小小爆米花
2021-09-07
Standby ammo
C3.ai: Brace Yourself For Landing, A Buy Point Is Coming Soon<blockquote>C3.ai：做好登陆准备，买点即将到来</blockquote>
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Such was the case with C3.ai (AI), one of the hottest IPOs of the past year that immediately saw its stock price quadruple. C3.ai is an enterprise AI platform - that is, a technology base that lets its clients build and deploy artificial intelligence applications with preset tools. Investors had wide hopes for this company given the open-ended use cases this type of product can offer - but so far, C3.ai hasn't delivered the kind of growth rates that investors typically come to invest with these startup-like public equities.</p><p><blockquote>迟早，万有引力定律也会降临到软件股身上：上来的必然会下来。C3.ai (AI) 就是这种情况，它是去年最热门的 IPO 之一，股价立即翻了两番。C3.ai是一个企业人工智能平台——也就是说，一个技术基础，让其客户使用预设的工具构建和部署人工智能应用程序。鉴于此类产品可以提供的开放式用例，投资者对这家公司寄予厚望，但到目前为止，C3.ai 尚未实现投资者通常投资这些初创公司式公共股票的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> C3.ai hit an all-time high of ~$170 this February, representing a quadrupling from its IPO price of $42. Since then, the stock has crumbled and given back ~70% of its value. In early September, the company released fiscal Q1 results, which were a cause for further disappointment in the stock that caused a further ~5% dip.</p><p><blockquote>C3.ai 今年 2 月创下约 170 美元的历史新高，比其 42 美元的 IPO 价格翻了两番。此后，该股暴跌并返还了约 70% 的价值。9月初，该公司发布了第一财季业绩，这导致该股进一步失望，导致该股进一步下跌约5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72921aed6d4198ec90336315baf0b271\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>For now, the bearish thesis has won out</b></p><p><blockquote><b>目前，看跌论点已经胜出</b></blockquote></p><p> I had been bearish on C3.ai since its IPO. I've consistently called out a number of flaws with the company, including:</p><p><blockquote>自 C3.ai 首次公开募股以来，我一直看跌它。我一直指出该公司的许多缺陷，包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Huge valuation for relatively normal growth rates.</b>C3.ai, at its peaks, was trading at >40x forward revenue despite a ~30% y/y revenue growth rate - which is a massive valuation premium for what is considered a \"normal\" growth rate in enterprise software.</li> <li><b>Customer concentration.</b>C3.ai only has a handful of customers, and its largest customer Baker Hughes, the oil services giant, is also a reseller of its product. Oil and gas companies overall represent about a third of its revenue.</li> <li><b>Massive losses.</b>C3.ai loses nearly a dollar, in GAAP terms, for every dollar of revenue it generates.</li> </ul> The only reason investors clung onto this stock was for its thematic buzz (AI, needless to say, is one of the hottest areas in software) as well as their confidence in C3.ai's founder and CEO Tom Siebel, who founded and sold Siebel Systems to Oracle (ORCL) and has many deep-seated relationships in Silicon Valley.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>相对正常的增长率的巨大估值。</b>尽管收入同比增长率约为 30%，但 C3.ai 在巅峰时期的交易价格为远期收入的 40 倍以上——这对于企业软件的“正常”增长率来说是一个巨大的估值溢价。</li><li><b>客户集中度。</b>C3.ai的客户屈指可数，其最大客户石油服务巨头贝克休斯也是其产品的经销商。石油和天然气公司总体上约占其收入的三分之一。</li><li><b>巨大损失。</b>按照 GAAP 标准，C3.ai 每产生 1 美元收入，就会损失近 1 美元。</li></ul>投资者坚持持有这只股票的唯一原因是它的主题热度（不用说，人工智能是软件领域最热门的领域之一）以及他们对 C3.ai 创始人兼首席执行官 Tom Siebel 的信心，他创立了 Siebel Systems 并将其出售给甲骨文 (ORCL)，并在硅谷拥有许多深厚的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>But rest assured that a buy-the-dip opportunity may be emerging</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但请放心，逢低买入机会可能正在出现</b></blockquote></p><p> Yet as my readers know, I'm a big believer in buy-the-dip. I prefer buying into companies when sentiment is weak and waiting for the rebound, rather than risking a purchase at market tops (this is especially true as the post-pandemic bull market continues to notch new, lofty highs with each trading day). In my view, the C3.ai slump is close to breaking.</p><p><blockquote>然而，正如我的读者所知，我非常相信逢低买入。我更喜欢在市场情绪疲软并等待反弹时买入公司，而不是在市场顶部冒险买入（尤其是在大流行后的牛市每个交易日都在继续创下新的高点的情况下）。在我看来，C3.ai 的暴跌已接近崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> Valuation is the key here, as C3.ai's correction has no longer left the company egregiously overvalued. At current share prices near $51, C3.ai has a market cap of $5.23 billion. After we net off the $1.10 billion of cash on C3.ai's balance sheet (for a company of this size, C3.ai's cash pile is quite enormous, which is one reason to be comfortable with this stock), the company's resulting<b>enterprise value is $4.14 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>估值是这里的关键，因为 C3.ai 的修正不再导致该公司被严重高估。