我做的是市场上历史上行之有效的事情，根据目前的信息，我该怎么做？”</blockquote> Year-to-date, following these historical patterns has led to poorer outcomes in interest rates and FX compared with all other asset classes.&nbsp;Where have historical patterns done better? Commodities. A lot better.<blockquote>今年迄今为止，与所有其他资产类别相比，遵循这些历史模式导致利率和外汇表现更差。历史模式在哪里做得更好？商品。好多了。</blockquote> Investing systematically based on attractive factors (carry, momentum, valuation, supportive fundamentals) has been working better in commodities than any other asset class (credit is second). Why? We have a few theories:<blockquote>基于有吸引力的因素（利差、动量、估值、支持性基本面）进行系统性投资，在大宗商品中的效果比任何其他资产类别都要好（信贷次之）。为什么？我们有几个理论：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Natural inefficiencies in the commodity market create risk premium.<blockquote><ul><li>商品市场的自然低效率会产生风险溢价。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>The tendency of commodities to move in longer cycles means that momentum is more effective.<blockquote><li>大宗商品变动周期更长的趋势意味着动能更有效。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Central banks aren’t intervening in these markets (and investor flows have been more muted), allowing more ‘normal’ dynamics to play out.<blockquote><li>各国央行没有干预这些市场（投资者流动也更加平静），让更多 “正常 ”的动态得以发挥。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Given the prominence of quant and systematic investing as themes in investment management, this is pretty important. To the extent one can, go where these types of strategies are working.<blockquote>鉴于量化投资和系统投资作为投资管理主题的突出地位，这一点非常重要。在可能的情况下，去这些类型的策略起作用的地方。</blockquote> Commodities also tie into a second big investment theme, ESG.&nbsp;The underlying reality and seriousness of climate change remains constant, and indeed, looks even more pressing following the&nbsp;release from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while ESG-linked equities have seen pronounced swings in 2021, commodity markets have delivered a far more consistent message.<blockquote>大宗商品还与第二个大投资主题ESG息息相关。气候变化的潜在现实和严重性仍然不变，事实上，在政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布报告后，气候变化看起来更加紧迫。然而，尽管与 ESG 相关的股票在 2021 年出现了明显波动，但大宗商品市场传递了更加一致的信息。</blockquote> The price for&nbsp;EU Carbon emissions, for example (MO1 Comdty), has risen 88% year-to-date. My colleague Robert Pulleyn has been bullish on the belief that a higher price on emissions is essential to meet the EU’s climate goals. Near term, he sees the risk of a decline given recent gains, before prices resume their upward trend toward €102/ton by 2027 (see&nbsp;Utilities: Carbon: Softness Risk Ahead? Before Upwards March Resumes, August 9, 2021).<blockquote>例如，欧盟碳排放价格（MO1 Comdty）今年迄今已上涨 88%。我的同事罗伯特-普林（Robert Pulleyn）一直认为，提高排放价格对于实现欧盟的气候目标至关重要。短期内，鉴于最近的涨幅，他认为在价格到 2027 年恢复上升趋势至 102 欧元/吨之前，存在下跌风险（参见公用事业：碳：未来的疲软风险？在 2021 年 8 月 9 日 3 月恢复上涨之前）。</blockquote> Wait, you might say. If commodity markets are so focused on the realities of climate change, why are oil prices higher this year, not lower? Again, we think the market is actually pretty rational. Shareholder pressure and the threat of future EV adoption is causing oil producers to dramatically reduce their capex plans, a development that my colleague Martijn Rats believes will help limit supply and keep prices elevated (see&nbsp;Podcast | Thoughts on the Market: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil, September 2, 2021).<blockquote>等等，你可能会说。如果大宗商品市场如此关注气候变化的现实，为什么今年的油价更高而不是更低？同样，我们认为市场实际上是相当理性的。股东压力和未来电动汽车采用的威胁正在导致石油生产商大幅减少其资本支出计划，我的同事 Martijn Rats 认为这一发展将有助于限制供应并保持价格上涨（参见播客 | 市场思考：挪威的奇怪案例、电动汽车和石油，2021 年 9 月 2 日）。</blockquote> ESG and systematic investing are major industry themes. 2021 being harder than the headline indices suggest is something we’re all aware of. But the biggest story of the year is&nbsp;the debate around growth and inflation. What, it seems fair to say, do commodities have to say about that?<blockquote>ESG和系统化投资是主要的行业主题。我们都知道，2021 年的情况比头条指数所显示的要艰难。但今年最大的新闻是围绕增长和通货膨胀的辩论。公平地说，大宗商品对此有什么看法？</blockquote> While commodity prices are often synonymous with inflation, our forecasts suggest they’ll now play a smaller role. The biggest downside risk to prices is likely to come from core goods (where demand has been well-above trend), while the biggest risk to the upside is likely to come from rental growth (which is a large share of the basket, and strong). Nonetheless,recent stabilization in commodity prices should reinforce the transitory nature of headline inflation, which our economists expect to moderate into mid-2022.<blockquote>虽然大宗商品价格往往是通货膨胀的代名词，但我们的预测表明，大宗商品价格现在将发挥更小的作用。价格最大的下行风险可能来自核心商品（需求远高于趋势），而最大的上行风险可能来自租金增长（租金增长在篮子中占很大份额，而且强劲）。然而，近期大宗商品价格的稳定应该会强化总体通胀的暂时性，我们的经济学家预计总体通胀将在 2022 年中期放缓.</blockquote> On the growth debate, however, commodities are front and center.Our economists see a 3Q slowdown in both the&nbsp;US&nbsp;and&nbsp;China(but not Europe, which is a story for another time). Copper prices and the CRB RIND index, two key harbingers of cyclical strength, remain high, consistent with a view that this economic weakness will be temporary.<blockquote>然而，在增长辩论中，大宗商品是前沿和中心。我们的经济学家预计美国和中国第三季度经济将放缓（但不是欧洲，这是另一个时间的故事）。铜价和 CRB RIND 指数是周期性走强的两个关键先兆，它们仍然处于高位，这与这种经济疲软将是暂时的观点一致。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addcaef8407fdc8cf9f4efb87956bf0d\" tg-width=\"1258\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> We’ll be watching the resilience of these indicators as August data, reported in September, may look poor, and test the market's resolve.<blockquote>我们将关注这些指标的弹性，因为 9 月份公布的 8 月份数据可能看起来很差，并考验市场的决心。