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2021-08-27
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Box: A Comfortable Investment At Tremendously Cheap Prices<blockquote>盒子：价格极其便宜的舒适投资</blockquote>
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The file storage and sharing service, one of the earlier SaaS companies to go public and gain a reputation for \"growth at all costs,\" has seen a 40% jump in its stock price year to date, more than doubling that of the S&P 500 - though that hardly makes up for Box's years of disappointing returns. This is the year, however, that investors have seemed to favor positioning themselves defensively with value stocks over growth, even with the market counting to sit at all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，2021年对于Box（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BOX）来说是充满希望的一年。这家文件存储和共享服务公司是较早上市并赢得“不惜一切代价实现增长”声誉的SaaS公司之一，今年迄今为止，其股价已上涨40%，是标普500的两倍多——尽管这很难弥补Box多年来令人失望的回报。然而，今年，投资者似乎更倾向于将价值股置于防御性地位，而不是成长股，尽管市场有望达到历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> A slight crack in this positive rebound showed after Box reported Q2 results, which resulted in a ~5% dip despite strong top and bottom-line results. In my view, the dip is a strong buying opportunity in a company that has repeatedly shown its capacity to scale profitably and to retain growth in a software category that is often described as overly competitive.</p><p><blockquote>Box公布第二季度业绩后，这种积极的反弹出现了轻微的裂痕，尽管营收和利润强劲，但仍导致股价下跌约5%。在我看来，对于一家一再表现出盈利规模并在经常被描述为竞争过度的软件类别中保持增长的公司来说，此次下跌是一个强有力的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9c3ef144b8f48e4171067b3519dce8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> My main investing strategy over the past year has been to find stocks that I feel comfortable buying at all-time market tops. The basic question here is: \"what stock will be relatively immune to, say, a ~20% market correction, by gist of the fact that it's already currently cheap to begin with?\" Box has always retained a strong value element, and today, with strong forward-looking estimates plus a still-depressed share price, that value element has never been brighter.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年，我的主要投资策略是寻找我觉得可以在市场历史高点买入的股票。这里的基本问题是：“鉴于目前的价格已经很便宜，哪只股票相对不受大约20%的市场调整的影响？”Box始终保留着强大的价值要素，如今，凭借强劲的前瞻性预测加上仍然低迷的股价，这一价值要素从未如此光明。</blockquote></p><p> At current share prices near $25, Box trades at a market cap of $3.85 billion. After we net off the $829.4 million of cash and $366.5 million of debt on Box's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $3.39 billion.</p><p><blockquote>按目前接近25美元的股价计算，Box的市值为38.5亿美元。在我们扣除Box最新资产负债表上的8.294亿美元现金和3.665亿美元债务后，该公司的企业价值为33.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the current fiscal year, Box has guided to revenue of $856-$860 million, representing 12% y/y growth. For the next fiscal year (FY22), Wall Street analysts have given a consensus revenue target of $942.5 million for Box, representing 11% y/y growth (data from Yahoo Finance). This puts Box's valuation multiples at an ultra-modest multiple of:</p><p><blockquote>本财年，Box预计收入为8.56-8.6亿美元，同比增长12%。对于下一财年（2022财年），华尔街分析师一致认为Box的收入目标为9.425亿美元，同比增长11%（数据来自雅虎财经）。这使得Box的估值倍数处于超适中的倍数：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>4.0x EV/FY21 revenue</b></li> <li><b>3.6x EV/FY22 revenue</b></li> </ul> Recall as well that Box has maintained its goal of hitting a \"Rule of 40\" profile by FY24, which it defines as revenue growth plus free cash flow margin (the latter standing in for how most companies calculate the Rule of 40, with pro forma operating margin instead of FCF).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>4.0倍EV/21财年收入</b></li><li><b>3.6倍EV/22财年收入</b></li></ul>还要回顾一下，Box一直保持着到2024财年达到“40法则”的目标，它将其定义为收入增长加上自由现金流利润率（后者代表了大多数公司计算40法则的方式，预计营业利润率而不是自由现金流）。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Box Rule of 40</p><p><blockquote>图1。方框规则40</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffb5ce6e7901cd0b87e178d41c64b2ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BoxQ2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BoxQ2投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's tease that out quickly. If Box hits 11% y/y growth in the two years after FY22, then its revenue in that year would be $1.16 billion. The lower point of its guidance would suggest a 29% FCF margin (though it really expects to be at 40%+ growth plus FCF margin in that year), which would imply $336.4 million in FCF. Its current valuation, then, stands at a ~10x multiple of future cash flow (an even lower multiple would result if Box outperforms the lower end of its Rule of 40 guidance).