按目前接近 51 美元的股价计算，C3.ai 的市值为 52.3 亿美元。在我们从 C3.ai 的资产负债表上扣除 11 亿美元现金后（对于这样规模的公司来说，C3.ai 的现金池相当巨大，这也是对这只股票感到满意的原因之一），该公司的结果<b>企业价值为41.4亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For the current fiscal year high ends in April 2022, meanwhile, C3.ai has guided to a revenue range of $243-$247 million, representing 33-35% y/y growth. It's going to need to stretch to get there: Q1 growth clocked in at only 29% y/y, but the company is guiding to acceleration in Q2 to 35-40% y/y growth.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，对于 2022 年 4 月结束的本财年高端，C3.ai 的收入范围为 2.43-2.47 亿美元，同比增长 33-35%。要实现这一目标，还需要付出努力：第一季度的同比增长率仅为 29%，但该公司预计第二季度的同比增长率将加速至 35-40%。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. C3.ai guidance update</p><p><blockquote>图1。C3.ai指南更新</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c07c9c3368340d8ddbb12dad77bcbe51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: C3.ai Q1 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：C3.ai 第一季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If we take the midpoint of C3.ai's FY22 guidance range at face value, the company's valuation sits at<b>16.9x EV/FY22 revenue.</b>That's hardly a cheap multiple, but it's far cheaper than what C3.ai was trading at earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们按面值取 C3.ai 2022 财年指导范围的中点，则该公司的估值为<b>16.9 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b>这并不是一个便宜的倍数，但比 C3.ai 今年早些时候的交易价格便宜得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The bottom line here: I'm<b>upgrading my view on C3.ai to neutral,</b>and putting the stock on my watch list. I'm interested in dipping my toes into this stock if it reaches a<b>$41 price level,</b>representing<b>12.5x EV/FY22 revenue.</b>Given the fierceness of C3.ai's recent correction, we may hit those levels within the month.</p><p><blockquote>底线是：我是<b>将我对C3.ai的看法升级为中立，</b>把股票列入我的观察名单。如果这只股票达到<b>41美元的价格水平，</b>代表<b>12.5 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b>鉴于 C3.ai 最近调整的剧烈程度，我们可能会在一个月内达到这些水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 download</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Q1下载</b></blockquote></p><p> C3.ai's Q1 update wasn't perfect, but it wasn't all bad, either. Take a look at the earnings summary in the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>C3.ai 的第一季度更新并不完美，但也不全是坏事。看看下图中的收益摘要：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. C3.ai Q1 results</p><p><blockquote>图2。C3.ai Q1业绩</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd17939012426be90aef9075eb37faf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: C3.ai Q1 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：C3.ai 第一季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> C3.ai grew its revenue at a 29% y/y clip to $52.4 million in revenue, which was only a minor beat versus Wall Street's expectations for $51.3 million (+27% y/y) in revenue. At the same time, C3.ai saw a minor acceleration as well from 26% y/y growth in Q4, which was a plus.</p><p><blockquote>C3.ai 的收入同比增长 29%，达到 5240 万美元，仅略高于华尔街预期的 5130 万美元（同比增长 27%）。与此同时，C3.ai 也较第四季度 26% 的同比增长略有加速，这是一个利好。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some more good news: C3.ai's enterprise AI customer base hit 98 in the quarter, up 85% y/y. One of my biggest concerns with C3.ai is the fact that it still has only a fledgling customer base; at the time of its IPO, the company's ~50 customers could hardly be construed as a true enterprise software giant in the making. Yet C3.ai's clientele does skew large, and its progress in adding new customers is a promising sign.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一些好消息：C3.ai 的企业人工智能客户群本季度达到 98 个，同比增长 85%。我对C3.ai最大的担忧之一是它仍然只有一个羽翼未丰的客户群；在IPO时，该公司的约50名客户很难被解释为一个真正的企业软件巨头。然而，C3.ai 的客户群确实存在很大的偏差，其在增加新客户方面的进展是一个充满希望的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Another positive development: C3.ai has entered into both a product and go-to-market partnership with Google Cloud (GOOG). Building on top of an existing commercial agreement with Microsoft Azure (MSFT), this partnership will give C3.ai even more expansion potential into Google Cloud's universe of customers, as well as gain access to Google Cloud's sales force. The Azure partnership has yielded $200 million of closed business to date, with $350 million more in the pipeline: we hope the Google Cloud partnership can yield similar fruitful results.</p><p><blockquote>另一个积极的进展：C3.ai 已与 Google Cloud (GOOG) 建立产品和上市合作伙伴关系。