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-commodities-find-themselves-center-all-2021s-most-important-stories\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-commodities-find-themselves-center-all-2021s-most-important-stories","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183504703","content_text":"Commodities Tie the Year Together\n2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline indices imply. It’s been a year where ‘ESG’ and ‘Quant’ remain key structural trends in the investment community. And it’s been a year that has seen an almost constant, running debate over the outlook for growth and inflation. Commodities, it just so happens, find themselves at the center of all these stories.\nLet’s start with the challenging year. The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that 2021 has been a walk in the park, with global equities returning 16% through September 1, with historically low volatility.\nBut under the surface, it’s been hard. It’s been hard in a ‘good’ market like US equities, where major rotations have led to sharp swings in relative performance (US small caps rose +20% through mid-March, and are lower since). And it’s been hard in global equities, where MSCI China has fallen 26% since February 14, while MSCI Europe is up 14% over the same period. Many active managers are lagging their benchmarks.\nYet quantitatively, it may be an even harder year in rates and FX. We run a Cross-Asset Systematic Trading tool, or CAST, which aims to identify what factors matter for cross-asset performance, and systematically invest based on how those factors look at a given moment. CAST asks “if I do what has historically worked in the market, given current information, what should I do?”.\nYear-to-date, following these historical patterns has led to poorer outcomes in interest rates and FX compared with all other asset classes. Where have historical patterns done better? Commodities. A lot better.\nInvesting systematically based on attractive factors (carry, momentum, valuation, supportive fundamentals) has been working better in commodities than any other asset class (credit is second). Why? We have a few theories:\n\nNatural inefficiencies in the commodity market create risk premium.\nThe tendency of commodities to move in longer cycles means that momentum is more effective.\nCentral banks aren’t intervening in these markets (and investor flows have been more muted), allowing more ‘normal’ dynamics to play out.\n\nGiven the prominence of quant and systematic investing as themes in investment management, this is pretty important. To the extent one can, go where these types of strategies are working.\nCommodities also tie into a second big investment theme, ESG. The underlying reality and seriousness of climate change remains constant, and indeed, looks even more pressing following the release from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while ESG-linked equities have seen pronounced swings in 2021, commodity markets have delivered a far more consistent message.\nThe price for EU Carbon emissions, for example (MO1 Comdty), has risen 88% year-to-date. My colleague Robert Pulleyn has been bullish on the belief that a higher price on emissions is essential to meet the EU’s climate goals. Near term, he sees the risk of a decline given recent gains, before prices resume their upward trend toward €102/ton by 2027 (see Utilities: Carbon: Softness Risk Ahead? Before Upwards March Resumes, August 9, 2021).\nWait, you might say. If commodity markets are so focused on the realities of climate change, why are oil prices higher this year, not lower? Again, we think the market is actually pretty rational. Shareholder pressure and the threat of future EV adoption is causing oil producers to dramatically reduce their capex plans, a development that my colleague Martijn Rats believes will help limit supply and keep prices elevated (see Podcast | Thoughts on the Market: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil, September 2, 2021).\nESG and systematic investing are major industry themes. 2021 being harder than the headline indices suggest is something we’re all aware of. But the biggest story of the year is the debate around growth and inflation. What, it seems fair to say, do commodities have to say about that?\nWhile commodity prices are often synonymous with inflation, our forecasts suggest they’ll now play a smaller role. The biggest downside risk to prices is likely to come from core goods (where demand has been well-above trend), while the biggest risk to the upside is likely to come from rental growth (which is a large share of the basket, and strong). Nonetheless,recent stabilization in commodity prices should reinforce the transitory nature of headline inflation, which our economists expect to moderate into mid-2022.\nOn the growth debate, however, commodities are front and center.Our economists see a 3Q slowdown in both the US and China(but not Europe, which is a story for another time). Copper prices and the CRB RIND index, two key harbingers of cyclical strength, remain high, consistent with a view that this economic weakness will be temporary.\n\nWe’ll be watching the resilience of these indicators as August data, reported in September, may look poor, and test the market's resolve.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2907,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":24,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5772897,"commentId":"5772897","gmtCreate":1630965857687,"gmtModify":1630965857687,"authorId":3586198471249922,"author":{"id":3586198471249922,"idStr":"3586198471249922","authorId":3586198471249922,"name":"EmmaS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fa8b7739afa8f029d077d18c6201ab","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":817204433,"objectIdStr":"817204433","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[强]","text":"[强]","html":"[强]","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/817204433"}