</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速梳理一下。如果Box在2022财年之后的两年内实现11%的同比增长，那么其当年的收入将为11.6亿美元。其指导的较低点表明自由现金流利润率为29%（尽管它确实预计当年的增长加上自由现金流利润率为40%以上），这意味着自由现金流为3.364亿美元。因此，其目前的估值约为未来现金流的10倍（如果Box的表现优于其40规则指导的下限，则会导致更低的倍数）。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from the free cash flow opportunity, here are the other reasons to be bullish on Box, as a refresher:</p><p><blockquote>除了自由现金流机会之外，以下是看好Box的其他原因，作为回顾：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Nearly pure recurring revenue business that has shown resilience during macroeconomic shocks.</b>Even amid the pandemic, Box has managed to retain its low double-digit/high single-digit revenue growth rates. Revenue growth in Q2 accelerated over Q1, showing sustained momentum.</li> <li><b>Enterprise orientation.</b>Of all of its well-known competitors, Box is the only company that is enterprise-focused. The company touts its security features plus advanced capabilities like Box Skills as key distinguishers versus the likes of Dropbox.</li> <li><b>Box's product portfolio expansion has led to a $55 billion market.</b>Despite competition, Box cites a massive $55 billion market across storage, content collaboration, and data security. That's a big enough space for multiple incumbents, and also suggests Box is only currently ~2% penetrated into this overall market. Recent portfolio additions like Box Sign have greatly expanded Box's potential.</li> </ul> Stay long here and use the dip as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>近乎纯粹的经常性收入业务，在宏观经济冲击期间表现出弹性。</b>即使在疫情期间，Box仍设法保持了低两位数/高个位数的收入增长率。Q2营收增速较Q1加快，呈现持续势头。</li><li><b>企业导向。</b>在所有知名竞争对手中，Box是唯一一家专注于企业的公司。该公司吹捧其安全功能以及Box Skills等高级功能是与Dropbox等公司的关键区别。</li><li><b>Box的产品组合扩张带来了550亿美元的市场。</b>尽管存在竞争，Box仍列举了存储、内容协作和数据安全领域价值550亿美元的巨大市场。对于多个现有企业来说，这是一个足够大的空间，也表明Box目前仅渗透到整个市场约2%。最近增加的产品组合，如Box Sign，极大地扩展了Box的潜力。</li></ul>在这里做多，并利用下跌作为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q2 download</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Q2下载</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's now cover Box's latest second-quarter results in greater detail. There were no major red flags to be found, in my mind, that warrants Box's ~5% drop.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们更详细地介绍Box最新的第二季度业绩。在我看来，没有发现任何重大危险信号可以证明Box下跌约5%。</blockquote></p><p> Starting with revenue: Box saw its revenue growth accelerate two points in the quarter, growing 12% y/y to $214.5 million, edging out over Wall Street's $213.0 million (+11% y/y) expectations. We note as well that this is Box's strongest quarter for revenue growth over the past five.</p><p><blockquote>从收入开始：Box本季度收入增长加速两个百分点，同比增长12%至2.145亿美元，略高于华尔街2.13亿美元（同比增长11%）的预期。我们还注意到，这是Box过去五年来收入增长最强劲的季度。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Box revenue growth trends</p><p><blockquote>图2。盒子收入增长趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b477b6fd8ecc7c46b3fcce168903fcb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Box Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Box第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Box has also shown strong billings trends. Recall that in Q1, the company saw 24% y/y growth in billings, but against a very easy pandemic comp that saw deal signings materially slow down upon the immediate start of lockdowns. Yet billings were also strong in Q2 at 13% y/y growth, indicating that revenue growth may accelerate beyond 12% y/y growth in the near future. Note that Box's long-term operating plan calls for revenue growth between 12-16% y/y (so our expectations of 11% y/y are more on the conservative side). Box's deferred revenue is also up 16% y/y, indicating a strong \"pipeline\" of deals billed that are waiting to be recognized as revenue.</p><p><blockquote>Box也显示出强劲的计费趋势。回想一下，在第一季度，该公司的账单同比增长了24%，但与非常轻松的疫情相比，交易签署在封锁立即开始后大幅放缓。然而，第二季度的营收也很强劲，同比增长13%，这表明收入增长在不久的将来可能会加速超过12%的同比增长。请注意，Box的长期运营计划评级收入同比增长12-16%（因此我们对同比增长11%的预期更为保守）。Box的递延收入也同比增长16%，表明等待确认为收入的已计费交易“管道”很强。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 3. Box billings trends</p><p><blockquote>图3.Box billings趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b81a48cf40f716a78b1cadfb79ae971\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Box Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Box第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company has noted that the rollout of the Box Sign product, Box's answer to the likes of DocuSign, has been a successful one. Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from founder and CEO Aaron Levie on the most recent Q2 earnings call detailing Box Sign traction and other go-to-market strengths:</p><p><blockquote>该公司指出，Box Sign产品（Box对DocuSign等产品的回应）的推出取得了成功。以下是创始人兼首席执行官Aaron Levie对看涨期权最新第二季度收益的一些有用的轶事评论，详细介绍了Box Sign的吸引力和其他上市优势：</blockquote></p><p> Initial response from customers has been very positive and we're rolling out Box Sign to all business and enterprise customers throughout this fall with a significant roadmap of innovation ahead [...] Building on the success of suites, in late July, we also announced a new simplified product addition for our enterprise customers called Enterprise Plus, which includes shield governance, relay, platform, Box Sign, the ability for large file uploads and enhanced support and consulting credits. You can see the success of our go-to-market efforts most clearly when looking at our Q2 customer expansion. For instance, one of the largest banks in the world purchases seven figure deal with multiple products, including key safe governance, relay shield and platform to support new use cases for Box, including claims processing and loan origination and a more secure virtual environment.\" To Levie's last point, multi-product customers have become a defining feature of Box's growth strategy. 73% of Box's >$100k deals are now \"Box Suite\" deals, with custom pricing for a basket of Box services. Two years ago, when Box was still rolling out Suites, this rate stood closer to 10%.</p><p><blockquote>客户的初步反应非常积极，我们将在今年秋季向所有商业和企业客户推出Box Sign，并制定重要的创新路线图[...]在suites成功的基础上，7月下旬，我们还宣布为我们的企业客户推出一款名为Enterprise Plus的新简化产品，其中包括shield governance、relay、platform、Box Sign、大型文件上传功能以及增强的支持和咨询信用。当您查看我们第二季度的客户扩张时，您可以最清楚地看到我们上市努力的成功。例如，世界上最大的银行之一购买了多个产品的七位数交易，包括key safe governance、relay shield和支持Box新用例的平台，包括索赔处理和贷款发放以及更安全的虚拟环境。”Levie的最后一点是，多产品客户已成为Box增长战略的决定性特征。Box超过10万美元的交易中有73%现在是“Box Suite”交易，对一篮子Box服务进行定制定价。两年前，当Box还在推出套件时，这一比例接近10%。</blockquote></p><p> The trend toward more products per customer has helped bring up Box's net revenue retention rates as well, which you can see in the chart below has improved to 106%, from the low 100% range during the pandemic:</p><p><blockquote>每位客户提供更多产品的趋势也有助于提高Box的净收入保留率，如下图所示，净收入保留率已从大流行期间100%的低范围提高到106%：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 4. Box net retention rates</p><p><blockquote>图4.盒子净保留率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04cfd569714ad97156280e851aa6abac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Box Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Box第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Box also managed to retain these strong top-line trends while delivering substantial profitability performance. The company's gross margins improved 100bps to 74.5%, while pro forma operating expenses fell 4% as a percentage of revenue, driven by a two-point reduction each in sales and marketing and R&D expenses:</p><p><blockquote>Box还成功保持了这些强劲的营收趋势，同时实现了可观的盈利表现。该公司的毛利率提高了100个基点，达到74.5%，而预计运营费用占收入的百分比下降了4%，这是由于销售和营销费用以及研发费用各下降了两个百分点：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 5. Box gross margin trends</p><p><blockquote>图5.盒子毛利率趋势</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92552ec3249e1c378987e476b7ff4bb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Box Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Box第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company also delivered $29.8 million of free cash flow in the quarter, up more than 2x y/y. Year to date, Box's free cash flow of $105.7 million has also doubled y/y and is at a 25% FCF margin.</p><p><blockquote>该公司本季度还实现了2980万美元的自由现金流，同比增长超过2倍。今年迄今为止，Box的自由现金流为1.057亿美元，同比也翻了一番，自由现金流利润率为25%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> Box falls into a category of stocks that I would consider \"guilt free.\" I don't need to feel anxious about buying this stock at market highs because I know its ultra-low valuation shields it from much further downside. On top of consistent low-teens growth, free cash flow expansion and ambitious long-term targets for continued FCF conversion, I'm staying long here.</p><p><blockquote>Box属于我认为“无罪”的股票类别。我不需要对在市场高点购买这只股票感到焦虑，因为我知道它的超低估值使其免受进一步下跌的影响。除了持续的低增长、自由现金流扩张以及持续自由现金流转换的雄心勃勃的长期目标之外，我还会在这里呆很长时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Box: A Comfortable Investment At Tremendously Cheap Prices<blockquote>盒子：价格极其便宜的舒适投资</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBox: A Comfortable Investment At Tremendously Cheap Prices<blockquote>盒子：价格极其便宜的舒适投资</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 21:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Box have fallen ~5% after a strong Q2 earnings report.