在与微软 Azure (MSFT) 现有商业协议的基础上，此次合作伙伴关系将使 C3.ai 在 Google Cloud 的客户领域拥有更大的扩张潜力，并获得 Google Cloud 的销售队伍。迄今为止，Azure合作伙伴关系已经产生了2亿美元的已完成业务，还有3.5亿美元正在筹备中：我们希望谷歌云合作伙伴关系能够产生类似的丰硕成果。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 3. C3.ai/Google Cloud partnership</p><p><blockquote>图3。C3.ai/谷歌云合作伙伴关系</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6e19183efc667b0bb2dd771234bfc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: C3.ai Q1 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：C3.ai 第一季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Going forward, management expects C3.ai to lead with some smaller, lower-priced, and high-value products like C3.ai CRM. These purpose-built applications are more plug-and-play and give a chance for C3.ai to \"land\" more customers and seed the \"expand\" opportunity for later. Per CEO Tom Siebel's prepared remarks on the Q1 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，管理层预计 C3.ai 将以 C3.ai CRM 等更小、价格更低、价值更高的产品引领潮流。这些专门构建的应用程序更加即插即用，为 C3.ai 提供了一个“获得”更多客户的机会，并为以后的“扩展”机会播下了种子。根据首席执行官 Tom Siebel 在第一季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话：</blockquote></p><p> As we have previously discussed, historically, our business has been characterized by quarter-to-quarter lumpiness due to the substantial size of our average order value. Now as application sales become an increasingly large part of our revenue mix, roughly 50% of our subscriptions last quarter in Q1 accrued from application software. We are increasingly offering lower priced, high-value products like C3 AI CRM and Ex Machina. And as we've discussed, we've been diversifying our distribution model to complement enterprise selling with telesales, distributors, market partners and direct marketplace selling.\" However, C3.ai's investments into sales and marketing have continued to burn holes through margins, which is a chief investor concern that has been a primary catalyst in dragging the share price down. Due to a massive increase in sales and marketing costs to 58% of revenue (25 points more than 33% in the year-ago Q2), C3.ai's pro forma operating margins hit a -42% mark in Q1, 40 points worse than the year-ago quarter. This was buffeted as well by a 12-point increase in R&D expense as a percentage of revenue and a 4-point increase in general and administrative expenses, and only partially offset by a three-point bump in pro forma gross margins.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前所讨论的，从历史上看，由于我们的平均订单价值很大，我们的业务的特点是季度与季度之间的波动。现在，随着应用程序销售成为我们收入组合中越来越大的一部分，我们第一季度最后一个季度大约50%的订阅来自应用软件。我们越来越多地提供价格更低、价值更高的产品，如C3 AI CRM和Ex Machina。正如我们所讨论的，我们一直在使分销模式多样化，通过电话销售、分销商、市场合作伙伴和直接市场销售来补充企业销售。”然而，C3.ai 在销售和营销方面的投资继续侵蚀利润率，这是投资者的主要担忧，也是拖累股价的主要催化剂。由于销售和营销成本大幅增加至收入的 58%（比去年同期第二季度的 33% 高出 25 个百分点），C3.ai 第一季度的预计营业利润率达到-42%，比去年同期下降 40 个百分点。这也受到研发费用占收入百分比增加 12 个百分点以及一般和管理费用增加 4 个百分点的影响，但预计毛利率增长 3 个百分点仅部分抵消了这一影响。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 4. C3.ai operating margin trends</p><p><blockquote>图4。C3.ai 营业利润率趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeb7285944ea24037260f852641bfdeb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: C3.ai Q1 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：C3.ai 第一季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> C3.ai remains a grab bag of pros and cons, in my mind. On the positive front, C3.ai possesses a broad technology base, and its recent go-to-market developments (leading with smaller products like CRM to bag more customers, and a new partnership with Google Cloud) are promising growth levers. At the same time, C3.ai's relatively limited market penetration and heavy losses are worrying.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，C3.ai 仍然是一个有利有弊的大杂烩。从积极的方面来看，C3.ai 拥有广泛的技术基础，其最近的上市发展（以 CRM 等小型产品领先以吸引更多客户，以及与 Google Cloud 的新合作伙伴关系）是有希望的增长杠杆。与此同时，C3.ai相对有限的市场渗透率和沉重的亏损令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At the right price, I'm a buyer. I'm waiting for a further ~20% dip in C3.ai to the low $40s before diving in, but this stock is now a firm watch list item for me.</p><p><blockquote>只要价格合适，我就是买家。我正在等待 C3.ai 进一步下跌约 20% 至 40 美元的低点，然后再潜入，但这只股票现在对我来说是一个坚定的观察清单项目。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>C3.ai: Brace Yourself For Landing, A Buy Point Is Coming Soon<blockquote>C3.ai：做好登陆准备，买点即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nC3.ai: Brace Yourself For Landing, A Buy Point Is Coming Soon<blockquote>C3.ai：做好登陆准备，买点即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 07:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>C3.ai has lost 70% of its value relative to all-time highs near $170 that it notched immediately after its IPO.</li> <li>The stock's downfall is a reflection of only middling results, and its relatively tiny traction within its market.</li> <li>C3.ai's customer concentration, especially on Baker Hughes, still remains a consistent problem.</li> <li>Still, C3.ai is approaching a buyable valuation as it hits a mid-teens multiple of this year's revenue.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/001ddb8ffe2cd26356ee59422c781b50\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>相对于 IPO 后立即创下的近 170 美元的历史高点，C3.ai 的价值已下跌 70%。</li><li>该股的下跌仅反映了其业绩平平，并且在市场上的吸引力相对较小。</li><li>C3.ai 的客户集中度，尤其是贝克休斯，仍然是一个持续存在的问题。</li><li>尽管如此，C3.ai 的估值仍接近可购买的估值，因为它达到了今年收入的十几倍左右。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>hapabapa/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Sooner or later, the law of gravity comes for software stocks too: what comes up, must come down. Such was the case with C3.ai (AI), one of the hottest IPOs of the past year that immediately saw its stock price quadruple. C3.ai is an enterprise AI platform - that is, a technology base that lets its clients build and deploy artificial intelligence applications with preset tools. Investors had wide hopes for this company given the open-ended use cases this type of product can offer - but so far, C3.ai hasn't delivered the kind of growth rates that investors typically come to invest with these startup-like public equities.</p><p><blockquote>迟早，万有引力定律也会降临到软件股身上：上来的必然会下来。C3.ai (AI) 就是这种情况，它是去年最热门的 IPO 之一，股价立即翻了两番。C3.ai是一个企业人工智能平台——也就是说，一个技术基础，让其客户使用预设的工具构建和部署人工智能应用程序。鉴于此类产品可以提供的开放式用例，投资者对这家公司寄予厚望，但到目前为止，C3.ai 尚未实现投资者通常投资这些初创公司式公共股票的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> C3.ai hit an all-time high of ~$170 this February, representing a quadrupling from its IPO price of $42. Since then, the stock has crumbled and given back ~70% of its value. In early September, the company released fiscal Q1 results, which were a cause for further disappointment in the stock that caused a further ~5% dip.</p><p><blockquote>C3.ai 今年 2 月创下约 170 美元的历史新高，比其 42 美元的 IPO 价格翻了两番。此后，该股暴跌并返还了约 70% 的价值。9月初，该公司发布了第一财季业绩，这导致该股进一步失望，导致该股进一步下跌约5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72921aed6d4198ec90336315baf0b271\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>For now, the bearish thesis has won out</b></p><p><blockquote><b>目前，看跌论点已经胜出</b></blockquote></p><p> I had been bearish on C3.ai since its IPO. I've consistently called out a number of flaws with the company, including:</p><p><blockquote>自 C3.ai 首次公开募股以来，我一直看跌它。我一直指出该公司的许多缺陷，包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Huge valuation for relatively normal growth rates.</b>C3.ai, at its peaks, was trading at >40x forward revenue despite a ~30% y/y revenue growth rate - which is a massive valuation premium for what is considered a \"normal\" growth rate in enterprise software.</li> <li><b>Customer concentration.</b>C3.ai only has a handful of customers, and its largest customer Baker Hughes, the oil services giant, is also a reseller of its product. Oil and gas companies overall represent about a third of its revenue.</li> <li><b>Massive losses.</b>C3.ai loses nearly a dollar, in GAAP terms, for every dollar of revenue it generates.</li> </ul> The only reason investors clung onto this stock was for its thematic buzz (AI, needless to say, is one of the hottest areas in software) as well as their confidence in C3.ai's founder and CEO Tom Siebel, who founded and sold Siebel Systems to Oracle (ORCL) and has many deep-seated relationships in Silicon Valley.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>相对正常的增长率的巨大估值。</b>尽管收入同比增长率约为 30%，但 C3.ai 在巅峰时期的交易价格为远期收入的 40 倍以上——这对于企业软件的“正常”增长率来说是一个巨大的估值溢价。</li><li><b>客户集中度。</b>C3.ai的客户屈指可数，其最大客户石油服务巨头贝克休斯也是其产品的经销商。石油和天然气公司总体上约占其收入的三分之一。</li><li><b>巨大损失。</b>按照 GAAP 标准，C3.ai 每产生 1 美元收入，就会损失近 1 美元。</li></ul>投资者坚持持有这只股票的唯一原因是它的主题热度（不用说，人工智能是软件领域最热门的领域之一）以及他们对 C3.ai 创始人兼首席执行官 Tom Siebel 的信心，他创立了 Siebel Systems 并将其出售给甲骨文 (ORCL)，并在硅谷拥有许多深厚的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>But rest assured that a buy-the-dip opportunity may be emerging</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但请放心，逢低买入机会可能正在出现</b></blockquote></p><p> Yet as my readers know, I'm a big believer in buy-the-dip. I prefer buying into companies when sentiment is weak and waiting for the rebound, rather than risking a purchase at market tops (this is especially true as the post-pandemic bull market continues to notch new, lofty highs with each trading day). In my view, the C3.ai slump is close to breaking.