</li> <li>Revenue growth accelerated to 12% y/y, and billings growth of 13% y/y indicates that revenue growth may even pick up slightly.</li> <li>The company also delivered significant margin expansion and expects to hit the \"Rule of 40\" on a free cash flow basis by FY24.</li> <li>Box is still a very cheap stock at <4x forward revenue.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1670e3d657812cae8258809923793c19\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1026\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Noam Galai/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在发布强劲的第二季度收益报告后，Box股价下跌约5%。</li><li>收入同比增长加速至12%，账单同比增长13%，表明收入增长甚至可能略有回升。</li><li>该公司还实现了利润率显着扩张，预计到2024财年自由现金流将达到“40法则”。</li><li>Box仍然是一只非常便宜的股票，预期收入不到4倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>诺姆·加莱/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far, the year 2021 has been a promising one for Box(NYSE:BOX). The file storage and sharing service, one of the earlier SaaS companies to go public and gain a reputation for \"growth at all costs,\" has seen a 40% jump in its stock price year to date, more than doubling that of the S&P 500 - though that hardly makes up for Box's years of disappointing returns. This is the year, however, that investors have seemed to favor positioning themselves defensively with value stocks over growth, even with the market counting to sit at all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，2021年对于Box（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BOX）来说是充满希望的一年。这家文件存储和共享服务公司是较早上市并赢得“不惜一切代价实现增长”声誉的SaaS公司之一，今年迄今为止，其股价已上涨40%，是标普500的两倍多——尽管这很难弥补Box多年来令人失望的回报。然而，今年，投资者似乎更倾向于将价值股置于防御性地位，而不是成长股，尽管市场有望达到历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> A slight crack in this positive rebound showed after Box reported Q2 results, which resulted in a ~5% dip despite strong top and bottom-line results. In my view, the dip is a strong buying opportunity in a company that has repeatedly shown its capacity to scale profitably and to retain growth in a software category that is often described as overly competitive.</p><p><blockquote>Box公布第二季度业绩后，这种积极的反弹出现了轻微的裂痕，尽管营收和利润强劲，但仍导致股价下跌约5%。在我看来，对于一家一再表现出盈利规模并在经常被描述为竞争过度的软件类别中保持增长的公司来说，此次下跌是一个强有力的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9c3ef144b8f48e4171067b3519dce8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> My main investing strategy over the past year has been to find stocks that I feel comfortable buying at all-time market tops. The basic question here is: \"what stock will be relatively immune to, say, a ~20% market correction, by gist of the fact that it's already currently cheap to begin with?\" Box has always retained a strong value element, and today, with strong forward-looking estimates plus a still-depressed share price, that value element has never been brighter.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年，我的主要投资策略是寻找我觉得可以在市场历史高点买入的股票。这里的基本问题是：“鉴于目前的价格已经很便宜，哪只股票相对不受大约20%的市场调整的影响？”Box始终保留着强大的价值要素，如今，凭借强劲的前瞻性预测加上仍然低迷的股价，这一价值要素从未如此光明。</blockquote></p><p> At current share prices near $25, Box trades at a market cap of $3.85 billion. After we net off the $829.4 million of cash and $366.5 million of debt on Box's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $3.39 billion.</p><p><blockquote>按目前接近25美元的股价计算，Box的市值为38.5亿美元。在我们扣除Box最新资产负债表上的8.294亿美元现金和3.665亿美元债务后，该公司的企业价值为33.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the current fiscal year, Box has guided to revenue of $856-$860 million, representing 12% y/y growth. For the next fiscal year (FY22), Wall Street analysts have given a consensus revenue target of $942.5 million for Box, representing 11% y/y growth (data from Yahoo Finance). This puts Box's valuation multiples at an ultra-modest multiple of:</p><p><blockquote>本财年，Box预计收入为8.56-8.6亿美元，同比增长12%。对于下一财年（2022财年），华尔街分析师一致认为Box的收入目标为9.425亿美元，同比增长11%（数据来自雅虎财经）。这使得Box的估值倍数处于超适中的倍数：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>4.0x EV/FY21 revenue</b></li> <li><b>3.6x EV/FY22 revenue</b></li> </ul> Recall as well that Box has maintained its goal of hitting a \"Rule of 40\" profile by FY24, which it defines as revenue growth plus free cash flow margin (the latter standing in for how most companies calculate the Rule of 40, with pro forma operating margin instead of FCF).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>4.0倍EV/21财年收入</b></li><li><b>3.6倍EV/22财年收入</b></li></ul>还要回顾一下，Box一直保持着到2024财年达到“40法则”的目标，它将其定义为收入增长加上自由现金流利润率（后者代表了大多数公司计算40法则的方式，预计营业利润率而不是自由现金流）。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Box Rule of 40</p><p><blockquote>图1。