</p><p><blockquote>然而，正如我的读者所知，我非常相信逢低买入。我更喜欢在市场情绪疲软并等待反弹时买入公司，而不是在市场顶部冒险买入（尤其是在大流行后的牛市每个交易日都在继续创下新的高点的情况下）。在我看来，C3.ai 的暴跌已接近崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> Valuation is the key here, as C3.ai's correction has no longer left the company egregiously overvalued. At current share prices near $51, C3.ai has a market cap of $5.23 billion. After we net off the $1.10 billion of cash on C3.ai's balance sheet (for a company of this size, C3.ai's cash pile is quite enormous, which is one reason to be comfortable with this stock), the company's resulting<b>enterprise value is $4.14 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>估值是这里的关键，因为 C3.ai 的修正不再导致该公司被严重高估。按目前接近 51 美元的股价计算，C3.ai 的市值为 52.3 亿美元。在我们从 C3.ai 的资产负债表上扣除 11 亿美元现金后（对于这样规模的公司来说，C3.ai 的现金池相当巨大，这也是对这只股票感到满意的原因之一），该公司的结果<b>企业价值为41.4亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For the current fiscal year high ends in April 2022, meanwhile, C3.ai has guided to a revenue range of $243-$247 million, representing 33-35% y/y growth. It's going to need to stretch to get there: Q1 growth clocked in at only 29% y/y, but the company is guiding to acceleration in Q2 to 35-40% y/y growth.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，对于 2022 年 4 月结束的本财年高端，C3.ai 的收入范围为 2.43-2.47 亿美元，同比增长 33-35%。要实现这一目标，还需要付出努力：第一季度的同比增长率仅为 29%，但该公司预计第二季度的同比增长率将加速至 35-40%。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. C3.ai guidance update</p><p><blockquote>图1。C3.ai指南更新</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c07c9c3368340d8ddbb12dad77bcbe51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: C3.ai Q1 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：C3.ai 第一季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If we take the midpoint of C3.ai's FY22 guidance range at face value, the company's valuation sits at<b>16.9x EV/FY22 revenue.</b>That's hardly a cheap multiple, but it's far cheaper than what C3.ai was trading at earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们按面值取 C3.ai 2022 财年指导范围的中点，则该公司的估值为<b>16.9 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b>这并不是一个便宜的倍数，但比 C3.ai 今年早些时候的交易价格便宜得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The bottom line here: I'm<b>upgrading my view on C3.ai to neutral,</b>and putting the stock on my watch list. I'm interested in dipping my toes into this stock if it reaches a<b>$41 price level,</b>representing<b>12.5x EV/FY22 revenue.</b>Given the fierceness of C3.ai's recent correction, we may hit those levels within the month.</p><p><blockquote>底线是：我是<b>将我对C3.ai的看法升级为中立，</b>把股票列入我的观察名单。如果这只股票达到<b>41美元的价格水平，</b>代表<b>12.5 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b>鉴于 C3.ai 最近调整的剧烈程度，我们可能会在一个月内达到这些水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 download</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Q1下载</b></blockquote></p><p> C3.ai's Q1 update wasn't perfect, but it wasn't all bad, either. Take a look at the earnings summary in the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>C3.ai 的第一季度更新并不完美，但也不全是坏事。看看下图中的收益摘要：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. C3.ai Q1 results</p><p><blockquote>图2。C3.ai Q1业绩</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd17939012426be90aef9075eb37faf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: C3.ai Q1 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：C3.ai 第一季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> C3.ai grew its revenue at a 29% y/y clip to $52.4 million in revenue, which was only a minor beat versus Wall Street's expectations for $51.3 million (+27% y/y) in revenue. At the same time, C3.ai saw a minor acceleration as well from 26% y/y growth in Q4, which was a plus.</p><p><blockquote>C3.ai 的收入同比增长 29%，达到 5240 万美元，仅略高于华尔街预期的 5130 万美元（同比增长 27%）。与此同时，C3.ai 也较第四季度 26% 的同比增长略有加速，这是一个利好。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some more good news: C3.ai's enterprise AI customer base hit 98 in the quarter, up 85% y/y. One of my biggest concerns with C3.ai is the fact that it still has only a fledgling customer base; at the time of its IPO, the company's ~50 customers could hardly be construed as a true enterprise software giant in the making. Yet C3.ai's clientele does skew large, and its progress in adding new customers is a promising sign.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一些好消息：C3.ai 的企业人工智能客户群本季度达到 98 个，同比增长 85%。我对C3.ai最大的担忧之一是它仍然只有一个羽翼未丰的客户群；在IPO时，该公司的约50名客户很难被解释为一个真正的企业软件巨头。然而，C3.ai 的客户群确实存在很大的偏差，其在增加新客户方面的进展是一个充满希望的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Another positive development: C3.ai has entered into both a product and go-to-market partnership with Google Cloud (GOOG). Building on top of an existing commercial agreement with Microsoft Azure (MSFT), this partnership will give C3.ai even more expansion potential into Google Cloud's universe of customers, as well as gain access to Google Cloud's sales force. The Azure partnership has yielded $200 million of closed business to date, with $350 million more in the pipeline: we hope the Google Cloud partnership can yield similar fruitful results.</p><p><blockquote>另一个积极的进展：C3.ai 已与 Google Cloud (GOOG) 建立产品和上市合作伙伴关系。在与微软 Azure (MSFT) 现有商业协议的基础上，此次合作伙伴关系将使 C3.ai 在 Google Cloud 的客户领域拥有更大的扩张潜力，并获得 Google Cloud 的销售队伍。迄今为止，Azure合作伙伴关系已经产生了2亿美元的已完成业务，还有3.5亿美元正在筹备中：我们希望谷歌云合作伙伴关系能够产生类似的丰硕成果。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 3. C3.ai/Google Cloud partnership</p><p><blockquote>图3。C3.ai/谷歌云合作伙伴关系</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6e19183efc667b0bb2dd771234bfc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: C3.ai Q1 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：C3.ai 第一季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Going forward, management expects C3.ai to lead with some smaller, lower-priced, and high-value products like C3.ai CRM. These purpose-built applications are more plug-and-play and give a chance for C3.ai to \"land\" more customers and seed the \"expand\" opportunity for later. Per CEO Tom Siebel's prepared remarks on the Q1 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，管理层预计 C3.ai 将以 C3.ai CRM 等更小、价格更低、价值更高的产品引领潮流。这些专门构建的应用程序更加即插即用，为 C3.ai 提供了一个“获得”更多客户的机会，并为以后的“扩展”机会播下了种子。根据首席执行官 Tom Siebel 在第一季度盈利看涨期权上准备好的讲话：</blockquote></p><p> As we have previously discussed, historically, our business has been characterized by quarter-to-quarter lumpiness due to the substantial size of our average order value. Now as application sales become an increasingly large part of our revenue mix, roughly 50% of our subscriptions last quarter in Q1 accrued from application software. We are increasingly offering lower priced, high-value products like C3 AI CRM and Ex Machina. And as we've discussed, we've been diversifying our distribution model to complement enterprise selling with telesales, distributors, market partners and direct marketplace selling.\" However, C3.ai's investments into sales and marketing have continued to burn holes through margins, which is a chief investor concern that has been a primary catalyst in dragging the share price down. Due to a massive increase in sales and marketing costs to 58% of revenue (25 points more than 33% in the year-ago Q2), C3.ai's pro forma operating margins hit a -42% mark in Q1, 40 points worse than the year-ago quarter. This was buffeted as well by a 12-point increase in R&D expense as a percentage of revenue and a 4-point increase in general and administrative expenses, and only partially offset by a three-point bump in pro forma gross margins.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前所讨论的，从历史上看，由于我们的平均订单价值很大，我们的业务的特点是季度与季度之间的波动。现在，随着应用程序销售成为我们收入组合中越来越大的一部分，我们第一季度最后一个季度大约50%的订阅来自应用软件。我们越来越多地提供价格更低、价值更高的产品，如C3 AI CRM和Ex Machina。正如我们所讨论的，我们一直在使分销模式多样化，通过电话销售、分销商、市场合作伙伴和直接市场销售来补充企业销售。”然而，C3.ai 在销售和营销方面的投资继续侵蚀利润率，这是投资者的主要担忧，也是拖累股价的主要催化剂。由于销售和营销成本大幅增加至收入的 58%（比去年同期第二季度的 33% 高出 25 个百分点），C3.ai 第一季度的预计营业利润率达到-42%，比去年同期下降 40 个百分点。这也受到研发费用占收入百分比增加 12 个百分点以及一般和管理费用增加 4 个百分点的影响，但预计毛利率增长 3 个百分点仅部分抵消了这一影响。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 4. C3.ai operating margin trends</p><p><blockquote>图4。C3.ai 营业利润率趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeb7285944ea24037260f852641bfdeb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: C3.ai Q1 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：C3.ai 第一季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> C3.ai remains a grab bag of pros and cons, in my mind. On the positive front, C3.ai possesses a broad technology base, and its recent go-to-market developments (leading with smaller products like CRM to bag more customers, and a new partnership with Google Cloud) are promising growth levers. At the same time, C3.ai's relatively limited market penetration and heavy losses are worrying.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，C3.ai 仍然是一个有利有弊的大杂烩。