方框规则40</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffb5ce6e7901cd0b87e178d41c64b2ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BoxQ2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BoxQ2投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's tease that out quickly. If Box hits 11% y/y growth in the two years after FY22, then its revenue in that year would be $1.16 billion. The lower point of its guidance would suggest a 29% FCF margin (though it really expects to be at 40%+ growth plus FCF margin in that year), which would imply $336.4 million in FCF. Its current valuation, then, stands at a ~10x multiple of future cash flow (an even lower multiple would result if Box outperforms the lower end of its Rule of 40 guidance).</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速梳理一下。如果Box在2022财年之后的两年内实现11%的同比增长，那么其当年的收入将为11.6亿美元。其指导的较低点表明自由现金流利润率为29%（尽管它确实预计当年的增长加上自由现金流利润率为40%以上），这意味着自由现金流为3.364亿美元。因此，其目前的估值约为未来现金流的10倍（如果Box的表现优于其40规则指导的下限，则会导致更低的倍数）。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from the free cash flow opportunity, here are the other reasons to be bullish on Box, as a refresher:</p><p><blockquote>除了自由现金流机会之外，以下是看好Box的其他原因，作为回顾：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Nearly pure recurring revenue business that has shown resilience during macroeconomic shocks.</b>Even amid the pandemic, Box has managed to retain its low double-digit/high single-digit revenue growth rates. Revenue growth in Q2 accelerated over Q1, showing sustained momentum.</li> <li><b>Enterprise orientation.</b>Of all of its well-known competitors, Box is the only company that is enterprise-focused. The company touts its security features plus advanced capabilities like Box Skills as key distinguishers versus the likes of Dropbox.</li> <li><b>Box's product portfolio expansion has led to a $55 billion market.</b>Despite competition, Box cites a massive $55 billion market across storage, content collaboration, and data security. That's a big enough space for multiple incumbents, and also suggests Box is only currently ~2% penetrated into this overall market. Recent portfolio additions like Box Sign have greatly expanded Box's potential.</li> </ul> Stay long here and use the dip as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>近乎纯粹的经常性收入业务，在宏观经济冲击期间表现出弹性。</b>即使在疫情期间，Box仍设法保持了低两位数/高个位数的收入增长率。Q2营收增速较Q1加快，呈现持续势头。</li><li><b>企业导向。</b>在所有知名竞争对手中，Box是唯一一家专注于企业的公司。该公司吹捧其安全功能以及Box Skills等高级功能是与Dropbox等公司的关键区别。</li><li><b>Box的产品组合扩张带来了550亿美元的市场。</b>尽管存在竞争，Box仍列举了存储、内容协作和数据安全领域价值550亿美元的巨大市场。对于多个现有企业来说，这是一个足够大的空间，也表明Box目前仅渗透到整个市场约2%。最近增加的产品组合，如Box Sign，极大地扩展了Box的潜力。</li></ul>在这里做多，并利用下跌作为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q2 download</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Q2下载</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's now cover Box's latest second-quarter results in greater detail. There were no major red flags to be found, in my mind, that warrants Box's ~5% drop.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们更详细地介绍Box最新的第二季度业绩。在我看来，没有发现任何重大危险信号可以证明Box下跌约5%。</blockquote></p><p> Starting with revenue: Box saw its revenue growth accelerate two points in the quarter, growing 12% y/y to $214.5 million, edging out over Wall Street's $213.0 million (+11% y/y) expectations. We note as well that this is Box's strongest quarter for revenue growth over the past five.</p><p><blockquote>从收入开始：Box本季度收入增长加速两个百分点，同比增长12%至2.145亿美元，略高于华尔街2.13亿美元（同比增长11%）的预期。我们还注意到，这是Box过去五年来收入增长最强劲的季度。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Box revenue growth trends</p><p><blockquote>图2。盒子收入增长趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b477b6fd8ecc7c46b3fcce168903fcb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Box Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Box第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Box has also shown strong billings trends. Recall that in Q1, the company saw 24% y/y growth in billings, but against a very easy pandemic comp that saw deal signings materially slow down upon the immediate start of lockdowns. Yet billings were also strong in Q2 at 13% y/y growth, indicating that revenue growth may accelerate beyond 12% y/y growth in the near future. Note that Box's long-term operating plan calls for revenue growth between 12-16% y/y (so our expectations of 11% y/y are more on the conservative side). Box's deferred revenue is also up 16% y/y, indicating a strong \"pipeline\" of deals billed that are waiting to be recognized as revenue.</p><p><blockquote>Box也显示出强劲的计费趋势。回想一下，在第一季度，该公司的账单同比增长了24%，但与非常轻松的疫情相比，交易签署在封锁立即开始后大幅放缓。然而，第二季度的营收也很强劲，同比增长13%，这表明收入增长在不久的将来可能会加速超过12%的同比增长。请注意，Box的长期运营计划评级收入同比增长12-16%（因此我们对同比增长11%的预期更为保守）。Box的递延收入也同比增长16%，表明等待确认为收入的已计费交易“管道”很强。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 3. Box billings trends</p><p><blockquote>图3.Box billings趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b81a48cf40f716a78b1cadfb79ae971\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Box Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Box第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company has noted that the rollout of the Box Sign product, Box's answer to the likes of DocuSign, has been a successful one. Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from founder and CEO Aaron Levie on the most recent Q2 earnings call detailing Box Sign traction and other go-to-market strengths:</p><p><blockquote>该公司指出，Box Sign产品（Box对DocuSign等产品的回应）的推出取得了成功。以下是创始人兼首席执行官Aaron Levie对看涨期权最新第二季度收益的一些有用的轶事评论，详细介绍了Box Sign的吸引力和其他上市优势：</blockquote></p><p> Initial response from customers has been very positive and we're rolling out Box Sign to all business and enterprise customers throughout this fall with a significant roadmap of innovation ahead [...] Building on the success of suites, in late July, we also announced a new simplified product addition for our enterprise customers called Enterprise Plus, which includes shield governance, relay, platform, Box Sign, the ability for large file uploads and enhanced support and consulting credits. You can see the success of our go-to-market efforts most clearly when looking at our Q2 customer expansion. For instance, one of the largest banks in the world purchases seven figure deal with multiple products, including key safe governance, relay shield and platform to support new use cases for Box, including claims processing and loan origination and a more secure virtual environment.\" To Levie's last point, multi-product customers have become a defining feature of Box's growth strategy. 73% of Box's >$100k deals are now \"Box Suite\" deals, with custom pricing for a basket of Box services. Two years ago, when Box was still rolling out Suites, this rate stood closer to 10%.</p><p><blockquote>客户的初步反应非常积极，我们将在今年秋季向所有商业和企业客户推出Box Sign，并制定重要的创新路线图[...]在suites成功的基础上，7月下旬，我们还宣布为我们的企业客户推出一款名为Enterprise Plus的新简化产品，其中包括shield governance、relay、platform、Box Sign、大型文件上传功能以及增强的支持和咨询信用。当您查看我们第二季度的客户扩张时，您可以最清楚地看到我们上市努力的成功。例如，世界上最大的银行之一购买了多个产品的七位数交易，包括key safe governance、relay shield和支持Box新用例的平台，包括索赔处理和贷款发放以及更安全的虚拟环境。”Levie的最后一点是，多产品客户已成为Box增长战略的决定性特征。Box超过10万美元的交易中有73%现在是“Box Suite”交易，对一篮子Box服务进行定制定价。两年前，当Box还在推出套件时，这一比例接近10%。</blockquote></p><p> The trend toward more products per customer has helped bring up Box's net revenue retention rates as well, which you can see in the chart below has improved to 106%, from the low 100% range during the pandemic:</p><p><blockquote>每位客户提供更多产品的趋势也有助于提高Box的净收入保留率，如下图所示，净收入保留率已从大流行期间100%的低范围提高到106%：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 4. Box net retention rates</p><p><blockquote>图4.盒子净保留率</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04cfd569714ad97156280e851aa6abac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Box Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Box第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Box also managed to retain these strong top-line trends while delivering substantial profitability performance. The company's gross margins improved 100bps to 74.5%, while pro forma operating expenses fell 4% as a percentage of revenue, driven by a two-point reduction each in sales and marketing and R&D expenses:</p><p><blockquote>Box还成功保持了这些强劲的营收趋势，同时实现了可观的盈利表现。该公司的毛利率提高了100个基点，达到74.5%，而预计运营费用占收入的百分比下降了4%，这是由于销售和营销费用以及研发费用各下降了两个百分点：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 5. Box gross margin trends</p><p><blockquote>图5.盒子毛利率趋势</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92552ec3249e1c378987e476b7ff4bb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Box Q2 investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Box第二季度投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company also delivered $29.8 million of free cash flow in the quarter, up more than 2x y/y. Year to date, Box's free cash flow of $105.7 million has also doubled y/y and is at a 25% FCF margin.</p><p><blockquote>该公司本季度还实现了2980万美元的自由现金流，同比增长超过2倍。今年迄今为止，Box的自由现金流为1.057亿美元，同比也翻了一番，自由现金流利润率为25%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> Box falls into a category of stocks that I would consider \"guilt free.\" I don't need to feel anxious about buying this stock at market highs because I know its ultra-low valuation shields it from much further downside. On top of consistent low-teens growth, free cash flow expansion and ambitious long-term targets for continued FCF conversion, I'm staying long here.