从积极的方面来看，C3.ai 拥有广泛的技术基础，其最近的上市发展（以 CRM 等小型产品领先以吸引更多客户，以及与 Google Cloud 的新合作伙伴关系）是有希望的增长杠杆。与此同时，C3.ai相对有限的市场渗透率和沉重的亏损令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At the right price, I'm a buyer. I'm waiting for a further ~20% dip in C3.ai to the low $40s before diving in, but this stock is now a firm watch list item for me.</p><p><blockquote>只要价格合适，我就是买家。我正在等待 C3.ai 进一步下跌约 20% 至 40 美元的低点，然后再潜入，但这只股票现在对我来说是一个坚定的观察清单项目。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453772-c3ai-a-buy-point-coming-soon\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AI":"C3.ai, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453772-c3ai-a-buy-point-coming-soon","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181754918","content_text":"Summary\n\nC3.ai has lost 70% of its value relative to all-time highs near $170 that it notched immediately after its IPO.\nThe stock's downfall is a reflection of only middling results, and its relatively tiny traction within its market.\nC3.ai's customer concentration, especially on Baker Hughes, still remains a consistent problem.\nStill, C3.ai is approaching a buyable valuation as it hits a mid-teens multiple of this year's revenue.\n\nhapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nSooner or later, the law of gravity comes for software stocks too: what comes up, must come down. Such was the case with C3.ai (AI), one of the hottest IPOs of the past year that immediately saw its stock price quadruple. C3.ai is an enterprise AI platform - that is, a technology base that lets its clients build and deploy artificial intelligence applications with preset tools. Investors had wide hopes for this company given the open-ended use cases this type of product can offer - but so far, C3.ai hasn't delivered the kind of growth rates that investors typically come to invest with these startup-like public equities.\nC3.ai hit an all-time high of ~$170 this February, representing a quadrupling from its IPO price of $42. Since then, the stock has crumbled and given back ~70% of its value. In early September, the company released fiscal Q1 results, which were a cause for further disappointment in the stock that caused a further ~5% dip.\nData by YCharts\nFor now, the bearish thesis has won out\nI had been bearish on C3.ai since its IPO. I've consistently called out a number of flaws with the company, including:\n\nHuge valuation for relatively normal growth rates.C3.ai, at its peaks, was trading at >40x forward revenue despite a ~30% y/y revenue growth rate - which is a massive valuation premium for what is considered a \"normal\" growth rate in enterprise software.\nCustomer concentration.C3.ai only has a handful of customers, and its largest customer Baker Hughes, the oil services giant, is also a reseller of its product. Oil and gas companies overall represent about a third of its revenue.\nMassive losses.C3.ai loses nearly a dollar, in GAAP terms, for every dollar of revenue it generates.\n\nThe only reason investors clung onto this stock was for its thematic buzz (AI, needless to say, is one of the hottest areas in software) as well as their confidence in C3.ai's founder and CEO Tom Siebel, who founded and sold Siebel Systems to Oracle (ORCL) and has many deep-seated relationships in Silicon Valley.\nBut rest assured that a buy-the-dip opportunity may be emerging\nYet as my readers know, I'm a big believer in buy-the-dip. I prefer buying into companies when sentiment is weak and waiting for the rebound, rather than risking a purchase at market tops (this is especially true as the post-pandemic bull market continues to notch new, lofty highs with each trading day). In my view, the C3.ai slump is close to breaking.\nValuation is the key here, as C3.ai's correction has no longer left the company egregiously overvalued. At current share prices near $51, C3.ai has a market cap of $5.23 billion. After we net off the $1.10 billion of cash on C3.ai's balance sheet (for a company of this size, C3.ai's cash pile is quite enormous, which is one reason to be comfortable with this stock), the company's resultingenterprise value is $4.14 billion.\nFor the current fiscal year high ends in April 2022, meanwhile, C3.ai has guided to a revenue range of $243-$247 million, representing 33-35% y/y growth. It's going to need to stretch to get there: Q1 growth clocked in at only 29% y/y, but the company is guiding to acceleration in Q2 to 35-40% y/y growth.\nFigure 1. C3.ai guidance update\nSource: C3.ai Q1 earnings deck\nIf we take the midpoint of C3.ai's FY22 guidance range at face value, the company's valuation sits at16.9x EV/FY22 revenue.That's hardly a cheap multiple, but it's far cheaper than what C3.ai was trading at earlier this year.\nThe bottom line here: I'mupgrading my view on C3.ai to neutral,and putting the stock on my watch list. I'm interested in dipping my toes into this stock if it reaches a$41 price level,representing12.5x EV/FY22 revenue.Given the fierceness of C3.ai's recent correction, we may hit those levels within the month.\nQ1 download\nC3.ai's Q1 update wasn't perfect, but it wasn't all bad, either. Take a look at the earnings summary in the chart below:\nFigure 2. C3.ai Q1 results\nSource: C3.ai Q1 earnings deck\nC3.ai grew its revenue at a 29% y/y clip to $52.4 million in revenue, which was only a minor beat versus Wall Street's expectations for $51.3 million (+27% y/y) in revenue. At the same time, C3.ai saw a minor acceleration as well from 26% y/y growth in Q4, which was a plus.\nHere's some more good news: C3.ai's enterprise AI customer base hit 98 in the quarter, up 85% y/y. One of my biggest concerns with C3.ai is the fact that it still has only a fledgling customer base; at the time of its IPO, the company's ~50 customers could hardly be construed as a true enterprise software giant in the making. Yet C3.ai's clientele does skew large, and its progress in adding new customers is a promising sign.\nAnother positive development: C3.ai has entered into both a product and go-to-market partnership with Google Cloud (GOOG). Building on top of an existing commercial agreement with Microsoft Azure (MSFT), this partnership will give C3.ai even more expansion potential into Google Cloud's universe of customers, as well as gain access to Google Cloud's sales force. The Azure partnership has yielded $200 million of closed business to date, with $350 million more in the pipeline: we hope the Google Cloud partnership can yield similar fruitful results.\nFigure 3. C3.ai/Google Cloud partnership\nSource: C3.ai Q1 earnings deck\nGoing forward, management expects C3.ai to lead with some smaller, lower-priced, and high-value products like C3.ai CRM. These purpose-built applications are more plug-and-play and give a chance for C3.ai to \"land\" more customers and seed the \"expand\" opportunity for later. Per CEO Tom Siebel's prepared remarks on the Q1 earnings call:\n\n As we have previously discussed, historically, our business has been characterized by quarter-to-quarter lumpiness due to the substantial size of our average order value.\n\n\n Now as application sales become an increasingly large part of our revenue mix, roughly 50% of our subscriptions last quarter in Q1 accrued from application software. We are increasingly offering lower priced, high-value products like C3 AI CRM and Ex Machina. And as we've discussed, we've been diversifying our distribution model to complement enterprise selling with telesales, distributors, market partners and direct marketplace selling.\"\n\nHowever, C3.ai's investments into sales and marketing have continued to burn holes through margins, which is a chief investor concern that has been a primary catalyst in dragging the share price down. Due to a massive increase in sales and marketing costs to 58% of revenue (25 points more than 33% in the year-ago Q2), C3.ai's pro forma operating margins hit a -42% mark in Q1, 40 points worse than the year-ago quarter. This was buffeted as well by a 12-point increase in R&D expense as a percentage of revenue and a 4-point increase in general and administrative expenses, and only partially offset by a three-point bump in pro forma gross margins.\nFigure 4. C3.ai operating margin trends\nSource: C3.ai Q1 earnings deck\nKey takeaways\nC3.ai remains a grab bag of pros and cons, in my mind. On the positive front, C3.ai possesses a broad technology base, and its recent go-to-market developments (leading with smaller products like CRM to bag more customers, and a new partnership with Google Cloud) are promising growth levers. At the same time, C3.ai's relatively limited market penetration and heavy losses are worrying.\nAt the right price, I'm a buyer. I'm waiting for a further ~20% dip in C3.ai to the low $40s before diving in, but this stock is now a firm watch list item for me.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":730,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/817247277"}
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