</p><p><blockquote>Box属于我认为“无罪”的股票类别。我不需要对在市场高点购买这只股票感到焦虑，因为我知道它的超低估值使其免受进一步下跌的影响。除了持续的低增长、自由现金流扩张以及持续自由现金流转换的雄心勃勃的长期目标之外，我还会在这里呆很长时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452035-box-guilt-free-stock-shielded-by-ultra-low-valuation\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BOX":"Box Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452035-box-guilt-free-stock-shielded-by-ultra-low-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177903834","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Box have fallen ~5% after a strong Q2 earnings report.\nRevenue growth accelerated to 12% y/y, and billings growth of 13% y/y indicates that revenue growth may even pick up slightly.\nThe company also delivered significant margin expansion and expects to hit the \"Rule of 40\" on a free cash flow basis by FY24.\nBox is still a very cheap stock at <4x forward revenue.\n\nNoam Galai/Getty Images Entertainment\nSo far, the year 2021 has been a promising one for Box(NYSE:BOX). The file storage and sharing service, one of the earlier SaaS companies to go public and gain a reputation for \"growth at all costs,\" has seen a 40% jump in its stock price year to date, more than doubling that of the S&P 500 - though that hardly makes up for Box's years of disappointing returns. This is the year, however, that investors have seemed to favor positioning themselves defensively with value stocks over growth, even with the market counting to sit at all-time highs.\nA slight crack in this positive rebound showed after Box reported Q2 results, which resulted in a ~5% dip despite strong top and bottom-line results. In my view, the dip is a strong buying opportunity in a company that has repeatedly shown its capacity to scale profitably and to retain growth in a software category that is often described as overly competitive.\nData by YCharts\nMy main investing strategy over the past year has been to find stocks that I feel comfortable buying at all-time market tops. The basic question here is: \"what stock will be relatively immune to, say, a ~20% market correction, by gist of the fact that it's already currently cheap to begin with?\" Box has always retained a strong value element, and today, with strong forward-looking estimates plus a still-depressed share price, that value element has never been brighter.\nAt current share prices near $25, Box trades at a market cap of $3.85 billion. After we net off the $829.4 million of cash and $366.5 million of debt on Box's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $3.39 billion.\nFor the current fiscal year, Box has guided to revenue of $856-$860 million, representing 12% y/y growth. For the next fiscal year (FY22), Wall Street analysts have given a consensus revenue target of $942.5 million for Box, representing 11% y/y growth (data from Yahoo Finance). This puts Box's valuation multiples at an ultra-modest multiple of:\n\n4.0x EV/FY21 revenue\n3.6x EV/FY22 revenue\n\nRecall as well that Box has maintained its goal of hitting a \"Rule of 40\" profile by FY24, which it defines as revenue growth plus free cash flow margin (the latter standing in for how most companies calculate the Rule of 40, with pro forma operating margin instead of FCF).\nFigure 1. Box Rule of 40\nSource: BoxQ2 investor presentation\nLet's tease that out quickly. If Box hits 11% y/y growth in the two years after FY22, then its revenue in that year would be $1.16 billion. The lower point of its guidance would suggest a 29% FCF margin (though it really expects to be at 40%+ growth plus FCF margin in that year), which would imply $336.4 million in FCF. Its current valuation, then, stands at a ~10x multiple of future cash flow (an even lower multiple would result if Box outperforms the lower end of its Rule of 40 guidance).\nAside from the free cash flow opportunity, here are the other reasons to be bullish on Box, as a refresher:\n\nNearly pure recurring revenue business that has shown resilience during macroeconomic shocks.Even amid the pandemic, Box has managed to retain its low double-digit/high single-digit revenue growth rates. Revenue growth in Q2 accelerated over Q1, showing sustained momentum.\nEnterprise orientation.Of all of its well-known competitors, Box is the only company that is enterprise-focused. The company touts its security features plus advanced capabilities like Box Skills as key distinguishers versus the likes of Dropbox.\nBox's product portfolio expansion has led to a $55 billion market.Despite competition, Box cites a massive $55 billion market across storage, content collaboration, and data security. That's a big enough space for multiple incumbents, and also suggests Box is only currently ~2% penetrated into this overall market. Recent portfolio additions like Box Sign have greatly expanded Box's potential.\n\nStay long here and use the dip as a buying opportunity.\nQ2 download\nLet's now cover Box's latest second-quarter results in greater detail. There were no major red flags to be found, in my mind, that warrants Box's ~5% drop.\nStarting with revenue: Box saw its revenue growth accelerate two points in the quarter, growing 12% y/y to $214.5 million, edging out over Wall Street's $213.0 million (+11% y/y) expectations. We note as well that this is Box's strongest quarter for revenue growth over the past five.\nFigure 2. Box revenue growth trends\nSource: Box Q2 investor presentation\nBox has also shown strong billings trends. Recall that in Q1, the company saw 24% y/y growth in billings, but against a very easy pandemic comp that saw deal signings materially slow down upon the immediate start of lockdowns. Yet billings were also strong in Q2 at 13% y/y growth, indicating that revenue growth may accelerate beyond 12% y/y growth in the near future. Note that Box's long-term operating plan calls for revenue growth between 12-16% y/y (so our expectations of 11% y/y are more on the conservative side). Box's deferred revenue is also up 16% y/y, indicating a strong \"pipeline\" of deals billed that are waiting to be recognized as revenue.\nFigure 3. Box billings trends\nSource: Box Q2 investor presentation\nThe company has noted that the rollout of the Box Sign product, Box's answer to the likes of DocuSign, has been a successful one. Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from founder and CEO Aaron Levie on the most recent Q2 earnings call detailing Box Sign traction and other go-to-market strengths:\n\n Initial response from customers has been very positive and we're rolling out Box Sign to all business and enterprise customers throughout this fall with a significant roadmap of innovation ahead [...]\n\n\n Building on the success of suites, in late July, we also announced a new simplified product addition for our enterprise customers called Enterprise Plus, which includes shield governance, relay, platform, Box Sign, the ability for large file uploads and enhanced support and consulting credits. You can see the success of our go-to-market efforts most clearly when looking at our Q2 customer expansion. For instance, one of the largest banks in the world purchases seven figure deal with multiple products, including key safe governance, relay shield and platform to support new use cases for Box, including claims processing and loan origination and a more secure virtual environment.\"\n\nTo Levie's last point, multi-product customers have become a defining feature of Box's growth strategy. 73% of Box's >$100k deals are now \"Box Suite\" deals, with custom pricing for a basket of Box services. Two years ago, when Box was still rolling out Suites, this rate stood closer to 10%.\nThe trend toward more products per customer has helped bring up Box's net revenue retention rates as well, which you can see in the chart below has improved to 106%, from the low 100% range during the pandemic:\nFigure 4. Box net retention rates\nSource: Box Q2 investor presentation\nBox also managed to retain these strong top-line trends while delivering substantial profitability performance. The company's gross margins improved 100bps to 74.5%, while pro forma operating expenses fell 4% as a percentage of revenue, driven by a two-point reduction each in sales and marketing and R&D expenses:\nFigure 5. Box gross margin trends\nSource: Box Q2 investor presentation\nThe company also delivered $29.8 million of free cash flow in the quarter, up more than 2x y/y. Year to date, Box's free cash flow of $105.7 million has also doubled y/y and is at a 25% FCF margin.\nKey takeaways\nBox falls into a category of stocks that I would consider \"guilt free.\" I don't need to feel anxious about buying this stock at market highs because I know its ultra-low valuation shields it from much further downside. On top of consistent low-teens growth, free cash flow expansion and ambitious long-term targets for continued FCF conversion, I'm staying long here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BOX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1757,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/819204245"}
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